On climatic analogs in paleoclimatic reconstruction

Many of the problems that have been discussed with regard to the analog approach to paleoclimatic reconstruction may be illustrated by consideration of basic principles and definitions, and the logical consquences thereof. Specific attention is directed toward the definition of the regional macroclimate as the modal microclimate and to a series of axioms: (1) There are various microclimates which depart more or less from the macroclimate in each terrestrial region. (2) Environment and climate change on time scales from near instantaneous to millions of years. (3) Climate is multidimensional (a vector), not a single scalar datum. (4) Biotic assemblage changes in response to environmental (including climatic) changes are expressed primarily in terms of reproductive success. One may conclude from the corollaries to these axioms that perfect analogs cannot be found for any Holocene climate, but that “partial analogs” (“transfer equations”) may still be used if allowance is made for shared variance.     

On different time scales of suspended matter dynamics in the Weser estuary

Long-term observations in the Weser estuary (Germany) between 1983 and 1997 provide insight into the response of the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) under a wide range of conditions. In this estuary the turbidity zone is closely tied to the mixing zone, and the positions of the ETM and the mixing zone vary with runoff. The intratidal suspended particulate matter (SPM) concentrations vary due to deposition during slack water periods, subsequent resubsequent and depletion of temporarily-formed and spatially-limited deposits during the following ebb or flood, and subsequent transport by tidal currents. The corresponding time history of SPM concentrations is remarkably constant over the years. Spring tide SPM concentrations can be twice the neap tide concentrations or even larger. A hysteresis in SPM levels between the falling and rising spring-neap cycle is attributed to enhanced resuspension by the stronger spring tidal currents. There is evidence that the ETM is pushed up-estuary during times of higher mean water levels due to storms. During river floods the ETM is flushed towards the outer estuary. If river floods and their decreasing parts occur during times of relatively high mean water levels, the ETM seems to be maintained in the outer estuary. If river floods and their decreasing parts occur during times of relatively low mean water levels, the ETM seems to loose inventory and may need up to half a year of non-event conditions to gain its former magnitude. During this time seasonal effects may be involved. Analyses of storm events and river floods have revealed that the conditions in the seaward boundary region play an equally important role for the SPM dynamics as those arising from the river.     

On the time scales of nonlinear instability in miscible displacement porous media flow

In this paper, we analyze the time scales associated with instable fingering induced by density contrasts in miscible displacement porous media flow. We perform numerical simulations of a two-dimensional domain with boundaries that are closed to flow and identify the three regimes of the dynamics, namely the development of a stable diffusive boundary layer, the onset and growth of instabilities, and the fully nonlinear dynamics. Special focus is given to the onset of the fully nonlinear regime. The results are generic in the sense that there are no parameters in the non-dimensional model problem. Large ensembles are studied and an error estimate is given based on the combined effect of numerical errors and sampling errors. The nonlinear time scales show a dependence on the size of initial perturbations. We estimate this size for three formations used for CO₂ storage and find that the onset of enhanced convective mixing is considerably delayed compared with the linear onset time.     

Multiple time scales in rainfall variability

Monthly rainfall data averaged over a selected number of stations in peninsular Malaysia with a long record was subjected to singular spectrum analysis to determine the different modes of fluctuations in the rainfall. The analysis highlights the presence of fluctuations in the QBO time scale to a very long term time scale of 18–5 years which is possibly linked to lunar tidal forcing. There is also evidence of the Malaysian rainfall responding to El-Nino Southern Oscillation. An oscillation with a 7 to 10 year cycle is also evident. The annual cycle as a regular periodic oscillation is well established by the SSA.     

Decomposition of wind speed fluctuations at different time scales

Understanding the inherent features of wind speed (variability on different time scales) has become critical for assured wind power availability, grid stability, and effective power management. The study utilizes the wavelet, autocorrelation, and FFT (fast Fourier transform) techniques to analyze and assimilate the fluctuating nature of wind speed data collected over a period of 29–42 years at different locations in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The analyses extracted the intrinsic features of wind speed, including the long-term mean wind speed and fluctuations at different time scales (periods), which is critical for meteorological purposes including wind power resource assessment and weather forecasting. The long-term mean wind speed varied between 1.45 m/s at Mecca station and 3.73 m/s at Taif. The annual variation is the largest (±0.97 m/s) at Taif and the smallest (±0.25 m/s) at Mecca. Similarly, the wind speed fluctuation with different periods was also discussed in detail. The spectral characteristics obtained using FFT reveal that Al-Baha, Najran, Taif and Wadi-Al-Dawasser having a sharp peak at a frequency f = 0.00269 (1/day) retain a more regular annual repetition of wind speed than Bisha, Khamis-Mushait, Madinah, Mecca, and Sharourah. Based on the autocorrelation analysis and FFT results, the stations are divided into three groups: (i) having strong annual modulations (Al-Baha, Najran, Taif and Wadi-Al-Dawasser), (ii) having comparable annual and half-yearly modulations (Bisha, Khamis-Mushait, and Mecca) and (iii) having annual modulation moderately prominent (Madinah and Sharourah).     

全新世两次典型突变事件下北半球季风降水的变化对比

利用通用气候系统模式（Community Climate System Model version 3,简称CCSM3）模拟的TraCE-21ka全新世以来的试验数据,分析了全新世两次突变事件（8.2 ka B.P.和4.2 ka B.P.）前后（分别为9200~8800 a B.P.、8800~8000 a B.P.和4800~4500 a B.P.、4500~4000 a B.P.）北半球夏季（6~8月）气温和季风降水的时空变化特征,并通过对比4个单因子（地球轨道参数、温室气体浓度、大陆冰盖和淡水注入）敏感性试验结果来分析北半球季风降水变化的成因。结果表明：1）两次典型突变事件前后欧亚大陆中高纬大范围的地表气温均明显下降,但是8.2 ka B.P.事件的降温程度大于4.2 ka B.P.事件,此外,在8.2 ka B.P.事件下北美中部有明显的增温,而在4.2 ka B.P.事件下该地区为降温;2）两次典型突变事件前后的北半球季风降水变化的空间分布类似,主要表现为北美季风区、北非季风区西部和印度季风降水一致减少,而东亚季风降水呈现"南涝北旱"的分布型;3）两次典型突变事件前后环流场变化的空间型相似,但是4.2 ka B.P.事件的环流强度变化明显弱于8.2 ka B.P.事件;4）8.2 ka B.P.事件下北半球季风降水变化主要是淡水注入所导致,而4.2 ka B.P.事件主要由于地球轨道参数和气候系统内部变率的共同影响。     

On glaciations and their causes

The Pleistocene, and possibly also other, older glaciations, are believed to have resulted from a combination of terrestrial and astronomical factors. Preceding glaciation, orogenesis and uplift increased the Earth's albedo and decreased temperature. Lowering of temperature below a certain threshold value permitted the astronomical cause to become operative. While smaller glaciations may have been largely or entirely patterned by the astronomical cause or causes, terrestrial factors had an important effect in determining the course of the larger glaciations. Two time-delay factors are believed to have been responsible for the oscillatory pattern of glaciation: these are plastic iceflow, and crustal warping.Summer insolation variation in the high latitudes is believed to be a more likely astronomical cause than variation of solar radiation.     

Quantifying time scales of pedogenic calcrete formation using U-series disequilibria

Time scales of pedogenic calcrete development are quantified by subsampling carbonate from within a mature (stage V) pedogenic calcrete profile from southeast Spain and dating the material by U-series disequilibria. The location of the earliest and latest cements can be estimated by comparing previous studies of calcrete morphological development with micromorphological analysis of the study profile. Carbonate was sampled and dated from three locations within the profile: (1) below the lower surface of clasts within the hardpan (representing the earliest cement present—207±11 ka), (2) from the centre of cement filled pores within the hardpan (reflecting the final plugging of the calcrete hardpan—155±9 ka) and (3) from the laminar calcrete overlying the hardpan (representing the latest cement—112±15 ka). These results show that the hardpan took between 73 and 31 ka to form, whilst the mature stage V profile took between 121 and 69 ka to form. This is the first time that rates of mature calcrete development have been established by direct radiometric dating of the authigenic carbonate. The technique is appropriate for dating mature calcretes in dryland regions worldwide and offers the opportunity of increasing our understanding of the spatial and temporal variability in rates of pedogenic calcrete development.     

A comparison of Indian and African monsoon variability at different time scales

A review is given of the summer monsoon systems in Africa and India, and of their comparison at different time scales. Features of the circulation are described first, including the main respective meteorological centres of action controlling the annual cycle of the rain bands over these two regions. The main elements of the atmospheric intraseasonal variability are then presented, which controls in particular the onset of these two monsoon systems. Then the sensitivity of these two monsoon systems to oceanic and continental surface conditions in the context of interannual variability is discussed and compared. Consequences in term of predictability are commented. Finally, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC4) scenarios of the future climate over these two regions are presented.     

黄河平滩流量的多时间尺度现象

受气候系统影响的水文系统具有多时间尺度变化规律。由于平滩流量与水沙条件变化关系密切,也必然会呈现出多时间尺度演变规律。基于黄河下游主要测站1950~2007年平滩流量及水沙资料,利用小波分析原理分析了平滩流量、流量和含沙量序列的多时间尺度变化特征,以及不同时间尺度下水沙序列与平滩流量序列之间的相关关系。结果表明,黄河下游主要测站的平滩流量序列存在5~6年和19~20年的主要时间尺度,且水沙条件多尺度变化规律与平滩流量有密切关系。此外,对黄河上游和渭河支流主要测站的平滩流量与水沙条件的多时间尺度进行了分析,发现不同河段的平滩流量序列与含沙量序列存在不同的相位差,且相位差大小随含沙量增大而减少。揭示的黄河平滩流量与水沙条件的多时间尺度变化规律,可为研究河床演变的多时间尺度现象提供参考。     

Sediment suspension under waves and currents: time scales and vertical structure

Field measurements of the vertical structure of near-bed suspended sediment concentrations were obtained from arrays of fast response optical backscatter suspended solids sensors to examine the time-dependent response of sediment resuspension to waves and currents and the constraints imposed by bedforms. Data were recorded from both a nonbarred, marine shoreface and a barred lacustrine shoreface, under both shoaling and breaking waves (significant heights of 0·25–1·50m; peak periods of 3 and 8 s) and in water depths of 0·5–5·0 m. Sediment concentrations are positively correlated with increasing elevation above the bed, but lagged in time. The time lag varies directly with separation distance between measurement locations and inversely with the horizontal component of the near-bed oscillatory velocity. Both the presence of wave groups and the settling velocities of the sediment particules in suspension influence the temporal changes in concentration at a given elevation. Sediment concentrations appear to respond more slowly to the incident wind-wave forcing with distance away from the bed as a result of two factors: (1) the sequential increase in concentration induced by a succession of large waves in a group; and (ii) the relative increase in finer sediments with smaller settling velocities. Bedforms interact with the near-bed horizontal currents to impose a distinct constraint upon the timing of suspension events relative to the phase of the fluid motion, and, therefore, the vertical structure of the suspended sediment concentration at a range of time scales. The near-bed concentrations appear to be strongly dependent upon the vertical convection of sediment associated with the ejection from the wave boundary layer of separation vortices generated in the lee of ripple crests. Concentration gradients in the presence of vortex ripples are large, as are the correlation between concentrations measured at different elevations within the fluid.     

云南高海拔湖泊对末次冰消期气候突变的响应

气象观测资料表明,在当前全球暖化背景下高海拔地区的增温速率更快,其气候对全球气候变化的响应更为敏感。但是,高海拔地区如何响应快速气候事件,由于古气候古环境重建资料在高海拔地区较少,这一问题还没有很好的回答。为此选择云南省高山湖泊错恰湖为研究对象（海拔约3960 m）,分析了湖泊沉积岩芯（深度范围90~244 cm）中正构烷烃的分布特征,重建了末次冰消期（19000~9500 a B.P.）沉积物有机质来源的变化,进而推断古气候演变。在17800~17000 a B.P.,错恰湖有机质以陆源输入为主,水生贡献相对减少,气候以暖湿为主;在17000~15100 a B.P.,水生有机质的贡献的比例增加,气候以冷干为主;在15100~12700 a B.P.,湖泊沉积有机质的陆源贡献增加,水生贡献相对减少,气候相对暖湿;在12700~11400 a B.P.时段,湖泊沉积水生有机质来源相对增多,气候相对冷干。与其他区域和全球气候记录对比发现,错恰湖的沉积记录指示的气候变化事件,受高纬冰量以及北大西洋驱动的西南季风突变所影响,在末次冰消期记录的4个明显的千年尺度气候事件,在时间上与First warmth、H1、B-A和YD事件相对应。与云南地区其他湖泊记录对比发现,小型湖泊或高海拔湖泊对这些全球快速气候事件的响应更加敏感。

     

末次冰消期滇西地区气候突变事件:湖泊孢粉记录

在末次冰消期总体持续增温的过程中,全球气候经历了一系列以"快速增温/降温"为主要特征的千-数十年尺度的突变事件。由于这些气候突变事件具有明显的高频特性,需要在全球范围不同地区开展更多高分辨率的古气候研究,用于进行突变事件的对比和机制的探讨。本研究对比滇西南腾冲青海湖、滇西北泸沽湖和高山湖泊天才湖约2万以来的孢粉、炭屑记录,揭示了中国滇西地区末次冰消期的植被演替与气候变化历史,探讨了末次冰消期存在的气候突变事件。结果表明,滇西地区末次冰消期开始转暖发生在约19 ka（1 ka=1000 cal.a B.P.）;冰消期开始以后,滇西地区气候普遍依次在17.5±0.5~15.2±0.1 ka期间、15.2±0.1~14.3±0.1 ka期间、14.3±0.1~12.9±0.1 ka期间和12.9±0.1~11.7±0.2 ka期间存在冷干-逐渐变暖变湿-明显更暖湿-温度湿度略有下降等这几个突变事件,它们在时间上分别对应于H1冷事件、波令前增暖期、B/A暖期和YD冷事件;滇西地区比较一致地在11.7±0.2 ka进入全新世。除此之外,滇西北地区在约17.7~17.0 ka期间可能还存在一次短暂的较明显的暖湿期。对末次冰消期气候变化机制的探讨认为,末次冰消期开始转暖及以后逐渐增温的趋势主要受夏季太阳辐射量从约20 ka逐渐增加,到11 ka左右达到峰值的控制;而末次冰消期发生的气候突变事件如H1冷事件、波令前增暖期、B/A暖期和YD冷事件主要是受大西洋温盐环流的影响,同时温室气体浓度的变化也起了重要的调制作用。     

A multi-proxy record of abrupt cooling events during the Windermere Interstadial at Crudale Meadow,Orkney, UK

Three clearly defined abrupt cooling events (ACEs) can be observed within Greenland Interstadial (GI)-1 in the Greenland ice-core records. However, the spatial variation in amplitude and timing of these ACEs is poorly understood due to the paucity of well-dated records with quantified temperature reconstructions. This study presents high-resolution chironomid-inferred July air temperature (T_Jul) and oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O) records from Crudale Meadow (Orkney Isles, UK). Three centennial-scale ACEs punctuate the Windermere Interstadial at Crudale Meadow. The largest ACE shows an amplitude of 5.4 °C and a 1% isotopic decline and is centred on ~14.0 ka bp , consistent with the timing of the GI-1d event in the Greenland stratigraphy. The two other observed ACEs are of smaller magnitude and are centred on ~13.6 ka bp and ~13.2 ka bp , with these smaller magnitude events tentatively correlated with the GI-1cii and GI-1b events, respectively, but lack sufficient chronological constraint to fully assess their timing. When comparing the Crudale Meadow record with other locations in the British Isles a strong relationship can be observed between the magnitude of T_Jul cooling and latitude, with a reduced signal in more southerly locations, indicating that oceanic forcing may be a key driver of the ACEs.     

On the importance of continuity of magnitude scales

To describe an individual earthquake or the seismicity of a region, simple parameters such as magnitudes are necessary. In seismicity studies observations for as long as possible time intervals should be at disposal and subsequently the continuity of the parameters' quality should be guaranteed. M_GR or M_S can be such parameters. m_b(sp) of USGS and ISC is another one, but it has been accumulated only since the 1960s. An international proposal to introduce or revive classical m_b asks to change the traditional procedure of measuring the P maximum within a few seconds from the P onset. Some confusion appears to exist for recent m_b-data in EDR of USGS. It is strongly hoped that the traditional procedure of USGS for m_b(sp)-determination will not be discontinued and that the new m_b will be introduced only as an additional parameter.     

Ti diffusion in quartz inclusions: implications for metamorphic time scales

Quartz inclusions in garnet from samples collected from the staurolite zone in central New England are zoned in cathodoluminescence (CL). The CL intensity is interpreted to be a proxy for Ti concentration and the zoning attributed to Ti diffusion into the quartz grains driven by Ti exchange between quartz and enclosing garnet as a function of changing temperature. The CL zoning has been interpreted using a numerical diffusion model to constrain the time scales over which the diffusion has occurred. Temperature–time histories are sensitive to the presumed peak temperature but not to other model parameters. The total time of the metamorphic heating and cooling cycle from around 450?°C to the peak temperature (550–600?°C) back to 450?°C is surprisingly short and encompasses only 0.2–2 million years for peak temperatures of 600–550?°C. The metamorphism was accompanied by large-scale nappe and dome formation, and it is suggested that this occurred as a consequence of in-sequence thrusting resulting in a mid-crustal ductile duplex structure.     

Morphology and paleoclimatic significance of Pleistocene Lake Bonneville spits

Pleistocene Lake Bonneville of western Utah contains a variety of spits associated with shorelines and other features that formed between 21,000 and 12,000 ¹⁴C yr BP. Field studies in the low-lying mountain ranges of the central portion of Lake Bonneville identified 17 spits of various types. The spits are connected to small mountain ranges and islands, vary in size from 0.02 to 0.5 km², and are composed of coarse-grained, well-rounded, poorly-sorted sedimentary material. Sixteen of the 17 spits have a northeasterly to southwesterly orientation implying that winds were from the northwest to northeast, approximately 180° out of phase with modern winds in the eastern Great Basin. Lake Bonneville spit orientation is best explained as the result of persistent northerly winds caused by the high atmospheric pressure cell of the continental ice sheet and passage of low pressure extratropical storms south of the lake. Similar, strong persistent winds are a common feature of modern continental ice sheets and passing low pressure systems. If so, the North American jet stream tracked south of Lake Bonneville as recently as 12,000 ¹⁴C yr BP, well past the height of the last glacial maximum.     

The comparison analysis of Chinese public perception of earthquakes on different time scales

China has suffered from severe earthquake disasters in recent years. In order to explore the impact of severe earthquakes on public risk perception on different time scales, four surveys were conducted twice each after the severe Wenchuan and Yushu earthquakes. t tests were performed between two consecutive surveys to explore the change of public risk attitudes. The results demonstrated that after the two severe earthquakes, the public seismic risk acceptance has increased over time, and the comparison between pre- and post-Yushu earthquake illustrated that the severe disaster had more impact on vulnerable population such as females, children and low-income people. Moreover, linear regression models were employed to find the determining factors of public acceptance towards earthquake risks. It was discovered that the public perceived earthquake effect had significant negative relationship with seismic risk acceptance, and public trust towards local government had positive relationship with the risk acceptance. This study could help government to gain better understanding of public mental status and take more effective disaster preparedness measures when preventing and responding to a severe earthquake.