近千年东亚夏季风演变*

在分析东亚地区夏季海平面气压场与中国东部6区域干湿指数关系的基础上,重建了公元960—2000年近千年东亚地区夏季海平面气压场的格点资料,并对重建效果进行了检验。同时,依据重建的海平面气压场资料定义了近千年东亚夏季风强度指数,探讨了近千年东亚夏季风的变化特征。结果表明：（1）重建的近千年东亚地区的海平面气压场具有一定的可信度,它为研究更长时间尺度的东亚夏季风变化特征提供了基础;（2）东亚夏季风指数存在60～70 a、30～40 a、10～20 a的显著周期变化;（3）近千年东亚夏季风的强度指数主要经历过9次明显的趋势突变。其中,13世纪30年代东亚夏季风的强度指数经历了最显著的振动。     

Environmental changes in the northern Altai during the last millennium documented in Lake Teletskoye pollen record

A high-resolution pollen record from Lake Teletskoye documents the climate-related vegetation history of the northern Altai Mountain region during the last millennium. Siberian pine taiga with Scots pine, fir, spruce, and birch dominated the vegetation between ca. AD 1050 and 1100. The climate was similar to modern. In the beginning of the 12th century, birch and shrub alder increased. Lowered pollen concentrations and simultaneous peaks in herbs (especially Artemisia and Poaceae), ferns, and charcoal fragments point to colder and more arid climate conditions than before, with frequent fire events. Around AD 1200, regional climate became warmer and more humid than present, as revealed by an increase of Siberian pine and decreases of dry herb taxa and charcoal contents. Climatic conditions were rather stable until ca. AD 1410. An increase of Artemisia pollen may reflect slightly drier climate conditions between AD 1410 and 1560. Increases in Alnus, Betula, Artemisia, and Chenopodiaceae pollen and in charcoal particle contents may reflect further deterioration of climate conditions between AD 1560 and 1810, consistent with the Little Ice Age. After AD 1850 the vegetation gradually approached the modern one, in conjunction with ongoing climate warming.     

Lacustrine sediments provide geochemical evidence of environmental change during the last millennium in southeastern Brazil

A 172 cm-long sediment core was collected from a small pristine lake situated within a centripetal drainage basin in a tropical karst environment (Ribeira River valley, southeastern Brazil) in order to investigate the paleoenvironmental record provided by the lacustrine geochemistry. Sediments derived from erosion of the surrounding cambisoils contain quartz, kaolinite, mica, chlorite and goethite. Accelerator mass spectroscopy (AMS) ¹⁴C dating provided the geochronological framework. Three major sedimentary units were identified based on the structure and color of the sediments: Unit III from 170 to140 cm (1030±60–730±60 yr BP), Unit II from 140 to 90 cm (730±60–360±60 yr BP) and Unit I from 90 to 0 cm (360±60–0 yr BP). Results of major and trace element concentrations were analysed through multivariate statistical techniques. Factor analysis provided three factors accounting for 72.4% of the total variance. F1 and F2 have high positive loadings from K, Ba, Cs, Rb, Sr, Sc, Th, light rare earth element (LREE), Fe, Cr, Ti, Zr, Hf and Ta, and high negative loadings from Mg, Co, Cu, Zn, Br and loss on ignition (LOI). F3, with positive loadings from V and non-metals As and Sb, accounts for a low percentage (9.7%) of the total variance, being therefore of little interpretative use. The profile distribution of F1 scores reveals negative values in Units I and III, and positive values in Unit II, meaning that K, Ba, Cs, Rb, Sr, Sc, Th, LREE, Fe, Cr, Ti, Zr, Hf and Ta are relatively more concentrated in Unit II, and Mg, Co, Cu, Zn and Br are relatively more abundant in Units I and III. The observed fluctuations in the geochemical composition of the sediments are consistent with slight variations of the erosion intensity in the catchment area as a possible response to variations of climatic conditions during the last millennium.     

过去千年中国东部持续性严重干旱事件的模拟研究

文章利用CESM1.1（公共地球系统模式）模式过去千年集合试验结果,对模拟的过去千年中国东部持续性严重干旱事件的时空特征及发生机制进行了初步分析。模式模拟出过去千年中国东部发生了7次持续性严重干旱事件,分别为883~910年、951~977年、1253~1305年、1327~1346年、1471~1488年、1587~1610年和1688~1699年干旱事件,其中仅1471~1488年干旱事件与中国东部旱涝指数对应较好,表明模式对中国东部干旱事件的模拟能力较低。这7次干旱事件均与模拟的ENSO（厄尔尼诺-南方涛动）负位相状态相对应,揭示ENSO可能对中国东部干旱事件的发生起了非常重要的作用。模拟分析结果显示,1253~1305年干旱事件前期可能主要受火山活动驱动,后期则可能受到太阳活动和自然内部变率的影响。另外,1587~1610年干旱事件后期可能也受到火山活动的影响;883~910年和951~977年干旱事件则完全受自然内部变率的影响。对1327~1346年、1471~1488年和1688~1699年这3次干旱事件,无法分辨外强迫和内部变率ENSO的各自贡献。

     

Precipitation variations and possible forcing factors on the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau during the last millennium

Understanding precipitation variation, drought and flood history, and their associated forcing mechanisms are important to human society. In this study, five moisture-sensitive tree-ring width chronologies are used to represent variations in precipitation over the past millennium on the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau (NETP). We find a strong coherency between chronologies in the NETP, indicating a common response to regional climate during the last millennium. The first principal component of the five chronologies (PC1) correlates significantly with regional precipitation and can thus be used as an indicator of regional precipitation variations. Dry spells, even more severe than the 1920s drought, occurred during AD 1139–1152, 1294–1309, 1446–1503 and 1708–1726. Previous studies in this area using other proxies also identified these droughts. Multi-Taper spectral analysis demonstrates significant periodicities at 205 yr and 73 yr, plus a range of ~ 2 yr cycles, suggesting possible linkage with solar variation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). PC1 also shows coherent patterns with solar irradiance variation: the precipitation tends to reach low values during the well-known solar minimum.     

基于统计-动力反演的近千年印度夏季风驱动机制探讨

过去1000年的气候变化是最近数十年人类活动影响加强情况下全球气候变化的自然背景, 其变化规律和驱动机制的研究对预测未来气候变化有着重要意义。非线性统计-动力反演方法结合了统计模型和动力模型的优点, 能充分利用观测数据反演系统各因子之间的相互关系。本文尝试应用非线性统计-动力反演方法建立印度夏季风的动力方程, 为研究印度夏季风的驱动机制提供量化参考。经研究发现:近千年印度夏季风系统是复杂非线性动力系统; 工业革命前印度夏季风变化的主要驱动力是北大西洋海表温, 其次是温室气体(N2O和CO2)浓度与阿拉伯海海表温、ENSO及太阳辐照度等的相互作用; 在工业革命后期, 温室气体(CH4、N2O和CO2)浓度及其与北大西洋海表温、太阳辐照度、ENSO及北极温度等的相互作用成为印度夏季风的主要驱动力; 单因子甲烷和N2O是印度夏季风的驱动力, 而它们的非线性相互作用(两个因子的交叉项)却是稳定作用力。总体来说, 工业革命前, 北大西洋海表温度是印度夏季风的主要驱动因子; 工业革命后, 温室气体则成为主要的驱动因子。     

末次冰消期滇西地区气候突变事件:湖泊孢粉记录

在末次冰消期总体持续增温的过程中,全球气候经历了一系列以"快速增温/降温"为主要特征的千-数十年尺度的突变事件。由于这些气候突变事件具有明显的高频特性,需要在全球范围不同地区开展更多高分辨率的古气候研究,用于进行突变事件的对比和机制的探讨。本研究对比滇西南腾冲青海湖、滇西北泸沽湖和高山湖泊天才湖约2万以来的孢粉、炭屑记录,揭示了中国滇西地区末次冰消期的植被演替与气候变化历史,探讨了末次冰消期存在的气候突变事件。结果表明,滇西地区末次冰消期开始转暖发生在约19 ka（1 ka=1000 cal.a B.P.）;冰消期开始以后,滇西地区气候普遍依次在17.5±0.5~15.2±0.1 ka期间、15.2±0.1~14.3±0.1 ka期间、14.3±0.1~12.9±0.1 ka期间和12.9±0.1~11.7±0.2 ka期间存在冷干-逐渐变暖变湿-明显更暖湿-温度湿度略有下降等这几个突变事件,它们在时间上分别对应于H1冷事件、波令前增暖期、B/A暖期和YD冷事件;滇西地区比较一致地在11.7±0.2 ka进入全新世。除此之外,滇西北地区在约17.7~17.0 ka期间可能还存在一次短暂的较明显的暖湿期。对末次冰消期气候变化机制的探讨认为,末次冰消期开始转暖及以后逐渐增温的趋势主要受夏季太阳辐射量从约20 ka逐渐增加,到11 ka左右达到峰值的控制;而末次冰消期发生的气候突变事件如H1冷事件、波令前增暖期、B/A暖期和YD冷事件主要是受大西洋温盐环流的影响,同时温室气体浓度的变化也起了重要的调制作用。     

Internal and forced climate variability during the last millennium: a model-data comparison using ensemble simulations

A three-dimensional climate model was used to perform 25 simulations over the last millennium, which are driven by the main natural and anthropogenic forcing. The results are compared to available reconstructions in order to evaluate the relative contribution of internal and forced variability during this period. At hemispheric and nearly hemispheric scale, the impact of the forcing is clear in all the simulations and knowing the forced response provides already a large amount of information about the behaviour of the climate system. Besides, at regional and local scales, the forcing has only a weak contribution to the simulated variability compared to internal variability. This result could be used to refine our conception of Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age (MWP and LIA). They were hemispheric-scale phenomena, since the temperature averaged over the Northern Hemisphere was, respectively generally higher/lower during those periods because of a stronger/weaker external forcing at that time. Nevertheless, at local-scale, the sign of the internal temperature variations determines to what extent the forced response will be actually visible or even masked by internal noise. Because of this role of internal variability, synchronous peak temperatures during the MWP or LIA between different locations are unlikely.     

Hydrological response of a dryland ephemeral river to southern African climatic variability during the last millennium

A long-term flood record from the Buffels River, the largest ephemeral river of NW South Africa (9250 km²), was reconstructed based on interpretation of palaeoflood, documentary and instrumental rainfall data. Palaeoflood data were obtained at three study reaches, with preserved sedimentary evidence indicating at least 25 large floods during the last 700 yr. Geochronological control for the palaeoflood record was provided by radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating. Annual resolution was obtained since the 19th century using the overlapping documentary and instrumental records. Large floods coincided in the past within three main hydroclimatic settings: (1) periods of regular large flood occurrence (1 large flood/~30 yr) under wetter and cooler prevailing climatic conditions (AD 1600–1800), (2) decreasing occurrence of large floods (1 large flood/~100 yr) during warmer conditions (e.g., AD 1425–1600 and after 1925), and (3) periods of high frequency of large floods (~ 4–5 large floods in 20–30 yr) coinciding with wetter conditions of decadal duration, namely at AD 1390–1425, 1800–1825 and 1915–1925. These decadal-scale periods of the highest flood frequency seem to correspond in time with changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, as inferred when comparing their onset and distribution with temperature proxies in southern Africa.     

Climatic change during the last 4000 years in the southern Tarim Basin,Xinjiang, northwest China

In this study, a ca. 4000 cal. yr ancient lacustrine (or wetland) sediment record at the southern margin of Tarim Basin is used to reconstruct the history of climate change. Six radiocarbon dates on organic matter were obtained. δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C of carbonate, pollen and sediment particle size were analysed for climate proxies. The proxies indicate that a drier climate prevailed in the area before ca. 1010 BC and during period 1010 BC–AD 500 climate then changed rapidly and continuously from dry to moist, but after about AD 500 climate generally shows dry condition. Several centennial‐scale climatic events were revealed, with the wettest spell during AD 450–550, and a relatively wetter interval between AD 930–1030. Pollen results show that regional climate may influence human agricultural activities. Spectral analysis of mean grain size (MGS) proxy reveals statistically pronounced cyclic signals, such as ca. 200 yr, ca. 120 yr, ca. 90 yr, ca. 45 yr and ca. 33 or 30 yr, which may be associated with solar activities, implying that solar variability plays an important role in the decadal‐ and centennial‐scale climate variations in the study area. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

最近13万年以来洛川黄土剖面中Porg/Pinorg分布及其古气候指示意义

对末次间冰期以来洛川黄土进行了有机磷／无机磷(Porg／Pinorg)比值测量。结果表明，黄土中Porg／Pinorg比值的分布主要受降水量和温度的影响，是有机磷和无机磷在不同时期随气候变化相互转化的结果。此指标的变化与黄土—古土壤的变化大致相关，与洛川黄土磁化率曲线相一致，与深海氧同位素可进行很好的对比。此比值与夏季风强弱程度乃至与全球气候变化有密切的联系。Porg／Pinorg比值可作为一种反映古气候环境变迁的新指标。     

Climatic and hydrologic variability during the past millennium in the eastern Rocky Mountains and northern Great Plains of western Canada

Modelling of tree-ring δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O data from the Columbia Icefield area in the eastern Rocky Mountains of western Canada provides fuller understanding of climatic and hydrologic variability over the past 1000 yr in this region, based on reconstruction of changes in growth season atmospheric relative humidity (RH_grs), winter temperature (T_win) and the precipitation δ¹⁸O-T_win relation. The Little Ice Age (~ AD 1530s-1890s) is marked by low RH_grs and T_win and a δ¹⁸O-T_win relation offset from that of the present, reflecting enhanced meridional circulation and persistent influence of Arctic air masses. Independent proxy hydrologic evidence suggests that snowmelt sustained relatively abundant streamflow at this time in rivers draining the eastern Rockies. In contrast, the early millennium was marked by higher RH_grs and T_win and a δ¹⁸O-T_win relation like that of the 20th century, consistent with pervasive influence of Pacific air masses because of strong zonal circulation. Especially mild conditions prevailed during the “Medieval Climate Anomaly” ~ AD 1100-1250, corresponding with evidence for reduced discharge in rivers draining the eastern Rockies and extensive hydrological drought in neighbouring western USA.     

Correlation between the oxygen isotope record from Dasuopu ice core and the Asian Southwest Monsoon during the last millennium

Long high-resolution proxy records are valuable for understanding Asian Southwest Monsoon (ASM) dynamics on decadal to centennial timescales. A millennium long δ¹⁸O ice core record from the central Himalayas provides an opportunity to study the ASM variability on decadal to centennial timescales. The Dasuopu ice core δ¹⁸O record indicates that a relatively warm period corresponding with the Medieval Warm Period lasted from AD 1140s to 1390s, a notable warming trend is apparent from 1800s to 1990s, and several cool periods occurred between AD 1010–1130s, 1290–1330s, 1400–1460s, 1520s, 1590–1630s, 1740s, and 1770–1790s. Comparisons with other high-resolution monsoon proxy records from the Arabian Sea, south Oman, and southern China reveal a high correspondence between temperature changes in the central Himalayas and the ASM variability during the last 1000 years. A pronounced warming trend since AD 1670 coincides with an abrupt transition from a weak to a strong intensity of the ASM. The thermal conditions in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan Plateau and associated glacial boundary conditions may have been predominantly responsible for variations of the ASM intensity and for a latitudinal movement in the mean position of the ITCZ on decadal to centennial timescales.     

过去千年年代和百年尺度东亚夏季风变化的模拟分析

利用通用地球系统模式过去千年集成（CESM-LME）试验数据,在验证模式模拟能力的基础上,分析了过去千年（850~1849年）年代和百年尺度东亚夏季风变化及其与中国东部夏季降水的关系。总体上,东亚夏季风在过去千年逐渐减弱,并伴随着年代际和百年尺度波动。在变化趋势上,过去千年土地利用不断增加、后期火山爆发偏多和地球轨道参数变化联合引起欧亚大陆中高纬表面温度降低、东亚区域海陆热力差异减小,东亚夏季风相应减弱;在年代际尺度上,东亚夏季风变化与太平洋年代际振荡有关,后者通过影响北太平洋和中国东部表面温度来改变东亚区域海陆热力差异和夏季风强度;百年尺度东亚夏季风波动受多种因子共同调制,期间欧亚大陆中高纬和北太平洋表面温度变化明显。与此同时,过去千年东亚夏季风逐渐减弱伴随着中国东部降水由南向北呈现负—正—负的变化趋势;在年代际和百年尺度上,东亚夏季风偏强时,中国东部降水表现为南旱北涝型分布。

     

Climatic fluctuations in the Central Region of Argentina in the last 1000 years

Several lines of evidence concur to explain the climatic fluctuations that occurred in the central region of Argentina during the last millennium. The investigation was advanced in two ways: on the one hand, a geographic model was elaborated; and on the other, a temporal sequence for various climatic situations was developed. During the last 1000 yr, two significant events related to global changes occurred: the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). The Medieval Warm Period was characterized by a humid and warm climate in the plains and recession of the Andean glaciers. In contrast, during the Little Ice Age the plains had temperate, semi-arid to arid climates, and Andean glaciers advanced. In the western region, the fluvial-lacustrine systems were more extensive during cold events (LIA) and contracted during warm events (MWP). In contrast, in the eastern region the fluvial-lacustrine systems showed a diminution during cold events and increased their extent during warm episodes. During the LIA, the occurrence of two cold pulses separated by an intermediate period has been established. The first cold pulse extended from the beginning of the XV century to the end of the XVI century; the second cold pulse (the main one) began at the beginning of the XVIII century and lasted until the beginning of the XIX century. Both cold pulses can be related to the Spörer and Maunder Minimums respectively. These climatic changes modified the landforms, influenced the vegetation distribution and were one of the main factors for control of human activities during the last 1000 yr.     

Climatic changes during the last 35,000 years as indicated by land, sea, and air data

Detailed climatic records from land (glaciation curves, fossil records, etc.), sea (eustatic changes, deep-ses date), and air (Greenland 0¹⁸ curve) are almost identical for the last 35,000 years. This cannot be a mere coincidence: it indicates that even minor fluctuations are caused by global climatic changes. The various records seem to be easily correlated with each other. The Last Ice Age is characterized by drastic changes between colder and warmer periods. The Present (Flandrian) Interglacial (Holocene Epoch) is also characterized by climatic fluctuations, although of minor amplitude. Analysis of peaks and bottoms in six Atlantic deep-sea cores gives a climatic sequence identical to the eustatic transgression/regression sequence, indicating the recording of global short-term warm/cold fluctuations. From these fluctuations, the climatic cyclicity was calculated. Two drastically frequency-changing cycles were found, one varying from 230 to 1,000 years and one from 1,000 to 3,600 years. A third cycle of 21,000 years was also estabished. The transition from the Last Ice Age to the Present Interglacial is marked by three major steps towards interglacial conditions; viz. at 12,7000, 10,000 and 9,300 radiocarbon years B. P. The 10,000 boundary has earler been suggested as the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary.     

Rapid changes in the level of Kluane Lake in Yukon Territory over the last millennium

The level of Kluane Lake, the largest lake in Yukon Territory, was lower than at present during most of the Holocene. The lake rose rapidly in the late seventeenth century to a level 12 m above present, drowning forest and stranding driftwood on a conspicuous high-stand beach, remnants of which are preserved at the south end of the lake. Kluane Lake fell back to near its present level by the end of the eighteenth century and has fluctuated within a range of about 3 m over the last 50 yr. The primary control on historic fluctuations in lake level is the discharge of Slims River, the largest source of water to the lake. We use tree ring and radiocarbon ages, stratigraphy and sub-bottom acoustic data to evaluate two explanations for the dramatic changes in the level of Kluane Lake. Our data support the hypothesis of Hugh Bostock, who suggested in 1969 that the maximum Little Ice Age advance of Kaskawulsh Glacier deposited large amounts of sediment in the Slims River valley and established the present course of Slims River into Kluane Lake. Bostock argued that these events caused the lake to rise and eventually overflow to the north. The overflowing waters incised the Duke River fan at the north end of Kluane Lake and lowered the lake to its present level. This study highlights the potentially dramatic impacts of climate change on regional hydrology during the Little Ice Age in glacierised mountains.     

An annually resolved bristlecone pine carbon isotope chronology for the last millennium

We present the first near millennium-length, annually resolved stable isotope record from bristlecone pines (Pinus longaeva, D.K Bailey). The carbon isotope ratios from the cellulose of seven trees from the White Mountains of California, corrected for anthropogenic changes in atmospheric chemistry, are used to reconstruct growing season (June through August) precipitation back to AD 1085. Extremely negative isotope results are strongly correlated with proposed severest El Niño events over the last 500 yr, and similar values in the first half of the millennium are used to reconstruct a further 13 strong El Niño events, concentrated in the 12th Century and the mid 13th and 14th Centuries. Ring-width chronologies from adjacent sites in the White Mountains demonstrate a high degree of decadal covariance with the δ¹³C series, although there are several periods of notable divergence.