One-dimensional checkerboards and blending heights

We analyze the checkerboard problem of many alternating surfaces with different properties, on scales up to (say) 3,000 m. Power-law representations of the vertical profiles of mean wind speed and eddy diffusivity lead to solutions in terms of Kelvin and trigonometric functions.These solutions are used to determine blending heights (_*), where deviations from the mean of concentration, or of vertical flux density, fall to some small fraction, , of their value at the surface. Values of _*are important for regional and larger-scale meteorological models. In smaller scale micrometeorological studies, they may serve also as the top levels of surface boundary layers.An important result for both theoretical and experimental contexts is that deviations of flux persist with elevation much more strongly than those of concentration, so that, in general, _* should be based on flux rather than concentration. Representative values of _*, for = 0.05, are of order 5 and 30 m for surface pattern wavelengths of 10² and 10³ m, respectively. Values of _* are robust to changes in adopted power-law indices, and are independent of wind speed. Surface roughness has a mild but calculable effect.     

Blending and internal boundary-layer heights, and shear stress

Previous studies of blending heightsfor scalars, using periodic solutions of atmosphericconvection-diffusion equations, raise two questions. 1. What is the relation between growth of the internalboundary-layer height downwind of a step in surfaceconditions, and the increase of blending height withdownwind pattern wavelength? 2. Can the approach beextended to shear stress? The answers are: 1. Thedependence of boundary-layer height on fetch has thesame functional form as that of blending height onwavelength; but it is greater by a factor of about1.9. 2. Representing eddy diffusivity as the productof mean windspeed and a power of height gives a linearhorizontal momentum equation. A further approximationgives a convection-diffusion equation for shearstress, analogous to those used previously forscalars.     

融合临近预报技术探讨

融合临近预报系统是预报业务中将雷达回波外推和高分辨率数值模式等多种临近预报系统结合起来生成预报产品的预报系统。文章介绍了国内外几个主要的融合临近预报系统, 包括其所采用的外推预报系统、数值预报系统、融合技术以及各融合临近预报系统的优点及其局限性。在此基础上设计了一个简单的融合预报系统进行个例试验, 探讨了可能存在的问题及发展方向。     

Mixing heights and ventilation coefficients for urban centres in India

Monthly mean afternoon (maximum) and early morning (minimum) mixing heights have been calculated for the winter, pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons for eleven stations in India, with the assumption of a dry adiabatic lapse rate in the mixing layer. The morning mixing heights have been calculated by adding +5 °C to the surface minimum temperature except for the monsoon season for which a value of +3 °C has been utilized to account for the urban heat island effect. The spatial variation of mean maximum mixing heights over India has also been studied by isopleth analysis. The morning and afternoon ventilation coefficients have been calculated for the eleven stations under consideration. The spatial distribution of afternoon ventilation coefficients has also been studied. The optimum siting industries to minimize our pollution has been discussed.     

Displacement barrier heights from experimental nucleation rate data

Nucleation phenomena have a great importance in many areas of science. However, the main theoretical tool to analyse these phenomena, the classical nucleation theory (CNT), has known weaknesses. A decade ago a nucleation theorem based correction to CNT was developed [McGraw, R., Laaksonen, A., 1996. Scaling properties of the critical nucleus in classical and molecular-based theories of vapor–liquid nucleation. Phys. Rev. Lett. 76, 2754–2757]. We have analysed experimental nucleation rate data of two homologous series of molecular fluids in terms of this scaling relation. Our first results suggest possible universal functional form for correction to the temperature dependence of CNT.     

Displacement barrier heights from experimental nucleation rate data

Nucleation phenomena have a great importance in many areas of science. However, the main theoretical tool to analyse these phenomena, the classical nucleation theory (CNT), has known weaknesses. A decade ago a nucleation theorem based correction to CNT was developed [McGraw, R., Laaksonen, A., 1996. Scaling properties of the critical nucleus in classical and molecular-based theories of vapor–liquid nucleation. Phys. Rev. Lett. 76, 2754–2757]. We have analysed experimental nucleation rate data of two homologous series of molecular fluids in terms of this scaling relation. Our first results suggest possible universal functional form for correction to the temperature dependence of CNT.     

Climate change signal and uncertainty in projections of ocean wave heights

In this study, projections of seasonal means and extremes of ocean wave heights were made using projections of sea level pressure fields conducted with three global climate models for three forcing-scenarios. For each forcing-scenario, the three climate models’ projections were combined to estimate the multi-model mean projection of climate change. The relative importance of the variability in the projected wave heights that is due to the forcing prescribed in a forcing-scenario was assessed on the basis of ensemble simulations conducted with the Canadian coupled climate model CGCM2. The uncertainties in the projections of wave heights that are due to differences among the climate models and/or among the forcing-scenarios were characterized. The results show that the multi-model mean projection of climate change has patterns similar to those derived from using the CGCM2 projections alone, but the magnitudes of changes are generally smaller in the boreal oceans but larger in the region nearby the Antarctic coastal zone. The forcing-induced variance (as simulated by CGCM2) was identified to be of substantial magnitude in some areas in all seasons. The uncertainty due to differences among the forcing-scenarios is much smaller than that due to differences among the climate models, although it was identified to be statistically significant in most areas of the oceans (this indicates that different forcing conditions do make notable differences in the wave height climate change projection). The sum of the model and forcing-scenario uncertainties is smaller in the JFM and AMJ seasons than in other seasons, and it is generally small in the mid-high latitudes and large in the tropics. In particular, some areas in the northern oceans were projected to have large changes by all the three climate models.     

Boundary-layer heights over the monsoon trough region during active and break phases

The thermodynamic structure and the heights of the boundary layer over the monsoon trough region of the Indian southwest monsoon are presented for the active and break phases of the monsoon. Results indicate significant and consistent variation in boundary-layer heights between the active and break phases.     

边界层参数化方案对暴雨数值模拟的影响

大气边界层(Atmospheric Boundary Layer,ABL)是自由大气和地球表面(陆地和海洋)的连接层,它对于降水的发生发展有重要影响。ABL高度是ABL的一个重要参数,主要应用于大气数值天气(或气候)模式中的ABL过程的参数化,获取准确的ABL高度数据对于提高数值天气预报模式、空气污染物预报模式等的预报精度具有重要作用。概述了利用常规探空资料、卫星遥感资料、气溶胶后向散射资料、全球导航卫星系统GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System)掩星探测资料等数据估计ABL高度的主要方法及进展情况,提出在同时具有多种观测资料时如何处理ABL高度的三个基本原则,并以目前广泛应用的数值天气预报模式WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting)为例重点介绍ABL高度数据在数值天气(或气候)预报模式中的应用,对相关的发展情况进行了总结展望。

     

Teleconnections: Northern hemisphere lower stratospheric geopotential heights and Indian monsoon rainfall

Summary In this study a search for teleconnection is made between the Northern Hemisphere lower stratospheric geopotential heights and Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) through the correlation analysis approach. Monthly grid-point 50 hPa geopotential height data and the June to September IMR are used for the period 1958–1990.Analysis reveal that there are domains over the Northern Hemisphere where the variation of the geopotential heights during the preceding months of the monsoon period are related with the interannual behaviour of the IMR. During January and February significant positive correlations are seen along the lower latitudes (10°–20° N). However, the maximum relationship is seen during March, with high positive correlations over the Canadian sector and negative correlations over the east Asian sector. The correlation configuration weakens considerably, once the ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) cases are excluded, suggesting that the correlation pattern obtained may be a manifestation of the ENSO cycle. Implications of these results in the long range forecasting of IMR are also discussed.With 5 Figures     

Statistical analysis of boundary layer heights in a suburban environment

The atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is characterized by the turbulence eddies that transport heat, momentum, gaseous constituents and particulate matter from Earth’s surface to the atmosphere and vice versa. Thus, the determination of its height has a great importance in a wide range of applications like air quality forecasting and management. This study aims at estimating the height of the ABL in a suburban environment and at investigating its temporal variation and its relationship with meteorological variables, like temperature and wind. For this purpose, radiosonde data from the suburban area of Thessaloniki, Greece, are analyzed. The data analysis reveals that ABL height is usually below 200 m in the morning hours during all seasons of the year and that is also low when near-surface temperature and wind speed are low too. Additionally, noon ABL height exhibits a strong seasonal variation, reaching higher values during summer than during winter.Very high values of ABL height, of the order of ~3,000 m, are occasionally observed in Thessaloniki during summer. Moreover, sea breeze development during summer is related to a slight reduction of the ABL height.     

Projection of time-mean geopotential heights onto normal,hough modes

Summary Bernhard Haurwitz discussed theoretically the roles of forced stationary and traveling free waves in the atmosphere. At least some of the prediction errors of the large-scale weather are thought to result from the improper partitioning of energy between the forced stationary fields and free traveling or normal modes of the forecast models. Here we project observed average fields for a given time of the year onto normal modes of a forecast model. It is important to have estimates of how the stationary, forced fields project onto these modes since the model must partition energy correctly between the stationary, forced fields and real, traveling modes in order to more accurately predict the evolution of the large scales.With 6 Figures     

The influence of geopotential heights on New South Wales rainfall

Summary An investigation of the relationships between New South Wales (NSW) seasonal rainfalls and fluctuations of geopotential height at four Australian radiosonde stations is presented. The connection between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the geopotential height was explored up to the mid-troposphere. The study determined that the 800 and 600 hPa heights at Woomera show stronger and more consistent correlations with winter and spring rainfalls respectively, than occur between SOI and rainfall. The 900 hPa height at Brisbane is also strongly correlated with autumn rainfall for much of coastal NSW. These correlations are found to be stable during high and low phases of the SO cycle. It was found that the effects of the considered geopotential data on rainfall are independent of the influence of the SO phenomenon. The study also found that the fluctuations of geopotential heights at Woomera are related to rainfall variability over a wide region of southern Australia. At Darwin the 800 hPa surface appears to be the highest altitude at which there is any influence from the Southern Oscillation during winter. Furthermore, airmass movement over inland NSW is quite strongly related to SOI but coastal airmass movement is only weakly related to SOI. A mechanism for the influence of the Southern Oscillation on NSW rainfall is suggested.With 9 Figures     

A comparison of ABL heights inferred routinely from lidar and radiosondes at noontime

The height of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) obtained with lidar and radiosondes is compared for a data set of 43 noon (12.00 GMT) cases in 1984. The data were selected to represent the synoptic circulation types appropriately. Lidar vertical profiles at 1064 nm were used to obtain three estimates for the ABL height (h _lid), based on the first gradient in the back-scatter profile, namely, at the beginning, middle and top of the gradient. The boundary-layer height obtained with the radiosondes (h _s) was determined with the dry-parcel-intersection method in unstable conditions. As a first guess for near-neutral and stable conditions, the height of the first significant level in the potential temperature profile was taken. Overall, the boundary-layer thickness estimates agree surprisingly well (regression lineh _lidb=h_s:cc.=0.93 and the standard error=121 m). However, in 10% of the cases, the lidar estimate was significantly lower (difference>400 m) than the routinely inferredh _s. These outliers are discussed separately. For stable conditions, an estimate of ABL height (h _N) is also made based on the friction velocity and the Brunt-Väisälä frequency. The agreement betweenh _Nandh _lidbis good. Discrepancies between the two methods are caused by:

1. rapid growth of the boundary layer arround the measurement time;
2. the presence of a deep entrainment layer leading to a large zone in which quantities are not well mixed;
3. a large systematic error of 100–200 m in the estimate of boundary-layer height obtained from the radiosonde due to the way that profiles are recorded, as a series of significant points.

     

Ocean wave heights measured by a high resolution pulse-limited radar altimeter

Radar measurements of wave height are compared with independent measurements made during the JONSWAP-2 experiment by Waverider and pitch-roll buoys, a shipborne wave recorder and a laser profilometer. The radar data were recorded by a Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) nanosecond-pulse X-band radar altimeter flown in a NASA C-54 aircraft at 3-km altitude under various wind and sea conditions. Averages of 800 pulses of the pulse-limited altimeter data were used to calculate maximum-likelihood estimates of significant wave height (SWH) and skewness of the sea-surface height distribution. The mean values of the radar-estimated SWH were in good agreement with the other measurements. The standard deviation of the values of the radar measurements was typically 10% of the average wave height. A two-dimensional computer simulation of the sea surface indicates that the major portion of the observed standard deviation is attributable to the relatively small sea-surface area illuminated by the radar (125 m × 900 m) rather than to instrumental error. Increasing the number of pulses averaged reduced the variance in the estimates without changing the means. The mean value of the skewness parameter was generally near zero but the standard deviation was typically 0.25. The estimate of SWH did not change when the skewness parameter was constrained to zero.     

Prediction of inversion strengths and heights from A 1-D nocturnal boundary layer model

A 1-D numerical model for the nocturnal boundary layer is developed which is capable of predicting inversion heights and strengths successfully. The model uses two distinct length scales for the dissipation of turbulent energy and for transfer of heat and momentum within the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). The wind and potential temperature profiles obtained from the present model are compared with observations and the agreement is found to be good, viz., the RMSE for inversion height is found to be 71 m and that for inversion strength is found to be 2.0 °C.     

Detection of external influence on trends of atmospheric storminess and northern oceans wave heights

The atmospheric storminess as inferred from geostrophic wind energy and ocean wave heights have increased in boreal winter over the past half century in the high-latitudes of the northern hemisphere (especially the northeast North Atlantic), and have decreased in more southerly northern latitudes. This study shows that these trend patterns contain a detectable response to anthropogenic and natural forcing combined. The effect of external influence is found to be strongest in the winter hemisphere, that is, in the northern hemisphere in January–March and in the southern hemisphere in July–September. However, the simulated response to anthropogenic and natural forcing combined, which was obtained directly from climate models in the case of geostrophic wind energy and indirectly via an empirical downscaling procedure in the case of ocean wave heights, is significantly weaker than the magnitude of the observed changes in these parameters.     

Some experiments with multivariate objective analysis scheme of heights and winds using optimum interpolation

A two-dimensional, multitvariate objective analysis scheme for simultaneous analysis of geopotential height and wind fields has been developed over Indian and adjoining region for use in numerical weather prediction. The height-height correlations calculated using daily data of four July months (1976-1979), are used to derive the other autocorrelations and cross-correlations assuming geostropic relationship. A Gaussian function is used to model the autocorrelation function. Since the scheme is multivariate the regression coefficients (weights) are matrix.Near the equator, the geostrophic approximation relating mass and wind is decoupled in a way similar to Bergman (1979). The objective analyses were made over Indian and adjoining region for 850, 700, 500, 300 and 200 hPa levels for the period from 4 July to 8 July 1979, 12 GMT. The analyses obtained using multivariate optimum in-terpolation scheme depict the synoptic situations satisfactorily. The analyses were also compared with the FGGE ana-lyses (from ECMWF) and also with the station observations by computing the root mean square (RMS) errors and the RMS errors are comparable with those obtained in other similar studies.     

A study of wind speed modification and internal boundary-layer heights in a coastal region

Wind profile data within the first two kilometres of a coast have been used to study the wind field modification downstream of this surface discontinuity. The land area is generally very flat, having an overall roughness length of 0.04 m. A wind model, suitable for practical applications and inexpensive to run, has been tested against the data and was found to give satisfactory results. Knowing the climatological statistics of wind and stratification, e.g., at the coast, the model may thus be used to estimate, on a climatological basis, how the wind field is modified with distance inland, at least in areas with only minor topography. This type of information is of great importance when locating wind turbines. It is in these cases also important to know the statistics of the internal boundary-layer (IBL) height, as the turbulence intensity may be quite different in and above the IBL, which in turn may influence load and fatigue calculations. Using the wind profile data, the IBL height was clearly discernible in the majority of cases. Having very unstable stratification over land, the IBL height could, however, not be determined from the wind profiles, as the wind in these cases did not decrease inland. This result was also obtained using the wind model. A simple model of the type z _IBL = a · x ^b, was instead tested, and was shown to give reasonable results.