从“漏斗”到“天坑”看岩溶学术语的演变

岩溶学是一门发展变化的科学,岩溶学术语也与时俱进。以术语“漏斗（doline）”为例,它来源于斯洛文尼亚喀斯特地区的方言,在斯洛文尼亚语中,它（dolina,单数）的意思是谷地,主要指河谷。因此,在19世纪以前的斯洛文尼亚语的科学文献中,就是指谷地。随着19世纪上半叶岩溶学的发展,喀斯特高原的漏斗状地形逐渐引起研究者们的注意,德语系的奥地利地质学家们将这种地形定义为“漏斗（dolines,复数）”,相当于德语的Trichter（漏斗）,并声明是当地人的说法。因此,在19世纪下半叶奥地利地质学家的出版物中,普遍使用这一概念。如在Cvijic′的DasKarstp¨hanomen（岩溶现象）一书中,其漏斗（dolines）的概念可谓无所不包,除岩溶干谷和坡立谷以外,所有洼地都称为漏斗,不仅包括溶蚀漏斗和塌陷漏斗,也包括竖井、落水洞、天窗,甚至某些岩溶泉和洞穴洞口。同斯洛文尼亚语相似,在塞尔维亚语中,doline也是指一般谷地。因此,Cvijic′在塞尔维亚语文献中不再使用dolina表示漏斗状地形,而是用vrtaca,这是因为vrtaca和我们今天使用的doline的内涵非常相近,而且在法语、德语、意大利语、英语、克罗地亚语均有相似的词汇。在20世纪中期以前,斯洛文尼亚的地理学家们为了避免使用dolina引起歧义,对于漏斗状的地形均用vrtaca表达。在19世纪下半叶,漏斗（dolines）的成因有两派理论,一种持塌陷成因,一种持侵蚀成因,后者包括侵蚀和溶蚀两种作用。前者以Schmidl为代表,后者支持者是Cox,Diener和Mojsisovics。根据漏斗的形态,Cvijic将其分为三种,即碗状漏斗、漏斗状漏斗和井状漏斗。随着对漏斗状地形的深入研究,V.Panos＇s根据漏斗的不同发育阶段、漏斗的成因、漏斗的覆盖类型、漏斗形成的气候因素、漏斗的沉积类型以及漏斗的形态,将漏斗分为30种。根据最新的岩溶百科全书,按     

基于三维copula函数的多水文区丰枯遭遇分析

不同水文区的丰枯遭遇概率分析属于多变量概率分布问题,涉及的水文区越多,变量的维数就越高,问题就越复杂.为找到一种简单通用的多变量(n≥3)水文概率问题的求解方法,以不同水文区丰枯遭遇概率分析为例,引入三维copula函数构建多变量联合概率模型,将其用于分析长江、淮河及黄河流域的径流量的联合概率和条件概率问题。研究结果表明,当变量维数n≥3时,由copula函数可以很容易地构建多变量概率分布模型;对一组水文数据系列,有多个不同copula函数可以选择,可采用拟合优度检验方法择优;copula函数构建的多变量概率模型,可以计算各种条件下的联合概率分布,可以分析各种不同量级水文变量的遭遇概率和条件概率;通过与多维转换为一维方法的比较,三维Frank copula函数具有更优良的拟合优度、无偏性及有效性,且计算更简便。     

Doline probability map using logistic regression and GIS technology in the central Ebro Basin (Spain)

In the surroundings of Zaragoza, karstification processes are especially intense in covered karst areas where fluvial terraces lie directly on Tertiary evaporites. Since the beginning of Quaternary, these processes have lead to the development of collapse and subsidence dolines with a wide range of sizes, which have significant economic impacts. To reduce economic impact and increase safety, a regional analysis of this phenomenon is needed for spatial management. Therefore, a probability map of dolines was developed using logistic regression and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. This paper covers the selection of input data, manipulation of data using the GIS technology, and the use of logistic regression to generate a doline probability map. The primary variable in the doline development in this area is geomorphology, represented by the location of endorheic areas and different terrace levels. Secondary variables are the presence of irrigation and the water table gradient.     

A probabilistic approach to the assessment of uranium resources

This paper presents a probabilistic approach to the estimation of uranium resources that allows for the integration of geologic observations with the experience and judgment of geologists. The paper focuses on estimating roll-front type deposits. The approach is based on a quantitative material balance model of ore formation that describes the quantity of uranium resources in terms of several key parameters constituting the quantity of uranium entering a host, and the fraction of the entering uranium that has been precipitated. The parameters cannot necessarily be measured in the field, but they can be inferred from available information and interpretation of field observations. The key to this approach is eliciting these inferences from geologists, representing the uncertainties inherent in drawing the geologic inferences as probability distributions, and combining the distributions to arrive at a probability distribution for uranium resources in a region. This paper presents the model, procedures for eliciting subjective probabilities and updating the distribution over resources within a Bayesian framework, and a demonstration of the procedure by obtaining estimates for three roll-front type deposits in Wyoming.     

GIS based analysis of doline density on Taurus Mountains,Turkey

The Taurus Mountain is one of the most important karstic region of the world and dolines are characteristics landforms of this area. However, the number and distribution of doline are unknown in the study area. The aims of this study are to explain the total number of dolines, distribution of doline density, effects of slope conditions and the change of doline orientation in the Taurus Mountains. According to the 1/25000 scale topographic maps utilized in this study, a total of 140,070 dolines were determined in a 13,189 km² area on eleven high karstic plateaus bordered by steep slopes and deep gorges. These plateaus are substantially affected by highly-faulted and jointed systems and about 80% of each plateau is covered with neritic limestone. The dolines are located at an elevation between 10 and 2870 m. Average elevation of all dolines is 1842 m. 90% of dolines are located between 1300 and 2270 m and only 5% of dolines found under 1330 m. According to this results, the densest doline zone corresponds to the alpine and periglacial zone above the treeline. Doline density reaches?>?100 doline/km² on Mt. Anamas and the Seyran, Geyik and Akda? ranges as well as the Ta?eli plateau. Maximum density (187 doline/km²) is found on the Akda? Mountains. However, 66% of the study area is characterized by low density, 29.9% with moderate density, 3.4% with high density and 0.7% with very high density. The highest doline densities are seen on gentle slopes (15°–25°/km²) and steep slopes (>?35°/km²) are limited doline distribution. According to the rose diagram formed by the azimuths of the long axis of the dolines at the Central Taurus, two direction are dominant in doline orientations (NW–SE and NE–SW). However, dominant directions are NE-SW at eastern, NE–SW and NW–SE at central and NW-SE at western part of the Central Taurus. According to this elongations, doline orientations are formed an arc which is formed by tectonic evolution of the Central Taurus.     

华北煤田岩溶陷落柱分类及其特征

在总结华北煤田多起陷落柱突水事例及对徐淮煤田40多个矿区调研的基础上,依据陷落柱不同发育阶段的水文地质工程地质特征等,将其分为4个发育阶段:前期发育阶段、强烈发育阶段、衰退阶段和死亡阶段。通过分析陷落柱发育的不同层位,将其划分为3类,即奥灰层位之上可溶岩组、奥陶纪可溶岩组及寒武纪可溶岩组。继而,将陷落柱综合划分为12类,并总结分析了各类型陷落柱的地质特征。      

Slope vulnerability to earthquakes at subregional scale, using probabilistic techniques and geographic information systems

The susceptibility of slopes to failure during earthquakes is calculated, in terms of critical horizontal acceleration, on a subregional scale for the upper part of the Serchio River basin (Tuscany, Italy). According to the working scale (1:10 000) and to the availability and accuracy of the input data, the infinite slope analysis was judged to be the most appropriate method, but particular attention was devoted to the error evaluation due to spatial variability of the geotechnic, geometric, and hydrologic parameters. A geologic, geomorphologic and hydrologic survey of the area was therefore performed, and the geotechnic parameters were collected at local administrations. All the data were stored in a GIS, used as a tool to build the spatial and attribute data base and to prepare the input data layers for the stability analysis. In order to assess the variability of geotechnic parameters, a statistical analysis was performed to assign the best-fitting probability distribution to cohesion, angle of internal friction and unit weight of the soil. As hydrogeologic data were not available for the area, only surface hydrology information could be used; a map of probability of spring occurrences was derived by a bayesian method, the Weight of Evidence Modelling, and was used as groundwater indicator. A Monte Carlo procedure and a first-order second-moment method were applied and compared as error estimators in assessing the slope susceptibility to failure. The differences between the two methods are discussed, and two maps showing, respectively, the critical horizontal acceleration and the probability of failure associated with each slope are presented, together with the curve plotting the reliability index against the probability of failure.     

济南苏家庄铁矿矿区地面塌陷成因分析

在对济南苏家庄铁矿矿区地质环境条件、矿山开采现状调查基础上,基于地面塌陷 特征及成因分析,从矿山地球物理特征、井巷工程、地下水水位、矿体及围岩工程地质性质 等因素出发,论证了矿区塌陷的成因。调查研究表明,在200 m的瞬变电磁法探测深度范围 内视电阻率等值线水平变化相对平缓,采空区未见明显的采空区分布异常;采空区总体积仅约9 218 m3,远小于矿坑塌陷坑总体积58 665.8 m3;竖井与塌陷坑、塌陷坑与采空区水位高差巨大且稳定,达到了58.93～64.11 m;矿井巷道闪长岩、灰岩及大理岩围岩整体性好,力学强度高,因此由采空塌陷造成的地面塌陷可能性很小。在此基础上,结合矿区地形地貌、地层结构、松散盖层、动力条件及矿坑排水等因素综合分析,认为该矿区的地面塌陷是由矿山开采过程中长期排水所引起。      

四川兴文小岩湾天坑的形成及其发育研究

天坑是我国学者朱学稳最早提出的,区别于普通漏斗、发育于大型暗河通道上的塌陷地形。根据小岩湾天坑形成的基础条件(沉积环境、气候与水文条件、地区地层条件以及该地的地下河条件)进行分析,并对其发育过程作了深入探讨,研究结果显示,小岩湾天坑完全符合天坑的定义,是一个发育完好并处于的成熟阶段的特大天坑。     

水文频率分析中参数估计SAGA-ML方法的研究

建立基于模拟退火遗传算法(Sjmualted Annealing Genetic Algorithm,SAGA)的改进极大似然法,即将似然函数相反数求解极小值的表达式作为目标函数,依据矩法估计参数取值范围作为约束条件,然后应用SAGA进行参数估计.与常规极大似然法思路有本质不同,改进极大似然法通过遗传算法进行参数优化.通过蒙特卡罗试验,验证了改进极大似然法在参数估计和不同频率设计值估计两个方面均具有很好的准确性,与基于最大熵原理的方法效果相当,优于其他方法;同时该方法不受线型类型、参数数目和约束条件的限制;可以避免应用常规极大似然法时出现似然方程无解等情况;且求解过程简便快捷,使极大似然法在理论上和实际应用中都成为有效的方法.     

Wetter or colder during the Last Glacial Maximum? Revisiting the pluvial lake question in southwestern North America

Well-preserved shorelines in Estancia basin and a relatively simple hydrologic setting have prompted several inquiries into the basin's hydrologic balance for the purpose of estimating regional precipitation during the late Pleistocene. Estimates have ranged from 86% to 150% of modern, the disparity largely the result of assumptions about past temperatures. In this study, we use an array of models for surface-water runoff, groundwater flow, and lake energy balance to examine previously proposed scenarios for late Pleistocene climate. Constraints imposed by geologic evidence of past lake levels indicate that precipitation for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) may have doubled relative to modern values during brief episodes of colder and wetter climate and that annual runoff was as much as 15% of annual precipitation during these episodes.     

遥感技术在吉林省地质灾害及其防治研究中的应用

总结和介绍发生在吉林省的地震、地裂缝、崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、地面塌陷、地面沉降、水土流失、陨石雨、沙漠化、盐碱化、沼泽化及洪涝灾害的特点、分布状况及形成机制,探讨了防治与减灾对策。以航、卫片解译查明各地质灾害的影象特征及分布范围,表明遥感技术在地质灾害的调查和监测中,具有重要意义。     

北京城建工程基坑和地面塌陷灾害研究

城市人类工程活动等已经成为强大的地质营力,强烈地参与到自然地质作用之中。北京城市建设工程基坑和地面塌陷是城市引发的新的地质灾害,目前尚未进行地质勘查和研究,其危害性也处于未知状态。开展城市地面塌陷灾害勘查和风险评价,是提高城市地质安全保障能力迫在眉睫的城市地质工作之一,也是地质工作服务于城市管理的重要内容,对于北京这样的国家首都城市健康发展具有相当深远的意义。     

Confidence Intervals of Quantiles in Hydrology Computed by an Analytical Method

Fitting probability distributions to hydrologic data samples is widely used for quantile estimation purposes. The estimated quantile (X^_T) is related to a return period (T). The confidence interval associated with each of the estimates has been calculated empirically, up until now, supposing that the quantile estimator is normally distributed. In this study, it is shown that the confidence interval follows a normal distribution only in the central part of the distribution. The real confidence limits are computed analytically, by defining and integrating the probability density function of the confidence interval. The results with an important number of hydrologic samples show that the upper confidence limits are significantly underestimated towards the tail of the distribution, when determined using the normality approximation for the quantile estimator.     

甘肃省陇西县地质灾害气象条件分析

利用陇西县近20年的地质灾害与降水资料,分析发生地质灾害的主要区域和具体地点及危害程度和分布特征,研究了引发地质灾害的气象条件。研究结果表明:山体滑坡、地裂缝、塌陷和泥石流是陇西县主要的地质灾害类型,地质灾害时段主要集中在局部强降雨和暴雨出现的夏季(5～8月)。地质灾害发生有多方面因素构成,大—暴雨、暴雨降水过程是地质灾害发生的决定条件,其次是人为性破坏了地质原有结构,导致出现或诱发地质灾害。我们在探讨地质灾害形成的主要成因的基础上,确定了地质灾害发生的降水强度标准,再根据多年的预报经验,寻找出相关性较好的预报因子,应用气象资料分析判断引发地质灾害可能性大小,发布预警信号和地质气象灾害预警发布和防御流程。     

U.S. Geological Survey probabilistic methodology for oil and gas resource appraisal of the United States

Probabilistic methodology used by the U.S. Geological Survey is described for estimating the quantity of undiscovered recoverable conventional resources of oil and gas in the United States. A judgmental probability distribution of the quantity of resource and its properties is determined for a geologic province or basin. From this distribution, point and interval estimates of the quantity of undiscovered resource are obtained. Distributions and their properties are established for each of the following resources: (1) oil and nonassociated gas from estimates of the probability of the resource being present and the conditional probability distribution of the quantity of resource given that the resource is present, (2) associated-dissolved gas from its corresponding oil distribution, (3) total gas, (4) oil and total gas in two or more provinces. Computer graphics routines are illustrated with examples from the U.S. Geological Survey Circular 860.     

地质条件不确定性下TBM管片结构失事概率计算

不良地质条件是影响TBM施工隧洞管片结构安全的重要因素。综合考虑围岩地质条件和衬砌结构的不确定性,提出了一种定量分析TBM管片结构失事概率的新方法。在基于Markov过程估计隧洞沿程地质岩性变化概率的基础上,建立了隧洞任意位置处管片选型不匹配的概率模型;考虑围岩和管片参数的不确定性,采用随机有限元方法计算某一类型管片在不同围岩下的失事概率;由此,采用全概率公式,可计算隧洞沿程任意位置处管片结构的失事概率。结合实际工程,针对施工期工况,确定了该隧洞管片沿程的失事概率、最大失事概率及其所对应的位置等,为管片选型、优化设计及TBM施工期的风险防范提供了依据。     

桂林附近陷落地震分布,形成及特征

隐落地震是石灰岩喀斯特区溶洞或上洞塌陷所引起的特殊类型的地震,在我国南方及西南喀斯特区域分布较为广泛,是一类低震级高烈度的地震,在震中区造成较大的震灾。本文以桂林附近喀斯特区为研究范围,从古往今来的地震记录中分析提炼出其分布、形成及特征。     

Probability of scour depth exceedance owing to hydrologic uncertainty

The average risk of a bridge over water in the USA collapsing from scour during its 75 years design life is estimated at 3.7×10^?3. This risk makes scour of foundations the number one cause of bridge collapse and 3 times larger than the next cause of bridge collapse, which is collisions. The current paper presents a site specific method to estimate the probability that a certain scour depth will be exceeded during the life of a bridge. The methodology is limited to some uncertainties associated with the randomness of hydrologic conditions. It does not include uncertainties associated with other input parameters, such as geometry and soil erodibility or uncertainties associated with the scour prediction model. The SRICOS–EFA method is used as the reference method to predict the scour depth. This method requires three inputs: the hydraulic parameters (e.g. velocity hydrograph), the geometry parameters (e.g. pier size) and the soil erodibility parameters (e.g. erosion function). The input is used together with the program to generate the scour depth versus time over the period of interest. The final scour depth is that reached at the end of the specified period. This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to present the final scour depth as a cumulative density function. The cumulative density function of the flow is sampled randomly to give a future hydrograph, which has the same mean and standard deviation as the original hydrograph. For this synthetic hydrograph a final scour depth is obtained by using SRICOS–EFA. Thousands of equally likely hydrographs are generated and the corresponding final scour depths are organized in a distribution. That final scour depth distribution gives the probability that a chosen scour depth will be exceeded.     

应用综合物探法勘查评价抚顺榆林局部塌陷区

利用测地工作、重力测量、高精度磁测、甚低频电磁法、电测深测量、浅层地震折射波法等物探方法,勘查评价了抚顺榆林局部塌陷区.利用物探方法可查明本区内的断裂构造、地下空洞、含水层位的分布情况,并综合所有物探成果及地质、地形测量工作成果进行推断解释.研究了该塌陷区沉降与塌陷的机理,总结塌陷原因,指出塌陷隐患部位.