Preseismic Creep Strains Revealed by Ground Tilt Measurements in Central Italy on the Occasion of the 1997 Umbria-Marche Apennines Earthquake Sequence

-- Daily averaged tilt component data from four sites of the Central Apennines (Italy) revealed intermediate-term tilts of a few months as possible precursors of the seismic sequence occurred in the Umbria-Marche region during 1997. A change was also observed in the secular tectonic trend recorded at one site and referred to the same seismic sequence. The observed intermediate-term preseismic tilts are considered as the manifestation of aseismic creep episodes in the fault materials close to the tilt sites. The mechanism refers to a strain field slowly propagating from the dilatancy (focal) area to the tiltmeters, through rigid crustal blocks separated by weak transition zones with viscoelastic rheology. This propagation is thought to be the cause of the local aseismic fault slip recorded by tiltmeters. In one case such creep strains revealed to have larger amplitude and higher frequency content than those accepted for fault materials, and this was attributed to an amplified response of the heterogeneous ground surface at the site. The existence of a propagating strain field is confirmed by the different onset time delays in the preseismic tilt signals recorded at different distances from the same earthquake. In particular, the onset time delays observed at each tilt site appear to increase with increasing distance of such site from the epicentral area. At greatest distances, where the preseismic strain becomes negligible, the characteristic intermediate-term ground tilts vanish completely.     

芦山MS7.0地震前远、 近场形变 时空演化特征研究

应用芦山M_S7.0地震震中附近跨断层及连续形变观测资料, 分析了芦山地震前不同阶段地形变变化的特点, 讨论了震中附近区域异常时空演化过程. 结果表明: ① 自2013年1月起, 沿鲜水河断裂带一些跨断层基线观测到显著的加速转折变化, 沿安宁河、 则木河断裂带个别场地的跨断层水准基线, 2010年以来出现的巨幅异常等是突出的场兆变化; 沿龙门山断裂带一些水准观测在汶川M_S8.0地震后持续的调整变化具有近震源区变形特征. ② 鲜水河、 龙门山和安宁河3条主要断裂围成的三叉口地区, 地倾斜、 应变、 重力及断层水准和蠕变观测临震前均未有显著的异常变化, GPS水平、 垂直位移年速率最小, 该地区是形变变化或形变异常分布的“空区”. ③ 在对近场与远场多种连续形变数据通过傅里叶变换提取年周期成分后发现, 临震前2—3年近震源区域的地倾斜、 重力年变化幅度不是增大, 而是减小. 芦山M_S7.0地震前观测到的形变前兆现象特征与汶川M_S8.0地震等震前的前兆现象较为接近. 因此, 芦山地震前近震源区及外围形变异常分布特征不是个别的现象.      

Retardations in fault creep rates before local moderate earthquakes along the San Andreas fault system,central California

Records of shallow aseismic slip (fault creep) obtained along parts of the San Andreas and Calaveras faults in central California demonstrate that significant changes in creep rates often have been associated with local moderate earthquakes. An immediate postearthquake increase followed by gradual, long-term decay back to a previous background rate is generally the most obvious earthquake effect on fault creep. This phenomenon, identified as aseismic afterslip, usually is characterized by above-average creep rates for several months to a few years. In several cases, minor step-like movements, called coseismic slip events, have occurred at or near the times of mainshocks. One extreme case of coseismic slip, recorded at Cienega Winery on the San Andreas fault 17.5 km southeast of San Juan Bautista, consisted of 11 mm of sudden displacement coincident with earthquakes ofM _L =5.3 andM _L =5.2 that occurred 2.5 minutes apart on 9 April 1961. At least one of these shocks originated on the main fault beneath the winery. Creep activity subsequently stopped at the winery for 19 months, then gradually returned to a nearly steady rate slightly below the previous long-term average.The phenomena mentioned above can be explained in terms of simple models consisting of relatively weak material along shallow reaches of the fault responding to changes in load imposed by sudden slip within the underlying seismogenic zone. In addition to coseismic slip and afterslip phenomena, however, pre-earthquakeretardations in creep rates also have been observed. Onsets of significant, persistent decreases in creep rates have occurred at several sites 12 months or more before the times of moderate earthquakes. A 44-month retardation before the 1979M _L =5.9 Coyote Lake earthquake on the Calaveras fault was recorded at the Shore Road creepmeter site 10 km northwest of Hollister. Creep retardation on the San Andreas fault near San Juan Bautista has been evident in records from one creepmeter site for the past 5 years. Retardations with durations of 21 and 19 months also occurred at Shore Road before the 1974 and 1984 earthquakes ofM _L =5.2 andM _L =6.2, respectively.Although creep retardation remains poorly understood, several possible explanations have been discussed previously. (1) Certain onsets of apparent creep retardation may be explained as abrupt terminations of afterslip generated from previous moderate-mainshock sequences. (2) Retardations may be related to significant decreases in the rate of seismic and/or aseismic slip occurring within or beneath the underlying seismogenic zone. Such decreases may be caused by changes in local conditions related to growth of asperities, strain hardening, or dilatancy, or perhaps by passage of stress-waves or other fluctuations in driving stresses. (3) Finally, creep rates may be lowered (or increased) by stresses imposed on the fault by seismic or aseismic slip on neighboring faults. In addition to causing creep-rate increases or retardations, such fault interactions occasionally may trigger earthquakes.Regardless of the actual mechanisms involved and the current lack of understanding of creep retardation, it appears that shallow fault creep is sensitive to local and regional effects that promote or accompany intermediate-term preparation stages leading to moderate earthquakes. A strategy for more complete monitoring of fault creep, wherever it is known to occur, therefore should be assigned a higher priority in our continuing efforts to test various hypotheses concerning the mechanical relations between seismic and aseismic slip.     

Quaternary faults and seismicity in the Umbro-Marchean Apennines (Central Italy): evidence from the 1997 Colfiorito earthquake

Analyses of structural and geomorphological data combined with remote sensing interpretation confirm previous knowledge on the existence of an extensional Quaternary tectonic regime in the Colfiorito area (Umbro-Marchean Central Apennines). This is characterized by a maximum principal axis of finite strain oriented approx. NE–SW, which is the result of a progressive deformation process due to pure and radial extension. Surface geological data, the crustal tectonic setting (reconstructed using a CROP 03 seismic reflection profile), and seismological data relative to the autumn 1997 Colfiorito earthquake sequence constrain the following seismotectonic model. We interpret the seismogenic SW-dipping low-angle normal fault pictured by seismic data as an inverted thrust ramp located in the basement at depth between 5 and 10 km. The surface projection of this seismogenic structure defines a crustal box within which high-angle normal faults are responsible for the deformation of the uppermost crust. The regional patterns of pre-existing basement thrusts therefore control the seismotectonic zoning of the area that cannot be directly related to the high-angle normal fault systems which cut through different crustal boxes; the latter system records, in fact, re-shear along pre-existing normal faults. Moreover, Quaternary slip-rates relative to high-angle normal faults in the Central Apennines are closely related to seismic hazard within each crustal box.     

Numerical study on basin-edge effects in the seismic response of the Gubbio valley,Central Italy

The Gubbio basin in Central Italy is a intermountain basin of extensional tectonic origin, typical of Central and Southern Apennines, characterized by moderate seismicity. The strongest recorded event within the area is a magnitude 5.7 earthquake which occurred on 29 April 1984 along the Gubbio fault, bordering the eastern side of the basin. The main objective of this study is to analyze the features of earthquake ground motion as related to basin-edge effects, by performing physics-based numerical simulations of the 1984 earthquake through a high-performance spectral element code. The simulated ground motions are found in reasonable agreement with the recorded motions when using the kinematic source model developed by Ameri et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:647–663, 2009), with a rise-time equal to 1 s and a nucleation point located in the middle of the fault. Pronounced differences were noted between records from the basin and adjacent sites at outcropping bedrock, owing to both the strong impedance contrast between soft alluvial sites and bedrock formations (lithostratigraphic amplification), as well as lateral discontinuities related to the 2D/3D geometry of the basin (generation of surface waves). Since the fault was located beneath the basin, 1D amplification effects were found to be more relevant than those associated with the generation of surface waves from the basin edge. Finally, an envelope delay spectrum was computed for the simulated ground motions, showing that surface waves are excited in the frequency band of 0.2–0.8 Hz with a significant increase of ground motion duration within the basin.     

汶川地震前南北地震带中北段地形变变化特征的研究

2008年5月12日汶川8.0级地震是我国自建国以来灾难最为严重的一次强地震。 文中讨论了汶川地震前震源附近与外围地区潮汐形变变化及龙门山地震带、 鲜水河地震带和祁连山地震带断层活动的特点。 分析结果表明: 震前沿龙门山地震带分布的雅安、 汶川及茂县观测台地倾斜测项在2006年初发生转折, 由单向东倾或西倾转向平稳, 临震前无明显变化; 龙门山断裂带及附近地区有5个断层水准观测场地, 除耿达场地观测到巨幅变化外, 其他场地震前未观测到突出的前兆性变化。 震源外围龙灯坝断层蠕变仪(Δ=220 km)震前观测到持续时间在3个月左右的突变性异常, 但依据突变持续时间较难估计相应地震为8级。 而离震中较远的祁连山地震带中西段, 震前也有巨大的断层水准变化, 其与汶川地震的关系值得讨论。     

Detection of Aseismic Slip on an Inland Fault by Crustal Movement and Groundwater Observations: A Case Study on the Yamasaki Fault, Japan

To understand the detailed process of fault activity, aseismic slip may play a crucial role. Aseismic slip of inland faults in Japan is not well known, except for that related to the Atotsugawa fault. To know whether aseismic slip does not occur, or is merely not detected, is an important question. The National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology constructed an observation site near Yasutomi fault, a part of the Yamasaki fault system, and has collected data on the crustal strain field, groundwater pressures, and crustal movement using GPS. In a departure from the long-term trend, a transient change of the crustal strain field lasting a few months was recorded. It indicated the possibility of an aseismic slip event. Furthermore, analyses of data from the extensometers at Yasutomi and Osawa observation vaults of Kyoto University, as well as GPS data from the Geographical Survey Institute (GEONET), revealed unsteady crustal strain changes. All data could be explained by local, left-lateral, aseismic slip of the order of 1 mm in the shallow part of the Yasutomi fault.     

Methods for determining the Pleistocene–Holocene component of displacement on active faults reactivating pre-Quaternary structures: examples from the Central Apennines (Italy)

In the tectonically active fault system of the Central Apennines Ridge (Italy) several normal/transtensive faults mapped as Quaternary structures show evidence of pre-Neogene thrusting activity. Therefore, determining the amount of fault-slip during Pleistocene–Holocene times is crucial for seismic hazard assessment. Three principal lines of evidence have been used in this study for estimating the pre-Quaternary activity of extensional fault systems in the Central Apennines. The first is the geological and stratigraphic record (i.e. thickness and facies variations) for pre-Quaternary successions. The second is the widespread structural analysis evidence of extensional faults involved in Neogene thrust tectonics; whether considering a passive role (e.g. fault carried and tilted above a thrust-sheet) or inversion (e.g. positive inversion and related minor structures). The third is the geomorphological evidence, particularly erosion surface analysis, which permits the understanding of the relief generated by tectonics after the formation of post-thrusting erosional surfaces. Preliminary results from some faults which belong to the Sibillini Mts. and the Norcia extensional fault zones show clear evidence of Quaternary reactivations.     

伴随断层蠕动传播的准静态变形——模型理论分析及唐山地震前孕震断裂运动过程的讨论

根据形变测量资料和有关实验结果以及某些地震前兆特征,本文提出了一种在粘弹性介质半空间中断层滑动面沿断裂带走向扩展,即断层蠕动传播的力学模型.为了研究其附近的形变特征,导出了蠕动传播所产生位移场的解析表达式,并通过数值积分计算了在广义开尔文介质中,滑动时间函数为△U=B(1-e-t/T),而蠕动事件沿断裂带单侧和双侧传播导致的附近介质位移的时空分布.根据1976年唐山地震前沧东断裂带上的短周期测量资料并参考模型所得出的结果,对震前的断层运动作了反推.结果表明,地震前沿沧东断裂带发生过明显的蠕动传播,其初始蠕动发生在小站和沧州之间,随后蠕动沿着断裂带向东北和西南传播,向西南扩展的滑动面是顺扭走滑运动,向东北扩展的滑动面以顺扭走滑运动为主并略有压性倾滑运动分量.      

A mechanical model for deformation and earthquakes on strike-slip faults

A two-dimensional model for stress accumulation and earthquake instability associated with strike-slip faults is considered. The model consists of an elastic lithosphere overlying a viscous asthenosphere, and a fault of finite width with an upper brittle zone having an elastoplastic response and a lower ductile zone having an elastoviscoplastic response. For the brittle, or seismic, zone the behavior of the fault material is assumed to be governed by a relation which involves strain hardening followed by a softening regime, with strength increasing with depth. For the fault material in the ductile, or aseismic, section, the viscous effect is included through use of a nonlinear creep law, and the strength is assumed to decrease with depth. Hence, because of the lesser strength and the viscous effect, continuous flow occurs at great depths, causing stress accumulation at the upper portion of the fault and leading to failure at the bottom of the brittle zone. The failure is initially due to localized strain softening but, with further flow, the material above the softened zone reaches its maximum strength and begins to soften. This process accelerates and may result in an unstable upward rupture propagation.Relations are developed for the history of deformation within the lithosphere, specifically for the velocity of particles within the fault and at the ground surface. The boundary-element method is used for a quantitative study, and numerical results are obtained and compared with the recorded surface deformation of the San Andreas fault. The effects of geometry and material properties on instability, on the history of the surface deformation, and on the earthquake recurrence time are studied. The results are presented in terms of variations of ground-surface shear strain and shear strain rate, and velocity of points within the fault at various times during the earthquake cycle.It is found that the location of rupture initiation, the possibility of a sudden rupture as opposed to stable creep, and also the ground deformation pattern and its history, all critically depend on the mechanical response of the material within the fault zone, especially that of the brittle section. Shorter earthquake recurrence times are obtained for shallower brittle zones and for a stiffer lithosphere. Lower viscosities of the aseismic zone and the absence of asthenospheric coupling tend to suppress instability and promote stable creep. The model results thus suggest that the overall viscosity of the ductile creeping zone must exceed a minimum value for a sudden upward propagating rupture to take place within the seismic section.     

Long-term earthquake triggering in the Southern and Northern Apennines

We argue that the study of long-range interaction between seismic sources in the peri-Adriatic regions may significantly contribute to estimating seismic hazard in Italy. This hypothesis is supported by the reconstruction of the geodynamic and tectonic settings in the Central Mediterranean region, the space–time distribution of major past earthquakes, and the quantification of post-seismic relaxation. The most significant evidence of long-distance interaction is recognized for the Southern Apennines, whose major earthquakes have almost regularly followed within a few years the largest events in the Montenegro-Albania zone since 1850. Statistical analyses of the post-1850 earthquake catalogues give a probability of about 10% that a major event in the Southern Apennines is not preceded by the occurrence of a strong event in the Southern Dinarides–Albanides within 3–5 years. Conversely, the probability of false alarms is relevant (50% within 3 years, 33% within 5 years). Northward, the tectonic setting and some patterns of regularity seen in major events suggest that the seismic activation of the main transtensional decoupling shear zones in the Central Apennines should influence the probability of major earthquakes in the Northern Apennines.     

Fault-generated mountain fronts in the central apennines (Central Italy): Geomorphological features and seismotectonic implications

The morphotectonic framework of the Central Apennines is given by faulted blocks bounded by normal faults, mostly trending NW–SE, NNW–SSE and NE–SW, which cut previous compressive structures. Such a structural setting is consistent with the focal mechanisms of the earthquakes which often occur in this area. In this paper, three lithologically different normal fault-generated mountain fronts are analysed in order to assess the relations between their geomorphic features and active tectonics. They border the Norcia depression (Sibillini Mts, Umbria), the Amatrice–Campotosto plateau (Laga Mts, Lazio) and the Fucino basin (Marsica Mts, Abruzzi). The Norcia depression is bounded by a N20°W trending normal fault to the east and by a parallel antithetic fault to the west. The main fault has a 1000 m throw and gives rise to a wide fault escarpment, characterized by: (1) sharp slope breaks due to low angle gravity faults; (2) important paleolandslides; and (3) several fault scarplets on the piedmont belt affecting Quaternary deposits. The Amatrice–Campotosto plateau is delimited by the western slope of Mt Gorzano which runs along a N20°W trending normal fault having a 1500m throw. Minor parallel faults dislocate Quaternary landforms. Large-scale massmovements also occur here. The Fucino basin was struck by the 1915 Avezzano earthquake (I=XI MCS) which produced extensive surface faulting along two parallel NW trending normal fault escarpments on the eastern border of the basin. There is paleoseismic evidence including buried gravity graben in Late Glacial gravels and tectonic dip-slip striations on Holocene calcitic crusts covering bedrock normal fault planes. These data suggest that active extensional tectonics plays a major role in the slope morphogenesis of the Central Apennines and they indicate the importance of geomorphic analysis in seismic zonation of this area.     

Fault growth by segment linkage in seismically active settings: Examples from the Southern Apennines, Italy, and the Coast Ranges, California

Most models for fault growth and scaling are based on analysis of faults which display dip-slip (i.e. reverse, normal) and strike-slip kinematics; by contrast, little information is derived from faults displaying oblique-slip kinematics. Observations on mesoscopic transpressional faults from the Salinian Block of California and transtensional faults from the Southern Apennines of Italy reveal a complex kinematic history of fault propagation. Faults initially nucleate as isolate segments, which are later kinematically and mechanically linked via development of diffuse deformation zones and/or localised oblique connecting splays. The geometry of observed mesoscopic faults is similar to that of the host, larger structures, thus suggesting that the produced fault patterns are scale independent. Moreover, the overprinting relationships among minor fault-related fabrics permit to define a relative chronology within fault arrays, thus enabling a general sequence of structural stages to be correctly established. Based on minor fabrics and their overprinting relationships, a kinematic deformation model of fault growth by segment linkage is presented, which may have a wide applicability in the field of seismic hazard evaluation.     

象力在震源过程和地震短临预报中的作用

在固体物理学中,象力是指自由面吸引裂缝的力量,本文把这一概念用于不均匀地壳中,则象力可定义为地壳中任何易于变形,让位界面对裂缝的吸引力。按照这一观点,我们讨论了象力在组合模式和短临预报中的作用并得到如下结论。1.组合模式中的应力调整单元,如蠕滑断层,塑性区,裂丛区等可以近似为自由面。因而它对于积累单元预位移的传播或裂缝的传播具有吸引力。2.象力出现的标志是当传播的预位移和裂缝端部产生的动态应力场达及调整单元时,此时调整单元发生形变监产生前兆。当裂缝由深处向浅处传播,其端部的动态应力场达及自由面时,此时自由面用形变来满足自由面条件从而引起前兆。本文的讨论表明,震源两端的调整单元的同时性表明大震的发生为期不远了。因此调整单元对于预位移和裂缝的传播具有监视作用。本文以海城地震前兆特征为例讨论了这个问题。并由此认为组合模式中调整单元的象力作用比单向蠕裂断层面向震源区的传播更符合实际情况。     

Coupling of tectonic loading and earthquake fault slips at subduction zones

Because of the viscoelastic behaviour of the earth, accumulation of elastic strain energy by tectonic loading and release of such energy by earthquake fault slips at subduction zones may take place on different spatial scales. If the lithospheric plate is acted upon by distant tectonic forces, strain accumulation must occur in a broad region. However, an earthquake releases strain only in a region comparable to the size of the rupture area. A two-dimensional finite-element model of a subduction zone with viscoelastic rheology has been used to investigate the coupling of tectonic loading and earthquake fault slips. A fault lock-and-unlock technique is employed so that the amount of fault slip in an earthquake is not prescribed, but determined by the accumulated stress. The amount of earthquake fault slip as a fraction of the total relative plate motion depends on the relative sizes of the earthquake rupture area and the region of tectonic strain accumulation, as well as the rheology of the rock material. The larger the region of strain accumulation is compared to the earthquake rupture, the smaller is the earthquake fault slip. The reason for the limited earthquake fault slip is that the elastic shear stress in the asthenosphere induced by the earthquake resists the elastic rebound of the overlying plate. Since rapid permanent plate shortening is not observed at subduction zones, there must be either strain release over a large region or strain accumulation over a small region over earthquake cycles. The former can be achieved only by significant aseismic fault slip between large subduction earthquakes. The most likely mechanism for the latter is the accumulation of elastic strain around isolated locked asperities of the fault, which requires significant aseismic fault slip between asperities.     

The Holocene paleoseismicity of the Aremogna-Cinque Miglia Fault (Central Italy)

Geomorphic and trench investigations are used toanalyze the seismic potential of the Aremogna-CinqueMiglia fault, an active N- to NW-trending, W-facingnormal fault located in Central Apennines. Wereconstructed a complex 16 km-long, as much as 6m-high, fault scarp that displaces late Holocenesediments in the Aremogna and Cinque Miglia basins.The complex surface expression of the fault, withdouble sub-parallel scarp sections, a change in strikeof about 40^° and local complexity showingimportant horizontal component, appears to becontrolled by the presence of older tectoniclineaments. We opened two trenches across the faultscarp, used a quarry exposure, and reinterpreted atrench opened by Frezzotti and Giraudi (1989), to findthe geological evidence for three Holocene surfacefaulting earthquakes on the Aremogna-Cinque Migliafault. Based on radiocarbon dating and stratigraphicand climatic considerations timing of the events isconstrained between 800 B.C. and 1030 A.D., between3735 and 2940 B.C., and between 3540 and 5000 B.C.. The most recent event is not reported in the twomillennia-long Italian Catalogues of HistoricalSeismicity. We suggest that the most recent eventcould be one of the Middle Age earthquakes of unknownorigin for which several felt reports exist in Rome.Moreover, we also consider the hypothesis that one ofthe shocks of the ambiguous September 1349 earthquakesequence could be the Aremogna-Cinque Miglia mostrecent event. Anyway, based on historicalconsideration we indicate A.D. 1349 as the youngestpossible age for this event. Finally, we suggest theAremogna-Cinque Miglia fault is part of the easternsecondary Apennines seismogenic belt. The faultparameters we obtain for this fault (i.e., recurrence interval longer than 2000 yr, verticallong-term slip rate of 0.3–0.5 mm/yr and m 6.5–6.8 forthe event) can be used as a first hand reference tocharacterize the seismic behavior of other faultsalong this section of the Apennines.     

Geological evidence for strong historical earthquakes in an “aseismic” region: The Pollino case (Southern Italy)

The Pollino Range is the southernmost segment of the Southern Apennines at the boundary with the Calabrian Arc. While several strong earthquakes (magnitude 6.5–7.0) have occurred in nearby regions, the Pollino area has no known historical record of seismic events of magnitude > 5. We carried out an aerial photograph interpretation and a field survey of the Pollino fault (the major Quaternary normal fault of the area) in order to characterize geologically the seismic potential of this structure. We dug two sets of trenches across fault scarps within the apecies of latest Pleistocene to Holocene alluvial fans at the Masseria Quercia Marina (MQM) and Grotta Carbone (GC) sites, in the central segment of the southern Pollino Range front. At both sites we identified two surface faulting events affecting the alluvial fan deposits and two overlying colluvial units of historical age. The penultimate event produced a vertical offset of 80–90 cm at GC and 50–60 cm at MQM; while the last event produced a vertical offset of 40–50 cm at GC and few centimeters of offset at MQM. Detailed geomorphological field observations suggest that the two historical earthquakes reactivated the entire length of the Masseria Marzano-Civita segment of the Pollino fault (rupture length about 18 km). For events in this range of rupture length and vertical displacement, comparison with surface faulting earthquakes in the Apennines (and abroad) indicates a magnitude of 6.5–7.0. Therefore, the maximum potential earthquake and the seismic hazard of the Pollino area are significantly larger than that suggested by the available historical seismic catalogue.     

Distribution of postseismic slip on the Calaveras fault,California, following the 1984 M6.2 Morgan Hill earthquake

Repeating earthquakes (REs) are sequences of events that have virtually identical waveforms and are interpreted to represent fault asperities driven to failure by loading from aseismic creep on the surrounding fault surface at depth. To investigate the postseismic deformation after the 1984 M6.2 Morgan Hill earthquake, we identify RE sequences occurring on the central Calaveras fault between 1984 and 2005 using a combination of cross-correlation and spectral coherence techniques. Both the accelerated slip transients due to the earthquake as well as the return to interseismic background creep rates can be imaged from our dataset. A comparison between the regions of the fault that ruptured coseismically and the locations of the REs show that REs preferentially occur in areas adjacent to the coseismic rupture. Using calculated RE-derived subsurface slip distributions at 6 months and 18 months after the mainshock, we predict surface electronic distance meter (EDM) line length changes between stations near the Morgan Hill rupture area. The RE-derived slip model underpredicts a subset of the observed line-length changes. Inclusion of transient aseismic slip below the seismogenic zone is needed to better match the measured surface deformation.     

Structural setting of the Southern Apennine fold-and-thrust belt (Italy) at hypocentral depth: The Calore Valley case history

The reconstruction of the main structural features of the Southern Apennines (Italy), in correspondence with the focal volume of some strong earthquakes that have affected this chain, can be attempted by analysing reflection seismic lines and deep well logs in comparison with surface geology.For instance, the Calore Valley and its surroundings have been the object of intense hydrocarbon exploration, and a wealth of subsurface data is available. Moreover, this area was affected by the 1688 Sannio earthquake (macroseismic magnitude 7.1), and a new location has recently been proposed for the related causative fault system. The present work defines the structural setting of the Southern Apennine chain in correspondence with this new location, and compares it with similar cases along the Italian peninsula.The analysis was focussed on the reconstruction of deep tectonic units (formed by the buried Apulia carbonate platform succession), which generally correspond to the hypocentral depths of strong earthquakes along the axis of the Southern Apennines. The results show that the Apulia platform succession is affected by three main thrusts, locally accompanied by backthrusts. The top of this succession is relatively shallow: the maximum depth does not exceed 1.8 s TWT (i.e. about 3500 m b.s.l.), while minimum depths occur in correspondence with the ramp anticlines culminations, at ∼0.5 s TWT (i.e. at about 500 m b.s.l.). Moreover, data suggest that the underlying Paleozoic basement is possibly involved in thrusting.In a regional perspective, extensional seismogenic structures along the axis of the Southern Apennines seem to share some common characteristics. Indeed, they develop (i) in correspondence with an uplifted Paleozoic basement; (ii) at the rear of a set of thrusts that account for the shallow Apulia units; (iii) at the surface, in proximity to the leading edge of a surficial tectonic unit formed by the Apennine carbonate platform succession. The 1688 seismogenic fault system fits in with these common traits. In the light of this, we finally speculate that these common characteristics in the architecture of the chain could provide a key to the location of the major seismicity along the axis of the Southern Apennines and an interpretative model for the identification of possible areas of seismic gap in this part of the Italian peninsula.     

Structural setting of the Southern Apennine fold-and-thrust belt (Italy) at hypocentral depth: The Calore Valley case history

The reconstruction of the main structural features of the Southern Apennines (Italy), in correspondence with the focal volume of some strong earthquakes that have affected this chain, can be attempted by analysing reflection seismic lines and deep well logs in comparison with surface geology.For instance, the Calore Valley and its surroundings have been the object of intense hydrocarbon exploration, and a wealth of subsurface data is available. Moreover, this area was affected by the 1688 Sannio earthquake (macroseismic magnitude 7.1), and a new location has recently been proposed for the related causative fault system. The present work defines the structural setting of the Southern Apennine chain in correspondence with this new location, and compares it with similar cases along the Italian peninsula.The analysis was focussed on the reconstruction of deep tectonic units (formed by the buried Apulia carbonate platform succession), which generally correspond to the hypocentral depths of strong earthquakes along the axis of the Southern Apennines. The results show that the Apulia platform succession is affected by three main thrusts, locally accompanied by backthrusts. The top of this succession is relatively shallow: the maximum depth does not exceed 1.8 s TWT (i.e. about 3500 m b.s.l.), while minimum depths occur in correspondence with the ramp anticlines culminations, at 0.5 s TWT (i.e. at about 500 m b.s.l.). Moreover, data suggest that the underlying Paleozoic basement is possibly involved in thrusting.In a regional perspective, extensional seismogenic structures along the axis of the Southern Apennines seem to share some common characteristics. Indeed, they develop (i) in correspondence with an uplifted Paleozoic basement; (ii) at the rear of a set of thrusts that account for the shallow Apulia units; (iii) at the surface, in proximity to the leading edge of a surficial tectonic unit formed by the Apennine carbonate platform succession. The 1688 seismogenic fault system fits in with these common traits. In the light of this, we finally speculate that these common characteristics in the architecture of the chain could provide a key to the location of the major seismicity along the axis of the Southern Apennines and an interpretative model for the identification of possible areas of seismic gap in this part of the Italian peninsula.