Understanding global change: A cognitive perspective on communicating through stories

Human behavior must be changed in order to ameliorate the adverse effects of global change. However, numerous studies have shown that durable change is difficult to achieve unless people have an adequate understanding of the problem and of appropriate behavioral solutions. Creating such an understanding has not been easy; the very nature of global change makes effective communication difficult. This paper proposes that one reason information has been unsuccessful is that it is not generally structured to take advantage of the way people process information. The cognitive processes involved in information acquisition and the special problems associated with communicating about global change are discussed. This discussion is used to identify those informational characteristics that will facilitate the transfer of information about global change. Stories (also referred to as case-studies or analogies) are suggested as one structure that encapsulates these characteristics; the role of stories in information transfer is elaborated upon. Though written from the point of view of presenting information to the public so that it creates understanding and impacts behavior, the paper is also relevant for scientists who wish to effectively communicate their ideas to the media and to researchers in other disciplines.     

Do people “personally experience” global warming,and if so how,and does it matter?

For most people, the direct and personally observable signals of climate change should be difficult to detect amid the variability of everyday weather. Yet, previous research has shown that some people believe they have personally experienced global warming. Through four related studies, our paper sheds light on what signals of global warming some people believe they are detecting, why, and whether or not it matters. These studies were conducted using population survey and climatic data from a single county in Michigan. Study 1 found that 27% of the county's adult residents felt that they had personally experienced global warming. Study 2 – based on content analysis of people's open-ended responses – found that the most frequently described personal experiences of global warming were changes in seasons (36%), weather (25%), lake levels (24%), animals and plants (20%), and snowfall (19%). Study 3 – based on NOAA climatic data – found that most, but not all, of these detected signals are borne out in the climatic record. Study 4 – using the survey data – found that personal experience of global warming matters in that it predicts perceptions of local risk of global warming, controlling for demographics, political affiliation, and cultural beliefs about national policy outcomes. We conclude that perceived personal experience of global warming appears to heighten people's perception of the risks, likely through some combination of direct experience, vicarious experience (e.g., news media stories), and social construction.     

全球对地观测球体幕显示中图像处理技术

覆盖全球的气象信息在球体幕上进行显示具有很强的立体感和纵深感,在多个行业具有应用价值。基于中国气象局的气象资料,在国内首次研制了全球对地观测球体幕显示系统软件并能够稳定运行。本文主要介绍了系统的核心技术图像处理的实现。图像处理包括两个步骤:图像增强和图像变形。图像增强处理增强了包含大量气象信息的图像显示效果,图像变形处理通过几何校正、图像拼接等技术实现将备投图像从平面显示正确投影到球体幕上。经过系统图像处理后,覆盖全球的观测资料能在球体幕上正确、无缝、无变形、无失真显示,其利用模拟真实地球的球体屏幕,让观众从太空的角度直观形象地体验全球气象信息展示。     

In it for the money,the environment,or the community? Motives for being involved in community energy initiatives

Community energy initiatives can foster a sustainable energy transition by promoting sustainable energy behaviour in the communities in which they are embedded. This raises the question of what motivates people to become involved in these initiatives. We investigated the importance of financial, environmental, and communal motives for initiative involvement. We propose that communal motives (i.e., being involved in one’s local community) may be related to initiative involvement, as community energy initiatives not only aim to promote sustainable energy behaviour but also enable people to be involved in their community. Across three studies, respondents rated financial and environmental motives as more important than communal motives for their involvement in community energy initiatives. Yet, environmental and communal motives were uniquely related to initiative involvement, while financial motives were not. The discrepancy between which motives people rate as important and which motives actually relate to their initiative involvement suggests that financial motives are an overrated motive, while communal motives are an underrated motive for involvement in community energy initiatives. Our results suggest that targeting communal motives may be an additional way to enhance involvement in community energy initiatives and foster sustainable behaviour among people, who may not otherwise be interested in environmental protection.     

Assessing adaptive capacity to tropical cyclones in the East coast of India: a pilot study of public response to cyclone warning information

Ability to respond positively to climate hazards (also called adaptive capacity) first requires a perception of the risk due to that hazard and then formulation, evaluation and implementation of response by the exposed units with the view to reducing impacts. From a policy perspective, facilitating the process of perception of risk (and sometimes formulation, evaluation and implementation of response) often requires some kind of generation and communication of information for use by the exposed units. For example, the cyclone early warning system is a policy intervention which aims to generate and communicate information to the people about a possible cyclone occurrence, so as to facilitate timely and appropriate response such as evacuating the risk prone areas and/or taking refuge in a cyclone shelter by the people in danger. Anecdotal evidence suggests that many a time the cyclone warning message is not able to generate the desired response from the target audience. An understanding of the factors underlying the process of perception, formulation, evaluation and response by the exposed units to manage cyclone risk is required to close the gap between the desired response and the actual response by the exposed units to the warning information. In this paper we attempt to identify such factors in the Indian context. We conducted an exploratory study on the East coast of India to identify the factors that affect the perceptual and evaluative processes underlying the ‘warning-response’ process i.e. evacuation behavior of the exposed units once they have received the cyclone warning. The findings highlight some important factors that could be addressed to improve the warning-response process and hence enhance the ability of people to respond to cyclone risk.     

气象电视传媒服务技术的自动化处理

通过电视传播气象资讯已经成为气象服务社会的一个重要渠道。气象电视传媒服务技术旨在实现电视自动播放本地化实时气象服务信息,以满足公众及时而直观地了解当地气象资讯的需求和政府相关部门等用户参与发布信息的工作需求。主要研究的内容有:1信息自动生成处理技术(气象信息自动采集、用户互联网信息发布以及信息自动转化为视频、图像、文字的处理技术);2实时气象信息向特定终端的自动传输技术。     

龙凤山区域大气本底台站反应性气体观测质量控制

实现对大气反应性气体的业务化观测是中国气象局大气成分观测的重要目标内容之一.为了满足大气本底观测业务的目标要求,在龙凤山区域大气本底观测站反应性气体观测系统2年来的业务试运行的实践经验的基础上,着重分析了涉及质量控制技术中零/跨检查和多点校准的执行情况,确定了执行零/跨检查、多点校准和零/跨调整的指导性频率,提出了基于校准信息的数据订正方法,简要阐述标准量值传递方案和仪器测试、检验和维护中所应注意的内容.     

Communicating climate change risks in a skeptical world

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been extraordinarily successful in the task of knowledge synthesis and risk assessment. However, the strong scientific consensus on the detection, attribution, and risks of climate change stands in stark contrast to widespread confusion, complacency and denial among policymakers and the public. Risk communication is now a major bottleneck preventing science from playing an appropriate role in climate policy. Here I argue that the ability of the IPCC to fulfill its mission can be enhanced through better understanding of the mental models of the audiences it seeks to reach, then altering the presentation and communication of results accordingly. Few policymakers are trained in science, and public understanding of basic facts about climate change is poor. But the problem is deeper. Our mental models lead to persistent errors and biases in complex dynamic systems like the climate and economy. Where the consequences of our actions spill out across space and time, our mental models have narrow boundaries and focus on the short term. Where the dynamics of complex systems are conditioned by multiple feedbacks, time delays, accumulations and nonlinearities, we have difficulty recognizing and understanding feedback processes, underestimate time delays, and do not understand basic principles of accumulation or how nonlinearities can create regime shifts. These problems arise not only among laypeople but also among highly educated elites with significant training in science. They arise not only in complex systems like the climate but also in familiar contexts such as filling a bathtub. Therefore they cannot be remedied merely by providing more information about the climate, but require different modes of communication, including experiential learning environments such as interactive simulations.     

雷电资料分析处理系统的设计与应用

为了充分发挥雷电资料的作用,解决资料的质量问题,建立雷电综合数据库及其资料分析处理加工平台。基于JavaScript的WebGIS框架和CIMISS数据库,设计开发了具有数据处理和质量控制、分析和应用功能的雷电资料分析处理系统,建立了以闪电、大气电场、雷暴日和雷击灾害数据为主要内容的雷电信息数据库。该系统能够实时监测卫星、雷达、闪电、大气电场等多种探测信息,开展雷电数据的质量控制,回演、动态播放历史信息,具有信息查询统计、分析绘制曲线、制作雷电报告等多项功能,为防雷业务、科研和服务工作提供方便、高效的应用工具和技术平台。以2015年6月1—2日湖北监利县的一次强雷电天气过程为例,通过对这次雷电过程的应用实践表明:雷电资料分析处理系统闪电监测准确,图表绘制快速,统计分析结果适用,能够满足防雷业务及科研工作的需要,为高效开展雷电灾害防御和服务提供了高效的基础性平台。     

Personal harm and support for climate change mitigation policies: Evidence from 10 U.S. communities impacted by extreme weather

A growing body of research examines the role of extreme weather experience—as one of the most personal, visceral (and increasingly frequent and severe) impacts of climate change—in shaping views on climate change. A remaining question is whether the experience of an extreme weather event increases climate change concern via experiential learning or reinforces existing views via motivated reasoning. Building on this work, we explore the relationship between personal experience and climate change policy preferences using surveys in 10 communities that experienced extreme weather events (3 tornadoes, 3 floods, 2 wildfires, 1 hurricane and 1 landslide). We find that self-reported personal harm aligns with objective measures of event impacts and that personal harm (i.e., experience) is associated with higher levels of policy support. However, we do not find that objective measures of event impacts are related to policy support. Though political ideology (i.e., motivated reasoning) dominates our model of policy support in predictable ways, personal harm moderates this relationship suggesting that conservatives reporting higher levels of personal harm from the event are, on average, more likely to express support for climate policy than those reporting lower levels of harm. We postulate that while extreme weather events may serve as teachable moments on climate change, their lessons may only reach conservatives who feel personally harmed, even in the communities most affected.     

How do host–migrant proximities shape attitudes toward internal climate migrants?

Climate change is predicted to cause voluntary and forced internal migration on an unprecedented scale in the coming decades. Yet, research on host communities that will be on the front lines in receiving the climate migrants has thus far been a neglected area within climate change research. Inspired by previous research on psychological distance’s impact on people’s behavior and attitudes, this article develops a conceptual framework proposing that spatial, attitudinal, experiential, and social proximities between migrants and host community members are central to understanding how attitudes toward internal climate migrants form and develop. Using multivariate regression analysis, the article applies the framework to a survey conducted among over 630 long-term residents in Satkhira District of Bangladesh, one of the most climate-exposed districts in the country. Supporting our hypotheses, we find evidence that host–migrant proximities shape attitudes toward internal climate migrants. Although the host community’s capacity to receive migrants matters for attitudes toward them, the results for the proximity variables underscore that these attitudes are profoundly relational, positional, and complex. In particular, we provide evidence that shorter spatial distance to highly exposed areas and attitudinal distance to fellow citizens in terms of values and worldviews improve host community members’ attitudes toward migrants. Further, the results for social proximity bring out the positional nature of attitudes, as they become more negative when socio-economic differences to migrants increase.     

Changing places: The role of sense of place in perceptions of social,environmental and overdevelopment risks

An increasing focus on place based planning and adaptation processes brings to the fore the importance of understanding the situated experience of social and environmental change. Populations do not respond uniformly to environmental and social change, and given that consensus is needed to successfully achieve inclusive adaptation it is important to understand how and why people are more sensitive to certain changes and risks over others. Using a sense of place lens, we investigate how an individual’s relationship with their property and their town shapes their sensitivity to a range of risks. To investigate this, we conducted a survey in towns in South Africa, UK and France (n = 707) to examine the relationship between multiple dimensions of sense of place with place-based risks. We find that relationship with place matters differently for perception of social, environmental and overdevelopment risk. In particular, we find that feeling safe in place correlates with reduced perceptions of social risks but increases the likelihood of perceiving environmental risk. The role of place in risk perception is stronger at the property scale than the town scale, and it is only at the property scale that place meaning is related to risk perception. Our findings contribute to theory on the subjective experience of place-based risks and has implications for how social and environmental change can be communicated and managed.     

基于WebGIS的沁河流域气象站雨量资料共享系统

以沁河流域气象站雨量资料共享系统为实例,从基础地理信息数据格式转换、区域站点地理信息数据文件建立、地图文档和服务的实现、Web应用开发、雨量资料处理等方面,介绍了在ArcGIS Server框架下WebGIS的快速构建过程,并介绍了沁河流域区域气象站雨量资料处理方法、WebGIS环境下的雨量监控、GIS测量工具应用及该系统在市、县气象局汛期业务、服务工作中的应用效果。     

自旋稳定静止气象卫星扫描辐射计水汽通道外定标方法研究

该文利用探空资料, 用辐射传输模式LOWTRAN 7, 计算了卫星的入瞳辐射率, 确定了FY-2和GMS-5卫星多通道扫描辐射计水汽通道定标系数.由于星蚀期间星上温度变化迅速, 星蚀期间的外定标考虑了星上黑体定标, 并用实际观测值和探空资料做了检验。通过近半年的运行, 这种方法取得了较好的效果.     

基于气象预警信息的大连气象微博评论情感分析及发布策略建议

微博在气象预警信息传播及气象部门收集社会公众信息反馈中发挥了积极作用,并产生了海量级的交互信息,客观分析此类信息对于气象部门及时引领舆论导向和调整发布策略具有较高的参考价值。文中基于2017年1月1日—2020年7月3日大连市重大气象灾害过程,运用自然语言处理、情感分析等方法对大连气象微博中与气象预警相关的评论内容进行情感分析研究。结果表明：公众关注最多的是天气预报准确率、天气过程对于生活影响以及信息发布的及时性。公众对重大天气过程特别是致灾天气过程本身负面评价多于正面,发布策略应根据气象灾害持续时间及时调整预警信息内容和发布频次;公众对大风、冰雹等气象灾害预警信号关注度随季节变化明显,发布策略应针对旅游业、养殖户、种植户等提出专业防范对策;针对发布频率高的大风预警信号,有必要调整业务发布规范,同时关注灾后事件信息的跟踪发布;研究发现,负面情感主要针对天气预报的准确度。     

国际气候治理中的公正转型议题：概念辨析与治理进展

国际气候治理中的公正转型议题涉及就业、关乎民生,是各国都很关注的政策领域之一,因此也被视为是支持应对气候变化的一种重要社会机制。近年来,国际社会积极推动建设气候治理公正转型制度体系,各国也在所制定的国家应对气候变化战略和规划中越来越多地提出与公正转型和就业相关的目标与措施。公正转型议题在国际气候治理进程中主流化的趋势给中国参与和引领全球气候治理带来了新的机遇与挑战。中国应加强关于该问题的基础性研究;在国内应对气候变化的行动中充分考虑该问题,保障受影响就业群体获得社会公正对待;总结具体实践经验;在政策领域协调上做好新的布局;积极参与《联合国气候变化框架公约》下公正转型治理体系的构建中。     

Comparing the atmosphere to a bathtub: effectiveness of analogy for reasoning about accumulation

Understanding the process of accumulation is fundamental to recognising the magnitude and speed of emissions reduction required to stabilise atmospheric CO₂ and, hence, global temperature. This research investigated the effectiveness of analogy for building understanding of accumulation among non-experts. Two studies tested the effects of analogy and graphical information on: (1) performance on a CO₂ stabilisation task; and (2) preferred level of action on climate change. Study 1 was conducted with a sample of undergraduate students and Study 2, with a sample of the Australian public. In the student sample, analogical processing significantly improved task performance when information about emission rates was presented in text but not when it was presented in graph format. It was also associated with greater preference for strong action on climate change. When tested with the public, analogy and information format independently influenced task performance. Furthermore, there was a marginal effect of education such that the analogy especially might have helped those with at least high school attainment. Our results show that analogy can improve non-experts’ understanding of CO₂ accumulation but that using graphs to convey emissions rate information is detrimental to such improvements. The results should be of interest to climate change communicators, advocates, and policy-makers.     

Is resilience socially constructed? Empirical evidence from Fiji,Ghana, Sri Lanka,and Vietnam

The objective of this paper is to better understand the various individual and household factors that influence resilience, that is, people⬢s ability to respond adequately to shocks and stressors. One of our hypotheses is that resilience does not simply reflect the expected effects of quantifiable factors such as level of assets, or even less quantifiable social processes such as people⬢s experience, but is also determined by more subjective dimensions related to people⬢s perceptions of their ability to cope, adapt or transform in the face of adverse events. Data collected over two years in Fiji, Ghana, Sri Lanka and Vietnam confirms the importance of wealth in the recovery process of households affected by shocks and stressors. However our results challenge the idea that within communities, assets are a systematic differentiator in people⬢s response to adverse events. The findings regarding social capital are mixed and call for more research: social capital had a strong positive influence on resilience at the community level, yet our analysis failed to demonstrate any tangible positive correlation at the household level. Finally, the data confirm that, like vulnerability, resilience is at least in part socially constructed, endogenous to individual and groups, and hence contingent on knowledge, attitudes to risk, culture and subjectivity.     

How do small-holder farmers understand insurance,and how much do they want it? Evidence from Africa

Innovative micro-insurance schemes can be one tool to help African small-holder farmers cope with climate variability and change. A critical challenge for implementing such risk transfer programs, however, is helping participants understand how insurance operates, and there is evidence that farmers with a poor understanding of insurance are less likely to use it. One of the proposed tools to help farmers understand insurance is a simulation game, through which farmers can gain first-hand experience with a functioning insurance market. This paper reports on the results of experiments in Ethiopia and Malawi, investigating farmers’ understanding and the effectiveness of a role-playing game at improving that understanding. Our results suggest a generally poor understanding of basic insurance concepts, and are consistent with past results in suggesting that better understanding correlates with greater willingness to purchase it. Our results also suggest that role-playing games may be an important tool for improving understanding, but that they do not necessarily out-perform more conventional training practices.     

基于Android的移动气象信息服务系统设计与实现

为了丰富移动气象信息服务手段提升服务能力,使用Java,C#,VB,Delphi编程,开发了基于智能终端的移动气象信息服务系统。系统以用户体验为切入点结合智能终端特有的设备特性和移动应用软件特性提供创新型移动气象产品。该系统是一种集气象信息处理、发布和接收为一体的服务系统,用户可以通过该系统随时获取气象信息。介绍了系统的架构设计与客户端设计。详细阐述了采用Java技术在Android平台上研发移动客户端软件过程中所涉及问题的解决方法,包括手势控制、GIS服务、软件管理、系统稳定性和兼容性等问题的解决。