基于位置分配模型的避震疏散最优路径规划

在地震易发区科学规划避震疏散路径,对人口聚集、密度大的高等学校师生的生命及财产安全具有重要意义。本文基于对吉林大学朝阳校区空间分布信息的提取和相关资料的调查,利用位置分配(location allocation, LA)模型、迪杰斯特拉(Dijkstra)最优路径算法,结合服务域分析、最优路径分析等方法实现了对研究区白天、夜间两种模拟情景避震疏散路径的科学规划。结果表明：在高等学校中做避震疏散计划时,可直接将运动场、室外篮球场、广场、空旷草地、部分面积较大的停车场作为备用避震场所;在疏散方向不交汇、不冲突、避震场所可容纳人数较多时,LA模型、Dijkstra算法均能够满足避震疏散规划的需求。针对校园内存在的避震安全场所空间分布不平衡的问题,提出了均衡空旷场地分布、增加避震疏散设施、加强避震疏散技能等完善高等学校地震逃生体系的建议。     

城市洪涝灾害应急疏散模拟及其效率-公平权衡分析

对城市洪涝灾害下的人群疏散过程进行精细化模拟、探究群体疏散效率与个体洪涝风险暴露公平性之间的权衡关系(效率-公平之争)可以为城市洪灾应急管理提供重要决策支撑。本研究以深圳市某居民区为研究区,构建基于主体(Agent-based)的洪灾应急疏散模型,分析疏散人口数量、避难所容量分配、不同风险区居民分批疏散顺序以及批次之间间隔时间等因素对洪灾应急疏散的协同影响,探究疏散过程中效率与公平的权衡关系。研究表明：疏散效率主要受避难所容量分配方式和疏散人口数量影响,疏散公平性主要受不同洪涝风险区居民的疏散次序影响;洪灾应急管理部门应综合考虑人口分布和交通路网情况,按实际需求分配避难所容量;在疏散管理中,应考虑洪涝风险分区,引导居民以一定次序分批疏散,并合理控制批次间隔时间,从而实现城市洪涝疏散效率和公平的权衡。     

新疆乌鲁木齐市地质灾害分布规律及易发程度分区研究

乌鲁木齐市作为新疆自治区首府,地理位置重要,该市区域发育的地质灾害类型主要为地面塌陷、崩塌、滑坡、泥石流,地裂缝和地面沉降不发育,共有地质灾害点274处。通过对改市主要地质灾害类型的分布规律和影响因素进行研究,发现受地貌单元、人口分布及活动范围不同,地质灾害点分布不均。地质灾害的地貌差异较为明显。在此基础上,对该市区域内的地质灾害易发区进行评价,将辖区内的地质灾害易发区划分为地质灾害高易发区、中易发区、低易发区及不易发区4个大区,为当地政府开展地质灾害防治工作提供了可靠的科学依据。     

基于InSAR同震形变场的烈度评估研究

在发生破坏性地震之后,及时地获取人口聚集区的震害状况,对灾后救援工作有着十分重要的意义。利用合成孔径雷达差分干涉测量技术,可以快速、大范围地获取震区的地表形变。然而,如何基于同震形变精确地获取人口聚集区的地震烈度,进而为震后救援提供及时准确的灾情信息,还是一项有待研究的科研难题。本文以2010年4月14日青海玉树7.1级地震为例,利用人口聚集区的同震形变开展了地震烈度的评估。结果表明,利用差分干涉测量技术获取的地震同震形变,可以初步地评估人口聚集区地震烈度的分布状况。经过与实地调查烈度对比验证,评估精度达到74%左右,这表明基于地震形变的烈度评估结果与震后调查公布的结果有较高的一致性。地表形变资料对于地震烈度的早期评估、震区受灾状况的快速认识具有着重要的参考价值。     

地震诱发滑坡空间分布概率近实时预测研究——以2022年6月1日四川芦山地震为例

2022年6月1日17时00分,继2013年芦山地震,时隔9年四川省雅安市芦山县再次发生M_S6.1级地震。地震是诱发山区地质灾害的重要因素之一,往往造成大量的人员伤亡和财产损失。快速准确地获取地震诱发滑坡的空间分布范围对震后应急救援和临时安置点选取至关重要。本文基于全球地震诱发滑坡数据库,采用深度森林算法,建立了地震诱发滑坡空间分布概率近实时预测模型。将该模型应用于“6·1”芦山地震诱发滑坡的快速预测,在震后1 h内获取了滑坡空间分布概率预测结果,并第一时间到达震区进行地质灾害应急调查与模型复核。调查表明,本次地震诱发地质灾害以小型崩塌、滑坡为主,高易发区主要分布在芦山县北部和宝兴县西部的交汇区,断层上盘滑坡数量明显高于下盘。对比模型预测结果与宝兴东河流域地质灾害现场调查数据,发现模型预测准确率达80%以上,特别是相对较大规模的滑坡均发生在模型预测的高易发区,说明模型可以弥补震后现场调查与遥感数据获取时效性方面的不足,为震后应急救援提供科学支撑。     

GIS支持下CF与Logistic回归模型耦合的九寨沟景区滑坡易发性评价

2017年8月8日九寨沟M_S7.0地震诱发了数以千计的崩滑体,产生的大量松散固体碎屑在降雨作用下极易启动转化为新的滑坡或泥石流形成次生灾害,因此对九寨沟景区进行滑坡易发性评价尤为必要。基于震前、震后高精度遥感影像对比分析结合现场调查,共获取1047处滑坡,总面积为3.88 km2。在分析滑坡发育分布与影响因素关系的基础上,本文选取了构造因子、地形因子、地质因子及其他因子等9个指标,采用确定性系数(CF)模型、逻辑回归(Logistic)模型以及两种模型耦合分析进行滑坡易发性评价。研究结果表明,坡度、坡向、高程和地层岩性是影响滑坡分布的主要因子;研究区被划分为低易发区(60.72%)、中度易发区(24.18%)、高易发区(9.89%)和极高易发区(5.21%),高-极高易发区基本沿沟谷分布,面积为99 km2,其中熊猫海、老虎海周边均为滑坡极高易发区;采用耦合模型比单一模型评价结果更加合理,其结果可作为景区滑坡防治和分段分时开放的参考依据。     

基于GIS的白龙江流域甘肃段滑坡易发性评价

在甘肃省白龙江流域地质灾害资料收集及现场调查的基础上, 统计分析了该区滑坡发育与地层岩性、坡度、坡向、高程、断裂、植被等因素之间的关系, 建立了白龙江流域滑坡易发性评价指标体系。采用基于GIS的层次分析法评价模型, 完成了滑坡易发性分区评价, 将研究区滑坡按易发程度划分为高易发区、中易发区、低易发区和极低易发区, 其中, 高易发区占研究区总面积的13.59%, 主要分布在断裂带、白龙江两侧以及软弱岩土体分布的区域; 中易发区占27.85%;主要分布在白龙江支流以及主要道路两侧的一定范围内; 低易发区占33.09%, 主要分布在海拔相对较高、植被覆盖度较高、基本上无断裂带通过的区域; 其余区域为极低易发区, 占25.46%。对比分析显示评价结果与实际滑坡发育情况吻合, 可以较好地反映区内滑坡灾害发育的总体特征。      

西宁市地质灾害及防治对策

通过对西宁市地质灾害的分布特点、危害程度、形成原因的分析，认为该区地质灾害在空间分布上具有水平、垂直分带性，时间分布上表现为同发性和不稳定性，并结合城市建设发展规划的要求，将西宁市地质灾害分为危险区和易发区，对地质灾害方面提出了相应的防治对策。     

基于GIS与确定性系数分析方法的汶川地震滑坡易发性评价

汶川Ms 80级大地震诱发了数以万计的滑坡灾害。在大约48678 km2的滑坡影响区域内,作者采用震后遥感影像解译并结合野外调查的方法,共解译出48007处滑坡。应用GIS技术,建立了汶川地震诱发滑坡灾害及相关地形、地质空间数据库。采用地震滑坡确定性系数分析方法,分析了地震滑坡关于地震烈度、岩性、坡度、断层、高程、坡向、河流与公路等8个因素的易发程度。基于GIS栅格分析方法,分别对16种不同影响因子组合类型进行地震滑坡易发性评价。最后,应用AUC（Area Under Curve,评价曲线下面积）方法得到最佳因子组合及其对应的评价结果,使用自然分类法则方法将研究区按滑坡易发程度分为极高易发区、高易发区、中易发区、低易发区与极低易发区5类,极高易发区与高易发区面积之和约1169046km2,占研究区总面积的2402%,其中发育滑坡面积为52484 km2,占滑坡总面积的7373%。结果表明了极高与高易发区与实际滑坡之间有着良好的一致性,方法的评价结果成功率（AUC值）达到82107%。     

基于三维地震勘探资料的因果岸地裂缝成因分析

三维地震勘探成果数据包含丰富的三维地质信息，它保存了受地裂缝灾害影响而改变的地层结构、地球物理场信息变化的各类特征。本文利用因果岸三维地震勘探数据，分析了该区地裂缝的成因，对控制其形成的三个内因——粘弹性地层、古潜山起伏形态及含水砂层空间分布进行了半定量化分析，为地裂缝灾害易发区预测研究提供了依据。     

Agent-Based Modeling and Analysis of Hurricane Evacuation Procedures for the Florida Keys

The unique geography of the Florida Keys presents both high risk of hurricane landfall and exceptional vulnerability to the effects of a hurricane strike. Inadequate hurricane shelters in the Keys make evacuation the only option for most residents, but the sole access road can become impassable well in advance of a major storm. These extraordinary conditions create challenges for emergency managers who must ensure that appropriate emergency plans are in place and to ensure that an orderly exodus can occur without stranding large numbers of people along an evacuation route with inadequate shelter capacity. This study attempts to answer two questions: (1) What is the minimum clearance time needed to evacuate all residents participating in an evacuation of the Florida Keys in advance of a major hurricane for 92,596 people – a population size calculated based on the 2000 US Census population data, census undercounts, and the number of tourists estimated to be in the area? (2) If a hurricane makes landfall in the Keys while the evacuation is in progress, how many residents will need to be accommodated if the evacuation route becomes impassable? The authors conducted agent-based microsimulations to answer the questions. Simulation results suggest that it takes 20 h and 11 min to 20 h and 14 min to evacuate the 92,596 people. This clearance time is less than the Florida state mandated 24-h clearance time limit. If one assumes that people evacuate in a 48-h period and the traffic flow from the Keys would follow that observed in the evacuation from Hurricane Georges, then a total of 460 people may be stranded if the evacuation route becomes impassable 48 h after an evacuation order is issued. If the evacuation route becomes impassable 40 h after an evacuation order is issued, then 14,000 people may be stranded.     

Computer-based Model for Flood Evacuation Emergency Planning

A computerized simulation model for capturing human behavior during flood emergency evacuation is developed using a system dynamics approach. It simulates the acceptance of evacuation orders by the residents of the area under threat; number of families in the process of evacuation; and time required for all evacuees to reach safety. The model is conceptualized around the flooding conditions (physical and management) and the main set of social and mental factors that determine human behavior before and during the flood evacuation. The number of families under the flood threat, population in the process of evacuation, inundation of refuge routes, flood conditions (precipitation, river elevation, etc.), and different flood warnings and evacuation orders related variables are among the large set of variables included in the model. They are linked to the concern that leads to the danger recognition, which triggers evacuation decisions that determine the number of people being evacuated. The main purpose of the model is to assess the effectiveness of different flood emergency management procedures. Each procedure consists of the choice of flood warning method, warning consistency, timing of evacuation order, coherence of the community, upstream flooding conditions, and set of weights assigned to different warning distribution methods. Model use and effectiveness are tested through the evaluation of the effectiveness of different flood evacuation emergency options in the Red River Basin, Canada.     

Large Scale Rockfall Reach Susceptibility Maps in La Cabrera Sierra (Madrid) performed with GIS and Dynamic Analysis at 1:5,000

For the testing of the effect on the tsunami prevention facilities, a simplified methodfor tsunami risk assessment was suggested without wave run-up analysis. This methodis proposed using calculated offshore tsunami waveform and field reconnaissance suchas the seawall height, time necessary for residents' evacuation and tsunami warninginsurance. Then, two normalized values are evaluated; one is the ratio of calculatedmaximum tsunami height to seawall height, the other is the ratio of time betweentsunami over-topping and evacuation completion to total time required for evacuation.These two values are used to qualitatively estimate the safety of residents and the effectof tsunami prevention facilities, eliminating the necessity to compute complicatedtsunami run-up onshore.     

The Role of Education in the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program

Tsunami education activities, materials, and programs are recognized by the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) as the essential tool for near-source tsunami mitigation. Prior to the NTHMP, there were no state tsunami education programs outside of Hawaii and few earthquake education materials included tsunami hazards. In the first year of the NTHMP, a Strategic Plan was developed providing the framework for mitigation projects in the program. The Strategic Plan identifies education as the first of five mitigation strategic planning areas and targets a number of user groups, including schools, businesses, tourists, seasonal workers, planners, government officials, and the general public. In the 6 years of the NTHMP tsunami education programs have been developed in all five Pacific States and include print, electronic and video/film products, curriculum, signage, fairs and workshops, and public service announcements. Multi-state education projects supported by the NTHMP include TsuInfo, a bi-monthly newsletter, and Surviving a Tsunami, a booklet illustrating lessons from the 1960 Chilean tsunami. An additional education component is provided by the Public Affairs Working Group (PAWG) that promotes media coverage of tsunamis and the NTHMP. Assessment surveys conducted in Oregon, Washington, and Northern California show an increase in tsunami awareness and recognition of tsunami hazards among the general population since the NTHMP inception.     

Planning for Tsunami-Resilient Communities

The National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) Steering Committee consists of representatives from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the states of Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington. The program addresses three major components: hazard assessment, warning guidance, and mitigation. The first two components, hazard assessment and warning guidance, are led by physical scientists who, using research and modeling methods, develop products that allow communities to identify their tsunami hazard areas and receive more accurate and timely warning information. The third component, mitigation, is led by the emergency managers who use their experience and networks to translate science and technology into user-friendly planning and education products. Mitigation activities focus on assisting federal, state, and local officials who must plan for and respond to disasters, and for the public that is deeply affected by the impacts of both the disaster and the pre-event planning efforts. The division between the three components softened as NTHMP scientists and emergency managers worked together to develop the best possible products for the users given the best available science, technology, and planning methods using available funds.     

交通仿真软件在地铁工程设计中的应用实例

本文介绍了TransCAD、GTMS、AnyLogic三个仿真软件,以天津地铁6号线初期设计为应用背景,给出在单条地铁线路设计中,客流预测、牵引计算、车站仿真三个环节的应用举例,说明在地铁设计中引入此类软件的实际意义和效益。     

溃坝应急撤离研究与实践综述

溃坝撤离技术理论对编制撤离预案和指导撤离行动至关重要,目前研究主要集中在影响因素分析、溃坝洪水-人流-路径叠加分析、人员死亡数量规律统计等方面,但溃坝撤离基础数据不足,环境-地物-人群三元耦合过程中主要因素互馈机制不清,预警时间研究不深,相关理论发展受限。对近几十年溃坝撤离技术理论研究和实践进行综述,总结了国内外溃坝撤离实践和溃坝撤离影响因素、过程模拟、预案评价等主要成果,研究了预警时间和临界预警时间概念,展望了今后主要发展方向。应还原典型溃坝案例撤离过程,基于人类行为和社会组织机制揭示溃坝撤离系统动力学特征,探索临界预警时间与溃坝生命损失之间的定量关系,促进溃坝撤离技术理论与应用发展。     

Measuring Tsunami Preparedness in Coastal Washington,United States

A survey of over 300 residents and visitors (non-residents) perceptions of tsunami hazards was carried out along the west coast of Washington State during August and September 2001. The study quantified respondents preparedness to deal with tsunami hazards. Despite success in disseminating hazard information, levels of preparedness were recorded at low to moderate levels. This finding is discussed in regard to the way in which people interpret hazard information and its implications for the process of adjustment adoption or preparedness. These data are also used to define strategies for enhancing preparedness. Strategies involve maintaining and enhancing hazard knowledge and risk perception, promoting the development of preparatory intentions, and facilitating the conversion of these intentions into sustained preparedness. A second phase of work began in February 2003, consisting of a series of focus groups which examined beliefs regarding preparedness and warnings, and a school survey. Preliminary findings of this work are presented.     

大直径单人救援钻孔在某煤矿避难硐室应急逃生系统中的应用

目前,大直径钻孔救援技术多用在矿井发生事故后的快速紧急救援,属于“事后”被动等待救援,为实现传统的被动等待救援向积极自主逃生转变,将大直径救援钻孔与矿井避难硐室结合,提前构建灾害应急逃生系统。结合大直径单人救援钻孔在某煤矿避难硐室应急逃生系统中应用实例,分析了救援钻孔的布置、结构设计原则,重点研究了救援钻孔的成孔方法选择、分级扩孔工序、钻进参数、钻井液工艺、成井设备等钻探技术,并对大直径救援钻孔的适用条件进行了研究,研究成果可为类似矿山实施大直径单人救援钻孔提供借鉴和参考。     

Progress in NTHMP Hazard Assessment

The Hazard Assessment component of the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program has completed 22 modeling efforts covering 113 coastal communities with an estimated population of 1.2 million residents that are at risk. Twenty-three evacuation maps have also been completed. Important improvements in organizational structure have been made with the addition of two State geotechnical agency representatives to Steering Group membership, and progress has been made on other improvements suggested by program reviewers.