The warmest year 2015 in the instrumental record and its comparison with year 1998

本文利用CRU、NASA和NOAA的近地面气温异常(SATA)数据,对比分析了2015年和1998年的温度异常分布特征,证实了2015年是有观测记录以来温度最暖的一年,并进一步利用EEMD方法探讨了不同时间尺度对2015年温度异常的贡献以及其温度最暖的形成原因。结果表明,年代际及其以上的时间尺度和长期增暖趋势对2015年年平均SATA贡献为0.64°C,远远大于与ENSO信号相关的年际时间尺度的贡献(为0.1°C),说明长时间尺度和全球长期变暖趋势对2015年温度异常的形成有重要贡献。     

Quantitative reconstruction of the last interglacial vegetation and climate based on the pollen record from Lake Baikal, Russia

Changes in mean temperature of the coldest (T _c) and warmest month (T _w), annual precipitation (P _ann) and moisture index (α) were reconstructed from a continuous pollen record from Lake Baikal, Russia. The pollen sequence CON01-603-2 (53°57′N, 108°54′E) was recovered from a 386 m water depth in the Continent Ridge and dated to ca. 130–114.8 ky BP. This time interval covers the complete last interglacial (LI), corresponding to MIS 5e. Results of pollen analysis and pollen-based quantitative biome reconstruction show pronounced changes in the regional vegetation throughout the record. Shrubby tundra covered the area at the beginning of MIS 5e (ca. 130–128 ky), consistent with the end of the Middle Pleistocene glaciation. The late glacial climate was characterised by low winter and summer temperatures (T _c ~ −38 to −35°C and T _w~11–13°C) and low annual precipitation (P _ann~300 mm). However, the wide spread of tundra vegetation suggests rather moist environments associated with low temperatures and evaporation (reconstructed α~1). Tundra was replaced by boreal conifer forest (taiga) by ca. 128 ky BP, suggesting a transition to the interglacial. Taiga-dominant phase lasted until ca. 117.4 ky BP, e.g. about 10 ky. The most favourable climate conditions occurred during the first half of the LI. P _ann reached 500 mm soon after 128 ky BP. However, temperature changed more gradually. Maximum values of T _c ~ −20°C and T _w~16–17°C are reconstructed from about 126 ky BP. Conditions became gradually colder after ca. 121 ky BP. T _c dropped to ~ −27°C and T _w to ~15°C by 119.5 ky BP. The reconstructed increase in continentality was accompanied by a decrease in P _ann to ~400–420 mm. However, the climate was still humid enough (α~0.9) to support growth of boreal evergreen conifers. A sharp turn towards a dry climate is reconstructed after ca. 118 ky BP, causing retreat of forest and spread of cool grass-shrub communities. Cool steppe dominated the vegetation in the area between ca. 117.5 ky and 114.8 ky BP, suggesting the end of the interglacial and transition to the last glacial (MIS 5d). Shift to the new glaciation was characterised by cool and very dry conditions with T _c ~ −28 to −30°C, T _w~14–15°C, P _ann~250 mm and α~0.5.     

Changes in European precipitation seasonality and in drought frequencies revealed by a four-century-long tree-ring isotopic record from Brittany, western France

A new paleoclimatic reconstruction for western France is obtained from tree-ring cellulose stable isotopes. Living trees from Rennes Forest and beams from two ancient buildings in Rennes city have been combined to cover the past four centuries with a gap from 1730 to 1750. The cellulose ¹³C reflects the progressive changes in atmospheric CO₂ isotopic composition. The combined ¹³C and ¹⁸O measurements are used to propose a reconstruction of interannual fluctuations in local summer temperature and water stress. At the decadal time scale, the reconstructed water stress profile exhibits a significant similarity with the historical wine harvest dates, an indicator of warm and dry growth seasons, as well as with the summer central England and central Alps instrumental temperature records and climate model results. Combined with instrumental precipitation records from Paris, these reconstructions suggest a dramatic and widespread change in the seasonality of the precipitation at the beginning of the nineteenth century, with drier winters and wetter summers, which may have contributed to the Alpine glacier decline at the end of the Little Ice Age. The tree-ring isotope records also show a relationship with large-scale North Atlantic circulation changes and the interannual variability is modified between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries (7–8 year periodicities) and the seventeenth century (11–14 year periodicities). By classifying 20-year-long subsets of the reconstructed climatic parameters, we estimate that a decadal mean summer warming of 0.8±0.1°C induced extreme dry years to be 2.2±0.7 times more frequent.     

Rates of change in the European palynological record of the last 13 000 years and their climatic interpretation

Rates of change of pollen spectra throughout Europe during the last 13 000 years have been calculated. The overall mean rate of change curve shows peaks corresponding to known times of rapid palaeoenvironmental change between 13 000 and 12000y BP, and between 10 000 and 9000 y BP. These peaks are strongest in the north and west of Europe. As in eastern North America (Jacobson et al. 1987), highest rates of change are recorded during the last millennium. At this time the changes of greatest magnitude are in areas of Europe with winter climate conditions strongly influenced by the North Atlantic. It is hypothesized that the overall pattern of Holocene climate change in Europe, and especially the changes of the last millennium, result from changes in the North Atlantic that have most strongly influenced winter conditions in western Europe.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program     

A quasi-nine year oscillation of the water level in Lake Copais (Greece) cited by Theophrastus (4th Century B.C.) and Pliny (1st Century A.D.)

From the analysis of the modern rainfall data in the area of Lake Copais in Beotia of eastern Greece and on the basis of the observations of the water level quoted by Theophrastus (4th century B.C.) from earlier days than his own, as well as by Pliny (1st Century A.D.), it seems that a quasi-nine year oscillation becomes prevalent from time to time in the rainfall of the general area of this lake though we do not know the physical cause of the phenomenon.     

Past Antarctic Peninsula climate (1850–1980) deduced from an ice core isotope record

A detailed climatic study of the Antarctic Peninsula from 1850 to 1980 has been carried out through the analysis of deuterium content in the snow layers of Dalinger Dome (James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula). It is based on the high correlation found between mean deuterium contents at this site and temperature data from stations within this region going back as far as April 1903 for the Argentine Orcadas station.The strong correlation between isotopes and temperatures first reveals a 1956 isotope reference for the region considered. Secondly, the isotope-temperature gradient is estimated at 4.5%. °C^–1 for deuterium.After checking that the major temperature anomalies on the Antarctic Peninsula recorded since 1904 (according to available data) correspond to annual mean stable isotope peaks at Dalinger Dome, the amplitude of four prior anomalies are estimated in °C. Finally, a cooling of about 2 °C since 1850 is suggested for the region.     

Winter cyclone frequencies in thirteen models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP1)

Various aspects of the simulated behaviour of cyclones in thirteen models participating in the AMIP1 exercise are presented. In the simulation of the winter climatological mean sea level pressure field for the Northern Hemisphere, the models produce reasonable simulations of the "semi-permanent" features of the climatology. The greatest departures from the observed climatology occur near the exit regions of the oceanic storm tracks; i.e., over northwestern North America, over and to the west of the British Isles and in the Mediterranean. The departures in the three geographical areas are very systematic in that at least eleven of the models exhibit similar departures from observations. In the Southern Hemisphere the intensity of the circumpolar trough is generally well simulated but positioned slightly too far north. Most models exhibit errors south of Africa, New Zealand, and South America. The simulations of the cyclone events show that the models are reasonably successful in reproducing the large-scale aspects of observed cyclone events but deficiencies in the details of the simulations are apparent. The paucity of simulated events to the south of the Alps and to the east of the Rockies suggests that the models have difficulty simulating lee cyclogenesis. Over much of North America, the models have difficulty simulating the correct level of synoptic activity as demonstrated by the low numbers of both cyclone events and anticyclone events. The models have difficulty simulating the distribution of cyclone events as a function of central pressure. The most common problem is that the models exhibit an ever increasing deficit of events with decreasing central pressure. This problem is more apparent in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere and does not appear to be resolution dependent. There is an apparent ENSO signal in the observed Northern Hemisphere interannual variability of intense winter cyclone events. With the exception of ECMWF, the models fail to reproduce this phenomenon. There is some evidence that the models do indeed respond to the interannual variability in the SSTs, but the response tends to be negatively correlated with that of the real atmosphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, there does not appear to be ENSO-induced interannual variability in the observed numbers of cyclone events. Consequently, it could be argued that the models have been reasonably successful in the Southern Hemisphere since they, like the observations, do not exhibit any ENSO-induced interannual variability.     

Glacial to Holocene implications of the new 27000-year dust record from the EPICA Dome C (East Antarctica) ice core

Insoluble dust concentrations and volume-size distributions have been measured for the new 581 m deep Dome C-EPICA ice core (Antarctica). Over the 27000 years spanned by the record, microparticle measurements from 169 levels, to date, confirm evidence of the drastic decrease in bulk concentration from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Holocene (interglacial) by a factor of more than 50 in absolute value and of about 26 in flux. Unique new features revealed by the EPICA profile include a higher dust concentration during the Antarctic Cold Reversal phase (ACR) by a factor of 2 with respect to the Holocene average. This event is followed by a well-marked minimum that appears to be concomitant with the methane peak that marks the end of the Younger Dryas in the Northern Hemisphere. Particle volume-size distributions show a mode close to 2 7m in diameter, with a slight increase from the LGM to the Holocene; the LGM/Holocene concentration ratio appears to be dependent on particle size and for diameters from 2 to 5 7m it changes from 50 to 6. Glacial samples are characterised by well-sorted particles and very uniform distributions, while the interglacial samples display a high degree of variability and dispersion. This suggests that different modes of transport prevailed during the two climatic periods with easier penetration of air masses into Antarctica in the Holocene than during Glacial times. Assuming that southern South America remained the main dust source for East Antarctica over the time period studied, the higher dust content recorded during the ACR which preceded the Younger Dryas period, represents evidence of a change in South America environmental conditions at this time. A wet period and likely mild climate in South America is suggested at circa 11.5-11.7 kyr BP corresponding to the end of the Younger Dryas. The Holocene part of the profile also shows a slight general decrease in concentration, but with increasingly large particles that may reflect gradual changes at the source.     

Climatic conditions in the Alps in the years about the year of Hannibal's crossing (218 BC)

Hannibal and his force (troops, pack animals and elephants) crossed the Alps from France to Italy in the autumn of 218 BC. An examination of treering density and glacier data for the Alps indicates that the year of crossing fell into a period when temperature conditions were much the same and, perhaps, slightly milder than those of the current century since about 1920 - a perid of almost worldwide warming. Absolutely dated tree-ring data for southern Central Europe corroborate that the growing periods of 218 BC and neighboring years were mild.As to the autumn month when the crossing was accomplished, temperature conditions favor the month of September. In the area of the passes, one of which was selected by Hannibal for the traversal at the approximate altitudes of 2000–2500 m MSL, the temperatures are, in the mean below freezing from about mid-October. The ancient historians (Polybius, Livy and others) do not mention frosbite casualties. Below-freezing temperatures would have seriously affected troops coming from North Africa and southern Spain. Presumably, temperatures were above freezing during the ascent phase and the rest of two days on the pass.By the 3rd century BC the Alpine glaciers were in a backward position compared with their position in 900-350 BC. This fact and the mildness of the climate, inferred from tree-ring analyses, suggest that ice conditions were not severe in the Alps in 218 BC.The author has been visiting with the Department of Meteorology, University of Copenhagen, since 1986.     

Paleoclimatic variability at frequencies ranging from 1 cycle per 10 000 years to 1 cycle per 1000 years: Evidence for nonlinear behaviour of the climate system

The paleoclimatic variability at frequencies ranging from 10^–4 cycle per year (cpy) to 10^–3 cpy is investigated using a set of three deep-sea cores from the Indian Ocean. Three frequency bands of high paleoclimatic variability are first defined using upper and lower limits of the significant spectral power concentrations: the bands are centered around the spectral maxima located at 10.3, 4.7, and 2.5 kyr. The localisation of spectral lines is then refined by high-resolution spectral analysis.Some of the resulting lines have frequencies which are close to those previously detected in other paleoclimatic records, including the precessional peak at 19 kyr. Additional lines are also in good correspondence with the response of a nonlinear climatic oscillator forced by insolation variations, including peaks at 13 kyr, 10.4 kyr and 9.4 kyr. This correspondence suggests orbital forcing. Moreover for the Indian Ocean which is influenced by the monsoon circulation, it is plausible that the precessional contribution of the forcing interact strongly with the precipitation-temperature feedback used in the model, thus emphasizing the nonlinearity of the response.     

The International polar year (IPY) circumpolar flaw lead (CFL) system study: Overview and the physical system

Abstract

The Circumpolar Flaw Lead (CFL) system study is a Canadian‐led International Polar Year (IPY) initiative with over 350 participants from 27 countries. The study is multidisciplinary in nature, integrating physical sciences, biological sciences and Inuvialuit traditional knowledge. The CFL study is designed to investigate the importance of changing climate processes in the flaw lead system of the northern hemisphere on the physical, biogeochemical and biological components of the Arctic marine system. The circumpolar flaw lead is a perennial characteristic of the Arctic throughout the winter season and forms when the mobile multi‐year (MY) pack ice moves away from coastal fast ice, creating recurrent and interconnected polynyas in the Norwegian, Icelandic, North American and Siberian sectors of the Arctic. The CFL study was 293 days in duration and involved the overwintering of the Canadian research icebreaker CCGS Amundsen in the Cape Bathurst flaw lead throughout the annual sea‐ice cycle of 2007–2008.

In this paper we provide an introduction to the CFL project and then use preliminary data from the field season to describe the physical flaw lead system, as observed during the CFL overwintering project. Preliminary data show that ocean circulation is affected by eddy propagation into Amundsen Gulf (AG). Upwelling features arising along the ice edge and along abrupt topography are also detected and identified as important processes that bring nutrient rich waters up to the euphotic zone. Analysis of sea‐ice relative vorticity and sea‐ice area by ice type in the AG during the CFL study illustrates increased variability in ice vorticity in late autumn 2007 and an increase in new and young ice areas in the AG during winter. Analysis of atmospheric data show that a strong northeast–southwest pressure gradient present over the AG in autumn may be a synoptic‐scale atmospheric response to sensible and latent heat fluxes arising from areas of open water persisting into late November 2007. The median atmospheric boundary layer temperature profile over the Cape Bathurst flaw lead during the winter season was stable but much less so when compared to Russian ice island stations.     

Long-term precipitation variability in the Ionian Islands, Greece (Central Mediterranean): climatic signal analysis and future projections

The present study examines the variability of the precipitation regime across the Ionian Islands complex, Greece (Central Mediterranean), for a period spanning more than one century. Significant negative long-term linear trends in the annual precipitation totals are observed, more pronounced in the southern parts of the studied area, while a climatic discontinuity possibly occurred during the 1970s, manifested first in the southern Ionian. Statistically significant nonlinear trends and subdecadal intermittent oscillations were detected using Monte Carlo singular spectral analysis. The correlation of the winter precipitation variability at Ionian complex with the North Atlantic Oscillation anomalies was also investigated and extended in the frequency domain. Finally, future projections were performed using an ensemble of Regional Climatic Models. Model simulations suggested a decrease of the order of ～20% or more in the mean annual precipitation of the area by the end of the century.     

Calibration of the climatic signal in a new pollen sequence from La Grande Pile

A new core, GPXX, from La Grande Pile (Vosges, France) has enabled a more precise evaluation of pollen data concerning the last climatic cycle at this site and has enabled reconstruction of the monthly temperature and precipitation. This paper shows that the various components of the reconstructed climatic signal are clearly separated and that they are coherent with the vegetation dynamics. The Eemian interglacial was influenced first by an oceanic climate and second by a more continental one. The two interstadials, St-Germain I and II, were mainly continental. These three temperate periods ended with a cool and humid transition period dominated by boreal forests, which may have been favourable to ice accretion. The Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations from 55 to 25 Kyr BP are not significantly recorded in La Grande Pile.Contribution to Clima Locarno — Past and Present Climate Dynamics; Conference September 1990, Swiss Academy of Sciences — National Climate Program     

Indications of change of climate from the analysis of air temperature time series in Athens,Greece

Air temperature data of Athens are analysed to point out the variations caused by natural controls and anthropogenic activities. The study of the temperature records from 1858 to 1982 at Athens, on the southeast coast of Greece, supports the findings of earlier studies which indicate that the period of the 1920's to the 1950's were, climatologically, warmer than the preceding 60 yr and after about 1960. In particular, minimum temperatures show an increase from the 1920's to the 1980's, possibly due to the urbanization of the area. The climatological trends are clearly indicated in the data, when averaged over 30 yr and/or a numerical low-pass filtering technique is used. However, the sizes of the trends in climate are smaller than the interannual variations in the temperature measures. Over periods of several generations these small variations in climate cannot have had any effect on human activity when compared with the large effects caused by the interannual variability in the temperature.     

On the main characteristics of synoptic weather conditions associated with thunderstorm activity during the months of July and August in the city of Thessaloniki (Northern Greece)

Summary The evolution of synoptic scale atmospheric circulation at least two days before the occurrence of thunderstorm or shower activity with high precipitation amounts is examined for the months of July and August for the area surrounding the city of Thessaloniki in Northern Greece. In a period of sixteen years (1985–2000), seventeen cases with precipitation amounts greater than 10 mm were found in these two months. The most important factor for the occurrence of the above activities was the approach of cold air, usually of mP origin, into Northern Greece. The advection of cold air was examined at the 700 hPa level. This cold air was advected toward the southern Balkans either from Northwestern Europe, or more directly from higher latitudes. In a few cases cold air that had initially been advected into the Central Mediterranean region finally moved eastward affecting Northern Greece. From these seventeen cases, the first four with the highest precipitation amounts (all exceeding 20 mm) were analysed in detail with the help of weather maps and radiosonde data available for the station at Micra. For these four cases, apart from the detailed analysis of the cold air advection, an attempt was made to investigate whether in the lowest part of the troposphere, the area of Northern Greece and the interior of the Balkan Peninsula to the north, was dominated by warm and humid air in the twenty four hour period that preceded each thunderstorm outbreak. For this purpose the evolution of the spatial distribution of the equivalent potential temperature (Θ_e) at the 850 hPa level was determined for the two or three preceding days. Finally, the presence of mesoscale disturbances, that could be considered responsible for triggering the ascending motions that are necessary for the initiation of the thunderstorm development, was investigated for each case.     

Seychelles coral record of changes in sea surface temperature bimodality in the western Indian Ocean from the Mid-Holocene to the present

We report fossil coral records from the Seychelles comprising individual time slices of 14–20 sclerochronological years between 2 and 6.2 kyr BP to reconstruct changes in the seasonal cycle of western Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) compared to the present (1990–2003). These reconstructions allowed us to link changes in the SST bimodality to orbital changes, which were causing a reorganization of the seasonal insolation pattern. Our results reveal the lowest seasonal SST range in the Mid-Holocene (6.2–5.2 kyr BP) and around 2 kyr BP, while the highest range is observed around 4.6 kyr BP and between 1990 and 2003. The season of maximum temperature shifts from austral spring (September to November) to austral autumn (March to May), following changes in seasonal insolation over the past 6 kyr. However, the changes in SST bimodality do not linearly follow the insolation seasonality. For example, the 5.2 and 6.2 kyr BP corals show only subtle SST differences in austral spring and autumn. We use paleoclimate simulations of a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model to compare with proxy data for the Mid-Holocene around 6 kyr BP. The model results show that in the Mid-Holocene the austral winter and spring seasons in the western Indian Ocean were warmer while austral summer was cooler. This is qualitatively consistent with the coral data from 6.2 to 5.2 kyr BP, which shows a similar reduction in the seasonal amplitude compared to the present day. However, the pattern of the seasonal SST cycle in the model appears to follow the changes in insolation more directly than indicated by the corals. Our results highlight the importance of ocean–atmosphere interactions for Indian Ocean SST seasonality throughout the Holocene. In order to understand Holocene climate variability in the countries surrounding the Indian Ocean, we need a much more comprehensive analysis of seasonally resolved archives from the tropical Indian Ocean. Insolation data alone only provides an incomplete picture.     

A correction of the recent air-temperature record at the historical meteorological station of the National Observatory of Athens (NOA) due to instrument change

Two discontinuities were detected in the air-temperature time series at the meteorological station of the National Observatory of Athens. The first discontinuity reflects the instrumental change, which took place in June 1995 and the second discontinuity (and most pronounced) the application of a correction factor to the temperature values (in January 1997), after a calibration of the new thermometers. As a result, a cooling bias was observed after June 1995 and a warming bias after January 1997. The magnitude of bias exhibited a seasonal variability being more pronounced and reaching up to 0.67°C during the warm period of the year. The common period of operation of the ‘old’ and ‘new’ instrumentation was used for the estimation of monthly correction factors and the removal of the bias. The application of the new correction factors, restore the continuity in the air temperature record after June 1995.     

A study of aerosol particle sizes in the atmosphere of Athens,Greece, retrieved from solar spectral measurements

This work aims at determining the aerosol particle radii in the atmosphere of Athens. Such a work is carried out in Athens for the first time. For this purpose, solar spectral direct-beam irradiance measurements were used in the spectral range 310–575 nm. To estimate the particle radius from aerosol optical depth retrieval, a minimization technique was employed based on the golden-section search of the difference between experimental and theoretical values of the aerosol optical depth. The necessary Mie computations were performed based on the algorithm LVEC.In this study, the mean particle radius of a given distribution was calculated every 30 min during cloudless days in the period November 1996 to September 1997. The largest particles were observed in the summer and the smallest during winter. The result was verified by the increased values of the aerosol optical depth and the turbidity factors calculated in the summer. The differences in the diurnal variation from season to season are attributed to the prevailing wind regime, pollutant emission and sink rates in the atmosphere of Athens.