Predicting geomagnetic storms from solar-wind data using time-delay neural networks

We have used time-delay feed-forward neural networks to compute the geomagnetic-activity index D_st one hour ahead from a temporal sequence of solar-wind data. The input data include solar-wind density n, velocity V and the southward component B_z of the interplanetary magnetic field. D_st is not included in the input data. The networks implement an explicit functional relationship between the solar wind and the geomagnetic disturbance, including both direct and time-delayed non-linear relations. In this study we especially consider the influence of varying the temporal size of the input-data sequence. The networks are trained on data covering 6600 h, and tested on data covering 2100 h. It is found that the initial and main phases of geomagnetic storms are well predicted, almost independent of the length of the input-data sequence. However, to predict the recovery phase, we have to use up to 20 h of solar-wind input data. The recovery phase is mainly governed by the ring-current loss processes, and is very much dependent on the ring-current history, and thus also the solar-wind history. With due consideration of the time history when optimizing the networks, we can reproduce 84% of the D_st variance.     

Solar origin of geomagnetic storms and prediction of storms with the use of neural networks

This review deals with how the changes of the large-scale solar magnetic fields are related to the occurrence of solar phenomena, which are associated with geomagnetic storms. The review also describes how artificial neural networks have been used to forecast geomagnetic storms either from daily solar input data or from hourly solar wind data. With solar data as input predictions 1–3 days or a month in advance are possible, while using solar wind data as input predictions about an hour in advance are possible. The predictions one hour ahead of the geomagnetic storm indexD _st from only solar wind input data have reached such high accuracy, that they are of practical use in combination with real-time solar wind observations at L1. However, the predictions days and a month ahead need to be much improved in order to be of real practical use.     

磁暴期离子上行与太阳风及地磁活动水平的统计关系

利用FAST卫星ESA仪器第23太阳活动周上升相(1997-1998年)的观测数据,选取20个磁暴期间能量为4~300 eV的离子上行事件,研究不同磁暴相位电离层上行离子的能通量与太阳风、地磁活动以及电子沉降的统计关系.结果表明：(1)在磁暴初相、主相和恢复相离子上行平均能通量为6.08×10⁷eV/(cm²·s·sr·eV)、5.75×10⁷eV/(cm²·s·sr·eV)和3.91×10⁷eV/(cm²·s·sr·eV),初相期间上行离子能通量最大;(2)上行离子能通量与太阳风动压、行星际磁场B_Z分量存在相关关系,相关系数分别为0.47和-0.38;(3)在磁暴初相、主相和恢复相上行离子能通量与Sym-H的相关系数分别为0.74、-0.77和-0.54,与Kp的相关系数分别为0.53、0.75和0.65,整体上离子上行与Sym-H指数的相关性好于Kp指数;(4)在磁暴初相、主相和恢复相上行离子能通量和电子数通量的相关系数分别为0.74、0.52和0.32,表明磁暴期间软电子(< 1 keV)沉降可以显著提高电离层离子温度;F区的等离子体摩擦加热和双极电场是离子上行的重要获能机制.本文构建的上行离子能通量与Sym-H和电子数通量的经验关系显著,可用于磁流体模拟研究.

     

The solar causes of major geomagnetic storms

In this paper we reanalyse the set of ten major geomagnetic storms which occurred between August 1978 and December 1979. We relate them to the characteristics of the solar wind disturbances which caused them and the solar sources of such disturbances as tracked by means of interplanetary scintillation. It seems to us that the shock causing the sudden commencement and the plasma behind it with an important long-lasting B_z south component (B_z     

The solar causes of the occurrence of selected geomagnetic storms and geomagnetic quiet

Резюме Приводится общее толкование возникновения геомагнитного покоя и геомагнитнЫх бурь на основании новЫх гипотез, разработаннЫх в Геофизическом институте ЧСАН. Приводятся некоторые случаи геомагнитного покоя. Что касается примеров геомагнитнЫх бурь, то здесь имеются в виду прежде всего такие бури, которЫе в литературе обозначаются как “проблема” бурь, далее бури для которЫх существует несколько иногда даже противоречивых толкований По рассматриваемому здесь способу можно бЫло бЫ истолковать любую геомагнитную бурю, равно как и небольшое возмущение. Для этого необходимоо располагать точным даннЫми относительно солнечной ситуации на ЦМ.

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Address: Boční II, Praha 4-Spořilov.     

Dependence of geomagnetic activity during magnetic storms on the solar wind parameters for different types of streams

The dependence of the maximal values of the |Dst| and AE geomagnetic indices observed during magnetic storms on the value of the interplanetary electric field (E _y ) was studied based on the catalog of the large-scale solar wind types created using the OMNI database for 1976–2000 [Yermolaev et al., 2009]. An analysis was performed for eight categories of magnetic storms caused by different types of solar wind streams: corotating interaction regions (CIR, 86 storms); magnetic clouds (MC, 43); Sheath before MCs (Sh_MC, 8); Ejecta (95); Sheath (Sh_E, 56); all ICME events (MC + Ejecta, 138); all compression regions Sheaths before MCs and Ejecta (Sh_MC + Sh_E, 64); and an indeterminate type of storm (IND, 75). It was shown that the |Dst| index value increases with increasing electric field E _y for all eight types of streams. When electric fields are strong (E _y > 11 mV m⁻¹), the |Dst| index value becomes saturated within magnetic clouds MCs and possibly within all ICMEs (MC + Ejecta). The AE index value during magnetic storms is independent of the electric field value E _y for almost all streams except magnetic clouds MCs and possibly the compressed (Sheath) region before them (Sh_MC). The AE index linearly increases within MC at small values of the electric field (E _y < 11 mV m⁻¹) and decrease when these fields are strong (E _y > 11 mV m⁻¹). Since the dynamic pressure (Pd) and IMF fluctuations (σB) correlate with the E _y value in all solar wind types, both geomagnetic indices (|Dst| and AE) do not show an additional dependence on Pd and IMF δB. The nonlinear relationship between the intensities of the |Dst| and AE indices and the electric field E _y component, observed within MCs and possibly all ICMEs during strong electric fields E _y , agrees with modeling the magnetospheric-ionospheric current system of zone 1 under the conditions of the polar cap potential saturation.     

The intensity of the main phase of geomagnetic storms in relation to the parameters of the solar wind

Summary On the basis of investigating 10 storms (1965–1967) good correlation was found between the density of the solar wind energy (₂=1/2mNv²) and the intensity of the main phase of the geomagnetic storms, expressed in terms of the maximum decrease of the horizontal intensity (B=H/cos). The relation between ₂, or Nv², and B could then be used to determine the quantities and ₀ ( is the factor expressing the increase in energy density in the magnetosphere, ₀ is the energy density of the particles in a quiet magnetosphere). A comparison with the directly observed distribution of the energy density of the particles in the magnetosphere indicates that the computed value of ₀ seems to be realistic. The magnitude of the factor will have to be checked again.     

基于神经网络的地磁观测数据重构研究

在距离数据缺失台站一定范围内选取参考台作为输入,构建非线性BP神经网络并进行地磁观测数据重构研究.数据仿真结果显示,重构数据和原始记录数据吻合程度较高,重构残差较小,磁静日重构平均残差仅为0.11 nT,磁扰日平均重构残差为0.23 nT.重点对磁场活动最剧烈时段内的数据进行了短时重构,平均残差由0.4 nT降低到0.2 nT,重构效果得到较大改进.计算了原始数据与重构数据的功率谱密度,除部分高频信号外,二者变化特征基本相同,相关性高达1.0.从时域和频域验证了BP神经网络在地磁相对记录数据重构上的有效性,并将其运用于实际缺失数据重构,取得较好效果.

     

A note on the statistics of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle

This note points out a problem with the way in which extreme value distributions have been fit to the intensities of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle. An alternative method is described. This method is applied to observations of the three largest geomagnetic storms in solar cycles 11–22.     

等离子体片离子与太阳风及地磁条件的关联研究

本文根据搭载于Cluster卫星的CIS/CODIF和RAPID仪器的观测数据,统计研究了等离子体片中的H+、O+离子在磁暴期间的时间变化特性,及其对太阳风条件的响应.观测结果表明：(1) 磁暴开始前,O+离子（0~40 keV）数密度保持在较低水平.随着磁暴的发展,O+数密度缓慢上升,其峰值出现在Dst极小值附近;H+离子(0~40 keV)数密度在磁暴开始之前的较短时间迅速增加并达到峰值,在磁暴开始之后迅速降低,并在整个主相和恢复相期间保持在相对较低水平.更高能量的离子则在磁暴开始后迅速增多,并在低能O+离子达到峰值之前达到峰值.因此我们推测磁暴初期从等离子体片注入环电流的主要是H+离子,主相后期O+离子可能扮演更为重要的角色.(2)在地磁活动时期,太阳风密度和动压强与等离子体片中的H+、O+数密度存在一定相关性.等离子体片中的H+离子对北向IMF Bz较为敏感,而IMF Bz南向条件下更有利于太阳风参数对等离子体片中O+数密度的影响.在地磁活动平静期,太阳风条件对等离子体片中的离子没有明显影响.     

Response of the geomagnetic activity to solar wind turbulence during solar cycle 23

The solar wind–magnetosphere coupled system is characterized by dynamical processes. Recent works have shown that nonlinear couplings and turbulence might play a key role in the study of solar wind–magnetosphere interaction processes.Within this framework, this study presents a statistical analysis aimed to investigate the relationship between solar wind MHD turbulence and geomagnetic activity at high and low latitudes as measured by the AE and SYM-H indices, respectively. This analysis has been performed for different phases of solar cycle 23. The state of turbulence was characterized by means of 2-D histograms of the normalized cross-helicity and the normalized residual energy. The geomagnetic response was then studied in relation to those histograms.The results found clearly show that, from a statistical point of view, solar cycle 23 is somewhat peculiar. Indeed, good Alfvénic correlations are found unexpectedly even during solar activity maximum. This fact has implications on the geomagnetic response as well since a statistical relationship is found between Alfvénic fluctuations and auroral activity. Conversely, solar wind turbulence does not seem to play a relevant role in the geomagnetic response at low latitudes.     

Cosmic rays during great geomagnetic storms in cycle 23 of solar activity

Variations in the cosmic ray intensity (specifically, Forbush effects) and in the geomagnetic cutoff rigidity planetary system during powerful geomagnetic disturbances in cycle 23 were studied based on worldwide station network data by the global spectrographic survey method. The cosmic ray variation spectra during these periods and the spectral indices of these variations when the spectrum was approximated by the power function of the particle rigidity varying from 10 to 50 GV during different Forbush effect development phases are presented. It was indicated that the spectral indices of cosmic ray variations during spectrum approximation by the power function of the particle rigidity are larger during the maximal modulation phase than during the cosmic ray intensity decline and recovery phases. The fact that the amplitude of the second harmonic of the cosmic ray pitch angle anisotropy did not increase on November 20, 2003, confirms that the Earth fell into a Sun-independent spheromark magnetic cloud. The increased amplitudes of the second harmonic of the cosmic ray pitch angle anisotropy during other Forbush effects in July 2000, March–April 2001, October 2003, and November 2004 indicate that the Earth was in the coronal mass ejection region, in which the interplanetary magnetic field structure was loop-like during these periods.     

Long-term variations of solar magnetic fields derived from geomagnetic data

There are limited homogeneous instrumental observations of the sunspot magnetic fields, but the Earth is a sort of a probe reacting to interplanetary disturbances which are manifestation of the solar magnetic fields. We find correlations between some parameters of geomagnetic activity (the geomagnetic activity “floor”—the minimum value under which the geomagnetic activity cannot fall in a sunspot cycle, and the rate of increase of the geomagnetic activity with increasing sunspot number), and sunspot magnetic fields (the sunspot magnetic field in the cycle minimum, and the rate of increase of the sunspot magnetic field from cycle minimum to cycle maximum). Based on these correlations we are able to reconstruct the sunspot magnetic fields in sunspot minima and maxima since sunspot cycle 9 (mid 19th century).     

Statistics of the largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle (1844–1993)

A previous application of extreme-value statistics to the first, second and third largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle for nine solar cycles is extended to fourteen solar cycles (1844–1993). The intensity of a geomagnetic storm is measured by the magnitude of the daily aa index, rather than the half-daily aa index used previously. Values of the conventional aa index (1868– 1993), supplemented by the Helsinki Ak index (1844–1880), provide an almost continuous, and largely homogeneous, daily measure of geomagnetic activity over an interval of 150 years. As in the earlier investigation, analytic expressions giving the probabilities of the three greatest storms (extreme values) per solar cycle, as continuous functions of storm magnitude (ad), are obtained by least-squares fitting of the observations to the appropriate theoretical extreme-value probability functions. These expressions are used to obtain the statistical characteristics of the extreme values; namely, the mode, median, mean, standard deviation and relative dispersion. Since the Ak index may not provide an entirely homogeneous extension of the aa index, the statistical analysis is performed separately for twelve solar cycles (1868–1993), as well as nine solar cycles (1868–1967). The results are utilized to determine the expected ranges of the extreme values as a function of the number of solar cycles. For fourteen solar cycles, the expected ranges of the daily aa index for the first, second and third largest geomagnetic storms per solar cycle decrease monotonically in magnitude, contrary to the situation for the half-daily aa index over nine solar cycles. The observed range of the first extreme daily aa index for fourteen solar cycles is 159–352 nT and for twelve solar cycles is 215–352 nT. In a group of 100 solar cycles the expected ranges are expanded to 137–539 and 177–511 nT, which represent increases of 108% and 144% in the respective ranges. Thus there is at least a 99% probability that the daily aa index willAlso Visiting Reader in Physics, University of Sussex, Palmer, Brighton, BN1 9QH, UK     

Dependence of geomagnetic activity during magnetic storms on the solar wind parameters for different types of streams: 3. Development of storm

This paper is a continuation of (Nikolaeva et al., 2011, 2012) and it analyzes the development of the main phase of 190 magnetic storms with Dst ≤ −50 nT depending on the type of source in the solar wind (magnetic clouds, MC; corotating interaction regions, CIR; Ejecta; Sheath before them, Sh_E; Sheath before MC, Sh_MC; all Sheath regions before ICME, Sh_E + Sh_MC; all ICME, MC + Ejecta; and an indeterminate type of solar wind stream, IND).     

Response of the midlatitude ionosphere to extreme geomagnetic storms of the 23rd solar cycle

The ionospheric response in the Irkutsk region (52.3° N, 104.3° E) to the extreme geomagnetic storms of solar cycle 23 was studied based on the data of the Irkutsk incoherent scatter radar (ISR) and DPS-4 vertical sounding digital ionosonde. The deviations of parameters from the undisturbed level, i.e., from the monthly medians or the values obtained on a quiet day, were considered as an ionospheric response. Values of the electron concentration maximum (N _mF2) and electron temperature (T _e) at a height of 350 km were chosen as parameters. The ionospheric response is interpreted in the scope of the concept of a thermospheric storm and penetration of the magnetospheric electric field.     

Very quiet intervals of geomagnetic activity and the solar wind structure

Extended periods of very low geomagnetic activity as described by very quiet intervals (VQI's) occur only at those times when the solar wind velocityV has a generally decreasing trend, i.e., they mainly occur either after the velocity peak of a high speed solar stream has passed the Earth, or at times when the Earth is immersed in a low speed solar plasma provided that the daily mean value ofdV/dt is negative. The VQI's most frequently start whendV/dt<0 anddB _Z/dt>0 (B _Z is the geocentric solar magnetrospheric-GSMZ-component of the IMF) and end most likely whendV/dt>0 anddB _Z/dt<0. The temporal trends of the solar wind (SW) velocity affect the variation of thea _p index only when the level of geomagnetic activity is generally low.It is suggested that a gradual expansion or contraction of the magnetosphere, associated with a slow variation of the SW pressure, plays a role in the modification of the reconnection-driven magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) fluctuations in the magnetosphere.     

Dependence of geomagnetic activity during magnetic storms on the solar wind parameters for different types of streams: 2. Main phase of storm

The paper analyses the development of the main phase of magnetic storms with Dst ≤ −50 nT, the interplanetary source of which consists of eight types of solar wind streams: magnetic clouds (MC, 17 storms); corotating interaction regions (CIR, 49 storms); Ejecta (50 storms); compressed region (Sheath) before Ejecta Sh_E (34 storms); the Sheath before a magnetic cloud Sh_MC (6 storms); all Sheath before all ICME, Sh_E + Sh_MC (40 storms); all ICME, MC + Ejecta (67 storms); and an indeterminate type of stream IND (34 storms).     

Low-latitude variations in the geomagnetic field caused by solar wind disturbances

In view of the actual question regarding the effect of a solar-wind pressure jump on disturbances in the Earth’s magnetosphere, events with high velocity and density gradients are of special interest. In this work, we consider the response of the current at the dayside magnetopause to these events and the corresponding strengthening of the geomagnetic field in the low-latitude magnetosphere. A transient process is studied that accompanies reconfiguration of the magnetosphere under the effect of disturbances of solar wind parameters. An analytical equation is received for estimation of an increase in the northern component of low-latitude magnetic field of the magnetosphere in a transient current system (transient ring current) versus initial values of the solar-wind velocity and density and their disturbances.