Searching for the source of short-period comet nuclei: Choosing between different asteroid groups

This study continues our previous works on searching for the main source of the nuclei of Jupiter family comets (JFCs). Angular orbit element distributions are analyzed for comets and asteroids of different groups. The distributions of JFCs by argument of perihelion ω and longitude of perihelion π are studied. The distributions are shown not to have been formed during the evolution of JFCs in their current orbits. Similar distributions N(ω) and N(π) are not observed in bodies that have come into the JFC orbits from external sources. At the same time, the distributions of JFCs by all angular orbit elements are very similar to those of the Trojans. It is concluded that the latter are likely to be the main source of the JFC nuclei.     

A Monte Carlo estimate of the fraction of comets developing into sizeable asteroidal bodies

We present results of Monte Carlo simulations of orbital evolution showing that assuming a steady state there are roughly 50 extinct comets per active one in the Mars-crossing Jupiter family. The large number of extinct comets thus expected compared with the absence of observed apollo or Amor asteroids with aphelion distances greater than 4.2 AU indicates that less than five percent of the extinct comets survive as sizeable asteroidal bodies.Paper presented at the European Workshop on Planetary Sciences, organised by the Laboratorio di Astrofisica Spaziale di Frascati, and held between April 23–27, 1979, at the Accademia Nazionale del Lincei in Rome, Italy.     

Are the cometary outbursts caused by impacts with interplanetary vagabonds probable?

The possibility of impacts and their results in relation to the cometary outbursts between comets and other small bodies in the solar system has been investigated. Taking into consideration certain physical features of cometary nuclei and impacting bodies, the probability of impacts of small bodies moving in the main asteroid belt with hypothetical comets which represent three types: Jupiter family comets, Halley family comets and long period comets has been computed. The probability of impacts between comets and meteoroids at large heliocentric distances has also been estimated. Potential consequences of these events in relation to outbursts of the cometary brightness have been discussed. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Structure and evolution of the Jupiter family

Both physical and dynamical issues are important in order to judge the origin and evolution of the Jupiter family of short-period comets. The steady-state condition for maintaining this structure at its present size by captures from the classical Oort cloud is reviewed on the basis of recent results concerning the absolute number of Jupiter family comets as a function of perihelion distance as well as the coupled physical and dynamical evolutions that evidently occur. Like in most earlier investigations, a clear shortage is found in the classical Oort cloud source. The shortage seems, however, less extreme than sometimes assumed. Monte Carlo simulations are envisaged as a way to shed further light on the fate of Jupiter family comets.     

Periodic variation of Oort Cloud flux and cometary impacts on the Earth and Jupiter

Time variation in impact probability is studied by assuming that the periodic flux of the Oort Cloud comets within 15 au arises from the motion of the Sun with respect to the Galactic mid-plane. The periodic flux clearly shows up in the impact rate of the captured Oort Cloud cometary population, with a phase shift caused by the orbital evolution. Depending on the assumed flux of comets and the size distribution of comets, the impact rate of the Oort Cloud comets of 1 km in diameter or greater is from 5 to 700 impacts Myr⁻¹ on the Earth and from 0.5 to 70 impacts per 1000 yr on Jupiter. The relative fractions of impacts are 0.09, 0.11, 0.26 and 0.54 for long-period comets, Halley type comets, Jupiter family comets and near-Earth objects, respectively. For Jupiter, the corresponding fractions in the first three categories are 0.18, 0.31 and 0.51. If we consider physical fading of comet activity that is compatible with the observations, then the impact rates of active comets are two orders of magnitude smaller than the total impact rates by all kinds of comets and cometary asteroids of size 1 km or greater.     

Meteoroid streams that trace to candidate dormant comets

In an effort to identify space mission targets of interest, the association of known meteoroid streams with Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) was investigated. In addition to updating previous searches to include NEOs discovered up to January 1, 2007, a new dissimilarity criterion based on dynamical arguments was applied to evaluate the likelihood of each candidate association. The new criterion is based on the fact that the few established cases, such as 2003 EH1 and the Quadrantid stream, involve parent bodies that fragmented in the most recent nutation cycle of their secular orbital evolution. In established cases, the statistics speak strongly of an association due to the lack of NEOs in the a, e, i phase space occupied by these showers. The newly proposed associations are much more uncertain, because the odds of chance associations greatly increase as orbital inclination of the showers decreases. Forty-two plausible candidate dormant comets were identified, that deserve further scrutiny. Both comet and stream typically lack sufficient data to prove the association. Most candidate parent bodies pertain to NEOs with an aphelion distance just short of Jupiter's orbit, a perihelion distance near Earth orbit, and an eccentricity in the range 0.5-0.8. Surprisingly many have , which means that most candidate parent bodies are dormant Jupiter family comets that have not yet fully decoupled from Jupiter. Establishing these associations can provide further evidence that (mostly) dormant comets break frequently, making this the dominant mechanism for replenishing the zodiacal cloud.     

Long-term evolution of Oort Cloud comets: capture of comets

We test different possibilities for the origin of short-period comets captured from the Oort Cloud. We use an efficient Monte Carlo simulation method that takes into account non-gravitational forces, Galactic perturbations, observational selection effects, physical evolution and tidal splittings of comets. We confirm previous results and conclude that the Jupiter family comets cannot originate in the spherically distributed Oort Cloud, since there is no physically possible model of how these comets can be captured from the Oort Cloud flux and produce the observed inclination and Tisserand constant distributions. The extended model of the Oort Cloud predicted by the planetesimal theory consisting of a non-randomly distributed inner core and a classical Oort Cloud also cannot explain the observed distributions of Jupiter family comets. The number of comets captured from the outer region of the Solar system are too high compared with the observations if the inclination distribution of Jupiter family comets is matched with the observed distribution. It is very likely that the Halley-type comets are captured mainly from the classical Oort Cloud, since the distributions in inclination and Tisserand value can be fitted to the observed distributions with very high confidence. Also the expected number of comets is in agreement with the observations when physical evolution of the comets is included. However, the solution is not unique, and other more complicated models can also explain the observed properties of Halley-type comets. The existence of Jupiter family comets can be explained only if they are captured from the extended disc of comets with semimajor axes of the comets   a <5000 au  . The original flattened distribution of comets is conserved as the cometary orbits evolve from the outer Solar system era to the observed region.     

Families of periodic planetary-type orbits in the three-body problem and their stability

Several families of the planar general three-body problem for fixed values of the three masses are found, in a rotating frame of reference, where the mass of two of the bodies is small compared to the mass of the third body. These families were obtained by the continuation of a degenerate family of periodic orbits of three bodies where two of the bodies have zero masses and describe circular orbits around a third body with finite mass, in the same direction.The above families represent planetary systems with the body with the large mass representing the Sun and the two small bodies representing two planets or comets. One section of a family is shown to represent the Jupiter family of comets and also a model for the Sun-Jupiter-Saturn system is found.The stability analysis revealed that stability exists for small masses and small eccentricities of the two planets. Planetary systems with relatively large masses and eccentricities are proved to be unstable. In particular, the Jupiter family of comets, for small masses of the two small bodies, and the Sun-Jupiter-Saturn system are proved to be stable. Also, it was shown that resonances are not necessarily associated with instabilities.     

The effect of non-gravitational forces on the median inclination of short-period comets

The numbered Jupiter family comets (orbital periods   P < 20 yr  ) have a median orbital inclination of about     . In this paper, we integrate the orbits of these comets into the future, under the influence of both typical non-gravitational forces and planetary perturbation, using a Bulirsch–Stoer integrator. In the case where non-gravitational forces were not acting, the median inclination of those comets that remained on   P < 20 yr  orbits increased at the rate of  (1.92 ± 0.12) × 10⁻³ deg yr⁻¹  for the first 3600 yr of the integration. During this time the population of the original family decreases, such that the half-life is about 13 200 ± 800 yr. The introduction of non-gravitational forces slows down the rate of increase in inclination to a value of around  (1.23 ± 0.16) × 10⁻³ deg yr⁻¹  . This rate of increase in inclination was found to be only weakly dependent on the non-gravitational parameters used during the integration. After a few thousand years, the rate of change in inclination decreases, and after 20 000 yr the inclinations of those initial Jupiter family members that still have orbits with   P < 20 yr  become constant at about     , independent of whether non-gravitational forces are acting or not. The presently known Jupiter family of comets is losing members at the rate of one in every 67 yr. To maintain the family in equilibrium, Jupiter has to capture comets at a similar rate, and these captured comets have to be of low inclination to compensate for the pumping up of inclinations by gravitational perturbation.     

Long-Period Comets and the Oort Cloud

Long-period (LP) comets, Halley-type (HT) comets, and even some comets of the Jupiter family, probably come from the Oort cloud, a huge reservoir of icy bodies that surrounds the solar system. Therefore, these comets become important probes to learn about the distant Oort cloud population. We review the fundamental dynamical properties of LP comets, and what is our current understanding of the dynamical mechanisms that bring these bodies from the distant Oort cloud region to the inner planetary region. Most new comets have original reciprocal semimajor axes in the range2 × 10^-5 < 1/a_orig < 5 × 10^-5AU^-1. Yet, this cannot be taken to represent the actual space distribution of Oort cloud comets, but only the region in the energy space in which external perturbers have the greatest efficiency in bringing comets to the inner planetary region. The flux of Oort cloud comets in the outer planetary region is found to be at least several tens times greater than the flux in the inner planetary region. The sharp decrease closer to the Sun is due to the powerful gravitational fields of Jupiter and Saturn that prevent most Oort cloud comets from reaching the Earth’s neighborhood (they act as a dynamical barrier). A small fraction of ～10^-2 Oort cloud comets become Halley type (orbital periods P < 200 yr), and some of them can reach short-period orbits with P < 20 yr. We analyze whether we can distinguish the latter, very ‘old” LP comets, from comets of the Jupier family coming from the Edgeworth-Kuiper belt.     

Orbits of short period comets captured from the Oort cloud

Oort cloud comets occasionally obtain orbits which take them through the planetary region. The perturbations by the planets are likely to change the orbit of the comet. We model this process by using a Monte Carlo method and cross sections for orbital changes, i.e. changes in energy, inclination and perihelion distance, in a single planet-comet encounter. The influence of all major planets is considered. We study the distributions of orbital parameters of observable comets, i.e. those which have perihelion distance smaller than a given value. We find that enough comets are captured from the Oort cloud in order to explain the present populations of short period comets. The median value of cos i for the Jupiter family is 0.985 while it is 0.27 for the Halley types. The results may explain the orbital features of short period comets, assuming that the active lifetime of a comet is not much greater than 400 orbital revolutions.     

Orbits of short period comets captured from the Oort cloud

Oort cloud comets occasionally obtain orbits which take them through the planetary region. The perturbations by the planets are likely to change the orbit of the comet. We model this process by using a Monte Carlo method and cross sections for orbital changes, i.e. changes in energy, inclination and perihelion distance, in a single planet-comet encounter. The influence of all major planets is considered. We study the distributions of orbital parameters of observable comets, i.e. those which have perihelion distance smaller than a given value. We find that enough comets are captured from the Oort cloud in order to explain the present populations of short period comets. The median value of cos i for the Jupiter family is 0.985 while it is 0.27 for the Halley types. The results may explain the orbital features of short period comets, assuming that the active lifetime of a comet is not much greater than 400 orbital revolutions.     

Jupiter approaching asteroids and their possibilities for activity

Jupiter‐family comets (JFCs) may often, closely and/or slowly approach Jupiter. A list of their close approaches within 0.21 AU from Jupiter between 1970 and 2030 is presented to determine the typical changes in some of their orbital elements and their relation to any triggered activity. A few JFCs from the list were temporary satellites of Jupiter. There are also several JFCs which originally had asteroidal provisional designations due to their low activity at discovery. But Jupiter is also approached by asteroids. The presented list of their approaches within 0.60 AU from Jupiter between 1960 and 2040, together with their orbital changes can be compared with the list of comets. Some of the orbital changes are large enough to cause an extremely low or short‐lived activity. Usually, quick and dedicated observations by large‐aperture telescopes are missing to confirm or refute it. Currently, the most important cometary candidate among Jupiter approaching asteroids is 2004 FY140. (© 2005 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Viscous relaxation on comets

Three Jupiter family comets have now been observed by spacecraft with the surprising result that these comets lack unambiguous impact craters. Large-scale topography generally appears to be softened on these comets, although sharp topography is preserved at small scales. We find that viscous relaxation of water ice may explain these observations, given reasonable assumptions about ice grain size and temperatures attained in the interiors. We suggest that both the shapes and the cratering records of Jupiter family comets may be substantially modified and no longer reflect cometary formation processes or collisional evolution in the Kuiper Belt.     

Quasi-satellites of Jupiter

Two asteroids 2001 QQ199 and 2004 AE9 and two comets P/LINEAR-Catalina and P/LINEAR are found to be quasi-satellites of Jupiter at present time. The Tisserand parameters of these four bodies lie between 2.3 and 2.5, which means two asteroids might be Jupiter family comets and will show a cometary’s activity in the near future.     

Modelling close encounters with Öpik''s theory

The results obtained by numerical integration of the equations of motion of fictitious comets, in the restricted circular three-dimensional three-body problem, are compared with those obtained with Öpik's theory of close encounters, for an experimental set-up similar to that used by Froeschlé and Rickman (1980, 1981) to model both the infeed of comets from the trans-jovian region into the Jupiter family and their subsequent orbital evolution within the family. The distributions of perturbations in orbital energy E, eccentricity e and inclination i are well reproduced by Öpik's theory, as long as the comparison is made on the outcomes of encounters only up to a certain unperturbed distance b_max; several values of the latter are experimented with and it is found that, surprisingly, Öpik's theory seems to be still working reasonably well for values of b_max in excess of several times the Hill's radius of the planet.     

Orbital evolution of long-period comets I. Trivariate Monte Carlo simulation

The mean orbital evolution of long-period comets for 16 representative initial orbits to short-period comets is calculated by a Monte Carlo method. First, trivariate perturbation distributions of barycentric Kepler energy, total angular momentum, and its z component in single encounters of comets with Jupiter are obtained numerically. Their characteristics are examined in detail and the distributions are found to be simple, symmetric, and easy to handle. Second, utilizing these distributions, we have done trivariate Monte Carlo simulations of the orbital evolution of long-period comets, with special emphasis on high-inclination orbits. About half of the 16 initial orbits are traced up to 5000 returns. For each of these orbits, the mean values of semimajor axis, perihelion distance, and inclination; their standard deviations, survival, and capture rates; as well as time scales of orbital evolution are calculated as functions of return number. Survival rates of the initial orbits with high inclination (～90°) and small perihelion distance (～1–2 AU) have been found to be only two or three times smaller than those of the main-source orbits of short-period comets established quantitatively by Everhart. The time scales of orbitsl evolution of the former, however, are nearly 10 times longer than the latter. There is a general trend that, for smaller perihelion distance, the survival efficiency becomes higher. The results of this paper should be considered a basis for a succeeding paper (Paper II) in which the physical lifetime of comets will be determined, and a comparison with the orbital data will be done.     

Structure and Dynamics of the Centaur Population: Constraints on the Origin of Short-Period Comets

The origin of Jupiter-family comets is linked to the intermediate stage of evolution through the Centaur region. Thus the structure of the Centaur population provides important constraints on sources of short-period comets. We show that our model of the Oort cloud evolution gives results which are consistent with the orbital distribution of observed Centaurs. In particular, it explains the existence of the large population of Centaurs with semimajor axes greater than 60 AU. The main source for these objects is the inner Oort cloud. Both Jupiter-family and Halley-type comets are produced by Centaurs originating from the Oort cloud. The injection rate for Jupiter-family comets coming from the inner Oort cloud is, at least, not less than that for a model based on the observed sample of high-eccentricity trans-Neptunian objects.     

Stochasticity of two comets in resonance with Jupiter

The orbital stochasticity of comets P/Ciffréo (1985 XVI) and P/Maury (1985 VI), at the present time near the 5/3 and 4/3 resonances with Jupiter, is investigated using Lyapunov Characteristic Indicators. First results indicate a strong stochastic behaviour for the two comets, mainly induced by encounters with Jupiter, which looks roughly like the behaviour of the group of comets in 1/1 resonance with Jupiter.     

Temporary satellite capture of comets by Jupiter

This paper studies the dynamical evolution of 97 Jupiter-family comets over an 800-year time period. More than two hundred encounters with Jupiter are investigated, with the observed comets moving during a certain period of time in an elliptic jovicentric orbit. In most cases this is an ordinary temporary satellite capture of a comet in Everhart??s sense, not associated with a transition of the small body into Jupiter??s family of satellites. The phenomenon occurs outside the Hill sphere with comets with a high Tisserand constant relative to Jupiter; the comets?? orbits have a small inclination to the ecliptic plane. An analysis of 236 encounters has allowed the determination within the planar pair two-body problem of a region of orbits in the plane (a, e) whose semimajor axes and eccentricities contribute to the phenomenon under study. Comets with orbits belonging to this region experience a temporary satellite capture during some of their encounters; the jovicentric distance function has several minima; and the encounters are characterized by reversions of the line of apsides and some others features of their combination that are intrinsic to comets in this region. Therefore, this region is called a region of comets with specific features in their encounters with Jupiter. Twenty encounters (out of 236), whereby the comet enters an elliptic jovicentric orbit in the Hill sphere, are identified and investigated. The size and shape of the elliptic heliocentric orbits enabling this transition are determined. It is found that in 11 encounters the motion of small bodies in the Hill sphere has features the most important of which is multiple minima of the jovicentric distance function. The study of these 20 encounters has allowed the introduction of the concept of temporary gravitational capture of a small body into the Hill sphere. An analysis of variations in the Tisserand constant in these (20) encounters of the observable comets shows that their motion is unstable in Hill??s sense.