全球大气再分析资料的研究现状与进展

在过去十多年,利用资料同化技术再分析过去的气象观测资料,重建高时空分辨率的格点历史气候数据集取得了长足发展。再分析资料的问世为人们深入了解大气运动的方式、认识不同时空尺度内气候变化和变率提供了强有力的、甚至不可替代的研究工具。就当前国际上一些主要的全球大气再分析资料研究计划及其产品的概况、再分析资料在大气科学及其相关研究领域中的应用、再分析资料的评估及其在气候变化研究中存在的一些主要质量问题做了回顾与介绍,并就未来大气再分析资料研究计划的一些发展趋势予以展望。     

深度不确定性下的灾害风险稳健决策方法评述

由于未来气候变化和城市化相互耦合作用,极端气候事件频发,尤其是沿海超大城市所面临的复合洪水风险持续上升.基于稳健决策方法,评估未来潜在适应措施的表现性能及经济效益,提出适应风险的实施路径,可有效管理极端灾害事件,降低灾害风险,增强城市韧性.首先分析了国际上处理深度不确定性的稳健决策方法理论基础,其次评述了被广泛应用于灾害风险领域的稳健决策、多 目标稳健决策、动态适应性规划、适应对策路径、动态适应性对策路径及实物期权分析6种稳健决策方法,并进行系统对比分析.最后,提出未来可综合稳健决策和适应对策路径的优点,也可使用多目标稳健决策解决多目标问题、权衡多目标决策.此外,实物期权分析可量化适应措施的决策投资时机.这些稳健决策方法都为解决深度不确定性、降低灾害风险、制定适应气候变化策略提供了方法和工具.     

全球变化与区域可持续发展耦合模型及调控对策

全球气候变化和土地利用/覆盖变化已经导致许多地区水资源短缺、生态系统服务退化和巨灾风险增加等一系列生态环境问题。如何有效地应对气候变化风险,促进全球和区域的可持续发展,是当前全球变化研究中的一个重要论题。国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"全球变化与区域可持续发展耦合模型及调控对策(2014CB954300)"以可持续性科学为主要依据,以有序人类活动理念为指导思想,以实地观测、模型模拟和情景分析为主要手段,揭示气候变化和人类活动的定量关系,评估气候变化条件下人类活动对区域生态系统服务和人类福祉的影响,建立气候变化—有序人类活动—区域可持续发展耦合模型,提出景观及区域尺度上人类适应全球变化的综合策略。该研究项目将有助于发展和完善景观可持续性科学,促进我国半干旱地区主动适应全球气候变化的土地系统设计的理论和实践。     

气候变化对我国水文水资源系统的影响研究

总结气候变化对我国水文水资源系统的影响、研究进展和研究方法、技术,及其优缺点,在分析气候变化对我国水文水资源系统的影响基础上,介绍了相关的水文模拟技术,并提出减少气候变化对水资源不利影响的对策和建议.这些结论对于不同气候条件下更好地利用水资源有一定的借鉴意义.     

全球气候变化下水资源脆弱性及其评估方法

气候变化对水资源的影响主要表现在两个方面:①对水资源供给能力的影响;②对水资源需求性的影响。气候变化下水资源脆弱性评估是水资源系统的综合评估,主要包括水资源供给与需求平衡的评估。我国水资源深受气候影响,表现在地区分布不均、洪涝灾害严重、供需矛盾突出等方面;此外,自气候变化引起关注以来,我国有关水资源脆弱性评估的研究甚少。对水资源脆弱性评估方法进行探讨,旨在为进一步探讨气候变化下我国水资源的脆弱性提供依据。     

气候影响评价中统计降尺度若干问题的探讨

全球气候模式是目前研究未来气候变化的重要工具,然而其较低的空间分辨率使其难以被直接用于区域尺度的气候影响评价中,统计降尺度常常被用于弥补这一不足。对统计降尺度的3种主要方法:转化函数法,天气分型法和天气发生器法的最新研究进展进行了归纳;论述了统计降尺度中的各种不确定性;总结了统计降尺度在中国的发展和应用。统计降尺度与动力降尺度的比较和结合、极端事件的降尺度以及统计降尺度的不确定性将成为未来的主要发展方向。     

气候变化的影响与长期气候目标的建立研究进展

IPCC报告指出,气候变化已经并将继续显著地影响人类赖以生存和发展的资源、生态和环境,并对经济、水资源、海岸带以及生态系统造成重大影响。随着全球气候的进一步增暖,各种不利影响的严重程度可能会加剧。在研究气候变化带来影响的基础上,分析了气候变化的驱动因素,提出减缓气候变化影响应该建立一个长期的气候目标,并建议采取相应对策。     

全球气候变化及其影响

全球气候变化及其对社会与自然系统产生的影响已日益受到全世界各国政府与广大民众的关注。与天气和气候有关的灾害给人类生命财产造成的损失日益增大,社会与生态系统似乎变得日趋脆弱。人们关心刚刚过去的20世纪的天气与气候发生了什么变化,更希望了解未来的21世纪,人类居住的地球会出现什么样的气候情景。根据一些国家和地区的观测记录、研究成果以及科学家们对气候变化的评估与预测展望,对全球气候变化问题进行概括。首先阐明20世纪地区性气候变化的事实;并根据政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)科学技术报告中关于20世纪全球气候变化进行的总结性评估以及对21世纪全球气候变化的预测,作为阐述过去与未来全球气候变化的主要依据。同时,还介绍了一些科学家对IPCC关于全球气候变化的结论所持的不同观点或质疑。还就气候变化对社会与自然系统可能产生的影响略作论述。     

气候变化经济影响研究热点的足迹可视化:整合被引文献和突现词

气候变化经济影响的研究受到各国政府与学者的广泛关注,是国内外的研究热点。以Web of Science核心数据库中检索的14 796篇与气候变化经济影响相关的文献为基础,整合文献共被引网络和突现词共现网络,对气候变化经济影响研究热点的足迹进行可视化分析。研究结果显示,文献数量整体上呈现指数上升趋势。时间上,研究热点在2007年以前,主要集中在气候变化的归因分析(化石燃料、土地利用变化等造成的CO_2排放增多),对自然生态系统(农业产量、粮食安全、北极冰盖、海岸带等)和社会经济系统(人类健康、能源、工业等)的影响及经济影响评估,演变到对未来气候变化情景、CO_2的减排及应对和减缓气候变化等的关注。2007年以后随着IPCC第四次评估报告及斯特恩报告的发布,进一步加强了气候变化影响的成本效益评估、脆弱性及生物能源等方面的研究,热点聚焦气候变化经济学及经济贸易。空间上,研究热点的发文主要来自于美国、加拿大、西欧(英国、法国、德国、意大利、荷兰等)、澳大利亚和中国等国家。     

气候变化与农业

全球气候变化将严重地限制农业生产，并引起广泛的饥荒、，这种预计的灾害情景已经引起斩关注和这样的争论，即是否要大幅度地削减温室气体到大气中的排放量，未来气候变化对２的可能影响现在已经进行了一些详细的研究，虽然可以想象还有很多不确定性，但已进行的所有研究还都没有发现全球的食物供应会受到严重的威胁。采取适应对策在一些国家可以产生节省成本的后果，但采取适应对策所需的新增成本会给发展中国家的发展造成严重的障     

Differential impacts of climate change on communities in the middle hills region of Nepal

There is a growing understanding that the impacts of climate change affect different communities within a country, in a variety of ways—not always uniformly. This article reports on research conducted in the middle hills region of Nepal that explored climate change vulnerability in terms of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity across different well-being groups, genders of the head of household and household location. In the study region, dry land farming has increasingly experienced climate-induced changes to farm productivity and natural resources. The experience of vulnerability to decreased livelihood options and natural resource hazards due to a changing climate varied according to household wealth and well-being status, with very poor and poor households more vulnerable than medium and well-off households. The research indicates that the climate change adaptation would benefit by considering: (i) differential impacts of vulnerability mainly based on well-being status of households; (ii) understanding of the local socio-political context and underlying causes of vulnerability and its application; and (iii) identifying vulnerable populations for the units of vulnerability analysis and adaptation planning.     

Déjà vu or something new? The adaptation concept in the climate change literature

This paper reflects on the resurgence and meaning of the adaptation concept in the current climate change literature. We explore the extent to which the early political economic critique of the adaptation concept has influenced how it is used in this literature. That is, has the current conceptualization been enriched by the political economic critique of the 1970s and 1980s and thus represent something new? Or is the concept used in a way today that echoes previous debates; that is, is this a déjà vu experience? To answer this question, we review the early political economic critique of the natural hazards school’s interpretations of vulnerability and adaptation. We then examine the revival of the adaptation concept in the climate change literature and discuss its main interpretations. For the purposes of this paper, the climate change literature encompasses the four IPCC reports and adaptation-focused articles in four scholarly journals: Global Environmental Change, Climatic Change, Climate and Development, and Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. Our content analysis shows the dominance (70%) of “adjustment adaptation” approaches, which view climate impacts as the main source of vulnerability. A much smaller percentage (3%) of articles focus on the social roots of vulnerability and the necessity for political–economic change to achieve “transformative adaptation.” A larger share (27%) locates risk in both society and the biophysical hazard. It promotes “reformist adaptation,” typically through “development,” to reduce vulnerability within the prevailing system. We conclude with a discussion of continuity and change in the conceptualization of adaptation, and point to new research directions.     

Climate change transformation: A definition and typology to guide decision making in urban environments

Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5^OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5^OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments.     

Climate change transformation: A definition and typology to guide decision making in urban environments

Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5^OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5^OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments.     

Climate change transformation: A definition and typology to guide decision making in urban environments

Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5^OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5^OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments.     

Climate change transformation: A definition and typology to guide decision making in urban environments

Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5^OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5^OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments.     

Climate change transformation: A definition and typology to guide decision making in urban environments

Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5^OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5^OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments.     

Climate change transformation: A definition and typology to guide decision making in urban environments

Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5^OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5^OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments.     

Climate change transformation: A definition and typology to guide decision making in urban environments

Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5^OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5^OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments.     

Climate change transformation: A definition and typology to guide decision making in urban environments

Climate change presents a threat to the sustainability of cities and their societies, and must be adequately addressed. Urban environments (cities) are responsible for the creation of a significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions which are the source of climate change. Cities have been increasingly the focus of action to address climate change, yet emissions are not significantly reducing. Additionally, there a lack of integration between adaptation and mitigation. This prevents responses adequate to limit global warming to 1.5^OC, and to be well adapted to anticipated changes. This paper critically analyses existing definitions and typologies of climate change actions. A definition of ‘climate change transformation’ is proposed which includes the integration of adaptation and mitigation goals to enable a new regime in which global warming is limited to 1.5^OC. A new three-part typology: ‘coping, malaction and transformation,’ is presented for categorising climate change actions by the extent to which they integrate adaptation and mitigation, and define a new regime. The typology is accompanied by illustrations to demonstrate the relationship between adaptation and mitigation. The definition, typology and illustration serve to guide effective climate change decision making, and provides principles to guide application in urban environments.