A generalized probabilistic approach for slope analysis

Summary A new probabilistic approach is introduced for slope stability analysis, which is general in types of variable distributions and correlations or dependency between variables, and flexible enough to include any adverse impact analysis for blasting vibrations and groundwater conditions.The material strength within a slope area, given in terms of the internal friction angle (ø) and cohesion (c), is randomized in the bivariate joint probability analysis. To be a completely general engineering method, the new probabilistic approach employs the random variable transformation technique: the Hermite model of the Gaussian transformation function, which transforms the experimental histogram of shear strength parameters to the standard Gaussian distribution (=0, ²=1.0).Because a binormal joint probability is analysed on the true probability region projected on the plane of the Gaussian transformed variables, it is an exact solution of slope stability based on the available sample data. No assumption on the shape of the experimental histogram or independency between two random variables is made as in the current probability methods of slope analysis.     

A probabilistic approach to post-wildfire debris-flow volume modeling

As populations continue to move into more mountainous terrain, a greater understanding of the processes controlling debris flows has become important for the protection of human life and property. The potential volume of an expected debris flow must be known to effectively mitigate any hazard it may pose, yet an accurate estimate of this parameter has to this point been difficult to model. To this end, a probabilistic method for the prediction of debris flow volumes using a database of 1351 yield rate measurements from 33 post-wildfire, runoff-generated debris flows in the Western USA is presented herein. A number of geomorphological, climatic, and geotechnical basin characteristics were considered for inclusion in the model, and correlation analysis was conducted to identify those with the greatest influence on debris flow yield rates. Groupings within the database were then clustered based on their similarity levels; a total of six clusters were identified with similar slope angle and burn intensity characteristics. For each of these six clusters, a probability density function detailing the distribution of yield rates within the cluster was developed. The model uses a Monte Carlo simulation to combine each of these distributions into a single probabilistic model for any basin in which a debris flow is expected to occur. This approach was validated by applying the model to ten basins that experienced debris flows of known volumes throughout the Western USA. The model predicted nine of the ten debris flow volumes to within the 95% confidence interval of the final distribution; a regression analysis for the ten volumes resulted in an R ² of 0.816. These results compared favorably with those generated by an existing volume model. This approach provides accurate results based on easily obtainable data, encouraging widespread use in land planning and development.     

A probabilistic approach to the assessment of uranium resources

This paper presents a probabilistic approach to the estimation of uranium resources that allows for the integration of geologic observations with the experience and judgment of geologists. The paper focuses on estimating roll-front type deposits. The approach is based on a quantitative material balance model of ore formation that describes the quantity of uranium resources in terms of several key parameters constituting the quantity of uranium entering a host, and the fraction of the entering uranium that has been precipitated. The parameters cannot necessarily be measured in the field, but they can be inferred from available information and interpretation of field observations. The key to this approach is eliciting these inferences from geologists, representing the uncertainties inherent in drawing the geologic inferences as probability distributions, and combining the distributions to arrive at a probability distribution for uranium resources in a region. This paper presents the model, procedures for eliciting subjective probabilities and updating the distribution over resources within a Bayesian framework, and a demonstration of the procedure by obtaining estimates for three roll-front type deposits in Wyoming.     

群桩沉降计算理论分析

基于Geddes应力解,并根据叠加原理计算群桩内任意点处的三向应力,采用基于Duncen-Chang本构模型的修正分层总和法计算群桩内任意点处的沉降量,最后,根据基点法[1]和群桩基础荷载、变形协调关系建立方程,从而,最终获得群桩的沉降计算。该理论较常规弹性理论方法计算群桩沉降有较大地改进,具体体现在以下几个方面：（1）考虑了群桩中地基土的三向应力分布对群桩沉降计算的影响;（2）考虑了土体本构模型（Duncen-Chang弹性非线性本构模型）,因而,能计及土体非线性特性对群桩沉降的影响;（3）采用修正分层总和法理论,能考虑土体成层分布特性以及侧向变形对单桩沉降计算的影响。     

群桩沉降简化计算方法

将均质土和成层土中的单桩桩顶沉降分成桩端力引起的沉降、桩身压缩和桩侧阻力引起的沉降3部分分别计算,获得单桩沉降后,运用等代墩法可获得群桩的平均沉降。单桩沉降计算方法可考虑桩端力与桩端位移的非线性关系和桩侧阻力引起沉降的非线性特性,同时计算方法可考虑桩身压缩对桩顶沉降的贡献。算例分析表明,计算值与实测值和其他方法的计算值有较好的一致性,验证了该方法的合理性。     

Revisiting the effect of foundation embedment on elastic settlement: A new approach

The effect of foundation embedment on settlement calculation is a widely researched topic in which there is no scientific consensus regarding the magnitude of settlement reduction. In this paper, a non-linear three dimensional Finite Element analysis has been performed with the aim of evaluating the aforementioned effect. For this purpose, 1800 models were run considering different variables, such as the depth and dimensions of the foundation and the Young’s modulus and Poisson’s ratio of the soil. The settlements from models with foundations at surface level and at depth were then compared and the relationship between them established. The statistical analysis of this data allowed two new expressions, with a mean maximum error of 1.80%, for the embedment influence factor of a foundation to be proposed and these to be compared with commonly used corrections. The proposed equations were validated by comparing the settlements calculated with the proposed influence factors and the true settlements measured in several real foundations. From the comprehensive study of all modelled cases, an improved approach, when compared to those proposed by other authors, for the calculation of the true elastic settlements of an embedded foundation is proposed.     

Bivariate simulation using copula and its application to probabilistic pile settlement analysis

This paper aims to propose a procedure for modeling the joint probability distribution of bivariate uncertain data with a nonlinear dependence structure. First, the concept of dependence measures is briefly introduced. Then, both the Akaike Information Criterion and the Bayesian Information Criterion are adopted for identifying the best‐fit copula. Thereafter, simulation of copulas and bivariate distributions based on Monte Carlo simulation are presented. Practical application for serviceability limit state reliability analysis of piles is conducted. Finally, four load–test datasets of load–displacement curves of piles are used to illustrate the proposed procedure. The results indicate that the proposed copula‐based procedure can model and simulate the bivariate probability distribution of two curve‐fitting parameters underlying the load–displacement models of piles in a more general way. The simulated load–displacement curves using the proposed procedure are found to be in good agreement with the measured results. In most cases, the Gaussian copula, often adopted out of expedience without proper validation, is not the best‐fit copula for modeling the dependence structure underlying two curve‐fitting parameters. The conditional probability density functions obtained from the Gaussian copula differ considerably from those obtained from the best‐fit copula. The probabilities of failure associated with the Gaussian copula are significantly smaller than the reference solutions, which are very unconservative for pile safety assessment. If the strong negative correlation between the two curve‐fitting parameters is ignored, the scatter in the measured load–displacement curves cannot be simulated properly, and the probabilities of failure will be highly overestimated. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

层状地基群桩沉降研究

考虑了桩的加筋与遮帘效应,通过剪切位移法依据力与位移的协调条件得出桩的柔度系数。在此基础上建立土的成层性模型,根据桩顶与桩底的物理关系推导了桩顶沉降与荷载关系的解析解。通过工程算例进行比较,结果表明, 以土层状模型建立的群桩沉降计算方法是可行的。分析表明, 加固区土层不同分布对桩沉降有所影响,浅部土模量的提高有利于减小沉降。     

A soft computing approach to tunnel face stability in a probabilistic framework

Acta Geotechnica - Tunnel face is important for shallow tunnels to avoid collapses. In this study, tunnel face stability is studied with soft computing techniques. A database is created based on...     

A FORM-based approach for probabilistic analysis in geotechnics: Application to a reinforced concrete drainage culvert

As numerical models are increasingly used as a design tool in geotechnical engineering, it is highly desirable if geotechnical reliability analysis can be conducted based on numeral models. Currently, the practical use of geotechnical reliability analysis-based numerical models is still quite limited. In this study, an easy to access method is derived to conduct geotechnical reliability analysis based on numerical models. To facilitate its application, a procedure is outlined to implement the suggested method such that geotechnical reliability analysis can be automated using existing geotechnical numerical packages. The procedure is illustrated in detail with an example, and the source codes provided can be easily adapted to analyze other similar problems. The method described in this paper is used to study the reliability of a deteriorating reinforced concrete drainage culvert in Shanghai, China. The suggested method provides a convenient means for reliability analysis of complex geotechnical problems.     

Geoarchaeological simulation of meandering river deposits and settlement distributions: A three‐dimensional approach

Fluvial processes have the potential to obscure, expose, or even destroy portions of the archaeological record. Floodplain aggradation can bury and hide archaeological features, whereas actively migrating channels can erode them. The archaeological record preserved in the subsurface of a fluvial system is potentially fragmented and is three‐dimensionally complex, especially when the system has been subjected to successive phases of alluviation and entrenchment. A simulation model is presented to gain insight into the threedimensional subsurface distribution, visibility, and preservation potential of the archaeological record in a meander‐floodplain system as a function of geomorphic history. Simulation results indicate that fluvial cut‐fill cycles can strongly influence the density of archaeological material in the subsurface. Thus, interpretation of floodplain habitation based solely upon features visible in the shallow subsurface (through traditional techniques such as aerial photography and geophysical prospection) can be misleading. In the examples, the loss of archaeological record by channel migration ranges between 45% and 90% over 12,000 years for channel belt‐dominated systems, decreasing to 10 to 30% for rivers where the floodplain width is a multiple of channel belt width. The modeling presented can be used to test excavation strategies in relation to hypothesized scenarios of stratigraphic evolution for archaeological sites. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Holocene settlement in the rio de la plata littoral (argentina): A methodological approach

Cultural and faunal remains from archaeological sites of the Rio de La Plata littoral, Argentina, have been studied, attempting to verify their primary associations and occupations during the Holocene. the sites were localized within shell beach ridges more or less parallel to the present shore and are composed of bivalves, gastropods, scarce barnacles, and sandy sediments. the thanatocoenosis found could be equivalent to a transitional area between fluviomarine (mixohaline) and oceanic (polyeuhaline) gradients, i.e., an environment with greater salinity conditions than that of the adjacent coast in the present estuary. These deposits correspond to the Las Escobas Formation (Holocene). Archaeological remains were found from the base of the shell ridge up into the overlying sediments. the hypothesis proposed here is that the human occupation is not contemporaneous with the formation of the shell ridge. the cultural sequence in this kind of site can be altered by disturbances of the stratigraphy as a consequence of environmental and geological events.     

Transnational ties and intra-immigrant group settlement experiences: A case study of Indian Bengalis and Bangladeshis in Toronto

Transnational theories have established that, after migrating to a new country, migrants often maintain their pre-existing social, economic, and political ties to their home country. The extent to which however, transnational institutional and social connections may affect the residential location and housing experiences of immigrant and refugee groups, and why and how these experiences differ within broadly defined immigrant groups such as the ‘South Asians’ remains unexplored. Building on transnational theory and previous research on the housing trajectories of new Canadians, this paper examines the housing experiences of two recently arrived ‘South Asian’ subgroups in Toronto–Indian Bengalis and Bangladeshis. By highlighting important intra-immigrant group differences, the study reveals how diverse transnational ties affect their neighbourhood choice and the type, tenure, and quality of housing when they first arrived in Toronto.     

A probabilistic approach for earthquake risk assessment based on an engineering insurance portfolio

This paper presents the construction classification of the existing engineering covers in Taiwan. The exposure profile and variable vulnerability during different construction phases are established for some kinds of classes of construction. Finally, we present a method and framework to estimate the probable maximum loss of engineering insurance portfolio during an earthquake with consideration of the dynamic nature of structural changes and exposure values during a construction project.     

Multi-sensor approach to settlement analysis of earth dams

In this paper, a fusion method for the settlement study of the earth dams based on geodetic and geotechnical data is developed. The developed method can be algorithmically explained as follows: (a) interpolation of the geotechnical data to the epoch of geodetic observations by four degree polynomial fitting, which serves as a low-pass filter. (b) Conversion of the initial observations into time series of the dam heights at the geodetic and geotechnical stations. (c) Fusion of the data from the two sources at different fusion levels. (d) Final decision based on the deformation parameters derived from fused data. The significant innovation of the proposed method centered upon its ability to incorporate geodetic and geotechnical observation types into a one integrated solution through fusion. The method is numerically tested for the Karkhe earth dam by using geodetic and geotechnical data from 1997 till 2009. The numerical evaluation at 229 check points indicates more than 70% improvement in the settlementmodeling based on the fusion of the geodetic and geotechnical data, as compared to the settlement modeling based on geotechnical data alone.     

A generalized probabilistic approach for slope analysis: practical application to an open pit iron ore mine

Summary An example of the generalized probabilistic approach to slope analysis is given through a case study on an iron ore mine. A step by step engineering procedure is described, so that a practical application can be made to other structures under different field conditions.     

Load-displacement uncertainty of vertically loaded shallow footings on sands and effects on probabilistic settlement estimation

This article focuses on the statistical characterisation and stochastic modelling of the load-displacement behaviour of shallow footings on cohesionless soils and on the probabilistic estimation of settlement for serviceability limit state design (LSD). The study relies on a field database of 30 full-scale footings subjected to vertical loading with cone penetration testing data available for each site. The performance of three load-displacement models in replicating field data is assessed comparatively through statistical analysis. Load-displacement uncertainty is subsequently modelled probabilistically to perform Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS)-based estimation of footing settlement using the best-performing power law model. The dependence among load-displacement model parameters is investigated and replicated using copula theory. Samples are generated to account for parametric uncertainties in model inputs. The simulation output samples of settlement are examined statistically in order to assess the relevance of parametric and load-displacement uncertainties in settlement estimation, as well as the importance of accounting for correlation between power law model parameters. A simple analytical model for the estimation of settlement at any target reliability level is obtained on the basis of the outputs of MCS. The model can be practically implemented in geotechnical LSD at serviceability limit states.     

A new probabilistic approach to analysis of compressive strength test data of rock specimens

In this paper, a new probabilistic approach has been proposed for dealing with the wide scatter in laboratory values of compressive strength test (uni-axial and tri-axial compressive strength tests) data of rock specimens. This wide scatter is essentially due to randomness in number as well as orientation of micro-cracks. In the proposed methodology, Stanley's approach, which uses Weibull's theory based on the weakest link model, has been modified to analyse the compressive strength test data. Stanley's approach is applicable to poly-axial tensile stress conditions. Design of all underground excavations requires, as input data, uni-axial compressive strength and the strength under poly-axial stress conditions. Data from compressive strength tests have been analysed using Weibull's theory and the proposed approach. Corresponding cumulative distribution functions of the state variable, i.e., the applied stress level, have been obtained and goodness-of-fit tests performed to check the fitness of test data to these statistical distributions. These cumulative distribution functions have been subsequently invoked to correlate the applied stress level at failure and the associated risk of failure. The analysis finds its application in specifying the design strength of rocks or rock masses for a permissible probability of failure.     

Development of a probabilistic approach for rock wedge failure

For rock slope engineering, uncertainty and variability are inherent in data collected on orientation and strength of discontinuities, yielding a range of results. Unfortunately, conventional deterministic analysis based on the factor of safety concept, requires a fixed representative value for each parameter without regard to the degree of uncertainty involved. Therefore, the deterministic analysis fails to properly represent uncertainty and variability, so common in engineering geology studies. To overcome this shortcoming, the probabilistic analysis method was proposed and used for more than a decade in rock slope stability analysis. However, most probabilistic analyses included a deterministic model as part of the analysis procedure causing subsequent problems, which went uncorrected. The objectives of this paper are to develop a solution for these difficulties in probabilistic analyses and to propose an appropriate simulation procedure for the probabilistic analysis of rock wedge failures. As part of the solution, probability of kinematic instability and probability of kinetic instability are evaluated separately to provide a proper, combined evaluation for failure probability. To evaluate the feasibility of this new probabilistic approach, the procedure is applied to a practical example, a major, highway rock cut in North Carolina, USA. Results of the probabilistic approach are compared to those of the deterministic analysis; findings are significantly different, indicating that the deterministic analysis does not depict rock slope variations, particularly where significant scatter in parameter data occurs.     

Estimating liquefaction-induced settlement of shallow foundations by numerical approach

Occurrence of liquefaction in saturated sand deposits underlying foundation of structure can cause a wide range of structural damages starting from minor settlement, and ending to general failure due to loss of bearing capacity. If the bearing capacity failure is not the problem, reliable estimation of the liquefaction-induced settlement will be of prime importance in assessment of the overall performance of the structure. Currently, there are few procedures with limited application in practice for estimation of settlement of foundations on liquefied ground. Therefore, development of a general relationship is important from the practical viewpoint. In this paper, the dynamic response of shallow foundations on liquefied soils is studied using a 3D fully coupled dynamic analysis. For verification of the numerical model, simulation of a centrifuge experiment is carried out and the analysis results are compared with the experimental measurements. The results of centrifuge experiment are taken from the literature for the purpose of comparison and the experiment has not been performed by the authors. After verification of the numerical model, a practical relationship for estimation of liquefaction-induced settlement of rigid footings on homogeneous loose to medium fine sand is proposed based on the results of a comprehensive parametric study. In the interpretation process, the soil layer thickness in which the liquefaction takes place is found to be a key parameter, since by normalization with respect to this parameter, effects of a number of other parameters can be eliminated.