Continental collision and basin opening in Southern Italy: a new plate subduction in the Tyrrhenian Sea?

An analysis of the spatial distribution of the seismicity of the southern Tyrrhenian Sea is presented with the aim of putting constraints on the geometry of the complex Benioff zone of this area by relocating the earthquakes that occurred in the period 1985–1990. The data set used in this analysis is based on information from ING, ISC, and NEIS databases.

In order to ensure the quality of epi/hypocentral locations, we based our selection of earthquakes on both the available number of P- and S-readings (at least eight P- and two S-pickings) and the epicentral distances of the stations reporting the event (< 5°). Such a selection enabled us to obtain a catalogue of 450 well-located events with focal depths of up to 500 km.

The seismogenetic volumes estimated from the distribution of hypocentres of the whole seismicity analysed were interpreted according to a recent geodynamic model proposed for this area. This has led us to the hypothesis of an active NW-SE-oriented subduction of the lithosphere generated and stressed by the opening of the Tyrrhenian Basin.     

Global strain rates in western to central Himalayas and their implications in seismic hazard assessment

The Himalayas has experienced varying rates of earthquake occurrence in the past in its seismo-tectonically distinguished segments which may be attributed to different physical processes of accumulation of stress and its release, and due diligence is required for its inclusion for working out the seismic hazard. The present paper intends to revisit the various earthquake occurrence models applied to Himalayas and examines it in the light of recent damaging earthquakes in Himalayan belt. Due to discordant seismicity of Himalayas, three types of regions have been considered to estimate larger return period events. The regions selected are (1) the North-West Himalayan Fold and Thrust Belt which is seismically very active, (2) the Garhwal Himalaya which has never experienced large earthquake although sufficient stress exists and (3) the Nepal region which is very seismically active region due to unlocked rupture and frequently experienced large earthquake events. The seismicity parameters have been revisited using two earthquake recurrence models namely constant seismicity and constant moment release. For constant moment release model, the strain rates have been derived from global strain rate model and are converted into seismic moment of earthquake events considering the geometry of the finite source and the rates being consumed fully by the contemporary seismicity. Probability of earthquake occurrence with time has been estimated for each region using both models and compared assuming Poissonian distribution. The results show that seismicity for North-West region is observed to be relatively less when estimated using constant seismicity model which implies that either the occupied accumulated stress is not being unconfined in the form of earthquakes or the compiled earthquake catalogue is insufficient. Similar trend has been observed for seismic gap area but with lesser difference reported from both methods. However, for the Nepal region, the estimated seismicity by the two methods has been found to be relatively less when estimated using constant moment release model which implies that in the Nepal region, accumulated strain is releasing in the form of large earthquake occurrence event. The partial release in second event of May 2015 of similar size shows that the physical process is trying to release the energy with large earthquake event. If it would have been in other regions like that of seismic gap region, the fault may not have released the energy and may be inviting even bigger event in future. It is, therefore, necessary to look into the seismicity from strain rates also for its due interpretation in terms of predicting the seismic hazard in various segments of Himalayas.     

The tectonic regime in Italy inferred from borehole breakout data

In Italy, the horizontal stress directions are well constrained in many regions, but the tectonic regime is not well known because the stress magnitudes are unknown. Our intention is to improve the knowledge of crustal stress in Italy, both at shallow depth and in low seismicity areas. Therefore, we inferred the tectonic regime from the comparison between the depth of breakout occurrence and the physical properties of the rocks in 20 boreholes. The critical value of the maximum horizontal stress, for which the effective tangential stress at the borehole wall overcomes the rock strength to form breakouts, could be computed from rock strength and density. Comparing the theoretical stress distributions for different tectonic regimes with the depth distribution of breakout occurrence, it is possible to infer the tectonic regime that fits best to the breakout depth distribution. We investigated boreholes up to 6 km deep located in different tectonic environments over the Italian peninsula: the Po Plain, the Apenninic chain, the Adriatic foredeep and the Tyrrhenian Quaternary volcanic region. These wells are characterised by breakout data of good quality (A, B and C, according to World Stress Map quality ranking system). The results are in general agreement with the style of faulting derived from earthquake focal mechanisms and other stress indicators. Our results show a predominance of a normal faulting (NF) regime in the inner Apennines and both normal faulting and strike–slip faulting (SS) style in the surrounding regions, possibly also associated with changes in the tectonic regime with depth.     

How lithospheric subduction changes along the Calabrian Arc in southern Italy: geophysical evidences

Recent tomographic investigations performed down to ~300?km depth in the Calabrian Arc region gave insight in favor of the hypothesis that the Ionian subducting slab is continuous in depth beneath the central part of the Arc, while detachment of the deep portion of the subducting structure may have already taken place beneath the edges of the Arc itself. In the present study, we perform new geophysical analyses to further explore the structure of the subduction system and the structure and kinematics of the crustal units in the study area for a more comprehensive view of the local geodynamic scenario. Local earthquake tomography that we address to the exploration of the upper 40?km in the whole region of southern Italy furnishes P-wave velocity domains, suggesting southeast-ward long-term drifting of the southern Tyrrhenian unit with an advancement front matching well with the segment of Calabrian Arc where the subducting slab was found continuous and trench retreat can be presumed to have been active in the most recent times. This scenario of retreating subduction trench inducing drifting of the lithospheric unit overriding the subducting slab is further supported by the analysis of gravity anomalies, allowing us to better constrain the transitional zones between different subduction modes (continuous vs. detached slab) along the Arc. Also, the relocation of recent crustal seismicity, associated with geostructural data taken from the literature, provides evidence for NW-trending seismogenic structures in northeastern Sicily and northern Calabria that we interpret as Subduction-Transform Edge Propagator (STEP) faults guiding the southeast-ward drifting process of the southern Tyrrhenian unit. Crustal earthquake relocations show also seismolineaments in southern Calabria corresponding to the NE-trending longitudinal structures of the Arc where the great shallow earthquakes of 28 December 1908, and 5 and 7 February 1783 occurred. Seismicity and the extensional stress regime detected in these structures find also reasonable location in the proposed scenario, being interpretable in terms of shallow response of the central segment of the Arc to slab rollback and trench retreat.     

A new view of Italian seismicity using 20 years of instrumental recordings

In this paper, we show the seismicity of the past 20 years that occurred in Italy and surrounding regions. Hypocentral locations have been obtained by using P- and S-wave arrival times from the INGV national and several regional permanent seismic networks. More than 48,000 events, selected from an original data set of about 99,780, are used to reconstruct the most complete seismic picture of the Italian region so far. The seismicity distribution allows inference on seismotectonics of this complex region of subduction versus continental collision. Our results clearly reveal the geometry of the Adria and the Ionian subduction and a continuous normal fault belt in the upper crust, following the Apennines mountain range. The depth of the seismogenic layer is computed from the cut-off of seismicity at depth and shows large variations along and across the seismic active regions. Earthquakes are generated by the different velocity of slab retreat and the subsequent asthenospheric upwelling.     

Improved earthquake locations in the Koyna-Warna seismic zone

In estimating the likelihood of an earthquake hazard for a seismically active region, information on the geometry of the potential source is important in quantifying the seismic hazard. The damage from an earthquake varies spatially and is governed by the fault geometry and lithology. As earthquake damage is amplified by guided seismic waves along fault zones, it is important to delineate the disposition of the fault zones by precisely determined hypocentral parameters. We used the double difference (DD) algorithm to relocate earthquakes in the Koyna-Warna seismic zone (KWSZ) region, with the P- and S-wave catalog data from relative arrival time pairs constituting the input. A significant improvement in the hypocentral estimates was achieved, with the epicentral errors <30 m and focal depth errors <75 m i.e. errors have been significantly reduced by an order of magnitude from the parameters determined by HYPO71. The earthquake activity defines three different fault segments. The seismogenic volume is shallower in the south by 3 km, with seismicity in the north extending to a depth of 11 km while in the south the deepest seismicity observed is at a depth of 8 km. By resolving the structure of seismicity in greater detail, we address the salient issues related to the seismotectonics of this region.     

西南地区现代构造应力场与地震活动性的实验研究

前言西南地区(指云南、四川西部地区)位于我国南北构造带即南北地震带的南段,是地壳运动剧烈、构造形态复杂、地震活动十分频繁的地区。它西临印度洋板块的俯冲带,东濒古老稳定的四川地台和黔桂古陆,岩层遭到十分强烈的挤压,形成了一系列平行于印度洋板块的巨型褶皱带、深大断裂带及弧形山脉。     

鄂尔多斯块体周缘地区近期地震活动性与汶川地震应力触发作用的关系

采用β统计对汶川地震前后鄂尔多斯块体周缘地区的地震活动率进行了空间扫描分析,并采用JiChen的震源破裂模型计算了汶川地震产生的库仑破裂应力变化,以研究鄂尔多斯块体周缘地区近期地震活动性与汶川地震应力触发作用的关系。结果发现,鄂尔多斯块体西南缘弧形断裂束的南东段与南缘渭河盆地的地震活动率在汶川地震后提高显著,其他区域的地震活动率没有明显提高,库仑破裂应力计算得到两个区域的应力变化范围分别为0.005～0.02 MPa和0.001～0.01 MPa,表明汶川地震有可能触发了这两个区域的地震活动。鄂尔多斯块体东缘的山西断陷带处于库仑破裂应力计算的应力增加区,应力变化范围为0～0.012 MPa,2009年3月以来发生的4次ML4.5～5.2级强有感至微破坏地震有可能被汶川地震所延迟触发。b值、地震能量释放率与空间相关距离SCL等地震活动性参数随时间变化扫描结果显示,该区域可能处于不断趋近高应力累积的状态,其未来大震有可能提前发生。西缘地区为应力减小区,其目前的地震活动处于正常水平状态。     

Seismic behavior in central Taiwan: Response to stress evolution following the 1999 Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake

Following the 1999 M_w 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, a large amount of seismicity occurred in the Nantou region of central Taiwan. Among the seismic activities, eight M_w ⩾ 5.8 earthquakes took place following the Chi-Chi earthquake, whereas only four earthquakes with comparable magnitudes took place from 1900 to 1998. Since the seismicity rate during the Chi-Chi postseismic period has never returned to the background level, such seismicity activation cannot simply be attributed to modified Omori’s Law decay. In this work, we attempted to associate seismic activities with stress evolution. Based on our work, it appears that the spatial distribution of the consequent seismicity can be associated with increasing coseismic stress. On the contrary, the stress changes imparted by the afterslip; lower crust–upper mantle viscoelastic relaxation; and sequent events resulted in a stress drop in most of the study region. Understanding seismogenic mechanisms in terms of stress evolution would be beneficial to seismic hazard mitigation.     

Coseismic Coulomb stress changes imparted by the 1996 Minahasa Mw7.9 earthquake on the 2018 Palu Mw7.5 earthquake and expected seismicity rate changes

The Mw7.5 Palu earthquake that occurred on September 28, 2018, in Indonesia caused much damage to the city of Palu. Preliminary investigations indicated that the Palu‐Koro Fault (PKF) hosted this damaging event. We calculated the seismicity before and after the 1996 Minahasa Mw7.9 earthquake and found that the seismicity on the PKF was enhanced after this earthquake. The earlier earthquake added Coulomb stress changes (?CFS) to the seismogenic fault plane. We calculated the ?CFS produced by the Palu earthquake on a specified received nodal plane; the results suggest that many aftershocks occurred in the region of increased ?CFS. This region was consistent with the region of increased seismicity. The ?CFS on neighbouring faults increased, and up to 55.282 bar of stress was observed on the PKF. Furthermore, we calculated the expected seismicity rate and found that it will require ~50 years to recover to its original level.     

Recent large fold nucleation in the upper crust: Insight from gravity,magnetic, magnetotelluric and seismicity data (Sierra de Los Filabres–Sierra de Las Estancias,Internal Zones,Betic Cordillera)

Rheological heterogeneities in the upper-crust have a close relationship with the fold position where rigid bodies could constitute initial perturbations that allow the nucleation of folds. Consequently, establish the position and geometry of anomalous rocks located in the upper-crust by geophysical studies help to understand the folded structure observed on surface. New geological observations in the field, along with gravity, magnetic, magnetotelluric and seismicity data, reveal the subsurface structure in the Sierra de Los Filabres–Sierra de Las Estancias folded region part of the Alpine belt in southern Spain. The geometry of the upper crust is determined by geological field data, 2D gravity models, 2D magnetic models and 2D MT resistivity model, while seismicity evidences the location of the deep active structures. These results allow us to propose that a basic rock body at 4 to 9 km depth has determined the nucleation and development of the Sierra de Los Filabres kilometric antiform. N-vergent large late folds are subjected to a variable present-day stress field. Earthquake focal mechanisms suggest the presence in depth of a regional NW–SE compressive stress field. However, most of the seismogenetic structures do not extend up to the surface, where NW–SE and WNW–ESE outcropping active normal faults are observed, thus indicating a NE–SW extension in the upper crust simultaneous to orthogonal NW–SE compression related to reverse faults and minor folds developed in the Eastern Almanzora Corridor and in the nearby Huércal–Overa Basin. The recent and active tectonic studies of cordilleras hinterland subjected to late folding greatly benefits from the integration of surface observations together with geophysical data.     

The influence of different rheological parameters on the surface deformation and stress field of the Aegean–Anatolian region

The Aegean–Anatolian region is characterised by an inhomogeneous deformation pattern with high strain rates and a high seismicity both at the boundaries and in the plate interior. This pattern is controlled by the geometry and rheology of the structural units involved and their tectonic setting. A numerical analysis with a finite-element model of the region is used to quantify the influence of different rheological parameters. Viscoelastic material behaviour is implemented for the mantle lithosphere, whereas the crust is modelled with an elastic–plastic rheology. The variation of the inelastic material properties (viscosity and plastic strength) quantifies the influence of these material parameters on the deformation, stress, and strain patterns. Comparison of the modelled results with geodetic and geophysical observations reveals that the viscosity of the mantle lithosphere is the key to explaining the inhomogeneous deformation pattern. The best-fit model yields a viscosity of 10²⁰ Pa s beneath Anatolia, whereas adjacent regions have viscosities between 10²¹ and 10²³ Pa s. The model also explains the intra-plate seismicity and the stress field as well as its partitioning into regions with strike-slip and normal faulting. The final model is in good agreement with seismological, geodetic, and geological observations. Local deviations can be tracked down to small-scale structures, which are not included in the model.     

Development of a three-dimensional basin model to evaluate the site effects in the tectonically active near-fault region of Gölyaka basin,Düzce,Turkey

Natural Hazards - The high seismicity and tectonic activity of the study area located in a near-fault region in Gölyaka, Düzce, results in a bedrock geometry highly complex in the sense...     

Seismicity changes associated with reservoir loading

Changes in seismic activity have been related to the filling of large reservoirs in over thirty cases. These changes range from variations in the level of micro-earthquake activity detectable only with instruments of high sensitivity to destructive earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 6. On the other hand, the filling of many other large reservoirs has not been accompanied by increased seismicity.

A number of factors may contribute to the generation or absence of post-impounding seismicity. Increased vertical stress due to the load of the reservoir and decreased effective stress due to increased pore pressure can modify the stress regime in the reservoir region. Whether or not these stress changes are sufficient to generate earthquake activity will depend on a complex interaction of the induced stress with the state of pre-existing stress near the reservoir, and on the geologic and hydrologic conditions at the site. The combined effect of increased vertical load and increased pore pressure will have the greatest tendency to increase activity in regions where the maximum compressive stress is vertical (normal faulting). In regions where the minimum compressive stress is vertical (thrust faulting) increased stress due to a vertical load should have a minimum effect. For all of the larger reservoir-induced earthquakes the stress system determined from fault plane solutions is in agreement with the pre-existing stress field in the region of the reservoir. These earthquakes are all of strike-slip or normal type, there being no reported cases of large induced earthquakes with thrusting mechanisms.

The potential for major changes in seismicity may be highest in regions of moderate strain accumulation (low to moderate natural seismicity). In areas of high strain accumulation and high levels of natural seismicity, the stress changes induced by the reservoir will be small compared to natural variations. In aseismic areas, with low strain accumulation, the reservoir-induced stresses may be insufficient to raise the stress level to a state of failure.     

Seismicity and earthquake focal mechanisms in the Baikal rift zone

The seismicity of the Baikal rift zone is considered on the basis of instrumental and field observations. The spatial pattern of epicentres, the frequency of earthquakes and the relations between seismicity and the elements of fault tectonics are analyzed. The regional and local stress states in the crust of the Pribaikalye region, obtained from studying earthquake focal mechanisms for various energies are summarized.     

美国北加州吉塞尔斯诱发地震与热汽田特征的关系

吉塞尔斯地震活动可能是因蒸汽开发引起的.水在一个承受很高构造剪应力和应变的大范围破裂体中汽化为蒸汽。 汽田地震震源机制解与区域构造应变场几乎一致,并且在该区域范围内汽田地震与别的构造地震不易区分。观测中注意到地震活动与注液历史无关,这表明孔隙水压力增高与注液不可能是吉塞尔斯诱发地震的成因。 相反,所有证据都表明诱发地震与孔隙水压力及温度降低有关。形成机制有两种最大可能:其一,是裂隙排水(汽)导致局部剪应力增加所致,其二,是由稳定滑动转化为不稳定滑动(粘滑)。没有其它记载的诱发地震机制与吉塞尔斯汽田条件相符。     

Estimation of Coulomb stress changes and induced earthquake occurrences prediction in the region of Three Gorges Reservoir,China

In the region of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China, there has been occurrence of several frequent earthquakes of moderate intensity since reservoir impounding occurred in 2003. These earthquakes are generally believed to be induced by reservoir impoundment and water-level variations. Usually, the geo-stress will change, when natural earthquakes occur. Following this principle, this paper adopted the rate and state theory to simulate and estimate Coulomb stress changes in the TGR region and obtained the pattern of Coulomb stress changes with time and the event sequence as well as the distribution of Coulomb stress changes in space. First, the TGR regional catalogue was analyzed and processed, leading to quantification of the magnitude of completeness and all of the parameters that are used in the stress–seismicity inversion process, including the reference seismicity rates, characteristic relaxation time, fault constitutive parameters, and stress rates. Second, the temporal evolution of the stress changes in different time windows was computed and analyzed, and it was found that there is an association between the Coulomb stress changes and rates of increase in the cumulative number of earthquakes. In addition, the earthquake occurred in November 2008 (M _S = 4.1) was analyzed and attempted to simulate the distribution of stress changes in space through the stress–seismicity inversion model. The results proved that the modeled area coincides with the historical area of earthquakes that occurred after 2008. Finally, a prediction was made about the earthquake productivity rates after 2015, which showed a declining earthquake rate over time that ultimately returned to the background seismicity. This result is essentially in agreement with Omori’s law. To conclude, it is rational to use the stress-inversion method to analyze the relationship between induced earthquake seismicity and local stress changes as well as to simulate the area of earthquake occurrence and productivity rates of reservoir-induced earthquakes.     

Double-sided subduction with contrasting polarities beneath the Pamir-Hindu Kush: Evidence from focal mechanism solutions and stress field inversion

The Pamir-Hindu Kush region at the western end of the Himalayan-Tibet orogen is one of the most active regions on the globe with strong seismicity and deformation and provides a window to evaluate continental collision linked to two intra-continental subduction zones with different polarities. The seismicity and seismic tomography data show a steep northward subducting slab beneath the Hindu Kush and southward subducting slab under the Pamir. Here, we collect seismic catalogue with 3988 earthquake events to compute seismicity images and waveform data from 926 earthquake events to invert focal mechanism solutions and stress field with a view to characterize the subducting slabs under the Pamir-Hindu Kush region. Our results define two distinct seismic zones: a steep one beneath the Hindu Kush and a broad one beneath the Pamir. Deep and intermediate-depth earthquakes are mainly distributed in the Hindu Kush region which is controlled by thrust faulting, whereas the Pamir is dominated by strike-slip stress regime with shallow and intermediate-depth earthquakes. The area where the maximum principal stress axis is vertical in the southern Pamir corresponds to the location of a high-conductivity low-velocity region that contributes to the seismogenic processes in this region. We interpret the two distinct seismic zones to represent a double-sided subduction system where the Hindu Kush zone represents the northward subduction of the Indian plate, and the Pamir zone shows southward subduction of the Eurasian plate. A transition fault is inferred in the region between the Hindu Kush and the Pamir which regulates the opposing directions of motion of the Indian and Eurasian plates.     

A new case of reservoir triggered seismicity: Govind Ballav Pant reservoir (Rihand dam), central India

We report here that seismicity near Govind Ballav Pant reservoir is strongly influenced by the reservoir operations. It is the second largest reservoir in India, which is built on Rihand river in the failed rift region of central India. Most of the earthquakes occurred during the high water stand in the reservoir with a time lag of about 1 month. We use the concept of coulomb stress change and use Green's function based approach to estimate stresses and pore pressure due to the reservoir load. We find that the reservoir increases coulomb stress on the nearby faults of the region that are favourably oriented for failure in predominantly reverse slip manner under the NNE–SSW compression and thus promotes failure. The above two factors make it an obvious, yet so far unreported case of reservoir triggered seismicity.     

An observational test of the stress accumulation model based on seismicity preceding the 1992 Landers, CA earthquake

We test the Bowman and King [Bowman, D.D., King, G.C.P., 2001a, Accelerating seismicity and stress accumulation before large earthquakes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28 (21), 4039–4042, Bowman, D.D., King, G.C.P., 2001b. Stress transfer and seismicity changes before large earthquakes. C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, 333, 591–599] Stress Accumulation model by examining the evolution of seismicity rates prior to the 1992 Landers, California earthquake. The Stress Accumulation (SA) model was developed to explain observations of accelerating seismicity preceding large earthquakes. The model proposes that accelerating seismicity sequences result from the tectonic loading of large fault structures through aseismic slip in the elasto-plastic lower crust. This loading progressively increases the stress on smaller faults within a critical region around the main structure, thereby causing the observed acceleration of precursory activity. A secondary prediction of the SA model is that the precursory seismicity rates should increase first at the edges of the critical region, with the rates gradually rising over time at closer distances to the main fault. We test this prediction by examining year-long seismicity rates between 1960 and 2004, as a function of distance from the Landers rupture. To quantify the significance of trends in the seismicity rates, we auto-correlate the data, using a range of spatial and temporal lags. We find weak evidence for increased seismicity rates propagating towards the Landers rupture, but cannot conclusively distinguish these results from those obtained for a random earthquake catalog. However, we find a strong indication of periodicity in the rate fluctuations, as well as high correlation between activity 130–170 km from Landers and seismicity rates within 50 km of the Landers rupture temporally offset 1.5–2 years. The implications of this spatio–temporal correlation will be addressed in future studies.