非洲旱灾的时序变化及健康风险评估

为分析25 a 来非洲旱灾的时间变化趋势及其对各国人口健康的风险,利用1990―2014 年国际灾害数据库（EM-DAT）数据对非洲干旱灾害发生次数、百万人口受影响人数等进行统计,分析其年际变化规律;基于灾害风险评估危险性、暴露性、脆弱性、抗灾能力4 要素,建立非洲旱灾健康风险评估模型,并结合非洲旱灾的主要健康效应,建立多指标综合评价体系,确定权重,对各国旱灾健康风险进行定量评估。结果表明：1）受全球气候变化和大尺度环流异常的影响,非洲干旱灾害发生次数呈波动上升趋势。2）霍乱、营养不良作为旱灾的主要健康效应,主要与旱灾发生频次、影响人数、人口总量、获改善饮用水人口比例、获改善卫生设施人口比例、15 岁以下儿童比例、农村人口比例、政府稳定等自然、社会经济因素有关。3）旱灾发生频次较高的地区危险性较大,对人体健康威胁较严重,而人口总量较大的国家对旱灾暴露量较大,增加了健康风险。改水改厕可提高饮 用水的卫生条件,既减小霍乱与其他水传疾病的流行,也对减少营养不良率起着至关重要的作用。政府稳定度高是国家防灾、抗灾能力建设的基本保障,而农村人口比例、15 岁以下儿童比例为粮食不安全的主要脆弱人群,受灾害健康威胁相对较大。4）从西非马里、尼日尔向东延伸至东非之角的索马里,再向南至南非,因旱灾发生频率高、人口暴露量大、脆弱性大且应灾能力相对较弱,成为旱灾健康风险较高地区。     

广东省水稻旱灾的评价及防旱抗旱对策

根据广东省水稻旱灾实况，提出了水稻旱情和干旱灾情没的评价指标，分析了广东省解放后历年旱，晚稻旱情和灾情及分布和变化规律，并针对本省的自然条件和灌溉现状提出了防旱抗旱措施。     

Diets of mammalian herbivores in Australian arid, hilly shrublands: seasonal effects on overlap between euros (hill kangaroos), sheep and feral goats, and on dietary niche breadths and electivities

The diets of euros or hill kangaroos (Macropus robustus), domestic sheep (Ovis aries) and feral goats (Capra hircus) in hilly, shrub rangeland in southern Australia were examined in a 12-year study. Levels of dietary overlap between these herbivores, their foraging in relation to resource availability, and the potential for competition in different conditions were also examined. The diet of euros was based around grasses. In dry seasons some shrubs were also eaten but in severe drought grass formed more than 80% of their diet. While grass was important to sheep in wetter conditions, they ate much shrub in dry conditions. Feral goats had broad diets but their preference for browse was high. In drought, euros had only a modest dietary overlap with sheep and goats. Data for dietary niche breadths and electivities pointed to only limited competition between the herbivores.     

未来气候变化对我国南方水稻主产区季节性干旱的影响评估

研究我国水稻主产区季节性干旱受未来气候变化的影响, 对调整水稻种植布局、提高水稻生产适应气候变化能力具有重要意义。本文通过对比时间跨度为1981-2030 年水稻生产可用水量和季节性干旱的时空分布和干旱程度, 得出气候变化对未来我国水稻主产区季节性干旱有显著影响。主要结论有:2001-2030 年(对照期) 与1980-2000 年(基准期) 对比, (1) 早稻和晚稻生长季可用水量均值增加了10%以上, 中稻生长季可用水量保持不变。同时, 中稻和晚稻的生长季可用水量的空间分布更加均匀, 表明由于气候变化的影响, 水稻主产区水稻生长季可用水量从整体上会更加充沛、空间分布会更加均匀, 有利于缓解季节性干旱的发生。(2)水稻的季节性干旱均呈下降趋势, 早稻季节性干旱减少1.25 万km², 中稻季节性干旱减少8.00万km², 特别是晚稻季节性干旱减少25 万km², 几乎占晚稻种植面积的20%。表明由于气候变化的影响, 水稻主产区水稻季节性干旱总体趋于缓解, 特别是晚稻季节性干旱问题有明显改善。(3) 通过建立水文循环过程中可用水量与作物生长季需水量之间的关系, 构建的基于分布式水文模型的水分供需指数(WSDI) 适用于评估未来气候对水稻主产区季节性干旱的影响。     

PATTERN, CAUSES AND ESSENCE OF DESERTIFICATION IN SAHEL OF WEST AFRICA

Sahelwasunknowninthepastformostpeopleintheworld.However,seriousdroughtanddesertificationhappenedduring1968-1973andconsequently,alotofpeopleandlivestockdied,thenitbecamethemostnotoriousregionintheworld.MinysclentistsfromdiffeotcoUntriesintheworidweredoplyc…     

广东干旱害的气候成因及其防御对策

分析了广东干旱害的气候成因 ,特别对 1998年下半年以来广东气候异常、旱情严重、春耕生产受阻作了具体分析 ,并提出了防御干旱害的对策。     

DROUGHT DISASTERS AND ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE DURING PAST 30 YEARS IN AFRICA

AfricaisadevelopingcontinentwherequiteafeWcoUnnesarepoliticallyunstable,economicallydifficultor/andhavehadsenousdisasters,especlallydroughdisasters.ThedroughdisastersinAfricahavehadfarmoreseriousresults,farlargeraffededareasthan0thercontinatsdunngpastafeWdecades.Thedeatht0llbecauseOfthemwasstrildng.Inffospaperthebasicsituationandtheresultsofdroughsanddroughdisasters,therootcausesOfthedisastersandmeasuresf0rcontrollingthemareconsideredandanalysedfromthevieWPolntofenvironmentalchmp.klltheseas…     

民勤荒漠区几种主要固沙植物群落的水分平衡特性

 为了研究在自然状态下植物群落的自然稀疏密度、水分营养面积和耗水量等水分平衡特性,选择民勤荒漠几种典型植物群落,运用连续4 a的样方观测资料,分析了天然沙蒿、天然麻黄和人工梭梭林群落在自然降水条件下植物群落的自然稀疏密度、水分营养面积和耗水量等水分平衡特性。结果表明:天然沙蒿、天然麻黄和人工梭梭林群落在当地的自然稀疏密度相对稳定。群落中成年梭梭林的年耗水量与他人在同一地区用蒸渗仪且地下水位控制在1.4 m时测定的3 a幼苗的耗水量相当,梭梭密度较他人用降水量和蒸腾量、蒸发量推算的密度偏小。实验条件下单株植物的耗水量并不等于群落中个体的平均耗水量,在自然状态下研究得到的单株耗水量较在实验条件的下结论更为真实。植物蒸腾耗水量方面研究的真正有意义的是其在接近凋萎时的蒸腾耗水量,而不是特定供水条件下的几个特定值。     

Summer and winter drought in a cold desert ecosystem (Colorado Plateau) part I: effects on soil water and plant water uptake

We investigated the effects of winter and summer drought on plants of the Colorado Plateau in western North America. This winter-cold, summer-hot desert region receives both winter and summer precipitation. Droughts were imposed for two consecutive years using rainout shelters. Here, we examine drought effects on the hydrologic interactions between plants and soil. We chose three perennial species for this study, representing different rooting patterns and responsiveness to precipitation pulses: Oryzopsis hymenoides, a perennial bunch grass with shallow roots; Gutierrezia sarothrae, a subshrub with dimorphic roots; and Ceratoides lanata, a predominantly deep-rooted woody shrub. Drought effects on plant water status were qualitatively similar among species, despite morphological differences. Summer drought affected the water status of all species more negatively than winter drought. Isotopic analysis of stem water revealed that all three species took up deeper soil water under drought conditions and shallow soil water after a large rainfall event in summer. Thus all three species appeared to use the same water sources most of the time. However, after a particularly dry summer, only the deepest-rooted species continued to take up soil water, while the more shallow-rooted species were either dead or dormant. Our study suggests therefore that increased occurrence of summer drought could favor the most deep-rooted species in ecosystem.     

几种沙生灌木耐旱生理特性的研究

本文对盐池沙地六种灌木进行了耐旱生理特性的研究。研究内容包括相对含水量, 组织含水量、水势、蒸腾速率和气孔传导速率。结果表明, 毛条和柠条的各项生理指标均表现出较强的耐旱能力; 霸王和白茨以其低水势, 低蒸腾速率和气孔传导速率的方式耐旱; 而花棒和山竹子则以其庞大的根系吸取较多的水分, 维持植株高水势, 以保证其在水分亏缺下体内新陈代谢之需。由此可以认为, 耐旱植物不是循同一途径或方式耐旱的。     

未来气候情景下我国北方地区干旱时空变化趋势

干旱是我国北方地区最为突出的环境问题。根据WCRP耦合模式输出的未来气候变化逐月资料,基于降水-蒸发力标准化干旱指数（SPEI）,分析了IPCC SRES A1B、A2和B1三种情景下,2011-2050年我国北方地区干旱状况的时空变化趋势。结果表明：中国北方地区未来40 a呈现干旱化倾向,其中轻度和中度季节性干旱发生频率降低,重度和极端季节性干旱发生频率增加,增温引起的地表蒸发增加是极端干旱频发的主要原因。A1B、B1和A2情景下,2040s整个北方地区极端干旱频率增加、强度增强、影响范围明显扩大。极端干旱的增加可能给农业生产带来风险,采取有效应对措施,将有利于区域农业的可持续发展。     

沙漠腹地醉鱼草（Buddleja alternifolia） 栽培苗对水盐胁迫的响应

为了研究盐、旱及其交互胁迫下植物生长和生理特性的变化,了解沙漠腹地极端生境下互 叶醉鱼草（Buddleja alternifolia）幼苗的适应性,确定合理的灌溉方式,为沙漠腹地醉鱼草的引种提 供理论依据。通过大田控制实验,设计了 3 个水分梯度和 4 个盐分梯度随机结合实验,定位测量生 长量和生化指标,最后基于隶属函数法综合评价醉鱼草的抗旱耐盐性。结果表明：（1）在干旱胁迫 或低浓度盐胁迫下,醉鱼草的地径、新枝和冠幅生长量均呈上升趋势,而在高盐浓度胁迫下均降 低;水盐交互胁迫下,不同的盐浓度与干旱交互胁迫效果不同,低盐浓度与干旱交互胁迫时（W1S1、 W2S1）,植物生长量均上升,高盐浓度与干旱交互胁迫时（W1S3、W2S3）,植物生长量均降低。（2）无论 是盐胁迫、干旱胁迫还是盐、旱交互胁迫,醉鱼草游离脯氨酸（Pro）含量随着胁迫程度的增加均呈显 著上升的趋势。（3）醉鱼草的超氧化物歧化酶（SOD）活性和过氧化物酶（POD）活性变化相对复杂, 除了在干旱胁迫时,SOD 活性和 POD 活性都显著下降外,在盐胁迫和交互胁迫时它们各自的变化并 不一致。醉鱼草在盐胁迫、交叉胁迫和干旱胁迫时,渗透调节物质和酶活性各自对应的发生了变 化,没有明显的同步性,存在相互协调的可能,同时植物细胞的敏感性远远强于表型生长的变化, 高盐浓度的伤害并没有表现在植物外部形态上,但酶活性及渗透调节物质却有显著变化。通过隶 属函数分析显示,醉鱼草最佳的生长水盐条件是盐浓度为 8 g·L^-1、灌水量为 25 L·次^-1,对水盐胁迫 的抗旱耐盐性为：干旱胁迫＞交互胁迫＞盐胁迫。     

1947-2006年东半球陆地干旱化特征——基于SPEI数据的分析

 利用1947—2006年逐月全球陆地高分辨率(0.5°×0.5°)标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index)资料,分析了过去60 a东半球(40°S—80°N,20°W—180°E)陆地的干旱化趋势和变率、干旱面积变化、干旱事件的持续性和周期性以及可能的变化成因等。结果显示,东半球80%的陆地上目前处于干旱化进程中,其中北非及中蒙边界等地干旱化趋势最为显著。干旱变率最大地区出现在非洲北部、中国青藏高原、中国西北东部及中蒙边界一带、俄罗斯中北部以及东北部。北非、中蒙边界中段及中国青藏高原地区也是持续性异常干旱事件出现频次最高的地区。基于功率谱的周期分析则显示,东半球大部分地区第一显著周期为1.5～3 a左右,中亚部分地区存在准4 a周期振荡,而北非地区存在准12 a周期的年代际变化。SPEI距平场的经验正交函数(EOF)分析第一模态反映了东半球陆地大部分地区干旱化总体上具有一致性,对应的时间函数与全球陆地气温距平相关系数高达0.81,表明全球变暖与东半球干旱化趋势有着紧密联系;第二模态对应的时间函数与超前8个月的南方涛动指数(SOI)的相关系数为0.60,因而大尺度的干旱周期性振荡受ENSO活动影响显著。     

干旱胁迫下的胡杨脯氨酸累积特点分析

以塔里木河下游的主要乔木-胡杨为研究样本，结合野外地下水位临测资料，详细分析了塔里木河下游干旱胁迫环境下胡杨体内脯氨酸的累积与变化。分析研究表明，胡杨体内的脯氨酸含量与塔里木河下游地下水位变化存在密切，脯氨酸含量随地下水位降低而增加，二者相关系数达0．913；在不同地下水位埋深条件下。脯氨酸含量的增加幅度有差异；胡杨体内的脯氨酸含量随干旱胁迫的加深而积累，是胡杨对干旱逆境的一种反应。表明塔里木河下游胡杨的生长发育已受到严重的干旱胁迫。     

Characteristics of Australian droughts under enhanced greenhouse conditions: Results from 14 global climate models

This paper presents characteristics of droughts simulated by global climate models (GCMs) under enhanced greenhouse gases conditions. We used a drought index called the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) which takes both rainfall and potential evapotranspiration into account to investigate variations of droughts among 12 regions in Australia. The RDI was applied to simulated climate variables from 14 GCMs performed for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report.The results show a general increase in drought areal extent and/or frequency for most regions. However, the increases are not significant over the North West, North Queensland, Queensland East Coast and Central Queensland. For most regions, the change beyond 2030 is larger than that prior to 2030, but the uncertainty in the projections also increases with time. By 2030, there is a likely (>66% probability) risk of twice or more drought affected area and/or twice as often drought frequency over South West Western Australia. By 2050, this will include the Murray-Darling Basin, South Australia and Victoria, and by 2070 this will extend to New South Wales and Tasmania. For North Queensland such a risk is unlikely (<33% probability) for the next 100 years. This information can be considered indicative in long-term planning focussing on sustainability.     

科尔沁沙地植被演替的抗逆性特征

在科尔沁不同类型沙地上选择了几种优势植物,通过自然脱水、高温处理过程中抗逆生理指标的测定和叶形态观测,研究了它们的抗逆方式和生理抗逆性差异与科尔沁沙地植被演潜规律的关系。结果表明,在自然脱水、高温处理中流动沙地上的沙米和欧亚旋覆花叶片迅速脱水死亡,而细胞内膜脂过氧化作用强烈引起细胞膜严重受损是其死亡的主要原因;半流动沙地上的差不嘎蒿在胁迫过程中叶变黄,但在复水后能恢复生长,这与其胁迫过程中游离脯氨酸含量增加维持叶渗透压减少水分过度丧失有关,半固定沙地芦苇在胁迫过程中叶干枯死亡,这与其细胞保护酶反应迟钝,积累的氧自由基引起膜脂过氧化作用伤害了膜系统有关;固定沙地上的狗尾草、白草在胁迫过程中萎蔫,复水后恢复生长,生理变化表现为保护酶对胁迫反应快,可溶性糖、游离脯氨酸含量增加,是一真正生理抗逆植物。在生境从流动沙地向固定沙地演变过程中,植物抗逆性在植被演替序列中起重要作用,其演替规律为:①从躲避干旱向生理抗旱发展,其中流动沙地上的沙米、欧亚旋覆花以种子形式躲避逆境,固定沙地的白草以生理抗旱为主;②从抗风沙型向抗旱性发展,如流动半流动沙地的差不嘎蒿具有抗沙埋、抗旱特性,固定沙地上的白草的抗沙埋性差,抗旱性较强;③生存方式从单一型向多元化发展,沙米主要以种子保存物种,白草则可通过种子和根茎上芽行营养繁殖保存生命;④从多重抗性向寡抗性发展,流动沙地的沙米抗风沙、抗高温、抗干旱,而固定沙地的白草只抗干旱。     

Effects of desertification on the body temperature, activity and water turnover of Angora goats

Globally, pastoral practices have transformed habitats, which often lead to desertification. With climate change predicted to exacerbate desertification, adaptation provides the best survival strategy for agriculturally important herbivores. We investigated body temperature, water turnover, physical activity and microclimate selection of Angora goats inhabiting transformed and intact sites in the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. Although goats on both sites responded similarly under most environmental conditions, when goats were subjected to a thermal stress, imposed by shearing, those inhabiting the transformed site had a faster rate of rise in abdominal temperature (0.38 versus 0.31 °C h⁻¹, P = 0.0009), displayed an increased 24-h abdominal temperature amplitude (1.8 versus 1.6 °C, P = 0.01) and were generally less active (3.9 versus 5.2 activity units) compared to goats inhabiting the intact site. Post-shearing, goats inhabiting the transformed site had higher water turnover rates (P < 0.0001) and selected more variable microclimates (P < 0.0001) than goats inhabiting the intact site, despite obtaining less water from their diet (P = 0.01). Goats inhabiting the transformed site were more water dependent and more susceptible to thermal stresses in their environment than were those inhabiting the intact site. Coping with thermal challenges will be essential for Angora goats if the mohair industry is to thrive under future climate change scenarios.     

Response of the water use efficiency of natural vegetation to drought in Northeast China

Drought has become a problem that is universally faced by global terrestrial ecosystems. Northeast China is located in a region sensitive to global climate changes, and one of the main impacts of climate changes in Northeast China is manifested as drought in growing seasons. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution law of the water use efficiency (WUE) of the main natural vegetation (i.e., cold-temperate coniferous forests, temperate pine-broad-leaved mixed forests, warm-temperate deciduous broad-leaved forests, and grasslands) in Northeast China based on public MODIS data products, including MCD12Q1, MOD15A2H, MOD16A2, and MOD17A3H, and meteorological data from 2002 to 2013. The influence of drought events on the WUE of different vegetation types and their response to drought events are also investigated. The study findings are as follows: (1) drought in Northeast China frequently occurs in the regions stretching from 114.55°E to 120.90°E, and the percentage of drought area among the forests is lower than that among the grasslands during these years; (2) the annual average WUE of the natural vegetation ranges from 0.82 to 1.08 C/kg^-1H₂O, and the WUE of forests (0.82 to 1.08 C/kg^-1H₂O) is universally higher than that of grasslands (0.84 to 0.99 C/kg^-1H₂O); (3) in 2008, the regions where the WUE in drought conditions is higher than that in normal water conditions account for 86.11% of the study area, and a significant linear positive correlation is found between the WUE in drought conditions and the WUE in normal water conditions, whereas the degree of drought does not influence the WUE of the natural vegetation in an obviously linear manner; and (4) the WUE for the cold-temperate coniferous forests and temperate pine-broad-leaved mixed forests with a high ET or low NPP is more likely to rise in drought conditions; the WUE for the grasslands with a low Evapotranspiration (ET), Net Primary Production (NPP), and Leaf Area Index (LAI) is more likely to rise in drought conditions; and the ET, NPP, and LAI have no significant influence on the WUE for the warm-temperate deciduous broad-leaved forests in drought conditions. This study contributes to improving the evaluation of the influence of drought on natural ecosystems.     

Plant–water relationships and growth strategies of Jatropha curcas L. seedlings under different levels of drought stress

Although Jatropha curcas, an important tropical biofuel crop, is reputed for its drought resistance, its ability to perform under dry conditions has hardly been investigated. In a greenhouse experiment we investigated the plant–water relationships of Jatropha seedlings from different accessions under different levels of drought stress. There was little difference in plant–water relations between accessions. Drought significantly reduced leaf area, biomass and relative growth rate, but had no effect on specific leaf area, daily range in leaf water potential, leaf water content, transpiration efficiency or aboveground biomass water productivity, corrected for atmospheric conditions. Stem wood density was equally low (0.26 g cm^?3) for all treatments. Stem water content was lowest for dry treatment seedlings. Based on these results, Jatropha could be characterized as a stem-succulent tree. In contrast to other stem-succulent deciduous trees, leaves were not shed immediately after the seedlings were confronted with drought. Instead, at the onset of drought, leaves with a higher adaxial stomatal density were formed, after which leaves were only gradually shed. The role of the succulent stem in the water economy of Jatropha was confined to balancing the small water losses of the leaves during drought.     

基于Meta-Gaussian模型的中国农业干旱预测研究

在全球气候变化背景下,干旱愈加频发,有效且可靠的农业干旱预测对于保障粮食安全和水资源安全具有重要意义。以标准化降水指数（SPI）和联合标准化土壤湿度指数（JSSI）分别表征气象干旱和农业干旱,以前期的气象干旱和农业干旱指数作为预测因子,在1~3个月预见期下基于Meta-Gaussian（MG）模型对中国1961—2015年6—8月的农业干旱进行预测,并采用Brier Skill Score（BSS）和纳什效率系数（NSE）评价MG模型的预测性能。结果表明：① 将1个月、3个月、6个月、9个月和12个月时间尺度的标准化土壤湿度指数（SSI）结合起来得到的JSSI能够对中国农业干旱的综合状况进行客观评价。② 以中国2010年和2014年遭受严重的干旱事件为例,预见期为1~3个月时,除新疆南部、青海西部以及内蒙古西部等沙漠地区外,MG模型对6—8月农业干旱预测结果的分布范围与实际干旱的分布区域较吻合,预见期越短,吻合越好。③ 预见期为1个月时,6—8月BSS ≥ 0.5的面积比例分别为0.714、0.642和0.640,NSE ≥ 0.5的面积比例分别为0.903、0.829和0.837,表明MG模型能够对中国大部分区域的农业干旱作出可靠的预测。本文结果可为中国农业干旱的监测、预警及干旱决策提供科学指导。