Recurrence characteristics of late-quaternary strong earthquakes on the major active faults along the northern border of Ordos block

Through study on trenches, analysis of recurrence characteristics and recurrence interval cluster/gap of strong earthquakes along the major active faults on the northern border of Ordos block, we found 62 paleoearthquakes that occurred in the late Quaternary, including 33 earthquakes occurring in the Holocene. The recurrence characteristics of the paleoearthquakes are different at three levels, segments, faults, and fault zones. The strong seismic sequence on the independent segments is mostly characterized by long- and short-interval recurrences, while that on the faults and in fault zone is characterized clearly by random and cluster recurrences. Results of the moving window test indicate that the probabilities of “temporal cluster or gap”, caused by random coincidence as opposed to intersegment contagion, are 64% and 70% for the Serteng piedmont fault and for the south-border fault of Wula Mountains, respectively, no clear interaction among the segments of each fault; while the probability is 26.8% for the whole fault zone, suggesting a clear interaction among the faults of this fault zone. These recurrence characteristics may imply an effect of the entire block motion on the recurrence of strong earthquakes. Moreover, the elapsed time for the Wujumeng Pass-Dongfeng Village segment of Serteng piedmont fault and the Tuzuo Banner-Wusutu and the Hohhot segments of Daqingshan piedmont fault has exceeded the average recurrence interval, hence these three segments may be the possible places for future strong earthquakes.     

鄂尔多斯活动地块边界带地震动力学模型与强震危险性研究项目及进展

研究银川盆地的构造活动特征对于认识青藏、鄂尔多斯和阿拉善3大地块的相互作用具有重要意义。银川盆地东南缘的面子山—猪头岭一带地形高差显著,影像上线性明显,可能发育一条未知的活动断裂。本文沿面子山—清水营一线开展了野外地质调查、探槽开挖和地层年代测试等工作,结果表明：银川盆地东南缘发育面子山—清水营断裂,全长50 km,以猪头岭北为界,分为面子山断层和清水营断层两段。面子山断层以高角度正断为主,断层擦痕显示具有左旋走滑运动,走向北东,跨断层数条冲沟显示具有左旋扭动特征;而清水营断层则表现为逆断层,走向北东东,发育陡坎地貌。该断裂断错了（23.65 ± 1.17） ka BP和（33.16 ± 1.82） ka BP的沉积地层,表明断裂最新活动时代为晚更新世晚期。该断层的发现表明,鄂尔多斯地块的西北边界复杂,构造变形带较宽,且不严格的受控于断陷盆地的边界断裂,其构造变形已扩张到地块一侧,这可能与青藏高原持续向东北向的推挤扩展有关。

     

Segmentations of active normal dip-slip faults around ordos block according to their surface ruptures in historical strong earthquakes

IntroductionThe downfaulted system around Ordos block is a typical area in China, in which active normal dip-slip or strike-slip faults with normal dip-slip faults developed, and is also an area in which historical strong earthquakes actively occurred. According to historical records, there were ten strong earthquakes with M(7 occurred during past 1 500 years, including 4 M=8 earthquakes. Study on these historical large earthquakes in the area will be helpful to recognize segmentation charac…     

A study on characteristics of tectonic block motion and tectonic setting of strong earthquakes in northern part of the Shanxi fault depression zone

Introduction Shanxi fault depression zone (SFDZ) is one of important Cenozoic fault basin zones and strong earthquake belts in Chinese mainland. Its northern part has aroused wide research interests due to the complicated tectonics and high activity of strong earthquakes there. Early researches on this depression zone were carried out since 60s of last century (DENG, et al, 1973; DENG, YOU, 1985; LU, DING, 1985; XU, 1990; XU, et al, 1996, 2002). In 90s of last century, the geologica…     

鄂尔多斯周缘地带未来强震发生地区初探

根据对地质构造和构造活动特征的研究可知，鄂尔多斯周缘各断陷盆地均有发生强烈地震的可能，根据对历史地震活动规律和现今地震活动特征的研究，认为，鄂尔多斯周缘未来强震活动具有“填空性”，即历史上已发生过强烈地震的各盆地，近期再次发生的可能性不大；历史上未发生过强烈地震而近一个时段（数十年间）中小地震活动频度比较高，持续时间比较长的某些盆地，如北缘构成河套平原的临河盆地、白彦花盆地、呼和浩特和包头两市所在的呼包盆地，东北缘的大同盆地和延怀盆地等，是未来发生强烈地震（大于7级甚至超过8级）的最优选地段。     

Recurrence behaviors of segment-rupturing earthquakes on active faults of the Chinese mainland

IntroductionStrongorlargeearthquakesoccurredalongaspecificsegmentofanactivefaultarecalledsegment-rupturingearthquakes.Suchearthquakesoccurrepeatedlyatpreviouslocations.Thecurrentrecurrencemodelsforearthquakesrepeatedatpreviouslocationswereproposedonlimiteddatafromcharacteristicearthquakesonplateboundaries,mainlyincludingthetime-predictableandslippredictablemodels(Shimazaki,Nakata,1980),thequasi-periodicmodel(Bakun,McEvilly,1984;Savage,Cockerham,1986),andthetime-andmagnitude-predictablemodel…     

鄂尔多斯活动地块西缘强震间库仑应力作用

本文在梳理相关历史地震和活动构造研究的基础上,详细厘定了鄂尔多斯活动地块西缘1219—1920年10个M≥6½的历史强震的震源参数,建立了相应的黏弹性位错模型,计算分析了强震的同震和震后库仑应力变化与迁移,及其对后续强震断层面上应力作用特征.结果表明,公元1495—1920年间的7个强震存在明显的应力触发关系：随着前序强震的发生与作用,直至后序强震发生前,其断层面整体的累积库仑应力变化都出现了由缓慢变化到快速升高现象,其增长速率相差几倍到几十倍不等.与该现象相反,公元1495年前的强震间累积库仑应力变化以负值为主,没有显示出明显的触发关系.进一步的模拟研究还显示,这些早期的强震对1495及其后强震的发震断层所受到的库仑应力作用的极性和大小影响都不明显.整体上看,1495年前后强震间的库仑应力作用特点与同时期该地区地震应变能释放的相对缓慢和相对快速的两个阶段存在一致性,这种一致性指示出强震引起的库仑应力变化与迁移对鄂尔多斯活动地块西缘边界带可能存在的强震丛集发挥了重要作用.本研究所展示的强震间库仑应力变化的演化特点为进一步揭示强震间触发机制及其演化趋势提供了依据.

     

基于地震活动性资料估计鄂尔多斯块体周缘构造断层面倾角

本文以鄂尔多斯地区为研究对象,探讨了基于地震参数的鄂尔多斯周缘构造几何产状的研究方法.首先,以全国活动构造图为基础,结合地震活动性,确定了鄂尔多斯地区的地表活动构造分布图.其次,对这些活动断裂截取剖面,通过地震震源分布,运用最大似然估计法确定断层面的倾角.最后,结合震源机制解以及地质资料验证了所估计的倾角的可靠性.期望本文建立的鄂尔多斯地区断层几何模型,能为基于GPS观测开展该地区断层滑动速率反演、强震发震构造及强震危险性预测模拟等提供基础.     

软流圈物质运动对鄂尔多斯块体周缘断陷盆地运动特征的影响

研究软流圈物质运动及其对断陷盆地运动特征的影响,是揭示软流圈与岩石圈相互作用,认识华北克拉通破坏的深部动力学过程的基础.本文以鄂尔多斯块体周缘断陷盆地为研究对象,利用数值方法模拟了盆地底部软流圈物质的运动,进而分析了软流圈物质运动对周缘断陷盆地运动特征的影响.研究结果表明：（1）软流圈物质水平运动的区域流向为NWW-SEE向,流速基本一致,局部略有变化.随着深度增加,局部变化特征不再显著;（2）软流圈物质垂向运动存在区域性差异,其中鄂尔多斯体块体北部、西部以及北缘、西缘底部,物质以下沉流为主,尤其西缘下沉流更显著;块体中部、东部以及南缘、西南缘底部,以上升流为主;东缘底部,上升流与下沉流相间分布,以上升流为主.随着深度增加,上述区域性差异特征依然明显;（3）依据热物质的水平拖曳和垂向拉张作用对断陷盆地可能产生的影响,进一步推测,软流圈物质运动有利于北缘盆地的剪切走滑,东缘盆地的伸展拉张,南缘盆地的走滑兼拉张,西缘和西南缘盆地的走滑.

     

鄂尔多斯地块北部至阴山造山带深部电性结构特征研究

在SinoProbe-01项目的资助下,完成了一条跨越鄂尔多斯地块北部、河套断陷盆地和阴山造山带的大地电磁剖面,剖面长约440 km,共包括24个宽频测点和4个宽频-长周期联合测点.采用NLCG算法对TE和TM模式数据进行了二维反演,获得了该剖面的二维电性结构模型.结果表明：鄂尔多斯地块北部由浅至深电性结构比较简单,成层性较好,大体可分为低阻沉积盖层-高阻上地壳-低阻下地壳和上地幔顶部三层;河套断陷盆地和阴山造山带电性结构相对复杂,电阻率高低相间.鄂尔多斯地块北缘、河套断陷盆地以及阴山造山带区域的壳幔高导体可能与硫化物和部分熔融作用有关,而鄂尔多斯地块内部大规模的壳幔高导层可能是由高导矿物引起的.河套断陷盆地的沉降、阴山造山带的地势抬升和鄂尔多斯地块北缘东胜-杭锦旗一带的的隆起之间有着紧密的关系,它们的形成可能与区域伸展构造环境条件下的软流圈物质上涌有关.

     

鄂尔多斯块体北缘与西缘地区地壳各向异性特征

本研究使用内蒙古自治区数字测震台网2010年1月至2017年10月区域小地震的波形记录资料,采用SAM方法,进行了地壳剪切波分裂的分析,得到鄂尔多斯块体北缘与西缘地区地壳介质地震各向异性的初步研究结果.根据15个台站161个有效地震记录的分析,鄂尔多斯块体北缘与西缘地区的快剪切波平均偏振方向为NE44.4°±38.4°,慢剪切波平均时间延迟为1.7±1.6 ms·km^-1.研究区域的快剪切波偏振显示出两个优势方向,一个是NE方向,另一个是近NS方向.区内的逆冲凸起与走滑正倾断层构造对剪切波分裂产生了直接的影响,造成了剪切波分裂参数的复杂分布,反映了剪切波分裂参数受到区域应力和构造共同作用的影响.鄂尔多斯块体北缘的快波偏振特征有NE和近NS两个优势偏振方向,其东区与西区的快剪切波偏振表现出明显不同的特征.东区的第一快剪切波优势偏振方向为NE,第二快剪切波优势偏振方向为近NS;西区的第一快剪切波优势偏振方向为近EW,第二快剪切波优势偏振方向为近NS.鄂尔多斯块体北缘的区域背景主压应力方向可能总体上为近NS方向,但空间分布有差异,东区NE方向的优势偏振与西区近EW方向的优势偏振更可能反映了断裂与构造的影响.鄂尔多斯块体西缘的快剪切波偏振特征显示出非常清楚的NE向的优势偏振方向,近NS向的优势偏振方向则不太明显,反映出该地区复杂构造对各向异性分布的影响.慢波时间延迟呈现出西低东高的特点,时间延迟的高值出现在鄂尔多斯块体北缘的东部,时间延迟的这种西低东高的各向异性强度变化,可能反映了区域构造活动西强东弱的特性.

     

Movement of Ordos block and alternation of activity along its boundaries

The GPS data in and around the Ordos block area indicate that the left-lateral slip rate along the northern or southern margin of the Ordos block is about twice or three times as fast as the right-lateral slip rate along the eastern or western margin of the block. However, many researchers stressed the dextral-slip of the eastern or western boundaries of the Ordos block, and suggested that the block as a whole rotated counterclockwise based on the available geological data. Focusing on the inconsistency, we reexamine the late Cenozoic deformation pattern in the Ordos region based on seismicity data and geodesy data (GPS and leveling) around it. The results indicate that the rigid block-like motion appears to be the basic characteristic of the kinematics of the Ordos region, and this motion is absorbed by the displacement of the faults around the block. When the faults along the northern and southern boundaries of the Ordos block are active, its eastern boundary is inactive. However, if the faults along the eastern boundary are active, the northern and southern are inactive. In recent years, the northern and southern boundaries of the Ordos block are in active. But in the long term, the Ordos block is moving southeastward relative to the Alxa and Yinshan blocks because of the strong pushing of the Tibetan Plateau on its southwestern side, and this deformation is accommodated by the counterclockwise rotation of the block itself.     

天山地块强震活动的时空特征研究

通过对天山地块近百年地震活动时空特征分析表明: ① M_S≥7.0地震沿块体边界成带分布, 南边界带强于北边界带, 南、 北边界带的西部强于东部, 南天山西段是地震活动水平最高、 复发周期最短、 强震序列类型最复杂、 地震危险性最大的地区; ② 地震活动在时间上显示出准周期性, 表现为M_S≥7.0地震具有活跃与平静的交替性及5级以上地震活动度曲线的起伏变化; 最大熵谱计算地震活动度的显著周期为40年, 小波分析给出40年左右周期系数的时间曲线表明, 7级以上地震都发生在曲线由最高值至最低值的下降段, 而上升段为强震的平静期; ③ 在强震活跃期及平静期, 中强以上地震(M_S≥5.0)在块体的不同部位(地块南、 北边界带及块体内部)的分布状态和活动水平存在明显的差异, 在活跃期南、 北边界带中强以上地震的集中性和成带性强, 且彼此活动水平差异小, 但与块体内部差异大; 而在平静期南、 北边界带的活动水平差异大, 块体内部地震活动显著增强; ④ 在活跃期, 天山地块南、 北边界带强震活动存在一定的呼应关系, 当一个边发生强震后, 另一边在数天至数年也存在发生强震的可能。     

中国陆区活动地块边界带主要断层10年尺度强震发生概率

中国陆区孕震环境具有“垂向分层,横向分块”的特征,活动地块边界带对中国陆区的强震具有控制作用,针对活动地块边界带主要断层开展10年尺度强震危险性定量研究对抗震设防工作有重要意义.本文综合不同区域断层离逝率样本建立了中国陆区通用强震复发模型,在此基础上,对各断层段强震概率进行预测.由于中国陆区幅员辽阔,不同断层的研究程度有较大差距,部分断层由于缺乏计算离逝率的资料而无法获得强震概率.因此本文使用不同方法对相关资料进行了补充.针对缺乏强震复发周期记录的断层段,通过统计断层运动速率与强震复发周期的经验关系,使用地震地质资料或大地测量资料给出的断层运动速率计算强震复发周期;针对缺乏强震离逝时间记录的断层段,根据地震目录完整时间给出强震离逝时间的分布.在此基础上,获得了中国陆区活动地块边界带主要断层的391个断层段未来10年的强震累积概率和条件概率.由于相对预测时长对条件概率的影响较大,而中国陆区不同断层段的强震复发周期有较大差别,本文主要依据累积概率分析强震危险性.结果表明,未来10年强震危险性较高的断层段主要集中于川滇菱形地块东边界、青藏高原东北缘、鄂尔多斯地块东边界与西北边界、天山地区和喜马拉雅弧等区域.

     

Distribution of empirical recurrence intervals for segment-rupturing earthquakes on active faults of the Chinese mainland

IntroductionInassessingtheprobabilitiesoftime-dependentandlong-termseismichazardsforsegmentsofactivefaults,itisnecessarytohavetheprobabilitydensity,f(O,fordescribingtherecurrenceintervaldistributionforsegment-rupturingearthquakes.Fromf(nandthefollowingequation,theconditionalprobability,pc,whichincreaseswiththetime,Te,elapsedsincethelatestearthquake,isabletobecalculated(Nishenko,Buland,1987,WorkingGrouponCaliforniaEarthquakeProbabilities,1995;Wen,1995,1998)fwhereATisthetimeintervalforthefor…     

Response of vertical deformation on faults to remote strong earthquakes

Vertical coseismic deformation on non-causative fault caused by remote strong earthquakes(epicentral distance≥1500 km,MS≥7.0)are observed by fault-monitoring instruments of new type during recent two years.The monitor-ing result shows,delay time,maximum amplitude and duration of vertical deformation on the non-causative faulthave remarkable close relationship with earthquakes magnitude and epicentral distance.The delay time of verticalcoseismic deformation have positive linear relationship with epicentral distance.The velocity of coseismic defor-mation is 5.5 km/s,close to the velocity of surface wave in granite.The logarithms of maximum amplitude of co-seismic deformation and epicentral distance have remarkable linear relationship with magnitude.The greater themagnitude and the closer the epicentral distance are,the bigger the maximum amplitude of coseismic deformationon non-causative fault will be.Relative to the epicentral distance,the magnitude is the most important factor to theduration of coseismic vertical deformation on the non-causative fault.Stronger earthquake causes longer vibrationduration of coseismic deformation.The experiential equation of co-seismic deformation faults obtained by thiswork is significant on the coseismic deformation research.     

南北地震带与华北地块强震间的相关迁移

地震震源机制解和地应力实测结果表明, 我国大陆地区存在近似于辐射状的区域应力场, 其辐射中心位于青藏地块东部. 本文首先定义我国大陆应力场近似辐射中心(35°N、 100°E)为动力源点, 在此基础上计算了1900年以来我国大陆东部地区(30°N—44°N、 104°E—125°E)所发生的34次M_S≥6.0地震震中到动力源点的距离与地震发生时间的关系. 结果表明, 20世纪南北地震带中北段发生M_S≥7.0地震后, 华北地块陆续发生了一系列M_S≥6.0地震, 且有随时间从南北地震带附近大体向东迁移的规律. 据此说明, 华北地块的地震主要受控于印度板块作用下青藏地块向我国大陆东部挤压的影响, 在其作用下产生了华北地块M_S≥6.0地震的系列东向迁移活动. 总体来看有4组明显的地震迁移活动, 每组地震“序列”的迁移视速度约为80 km/a. 华北地块首发M_S≥6.0地震距南北地震带中北段最近一次M_S≥7.0地震的时间间隔约为1个月至11.8年, 且60%的M_S≥6.0地震发震地点在(39°N±1.5°)区域内. 据此推测, 2008年汶川M_S8.0和2013年芦山M_S7.0地震后, 华北地块近年存在发生M_S≥6.0地震的可能, 晋冀蒙交界和环渤海及其附近地区值得重点关注.      

Recurrence Behaviors of Earthquakes along the Kefallinia Transform Fault, Ionian Sea, Greece

We examined the whole strong earthquake recurrence behaviors of two fault zones along the Kefallinia Transform, Ionian Sea, Greece, using seismological data and statistical methods. Our data include 29 events with %M%>5^5 for the period 1636～2003. We found different recurrence behaviors for the Kefallinia Fault Zone (clustering and time-predictable recurrence behaviors) and the Lefkada Fault Zone (near random and non-slip-predictable or non-time-predictable recurrence nature). The different modes may be attributed to: (a) segment interaction along-strike (Kefallinia) by static triggering and (b) the influence of fault systems to the north and east on the recurrence on Lefkada. Within the active periods, earthquake recurrence intervals are distributed in a more dispersed fashion, and can be fitted well by a Weibull distribution. In contrast, the distribution of the quiet periods is relatively less dispersed and difficult to describe by suitable probability functions.     

Dynamic simulation of interactions between major earthquakes on the Xianshuihe fault zone

The authors firstly evaluate the strain accumulation rate of the Xianshuihe fault zone based on earth- quake activity. We calculated the stress and seismic moment accumulation rate for each subsection of the Xianshuihe fault zone based on the distribution of geological slip rate and GPS survey results. According to the results, we get the recurrence intervals of characterized earthquakes on each sub- section respectively. A three-dimensional finite element model for western Sichuan is constructed to discuss the earthquakes triggering among major earthquakes (M>6.7) that occurred along the Xianshuihe fault zone since 1893. The calculated Coulomb failure stress changes (ΔCFS) show that 5 of the 6 earthquakes with Ms>6.7 were triggered by positive ΔCFS. The interactions between major earthquakes not only influence recurrence intervals of characterized earthquakes on each subsection, but also change recurrence behavior of major earthquakes along the whole fault zone.     

利用GPS数据探讨鄂尔多斯地块西南缘地壳动态演化特征

利用GPS大地测量数据,借助最小二乘配置方法构建位移与应变间的偏导关系,探讨了鄂尔多斯地块西南缘地震空区近10年尺度地壳运动速度场、应变场的动态演化特征,分析了研究区域较少发生地震的成因。结果表明：地壳物质流在阿拉善地块、鄂尔多斯地块与西秦岭构造区的复杂地质构造交汇处,地壳内部物质流加速东移,板块间应力积累特征不显著;六盘山断裂、陇县—宝鸡断裂带以西,显示了EW向或NE向的压应变,而沿断裂走向则以拉应变为主,表明西侧地壳物质沿鄂尔多斯地块西南缘东迁顺时针旋转的运动状态;在岐山至扶风一带,出现了面膨胀的特征,释放了地壳内部的压应力,但构造内部运动并无闭锁现象出现,这可能降低了研究区域地震孕育与发生的风险。