减少发展中国家毁林及森林退化排放(REDD)的各方观点及对策建议

减少发展中国家毁林及森林退化的温室气体排放已成为《联合国气候变化框架公约》谈判的重要议题。从该公约的第十一次缔约方大会(COP11)以来,各缔约国就此议题提出了各自的观点,除在方法学等问题上存在争议外,在激励机制和毁林纳入清洁发展机制(CDM)与否上也存在分歧,巴西、中美洲及非洲的发展中国家希望通过基金的方式获得额外的资金和技术支持,而美国、澳大利亚和欧盟等发达国家却更倾向于CDM市场机制。结合中国森林管理方面的现状,分析了中国在此议题上可能受到的影响并提出了谈判的对策建议。     

气候变化影响与适应问题的谈判进展

 从《气候变化框架公约》（以下简称《公约》）第一次缔约方会议到目前为止,几乎历次会议都涉及气候变化影响与适应的谈判内容,但谈判进展甚微。通过综述《公约》谈判进程中与适应气候变化有关的主要决定,分析了适应气候变化影响与适应问题谈判的制约因素,最后提出了我国在气候变化影响与适应问题谈判中应持的立场。     

中国稻田甲烷排放在减少

2005年6月8-9日在中国气象局召开了中国科技部和美国能源部合作项目“气候科学”的第三届科学工作组会议。在会上,美国Portland State University物理系Khalil教授做了一个引人注意的报告,基于对中国稻田甲烷排放的多年测量进行分析,提出了中国稻田甲烷排放在减少,人口增长与稻田甲烷排放没有明显的关系,稻田可能不再是一个减少甲烷排放的有效途径以及现在大气甲烷浓度年增长率在减小和变化趋势趋于稳定等结论。笔者对以上结论作了简要介绍和分析。     

伐木制品碳储量议题的谈判进展

伐木制品碳储量对森林生态系统和大气之间的碳平衡起着至关重要的作用,伐木制品替代化石燃料,以及延长产品使用寿命对于减缓温室气体的排放具有很大的潜力。因此,伐木制品的碳储量议题已被列为《联合国气候变化框架公约》谈判的重要议题,并且将成为今后林业议题谈判的重要内容之一。在参与林业议题谈判和分析相关谈判资料的基础上,对各主要谈判方的观点作了简要总结,指出了目前该议题谈判存在的主要问题,并指出了今后谈判和研究的主要方向以及我国谈判的建议,以期为我国今后的履约战略提供支持。     

适应气候变化谈判的焦点问题与趋势分析

综述了近两年在《联合国气候变化框架公约》(简称《公约》)下关于适应气候变化谈判的进展,分析了适应气候变化谈判的焦点问题及各利益集团的立场,结合《公约》第十五次缔约方大会的进展,提出了我国今后在适应气候变化问题上的谈判对策建议。     

国际气候谈判背景下的国家温室气体排放清单编制

基于"共同但有区别的责任"原则,《联合国气候变化框架公约》对附件I和非附件I缔约方提交国家温室气体排放清单的要求不尽相同。2007年以来,发展中国家自主减缓行动透明度、以国家温室气候排放清单为核心的国家信息通报提交频率及其磋商分析问题成为气候谈判争论的焦点之一,发展中国家承担的相关义务有不断增加的趋势。通过阐述该公约对发达国家和发展中国家排放清单编制的不同要求,特别是通过对目前发达国家所接受的清单审评制度和我国国家温室气体排放清单编制情况的分析论述,明确我国国家清单编制所面临的挑战,并提出相应的对策建议。     

中国应对气候变化谈判的几点思考

通过中国和欧盟内部可以增加排放的中等发达国家在人均能源消费、人均CO2排放和人均GDP以及人文发展指标的对比,可以看出中国远低于欧盟5个中等发达国家的水平。因此,中国提出在达到中等发达国家水平之后承担减排义务是有根据的,中国要求获得与自身经济社会发展相适应的温室气体排放空间,以满足国民基本生存和发展的需要是合理的。中国在达到中等发达国家之前,可以考虑承诺在一定时期内保持CO2排放强度不增加。     

《巴厘行动计划》以来适应气候变化谈判进展及未来需求分析

回顾了《巴厘行动计划》以来形成的与适应气候变化议题相关的国际决议及谈判进展,分析了这些决议对推动发展中国家适应气候变化进程的可能作用和面临的障碍,综述了发展中国家和发达国家对“2015气候协议”的利益诉求和建议。作者认为：《巴厘行动计划》以来,《联合国气候变化框架公约》下适应气候变化方面的谈判取得了较明显的进展,建立了适应委员会、国家适应计划进程和应对损失与危害的国际机制等;资金、技术研发、推广和使用、政策法规、机构设置与能力、信息等是提高发展中国家适应气候变化的限制因素;资金、技术转让和能力建设仍是“2015气候协议”谈判的重点和难点。针对非洲集团和小岛屿国家联盟全球适应目标和应对气候变化造成的损失与危害的补偿的提议,作者建议加强科学研究,开发评估方法和工具,探讨气候自然变率和人类活动导致的气候变化影响的归因;同时建议中国进一步加强适应气候变化的南南合作。     

后京都国际气候协定的谈判趋势与对策思考

国际气候制度的谈判错综复杂。然而,2012年以后国际气候承诺的基础,仍将取决于各国的政治意愿、经济利益和科学认知。谈判的平台不仅限于缔约方会议,也可能是缔约方会议体制外的双边、多边乃至单边形式,而且,协议内容将涉及减排、适应、技术、低碳发展等,最终将可能形成在可持续发展框架下适应与减缓气候变化的综合性一揽子协议。中国在未来20 a或更长时间仍将处于快速工业化和城市化的进程,对协议内容的选择只能是弱化各种风险,规避刚性约束,需要积极参与国际规制的制定,保障并强化中国的可持续发展。     

里约三公约交叉议题谈判进展及应对策略研究

气候变化、生物多样性、土地荒漠化的国际协作在全球范围内越来越受到重视。本文系统梳理了里约三公约交叉议题及其进展情况,并对其进行了综合评价。里约三公约交叉议题可归纳为减缓领域、适应领域、损失和损害以及战略计划和目标四大类,未来会日益强调基于生态系统方式实现协同增效。本文还提出了中国谈判及履约建议：(1)主动引领交叉议题谈判进程;(2)构建和完善国家协同履约机制;(3)结合南南合作、一带一路等开展区域合作。     

发展中国家气候灾害及应对能力调查分析

通过一个自主设计的调查问卷的抽样调查,对发展中国家气候灾害的主要状况及开展的应对工作进行了分析,以了解发展中国家的气候灾害及应对能力。调查结果表明,洪涝、干旱和海平面上升是受访发展中国家面临的3种最主要的气候灾害,具有发生频繁、影响范围广且造成损失大的特征。大多数接受调查的发展中国家尚未建立完备的灾害管理体系,加强对气候灾害的监测预警是其应对极端气候事件、降低灾害风险的首要任务之一。帮助其他发展中国家建立并完善监测预警系统应是中国应对气候变化南南合作的重要领域之一。     

Targeting areas for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) projects in Tanzania

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) has gained momentum as a climate mitigation strategy that can be implemented at multiple scales. Sub-nationally, REDD+ projects that aim to capture carbon funding are implemented throughout tropical countries. A spatial targeting approach for optimal REDD+ project landscape is demonstrated using Tanzania as an example. This study used GIS-based Multi-criteria Decision Analysis to identify potential areas for REDD+ projects development incorporating different combinations of criteria. The first approach, efficient targeting, focuses on areas with high forest carbon content, high deforestation risk and low opportunity cost. The second approach, co-benefits targeting, aims at areas with high biodiversity and high poverty rate on top of criteria in efficient targeting. The resulting suitability maps displays areas of high, medium and low suitability for future REDD+ projects development based on the targeting approaches. Locations of current REDD+ projects in Tanzania were also overlaid with suitability map to visually inspect how they match up. This approach allows decision-makers to prioritize preferences for various site-selection criteria and make informed decisions about REDD+ projects locations.     

Deforestation,biomass and carbon finance in Amazonia

Biomass dynamics in Amazonia are quantified and the value that carbon finance could deliver from slowing deforestation is assessed. Above-ground forest biomass in the Legal Amazon shrank from 90 Pg to 76 Pg between 1978 and 2004. An average decrease of 0.64 Pg (standard error 0.38 Pg) per year was estimated for primary and econdary vegetation. For an improved, spatially and temporally explicit estimation, a time series of remote-sensing results and a model of secondary forest area and age distribution was combined with a large-scale forest-growth model. The observed trend of biomass decline is continuous and defines a baseline that the avoidance of deforestation could be measured against. Based on scenario calculations, the emission reductions from slightly reduced deforestation rates could be valued in the range of €1 billion annually. Carbon finance for reducing emissions from deforestation (‘avoided deforestation’), which is being discussed as an additional mechanism under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, has the potential to alter the economic logic driving forest conversion.     

Creating incentives for avoiding further deforestation: the nested approach

Since 2005, Parties to the UNFCCC have been negotiating policy options for incentivizing reductions of (greenhouse gas) emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) in a future climate regime. Proposals on how to operationalize REDD range from market-based to pure fund-based approaches. Most of the current proposals suggest accounting for REDD at the national level. Accounting for emission reductions and implementing policy reform for curbing deforestation will take time and imply high levels of technical and institutional capacity. Therefore it is essential that developing countries receive sufficient support to implement national REDD programmes. To save time and ensure prompt action in reducing deforestation, a REDD approach is proposed that integrates project-level and subnational REDD schemes into national-level accounting. This ‘nested approach’ can achieve meaningful reductions in GHG emissions from improved forest governance and management, while allowing for an immediate and broad participation by developing countries, civil society and the private sector.     

Financing REDD in developing countries: a supply and demand analysis

Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) in developing countries has been at the centre of negotiations on a renewed international climate regime. Developing countries have made it clear that their ability to engage in REDD activities would depend on obtaining sufficient and stable funding. Two alternative REDD financing options are examined to find possible ways forward: financing through a future compliance market and financing through a non-offset fund. First, global demand for hypothetical REDD credits is estimated. The demand for REDD credits would be highest with a base year of 1990, using gross—net accounting. The key factors determining demand in this scenario are the emission reduction targets and the allowable cap. A proportion of emission reduction targets available for offsets lower than 15% would fail to generate a sufficient demand for REDD. Also examined is the option of financing REDD through a fund. Indirectly linking the replenishment of a REDD fund to the market is a promising mechanism, but its feasibility depends on political will. The example of overseas development assistance for global health indicates the conditions for possible REDD financing. The best financial approach for REDD would be a flexible REDD mechanism with two tracks: a market track serving as a mitigation option for developed countries, and a fund track serving as a mitigation option for developing countries.     

“一带一路”沿线国家气象服务的供需协调度分析

基于2011—2020年“一带一路”沿线国家气候风险、灾损情况、经济水平,以及市场环境等方面数据资料,从气象服务供需视角,构建气象服务供需协调度指标体系,采用熵值法和协调度耦合模型量化分析沿线国家气象服务的需求、供给及供需均衡水平。结果表明,灾情指标和人口密度指标能较好地表征需求和供给水平;南亚的印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉和东南亚的菲律宾等国家的气象服务需求相对较高;供给指数相较需求指数更加稳定;均衡指数在研究期内的波动范围变化不大,但是空间分布格局变化较大;沿线印度、新加坡和孟加拉三国的均衡性上升趋势最为显著。     

北海市气候资源的开发利用及防灾减灾对策

对北海市气候资源的开发利用及气候灾害防灾减灾对策进行分析,为北海市乃至广西的可持续性发展提供了科学依据.     

大气环境污染优化控制的实际问题

讨论了大气环境污染优化控制理论和应用中的几个实际问题以及可以采用的一些分析和解决实际问题的方法,包括系统化分析方法、数据库的设计与实现、实用空气质量模式、优化控制问题的数学描述和求解、污染物方程及其伴随方程的线形规划求解等,同时给出了在大气环境容量规划和总量控制研究中的实现步骤。