Impact of Ganges–Brahmaputra interannual discharge variations on Bay of Bengal salinity and temperature during 1992–1999 period

This study investigates the impact of monthly Ganges–Brahmaputra river discharge variations on Bay of Bengal salinity and temperature during the period 1992–1999. The Ganges–Brahmaputra river discharge is characterized by a well-defined seasonal cycle with strong interannual variations. The highest/lowest yearly peak discharge occurs in summer 1998/summer 1992, with 1998 value amounting to twice that of 1992. This river discharge is then used to force an ocean general circulation model. Our main result is that the impact of these rivers on the variability of Bay of Bengal sea surface salinity is strong in the northern part, with excess run-off forcing fresh anomalies, and vice versa. Most of the years, the influence of the interannual variability of river discharge on the Bay salinity does not extend south of ~10°N. This stands in contrast with the available observations and is probably linked to the relatively coarse resolution of our model. However, the extreme discharge anomaly of 1998 is exported through the southern boundary of the Bay and penetrates the south-eastern Arabian Sea a few months after the discharge peak. In response to the discharge anomalies, the model simulates significant mixed-layer temperature anomalies in the northern Bay of Bengal. This has the potential to influence the climate of the area. From our conclusions, it appears necessary to use a numerical model with higher resolution (both on the horizontal and vertical) to quantitatively investigate the upper Bay of Bengal salinity structure.     

Comparison of the Salinity Structure of the Chesapeake Bay,the Delaware Bay and Long Island Sound Using a Linearly Tapered Advection-Dispersion Model

Long records of monthly salinity observations along the axis of Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, and Long Island Sound are used to test a simple advection–dispersion model of the salt distribution in linearly tapered estuaries developed in a previous paper. We subdivide each estuary into three to five segments, each with linear taper allowing a distributed input of fresh water, and evaluate the dispersion in each segment. While Delaware Bay has weak dispersion and a classical sigmoidal salinity structure, Long Island Sound and Chesapeake Bay are more dispersive and have relatively small gradients in the central stretches. Long Island Sound is distinguished by having a net volume and salt flux out of its low-salinity end resulting in a smaller range of salinity and increasing axial gradients at its head rather than the usual asymptotic approach to zero salinity. Estimates of residence times based on model transport coefficients show that Long Island Sound has the most rapid response to fresh-water flux variations. It also has the largest amplitude cycle in river discharge fluctuation. In combination, these cause the large seasonal variation in the salinity structure relative to interannual variability in Long Island Sound as compared with Chesapeake Bay and Delaware Bay.     

Estuarine Ecosystem Response Captured Using a Synoptic Climatology

Estuarine and coastal ecosystems respond strongly to proximate climate forcing. In this study, we present a regional, synoptic climatology as an approach to classify weather patterns that generate interannual variability in coastal and estuarine ecosystems. Synoptic climatology is a method that classifies sea level pressure data into distinct patterns representing common weather features for a specified region. A synoptic climatology was developed for the eastern United States and used to quantify surface conditions affecting Chesapeake Bay during wet and dry years. In a synthesis analysis, several mechanisms were identified that explained the link between weather patterns and ecosystem structure, principal among them is the delivery of freshwater to the Bay during spring. Wet and dry years were characterized by shifts in biogeography of the Chesapeake Bay. The shifts resulted from habitat changes and trophic interactions and included the timing and magnitude of the spring phytoplankton bloom, the distribution/abundance of mesozooplankton and gelatinous zooplankton, and juvenile indices of fish. Synoptic climatology resolved regional weather variability at a spatial scale not strongly controlled by larger-scale climate indices and explained ecosystem responses in Chesapeake Bay.     

Partial Migration Across Populations of White Perch (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Morone americana</Emphasis>): A Flexible Life History Strategy in a Variable Estuarine Environment

We evaluated the prevalence of partial migration, coexisting resident and migratory life history types, within six white perch (Morone americana) populations in sub-estuaries (Upper Bay, and Potomac, Choptank, Nanticoke, James, and York Rivers) of the Chesapeake Bay. Otolith stable isotope (δ¹⁸O) values were used to resolve fish habitat use along an estuarine salinity gradient and define resident or migratory behavior. The majority of adults within Upper Bay and Potomac River populations were resident, whereas individuals from the Choptank, Nanticoke, James, and York Rivers were predominantly migratory. Beyond population differences, large interannual variability in life history types was observed, likely due to differences in estuarine conditions that influence growth rate of individuals (e.g., temperature, zooplankton density). Because we observed partial migration in all study populations, we suggest that this trait is characteristic of this species, permitting plastic responses to variation in the estuarine environment.     

Wave-forced resuspension of upper Chesapeake Bay muds

Moored instruments were used to make observations of near bottom currents, waves, temperature, salinity, and turbidity at shallow (3.5 m and 5.5 m depth) dredged sediment disposal sites in upper Chesapeake Bay during the winters of 1990 and 1991 to investigate time-varying characteristics of resuspension processes over extended periods. Resulting time series data show the variability of two components of the suspended sediment concentration field. Background suspended sediment concentrations varied inversely with salinity and in direct relation to Susquehanna River flow. Muddy bottom sediments were also resuspended locally by both tidal currents and wind-wave forcing, resulting in short-term increases and decreases in suspended concentration, with higher peak concentrations near the bottom. In both years, episodes of wave-forced resuspension dominated tidal resuspension on an individual event basis, exceeding most tidal resuspension peaks by a factor of 3 to 5. The winds that generated the waves responsible for the observed resuspension events were not optimal for wave generation, however. Application of a simple wind-wave model showed that much greater wave-forced resuspension than that observed might be generated under the proper conditions. The consolidated sediments investigated in 1990 were less susceptible to both tidal and wave-forced resuspension than the recently deposited sediments investigated in 1991. There was also some indication that wave-forced resuspension increased erodibility of the bottom sediments on a short-term basis. Wave-forced resuspension is implicated as an important part of sediment transport processes in much of Chesapeake Bay. Its role in deeper, narrower, and more tidally energetic estuaries is not as clear, and should be investigated on a case-by-case basis.     

Transient hydrodynamic and salinity simulations in the Chesapeake Bay network

A transient network model is applied to the Chesapeake Bay and its tributary estuaries. Calibration of the model is based on only three external parameters: a friction factor that is spatially described, and two global constants required to calibrate a dynamic dispersion relationship that depends on both the local salinity gradient and hydraulic conditions. The transient hydrodynamics and the transient salinity distribution of the Bay and its tributary estuaries are simulated for the period of one month and comparisons made between calculated and observed salinities.     

The response of the Gulf of Mexico to wind and heat flux forcing: What has been learned in recent years?

The Loop Current and its shed eddies dominate the circulation and dynamics of the Gulf of Mexico (GoM) basin. Those eddies are strongly energetic and are the cause of intense currents that may penetrate several hundred meters deep. However, there are regions in the GoM and periods of time in which the local atmospheric forcing plays an important role in its dynamics and thermodynamics. The circulation on the shelves, and particularly on the inner shelf, is mainly wind-driven with seasonality, changing direction during the year with periods of favorable upwelling/downwelling conditions. The wind-driven circulation is associated with the transport of waters with different temperature and salinity characteristics from one region to another. The interannual variability of the circulation on the shelves is linked to the atmospheric variability. Intraseasonal variability of the wind patterns considerably affects the likelihood and magnitude of upwelling and downwelling. The geometry of the GoM is such that large-scale winds may drive opposing upcoast/downcoast currents along different parts of the curving coast, resulting in convergence or divergence zones. The width of the shelves in the GoM is variable;while the West Florida Shelf, the Texas-Louisiana shelf and the Campeche Bank are more than 200 km wide, they are narrower near Veracruz and Tabasco. Another consequence of the GoM physiography and the wind forcing is the development of cross-shelf transports in the southern Bay of Campeche, the southern Texas shelf and southeast of the Mississippi river, which in turn vary during the year. During autumn-winter (from September to April), the GoM is affected by cold fronts coming from the northwest United States, which are associated with strong, dry, and cold winds that mix its waters and generate large sensible and latent heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere. These frontal passages also cool the GoM surface waters due to mixing with lower temperature subsurface waters. During summer, tropical cyclones crossing the GoM can dramatically affect circulation and coastal upwelling.     

Factors influencing spatial and annual variability in eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) meadows in Willapa Bay, Washington, and Coos Bay, Oregon, estuaries

Environmental factors that influence annual variability and spatial differences (within and between estuaries) in eelgrass meadows (Zostera marine L.) were examined within Willapa Bay, Washington, and Coos Bay, Oregon, over a period of 4 years (1998–2001). A suite of eelgrass metrics were recorded annually at field sites that spanned the estuarine gradient from the marine-dominated to mesohaline region of each estuary. Plant density (shoots m^?2) of eelgrass was positively correlated with summer estuarine salinity and inversely correlated with water temperature gradients in the estuaries. Eelgrass density, biomass, and the incidence of flowering plants all increased substantially in Willapa Bay, and less so in Coos Bay, over the duration of the study. Warmer winters and cooler summers associated with the transition from El Niño to La Niña ocean conditions during the study period corresponded with this increase in eelgrass abundance and flowering. Large-scale changes in climate and nearshore ocean conditions may exert a strong regional influence on eelgrass abundance that can vary annually by as much as 700% in Willapa Bay. Lower levels of annual variability observed in Coos Bay may be due to the stronger and more direct influence of the nearshore Pacific Ocean on the Coos Bay study sites. The results suggest profound effects of climate variation on the abundance and flowering of eelgrass in Pacific Northwest coastal estuaries.     

Potential Salinity and Temperature Futures for the Chesapeake Bay Using a Statistical Downscaling Spatial Disaggregation Framework

Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO₂ emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries.     

Estimation of net physical transport and hydraulic residence times for a coastal plain estuary using box models

A box model based on salinity distributions and freshwater inflow measurements was developed and used to estimate net non-tidal physical circulation and hydraulic residence times for Patuxent River estuary, Maryland, a tributary estuary of Chesapeake Bay. The box model relaxes the usual assumption that salinity is at steady-state, an important improvement over previous box model studies, yet it remains simple enough to have broad appeal. Average monthly 2-dimensional net non-tidal circulation and residence times for 1986–1995 are estimated and related to river flow and salt water inflow as estimated by the box model. An important result is that advective exchange at the estuary mouth was not correlated with Patuxent River flow, most likely due to effects of offshore salinity changes in Chesapeake Bay. The median residence time for freshwater entering at the head of the estuary was 68 d and decreased hyperbolically with increasing river flow to 30 d during high flow. Estimates of residence times for down-estuary points of origin showed that, from the head of the estuary to its mouth, control of flushing changed from primarily river flow to other factors regulating the intensity of gravitational circulation.     

Evolution of salinity field in the upper layers of the east central Arabian Sea and northern Bay of Bengal during summer monsoon experiments

The intra-seasonal variability observed in the salinity field of the upper layers at a few locations in the east central Arabian Sea and the northern Bay of Bengal during the summer monsoon seasons of 1977 and 1979 is documented with the aid of short time series (1–2 weeks) of salinity measurements made from USSR and Indian ships deployed during MONSOON-77 (1977) and MONEX-79 (1979) field experiments. In the Arabian Sea a typical subsurface maxima observed beneath the mixed layer base either disappeared or considerably weakened due to strong vertical mixing caused by the monsoonal forcing. In the northern Bay of Bengal the salinity variability in the top 30 m water column was rapid and appeared to be influenced by large amounts of fresh water from rain and probably from the major adjoining rivers. Some simple diagnostic calculations are presented to assess the relative importance of various processes which control the observed salinity variability.     

Long-Term Trends in Submersed Aquatic Vegetation (SAV) in Chesapeake Bay, USA, Related to Water Quality

Chesapeake Bay supports a diverse assemblage of marine and freshwater species of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) whose broad distributions are generally constrained by salinity. An annual aerial SAV monitoring program and a bi-monthly to monthly water quality monitoring program have been conducted throughout Chesapeake Bay since 1984. We performed an analysis of SAV abundance and up to 22 environmental variables potentially influencing SAV growth and abundance (1984–2006). Historically, SAV abundance has changed dramatically in Chesapeake Bay, and since 1984, when SAV abundance was at historic low levels, SAV has exhibited complex changes including long-term (decadal) increases and decreases, as well as some large, single-year changes. Chesapeake Bay SAV was grouped into three broad-scale community-types based on salinity regime, each with their own distinct group of species, and detailed analyses were conducted on these three community-types as well as on seven distinct case-study areas spanning the three salinity regimes. Different trends in SAV abundance were evident in the different salinity regimes. SAV abundance has (a) continually increased in the low-salinity region; (b) increased initially in the medium-salinity region, followed by fluctuating abundances; and (c) increased initially in the high-salinity region, followed by a subsequent decline. In all areas, consistent negative correlations between measures of SAV abundance and nitrogen loads or concentrations suggest that meadows are responsive to changes in inputs of nitrogen. For smaller case-study areas, different trends in SAV abundance were also noted including correlations to water clarity in high-salinity case-study areas, but nitrogen was highly correlated in all areas. Current maximum SAV coverage for almost all areas remain below restoration targets, indicating that SAV abundance and associated ecosystem services are currently limited by continued poor water quality, and specifically high nutrient concentrations, within Chesapeake Bay. The nutrient reductions noted in some tributaries, which were highly correlated to increases in SAV abundance, suggest management activities have already contributed to SAV increases in some areas, but the strong negative correlation throughout the Chesapeake Bay between nitrogen and SAV abundance also suggests that further nutrient reductions will be necessary for SAV to attain or exceed restoration targets throughout the bay.     

Spatial and temporal differences of Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) recruitment across major drainages (1966–2004) of the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) is well known for its commercial and ecological importance and has been historically declining in the Chesapeake Bay (Maryland), one of its principal nursery habitats along the eastern coast. Using data from the Striped Bass Seine Survey of the Maryland Department of Natural Resources (2003), we evaluated how the distribution of Atlantic menhaden has changed from 1966 to 2004 for 12 river drainages. We observed significant or marginally significant declines in 42% of the drainages, with drainages of the northern Bay showing the majority of those declines. Continued recruitment to several drainages of the Bay may partly explain why the adult spawning population is not declining. We determined if temporal changes in abundance were related to changes in salinity or water quality for five major drainages of the watershed. For one of these drainages, the Patuxent River, differences in productivity across sites largely explained differences in abundance. For the four remaining drainages, differences in recruitment could not be explained by productivity or salinity gradients. While reducing nitrogen loading and enhancing water clarity may improve Atlantic menhaden production, we suggest that the role of offshore processes on large-scale declines has been largely neglected and studies on larval ingression are necessary for further elucidation of spatial and temporal patterns of juvenile distribution in the Chesapeake Bay.     

Temperature-, Salinity-, and Size-Dependent Winter Mortality of Juvenile Blue Crabs (<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Callinectes sapidus</Emphasis>)

The blue crab, Callinectes sapidus, is an ecologically and economically valuable species in Chesapeake Bay. Field surveys and laboratory experiments indicate that blue crab mortality is significant during severe winters. We applied a temperature and salinity-dependent survival model to empirical temperature and salinity data to explore spatial and interannual patterns in overwintering mortality. Harmonic regression analysis and geostatistical techniques were used to create spatially explicit maps of estimated winter duration, average temperature, average salinity, and resulting crab survival probability for the winters of 1990–2004. Predicted survival was highest in the warmer, saline waters of the lower Bay and decreased with increasing latitude up bay. There was also significant interannual variation with survival being lowest after the severe winters of 1996 and 2003. We combine the survival probability maps with maps of blue crab abundance to show how winter mortality may reduce blue crab abundance prior to the start of the harvesting season.     

Spatial and Interannual Variability in Winter Mortality of the Blue Crab (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Callinectes sapidus</Emphasis>) in the Chesapeake Bay

The blue crab, Callinectes sapidus, is an ecologically and economically valuable species in Chesapeake Bay. Field surveys and laboratory experiments indicate that blue crab mortality is significant during severe winters. We applied a temperature and salinity-dependent survival model to empirical temperature and salinity data to explore spatial and interannual patterns in overwintering mortality. Harmonic regression analysis and geostatistical techniques were used to create spatially explicit maps of estimated winter duration, average temperature, average salinity, and resulting crab survival probability for the winters of 1990–2004. Predicted survival was highest in the warmer, saline waters of the lower Bay and decreased with increasing latitude up bay. There was also significant interannual variation with survival being lowest after the severe winters of 1996 and 2003. We combine the survival probability maps with maps of blue crab abundance to show how winter mortality may reduce blue crab abundance prior to the start of the harvesting season.     

Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Winter–Spring Oxygen Depletion in Chesapeake Bay Bottom Water

Although seasonal hypoxia is a well-studied phenomenon in many coastal systems, most previous studies have only focused on variability and controls on low-oxygen water masses during warm months when hypoxia is most extensive. Surprisingly, little attention has been given to investigations of what controls the development of hypoxic water in the months leading up to seasonal oxygen minima in temperate ecosystems. Thus, we investigated aspects of winter–spring oxygen depletion using a 25-year time series (1985–2009) by computing rates of water column O₂ depletion and the timing of hypoxia onset for bottom waters of Chesapeake Bay. On average, hypoxia (O₂ <62.5 μM) initiated in the northernmost region of the deep, central channel in early May and extended southward over ensuing months; however, the range of hypoxia onset dates spanned >50 days (April 6 to May 31 in the upper Bay). O₂ depletion rates were consistently highest in the upper Bay, and elevated Susquehanna River flow resulted in more rapid O₂ depletion and earlier hypoxia onset. Winter–spring chlorophyll a concentration in the bottom water was highly correlated with interannual variability in hypoxia onset dates and water column O₂ depletion rates in the upper and middle Bay, while stratification strength was a more significant driver in the timing of lower Bay hypoxia onset. Hypoxia started earlier in 2012 (April 6) than previously recorded, which may be related to unique climatic and biological conditions in the winter–spring of 2012, including the potential carryover of organic matter delivered to the system during a tropical storm in September 2011. In general, mid-to-late summer hypoxic volumes were not correlated to winter–spring O₂ depletion rates and onset, suggesting that the maintenance of summer hypoxia is controlled more by summer algal production and physical forcing than winter-spring processes. This study provides a novel synthesis of O₂ depletion rates and hypoxia onset dates for Chesapeake Bay, revealing controls on the phenology of hypoxia development in this estuary.     

Meteorological influences on sea level and water temperature in the lower Chesapeake Bay: 1992

The influence of atmospheric forcing on the flow and heat transports in the lower Chesapeake Bay and the adjacent coastal ocean were studied by comparing nontidal sea level and sea surface temperature variations in this region with meteorological data for 1992. Northeasterly and southwesterly winds caused the greatest changes in mean sea level (greater than 0.25 m) throughout the year. Northeastely winds caused a more rapid response than southwesterly winds, causing sea-level rises in less than 6 h. Barometric pressure changes typically contributed approximately 10% to extreme sea-level variations and were less influential than wind stress in most cases. Wind forcing was also responsible for summer events in which the horizontal water temperature gradient between two near-surface locations in the vicinity of the bay mouth vanished. These zero-gradient events corresponded to inflows and outflows at the bay's entrance caused by northeasterly and southwesterly winds, respectively. Wind-induced advection outside the lower Chesapeake Bay was additionally responsible for extreme heat flux variations. Heat gains and losses during the spring and fall occurred in pulsating events related to wind direction but were probably not connected to lower bay processes.     

Sedimentation cycles in a river-mouth tidal freshwater marsh

Tidal freshwater marshes are critical buffers that exist at the interface between watersheds and estuaries. Little is known about the physical dynamics of tidal freshwater marsh evolution. Over a 21-mo period, July 1995 to March 1997, measurements were made of biweekly sediment deposition at 23 locations in a 3.8-ha tidal freshwater marsh in the Bush River subestuary of the upper Chesapeake Bay. Biweekly accumulation showed high spatial and temporal variability, ranging from ?0.28 g cm^?2 to 1.15 g cm^?2. Spatial variability is accounted for by habitat differences including plant associations, elevation, and hydrology. Temporal variability is accounted for by interannual climate variability, the growth cycles of marsh plants, stream-marsh interactions, forest-marsh interactions, and animal activity.     

Reconsidering the physics of the Chesapeake Bay estuarine turbidity maximum

A series of cruises was carried out in the estuarine turbidity maximum (ETM) region of Chesapeake Bay in 1996 to examine physical and biological variability and dynamics. A large flood event in late January shifted the salinity structure of the upper Bay towards that of a salt wedge, but most of the massive sediment load delivered by the Susquehanna River appeared to bypass the ETM zone. In contrast, suspended sediments delivered during a flood event in late October were trapped very efficiently in the ETM. The difference in sediment trapping appeared to be due to increases in particle settling speed from January to October, suggesting that the fate of sediments delivered during large events may depend on the season in which they occur. The ETM roughly tracked the limit of salt (defined as the intersection of the 1 psu isohaline with the bottom) throughout the year, but it was often separated significantly from the limit of salt with the direction of separation unrelated to the phase of the tide. This was due to a lag of ETM sediment resuspension and transport behind rapid meteorologically induced or river flow induced motion of the salt limit. Examination of detailed time series of salt, suspended sediment, and velocity collected near the limit of salt, combined with other indications, led to the conclusion that the convergence of the estuarine circulation at the limit of salt is not the primary mechanism of particle trapping in the Chesapeake Bay ETM. This convergence and its associated salinity structure contribute to strong tidal asymmetries in sediment resuspension and transport that collect and maintain a resuspendable pool of rapidly settling particles near the salt limit. Without tidal resuspension and transport, the ETM would either not exist or be greatly weakened. In spite of this repeated resuspension, sedimentation is the ultimate fate of most terrigenous material delivered to the Chesapeake Bay ETM. Sedimentation rates in the ETM channel are at least an order of magnitude greater than on the adjacent shoals, probably due to focusing mechanisms that are poorly understood.     

Estimating the mean temperature and salinity of the Chesapeake Bay mouth

We used an extensive temperature and salinity data set to develop a statistically meaningful way of estimating mean temperature and salinity from discrete measurements in the mouth of Chesapeake Bay. From April 1992 to December 1998, the Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography completed 73 monthly hydrographic sections at high spring tide across the mouth of Chesapeake Bay. Time series of area weighted mean bay mouth temperature (MBMT) and salinity (MBMS) were calculated. We found that at any time the temperature at any location in the section correlated with the MBMT with a r² of 0.95 or better. A similar analysis for salinity showed that the best correlation was about 0.9 with many locations below 0.8. A correlation between MBMT and temperature at a nearby tide station indicated it was possible to estimate MBMT from the temperature at the tide station to ±0.74°C (90% confidence interval). Salinity was not measured at the tide station, but the correlation at a location in the section similar to the tide station indicates that MBMS can be estimated with an error of ±1.5 (90% confidence interval).