汶川5．12地震引起的库仑应力变化及其对周边地震活动的影响

汶川"5.12"8.0级特大地震,造成重大人员伤亡和财产损失。地震对周围地区断层活动性的影响和余震发展方向是人们关心的一个问题。根据汶川地震同震静态位移我们计算了周围地区一些断层的库仑应力变化,并据此评价了震后周围地区断层和地震的活动性。计算结果表明,龙门山断裂带东北段,包括北川、青川、宁强等地,为库仑应力增强区,有利于地震的发生。较大的余震分布与库仑应力增强区有较好的对应关系。鲜水河断裂带主要为库仑应力下降区,只有一小段为增高区,鲜水河断裂带总体上不利于地震活动。成都地区的西北部库仑应力增强,东南部应力下降。库仑应力变化的研究对大震后地震趋势的分析有重要意义。     

2011年3月24日缅甸7.2级地震对云南地区的影响研究

利用2011年1—6月云南地区的连续波形资料,采用背景噪声和波形互相关方法分别反演该地区的速度结构以及2011年3月24日缅甸7.2级地震前后60d的速度变化图像。同时,根据云南地区中小地震计算缅甸地震前后应变能释放响应比空间分布,并利用缅甸地震的震源参数,计算了缅甸地震对云南地区主要断裂产生的库仑破裂应力影响。结果显示:(1)禄劝至华坪一带、永定至泸水区域和通海至建水地区震后波速增加,同时该地区地震活动增强,相应断裂上库仑破裂应力增加,说明缅甸地震对这些区域具有加速构造活动的正影响;(2)小江断裂带以东马龙至宣威地区和南汀河断裂带以南临沧至景洪地区震后波速降低,地震活动减弱,断裂上库仑破裂应力降低,说明缅甸地震对该区域具有减缓构造活动的负影响。     

2011年3月24日缅甸7.2级地震对云南地区的影响研究

利用2011年1-6月云南地区的连续波形资料,采用背景噪声和波形互相关方法分别反演该地区的速度结构以及2011年3月24日缅甸7.2级地震前后60 d的速度变化图像。同时,根据云南地区中小地震计算缅甸地震前后应变能释放响应比空间分布,并利用缅甸地震的震源参数,计算了缅甸地震对云南地区主要断裂产生的库仑破裂应力影响。结果显示：(1) 禄劝至华坪一带、永定至泸水区域和通海至建水地区震后波速增加,同时该地区地震活动增强,相应断裂上库仑破裂应力增加,说明缅甸地震对这些区域具有加速构造活动的正影响;(2) 小江断裂带以东马龙至宣威地区和南汀河断裂带以南临沧至景洪地区震后波速降低,地震活动减弱,断裂上库仑破裂应力降低,说明缅甸地震对该区域具有减缓构造活动的负影响。     

注水诱发地震序列的震源机制变化特征: 以四川长宁序列为例

2006年4月以来, 四川长宁、兴文、珙县交界区域相继出现注水诱发地震活动, 至2013年4月30日共发生M_L4.0以上地震16次, 最大为2013年4月25日M_L5.2地震.通过采用体波谱振幅相关系数方法研究长宁注水诱发地震序列M_L3.0以上地震震源机制变化过程, 结果显示序列震源机制散乱; 利用CAP方法计算了序列中M_L4.0以上12次地震的震源机制解, 结果同样表明其机制紊乱.分析认为: 钻孔加压注水引起附近岩体的孔隙压力增大及先存断层面的摩擦系数减小, 这2种变化均导致库仑应力变化Δσ_f增大, 从而促进地震的发生.因此, 注水诱发地震活动期间, 研究区构造应力场的应力强度无明显增强, 对破裂方向也无明显的约束作用, 故地震序列震源机制发散.      

鄂尔多斯块体周缘地区近期地震活动性与汶川地震应力触发作用的关系

采用β统计对汶川地震前后鄂尔多斯块体周缘地区的地震活动率进行了空间扫描分析,并采用JiChen的震源破裂模型计算了汶川地震产生的库仑破裂应力变化,以研究鄂尔多斯块体周缘地区近期地震活动性与汶川地震应力触发作用的关系。结果发现,鄂尔多斯块体西南缘弧形断裂束的南东段与南缘渭河盆地的地震活动率在汶川地震后提高显著,其他区域的地震活动率没有明显提高,库仑破裂应力计算得到两个区域的应力变化范围分别为0.005～0.02 MPa和0.001～0.01 MPa,表明汶川地震有可能触发了这两个区域的地震活动。鄂尔多斯块体东缘的山西断陷带处于库仑破裂应力计算的应力增加区,应力变化范围为0～0.012 MPa,2009年3月以来发生的4次ML4.5～5.2级强有感至微破坏地震有可能被汶川地震所延迟触发。b值、地震能量释放率与空间相关距离SCL等地震活动性参数随时间变化扫描结果显示,该区域可能处于不断趋近高应力累积的状态,其未来大震有可能提前发生。西缘地区为应力减小区,其目前的地震活动处于正常水平状态。     

小江-则木河断裂带大地震序列的静应力触发作用

通过计算和研究1733-1850年期间发生在小江-则木河断裂带上的、由4次M≥7地震组成的大地震序列引起的库仑应力变化图像, 分析先发大地震破裂对后发大地震破裂的静态应力触发作用.结果表明, 在该序列中, 后发大地震破裂均发生在先发大地震破裂引起的库仑应力显著增加区内.其中, 1733年小江断裂带北段的73/₄级大地震破裂和1833年中段的8级大地震破裂均引起则木河断裂带较显著的库仑应力正值变化, 亦即1850年则木河断裂带发生的71/₂级大地震与前2次大地震破裂引起的应力触发作用有关; 1733年小江断裂带北段和中-南段的73/₄级和1789年2次7级大地震均对该断裂带中段产生了十分显著的库仑应力触发作用, 与此相关的是1833年8级大地震的发生.因此, 认为小江断裂带各段之间以及该断裂带与则木河断裂带之间存在显著的力学上的相互作用.      

汶川Ms8.0地震后龙门山断裂带地壳应力场及其构造意义

2008年5月12日在青藏高原东缘龙门山断裂带中段发生汶川8.0级特大地震。大震发生时释放应力并对震源区及外围构造应力场产生影响,受汶川地震断层破裂方式和强度空间差异性的影响,震后龙门山断裂带地壳应力场也应表现差异特征,至今鲜有针对该科学问题深入的分析和讨论。经过系统收集、梳理汶川地震后沿龙门山断裂带水压致裂地应力测量数据与2008年汶川地震中强余震序列震源机制解资料,对汶川地震后龙门山断裂带中上地壳构造应力场进行厘定,通过与震前构造应力场对比,深入探讨了汶川8.0级地震对龙门山断裂带地壳应力场的影响,进而对汶川震后应力调整过程及青藏高原东缘龙门山地区深部构造变形模式进行研究,研究结果表明:受汶川8.0级地震的影响,震后龙门山断裂带地壳构造应力场空间分布具有差异性,近地表至上地壳15 km深度范围,映秀—青川段最大主应力方向为北西西向、地应力状态为逆走滑型,青川东北部最大主应力方向偏转至北东东向、应力状态转变为走滑型;15~25km深度范围,龙门山断裂带最大主应力方向仍为北西—北西西向、应力状态以逆冲型为主。汶川8.0级地震后,龙门山断裂带中地壳北西西向逆冲挤压的构造应力特征进一步支持了青藏高原东缘龙门山地区东西两侧刚性块体碰撞挤压、逆冲推覆的动力学模式。     

两次于田M_S7.3地震间应力触发作用及2014年于田地震的发生对周缘断层的影响

基于青藏高原及邻区的三维粘弹性有限元模型,讨论2008年于田MS7.3级地震与2014年于田MS7.3级地震之间的关系,并研究2014年于田MS7.3级地震的发生造成周围断层的库仑破裂应力变化。初步结果表明:1)2008年于田MS7.3级地震在2014年于田MS7.3级地震震中滑动方向上产生的库仑破裂应力变化高于地震触发的阈值0.01 MPa,存在明显的触发作用。在视摩擦系数分别取0.4和0.6时,震源区同震库仑破裂应力变化为0.0167 MPa和0.0170 MPa;而考虑粘弹性松弛作用时产生的库仑应力增加量分别为0.0187 MPa和0.0194 MPa。结合断裂带构造应力年累计速率的结果,2008年于田地震的发生造成2014年于田地震提前21.4~24.9 a;2)在较短的时间尺度内,对于距离相近的两次地震之间,同震产生的应力变化远大于粘弹性松弛效应产生的变化;3)2014年于田MS7.3级地震的发生造成阿尔金断裂中北段、玛尼—玉树断裂中段、东昆仑断裂西段、柴达木北缘断裂东段、西秦岭北缘断裂西段等不同程度的加载效应,地震危险性有所增强。其中阿尔金断裂中段库仑应力增加最为明显,最大达2.8×10–3 MPa;玛尼—玉树断裂中段次之,应力增加量最大达5.6×10–4 MPa;东昆仑断裂西段应力增加量最大达4.75×10–4 MPa。而玛尼—玉树断裂西段库仑破裂应力最大卸载量达3.6×10–3 MPa。     

汶川8．0级地震序列时空分布研究

基于四川防震减灾信息网以及中国地震台网中心、中国地震信息网、国家地震科学数据共享中心提供的汶川8．0级地震目录资料,对2008年S月12日至2010年3月1日共1613次3．0级及以上余震的地震序列进行了时空分布分析。结果表明：汶川8．0级地震的余震大致可分为7个阶段,主震后18天应列为大地震强余震发生的警戒时间;地震序列的b值为0．751,印证了在类型相同的情况下主震震级越大b值越高的观点;地震序列的P值为1．117,与全球地震衰减速率相当;汶川地震的余震分布主要沿龙门山断裂走向北东向扩展,且具有明显分区性,自南向北分为南、中、北3区段,南区为地震起始破裂段,地震后期余震则主要分布在北区;震源深度分布在10～40km,集中在10～20km,表明龙门山断裂主要发生在中上地壳,且震源深度由南向北呈现逐渐变浅的趋势;震源深度扩展,南区呈明显脉冲状,中区主要是依次由15、30、25km深度向深、浅层同时扩展,北区余震深度分布呈“乙”字型,最后稳定在15km左右。     

2019年四川长宁MS6.0地震的地质构造成因——区域性构造节理贯通、破裂结果

根据野外地质调查结果并结合区域地质资料, 对2019年长宁MS6.0地震震区的地质背景和新构造运动特征进行分析后, 讨论了此次地震的发震构造并给出该地区孕震模型。基于区域地质与地震资料, 结合地表调查结果发现, 该区的新构造运动具有间歇性整体弱隆升、断裂晚第四纪活动不明显以及地震活动相对微弱等特征。此次强震的仪器震中位于长宁双河大背斜的西段, 该背斜经历了古老的NE向挤压应力场和顺时针旋转应力场的双重叠加构造作用。在大背斜的核部和翼部普遍发育了两组NW向节理和一组NE向节理, 并显示出区域性分布特征, 构成了具一定规模的构造破碎带(软弱带)。地震记录显示, 此次强震的地震序列呈现出明显的NW向线性条带, 震源机制解主要指示了NEE—NE向水平挤压应力作用的结果。结合地表构造特征可进一步推断, 长宁地震的震源破裂型式是以沿NW向破裂面发生以逆冲为主兼具左旋走滑分量的破裂过程为特征。综合分析认为, 2019年长宁MS6.0地震可能是双河背斜中的赋存超压环境叠加NE向古构造应力场和旋转应力场作用, 导致区域性NW向纵向节理发生构造强化、贯通, 并进一步破裂的结果。     

Observed correlations between aftershock spatial distribution and earthquake fault lengths

We observe the spatial distributions of the magnitude of aftershocks following the six earthquakes of focal depth shallower than 20 km with magnitude more than 5.0 from 1983 to 1987 in Japan. The upper limit of the aftershock magnitude is examined as a function of the distance from mainshock hypocentre. The observed spatial distributions of the upper limit are bimodal, with a tendency of the upper limit to decrease as the distance from mainshock hypocentre increases. Moreover, we observe the correlations between the aftershock spatial distribution and earthquake fault length. We focus on the largest aftershocks in each of two aftershock sequences constituting the bimodal distribution. The distances of the two largest aftershocks from the mainshock hypocentre are equal to the fault lengths of shallow earthquakes in Japan and to the maximum earthquake fault lengths.     

Seismogenic Tectonics and Dynamics of the 2011 Ms5.9 Yingjiang Earthquake in Yunnan,China

In the southern South–North Seismic Zone, China, seismic activity in the Yingjiang area of western Yunnan increased from December 2010, and eventually a destructive earthquake of Ms5.9 occurred near Yingjiang town on 10 March 2011. The focal mechanism and hypocenter location of the mainshock suggest that the Dayingjiang Fault was the site of the mainshock rupture. However, most of foreshocks and all aftershocks recorded by a portable seismic array located close to the mainshock occurred along the N–S-striking Sudian Fault, indicating that this fault had an important influence on these shocks. Coulomb stress calculations show that three strong(magnitude ≥5.0) earthquakes that occurred in the study region in 2008 increased the coulomb stress along the plane parallel to the Dayingjiang Fault. This supports the Dayingjiang Fault, and not the Sudian Fault, as the seismogenic fault of the 2011 Ms5.9 Yingjiang earthquake. The strong earthquakes in 2008 also increased the Coulomb stress at depths of ≤5 km along the entire Sudian Fault, and by doing so increased the shallow seismic activity along the fault. This explains why the foreshocks and aftershocks of the 2011 Yingjiang earthquake were located mostly on the Sudian Fault where it cuts the shallow crust. The earthquakes at the intersection of the Sudian and Dayingjiang faults are distributed mainly along a belt that dips to the southeast at ~40°, suggesting that the Dayingjiang Fault in the mainshock area also dips to the southeast at ~40°.     

The 10 June 2012 Fethiye Mw 6.0 aftershock sequence and its relation to the 24–25 April 1957 Ms 6.9–7.1 earthquakes in SW Anatolia,Turkey

The 10 June 2012 M_w 6.0 aftershock sequence in southwestern Anatolia is examined. Centroid moment tensors for 23 earthquakes with moment magnitudes (M_w) between 3.7 and 6.0 are determined by applying a waveform inversion method. The mainshock is a shallow focus strike-slip with reverse component event at a depth of 30 km. The seismic moment (M_o) of the mainshock is estimated as 1.28 × 10¹⁸ Nm and rupture duration of the Fethiye mainshock is 38 s. The focal mechanisms of the aftershocks are mainly strike-slip faulting with a reverse component. The geometry of the focal mechanisms reveals a strike-slip faulting regime with NE–SW trending direction of T-axis in the entire activated region. A stress tensor inversion of focal mechanism data is performed to obtain a more accurate picture of the Fethiye earthquake stress field. The stress tensor inversion results indicate a predominant strike-slip stress regime with a NW–SE oriented maximum horizontal compressive stress (S_H). According to variance of the stress tensor inversion, to first order, the Fethiye earthquake area is characterized by a homogeneous interplate stress field. The Coulomb stress change associated with the mainshock and the largest aftershock are also investigated to evaluate any significant enhancement of stresses along the Gulf of Fethiye and surrounding region. Positive lobes with stress more than 0.4 bars are obtained, indicating that these values are large enough to increase the Coulomb stress failure towards NNW–SSE and E–W directions.     

Seismogenesis of the uninterrupted occurrence of the aftershock activity in the 2001 Bhuj earthquake zone, Gujarat, India, during 2001�C2010

Seismogenesis of aftershocks occurring in the Kachchh seismic zone for more than last 10?years is investigated through modeling of fractal dimensions, b-value, seismic velocities, stress inversion, and Coulomb failure stresses, using aftershock data of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake. Three-dimensional mapping of b-values, fractal dimensions, and seismic velocities clearly delineate an area of high b-, D-, and Vp/Vs ratio values at 15?C35?km depth below the main rupture zone (MRZ) of the 2001 mainshock, which is attributed to higher material heterogeneities in the vicinity of the MRZ or deep fluid enrichment due to the release of aqueous fluid/volatile CO₂ from the eclogitisation of the olivine-rich lower crustal rocks. We notice that several aftershocks are occurred near the contacts between high (mafic brittle rocks) and low velocity regions while many of the aftershocks including the 2001 Bhuj mainshock are occurred in the zones of low velocity (low dVp, low dVs and large Vp/Vs) in the 15?C35?km depth range, which are inferred to be the fractured rock matrixes filled with aqueous fluid or volatiles containing CO₂. Further support for this model comes from the presence of hydrous eclogitic layer at sub-lithospheric depths (34?C42?km). The depth-wise stress inversions using the P- and T-axes data of the focal mechanisms reveal an increase in heterogeneity (i.e., misfit) with an almost N?CS ??₁ orientation up to 30?km depth. Then, the misfit decreases to a minimum value in the 30?C40?km depth range, where a 60^o rotation in the ??₁ orientation is also noticed that can be explained in terms of the fluid enrichment in that particular layer. The modeling of Coulomb failure stress changes (??CFS) considering three tectonic faults [i.e., NWF, GF, and Allah bund fault (ABF)] and the slip distribution of the 2001 mainshock on NWF could successfully explain the occurrences of moderate size events (during 2006?C2008) in terms of increase in positive ??CFS on GF and ABF. In a nutshell, we propose that the fluid-filled mafic intrusives are acting as stress accentuators below the Kachchh seismic zone, which generate crustal earthquakes while the uninterrupted occurrence of aftershocks is triggered by stress transfer and aqueous fluid or volatile CO₂ flow mechanisms. Further, our results on the 3-D crustal seismic velocity structure, focal mechanisms, and b-value mapping will form key inputs for understanding wave propagation and earthquake hazard-related risk associated with the Kachchh basin.     

Aftershock activity of Bhuj earthquake of january 26th, 2001

Following a large-sized Bhuj earthquake (M _s = 7.6) of January 26th, 2001, a small aperture 4-station temporary local network was deployed, in the epicentral area, for a period of about three weeks and resulted in the recording of more than 1800 aftershocks (-0.07 ≤M _L <5.0). Preliminary locations of epicenters of 297 aftershocks (2.0 ≤M _L <5.0) have brought out a dense cluster of aftershock activity, the center of which falls 20 km NW of Bhachau. Epicentral locations of after-shocks encompass a surface area of about 50 × 40 km² that seems to indicate the surface projection of the rupture area associated with the earthquake. The distribution of aftershock activity above magnitude 3, shows that aftershocks are nonuniformly distributed and are aligned in the north, northwest and northeast directions. The epicenter of the mainshock falls on the southern edge of the delineated zone of aftershock activity and the maximum clustering of activity occurs in close proximity of the mainshock. Well-constrained focal depths of 122 aftershocks show that 89% of the aftershocks occurred at depths ranging between 6 and 25 km and only 7% and 4% aftershocks occur at depths less than 5 and more than 25 km respectively. The Gutenberg-Richter (GR) relationship, logN = 4.52 - 0.89M_L, is fitted to the aftershock data (1.0<-M _L<5.0) and theb-value of 0.89 has been estimated for the aftershock activity.     

Source study and tectonic implications of the 1995 Ventimiglia (border of Italy and France) earthquake (ML=4.7)

We analyse the source process and the aftershock distribution of the April 21, 1995, Ventimiglia, M_L=4.7 earthquake using the records of permanent high dynamic broad-band seismic stations and a temporary network deployed on land and at sea few hours after the earthquake. This event occurred on the western Mediterranean coast, near the border between Italy and France, at a depth of 9 km, at a point where Alpine tectonic units and Late Oligocene extensional structure overlap and are currently undergoing compressional stress. The focal solutions of the mainshock and three aftershocks depict a dominant reverse faulting with an important strike-slip component, which underlines two nodal planes: a NW–SE-dipping north fault and a NE–SW-dipping south fault. We operate a careful re-location of the aftershocks using a master-event technique and data from the temporal network and obtain a predominant NW–SE alignment. Then, we analyse the rupture process using an empirical Green function approach. We find that the mainshock broke a 0.5 to 1 km fault length and that the rupture propagated during 0.1–0.2 s probably in a SE direction. Those two arguments, together with the recent fault trace that exists close to the epicentre, leads us to propose that this event expresses the reactivation of an old transverse NW–SE structure with a dextral movement. This study thus emphasizes the role of inherited, deep-rooted, transcurrent features in the tectonic reactivation of this passive margin. It also underlines the importance of combining short-period and broad-band seismology to better resolve and understand regional tectonic processes in areas of moderate seismic activity and complex geology.     

Fault system of the 2004 Mid Niigata Prefecture Earthquake and its aftershocks

Data recorded by a seismic network deployed the day after the 2004 Mid Niigata Prefecture Earthquake (M6.8) in central Japan are used to determine the major source faults responsible for the mainshock and major aftershocks. Using this high-resolution seismic data, three major source faults are identified: two parallel faults dipping steeply to the west located 5 km apart, and the other dipping eastward and oriented perpendicular to the west-dipping faults. The analysis also reveals that the lateral variation in seismic velocity observed at the surface extends to a depth of 15 km, encompassing the source area of the mainshock. This strong heterogeneity of the crust, related to the complex geological and tectonic evolution of the area, is considered to be responsible for the prominent aftershock activity following the 2004 Niigata event.     

Fault rupture and stress changes associated with the November 27, 2005 Qeshm Island (Iran) earthquake (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>W</Subscript> = 6.0)

The November 27, 2005 Qeshm Island earthquake (M_w 6.0) occurred along the Zagros Thrust and Fold Belt which accommodates about half of the deformation caused by the Arabian and Eurasian Plates convergence. As typical for the belt, the earthquake was associated with buried reverse faulting and produced no surface rupture. Here, teleseismic broadband P velocity waveforms of the earthquake are inverted to obtain coseismic finite-fault slip distribution of the earthquake. It is obtained that rupture was controlled by failure of a single asperity with largest displacement of approximately 0.6 m, which occurred at a depth of 9 km. The slip model indicated radial rupture propagation from the hypocentre and confirmed blind reverse faulting within deeper part (below the depth of 6 km) of the sedimentary cover above the Hormuz Salt, lying between the cover and the basement, releasing a seismic moment of about 1.3?×?10¹⁸ Nm (M_W?=?6.0). The results also confirm that the Hormuz Salt behaves as a barrier for rupture propagation to the basement below and occurrence of the aftershock activity downdip from the rupture within the Hormuz Salt. Calculated Coulomb stress variations caused by the coseismic rupture indicates stress coupling between the 2005 Qeshm Island earthquake and both the largest aftershock several hours later and the 2008 Qeshm Island earthquake (M_W?=?5.9). The stress calculations further indicated stress load at the depth range (15–20 km) of the well-located aftershocks, corresponding to depths of the Hormuz Salt and top of the basement and providing plausible explanation for occurrence of the aftershocks within those layers.     

The effect of static Coulomb stress changes on the earthquake interaction in South-Central Apennines (Italy)

We have computed static stress changes associated to several earthquakes occurred in the Apennine chain, in Italy. Stress associated with fault slip has been computed by the Okada (1992) formulation. Static Coulomb stress changes associated to three subevents forming the Irpinia, 1980, Ms=6.9 main shock indicate that such subevents have been consecutively triggered, each one by stress changes produced by previous ones. Furthermore, aftershocks of this complex faulting event are well correlated with zones of maximum increase of Coulomb stress. The interplay of regional stress and of local stress changes due to the mainshock produces an aftershock distribution considerably wide and a large variability of focal mechanisms. Variability of focal mechanism is consistent with a low level of background regional stress (less than 2 Mpa). The analysis of two further seismic sequence in the central Apennine, occurred on 1979 close to Norcia town (M_L=5.9) and on 1984 in National Park of Abruzzo (M_L=5.5), also show a clear correlation of aftershock occurrence with positive Coulomb stress changes generated by mainshocks. The static stress change due to the mainshock of 1984, in Abruzzo region, is likely to have triggered, 4 days after, a further mainshock (M_L=5.1) on the northern edge prolongation of the main fault, where the Coulomb stress change is maximum.Such evidences indicate a strong correlation among earthquakes in the Apennine chain, trough static stress changes, at several time and space scales. Modelling of such effects is useful both for improving our knowledge of the earthquake dynamics and for a better evaluation of seismic hazard in Italy.     

Static stress changes induced by the 1924 Pasinler (M = 6.8) and 1983 Horasan-Narman (M = 6.8) earthquakes, Northeastern Turkey

The 1924 Pasinler & 1983 Horasan-Narman earthquakes which struck the Erzurum region occurred on the NE–SW-trending Horasan fault zone about 60 km east of Erzurum basin. The inversion of teleseismic seismograms, the aftershock pattern and the surface faulting of the 30 October 1983 ( M _s = 6.8) Horasan-Narman earthquake indicate that it had dominantly left-lateral motion. One moderately sized aftershock occurred 8 h after the main event and two others a year later on the NE extension of the fault zone. The aftershock distribution dominantly overlapped with the Horasan fault zone, and the aftershocks also migrated from south-west to north-east within the year following the mainshock. The results obtained from modelling of static stress changes caused by the 1983 earthquake are consistent with the spatial distribution of aftershocks. Macroseismic observations of the 1924 earthquake ( M _s = 6.8) indicated that this event occurred on the SW extension of the Horasan fault zone. Static stress modelling of the 1924 earthquake, by using the same input parameters of the 1983 event, has shown that its occurrence increased the stress in the region of the 1983 rupture zone. The static stress changes caused both by the 1924 and the 1983 earthquakes has increased the failure stress at the NE and SW extensions of the Horasan fault zone and in Narman area. Furthermore, the stress has decreased in the vicinity of the Erzurum fault zone, east of the city of Erzurum, the largest city in eastern Turkey, and in the populated Sarikamis area. This might delay the occurrence of a future probable damaging earthquake in these areas.