A Nonlinear Model of Level Variations in the Caspian Sea

A new thermophysical mechanism of the Caspian Sea level variations is proposed. The mechanism incorporates the effect exerted on the dynamics of the water budget of the Caspian Sea by the nonlinear dependence of the evaporation rate on the moistening of the basin.     

Long-Term Water Level Variations in the Eastern Sea of Azov and in the Mouth Reach of the Don River

Studies of long-term water level variations at marine hydrometeorological stations in the eastern Sea of Azov established a rise in the sea level which accelerated in the past 40 years. Allowance for the tectonic component permitted assessing the average rate of eustatic rise in the level. Oppositely directed long-term level variations were established in the mouth area of the Don River. Water level was found to rise at the downstream gages because of the backwater effect caused by the Sea of Azov level rise and delta deposits subsidence and to drop at the upstream gages mainly because of bed erosion owing to a reduction in sediment runoff after the construction of the Tsimlyanskoe Reservoir.     

The Sources of Uncertainty in Forecasting Caspian Sea Level and Estimating the Inundation Risk of Coastal Areas

Stochastic variations in the climate and hydrological regime, both natural and anthropogenic, are the main cause of uncertainty in long-term hydrological forecasts and hence increase the estimated risk of economic activity in the coastal zone of internal seas. Some sources of uncertainty, which appear during the hydrological analysis, are considered with the purpose to assess this risk. Digital relief models were used to determine the morphological characteristics (as functions of the sea level) and assess their contribution to variations in the level regime. To take into account the sample uncertainty in the parameter estimates of stochastic models of the “impellent” processes, it is proposed to use the existing methodology of probabilistic-deterministic prediction of water level variations in a closed water body in combination with the Bayesian approach.     

The Structure of Currents in the Western Middle Caspian Sea: Present-Day Studies

Data on the dynamics of bottom currents along the western coast of the Middle Caspian are given. The contributions of the mean kinetic energy of currents and the energy of perturbation to the total energy of currents are shown at different space and time scales of variations and for different seasons of the year. The results of studies are based on experimental data collected by CTD sounding of water mass, measuring currents with the use of Potok-M instruments, ADCP Doppler acoustic current meters in the regime of sounding and towing, as well as stationary measurements at submerged buoy stations.     

The Role of Microorganisms in the Transformation of Biogenic Substances in the Caspian Sea Ecosystem: An Assessment Based on Mathematical Modeling

A hydroecological model is used to study the transformations of biogenic-element (N, P, C, and Si) compounds in different parts of the Caspian Sea. The existing notions of the biotransformation processes of these compounds in the marine environment are formalized. The state of the marine environment is characterized based on calculated annual dynamics of biogenic element concentrations, their relationships, and internal fluxes. Relationships between the concentrations of N and P mineral components are used to establish distinctions between different parts of the sea in the conditions of primary production limited by biogenic elements, as well as the development conditions of aquatic lifeforms (nutrient consumption, release of metabolic products, and detritus formation).     

Natural Tritium as an Indicator of Changes in the Vertical Structure of Caspian Sea Water Mass with Sea Level Variations

Analysis of changes in the vertical distribution of tritium in the Caspian Sea water mass in 1994–1996 led to a conclusion that the sea level fall that started in 1996 was accompanied by a rearrangement of the water mass steady hydrological structure characteristic of the high sea-level stand.__________Translated from Vodnye Resursy, Vol. 32, No. 4, 2005, pp. 406–409.Original Russian Text Copyright © 2005 by Brezgunov, Ferronskii.     

Geographical and Ecological Characteristics of the Caspian Sea and Modern Tendencies in the Evolution of Its Ecosystem

The Caspian Sea is characterized in the geographic and ecological aspects, and the state of its ecosystem is estimated. The natural and anthropogenic processes that control the formation of the environmental conditions in the Caspian Sea and the distribution of principal commercial hydrobionts and their food items are analyzed. Data on modern tendencies in changes in the abiotic and biotic parameters of the ecosystem, their causes and mechanisms are summarized. Prospects of further changes related to the development of shelf fields of petroleum hydrocarbons are assessed.     

Probabilistic Regularities in Setup Variations in the Level of a Large Inland Water Body: Case Study of the Caspian Sea

The results of probabilistic analysis of data on setup level variations collected during long-term observations at all gages along the Caspian Sea coast are discussed. A procedure for evaluating low-probability sea level extremes is proposed. Estimates are given for the probabilities of outstanding setups in the Caspian Sea and the Sea of Azov.     

长江口海域新生代地层与断裂活动性初探

长江口海域通过浅层人工地震勘察查明，新生代地层可分为5个地震层。分别为第四系、上新统、中新统上段、中新统下段及始新统。第三纪地层自东北向西南依次超覆、减薄尖灭，上部被第四纪地层不整合覆盖。沉积基底主要由晚侏罗世火山岩系及燕山晚期酸性小岩体构成，未发现早第三纪及晚白垩世断陷盆地。断裂构造很发育，按展布方向大体可归为北东、北西及近东西向3组，皆为正断层。前两者数量多、延伸长、断距大，与同区的航磁异常构架吻合。北东向断裂分段明显，西南段为第四纪断裂，中段为晚第三纪断裂，东北段为早第三纪断裂；而北西向断裂分段不很清晰。两者的垂直位移速率平均在0．015mm/a。本文对该海域有关的几个地质问题进行了讨论。     

Preliminary Study on Cenozoic Group and Fault Activity in the Sea Area Near the Yangtze River Mouth

By shallow seismic prospecting, the Cenozoic Group in the sea area near the Yangtze Rver Mouth can be divided into five seismic sequences. They correspond to the Quaternary,Pliocene, Upper Miocene, Lower Miocene and Eocene respectively. The Quaternary System covers all the detecting area. The Tertiary System overlaps and thins out from NE to SW. The sedimentary basement mainly consists of volcanic rock (J3) and acidic rock (r35). Paleogene or Late Cretaceous basins are not found there. The faults that have been detected are all normal faults. They can be divided into three groups (NE, NW, near EW) by their trend. The NE and NW-trending faults are predominant, and agree with aeromagnetic anomaly. Their length and displacement are larger than that of the EW-trending faults. The activity of the NEtrending faults is different in different segments. The SW segment is a Quaternary fault, the middle segment is a Neogene fault, The NE is Paleogene. But the segment of the NW-trending fault is not obvious. The average vertical displacement rate is about 0.015mm/a.     

Level Variations in the Caspian Sea under Different Climate Conditions by the Data of Simulation under CMIP6 Project

Water Resources - Water balance components for the territory of the Volga basin and Caspian Sea water area have been analyzed using the results of climatic simulation under CMIP6 Project for...     

Statistical Estimates of the Dependence of the Caspian Sea Level and the Volga Runoff on the Amount of Precipitation onto the Volga Watershed

Correlation between the Volga runoff, the Caspian Sea level increments (CSL), and the amount of precipitation is considered. The variables involved are averaged over seasons, periods, and the year. Variations in the obtained correlations within the 20th century are analyzed. A method is proposed for determining the optimal time interval, within which precipitation is to be taken into account in predicting the Volga runoff and CSL. Seasonal anomalies in the precipitation and annual Volga runoff are analyzed for low-water and high-water periods. Linear trends of seasonal sums of precipitation for the period from 1891 to 1998 and in individual parts of this period are evaluated.     

内蒙古东部扎兰屯地区的b值时空变化特征

内蒙古东部的扎兰屯地区位于大兴安岭地震带北段,区域地质构造复杂,历史及现代中强地震较为活跃。本文以该地区地震活动作为研究对象,在区域地震序列完整性分析基础上,用最小二乘法进行b值时间扫描计算,用最大似然法进行b值空间扫描计算。时间扫描中的b值为每个扫描窗口内研究区的平均b值,因此其变化幅度不大,b值变化范围基本维系在0.78～1.13,误差范围为0.04～0.065。空间扫描结果显示,扎兰屯地区b值空间分布范围基本维系在0.4～1.8,误差范围为0.045～0.085;低b值区域为阿伦河断裂中北段,b值大致分布在0.5～0.7,表明该区域地壳介质处于高水平应力积累状态,可能是未来发生中强以上地震的危险区域。     

Investigation of Water-Exchange Processes in the Caspian Sea on the Basis of Isotopic and Oceanographic Data

Results of the sampling for temperature, salinity, and isotopic composition of water masses that was performed in the Caspian Sea at deepwater stations along a meridional profile during the international expeditions of 1994–1996 are presented. The water-exchange processes in this basin are analyzed on the basis of the distributions of salinity and isotopes in space and time.     

Numerical simulation of waves in the Caspian Sea: calibration and verification of the observation-based source terms

Ocean Dynamics - Third-generation models employ a host of parameterization schemes to consider the input wind forcing and the wave energy dissipation under different physical settings and...     

Hydrodynamic basis of formation of large-scale water circulation in the Caspian Sea: 2. Numerical calculations

The contributions of wind, water baroclinicity, and evaporation to the formation of water circulation over the depressions of the Middle and Southern Caspian are calculated numerically. The results show that all three factors—the wind, baroclinicity, and evaporation—are involved in the formation and maintenance of cyclonic water circulation over the depressions. The hydrodynamic basis of the formation of upwelling at the western and eastern coasts of the Middle Caspian are analyzed. A hypothesis is proposed regarding a more complicated, binuclear structure of the upwelling at the eastern shore of the Middle Caspian, and a theoretical substantiation of this hypothesis is given. From theoretical considerations, it is derived that the upwelling at the western shore of the Middle Caspian is of wind nature, but is governed by the integral effect of the spatial distribution of wind, rather than local alongshore wind.