Rapid scale-up of negative emissions technologies: social barriers and social implications

We describe a new approach that allows for systematic causal attribution of weather and climate-related events, in near-real time. The method is designed so as to facilitate its implementation at meteorological centers by relying on data and methods that are routinely available when numerically forecasting the weather. We thus show that causal attribution can be obtained as a by-product of data assimilation procedures run on a daily basis to update numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with new atmospheric observations; hence, the proposed methodology can take advantage of the powerful computational and observational capacity of weather forecasting centers. We explain the theoretical rationale of this approach and sketch the most prominent features of a “data assimilation–based detection and attribution” (DADA) procedure. The proposal is illustrated in the context of the classical three-variable Lorenz model with additional forcing. The paper concludes by raising several theoretical and practical questions that need to be addressed to make the proposal operational within NWP centers.     

Zero is the only acceptable leakage rate for geologically stored CO 2 : an editorial comment

Leakage is one of the main concerns of all parties involved with the development of Carbon Capture and Storage. From an economic point of view, van der Zwaan and Gerlagh (2009) suggest that CCS remains a valuable option even with CO₂ leakage rate as high as of a few % per year. But what is valuable is, ultimately, determined by social preferences and parameters that are beyond economic modeling. Examining the point of view of four stakeholder groups: industry, policy-makers, environmental NGOs and the general public, we conclude that there is a social agreement today: zero is the only acceptable carbon leakage rate.     

Modeling meets science and technology: an introduction to a special issue on negative emissions

This article introduces this special journal issue on climate change impacts on Sierra Nevada water resources and provides a critical summary of major findings and questions that remain open, representing future research opportunities. Some of these questions are long standing, while others emerge from the new research reported in the eight research papers in this special issue. Six of the papers study Eastern Sierra watersheds, which have been under-represented in the recent literature. One of those papers presents hydrologic projections for Owens Valley, benefiting from multi-decadal streamflow records made available by the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power for hydrologic model calibration. Taken together, the eight research papers present an image of localized climatic and hydrologic specificity that allows few region-wide conclusions. A source of uncertainty across these studies concerns the inability of the (statistically downscaled) global climate model results that were used to adequately project future changes in key processes including (among others) the precipitation distribution with altitude. Greater availability of regional climate model results in the future will provide research opportunities to project altitudinal shifts in snowfall and rainfall, with important implications to snowmelt timing, streamflow temperatures, and the Eastern Sierra’s precipitation-shadow effect.     

Governing through disorder: Neoliberal environmental governance and social theory

Recent years have witnessed the spread of an array of market-inspired environmental governance approaches, often associated with neoliberal ideas, programs and policies. Drawing on the governmentality framework and focusing on the examples of biotechnology patenting and the financialisation of climate and weather, the article argues that the conceptual underpinnings of these approaches lie in a novel understanding of the ontological quality of the biophysical world. The latter is conceived as fully plastic, controllable, open to an ever-expanding human agency. Neoliberal governance operates through, rather than despite, disorder - that is, through contingency, uncertainty, instability. In the public realm this idea constitutes a sort of shared horizon of meaning; but environmental social theory has a difficult time accounting for it. By reviewing three major perspectives, namely ecological modernization, neo-Marxism and poststructuralism, it is shown that behind contradictions and reticence in their assessments of neoliberal governance lie difficulties in making sense of the latter's theoretical core. This sets a challenging research program for social theory.     

Climatic change, refugia, and biodiversity: where do we go from here? An editorial comment

Climate change in the coming century will affect biodiversity at many biological levels, ranging from ecosystems to genes. Forecasting the effects of these changes, especially in the context of which species will be restricted to refugia and/or prone to extinction, is taking on increasing importance. Enhanced integration of phylogeography with phylochronology, paleontological and geological data, and climate science (especially taking into account scales of climate change other than orbitally-induced glacial–interglacial cycles) is needed to more fully appreciate the genetic effects of past climate changes, and to help predict future fates of species.     

Potential for forest carbon plantings to offset greenhouse emissions in Australia: economics and constraints to implementation

The theoretical potential for carbon forests to off-set greenhouse gas emissions may be high but the achievable rate is influenced by a range of economic and social factors. Economic returns (net present value, NPV) were calculated spatially across the cleared land area in Australia for ‘environmental carbon plantings’. A total of 105 scenarios were run by varying discount rate, carbon price, rate of carbon sequestration and costs for plantation establishment licenses for water interception. The area for which NPV was positive ranged from zero ha for tightly constrained scenarios to almost the whole of the cleared land (104 M ha) for lower discount rate and highest carbon price. For the most plausible assumptions for cost of establishment and commercial discount rate, no areas were identified as profitable until a carbon price of AUD$40 t CO₂ ^?1 was reached. The many practical constraints to plantation establishment mean that it will likely take decades to have significant impact on emission reductions. Every 1 M ha of carbon forests established would offset about 1.4 % of Australia’s year 2000 emissions (or 7.4 Mt CO₂ year^?1) when an average rate of sequestration per ha was reached. All studies that predict large areas of potentially profitable land for carbon forestry need to be tempered by the realities that constrain land use change. In Australia and globally, carbon plantings can be a useful activity to help mitigate emissions and restore landscapes but it should be viewed as a long-term project in which co-benefits such as biodiversity enhancement can be realised.     

The role of the university in interdisciplinary global change research: Structural constraints and the potential for change. An editorial

Adapted from Global Change: Newsletter of. the Project for the Integrated Study of Global Change, University of Michigan Vol. 1, No. 4, November/December 1991, pp. 6–7.     

The politics and policy of carbon capture and storage: Framing an emergent technology

Over the past decade carbon capture and storage (CCS) has attracted increasing international attention as a climate change mitigation option and moved into the center of climate policy debates and negotiations. This special issue of Global Environmental Change brings together leading scholars to analyze the politics, policy and regulation of CCS in cross-country comparisons as well as in a global context. The aim is to contribute on two fronts: first, by applying concepts, theories and methodologies from the social and policy sciences, to elucidate how societies are engaging with CCS as a mitigation option; and secondly, to point toward a future research agenda which, while exploring basic aspects of technology development as situated in a social context, would also be aligned with the needs of the climate and environmental policy community. The contributions address at least one of three inter-related research areas; CCS and the emergence of long-term climate and energy strategies; regulation, policy instruments and public acceptance; and international politics and CCS in developing countries.     

Modelling long-term HFC emissions from India's residential air-conditioning sector: exploring implications of alternative refrigerants,best practices,and a sustainable lifestyle within an integrated assessment modelling framework

India's growing role in the global climate debate makes it imperative to analyse emission reduction policies and strategies across a range of GHGs, especially for under-researched non-CO₂ gases. Hydrofluorocarbons' (HFCs) usage in cooling equipment and subsequent emissions are expected to increase dramatically in India with the phase-out of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) as coolants in air-conditioning equipment. We focus on the residential air-conditioning sector in India and analyse a suite of HFC and alternative coolant gas scenarios for understanding the implications for GHG emissions from this sector within an integrated assessment modelling framework. We find that, if unabated, HFC410A emissions will contribute to 36% of the total global warming impact from the residential air-conditioner sector in India in 2050, irrespective of the future economic growth trajectory, and the remaining 64% is from energy to power residential air-conditioners. A move towards more efficient, low global warming potential (GWP) alternative refrigerants will significantly reduce the cumulative global warming footprint of this sector by 37% during the period 2010–2050, due to gains both from energy efficiency as well as low GWP alternatives. Best practices for reducing direct emissions are important, but only of limited utility, and if a sustainable lifestyle is adopted by consumers with lower floorspace, low GWP refrigerants, and higher building envelope efficiencies, cumulative emissions during 2010–2050 can be reduced by 46% compared to the Reference scenario.

Policy relevance

Our analysis has important implications for Indian climate policy. We highlight that the Indian government's amendment proposal to the Montreal Protocol is a strong signal to the Indian market that the transition away from high GWP refrigerants towards low/zero GWP alternatives will happen sooner or later. The Bureau of Energy Efficiency should extend building energy conservation code policy to residential buildings immediately, and the government should mandate it. Government authorities should set guidelines and mandate reporting of data related to air-conditioner coolant recharge frequency and recovery of scrapped air-conditioner units. For contentious issues like flammability where there is no consensus within the industry, the government needs to undertake an independent technical assessment that can provide unbiased and reliable information to the market.     

金华市不同区域负氧离子浓度特征与气象环境因素相关分析

利用2019—2021年金华市空气负氧离子浓度和气象环境资料，研究不同区域（平原城区、平原公园、水边景区、山林景区）负氧离子浓度时空分布特征，分析人类活动最多的城区负氧离子浓度与气象环境因素不同时间尺度的相关性，以及不同天空状况的差异。结果表明：负氧离子浓度呈现平原低、山区高的分布特征，植被茂密、动态水流可增加负氧离子浓度和提高浓度等级。山林景区日出和日落前后负氧离子浓度较高，水边景区凌晨和午后出现高值，平原地区则在下午达到高峰。不同区域四季日变化趋势整体较一致，但不同季节负氧离子浓度峰值大小、日较差和出现峰值时刻存在差异。四季不同区域负氧离子浓度有所差异，主要表现为6—9月高，其中尤以8月山林景区为最。负氧离子浓度与气象环境因素的相关性在不同时间尺度上差异较大：时尺度上与气温、风速、雨量和O3呈显著正相关，而与PM2.5呈显著负相关。四季看，负氧离子浓度春季与风速相关性最高，夏季为气温，秋季为O3，冬季为PM2.5。日尺度上则与相对湿度、风速、雨量呈显著正相关，与PM2.5和O3呈显著负相关，且雨天负氧离子浓度明显高于其他天空状况，差异在冬季达最大。     

Changing places: The role of sense of place in perceptions of social,environmental and overdevelopment risks

An increasing focus on place based planning and adaptation processes brings to the fore the importance of understanding the situated experience of social and environmental change. Populations do not respond uniformly to environmental and social change, and given that consensus is needed to successfully achieve inclusive adaptation it is important to understand how and why people are more sensitive to certain changes and risks over others. Using a sense of place lens, we investigate how an individual’s relationship with their property and their town shapes their sensitivity to a range of risks. To investigate this, we conducted a survey in towns in South Africa, UK and France (n = 707) to examine the relationship between multiple dimensions of sense of place with place-based risks. We find that relationship with place matters differently for perception of social, environmental and overdevelopment risk. In particular, we find that feeling safe in place correlates with reduced perceptions of social risks but increases the likelihood of perceiving environmental risk. The role of place in risk perception is stronger at the property scale than the town scale, and it is only at the property scale that place meaning is related to risk perception. Our findings contribute to theory on the subjective experience of place-based risks and has implications for how social and environmental change can be communicated and managed.     

N2O emissions of India: an assessment of temporal, regional and sector trends

This paper estimates the national level trend of India’s N₂O emissions from 1985–2005 and detailed sub-regional (594 districts) level and sector emissions for the year 2005. N₂O emissions are estimated using the latest methodologies (IPCC 2006), disaggregated activity data and indigenized emission factors. The estimates show that India’s N₂O emissions have grown from 144?Gg in 1985 to 267?Gg in 2005 exhibiting a compounded annual growth rate of 3.1%, which has been gradually declining from 4.7% over 1985–1990 to 2.4% over 2000–2005. N-fertilizer application contributed most to N₂O emissions, a 49% share in 2005 compared to 40% in 1985. Sub-regional (district-level) distribution of N₂O emissions showed rising mean and spread over the years, with average emissions per districts increasing from 305?ton N₂O per year in 1990 to 450?tons in 2005. The main reason being increased use of N-fertilizer. However crop selection plays an important role in N₂O emissions and there are crops providing high economic returns but low N-fertilizer requirements. Agriculture sector could contribute considerably to GDP even with very low N₂O emissions. Indian agriculture practices vary widely in input applications and crop yields across states. The gradual transition from traditional to modern agriculture over past two decades has enhanced the intensity of inputs like N-fertilizer. A simple correlation based on 1985–2005 trends shows that, ceteris paribus, a 10% increase in total crop production is accompanied with a 12.4% increase in N-fertilizer application and a 9.7% increase in total N₂O emissions from India.     

Social dominance as an ideological barrier to environmental engagement: Qualitative and quantitative insights

Climate change denial is motivated in part by ideology, with research showing that a greater tolerance of social inequality is consistently linked to lower pro-environmentalism. We report findings from two mixed-methods studies. In Study One, we provide insight into how individuals with varying levels of social dominance orientation discuss environmental issues by analyzing 59 interviews. These analyses revealed that many individuals were concerned about the causes, consequences, and potential solutions to climate change; however, many were also armed with justifications excusing their and others’ inaction on the problem. To establish further how the ideas shared in the interviews related to social dominance, we reworked the ideas into statements for survey-based research in Study Two. Social dominance orientation and its composite dimensions related to most interview-based statements, with those scoring higher on dominance attitudes more opposed to top-down action on climate change, and those more tolerant of inequality more opposed to individual action. We discuss implications for climate change communication.     

Carbon capture and storage: combining economic analysis with expert elicitations to inform climate policy

The relationship between R&D investments and technical change is inherently uncertain. In this paper we combine economics and decision analysis to incorporate the uncertainty of technical change into climate change policy analysis. We present the results of an expert elicitation on the prospects for technical change in carbon capture and storage. We find a significant amount of disagreement between experts, even over the most mature technology; and this disagreement is most pronounced in regards to cost estimates. We then use the results of the expert elicitations as inputs to the MiniCAM integrated assessment model, to derive probabilistic information about the impacts of R&D investments on the costs of emissions abatement. We conclude that we need to gather more information about the technical and societal potential for Carbon Storage; cost differences among the different capture technologies play a relatively smaller role.