Analysis of foreshock sequence of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake of Ms 7.3

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Analysis of foreshock sequence of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake of M S 7.3

The “earthquake nucleation” is discussed in this paper. The acceleration is a property of the nucleation phase and is a necessary condition of earthquake instability too. If the acceleration property of this nucleating process is described by the equation dΘ/dt=C/(t _f−t) ⁿ , the process can be summarized briefly that the rate of cumulative seismic release is proportional to the inverse power of the remaining time to failure. Based on this principle, the foreshock sequence of the 1975 Haicheng earthquake withM _S7.3, was analysed backward. It is stated clearly that the time-to-failure and magnitude of the mainshock can be predicted successfully if the coefficientr ² attains to the maximum. In the estimation of mainshock time, the error can generally be less than, or far less than, one-half the remaining time between the time of the last used data point and the mainshock. Contribution No. 95A0024, Institute of Geophysics, SSB, China. This study is the "Eighth-Five" contract project ofSSB.     

1975年海城MS7.3地震强地面运动模拟

地震强地面运动预测对工程的抗震设计,地震危害性分析以及减轻特定地区可能发生的大地震所造成的灾害具有重要的作用.本文根据辽宁省海城地区的地质资料和发生于1975年2月4日辽宁省海城市的M_S7.3地震资料,分别构造了海城地区的地下速度结构和海城地震的震源模型,并且使用可以准确描述地形起伏的曲线网格有限差分方法计算了海城地震的波场传播过程.通过对计算得到的波场快照、合成理论地震图以及地震烈度的分析表明：（1）震源模型、地下的速度结构和地形起伏对海城地震的波场传播模拟具有重要的影响,它们所产生的近断层效应、方向性效应和盆地效应明显;（2）通过计算得到的海城地震的理论烈度分布与通过震后调查得到的烈度分布大体符合,验证了本文所构造的震源模型和速度结构的合理性.

     

Damage of 1975 Haicheng Ms7.3 earthquake in the Korean Peninsula and its effect on Kyushu, Japan

The 1975 Haicheng MS7.3 earthquake affected whole Korean Peninsula and even Kyushu,Japan.In this paperisoseismal map of this earthquake was drawn for these areas by sorting out and analyzing data systematically col-lected,furthermore,the characteristics of the earthquake damage were discussed.In the northern Korean Peninsula,the intensity is V in great majority of this area except local area with intensity VI,and the damage is basically inaccordance with typical characteristics of corresponding intensity grade.In the southern Korean Peninsula,theintensity is IV in large part of the area,however,in some big cities such as Seoul etc.,not only high buildingsshook strongly,but also some people appeared perceptions such as feeling dizzy and so on,and electrical servicewas interrupted on one or two districts because of transformer tripping.These phenomena could be caused by theeffect of long-period wave generated from a large earthquake on far-field.     

Variations of gravity before and after the Haicheng earthquake, 1975, and the Tangshan earthquake, 1976

Before and after the Haicheng earthquake of magnitude 7.3 which occurred on February 4, 1975, five repeated gravimeter surveys were carried out, three before and two after the earthquake, along a northwest-southeast profile of about 250 km in length not far on the west of the epicenter. The mean-square error of the measurements of the gravity differences between two consecutive points on the profile is less than 40 μGal. From June, 1972 to May, 1973, within a period of about one year, the results of three surveys indicated a clear decrease of the gravity values at points on the southeastern portion of the profile, amounting to about 352 μGal. After the earthquake, the fourth survey, which was carried out in March, 1975, revealed that the gravity values had recovered to the levels of the first survey and continued to increase as was shown by a fifth survey carried out in July of the same year.Variations of gravity were also observed before and after the Tangshan earthquake of magnitude 7.8 which occurred on July 28, 1976, but in this case, gravity was increasing instead of decreasing before the earthquake. Along an east-west profile of about 270 km in length and not far on the north of the epicenter, two gravity surveys were made before and two after the earthquake. The results showed that after the main shock, the gravity values of the whole profile, especially at those points closer to Tangshan, tended to return gradually to their values of the first survey before the earthquake.From these results, there seems to be a close relationship between these gravity variations and the occurrences of earthquakes. Based on results of repeated levelling work done in these regions, the estimated amount of gravity change caused by the change of elevation of the ground surface is far too small to account for the observed value. Therefore we speculate that some large earthquakes might be associated with some sort of mass transfer under ground, within the crust or in the upper mantle. This transfer would cause a large part of the gravity variation observed. We have made a theoretical analysis of this effect and attempted to obtain some estimate of the magnitude of this mass transfer, even though we are not yet clear about the physics of it.     

The Haicheng,China, earthquake of 4 February 1975; the first successfully predicted major earthquake

The earthquake of magnitude 7.3 that occurred near the town of Haicheng in north-east China on 4 February 1975 was the first major earthquake anywhere in the world known to have been predicted with enough certainty for people to have been warned, and measures taken for civil protection. These steps were successful in keeping the number of casualties small. This paper describes a visit to the affected area seven and a half months after the earthquake, and discussions with Chinese scientists about their successful prediction methods. The prediction resulted from the synthesis of many types of investigation, but the main methods used for long-, mid- and short-term prediction appear to have been based on studies of seismicity, deformation and foreshocks respectively.     

新疆于田M_S7.3地震余震序列重定位研究

截至2014年3月18日00时,新疆地震台网共记录于田MS 7.3地震M≥3余震57次,2—3级余震147次。主震位置较为精确,可以采用基于初至波视速度的主事件定位技术,对余震序列进行重新定位。通过对震源区附近进行网格搜索,对序列地震中具有6个以上P波初至的M≥2事件重新定位,获得182个高精度结果,为研究此次地震的发震构造提供参考。     

Numerical simulation for 1975 Haicheng and 1999 Xiuyan earthquake processes by DDA+FEM

Introduction The Xiuyan earthquake(MS=5.4)on Nov.29,1999,occurred between Hushan town and Pi-anling town at the southeast end of the aftershocks of Haicheng earthquake(MS=7.3).These two earthquakes′sequences are highly similar in the way that the foreshocks are very frequent,focal mechanisms of the main shocks are about the same and fault strikes are approximately in the same direction.It is important to study these earthquakes for further research on seismogenesis to fore-cast earthquake…     

辽宁海城7.3级地震死亡人数-年龄分布的分析

2004年2月，我们在辽宁省海城市档案馆发现了《海城市县委关于全县干部人员受地震伤亡统计表名单》。通过对地震时死亡以及震后冻死、烧死、捂死和病死者年龄段的分析，得出不同的原因致死者所集中的年龄段不同。这个结论对于中国北方冬季的防震减灾有相当的参考价值，对今后的防震减灾工作有一定的指导意义。     

2014年新疆于田MS7.3级地震序列重定位

2014年新疆于田发生MS7.3地震,这一地区6年来连续发生2次强烈地震,震中相距不到110km.由于初始定位误差较大,于田地震的发震断层仍不清楚.本研究的主要目标是利用地震精定位方法对于田地震序列及其背景地震活动进行重新定位,确定于田地震的发震断层.本研究使用双差定位方法对于田地震序列进行重新定位.这一方法假设两个地震的震源距小于事件到台站的距离,两个事件到同一台站的走时差主要归因于其空间位置的偏移,因此可消除由于速度模型不准确引起的定位误差.重定位后得到了435个地震的位置参数.结果表明,2014年于田MS7.3级地震发生在阿尔金断裂带的西端,余震分布的优势方向为北东向,展布长度约33km,震源深度主要集中在4~12km,多数余震位于主震的西南侧.NS,EW和UD方向的定位误差分别为0.5km,1.1km和1.7km.于田地震余震序列总体衰减较慢.根据余震分布特征和震源机制解,认为此次地震的断层面为北东向的节面,阿尔金断裂的西南延伸分支断层是这次地震的主要发震构造.于田地震的发生与巴颜喀拉块体的东南向运动有关.     

Seismic imaging of the middle and upper crust by double-difference tomography: the Haicheng earthquake (Ms 7.3) in Liaoning Province

The Haicheng earthquake (Ms 7.3) occurred in Liaoning Province (39°N–43°N, 120°E–126°E ), China on February 4, 1975. The mortality rate was only 0.02% owing to the first timely and accurate prediction, although the area affected by the earthquake was 9200 km² and covered cities with a population density of 1000 p/km². In this study, the doubledifference (DD) tomography method was used to obtain high-resolution three-dimensional (3D) P- and S-wave velocity (Vp and Vs) structures and Vp/Vs as well as the earthquake locations. Tomography results suggest that velocity structure at shallow depth coincides well with topography and sediment thickness. The earthquake locations form a northwest-striking zone associated with the Jinzhou(JZ) Fault and a northeast-striking zone associated with the Haichenghe-Dayanghe (HD) Fault, and suggest that the JZ Fault consists of three faults and the Ms 7.3 Haicheng earthquake originated at the intersection of the JZ and the Faults. Lowvelocity zones (LVZs) with low Vp/Vs are observed at 15–20 km depth beneath the Haicheng (HC) region. We interpret the LVZs in the middle crust as regions of fluids, suggesting rock dehydration at high temperatures. The LVZs and low Vp/Vs in the upper crust are attributed to groundwater-filled cracks and pores. We believe that large crustal earthquakes in this area are caused by the combination of faulting and fluid movement in the middle crust.     

岫岩MS5.4与海城MS7.3地震的共性和个性研究

1999年海城-岫岩交界地区的Ms5．4地震和1975年海城Ms7．3地震在许多方面有相似之处,如具有大量的前震和前兆异常。但由于两者震级不同,所以前兆异常既有共性,又有其特殊性。通过对这两次地震前地震活动特点及前兆异常的对比分析,利用数值模拟方法模拟了两次地震共性和个性可能的形成机制。     

1980 年以来青海地区震群活动与前震序列特征分析

采用青海地震台网资料,系统整理分析了青海地区的震群活动及前震序列,总结了震群活动与中强以上地震的时空关系,检验了前兆震群类型的判断指标。研究认为,青海地区ML≥2 震群活动增强对区内6. 5 级以上地震有一定的中长期时间预测意义,对7 级以上地震有一定的时空预测意义。利用MAPSIS 软件6 项震群参数,以满足4 项前兆指标的全组合模式判断前兆震群,对研究区总频次大于40 的34 个震群进行参数计算,判断出前兆震群24 个,占总数的71% 。100% 前兆震群后发生相应的中强震,部分非前兆震群后也发生相应的中强震;震群对应的中强震80% 发生在本地震构造带,对中强震孕育区域有一定的指示意义。青海地区有前震序列的震例较少,仅有的3 例,参数计算均不符合前震序列判断指标,对强震无预测意义。     

2010年4月玉树M_S7.3地震序列的断层结构

利用双差定位方法对玉树地震序列2010年4月14日至10月31日间发生的ML≥1.0地震进行双差定位,得到1545个地震的重定位结果.综合分析地震双差定位结果和玉树地震序列中强地震震源机制解,发现玉树MS7.3地震发震构造由北西向和北东东向两条相交断层组成,主震发生在北西走向的甘孜—玉树断裂带上,5月29日的MS5.9余震序列发生在北东东走向的一条隐伏断裂上,两条断裂均接近直立.甘孜—玉树断裂是羌塘地块和巴彦喀拉地块的构造边界,由于羌塘地块和巴颜喀拉地块的差异运动使甘孜—玉树断裂强耦合段应力高度积累,在应变能超过岩石强度时破裂失稳发生了MS7.3地震.主震断层的左旋滑动导致北东东向断层的正应力减小,库伦应力增加,45天后触发了MS5.9余震序列的活动.     

Promoting effects of 1975 Haicheng foreshocks on theoccurrence of the mainshock

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地震共轭破裂及极限主应力随地壳深度的变化——以1975年海城7.3级地震为例

许多震例表明，地震可以形成共轭破裂，地震震源处，其温度和压力与地壳浅处及地表不同，温，压越高，共轭破裂角越大。随着深度的变浅（温，压减小），地震共轭破裂角减小，地震烈度共轭角也减小，本文用数学力学方法和岩石力学实验结果，探讨了海城地震共轭破裂及极限主应力随地壳深度的变化。     

海城地震预报过程的回顾及地震预报发展的思考

通过1975年海城地震预报过程的回顾,结合国内外地震监测预报研究的进展,提出了发展我国地震预报研究的建议。     

新疆于田7.3级地震前异常特征

分析2014年2月12日新疆于田7.3级地震前山西地区倾斜仪、应变仪资料,发现侯马地震台水管仪、伸缩仪及临汾、太原、离石地震台水平摆不同程度地发生转向、速率变化。经对同时段观测资料差分分析得知,震前1—9天日均值差分值超出2倍中误差;谱分析表明,震前10天,在0.000 37—0.000 43 Hz、0.000 76—0.000 87 Hz频段,观测到大幅值异常信息;小波细节分析说明,多种形变仪器在64—128小时时段内观测到长周期低频率异常信号;震前20天体应变加卸载响应比大幅偏离正常值现象,恢复正常后发震。各测向在异常的起始时间有较好的准同步性。     

Damage of 1975 Haicheng <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>7.3 earthquake in the Korean Peninsula and its effect on Kyushu,Japan

The 1975 Haicheng M _S7.3 earthquake affected whole Korean Peninsula and even Kyushu, Japan. In this paper isoseismal map of this earthquake was drawn for these areas by sorting out and analyzing data systematically collected, furthermore, the characteristics of the earthquake damage were discussed. In the northern Korean Peninsula, the intensity is V in great majority of this area except local area with intensity VI, and the damage is basically in accordance with typical characteristics of corresponding intensity grade. In the southern Korean Peninsula, the intensity is IV in large part of the area, however, in some big cities such as Seoul etc., not only high buildings shook strongly, but also some people appeared perceptions such as feeling dizzy and so on, and electrical service was interrupted on one or two districts because of transformer tripping. These phenomena could be caused by the effect of long-period wave generated from a large earthquake on far-field.     

2020年伽师MS6.4地震前震活动研究

2020年1月19日新疆伽师发生M_S6.4地震, 震前约45小时震源区曾发生M_S5.4地震, 构成典型的前-主-余型地震序列, 显著且丰富的前震活动为研究主震成核过程提供了宝贵的基础数据.本文收集了M_S6.4地震震中100km范围内6个地震台站的波形数据, 以重定位后的地震目录作为模板, 利用匹配定位方法(Match & Locate)对M_S6.4地震前后(2019年12月1日至2020年1月31日)的小地震进行了检测和定位, 检测得到4664个地震事件, 其中261个事件发生在伽师M_S6.4地震之前, 序列目录的完备震级从M_L1.6降低到M_L1.1.基于检测目录, 利用修正的大森公式计算M_S5.4前震序列的p值偏低, 表明前震序列衰减缓慢.根据地震活动时空分布, 伽师M_S5.4地震前26天内和伽师M_S6.4地震前2天内, 发震断层附近存在由地震活跃转为相对平静的过程.另外, 伽师M_S6.4主震前2天内的地震活动存在向主震位置迁移、收缩的现象, 可能标志着断层已进入亚失稳阶段.