Oscillatory behavior of monsoon rainfall over Sri Lanka during the late 19th and 20th centuries and its relationships to SSTs in the Indian Ocean and ENSO

Summary In this study, we have analyzed the temporal oscillations of precipitation in meso-scale zones of Sri Lanka to examine potential existence of periodic oscillatory behavior in rainfall. Only a few statistically significant cycles were identified: a 3.5-year cycle in most of central Sri Lanka during the January–March rainfall regime and a cycle of the same length in southwestern Sri Lanka during the October regime. A 2.1-year cycle marks the northeastern parts of Sri Lanka during the December/April contrast rainfall regime. This cycle is shown to be strongly related to Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. October and November rainfall are found to be coupled with ENSO fluctuations, and on average, more than 900 mm more rainfall is observed per month over all stations during El Ni?o than during La Ni?a years. Analysis of relationships between the observed meso-scale rainfall regions and the Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Indian Ocean north of the Equator showed that the northern Indian Ocean can be divided into three particular regions based on similarity in the SST fluctuations: (a) a region with cool upwelling water, (b) non upwelling water, and (c) the Indian Ocean Warm Pool. We found that there are no statistically significant relationships between the observed SST regions in the Indian Ocean and the meso-scale precipitation patterns in Sri Lanka.     

Factors controlling January�CApril rainfall over southern India and Sri Lanka

Most of the annual rainfall over India occurs during the Southwest (June?CSeptember) and Northeast (October?CDecember) monsoon periods. In March 2008, however, Southern peninsular India and Sri Lanka received the largest rainfall anomaly on record since 1979, with amplitude comparable to summer-monsoon interannual anomalies. This anomalous rainfall appeared to be modulated at intraseasonal timescale by the Madden Julian Oscillation, and was synchronous with a decaying La Ni?a event in the Pacific Ocean. Was this a coincidence or indicative of a teleconnection pattern? In this paper, we explore factors controlling rainfall over southern India and Sri Lanka between January and April, i.e. outside of the southwest and northeast monsoons. This period accounts for 20% of annual precipitation over Sri Lanka and 10% over the southern Indian states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. Interannual variability is strong (about 40% of the January?CApril climatology). Intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over southern India and Sri Lanka are significantly associated with equatorial eastward propagation, characteristic of the Madden Julian Oscillation. At the interannual timescale, we find a clear connection with El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); with El Ni?os being associated with decreased rainfall (correlation of ?0.46 significant at the 98% level). There is also a significant link with local SST anomalies over the Indian Ocean, and in particular with the inter-hemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the Indian Ocean (with colder SST south of the equator being conducive to more rainfall, correlation of 0.55 significant at the 99% level). La Ni?as/cold SSTs south of the equator tend to have a larger impact than El Ni?os. We discuss two possible mechanisms that could explain these statistical relationships: (1) subsidence over southern India remotely forced by Pacific SST anomalies; (2) impact of ENSO-forced regional Indian Ocean SST anomalies on convection. However, the length of the observational record does not allow distinguishing between these two mechanisms in a statistically significant manner.     

Non-ENSO interannual rainfall variability in central Chile during austral winter

The first principal component (PC1) of seasonal rainfall anomalies in central Chile during winter (June–August) is used to analyze the circulation anomalies related to wet and dry conditions, when near-normal or neutral SST anomalies are observed in the equatorial Pacific, i.e., during non-ENSO conditions. Eight wet and eight dry winter seasons were defined as the upper and lower terciles of PC1 for 24 non-ENSO winters in the period 1958–2000. Unlike the single process attributed to ENSO, during non-ENSO winter seasons, there are several sources triggering or modifying the propagation of the stationary waves that impact the rainfall regime in central Chile. Unfortunately, the multiple processes that seem to be involved in the modulation of the interannual rainfall variability in central Chile, as seen in this work, limit the predictability of rainfall during non-ENSO conditions.     

An objective classification of homogeneous rainfall regimes in Sri Lanka

Summary Homogeneous rainfall regimes in Sri Lanka have been devised through multivariate statistical techniques. The nature of previous subjective classifications are reviewed and the need for an objective classification is stressed. Each of the major classifications of rainfall regimes, micro, meso and macro, throw new light on our understanding of the climates of Sri Lanka. New boundaries between dry/wet and dry/arid zones have emerged and are compared with previous examples. Three rainfall dominance regimes are also identified. Finally a brief account of the micro scale rainfall regimes is given.With 5 Figures     

THE EFFECT OF EQUATORIAL CENTRAL PACIFIC SSTAS ON THE INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST CHINA DURING SPRING

The interannual variations of rainfall over southwest China (SWC) during spring and its relationship with sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Pacific are analyzed, based on monthly mean precipitation data from 26 stations in SWC between 1961 and 2010, NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data, and Hadley global SST data. Sensitivity tests are conducted to assess the response of precipitation in SWC to SSTAs over two key oceanic domains, using the global atmospheric circulation model ECHAM5. The interannual variation of rainfall over SWC in spring is very significant. There are strong negative (positive) correlation coefficients between the anomalous precipitation over SWC and SSTAs over the equatorial central Pacific (the mid-latitude Pacific) during spring. Numerical simulations show that local rainfall in the northwest of the equatorial central Pacific is suppressed, and a subtropical anticyclone circulation anomaly is produced, while a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the mid-latitude western Pacific occurs, when the equatorial Pacific SSTAs are in a cold phase in spring. Anomalous northerly winds appear in the northeastern part of SWC in the lower troposphere. Precipitation increases over the Maritime Continent of the western equatorial Pacific, while a cyclonic circulation anomaly appears in the northwest of the western equatorial Pacific. A trough over the Bay of Bengal enhances the southerly flow in the south of SWC. The trough also enhances the transport of moisture to SWC. The warm moisture intersects with anomalous cold air over the northeast of SWC, and so precipitation increases during spring. On the interannual time scale, the impacts of the mid-latitude Pacific SSTAs on rainfall in SWC during spring are not significant, because the mid-latitude Pacific SSTAs are affected by the equatorial central Pacific SSTAs; that is, the mid-latitude Pacific SSTAs are a feedback to the circulation anomaly caused by the equatorial central Pacific SSTAs.     

The orthogonal structure of Monsoon rainfall variation over Sri Lanka

Summary The spatial organization of Monsoon rainfall over Sri Lanka is examined using Orthogonal Factor Analysis (OFA) on long-term mean monthly rainfall data. Three types of orthogonal structure of Monsoon regime in Sri Lanka have been identified. Interpretation of orthogonal factor scores revealed that a large amount of rainfall occurs from March to October in the southwestern parts of Sri Lanka, from December to February in the eastern parts, and in November in the northern and mid-western parts which are all represented by high positive factor scores. Orthogonal factor scores for the first three factors account for 93.6% of the total variance of mean monthly rainfall and clearly indicate that the southeast and northwest parts of the country with lowest rainfall, resulting from lack of Monsoons, are represented by negative factor scores. The three orthogonal factors identified different rainfall maxima in different time periods and, additionally, significant spatial differences between regions. Seasonal changes in the Monsoon wind system, ITCZ weather phenomena, and topography were the main factors which influence the spatial structure of Monsoon rainfall over Sri Lanka.With 4 Figures     

TROPICAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY AND INDIAN SUMMER MONSOON*

The time series of the sea surface temperature(SST) anomaly,covering the eastern (western) equatorial Pacific,central Indian Ocean,Arabian Sea.Bay of Bengal and South China Sea(SCS),have been analyzed by using wavelet transform.Results show that there exists same interdeeadal variability of SST in the tropical Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean,and also show that the last decadal abrupt change occurred in the 1970s.On the interannual time scale,there is a similar interannual variability among the equatorial central Indian Ocean and the adjacent three sea basins(Arabian Sea.Bay of Bengal and South China Sea).but the SST interannual changes of the Indian Ocean lagged 4-5 months behind that of the equatorial central-east Pacific.Meanwhile,the interannual variability and long-range change between SST anomaly and Indian summer monsoon rainfall in recent decades have been explained and analyzed.It indicates that there existed a wet(dry) period in India when the tropical SST was lower(higher)than normal,but there was a lag of phase between them.     

The Relationship Between some Large-scale Atmospheric Parameters and Rainfall over Southeast Asia: A Comparison with Features over India

Summary Monthly rainfall data for 135 stations for periods varying from 25 to 125 years are utilised to investigate the rainfall climatology over the southeast Asian monsoon regime. Monthly rainfall patterns for the regions north of equator show that maximum rainfall along the west coasts occurs during the summer monsoon period, while the maximum along the east coasts is observed during the northeast monsoon period. Over the Indonesian region (south of the equator) maximum rainfall is observed west of 125 °E during northern winter and east of 125 °E during northern summer. The spatial relationships of the seasonal rainfall (June to September) with the large scale parameters – the Subtropical Ridge (STR) position over the Indian and the west Pacific regions, the Darwin Pressure Tendency (DPT) and the Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature (NHST) – reveal that within the Asian monsoon regime, not only are there any regions which are in-phase with Indian monsoon rainfall, but there are also regions which are out-of-phase. The spatial patterns of correlation coefficients with all the parameters are similar, with in-phase relationships occurring over the Indian region, some inland regions of Thailand, central parts of Brunei and the Indonesian region lying between 120° to 140 °E. However, northwest Philippines and some southern parts of Kampuchea and Vietnam show an out-of-phase relationship. Even the first Empirical Orthogonal Function of seasonal rainfall shows similar spatial configuration, suggesting that the spatial correlation patterns depict the most dominant mode of interannual rainfall variability. The influence of STR and DPT (NHST) penetrates (does not penetrate) upto the equatorial regions. Possible dynamic causes leading to the observed correlation structure are also discussed. Received October 10, 1996 Revised February 25, 1997     

2011年4月江西降水异常偏少的初步诊断分析

利用1959-2011年北半球500 hPa高度格点资料、74项环流特征量资料和1974-2011年NOAA OLR月平均资料,结合江西83个气象观测站的1959-2011年4月降水资料,对2011年4月江西降水异常偏少成因进行了初步诊断分析.结果表明:江西省4月降水有一定的周期性,2011年4月降水处于少雨期;La ...     

2011年4月江西降水异常偏少的初步诊断分析

利用1959—2011年北半球500 hPa高度格点资料、74项环流特征量资料和1974—2011年NOAA OLR月平均资料,结合江西83个气象观测站的1959—2011年4月降水资料,对2011年4月江西降水异常偏少成因进行了初步诊断分析。结果表明：江西省4月降水有一定的周期性,2011年4月降水处于少雨期;La Ni觡a次年4月西太平洋副热带高压强度易偏弱,位置正常或偏南、偏东,导致向北输送的暖湿气流较常年明显偏弱;大西洋—欧洲环流呈E型分布,青藏高原位势高度明显偏高;赤道西太平洋附近对流活动偏强,我国大陆及东南沿海、赤道中太平洋东部附近对流活动偏弱是造成降水明显偏少的主要原因。     

Fitting optimum order of Markov chain models for daily rainfall occurrences in Peninsular Malaysia

The analysis of the daily rainfall occurrence behavior is becoming more important, particularly in water-related sectors. Many studies have identified a more comprehensive pattern of the daily rainfall behavior based on the Markov chain models. One of the aims in fitting the Markov chain models of various orders to the daily rainfall occurrence is to determine the optimum order. In this study, the optimum order of the Markov chain models for a 5-day sequence will be examined in each of the 18 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia, which have been selected based on the availability of the data, using the Akaike’s (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). The identification of the most appropriate order in describing the distribution of the wet (dry) spells for each of the rainfall stations is obtained using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test. It is found that the optimum order varies according to the levels of threshold used (e.g., either 0.1 or 10.0 mm), the locations of the region and the types of monsoon seasons. At most stations, the Markov chain models of a higher order are found to be optimum for rainfall occurrence during the northeast monsoon season for both levels of threshold. However, it is generally found that regardless of the monsoon seasons, the first-order model is optimum for the northwestern and eastern regions of the peninsula when the level of thresholds of 10.0 mm is considered. The analysis indicates that the first order of the Markov chain model is found to be most appropriate for describing the distribution of wet spells, whereas the higher-order models are found to be adequate for the dry spells in most of the rainfall stations for both threshold levels and monsoon seasons.     

Neural network based daily precipitation generator (NNGEN-P)

Daily weather generators are used in many applications and risk analyses. The present paper explores the potential of neural network architectures to design daily weather generator models. Focusing this first paper on precipitation, we design a collection of neural networks (multi-layer perceptrons in the present case), which are trained so as to approximate the empirical cumulative distribution (CDF) function for the occurrence of wet and dry spells and for the precipitation amounts. This approach contributes to correct some of the biases of the usual two-step weather generator models. As compared to a rainfall occurrence Markov model, NNGEN-P represents fairly well the mean and standard deviation of the number of wet days per month, and it significantly improves the simulation of the longest dry and wet periods. Then, we compared NNGEN-P to three parametric distribution functions usually applied to fit rainfall cumulative distribution functions (Gamma, Weibull and double-exponential). A data set of 19 Argentine stations was used. Also, data corresponding to stations in the United States, in Europe and in the Tropics were included to confirm the results. One of the advantages of NNGEN-P is that it is non-parametric. Unlike other parametric function, which adapt to certain types of climate regimes, NNGEN-P is fully adaptive to the observed cumulative distribution functions, which, on some occasions, may present complex shapes. On-going works will soon produce an extended version of NNGEN to temperature and radiation.     

Understanding Interannual Variations of the Local Rainy Season over the Southwest Indian Ocean

Located at the southern boundary of the tropical rainfall belt within the South Africa monsoon regime, Rodrigues Island, ～2500 km east of East Africa, is ideally located to investigate climatic changes over the southwest Indian Ocean(SWIO). In this study, we investigate the climatic controls of its modern interannual rainfall variability in terms of teleconnection and local effects. We find that increased rainfall over the SWIO tends to occur in association with anomalously warm(cold) SSTs over the equatorial central Pacific(Maritime Continent), resembling the central Pacific El Ni?o, closely linked with the Victoria mode in the North Pacific. Our analyses show that the low-level convergence induced by warm SST over the equatorial central Pacific leads to anomalous low-level divergence over the Maritime Continent and convergence over a large area surrounding the Rodrigues Island, which leads to increased rainfall over the SWIO during the rainy season. Meanwhile, the excited Rossby wave along the tropical Indian Ocean transports more water vapor from the tropical convergence zone into the SWIO via intensified northwest wind. Furthermore, positive feedback induced by the Rossby wave response to the increased rainfall in the region contributes to the large interannual variations over the SWIO.     

Impacts of recent El Niño Modoki on dry/wet conditions in the Pacific rim during boreal summer

Present work uses 1979–2005 monthly observational data to study the impacts of El Niño Modoki on dry/wet conditions in the Pacific rim during boreal summer. The El Niño Modoki phenomenon is characterized by the anomalously warm central equatorial Pacific flanked by anomalously cool regions in both west and east. Such zonal SST gradients result in anomalous two-cell Walker Circulation over the tropical Pacific, with a wet region in the central Pacific. There are two mid-tropospheric wave trains passing over the extratropical and subtropical North Pacific. They contain a positive phase of a Pacific-Japan pattern in the northwestern Pacific, and a positive phase of a summertime Pacific-North American pattern in the northeastern Pacific/North America region. The western North Pacific summer monsoon is enhanced, while the East Asian summer monsoon is weakened. In the South Pacific, there is a basin-wide low in the mid-latitude with enhanced Australian high and the eastern South Pacific subtropical high. Such an atmospheric circulation pattern favors a dry rim surrounding the wet central tropical Pacific. The El Niño Modoki and its climate impacts are very different from those of El Niño. Possible geographical regions for dry/wet conditions influenced by El Niño Modoki and El Niño are compared. The two phenomena also have very different temporal features. El Niño Modoki has a large decadal background while El Niño is predominated by interannual variability. Mixing-up the two different phenomena may increase the difficulty in understanding their mechanisms, climate impacts, and uncertainty in their predictions.     

干湿持续期随机模拟

该文应用数据建模技术, 实现干湿期随机建模。主要包括:利用历史气象资料, 从中采集干湿期数据; 应用实测数据, 创建干湿期经验分布函数; 应用Monte Carlo方法和经验分布参数, 随机生成干湿期序列, 通过和Markov链模型输出的对比分析, 讨论生成序列的统计误差, 测试结果显示, 与两状态Markov链方法相比, 所建模型性能更好。     

Subseasonal to multidecadal variability of northeast monsoon daily rainfall over Peninsular Malaysia using a hidden Markov model

This study involves the modelling of a homogeneous hidden Markov model (HMM) on the northeast rainfall monsoon using 40 rainfall stations in Peninsular Malaysia for the period of 1975 to 2008. A six hidden states HMM was selected based on Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and every hidden state has distinct rainfall characteristics. Three of the states were found to correspond by wet conditions; while the remaining three states were found to correspond to dry conditions. The six hidden states were found to correspond with the associated atmospheric composites. The relationships between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific Ocean are found regarding interannual variability. The wet (dry) states were found to be well correlated with a Niño 3.4 index which was used to characterize the intensity of an ENSO event. This model is able to assess the behaviour of the rainfall characteristics with the large scale atmospheric circulation; the monsoon rainfall is well correlated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in Peninsular Malaysia.

     

A comparison of three multi-site statistical downscaling models for daily rainfall in the North China Plain

Three statistical downscaling methods (conditional resampling statistical downscaling model: CR-SDSM, the generalised linear model for daily climate time series: GLIMCLIM, and the non-homogeneous hidden Markov model: NHMM) for multi-site daily rainfall were evaluated and compared in the North China Plain (NCP). The comparison focused on a range of statistics important for hydrological studies including rainfall amount, extreme rainfall, intra-annual variability, and spatial coherency. The results showed that no single model performed well over all statistics/timescales, suggesting that the user should chose appropriate methods after assessing their advantages and limitations when applying downscaling methods for particular purposes. Specifically, the CR-SDSM provided relatively robust results for annual/monthly statistics and extreme characteristics, but exhibited weakness for some daily statistics, such as daily rainfall amount, dry-spell length, and annual wet/dry days. GLIMCLIM performed well for annual dry/wet days, dry/wet spell length, and spatial coherency, but slightly overestimated the daily rainfall. Additionally, NHMM performed better for daily rainfall and annual wet/dry days, but slightly underestimated dry/wet spell length and overestimated the daily extremes. The results of this study could be applied when investigating climate change impact on hydrology and water availability for the NCP, which suffers from intense water shortages due to climate change and human activities in recent years.     

Characteristics of large-scale atmospheric circulation related to extreme monthly rainfall anomalies in the Pampa Region, Argentina, under non-ENSO conditions

Summary There is a widely held view that the Pampa region (PR) dry and wet periods are predominantly a consecuence of the El Ni?o-Southern oscillation (ENSO) phenomenom. The current paper focuses on non-ENSO rainfall anomalies for the period 1948–2000, the more recent of which have had catastrophic consequences throughout the region. We analyze horizontal water vapor transport, pressure and circulation anomalies occurring in Southern South America (SSA) during this type of event. Positive and negative (wet and dry) extreme events during the rainy and dry seasons in the region were registered. Based on NCEP reanalysis data it was established that under rainfall deficit, anomalies of similar intensity occurred simultaneously in the PR and in central Chile, whereas under excess rainfall the anomalies were mostly confined to the PR. The existence of a cyclone-anticyclone pair in the anomalous circulation pattern over mid latitudes of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and straddling the southern portion of the continent maintains an intense and extense meridional circulation over the continental plains, which leads to the abnormal values in moisture transport and rainfall rate. The atmospheric water balance equation calculated for the PR indicates that anomalous water vapor is carried in from the continental equatorial region and from the subtropical Atlantic, its magnitude varying in accordance with the season and the sign of the anomaly. Furthermore, evidence of the important role of transient terms corroborates their contribution to the anomalous total moisture flux divergence under rainfall deficit during the dry season. The mean sea-level pressure anomaly fields of the extreme cases were further examined by principal component analysis to discern those circulation features directly linked to rainfall deviations.     

EFFECTS OF PACIFIC SSTA ON SUMMER PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN CHINA, PART Ⅰ: OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS

With the methods of REOF (Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function), the summer precipitation from 43 stations over eastern China for the 1901 - 2000 period was examined. The results show that South China and Southwest China, the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River, North China and the southwestern of Northeast China are the three main areas of summer rainfall anomaly. Furthermore, correlation analysis is used in three time series of three mostly summer rainfall modes and four seasonal Pacific SSTA (Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly), and the results suggest that the Pacific SSTA which notably causes the summer rainfall anomaly over eastern China are the SSTA of the preceding winter over Kuroshio region of Northwest Pacific, SSTA of the preceding spring in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, and SSTA of the current summer in the central region of middle latitude. The relationship between summer precipitation over eastern China and SSTA of Pacific key regions was further verified by SVD (Singular Value Decomposition) analysis.The composite analysis was used to analyze the features of atmospheric general circulation in the years of positive and negative precipitation anomaly. Its results were used to serve as the base of numerical simulation analysis.     

EFFECTS OF PACIFIC SSTA ON SUMMER PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN CHINA, PART Ⅰ: OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS

With the methods of REOF (Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function), the summer precipitation from 43 stations over eastern China for the 1901 - 2000 period was examined. The results show that South China and Southwest China, the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River, North China and the southwestern of Northeast China are the three main areas of summer rainfall anomaly. Furthermore, correlation analysis is used in three time series of three mostly summer rainfall modes and four seasonal Pacific SSTA (Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly), and the results suggest that the Pacific SSTA which notably causes the summer rainfall anomaly over eastern China are the SSTA of the preceding winter over Kuroshio region of Northwest Pacific, SSTA of the preceding spring in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific, and SSTA of the current summer in the central region of middle latitude. The relationship between summer precipitation over eastern China and SSTA of Pacific key regions was further verified by SVD (Singular Value Decomposition) analysis.The composite analysis was used to analyze the features of atmospheric general circulation in the years of positive and negative precipitation anomaly. Its results were used to serve as the base of numerical simulation analysis.