Carbon dioxide emissions in a methane economy

Increasing reliance on natural gas (methane) to meet global energy demands holds implications for atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Analysis of these implications is presented, based on a logistic substitution model viewing energy technologies like biological species invading an econiche and substituting in case of superiority for existing species. This model suggests gas will become the dominant energy source and remain so for 50 years, peaking near 70 percent of world supply. Two scenarios of energy demand are explored, one holding per capita consumption at current levels, the second raising the global average in the year 2100 to the current U.S. level. In the first (efficiency) scenario concentrations peak about 450 ppm, while in the second (long wave) they near 600 ppm. Although projected CO₂ concentrations in a methane economy are low in relation to other scenarios, the projections confirm that global climate warming is likely to be a major planetary concern throughout the twenty-first century. A second finding is that data on past growth of world per capita energy consumption group neatly into two pulses consistent with longwave theories in economics.     

Stable boundary layers: Observations,models and variability part I: Modelling and measurements

Selected field measurements of evening stable boundary layers are presented in detail comparable with published Large Eddy Simulation results. Such models appear to match idealized theories more closely than do some boundary-layer observations. Any attempt to compare detailed observations with idealized models therefore highlights the variability of the real boundary layer.Here direct turbulence measurements across the stable boundary layer from a heterogeneous and an ideal site are contrasted. Recommendations are made for the information needed to distinguish heterogeneous and ideal cases.The companion paper (Part II) discusses further the issues of data, analysis in the presence of variability, and the effects of averaging over heterogeneous terrain.Part of UK Meteorological Office Atmospheric Process Research Division.     

Diurnal variation of horizontal wind direction fluctuations in complex terrain at Geysers,Cal.

Horizontal diffusion in the surface layer is dependent on the standard deviation of wind direction fluctuations . Diurnal variation of this parameter in complex terrain was studied for the July 1979 Geysers, Cal., experiment using data from a network of 11 short meteorological towers in the 25 km² Anderson Creek watershed Valley side slopes are roughly 20 ° and maximum terrain difference is about 1 km.Values of for wind directions sampled for one hour at a height of 10 m are about 35 ° during the daytime. They slowly decrease to about 20 ° by 8 to 10 p.m. as stability increases but wind speeds are still relatively high. After 10 p.m. the drainage flow sets in at most stations, with speeds of 1 to 2 m s^-1, and average increases to about 30° during the period 11 p.m. to 6 a.m. In general, highest values of at night are associated with lowest values of wind speed and greatest static stability. This enhancement of by the terrain suggests that horizontal diffusion at night always conforms to that expected during nearly neutral stabilities. That is, Pasquill class D diffusion applies to the horizontal component all night in complex terrain.     

Transport-Dissipation Analytical Solutions to the E-∈Turbulence Model and their Role in Predictions of the Neutral ABL

E- turbulence model predictions of the neutralatmospheric boundary layer (NABL) are reinvestigated to determine thecause for turbulence overpredictions found in previous applications. Analytical solutions to the coupled E and equations for the case of steady balance between transport and dissipation terms, the dominant balance just below the NABL top, are derived. It is found that analytical turbulence profiles laminarizeat a finite height only for values of closure parameter ratio c ₂ /_e equal toor slightly greater than one, with laminarization as z for greater . The point = 2 is additionally foundthat where analytical turbulent length scale (l) profilesmade a transition from ones ofdecreasing ( < 2) to increasing ( > 2)values with height. Numerically predicted profiles near the NABL topare consistent with analytical findings. The height-increasingvalues of l predicted throughout the NABL with standard values ofclosure parameters thus appear a consequence of 2.5(> 2), implied by these values (c ₂ = 1.92, _{= 1.3}, _{e = 1}). Comparison of numericalpredictions with DNS data shows that turbulence overpredictions obtained with standard-valued parameters are rectifiedby resetting and _e to 1.1 and 1.6, respectively, giving, with c ₂ = 1.92, 1.3, and laminarization of the NABL's cappingtransport-dissipation region at a finite height.     

Reactions of alkoxy radicals under atmospheric conditions: The relative importance of decomposition versus reaction with O2

The reactions of alkoxy radicals determine to a large extent the products formed during the atmospheric degradations of emitted organic compounds. Experimental data concerning the decompositions, 1,5-H shift isomerizations and reactions with O₂ of several classes of alkoxy radicals are inconsistent with literature estimations of their absolute or relative rate constants. An alternative, although empirical, method for assessing the relative importance under atmospheric conditions of the reactions of alkoxy radicals with O₂ versus decomposition was derived. This estimation method utilizes the differences in the heats of reaction, (H)=(H_{decomposition}–H_{O 2 reaction}), between these two reactions pathways. For (H)[22–0.5(H_{O 2 reaction})], alkoxy radical decomposition dominates over the reaction with O₂ at room temperature and atmospheric pressure of air, while for (H)[25-0.5(H_{O 2 reaction})], the O₂ reaction dominates over decomposition (where the units of H are in kcal mol^–1). The utility and shortcomings of this approach are discussed. It is concluded that further studies concerning the reactions of alkoxy radicals are needed.     

Stable boundary layers: observations,models and variability part II: Data analysis and averaging effects

As argued in Part I (Derbyshire, 1995), variability is a key issue in stable boundary layers, and differences in variability between observations and idealized models may imply sytematic biases. Here we discuss how data analysis can be geared to allow for variability and thus consistency with models. Instrumental errors, smoothing methods and vertical discretization are considered. We then show how statistical averaging broadly improves the agreement of heterogeneous results in Part I with the Brost-Wyngaard closure. Recommendations are made for the information needed to analyze apparent differences between homogeneous and heterogeneous stable boundary layers.Part of UK Meteorological Office Atmospheric Processes Research Division     

The heat flux density in a non-homogeneous bare loessial soil

This work describes the relationship between the diurnal patterns of the radiant energy exchange in the atmospheric surface layer and the soil heat flux density of a bare irrigated soil in an arid environment. The measurements show that the soil heat flux density is a large fraction of the net radiation. The soil moisture content has little effect on this fraction but modifies the phase relationship between the net radiation and the soil heat flux density waves. Differences between the thermal regimes of the wet and dry soil appear to be caused by latent heat exchanges rather than changes of the soil thermal properties. The data also show that the variation with depth of the soil thermal properties strongly influences the propagation of the temperature and heat flux density waves in the soil. A heat diffusion theory for non-homogeneous conductors (Lettau, 1962) which enables the thermal properties of the soil to be predicted is tested by comparison with experimental determinations in the field.     

Eddy energy dissipation rate and puff diffusion during calms

The paper considers a puff diffusion in its inertial stage when particle separation obeys the laws of the inertial subrange and depends only on eddy energy dissipation rate . The can be determined in the surface layer by the turbulent kinetic energy equation. Similarity equations connect with diffusion measure .A simple analytical model has been deduced to estimate pollutants diffusion during calms.     

Measurements of solar radiation and estimation of optical depth in the high Andes of Peru

Summary During an expedition to the high Andes of Southern Peru in June–July 1977, measurements of direct solar radiation in four spectral bands (0.270–0.530–0.630–0.695–2.900 ) were conducted at six sites in elevations ranging from sea level to 5645 m. These measurements were evaluated in Langley plots to determine total optical depths () and irradiances at the top of the atmosphere. In addition, water vapor optical depths (_wv) were calculated from the mean radiosounding over Lima during the expedition, and Rayleigh (_ray) and ozone (_oz) optical depths were obtained from published tabulations. Subtracting _ray, _oz, and _wv from yielded estimates of aerosol optical depth _aer. The components _ray and _oz decrease from the shorter towards the longer wavelength bands and from the lower towards the higher elevation sites; _aer also decreases towards the higher elevations. Particularly pronounced is the decrease of _aer and from the lowlands of the Pacific coast to the highlands of the interior, reflecting the effect of a persistent lower-tropospheric inversion and the contrast from the marine boundary layer to the clear atmosphere of the high Andes.With 4 Figures     

Footprint prediction of scalar fluxes from analytical solutions of the diffusion equation

The use of analytical solutions of the diffusion equation for footprint prediction is explored. Quantitative information about the footprint, i.e., the upwind area most likely to affect a downwind flux measurement at a given height z, is essential when flux measurements from different platforms, particularly airborne ones, are compared. Analytical predictions are evaluated against numerical Lagrangian trajectory simulations which are detailed in a companion paper (Leclerc and Thurtell, 1990). For neutral stability, the structurally simple solutions proposed by Gash (1986) are shown to be capable of satisfactory approximation to numerical simulations over a wide range of heights, zero displacements and roughness lengths. Until more sophisticated practical solutions become available, it is suggested that apparent limitations in the validity of some assumptions underlying the Gash solutions for the case of very large surface roughness (forests) and tentative application of the solutions to cases of small thermal instability be dealt with by semi-empirical adjustment of the ratio of horizontal wind to friction velocity. An upper limit of validity of these solutions for z has yet to be established.     

Bioaccumulation of Cobalt in Parmelia sulcata

Six locations across mainland Portugal were selected for exposing Parmelia sulcata, for a one-year period (8 months for one site), with simultaneous measurement of total (dry + wet) deposition (one-month periods). The exposed lichens and the total (dry + wet) deposition were analysed for cobalt contents by INAA (instrumental neutron activation analysis) and ICP-MS (inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy), respectively. The designated wet deposition was evaluated through the collected water volume; the designated dry deposition was assessed after the (dried) residual mass of the wet deposition. An excellent agreement between Co contents in exposed lichens and the cumulative (1) Co contents in the dry deposition, (2) dry deposition, and (3) wet deposition has been found for the locations with alternate drought and precipitation months, high dry deposition, and high Co contents in the latter. Continuous rainfall was found to hinder the Co accumulation in the lichen due to its release from the lichen and/or lower Co contents in the dry deposition. At three locations, P. sulcata Co contents, after subtraction of the background (before exposure), equalled or exceeded the Co contents in the cumulative dry deposition at the end of the exposure time. The optimal exposure period for this species likely depends on the exposure conditions.     

Near-field dispersion from instantaneous sources in the surface layer

This paper considers the near-field dispersion of an ensemble of tracer particles released instantaneously from an elevated source into an adiabatic surface layer. By modelling the Lagrangian vertical velocity as a Markov process which obeys the Langevin equation, we show analytically that the mean vertical drift velocity w(t) is w()=bu _*(1–e ^–(1+)), where is time since release (nondimensionalized with the Lagrangian time scale at the source), b Batchelor's constant, and u _*, the friction velocity. Hence, the mean height and mean depth of the ensemble are calculated. Although the derivation is formally valid only when 1, the predictions for w, mean height and mean depth are consistent in the downstream limit ( 1) with surface-layer Lagrangian similarity theory and with the diffusion equation. By comparing the analytical predictions with numerical, randomflight solutions of the Langevin equation, the analytical predictions are shown to be good approximations at all times, both near-field and far-field.     

On the inner-layer scale height of boundary-layer flow over low hills

Jackson and Hunt's (1975) equation for the depth of the inner layer of flows over low hills does not depend on any closure assumption as contrarily supposed in literature. This equation contains a constant which can arbitrarily be specified. It is suggested that this inner-layer constant should be determined from experimental data. A preliminary check with some data from the Askervein experiment suggests that Jackson and Hunt's equation fits these data almost as well as Jensen's equation provided that fitted inner-layer constants are used.     

On the representation of frequency spectra in meteorology

The common representation of frequency spectra in meteorology and climatology is discussed. It is pointed out that this representation is misleading since spectral peaks and spectral gaps are obtained even when the spectrum density is monotonously decreasing in the whole frequency range. A plea is made for using the spectrum distribution function, F() which gives an unambiguous picture of the distribution of variance with frequency.     

Analytical solutions for the Ekman layer

The PBL equation that governs the transition from the constant-stress surface layer to the geostrophic wind in a neutrally stratified atmosphere for which the eddy viscosityK(z) is assumed to vary smoothly from the surface-layer value U _*z (0.4,U _*=friction velocity,z=elevation) to the geostrophic asymptoteK _GU _*d forzd is solved through an expansion in fd/U _*1 (f=Coriolis parameter). The resulting solution is separated into Ekman's constant-K solution an inner component that reduces to the classical logarithmic form forzd and isO() relative to the Ekman component forzd. The approximationKU _*d is supported by the solution of Nee and Kovasznay's phenomenological transport equation forK(z), which yieldsK–U _*d exp(–z/d), where is an empirical constant for which observation implies, 1. The parametersA andB in Kazanskii and Monin's similarity relation forG/U _* (G=geostrophic velocity) are determined as functions of . The predicted values ofG/U _* and the turning angle are in agreement with the observed values for the Leipzig wind profile. The predicted value ofB based on the assumption of asymptotically constantK is 4.5, while that based on the Nee-Kovasznay model is 5.1; these compare with the observed value of 4.7 for the Leipzig profile. A thermal wind correction, an asymptotic solution for arbitraryK(z) and 1, and an exact (unrestricted ) solution forK(z)=U _*d[1–exp(–z/d)] are developed in appendices.     

Averaging Intervals For Spectral Analysis Of Nonstationary Turbulence

We formulate a method for determining the smallest time interval Tover which a turbulence time series can be averaged to decompose it intoinstantaneous mean and random components. From the random part the method defines the optimal interval (or averaging window) AW over which this part should be averaged to obtain the instantaneous spectrum. Both T and AW vary randomly with time and depend on physical properties of the turbulence. T also depends on the accuracy of the measurements and is thus independent of AW. Interesting features of the method are its real-time capability and the non-equality between AW and T.     

Numerical modeling of the nocturnal urban boundary layer

A numerical case study with a second-order turbulence closure model is proposed to study the role of urban canopy layer (UCL) for the formation of the nocturnal urban boundary layer (UBL). The turbulent diffusion coefficient was determined from an algebraic stress model. The concept of urban building surface area density is proposed to represent the UCL. Calculated results were also compared with field observation data. The height of the elevated inversion above an urban center was simulated and found to be approximately twice the average building height. The turbulent kinetic energy k, energy dissipation rate , and turbulence intensities u ² and w ² increase rapidly at the upwind edge of the urban area. The Reynolds stress uw displayed a nearly uniform profile inside the UBL, and the vertical sensible heat flux w had a negative value at the inversion base height. This indicates that the downward transport of sensible heat from the inversion base may play an important role in the formation of the nocturnal UBL.     

The effect of synoptic-scale advection on the performance of the Priestley-Taylor evaporation formula

Measurements of the appropriate parameters for the calculation of the latent heat flux over a black spruce forest in northern Quebec were carried out in August, 1980. Values of the Priestley-Taylor parameter, , were derived by exploiting the Bowen-ratio-energy-balance (BREB) technique. Derived values of are then related to synoptic-scale warm air advection, derived from surface synoptic charts and tephigrams of the planetary boundary layer. It is found that when warm air advection is present, > 1.26, especially when the surface is wet. When advection enhancement is removed, however, values of approach unity. A new approach to calculating the latent heat flux, when warm air advection is present, is therefore proposed.     

The carbon isotopic ratio of atmospheric carbon dioxide at Tsukuba,Japan

To find out the secular and seasonal trends of the ¹³C value and CO₂ concentration in the surface air and the determination of the ¹³C in the atmospheric CO₂ collected at Tsukuba Science City was carried out during the period from July 1981 to October 1983. The monthly average of the ¹³C value of CO₂ in the surface air collected at 1400 LMT ranged from -7.52 to \s-8.45 with an average of -7.96±0.25 and the CO₂ concentration in the air varied from 334.5 l 1^-1 to 359 l 1^-1 with an average of 347.2±6.3 l 1^-1. The ¹³C value is high in summer and low in winter and is negatively correlated with the CO₂ concentration. In general, the relationship between the ¹³C and the CO₂ concentration is explainable by a simple mixing model of two different constant carbon isotopic species but the relationship does not always follow the model. The correlation between the ¹³C value and the CO₂ concentration is low during the plant growth season and high at other times. The observed negative deviation of the ¹³C value from the simple mixing model in the plant growth season is partly due to the isotopic fractionation process which takes place in the land biota.     

Interactions between internal gravity waves and their traumatic effect on a continuous stratification

An investigation is made of the detailed kinematic conditions which characterize breaking of internal waves in a continuous density field. It has been observed that breaking is associated with localized, abruptly appearing intensifications of the density gradient. Turbulence subsequently develops from these intensifications or traumata.Interactions between two or more disparate waves produce distortions more extreme than would be deduced from linear combination. This is exploited experimentally by crossing two weak internal wave beams from separate sources.Lagrangian integration of the motion field defined by the beams gives extrema of isopycnic slope, Richardson number defined by shear across isopycnics and dynamic vertical density gradient, and dynamic density gradient, under conditions for the appearance of traumata.