Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Sumatra, Indonesia and across the Southern Malaysian Peninsula

The ground motion hazard for Sumatra and the Malaysian peninsula is calculated in a probabilistic framework, using procedures developed for the US National Seismic Hazard Maps. We constructed regional earthquake source models and used standard published and modified attenuation equations to calculate peak ground acceleration at 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock site conditions. We developed or modified earthquake catalogs and declustered these catalogs to include only independent earthquakes. The resulting catalogs were used to define four source zones that characterize earthquakes in four tectonic environments: subduction zone interface earthquakes, subduction zone deep intraslab earthquakes, strike-slip transform earthquakes, and intraplate earthquakes. The recurrence rates and sizes of historical earthquakes on known faults and across zones were also determined from this modified catalog. In addition to the source zones, our seismic source model considers two major faults that are known historically to generate large earthquakes: the Sumatran subduction zone and the Sumatran transform fault. Several published studies were used to describe earthquakes along these faults during historical and pre-historical time, as well as to identify segmentation models of faults. Peak horizontal ground accelerations were calculated using ground motion prediction relations that were developed from seismic data obtained from the crustal interplate environment, crustal intraplate environment, along the subduction zone interface, and from deep intraslab earthquakes. Most of these relations, however, have not been developed for large distances that are needed for calculating the hazard across the Malaysian peninsula, and none were developed for earthquake ground motions generated in an interplate tectonic environment that are propagated into an intraplate tectonic environment. For the interplate and intraplate crustal earthquakes, we have applied ground-motion prediction relations that are consistent with California (interplate) and India (intraplate) strong motion data that we collected for distances beyond 200 km. For the subduction zone equations, we recognized that the published relationships at large distances were not consistent with global earthquake data that we collected and modified the relations to be compatible with the global subduction zone ground motions. In this analysis, we have used alternative source and attenuation models and weighted them to account for our uncertainty in which model is most appropriate for Sumatra or for the Malaysian peninsula. The resulting peak horizontal ground accelerations for 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years range from over 100% g to about 10% g across Sumatra and generally less than 20% g across most of the Malaysian peninsula. The ground motions at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years are typically about 60% of the ground motions derived for a hazard level at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The largest contributors to hazard are from the Sumatran faults.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Kakrapar atomic power station, Gujarat, India

Seismic ground motion caused by earthquakes mainly affects the constructions and structures around its area of influence. In this context, the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a scientific step towards the safety analysis of any major construction such as nuclear power plant. Thus, the present study focused to estimate seismic hazard level at different probabilities for Kakrapar nuclear power plant located in the Western India. The hazard curves for the study area are developed following the procedure of PSHA suggested by Cornell–McGuire. Three source zones, Narmada-Tapti zone (NTZ), Rann of Kuchchh (ROK), and west passive margin (WPM), are classified on the basis of seismicity and tectonic setting of the study area. The estimated maximum magnitude (m _max) for NTZ, ROK, and WPM are 6.9 ± 0.57, 6.5 ± 0.64, and 6.1 ± 0.64, respectively. Logic tree approach has been used for the development of hazard curves to account the epistemic uncertainties associated with the analysis. For maximum credible earthquake [MCE, i.e., the probability of exceedance of 2 % in 50 years (return period of ~2,500 years)], the peak spectral acceleration (i.e., PSA at 0.2 s) expected around 5 km of the Kakrapar nuclear power plant (site) is 0.23 g from all source zones; however, at exact site location, it is 0.18 g. The PSA values due to NTZ, ROK, and WPM based on MCE are 0.22, 0.065, and 0.052 g, respectively. In case of design-based earthquake (DBE, i.e., 50 % probability in 50 years (return period of ~110 years)), the calculated maximum spectral acceleration (SA) from all source zones is about 0.045 g. The PSA distribution for the DBE from the NTZ has reached a maximum value of 0.042 g; however, PSA for ROK and WPM is considerably low with a maximum value of 0.022 and 0.021 g, respectively. Considering the MCE and DBE, the estimated PSA at 0.2 s has a highest value of ~0.23 g from all source zones. Spectral accelerations (SAs) correspond to different periods are presented, and SA plots for NTZ zone can be considered as response spectra for the KAPS site. Deaggregation of PSHA in the present study is also discussed. PGA values reported in seismic zonation map and global seismic hazard analysis program around the present study area range from 0.05 to 0.2 g which is slightly lower than the peak acceleration obtained in this study. The results of this study would facilitate in the performance of the site-specific seismic probabilistic safety analysis.     

Estimation of seismic hazard in Gujarat region, India

The seismic hazard in the Gujarat region has been evaluated. The scenario hazard maps showing the spatial distribution of various parameters like peak ground acceleration, characteristics site frequency and spectral acceleration for different periods have been presented. These parameters have been extracted from the simulated earthquake strong ground motions. The expected damage to buildings from future large earthquakes in Gujarat region has been estimated. It has been observed that the seismic hazard of Kachchh region is more in comparison with Saurashtra and mainland. All the cities of Kachchh can expect peak acceleration in excess of 500?cm/s² at surface in case of future large earthquakes from major faults in Kachchh region. The cities of Saurashtra can expect accelerations of less than 200?cm/s² at surface. The mainland Gujarat is having the lowest seismic hazard as compared with other two regions of Gujarat. The expected accelerations are less than 50?cm/s² at most of the places. The single- and double-story buildings in Kachchh region are at highest risk as they can expect large accelerations corresponding to natural periods of such small structures. Such structures are relatively safe in mainland region. The buildings of 3?C4 stories and tall structures that exist mostly in cities of Saurashtra and mainland can expect accelerations in excess of 100?cm/s² during a large earthquake in Kachchh region. It has been found that a total of 0.11 million buildings in Rajkot taluka of Saurashtra are vulnerable to total damage. In Kachchh region, 0.37 million buildings are vulnerable. Most vulnerable talukas are Bhuj, Anjar, Rapar, Bhachau, and Mandvi in Kachchh district and Rajkot, Junagadh, Jamnagar, Surendernagar and Porbandar in Saurashtra. In mainland region, buildings in Bharuch taluka are more vulnerable due to proximity to active Narmada-Son geo-fracture. The scenario hazard maps presented in this study for moderate as well as large earthquakes in the region may be used to augment the information available in the probabilistic seismic hazard maps of the region.     

Seismicity, seismotectonics and seismic hazard of Italy

A first generation of probabilistic seismic hazard maps of the Italian country are presented. They are based on seismogenic zoning deriving from a kinematic model of the structural tectonic units and on an earthquake catalogue with the foreshock and aftershock events filtered out. The following ground motion parameters have been investigated and mapped using attenuation equations based on strong-motion recordings of Italian earthquakes: peak ground acceleration and velocity; Arias intensity; strong motion duration; and the pseudovelocity and pseudoacceleration spectral values at 14 fixed frequencies both for the vertical and the largest horizontal component. A Poissonian model of earthquake occurrence is assumed as a default and the hazard maps are presented in terms of ground motion values expected to be exceeded at a 10% probability level in 50 years (return period 475 years) according to the requirement of Eurocode 8 for the seismic classification of national territories, as well as in terms of exceedance probabilities of selected ground motion values. Finally, as a tentative study, the use of hybrid methods (implementing both seismogenic zones and structures), renewal processes (including earthquake forecasting) and the influence of site effects (as the basis for the planning of earthquake scenarios) were explored.     

A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory

We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with M_w > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with M_w up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.     

A deterministic seismic hazard analysis for shallow earthquakes in Greece

The maximum expected ground motion in Greece is estimated for shallow earthquakes using a deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA). In order to accomplish this analysis the input data include an homogeneous catalogue of earthquakes for the period 426 BC–2003, a seismogenic source model with representative focal mechanisms and a set of velocity models. Because of the discrete character of the earthquake catalogue and of errors in location of single seismic events, a smoothing algorithm is applied to the catalogue of the main shocks to get a spatially smoothed distribution of magnitude. Based on the selected input parameters synthetic seismograms for an upper frequency content of 1 Hz are computed on a grid of 0.2° × 0.2°. The resultant horizontal components for displacement, velocity, acceleration and DGA (Design Ground Acceleration) are mapped. The maps which depict these results cannot be compared with previously published maps based on probabilistic methodologies as the latter were compiled for a mean return period of 476 years. Therefore, in order to validate our deterministic analysis, the final results are compared with PGA estimated from the maximum observed macroseismic intensity in Greece during the period 426 BC–2003.Since the results are obtained for point sources, with the frequency content scaled with moment magnitude, some sensitivity tests are performed to assess the influence of the finite extent of fault related to large events. Sensitivity tests are also performed to investigate the changes in the peak ground motion quantities when varying the crustal velocity models in some seismogenic areas. The ratios and the relative differences between the results obtained using different models are mapped and their mean value computed. The results highlight the importance in the deterministic approach of using good and reliable velocity models.     

Sensitivity analysis of seismic hazard for Western Liguria (North Western Italy): A first attempt towards the understanding and quantification of hazard uncertainty

The use of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses often involves a large number of branches that reflect the uncertainty in the selection of different models and in the selection of the parameter values of each model. The sensitivity analysis, as proposed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817], is an efficient tool that allows the construction of logic trees focusing attention on the parameters that have greater impact on the hazard.In this paper the sensitivity analysis is performed in order to identify the parameters that have the largest influence on the Western Liguria (North Western Italy) seismic hazard. The analysis is conducted for six strategic sites following the multi-parameter approach developed by Rabinowitz and Steinberg [Rabinowitz, N., Steinberg, D.M., 1991. Seismic hazard sensitivity analysis: a multi-parameter approach. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 81, 796–817] and accounts for both mean hazard values and hazard values corresponding to different percentiles (e.g., 16%-ile and 84%-ile). The results are assessed in terms of the expected PGA with a 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years for rock conditions and account for both the contribution from specific source zones using the Cornell approach [Cornell, C.A., 1968. Engineering seismic risk analysis. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 58, 1583–1606] and the spatially smoothed seismicity [Frankel, A., 1995. Mapping seismic hazard in the Central and Eastern United States. Seismol. Res. Lett. 66, 8–21]. The influence of different procedures for calculating seismic hazard, seismic catalogues (epicentral parameters), source zone models, frequency–magnitude parameters, maximum earthquake magnitude values and attenuation relationships is considered. As a result, the sensitivity analysis allows us to identify the parameters with higher influence on the hazard. Only these parameters should be subjected to careful discussion or further research in order to reduce the uncertainty in the hazard while those with little or no effect can be excluded from subsequent logic-tree-based seismic hazard analyses.     

Elemental composition of calcites in late Quaternary pedogenic calcretes from Gujarat, western India

Pedogenic calcretes commonly exhibit clotted micrite, circum-granular calcite (grain coats) and microspar/spar veins. The three calcite-types with different dimensions were analyzed for their magnesium content to determine the relationship between crystal elongation and magnesium incorporation. The results show a very low MgO content for grain coats and microspars and high values for clotted micrite indicating that the ideal kinetic model does not hold true and several variables govern the end composition of calcites. The magnesium concentrations of meteoric calcites are genetically linked to the evolutionary history of the soil and climate. Grain coats, which are elongated calcites, contain the least amount of Mg and is related to the initial stages of pedogenesis wherein the limiting factor is the Mg/Ca ratio of the parent fluid. Lower magnesium contents arise due to smaller quantities of Mg being released during incipient weathering. Micrite morphology and composition is controlled by the greater availability of Mg ions through weathering, higher pCO₂ in soil due to increased time-dependent soil respiration, which causes a rise in calcite precipitation rates and clay authigenesis. This in turn exerts a physical control on morphology by occluding pore space and providing numerous nuclei for calcite precipitation. The wide variability in spar cements is inherently controlled by inhomogeneties in parent fluid compositions with lower-than-micrite values on account of slower precipitation rates.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard maps for Panama

Probabilistic seismic hazard maps in term of Modified Mercalli (MM) intensity are derived by applying the Cornell-McGuire method to four earthquake source zones in Panama and adjacent areas. The maps contain estimates of the maximum MM intensity for return periods of 5, 25 and 100 yr. The earthquake phenomenon is based on the point source model. The probabilistic iso-intensity map for a return period of 50 yr indicates that the Panama Suture Zone (PSZ) could experience a maximum (MM) intensity IX, and the Panama Fracture Zone (PFZ) an MM intensity VIII, for the rest of the area this varies from IV up to VIII. The present study intends to serve as a reference for more advanced approaches, to stimulate discussions and suggestions on the data base, assumptions and inputs, and path for the risk based assessment of the seismic hazard in the site selection and in the design of common buildings and engineering.     

Regionalization of seismic hazard in Greece based on seismic sources

A semi-probabilistic approach to the seismic hazard assessment of Greece is presented. For this reason, a recent seismotectonic model for shallow and intermediate depth earthquake sources, based on historical as well as on instrumental data, was used. Different attenuation formulae were proposed for the macroseismic intensity and the strong ground motion parameters for the shallow and the intermediate focal depth shocks. The data were elaborated in terms of McGuire's computer program, which is based on the Cornell's method.A grid of equally spaced points at 20 km distance was made and the seismic hazard recurrence curves for various parameters of the seismic intensity was estimated for each point. Finally, seismic hazard maps for the area of Greece were compiled utilizing the entire range of recurrence curves. These maps depict areas of equal seismic hazard and for every area the analytical relations of the typeSI =f(Tm), whereSI is a seismic intensity parameter andTm is the mean return period, were determined.     

Ground zoning against seismic hazard in Athens, Greece

The 1999, Ms=5.9, Athens earthquake caused serious structural damage to buildings in the western part of Athens, Greece. This paper presents the ground zoning against seismic hazard proposed shortly after the earthquake in order to aid reconstruction of the area. Existing engineering geological and geotechnical data were combined with local observations to provide a unified set of classification criteria, consistent with provisions of the Greek Seismic Code EAK. The accuracy and the possible limitations of this zoning procedure are addressed through comparison with observed damage distribution as well as results from seismic ground response analyses performed at sites with well established soil profiles. There is clear evidence that the proposed zones correspond to geological formations exhibiting grossly different seismic response with regard to the design of common engineering structures. However, the mostly qualitative nature of the guidelines for ground categorisation provided by EAK and the general lack of systematic, site-specific geotechnical data for the whole area induce uncertainties in the definition of the seismic design actions for the different zones. These objective uncertainties certainly demand increased conservatism but do not limit application of the proposed methodology for first aid, preliminary planning in the event of destructive earthquakes.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangalore

This article presents the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Bangalore, South India. Analyses have been carried out considering the seismotectonic parameters of the region covering a radius of 350 km keeping Bangalore as the center. Seismic hazard parameter ‘b’ has been evaluated considering the available earthquake data using (1) Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) relationship and (2) Kijko and Sellevoll (1989, 1992) method utilizing extreme and complete catalogs. The ‘b’ parameter was estimated to be 0.62 to 0.98 from G–R relation and 0.87 ± 0.03 from Kijko and Sellevoll method. The results obtained are a little higher than the ‘b’ values published earlier for southern India. Further, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangalore region has been carried out considering six seismogenic sources. From the analysis, mean annual rate of exceedance and cumulative probability hazard curve for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) have been generated. The quantified hazard values in terms of the rock level peak ground acceleration (PGA) are mapped for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years on a grid size of 0.5 km × 0.5 km. In addition, Uniform Hazard Response Spectrum (UHRS) at rock level is also developed for the 5% damping corresponding to 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) value of 0.121 g obtained from the present investigation is slightly lower (but comparable) than the PGA values obtained from the deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) for the same area. However, the PGA value obtained in the current investigation is higher than PGA values reported in the global seismic hazard assessment program (GSHAP) maps of Bhatia et al. (1999) for the shield area.     

地震危险性、地震危害性和地震易损性

做好城市防震减灾工作 ,关键是对未来可能遭遇地震灾害定量化预测。本文论述地震灾害定量化的三要素 :地震危险性 ,地震危害性和地震易损性 ,它们概念完全不同 ,且很容易混淆 ,但又存在因与果的关系。本文还简要介绍厦门市地震科技工作者开展的“闽南地区综合防震减灾示范工程”。     

The Olmsted fault zone, southernmost Illinois: A key to understanding seismic hazard in the northern new Madrid seismic zone

Geological deformation in the northern New Madrid seismic zone, near Olmsted, Illinois (USA), is analyzed using integrated compressional-wave (P) and horizontally polarized-wave (SH) seismic reflection and regional and dedicated borehole information. Seismic hazards are of special concern because of strategic facilities (e.g., lock and dam sites and chemical plants on the Ohio River near its confluence with the Mississippi River) and because of alluvial soils subject to high amplification of earthquake shock. We use an integrated approach starting with lower resolution, but deeper penetration, P-wave reflection profiles to identify displacement of Paleozoic bedrock. Higher resolution, but shallower penetration, SH-wave images show deformation that has propagated upward from bedrock faults into Pleistocene loess. We have mapped an intricate zone more than 8 km wide of high-angle faults in Mississippi embayment sediments localized over Paleozoic bedrock faults that trend north to northeast, parallel to the Ohio River. These faults align with the pattern of epicenters in the New Madrid seismic zone. Normal and reverse offsets along with positive flower structures imply a component of strike-slip; the current stress regime favors right-lateral slip on northeast-trending faults. The largest fault, the Olmsted fault, underwent principal displacement near the end of the Cretaceous Period 65 to 70 million years ago. Strata of this age (dated via fossil pollen) thicken greatly on the downthrown side of the Olmsted fault into a locally subsiding basin. Small offsets of Tertiary and Quaternary strata are evident on high-resolution SH-wave seismic profiles. Our results imply recent reactivation and possible future seismic activity in a critical area of the New Madrid seismic zone. This integrated approach provides a strategy for evaluating shallow seismic hazard-related targets for engineering concerns.     

Time independent seismic hazard analysis in Alborz and surrounding area

The Bayesian probability estimation seems to have efficiencies that make it suitable for calculating different parameters of seismicity. Generally this method is able to combine prior information on seismicity while at the same time including statistical uncertainty associated with the estimation of the parameters used to quantify seismicity, in addition to the probabilistic uncertainties associated with the inherent randomness of earthquake occurrence. In this article a time-independent Bayesian approach, which yields the probability that a certain cut-off magnitude will be exceeded at certain time intervals is examined for the region of Alborz, Iran, in order to consider the following consequences for the city of Tehran. This area is located within the Alpine-Himalayan active mountain belt. Many active faults affect the Alborz, most of which are parallel to the range and accommodate the present day oblique convergence across it. Tehran, the capital of Iran, with millions of inhabitants is located near the foothills of the southern Central Alborz. This region has been affected several times by historical and recent earthquakes that confirm the importance of seismic hazard assessment through it. As the first step in this study an updated earthquake catalog is compiled for the Alborz. Then, by assuming a Poisson distribution for the number of earthquakes which occur at a certain time interval, the probabilistic earthquake occurrence is computed by the Bayesian approach. The highest probabilities are found for zone AA and the lowest probabilities for zones KD and CA, meanwhile the overall probability is high.     

Different approaches to the seismic hazard of Sannio-Matese (Southern Italy)

The seismic hazard of Sannio-Matese is calculated using a new seismogenetic zoning of southern Italy of seven areas and different, azimuth-dependent, attenuation laws. Various approaches (Gumbel's first and third asymptotic distribution, Cornell) lead to similar results for the different exposure times considered (100 and 200 years) and probability levels (37 and 68%). The present seismic regulation proposed in 1980 by the Italian National Council for Researches, and based on a different approach, is, in general, confirmed by the results.     

Cautious neotectonic hypotheses for assessing the seismic hazard in northeastern Italy

A simplified tectonic scheme for hazard purposes was recently adopted for northeastern Italy, introducing large generalized seismogenic areas containing systems of complex geometry faults. This scheme considers only major faults with documented seismic activity. In the present analysis, a different tectonic scheme, with linear elements as seismogenic sources, is presented. The assessment of the regional seismic hazard is done with the fault rupture model, its most important advantage being the recognition that the length of fault rupture during an earthquake is an important consideration in probabilistic calculations of seismic hazard. Moreover, some structures with no associated seismicity but with notable neotectonic activity are considered, and their contribution to the results investigated. Important uncertainties such as those in the maximum possible magnitude of future earthquakes, in the location of the fault, in the focal depth, and in the attenuation law are accounted for in the calculations and their influence studied. The results identify a seismic belt running from Lake Garda to Friuli and along the Yugoslav coast and are very similar to those already known for Friuli, with the largest values corresponding to the zone around Gemona. Some slight differences in the shape of the areas of equal acceleration are probably due to the delineation of the seismic sources of the proposed model. For a cautious elaboration, some neotectonic lines without present seismicity were added into the fault model. Their contribution is negligible in the areas of highest acceleration, but increases remarkably in the areas where acceleration is not expected to exceed the medium values.     

Modeling of seismic hazard for Turkey using the recent neotectonic data

Recent developments in the neotectonic framework of Turkey introduced new tectonic elements necessitating the reconstruction of Turkey's seismic hazard map. In this regard, 14 seismic source zones were delineated. Maximum earthquake magnitudes for each seismic zones were determined using the fault rupture length approximation. Regression coefficients of the earthquake magnitude–frequency relationships for the seismic zones were compiled mostly from earlier works. Along with these data, a strong ground motion attenuation relationship developed by Joyner and Boore [Joyner, W.B., Boore, D.M., 1988. Measurement, characterization, and prediction of strong ground motion. Earthquake Engineering and Soil Dynamics, 2. Recent Advances Ground Motion Evaluation, pp. 43–102.] was utilized to model the seismic hazard for Turkey using the probabilistic approach. For the modeling, the “earthquake location uncertainty” concept was employed. A grid of 5106 points with 0.2° intervals was constituted for the area encompassed by the 25–46°E longitudes and 35–43°N latitudes. For the return periods of 100 and 475 years, the peak horizontal ground acceleration (pga) in bedrock was computed for each grid point. Isoacceleration maps for the return periods of 100 and 475 years were constructed by contouring the pga values at each node.     

Some aspects of the seismic hazard in Panama City

The definition of earthquake sources in the Panama region on the basis of both tectonics and average seismicity rates, have recently led to the concept of a microplate surrounded by seismically active areas. The effects of these earthquakes on the place where the most important concentration of investments and population is located, the capital city of Panama, are analyzed in this paper using statistical approaches.The parameters of Gumbel's Type-I distribution of extreme values for a continuous interval of 60 yr annual maximum magnitudes were used to make probabilistic estimations of the seismic hazard in Panama City. An earthquake with magnitude 7.5 is capable of producing a modified Mercalli intensity VII in Panama City, provided the source distance is of the order of 100 km. This earthquake has a probability of occurrence of 69% in 50 yr.