Do large-area-average temperature series have an urban warming bias?

Conclusions The arguments presented by Wood and his criticisms of the methods used by Jones et al. are largely fallacious and are generally based on misconceptions and unwarranted assumptions. This does not, of course, mean that the Jones et al. data are perfect. Jones et al. (1986a, b) have clearly stated that, at the regional level, there may be residual uncertainties in their gridded data set. Furthermore, they have noted that there is a residual uncertainty in the global-mean change since late last century of ±0.2 °C (Wigley et al., 1986), although the main reasons for this uncertainty do not relate to urban warming. Further studies of possible urban warming biases are certainly warranted, particularly at the regional scale. However, for averages over continental-scale areas upwards, it is unlikely that any significant urban warming bias remains.     

On the Urban Heat Island Effect Dependence on Temperature Trends

For U.S., Argentine and Australian cities, yearly mean urban to rural temperature differences (T_u-r) and rural temperatures (T_r) are negatively correlated in almost every case, suggesting that urban heat island intensity depends, among other parameters on the temperature itself. This negative correlation is related to the fact that interannual variability of temperature is generally lower in urban environments than in rural areas. This seems to hold true at low frequencies leading to opposite trends in the two variables. Hence, urban stations are prone to have lower trends in absolute value than rural ones. Therefore, regional data sets including records from urban locations, in addition to urban growth bias may have a second type of urban bias associated with temperature trends. A bulk estimate of this second urban bias trend for the contiguous United States during 1901–1984 indicates that it could be of the same order as the urban growth bias and of opposite sign. If these results could be extended to global data, it could be expected that the spurious influence of urban growth on global temperature trends during warming periods will be offset by the diminishing of the urban heat island intensity.     

Breaks and unit roots in global and hemispheric temperatures: an updated analysis

The unit root testing within a breaking trend framework for global and hemispheric temperatures of Gay-Garcia, Estrada and Sánchez Clim Chang 94:333–349, 2009 is extended in two directions: first, the extended HadCRUT3 temperature series from Brohan et al. J Geophys Res 111:D12106, 2006 are used and, second, new breaking trend estimators and unit root tests are employed, along with direct modelling of breaking trend and unit root processes for the series. Some differences to the results of Gay-Garcia et al. are found: break dates are shifted to 1976 for global and northern hemisphere temperatures and to 1964 for the southern hemisphere. Although the results are somewhat ambiguous, global and northern hemisphere temperatures are probably best modelled by unit root processes with a break in drift, while southern hemisphere temperatures follow a breaking trend process with stationary fluctuations about this trend. Irrespective of the models selected, there is little evidence of trend warming before the breaks, i.e., until the third quarter of the 20th century, and after the breaks northern hemisphere and global trend temperatures warm quicker than in the southern hemisphere, the range being between 0.01 and 0.02 °C per annum.     

The influence of cloud cover index on the accuracy of solar irradiance model estimates

Summary Cloud cover index (CCI) obtained from satellite images contains information on cloud amount and their optical thickness. It is the chief climate data for the assessment of solar energy resources in most radiative transfer models, particularly for the model BRASIL-SR that is currently operational at CPTEC. The wide range of climate environments in Brazil turns CCI determination into a challenging activity and great effort has been directed to develop new methods and procedures to improve the accuracy of these estimations from satellite images (Martins 2001; Martins et al. 2003a; Ceballos et al. 2004). This work demonstrates the influence of CCI determination methods on estimates of surface solar irradiances obtained by the model BRASIL-SR comparing deviations among ground data and model results. Three techniques using visible and/or thermal infrared images of GOES-8 were employed to generate the CCI for input into the model BRASIL-SR. The ground-truth data was provided by the solar radiation station located at Caicó/PE, in Brazilian Northeast region, which is part of the UNEP/GEF project SWERA (Solar and Wind Energy Resources Assessment). Results have shown that the application of the bi-spectral techniques have reduced mean bias error up to 66% and root mean square error up to 50% when compared to the usual technique for CCI determination based on the straightforward determination of month-by-month extremes for maximum and minimum cloud states. Correspondence: Fernando R. Martins, Brazilian Institute for Space Research (INPE), P.O. Box 515, S?o José dos Campos, 12245-970 S?o Paulo, Brazil     

Perceived scientific agreement and support for government action on climate change in the USA

Given the well-documented campaign in the USA to deny the reality and seriousness of anthropogenic climate change (a major goal of which is to “manufacture uncertainty” in the minds of policy-makers and the general public), we examine the influence that perception of the scientific agreement on global warming has on the public’s beliefs about global warming and support for government action to reduce emissions. A recent study by Ding et al. (Nat Clim Chang 1:462–466, 2011) using nationally representative survey data from 2010 finds that misperception of scientific agreement among climate scientists is associated with lower levels of support for climate policy and beliefs that action should be taken to deal with global warming. Our study replicates and extends Ding et al. (Nat Clim Chang 1:462–466, 2011) using nationally representative survey data from March 2012. We generally confirm their findings, suggesting that the crucial role of perceived scientific agreement on views of global warming and support for climate policy is robust. Further, we show that political orientation has a significant influence on perceived scientific agreement, global warming beliefs, and support for government action to reduce emissions. Our results suggest the importance of improving public perception of the scientific agreement on global warming, but in ways that do not trigger or aggravate ideological or partisan divisions.     

Climatic trends from isotopic records of tree rings: The past 100–200 years

There has been a great deal of discussion about global warming from accumulation of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Houghton et al., 1990). Relatively less attention has been paid to spatial and/or temporal climatic variations that may be associated with a warmer climate (Rind et al., 1989) or with anthropogenic activities (Schneider, 1994). In this article, we show that an increase in climatic variability may have started. Fourteen isotopic time series of tree rings are presented. These trees were randomly collected from world-wide locations and cover time periods of 120 to over 200 years. The isotopic records show increasing D values that suggest a consistent and progressive warming occurred in the 19th century in all locations where the trees were sampled. The rate of warming is greater at relatively cold locations than at warm locations with two exceptions. The records also suggest greater climatic variations both temporally and spatially in the 20th century than in the 19th century.     

An Observational Analysis of the Oceanic and Atmospheric Structure of Global-Scale Multi-decadal Variability简

The aim of the present study was to identify multi-decadal variability （MDV） relative to the current centennial global warming trend in available observation data.The centennial global wanning trend was first identified in the global mean surface temperature （STgm） data.The MDV was identified based on three sets of climate variables,including sea surface temperature （SST）,ocean temperature from the surface to 700 m,and the NCEP and ERA40 reanalysis datasets,respectively.All variables were detrended and low-pass filtered.Through three independent EOF analyses of the filtered variables,all results consistently showed two dominant modes,with their respective temporal variability resembling the Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation （PDO/IPO） and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation （AMO）.The spatial structure of the PDO-like oscillation is characterized by an ENSO-like structure and hemispheric symmetric features.The structure associated with the AMO-like oscillation exhibits hemispheric asymmetric features with anomalous warm air over Eurasia and warm SST in the Atlantic and Pacific basin north of 10°S,and cold SST over the southern oceans.The Pacific and Atlantic MDV in upper-ocean temperature suggest that they are mutually linked.We also found that the PDO-like and AMO-like oscillations are almost equally important in global-scale MDV by EOF analyses.In the period 1975-2005,the evolution of the two oscillations has given rise to strong temperature trends and has contributed almost half of the STgm warming.Hereon,in the next decade,the two oscillations are expected to slow down the global warming trends.     

The Perception and Valuation of the Risks of Climate Change: A Rational and Behavioral Blend

Over 250 respondents – graduate students in law and public policy – assessed the risks of climate change and valued climate-change mitigation policies. Many aspects of their behavior were consistent with rational behavior. For example, respondents successfully estimated distributions of temperature increases in Boston by 2100. The median value of best estimates was 1–3 degrees Fahrenheit. In addition, people with higher risk estimates, whether for temperature or related risks (e.g., hurricane intensities) offered more to avoid warming. Median willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid global warming was $0.50/gallon, and 3% of income. And important scope tests (e.g., respondents paid more for bigger accomplishments) were passed. However, significant behavioral propensities also emerged. For example, accessibility of neutral information on global warming boosted risk estimates. Warming projections correlated with estimates for unrelated risks, such as earthquakes and heart attacks. The implied WTP for avoidance was much greater when asked as a percent of income than as a gas tax, a percent thinking bias. Home team betting showed itself; individuals predicting a Bush victory predicted smaller temperature increases. In the climate-change arena, behavioral decision tendencies are like a fun-house mirror: They magnify some estimates and shrink others, but the contours of rational decision rmain recognizable.     

Increasing cloud in a warming world

Cloud amount records for the U.S.A. have been analyzed in the context of the warming world analogue model described by Lough et al. (1983). Cloud amount increases over practically the entire U.S.A. in all seasons. This result considerably strengthens the more tentative conclusion of Henderson-Sellers (1986) that cloud amount increases over Europe in the same warming world scenario. These results are in contrast to the few numerical model predictions of cloud changes in warming world experiments. A possible, rather tantalizing, conclusion is that current GCM cloud prediction schemes tend to enhance temperature increases through cloud-climate feedback whereas the historical data could suggest a negative feedback. Part, possibly all, of this difference may be the result of the fundamental distinction between the two experimental scenarios: the equilibrium change modelled by GCMs as compared to the smaller transient change represented by the historical analogue. On the other hand the current real-world experiment is, itself, a transient change in boundary and atmospheric conditions. At the least, surface-observed cloudiness seems to offer a useful and complementary data source with which to examine one aspect of the performance of numerical climate models.     

Can developed economies combat dangerous anthropogenic climate change without near-term reductions from developing economies?

Developing economy greenhouse gas emissions are growing rapidly relative to developed economy emissions (Boden et al. 2010) and developing economies as a group have greater emissions than developed economies. These developments are expected to continue (U.S. Energy Information Administration 2010), which has led some to question the effectiveness of emissions mitigation in developed economies without a commitment to extensive mitigation action from developing economies. One often heard argument against proposed U.S. legislation to limit carbon emissions to mitigate climate change is that, without participation from large developing economies like China and India, stabilizing temperature at 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial (United Nations 2009), or even reducing global emissions levels, would be impossible (Driessen 2009; RPC Energy Facts 2009) or prohibitively expensive (Clarke et al. 2009). Here we show that significantly delayed action by rapidly developing countries is not a reason to forgo mitigation efforts in developed economies. This letter examines the effect of a scenario with no explicit international climate policy and two policy scenarios, full global action and a developing economy delay, on the probability of exceeding various global average temperature changes by 2100. This letter demonstrates that even when developing economies delay any mitigation efforts until 2050 the effect of action by developed economies will appreciably reduce the probability of more extreme levels of temperature change. This paper concludes that early carbon mitigation efforts by developed economies will considerably affect the distribution over future climate change, whether or not developing countries begin mitigation efforts in the near term.     

Imprint of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation on southwestern US climate: past,present, and future

The surface air temperature increase in the southwestern United States was much larger during the last few decades than the increase in the global mean. While the global temperature increased by about 0.5 °C from 1975 to 2000, the southwestern US temperature increased by about 2 °C. If such an enhanced warming persisted for the next few decades, the southwestern US would suffer devastating consequences. To identify major drivers of southwestern climate change we perform a multiple-linear regression of the past 100 years of the southwestern US temperature and precipitation. We find that in the early twentieth century the warming was dominated by a positive phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) with minor contributions from increasing solar irradiance and concentration of greenhouse gases. The late twentieth century warming was about equally influenced by increasing concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) and a positive phase of the AMO. The current southwestern US drought is associated with a near maximum AMO index occurring nearly simultaneously with a minimum in the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) index. A similar situation occurred in mid-1950s when precipitation reached its minimum within the instrumental records. If future atmospheric concentrations of GHGs increase according to the IPCC scenarios (Solomon et al. in Climate change 2007: working group I. The Physical Science Basis, Cambridge, 996 pp, 2007), climate models project a fast rate of southwestern warming accompanied by devastating droughts (Seager et al. in Science 316:1181–1184, 2007; Williams et al. in Nat Clim Chang, 2012). However, the current climate models have not been able to predict the behavior of the AMO and PDO indices. The regression model does support the climate models (CMIP3 and CMIP5 AOGCMs) projections of a much warmer and drier southwestern US only if the AMO changes its 1,000 years cyclic behavior and instead continues to rise close to its 1975–2000 rate. If the AMO continues its quasi-cyclic behavior the US SW temperature should remain stable and the precipitation should significantly increase during the next few decades.     

Estimation of net radiation and surface heat fluxes using NOAA-7 satellite infrared data during fair-weather cloudy situations of Mesogers-84 experiment

Estimation of radiation during fair weather cloudy situations of the MESOGERS-84 experiment has been examined using micrometeorological observations and satellite data. Diurnal variation of cloudiness is empirically determined using satellite information as a function of global radiation, and relationships between net incoming radiation and global radiation are analyzed. Particularly, it has been found that a very simple relationship between global radiation, cloudiness and net radiative heat flux proposed by Nielsenet al. (1981) can be used with satellite data and applied to the Mesogers region in Southwest France. The different relationships between cloudiness and radiation are utilized to modify and to validate Taconet'set al. model (1986) to get fluxes related to a cloudy situation without advection.     

Regional 500 mb heights and U.S. 1 000-500 mb thickness prior to the radiosonde era

Summary We developed a statistical model relating cyclone track eigenvectors over the U.S., southern Canada, and nearby oceans to a record of mean annual 500 mb heights. The length of the cyclone track record allowed us to calculate mean heights back to 1885. Use of mean annual surface pressure data allowed us to estimate the mean 1 000-500 mb thickness, which was related to mean annual temperature. This temperature calculation is unique in that it cannot suffer from urban or site bias. We find a warming of 1.5°C from the late 19th century to 1955, followed by a drop of 0.7° to 1980. By 1987, the calculated temperatures were 0.3° above the mean for 103 years of record.As an example of regional application, we examine results over the southwestern U.S.With 8 Figures     

Tropical Glacier and Ice Core Evidence of Climate Change on Annual to Millennial Time Scales

This paper examines the potential of the stable isotopic ratios, ¹⁸O/¹⁶O ( ¹⁸O_ice)and ²H/¹H ( D_ice), preserved in mid to low latitude glaciers as a toolfor paleoclimate reconstruction. Ice cores are particularly valuable as they contain additional data, such as dust concentrations, aerosol chemistry, and accumulation rates, that can be combined with the isotopic information to assist with inferences about the regional climate conditions prevailing at the time of deposition. We use a collection of multi-proxy ice core histories to explore the ¹⁸O-climate relationship over the last 25,000 years that includes both Late Glacial Stage (LGS) and Holocene climate conditions. These results suggest that on centennial to millennial time scales atmospheric temperature is the principal control on the ¹⁸O_ice of the snowfall that sustains these high mountainice fields.Decadally averaged ¹⁸O_ice records from threeAndean and three Tibetan ice cores are composited to produce a low latitude ¹⁸O_ice history for the last millennium. Comparison ofthis ice core composite with the Northern Hemisphere proxy record (1000–2000A.D.) reconstructed by Mann et al. (1999) and measured temperatures(1856–2000) reported by Jones et al. (1999) suggests the ice cores have captured the decadal scale variability in the global temperature trends. These ice cores show a 20th century isotopic enrichment that suggests a large scale warming is underway at low latitudes. The rate of this isotopically inferred warming is amplified at higher elevations over the Tibetan Plateau while amplification in the Andes is latitude dependent with enrichment (warming) increasing equatorward. In concert with this apparent warming, in situobservations reveal that tropical glaciers are currently disappearing. A brief overview of the loss of these tropical data archives over the last 30 years is presented along with evaluation of recent changes in mean ¹⁸O_ice composition. The isotopic composition of precipitation should be viewed not only as a powerful proxy indicator of climate change, but also as an additional parameter to aid our understanding of the linkages between changes in the hydrologic cycle and global climate.     

An assessment of the effects of climatic change on agriculture

This paper summarizes some of the results and conclusions of an international project funded by IIASA and UNEP on the effects of climatic variations on agriculture. An overall goal of the project was to improve our understanding both of first-order effects of climatic variations on agricultural productivity and of higher-order effects on regional and national economies. Two broad types of experiments are described: (i) impact experiments, which provide estimates of first-order and higher-order effects of climatic variations on farming systems, and which assume that no adjustments are put in place, and (ii) adjustment experiments, which evaluate a number of adjustments available at the farm or government level to offset or mitigate these effects.The results from case studies in cool temperate and cold regions in Saskatchewan (Canada), Iceland, Finland, northern European U.S.S.R. and Japan] are described here. Findings from a parallel set of IIASA/UNEP case studies in semiarid regions, which examine the effects of a different set of climatic scenarios, are reported elsewhere (Parry et al., 1988b).     

Modelling the equilibrium and transient responses of global temperature to past and future trace gas concentrations

Recent works with energy balance climate models and oceanic general circulation models have assessed the potential role of the world ocean for climatic changes on a decadal to secular time scale. This scientific challenge is illustrated by estimating the response of the global temperature to changes in trace gas concentration from the pre-industrial epoch to the middle of the next century. A simple energetic formulation is given to estimate the effect on global equilibrium temperature of a fixed instantaneous radiative forcing and of a time-dependent radiative forcing. An atmospheric energy balance model couple to a box-advection-diffusion ocean model is then used to estimate the past and future global climalic transient response to trace-gas concentration changes. The time-dependent radiative perturbation is estimated from a revised approximate radiative parameterization, and the recent reference set of trace gas scenarios proposed by Wuebbles et al. (1984) are adopted as standard scenarios. Similar computations for the past and future have recently been undertaken by Wigley (1985), but using a purely diffusive ocean and slightly different trace gas scenarios. The skill of the socalled standard experiment is finally assessed by examining the model sensitivity of different parameters such as the equilibrium surface air temperature change for a doubled CO₂ concentration [T _ae (2×CO₂)], the heat exchange with the deeper ocean and the trace gas scenarios. For T _ae (2×CO₂) between 1 K and 5 K, the following main results are obtained: (i) for a pre-industrial CO₂, concentration of 270 ppmv, the surface air warming between 1850 and 1980 ranges between 0.4 and 1.4 K (if a pre-industrial CO₂ concentration of 290 ppmv is chosen, the range is between 0.3 and 1 K); (ii) by comparison with the instantaneous equilibrium computations, the deeper ocean inertia induces a delay which amounts to between 6 years [for lower T _ae (2×CO₂)] and 23 years [for higher Tae(2×CO₂)] in 1980; (iii) for the standard future CO₂ and other trace gas scenarios of Wuebbles et al., the surface air warming between 1980 and 2050 is calculated to range between 0.9 and 3.4 K, with a delay amounting to between 7 years and 32 years in 2050 when compared to equilibrium computations.     

Urban reactions to the global warming issue: Agenda setting in Toronto and Chicago

Little research has been done about what cities could or should do concerning potential global warming. A few cities have adopted programs to deal with impacts they perceive may occur, and a worldwide network of 100 cities involved with CO₂ reduction has recently emerged. Global warming is a new issue for cities and most are only dimly aware of how it may affect them. Toronto, through the efforts of a few leaders, has become a pioneer in the development of an urban response program to global warming. It has charged a city agency to deal with global warming issues, in particular emissions reduction. Chicago is aware of the issue and is concerned about the negative impacts global warming could produce. While behind Toronto, Chicago is moving forward in a number of areas. These two cities illuminate the policy-making process for global warming at the urban level and the role {atpolicy entrepreneurs} can play at this level. In comparing the two cities, a common model of policy development is utilized.     

Comments on ‘the characteristics of turbulent velocity components in the surface layer under convective conditions’, by H. A. Panofsky,H. Tennekes,D. H. Lenschow,and J. C. Wyngaard

Panofsky et al. (1977) have presented an analysis which seems to show a clear dependence of the dimensionless turbulence statistics _u /u _* and _v/u _* on the planetary boundary-layer stability parameter z _i/L. However it is possible that much of the apparent relationship results from artificial correlations introduced by the use of inter-related dimensionless parameters. Apparent dependencies of similar statistical quantities on z/L in the surface boundary layer might also be contaminated.This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, and is a contribution of the Multistate Atmospheric Power Production Pollution Study (MAP3S).     

Climate change and violent conflict in Europe over the last millennium

We investigate the relationship between a thousand-year history of violent conflict in Europe and various reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. We find that conflict was more intense during colder period, just like Zhang et al. (Clim Change 76:459–477, 2006) found for China. This relationship weakens in the industrialized era, and is not robust to the details of the climate reconstruction or to the sample period. As the correlation is negative and weakening, it appears that global warming would not lead to an increase in violent conflict in temperature climates.     

Cloud changes in a warmer Europe

Cloud cover records for western Europe have been analysed in the context of the warming world analogue model described by Lough et al. (1983). It is found that cloud cover has generally increased in moving from a cold period (1901–1920) to a warm period (1934–1953). The exception to this general trend is over the central part of the area considered (Germany, France and some parts of Spain) where there is a tendency towards decreasing cloud as warming occurs. While the results presented here are not closely correlated with the temperature and precipitation results of Lough et al. (1983), there is support for their hypothesis that cloudiness increased in autumn over northern Europe. The suggestion that successful performance of numerical climate models in seasonal simulations might demonstrate adequacy in other climatic simulation modes is also examined It is shown that whilst there is good agreement with observations in one such numerical model in the seasonal simulation, there is no agreement in the case of a warming world in either the direction or the amount of cloudiness change.