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1.
Albert Parker 《Natural Hazards》2013,65(1):1011-1021
The paper presents the sea level rises (SLR) computed for the United States tide gauges with more than 100?years of recording. It is shown that the monthly sea levels oscillate about an almost linear longer-term trend with important multidecadal periodicities. The SLR time history is computed by linear fitting of 20, 30 and 60?years of data up to a given time (SLR20, SLR30 and SLR60) and is compared to the value obtained by considering all the data. It is shown that SLR60 has smaller oscillations, while SLR20 and SLR30 have much larger and frequent fluctuations. While SLR60 may oscillate ±10?C30?% about the latest longer-term value, SLR30 may fluctuate ±50?C100?% and SLR20?±?100?C200?%. The values obtained by considering all the data with a minimum of 60?years (SLRA) also fluctuate ±5?C15?% about the latest longer-term value. This indicates the need to use the time history of SLR60 or SLRA when the record is longer than 60?years to assess the accelerating trend. For all the stations, the sea levels regularly oscillate about the linear longer-term trend, and if acceleration has to be computed, this is eventually negative, that is, the SLR is reducing.  相似文献   

2.
We present four case studies of exceptional wave events of meteorological origin, observed on the Finnish coast in the summers of 2010 and 2011. Eyewitnesses report unusually rapid and strong sea-level variations (up to 1 m in 5–15 min) and strong oscillating currents during these events. High-resolution sea-level measurements confirm the eyewitness observations, but the oscillations recorded by tide gauges mostly have a considerably smaller amplitude. The oscillations coincide with sudden jumps in surface air pressure at coastal observation stations, related to the passage of squall lines or gust fronts. These fronts propagate above the sea at a resonant speed, allowing efficient energy transfer between the atmospheric disturbance and the sea wave that it generates. Thus, we interpret the observed sea-level oscillations as small meteotsunamis, long tsunami-like waves generated by meteorological processes and resonance effects.  相似文献   

3.
Pham  Dat T.  Switzer  Adam D.  Huerta  Gabriel  Meltzner  Aron J.  Nguyen  Huan M.  Hill  Emma M. 《Natural Hazards》2019,98(3):969-1001

With sea levels projected to rise as a result of climate change, it is imperative to understand not only long-term average trends, but also the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme sea level. In this study, we use a comprehensive set of 30 tide gauges spanning 1954–2014 to characterize the spatial and temporal variations of extreme sea level around the low-lying and densely populated margins of the South China Sea. We also explore the long-term evolution of extreme sea level by applying a dynamic linear model for the generalized extreme value distribution (DLM-GEV), which can be used for assessing the changes in extreme sea levels with time. Our results show that the sea-level maxima distributions range from ~?90 to 400 cm and occur seasonally across the South China Sea. In general, the sea-level maxima at northern tide gauges are approximately 25–30% higher than those in the south and are highest in summer as tropical cyclone-induced surges dominate the northern signal. In contrast, the smaller signal in the south is dominated by monsoonal winds in the winter. The trends of extreme high percentiles of sea-level values are broadly consistent with the changes in mean sea level. The DLM-GEV model characterizes the interannual variability of extreme sea level, and hence, the 50-year return levels at most tide gauges. We find small but statistically significant correlations between extreme sea level and both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Our study provides new insight into the dynamic relationships between extreme sea level, mean sea level and the tidal cycle in the South China Sea, which can contribute to preparing for coastal risks at multi-decadal timescales.

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4.
The time evolution of atmospheric parameters on intraseasonal time scale in the eastern Arabian Sea (EAS) is studied during the summer monsoon seasons of 1998–2003 using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI) data. This is done using the spectral and wavelet analysis. Analysis shows that over EAS, total precipitable water vapour (TWV) and sea surface wind speed (SWS) have a periodicity of 8–15 days, 15–30 days and 30–60 days during the monsoon season. Significant power is seen in the 8–15-day time scale in TWV during onset and retreat of the summer monsoon. Analysis indicates that the timings of the intensification of 8–15, 15–30, and 30–60 days oscillations have a profound effect on the evolution of the daily rainfall over west coast of India. The positive and negative phases of these oscillations are directly related to the active and dry spells of rainfall along the west coast of India. The spectral analysis shows interannual variation of TWV and SWS. Heavy rainfall events generally occur over the west coast of India when positive phases of both 30–60 days and 15–30 days modes of TWV and SWS are simultaneously present.  相似文献   

5.
Tsunami-like intense sea-level oscillations, associated with atmospheric activity (meteorological tsunamis), are common in the Great Lakes and on the East Coast of the United States. They are generated by various types of atmospheric disturbances including hurricanes, frontal passages, tornados, trains of atmospheric gravity waves, and derechos. “Derecho” is a rapidly moving line of convectively induced intense thunder storm fronts producing widespread damaging winds and squalls. The derecho of June 29–30, 2012 devastatingly propagated from western Iowa to the Atlantic coast, passing more than 1,000 km and producing wind gusts up to 35 m/s. This derecho induced pronounced seiche oscillations in Lake Michigan, Chesapeake Bay, and along the US Atlantic coast. Sea-level records from the updated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tide gauge network, together with the NOAA and automated surface-observing system air pressure and wind records, enabled us to examine physical properties and temporal/spatial variations of the generated waves. Our findings indicate that the generation mechanisms of extreme seiches in the basins under study are significantly different: energetic winds play the main role in seiche formation in Chesapeake Bay; atmospheric pressure disturbances are most important for the Atlantic coast; and the combined effect of pressure oscillations and wind is responsible for pronounced events in the Great Lakes. The “generation coefficient,” which is the ratio of the maximum observed sea-level height and the height of air pressure disturbance, was used to map the sea-level response and to identify “hot spots” for this particular event, i.e., harbors and bays with amplified seiche oscillations. The Froude number, Fr = U/c, where U is the speed of the atmospheric disturbance and c is the long-wave speed, is the key parameter influencing the water response to specific atmospheric disturbances; the maximum response was found for those regions and disturbance parameters for which Fr ~1.0.  相似文献   

6.
Sea level measurements along the southeastern Brazilian coast, between 20° S and 30° S, show the effect of the Sumatra Tsunami of December 26, 2004. Two records from stations, one located inside an estuary and other inside a bay, shows oscillations of about 0.20 m range; one additional record from a station facing the open sea shows up to 1.2 m range oscillations. These oscillations have around 45 min period, starting 20–22 h after the Sumatra earthquake in the Indian Ocean (00:59 UTC) and lasting for 2 days. A computer modelling of the event reproduces the time of arrival of long shallow-water tsunami waves at the southeastern Brazilian coast but with slight longer period and amplitudes smaller than observed at the coast, probably due to its coarse resolution (1/4 of a degree). The high amplitudes observed at the coast suggest a mechanism of amplification of these waves over the southeastern Brazilian shelf.  相似文献   

7.
利用T/P海面高度数据校验验潮站地面升降的初步研究   总被引:3,自引:1,他引:3  
利用TOPEX/Poseidon卫星1993—2001年的海面测高资料提取了上海和江苏临近海域这9年间的绝对海面变化信息,并与该区域6个验潮站的同时段潮位记录数据进行了对比分析。研究结果表明根据T/P海面高度数据提取的月均海面变化曲线与同海区验潮站测得的同期海面变化过程具有相当好的一致性和同步性,但是根据潮位序列得出的9年平均海面上升速率值均大于根据卫星资料得出的上升速率值。由于卫星测高数据是严格建立在地心坐标基础上的,因此二者的差异在很大程度上应与验潮站所在地点的地面沉降有关。值得注意的是经过地面沉降校正的上海吴淞验潮站数据得出的9年平均海面上升速率值仅比卫星测高结果大0. 43 mm/a,而江苏省射阳河口至三条巷之间5个未经地面沉降校正的验潮站得出海面上升速率与卫星测高结果之间的差值在0.95~3.01 cm/a之间,并呈向北递增趋势。这一对比结果反映该岸段近期的地面沉降速率可能有自南向北增大的趋势,其量值有可能达到年厘米量级。  相似文献   

8.
On the banks of the Garonne River at Bordeaux, the discovery of three antique and medieval harbour platforms situated below the highest spring tide level (HWS) is witnessed to its increase of 1.10 m between the 12th and 14th centuries. It was then identified during excavations in the port of London and along the southern coast of the North Sea. In another direction, European studies suggest the consequences of such a sea level rise by identifying submerged ancient and medieval sites. This increase can be correlated to climatic oscillations, both regional and global, as has been identified by dendroclimatology. This centennial increase has not been accepted as an integral part of the curve expressing the maritime contour line over a period of thousands of years. This latter curve tends to smooth out oscillations in the order of a century and regional scale. To conclude, this medieval increase is comparable to that attested during the 20th century; this permitting a modulation of the importance of the anthropic component on the latter. To cite this article: T. Gé et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).  相似文献   

9.
Changes in global mean sea surface temperature may have potential negative implications for natural and socioeconomic systems; however, measurements to predict trends in different regions have been limited and sometimes contradictory. In this study, an assessment of sea surface temperature change signals in the seas off Mexico is presented and compared to other regions and the world ocean, and to selected basin scale climatic indices of the North Pacific, the Atlantic and the tropical Pacific variability. We identified eight regions with different exposure to climate variability: In the Pacific, the west coast of the Baja California peninsula with mostly no trend, the Gulf of California with a modest cooling trend during the last 20 to 25 years, the oceanic area with the most intense recent cooling trend, the southern part showing an intense warming trend, and a band of no trend setting the boundary between North-Pacific and tropical-Pacific variability patterns; in the Atlantic, the northeast Gulf of Mexico shows cooling, while the western Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean have been warming for more than three decades. Potential interactions with fisheries and coastal sensitive ecosystems are discussed.  相似文献   

10.
陈瑞阁  周训  赵敬波  宋超 《地质通报》2013,32(7):1099-1104
海潮波动可以引起海岸带地下水位发生波动。建立了基于有限差分法的滨海地区一维承压含水层地下水运动数值模型。将潮汐波动概化为正弦波,模拟了滨海地区地下水位随潮汐波动的变化。通过与初始水位水平的承压含水层水位变化的比较表明,受海潮影响的滨海承压含水层地下水位与海潮有相似的波动特征,但变幅减小,受海潮的影响程度与离海岸的距离有关,随着离海岸距离的增加,地下水位的变幅及潮汐效率呈负指数函数衰减,但比前者变化程度稍缓,地下水位对海潮的滞后时间随距离呈线性增加。  相似文献   

11.
A new sea-level curve (MHW, mean high water level) for the southern North Sea is presented, spanning the last 10 000 years and based on new data recently obtained along the German coast. The 118 dates were selected from basal as well as intercalated peats of the Holocene sequence and archaeological dates from the last 3000 years. Because of different MHW levels along the German North Sea coast, all data were corrected to the standard tide gauge at Wilhelmshaven to make them comparable. Special advantages of this area for sea-level reconstructions are negligible tectonic and isostatic subsidence and the absence of coastal barrier systems that might have mitigated or masked sea-level changes. Changes of water level had therefore immediate consequences for the facies and could be dated exactly. The chronostratigraphic Calais-Dunkirk system has been improved and adapted to the new data. Altogether seven regressions (R 1-R 7) have been identified, each of them characterized by a distinct decline in sea level. These fluctuations are in accord with the evidence from other parts of the North Sea region. A draft of former North Sea shorelines is presented on the basis of this sea-level curve.  相似文献   

12.
陈瑞阁  周训  宋超  张欢  肖锐 《现代地质》2013,27(6):1465
海潮波动可以引起海岸带有越流的承压含水层地下水头发生波动。建立了基于有限差分法的滨海地区一维承压含水层地下水运动数值模型。通过将潮汐波动概化为正弦波,分别对初始水头水平及线性倾斜的承压含水层模拟了滨海地区有越流的承压含水层地下水头随潮汐波动的变化。通过对两种情形下的变化比较,结果表明,受海潮影响的滨海承压含水层地下水头与海潮有相似的波动特征,但变幅减小,受海潮的影响程度与离海岸的距离有关,随着离海岸距离的增加,地下水头的变幅及潮汐效率呈负指数函数衰减,水头倾斜情形下变幅更小,潮汐效率更小,滞后时间更短,地下水头对海潮的滞后时间随距离呈线性增加。  相似文献   

13.
The eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) is affected by two protozoan parasites, Perkinsus marinus which causes Dermo disease and Haplosporidium nelsoni which causes MSX (Multinucleated Sphere Unknown) disease. Both diseases are largely controlled by water temperature and salinity and thus are potentially sensitive to climate variations resulting from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which influences climate along the Gulf of Mexico coast, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which influences climate along the Atlantic coast of the United States. In this study, a 10-year time series of temperature and salinity and P. marinus infection intensity for a site in Louisiana on the Gulf of Mexico coast and a 52-year time series of air temperature and freshwater inflow and oyster mortality from Delaware Bay on the Atlantic coast of the United States were analyzed to determine patterns in disease and disease-induced mortality in C. virginica populations that resulted from ENSO and NAO climate variations. Wavelet analysis was used to decompose the environmental, disease infection intensity and oyster mortality time series into a time–frequency space to determine the dominant modes of variability and the time variability of the modes. For the Louisiana site, salinity and Dermo disease infection intensity are correlated at a periodicity of 4 years, which corresponds to ENSO. The influence of ENSO on Dermo disease along the Gulf of Mexico is through its effect on salinity, with high salinity, which occurs during the La Niña phase of ENSO at this location, favoring parasite proliferation. For the Delaware Bay site, the primary correlation was between temperature and oyster mortality, with a periodicity of 8 years, which corresponds to the NAO. Warmer temperatures, which occur during the positive phase of the NAO, favor the parasites causing increased oyster mortality. Thus, disease prevalence and intensity in C. virginica populations along the Gulf of Mexico coast is primarily regulated by salinity, whereas temperature regulates the disease process along the United States east coast. These results show that the response of an organism to climate variability in a region is not indicative of the response that will occur over the entire range of a particular species. This has important implications for management of marine resources, especially those that are commercially harvested.  相似文献   

14.
Vertical ground motion (VGM) rates stand as crucial information, either for predicting the impact of the actual sea level rise along low-lying coasts or refining geodynamic problems. Because present day VGM rates have a magnitude smaller than 10 mm/yr, they remain challenging to quantify and often elusive. We focus on the quantification of global-scale VGM rates in order to identify global or regional trends. We computed VGM rates by combining tide gauges records and local satellite altimetry, which yield a new dataset of 634 VGM rates. We further compare this database to previous studies that use geodetic techniques and tide gauges records in order to evaluate the consistency of both our results and previous ones. The magnitudes differ by less than 5 mm/yr, and similar subsidence and uplift general tendencies appear. Even if the asset of our database stands in the greater number of sites, the combination of all studies, each with different pros and cons, yields a hybrid dataset that makes our attempt to extract VGM trends more robust than any other, independent study. Fennoscandia, the West coast of North America, and the eastern coast of Australia are uplifting, while the eastern coast of North America, the British Isles and Western Europe, the eastern Mediterranean Sea, Japan, and the western coast of Australia are subsiding. Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) is expected to provide a major contribution to the present-day signal. Aside from Fennoscandia, observed VGM often depart from the GIA model predictions of Peltier (2004). This either results from an underestimate of the model predictions or from the influence of other processes: indeed, the influence of the geodynamic setting appears in particular along the coasts of western North America or Japan, where the alternation of transform faults and subduction zones makes it possible to assign contrasted behaviours to the local geodynamic context. Local mechanisms like anthropogenic processes or sediment compaction, also contribute to VGM. This remains true for the critical cases of Venice, the Gulf of Mexico, the Ganges delta, and the Maldives, which are particularly exposed to the current sea level rise.  相似文献   

15.
An efficient approach for evaluating storm tide return levels along the southeastern coastline of Australia under present and future climate conditions is described. Storm surge height probabilities for the present climate are estimated using hydrodynamic model simulations of surges identified in recent tide gauge records. Tides are then accounted for using a joint probability method. Storm tide height return levels obtained in this way are similar to those obtained from the direct analysis of tide gauge records. The impact of climate change on extreme sea levels is explored by adding a variety of estimates of mean sea level rise and by forcing the model with modified wind data. It is shown that climate change has the potential to reduce average recurrence intervals of present climate 1 in 100 year storm tide levels along much of the northern Bass Strait coast to between 1 and 2 years by the year 2070.  相似文献   

16.
Along the southern coast of the North Sea, a large proportion of the Flemish coastal plain consists of densely populated reclaimed land, much of which lying below mean high tide level. This is particularly the case along the northern coast of France, from Dunkirk to the Belgium border, where the shoreline consists of coastal dunes that protect low-lying reclaimed lands from marine flooding. This area is vulnerable and subject to several risks. Extreme weather conditions could induce strong surges that could cause (1) a shoreline retreat, (2) marine submersion and (3) land and/or urban flooding due to drainage problems of the polders. Highly energetic events such as the November 2007 storm could have had much more severe consequences especially if they occurred at high tide and/or during a spring tide. In the current context of global change and projected sea-level rise, it is then important for the local authorities to take into account the potential impacts and return periods of such events, in order to implement coastal risk policies prevention and management, to reinforce sea defense, increase pumping station efficiency and plan warning systems against marine submersion and polder flooding, which is not the case yet in Northern France.  相似文献   

17.
Core MD95‐2011 was taken from the eastern Vøring Plateau, near the Norwegian coast. The section between 250 and 750 cm covers the time period from 13 000 to 2700 cal. yr BP (the Lateglacial and much of the Holocene). Samples at 5 cm intervals were analysed for fossil diatoms. A data‐set of 139 modern sea‐surface diatom samples was related to contemporary sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs) using two different numerical methods. The resulting transfer functions were used to reconstruct past sea‐surface temperatures from the fossil diatom assemblages. After the cold Younger Dryas with summer SSTs about 6°C, temperatures warmed rapidly to about 13°C. One of the fluctuations in the earliest Holocene can be related to the Pre‐Boreal Oscillation, but SSTs were generally unstable until about 9700 cal. yr BP. Evidence from diatom concentration and magnetic susceptibility suggests a change and stabilization of water currents associated with the final melting of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet at c. 8100 cal. yr BP. A period of maximum warmth between 9700 and 6700 cal. yr BP had SSTs 3–5°C warmer than at present. Temperatures cooled gradually until c. 3000 cal. yr BP, and then rose slightly around 2750 cal. yr BP. The varimax factors derived from the Imbrie & Kipp method for sea‐surface‐temperature reconstructions can be interpreted as water‐masses. They show a dominance of Arctic Waters and Sea Ice during the Younger Dryas. The North Atlantic current increased rapidly in strength during the early Holocene, resulting in warmer conditions than previously. Since about 7250 cal. yr BP, Norwegian Atlantic Water gradually replaced the North Atlantic Water, and this, in combination with decreasing summer insolation, led to a gradual cooling of the sea surface. Terrestrial systems in Norway and Iceland responded to this cooling and the increased supply of moisture by renewed glaciation. Periods of glacial advance can be correlated with cool oscillations in the SST reconstructions. By comparison with records of SSTs from other sites in the Norwegian Sea, spatial and temporal changes in patterns of ocean water‐masses are reconstructed, to reveal a complex system of feedbacks and influences on the climate of the North Atlantic and Norway.  相似文献   

18.
Recent projections of global climate change necessitate improved methodologies that quantify shoreline variability. Updated analyses of shoreline movement provide important information that can aid and inform likely intervention policies. This paper uses the Analyzing Moving Boundaries Using R (AMBUR) technique to evaluate shoreline change trends over the time period 1856 to 2015. Special emphasis was placed on recent rates of change, during the 1994 to 2015 period of active storm conditions. Small segments, on the order of tens of kilometers, along two sandy barrier island regions on Florida’s Gulf and Atlantic coasts were chosen for this study. The overall average rate of change over the 159-year period along Little St. George Island was ??0.62?±?0.12 m/year, with approximately 65% of shoreline segments eroding and 35% advancing. During periods of storm clustering (1994–2015), retreat rates along portions of this Gulf coast barrier accelerated to ??5.49?±?1.4 m/year. Along the northern portion of Merritt Island on Florida’s Atlantic coast, the overall mean rate of change was 0.22?±?0.08 m/year, indicative of a shoreline in a state of relative dynamic equilibrium. In direct contrast with the Gulf coast shoreline segment, the majority of transects (65%) evaluated along the oceanfront of Merritt Island over the long term displayed a seaward advance. Results indicate that episodes of clustered storm activity with fairly quick return intervals generally produce dramatic morphological alteration of the coast and can delay natural beach recovery. Additionally, the data show that tidal inlet dynamics, shoreline orientation, along with engineering projects, act over a variety of spatial and temporal scales to influence shoreline evolution. Further, the trends of shoreline movement observed in this study indicate that nearshore bathymetry—the presence of shoals—wields some influence on the behavior of local segments of the shoreline.  相似文献   

19.
Two to three thousand years ago, the fringing tidal salt marsh wetlands (including brackish and freshwater marsh) of the Delaware coastal zone were three to four times wider than at present. Observed variations in rates of marsh surface aggradation suggest that some areas are undergoing inundation whereas many other areas are undergoing aggradation at rates greater than sea-level rise as measured by a local tidal gauge (average 33 cm/ century based on a 70-year record) and may be undergoing floral succession. Accompanying these sedimentary processes are coastal erosion rates up to 6.9 m/yr along the Delaware estuary, up to 2.8 m/yr along the Delaware Atlantic coast, and ranging from 0.1 m/yr to 0.6 m/yr along the Delaware Atlantic coastal lagoons. Human development has destroyed nearly 9% of Delaware's fringing salt marshes between 1938 and 1975. The rapidly growing trend toward hardening the edge of the adjacent landward uplands leads us to the conclusion that much of the fringing salt marsh of Delaware will disappear over the next two to three centuries with only small remnants declining to extinction ca. 1500–1700 years into the future. Impacts on the State of Delaware, comprised of 13% fringing salt marshes 1/4 century ago, will be profound in terms of destruction of a large segment of the Atlantic coastal or eastern North American migratory bird flyway, and an eventual forced accommodation of the inhabitants of Delaware to these naturally ongoing geological processes.  相似文献   

20.
The UK37′ index has proven to be a robust proxy to estimate past sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over a range of time scales, but like any other proxy, it has uncertainties. For instance, in reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the northern North Atlantic, UK37′ indicates higher temperatures than those derived from foraminiferal proxies. Here we evaluate whether such warm glacial estimates are caused by the advection of reworked alkenones in ice‐rafted debris (IRD) to deep‐sea sediments. We have quantified both coccolith assemblages and alkenones in sediments from glaciogenic debris flows in the continental margins of the northern North Atlantic, and from a deep‐sea core from the Reykjanes Ridge. Certain debris flow deposits in the North Atlantic were generated by the presence of massive ice‐sheets in the past, and their associated ice streams. Such deposits are composed of the same materials that were present in the IRD at the time they were generated. We conclude that ice rafting from some locations was a transport pathway to the deep sea floor of reworked alkenones and pre‐Quaternary coccolith species during glacial stages, but that not all of the IRD contained alkenones, even when reworked coccoliths were present. We speculate that the ratio of reworked coccoliths to alkenone concentration might be useful to infer whether significant reworked alkenone inputs from IRD did occur at a particular site in the glacial North Atlantic. We also observe that alkenones in some of the debris flows contain a colder signal than estimated for LGM sediments in the northern North Atlantic. This is also clear in the deep‐sea core studied where the warmest intervals do not correspond to the intervals with large inputs of reworked coccoliths or IRD. We conclude that any possible bias to UK37′ estimates associated with reworked alkenones is not necessarily towards higher values, and that the high SST anomalies for the LGM are unlikely to be the result of a bias caused by IRD inputs. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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