浅议水电勘测设计企业模糊管理

介绍了模糊管理的概念,论述了模糊管理与科学管理的关系,分析了模糊管理的环境与特点和水电勘测设计企业管理的特点,认为模糊管理的朴素思想实际上已普遍存在于企业的日常管理之中,管理者应加强模糊管理理论思想和方法的学习,结合当前经济形势和水电勘测设计企业特点,在相关领域进行模糊管理。     

基于层次模糊法的建设工程暖通空调设计风险综合评价

为系统研究工程暖通空调设计风险,首先采用专家调查法和统计资料法,全面调查、分析暖通空调设计中的各风险因素。然后采用主观评分法评价了各风险因素对工程的综合影响;采用AHP评价了各风险因素的重要程度和风险程度排序;采用模糊评价法对各风险因素进行了综合评价。最终得出了暖通空调设计总风险处于中等偏低的水平,并明确了各风险因素的重要程度,对于有效地防范暖通空调设计风险具有重要意义。     

Landslide susceptibility mapping using AHP and fuzzy methods in the Gilan province,Iran

GeoJournal - Landslides are natural destructive phenomena that can cause great damage to property and life loss. One of the fundamental proceedings to reduce the possible damage is identifying...     

美姑河断裂活动性研究及对水电工程影响评价

美姑河断裂带穿越拟建的美姑河瓦洛水电站，其展布及活动性直接影响工程建设。通过地貌、第四系、地质构造及地震等野外地质调查和断裂带石英形貌扫描、ESR测年等方法综合研究表明，美姑河断裂带是由3条断层组成的叠瓦断层带，在中更新世（Q2）以来已不具活动性，不属于活动断层，亦不具有诱发地震的能力，因此断裂带活动性对工程建设影响不大。     

基于TOPSIS和热点分析的都汶公路沿线地质生态环境承载力评价

针对山区公路沿线复杂地质生态环境动态变化等问题, 以都江堰 - 汶川公路沿线区域为研究对象, 提出了一种基于承载力综合质量和空间聚类关系对区域地质生态环境承载力评价的方法, 实现了对具有地质灾害易发特点的山区公路沿线区域承载力状况的科学评价。通过自然 - 环境 - 人文模型构建区域承载力状况评估指标体系, 借助层次分析法确定各评价指标因子的权重, 采用TOPSIS算法（逼近理想解排序方法）进行计算并加权叠加得到承载力综合质量状况, 结合热点分析的结果对研究区的承载力状况进行等级划分。结果表明： 研究区的地质环境、 生态环境、 社会经济承载力质量空间分布皆呈现出高度聚集性, 划入适宜建设区的面积占比31.12%, 后备调控区的面积占比31.98%, 不宜建设区面积占比36.79%, 研究区内的映秀镇、 漩口镇和都江堰所组成的三角区呈现大面积的高值聚集区, 承载力综合质量好, 空间聚集度高, 利于规划建设。评价结果为区域承载力准确评价和空间利用格局研究提供了新思路, 也可为防灾减灾工作提供参考。     

Characterisation of likelihood of gas hydrates occurrence in the South China Sea based on Bonferroni mean-based TOPSIS and fuzzy set theory

The efficiency of gas hydrate production depends on the success of gas exploration and occurrence evaluation. The existing evaluation models are generally univariate and only applicable to certain geological settings. This study presents a holistic approach to evaluate the likelihood of gas hydrate occurrence by supplying an index for mapping gas hydrate levels with depth. The approach integrates a generalised TOPSIS method with the fuzzy set theory. An expedition of gas hydrate conducted in the Shenhu area of the South China Sea was adopted as a case study to assess the reliability of the proposed index. As a multivariate model, the proposed approach enables the capture of non-linearity associated with gas hydrates in its entirety. The magnitude of the strength of the influential factor varies substantially from one site to another across the Shenhu area. The results also show that no site achieves the highest likelihood ‘Level V’. These results are consistent with the gas saturation values obtained using Archie’s relationship. For example, at SH4 and SH7, the values of the likelihood index are the highest between 170–185 m and 150–165 m, respectively, and the observed saturation at these locations varies from 20% (SH4) to 43% (SH7). The proposed likelihood index yields a prominent ability to quantify the level of occurrence of gas hydrates with depth at different sites. It appears to be an efficient multicriteria system bound to improve the management of the gas production trial stage.     

基于WBS-RBS的地铁基坑故障树风险识别与分析

针对地铁基坑工程环境复杂、影响因素多的特点,提出以故障树分析为基础结合工作分解结构（WBS）-风险分解结构（WBS）进行风险识别的方法。此方法引入WBS-RBS将地铁基坑工程工作分解结构和风险源分解结构耦合判断并说明相应风险因素或风险事件,并按照故障树建树原则根据彼此间的逻辑关系,用逻辑门连接上下层事件,形成地铁基坑工程主要故障树。在此基础上,对风险因素进行敏感性分析并提出相应的预防措施。     

水化学溶液下灰岩力学特性及神经网络模拟研究

基于水化学溶液浸泡的饱和灰岩三轴压缩试验结果,分析了影响灰岩变形及强度等力学特性的主要因素,认为随溶液酸碱度增加,弹性模量及峰值强度均有降低的趋势;相同pH值,Na2SO4溶液、蒸馏水和CaCl2溶液对灰岩强度的弱化程度依次降低;随着围压的增加,岩石强度逐渐增大,岩石到达峰值强度时的轴向变形也越来越大,塑性变形明显增加。考虑应力路径和化学溶液的影响,利用遗传算法优化神经网络结构,建立了进化神经网络本构模型。通过样本学习模型能较好地描述化学环境下灰岩的力学性能,5种不同化学环境下的力学试验验证了进化神经网络模型模拟结果的可靠性,该方法可以推广到化学环境下其他岩石的力学试验模拟。     

Susceptibility analysis of large-scale debris flows based on combination weighting and extension methods

Susceptibility is an important issue in debris flow analysis. In this paper, 26 large-scale debris flow catchments located in the Wudongde Dam site were investigated. Seven major factors, namely, loose material volume per square kilometer, loose material supply length ratio, average gradient of the main channel, average hill slope, drainage density, curvature of the main channel, and poor vegetation area ratio, were selected for debris flow susceptibility analysis. Geographic information system, global positioning system, and remote sensing, collectively known as 3S technologies, were used to determine major factors. Weights of major factors affecting debris flow susceptibility were determined. This paper applied the combination weighting method, which considers both the preference of the engineers for major factors and the objective major factor information by using analytic hierarchy process and entropy method. Combination weights of major factors for the investigated 26 debris flow catchments are 0.20, 0.12, 0.20, 0.10, 0.08, 0.19, and 0.11, respectively. Combination weights follow the order of loose material volume per square kilometer = average gradient of the main channel > curvature of the main channel > loose material supply length ratio > poor vegetation area ratio > average hill slope > drainage density. This paper applied extension theory, which is used to solve incompatibility and contradiction problems, to determine susceptibility. Susceptibility results show that the susceptibility of 4 debris flow catchments are very low, 13 are low, 8 are moderate, and 1 is high. Assessment results exhibit consistency with the activity analysis.     

南水北调工程对北京地区生态环境变化的影响研究

南水北调引水工程实施后,对北京市的供水面积达700km^2。供水范围内的水位将会有不同程度的上升,10年后北京市地下水资源储存量将增加16.8×10^8m^3,缓解北京水资源短缺的现状。同时,不可避免地改变目前的地质环境状态：地面沉降灾害将减缓;地下水总硬度将会降低等;改变建筑物抗浮能力,造成已有地下建筑物的设防水位和防渗水位的变化、地下室可能出现渗漏问题;砂土液化的范围将扩大;供水区域内非正规固体废弃物填埋、堆放场的固体废弃物受到地下水不同程度的浸泡,产生大量的垃圾浸出液,浸出液中污染物进入地下含水层后,势必对附近的地下水造成了不同程度的污染等环境地质问题。     

Estimation of groundwater recharge of shallow aquifer on humid environment in Yaounde,Cameroon using hybrid water-fluctuation and hydrochemistry methods

A study of environmental chloride and groundwater balance has been carried out in order to estimate their relative value for measuring average groundwater recharge under a humid climatic environment with a relatively shallow water table. The hybrid water fluctuation method allowed the split of the hydrologic year into two seasons of recharge (wet season) and no recharge (dry season) to appraise specific yield during the dry season and, second, to estimate recharge from the water table rise during the wet season. This well elaborated and suitable method has then been used as a standard to assess the effectiveness of the chloride method under forest humid climatic environment. Effective specific yield of 0.08 was obtained for the study area. It reflects an effective basin-wide process and is insensitive to local heterogeneities in the aquifer system. The hybrid water fluctuation method gives an average recharge value of 87.14 mm/year at the basin scale, which represents 5.7% of the annual rainfall. Recharge value estimated based on the chloride method varies between 16.24 and 236.95 mm/year with an average value of 108.45 mm/year. It represents 7% of the mean annual precipitation. The discrepancy observed between recharge value estimated by the hybrid water fluctuation and the chloride mass balance methods appears to be very important, which could imply the ineffectiveness of the chloride mass balance method for this present humid environment.     

Statistical evaluation of methods for the calculation of static formation temperatures in geothermal and oil wells using an extension of the error propagation theory

The feasibility of using the more sophisticated weighted least-squares (WLS) model, as opposed to the traditional ordinary least-squares (OLS), in linear regressions of BHT data to estimate the static formation temperatures (SFT) was investigated. The most commonly used analytical methods (line-source; spherical and radial heat flow; and cylindrical heat source) were applied. Error propagation equations were derived to calculate errors in the time function of each method. These errors were combined with the BHT measurement errors to compute weighting factors for applying the WLS. Intercept uncertainties were estimated for all regressions using sets of synthetic and actual borehole logs taken from geothermal and oil applications. SFT computed with the spherical and radial heat flow method were generally greater than those from the other two methods.     

小湾电站高边坡系统锚固与排水的优化设计方法

据小湾电站地下厂房进水口开挖高边坡的岩体结构与工程地质特征,采用基于结构面网络模拟的随机楔体稳定分析方法对边坡的稳定性进行了三维分析。进一步运用风险分析理论对边坡系统锚杆与预应力锚索的布置进行了优化设计,最后运用结构面网络模拟理论对排水方案进行了优化设计。     

地下水“三氮”污染来源及其识别方法研究进展

近年来随着人类活动增加、工业废水的大量排放以及农业氮肥过量施用,使得地下水中“三氮”（即硝酸盐氮、氨氮、亚硝酸盐氮）污染问题愈加严重,对人体带来潜在健康风险。通过地下水“三氮”污染分布及来源作出解析,对于开展污染源头防控具有重要的现实意义。本文以黑龙江省海伦地区浅层地下水作为研究对象,采用气相分子吸收光谱法（GMA）及电感耦合等离子体质谱法（ICP-MS）测定了地下水中“三氮”及其他金属元素的检出情况,应用内梅罗综合污染指数法对地下水中“三氮”划分水质污染等级,综合运用Pearson相关性分析、正定矩阵因子分析法（PMF）等方法,识别和定量解析污染源及贡献。结果表明：①研究区地下水中硝酸盐氮含量范围在0.021～123.05mg/L之间,平均浓度为15.27mg/L;氨氮含量范围在 ND～3.91mg/L之间,平均浓度为0.33mg/L;亚硝酸盐含量范围在ND～0.65mg/L之间。与《地下水质量标准》（GB/T 14848—2017）Ⅲ类水指标对比,硝酸盐氮超标率为20.0%,氨氮超标率为12.5%。②内梅罗综合污染指数评价结果表明,研究区地下水水质污染等级一级至三级中度污染地下水占比为92.5%,整体上水质“三氮”污染较轻。海伦地区“三氮”空间分布整体上呈现出氨氮、硝酸盐氮流域中心区近端含量高、远端含量低的趋势。硝酸盐氮及氨氮超标点主要分布在研究区中部的人类活动密集区域。亚硝酸盐氮在空间分布上沿海伦河流向呈现出北高南低的趋势。③正定矩阵因子分析模型（PMF）源解析结果表明,硝酸盐氮主要来源于生活与工业复合源;亚硝酸盐氮主要来源于自然源;氨氮主要来源于生活与农业复合源。与中南部长三角武进地区太湖平原、西南部成都平原及东南部广花盆地地下水相比,海伦地区氨氮含量偏低,硝酸盐氮均值则均高于中南部地区。“三氮”的源解析结果呼应了东三省尤其是黑龙江部分地区“三氮”含量较高的分布特征。海伦地区地下水“三氮”污染程度整体上相对较轻,人类活动对地下水中“三氮”分布的影响较大。

     

基于AHP和模糊综合评判的TBM施工风险评估

岩石隧洞建设中面临很大和众多的风险,利用TBM施工的深埋长隧洞受多种不确定因素影响,具有随机性和模糊性,目前的研究方法难以对其进行准确定量分析。通过深入分析影响TBM施工的风险因素,建立了TBM施工风险综合评价指标体系。基于风险影响因素的层次性,提出了TBM施工风险二级模糊综合评判计算模型,并利用层次分析法(AHP)确定各级因素权重,利用模糊集法确定隶属函数,划分了风险接受等级。以南水北调西线工程深埋长隧洞TBM施工为例,应用二级模糊综合评判计算模型对该工程TBM施工风险进行分析,计算结果表明,该方法是合理性实用的。其理论、方法、思路和结论可供同类工程借鉴。     

青藏铁路Ⅱ期工程西藏段西侧湖泊资源与环境

青藏铁路Ⅱ期工程西藏段西侧地理坐标为东经88°0'～91°57'23″,北纬30°11'54″～32°28'06″,面积约126875km2,有大小湖泊106个。中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所于2001年在距正在修建的青藏铁路Ⅱ期工程约300km处的班戈湖(湖面海拔4522m)建立了目前世界上海拔最高的湖泊资源与环境试验观测站,开展了一系列研究工作。研究区湖泊中有硼、锂、钾、石盐、镁、芒硝、碱、钠、铯等9种盐类资源。班戈湖型卤水提锂的小型蒸发试验表明,卤水制备需采取2阶段方式,并经使用冻出芒硝与卤水分离和“不蒸发而升温”技术,在盐田中已制取含Li2CO322.4%的混盐。这一技术对研究区锂资源开发有借鉴作用。对气象和水文也进行了观测。     

Selection of wastewater treatment process based on the analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process methods

This paper presents an application of the analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process methods for selecting the best wastewater treatment process. The analytical hierarchy process is one of the best ways for deciding among the complex criteria structure in different levels, and the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process is a synthetic extension of the classical method when the fuzziness of the decision makers are considered. After reviewing aerobic treatment processes operated in Iran’s industrial estates and determining the main criteria used for treatment process evaluation, they are arranged in a hierarchy structure. Selection of the best wastewater treatment process is a multi-criteria decision making problem. Conventional methods are inadequate for dealing with the imprecise or vague nature of linguistic assessment. To overcome this difficulty, the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process is proposed for dealing with the vagueness of decision makers’ judgments. The alternatives consist of extended aeration, absorption bio-oxidation, integrated fixed-film activated sludge, sequencing batch reactor, aerated lagoon. Based on the general condition of industrial estate’s wastewater treatment plants, technical/administrative, economic and environmental criteria and their sub-criteria are weighted and then criteria evaluated and priorities of alternatives have been done by analytical hierarchy process and fuzzy analytical hierarchy process methods by the use of triangular fuzzy numbers. Finally, selection of the best process and ranking of these five processes are carried out by these foregoing methods, and some sensitivity analyses are conducted to show the results’ sensitiveness to the changes of the weights of the evaluation criteria.     

节水条件下土壤氮素的环境影响效应研究

土壤无机氮素的损失主要是铵氮的挥发损失和硝氮的反硝化和淋失.土壤水分和氮素含量的增加,都将增加氮肥淋失的潜在威胁,如处置不当,获得高产可能需要以环境的污染为代价.节水条件下土壤无机氮素的损失量有所减少,但是氮素利用效率也同时受到了土壤水分状况的限制.探讨了作物产量、氮素损失和农业生产要素(水分、氮素)实际投入量之间的关系,建立了节水条件下土壤氮素损失和环境评价概念型模型,通过在北京水利科学研究所永乐店灌溉试验站3年的试验资料对模型进行了参数求解及校验.     

模拟降雨条件下坡面细沟形态演变与量化方法

为探明坡面土壤侵蚀过程中细沟的演变规律,研究细沟形态特征量化方法是非常重要的。利用室内土槽模拟降雨试验,对比了45 mm/h、87 mm/h和127 mm/h雨强下容重分别为1.30 g/cm3和1.05 g/cm3两种黄土在20°陡坡坡面细沟发育形态的差异,并分别采用分形维数、拓扑参数对细沟沟网的形态特征进行量化描述,引入地貌信息熵理论进行坡面地貌信息熵计算,然后对各量化参数的敏感性进行了分析。结果表明,分形维数作为整体性的量化参数,对描述发育成熟的细沟形态差异不够灵敏;坡面地貌信息熵能够反映侵蚀过程中侵蚀程度的变化,对细沟发育程度的描述较为灵敏;细沟沟网的拓扑特征参数较好地体现了沟网内部结构的差异,可用于描述沟网内部结构特征的较灵敏参数。