Seismicity of Gujarat

Paper describes tectonics, earthquake monitoring, past and present seismicity, catalogue of earthquakes and estimated return periods of large earthquakes in Gujarat state, western India. The Gujarat region has three failed Mesozoic rifts of Kachchh, Cambay, and Narmada, with several active faults. Kachchh district of Gujarat is the only region outside Himalaya-Andaman belt that has high seismic hazard of magnitude 8 corresponding to zone V in the seismic zoning map of India. The other parts of Gujarat have seismic hazard of magnitude 6 or less. Kachchh region is considered seismically one of the most active intraplate regions of the World. It is known to have low seismicity but high hazard in view of occurrence of fewer smaller earthquakes of M????6 in a region having three devastating earthquakes that occurred during 1819 (M _w7.8), 1956 (M _w6.0) and 2001 (M _w7.7). The second in order of seismic status is Narmada rift zone that experienced a severely damaging 1970 Bharuch earthquake of M5.4 at its western end and M????6 earthquakes further east in 1927 (Son earthquake), 1938 (Satpura earthquake) and 1997 (Jabalpur earthquake). The Saurashtra Peninsula south of Kachchh has experienced seismicity of magnitude less than 6.     

Seismic source characteristics in Kachchh and Saurashtra regions of Western India: <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis>-value and fractal dimension mapping of aftershock sequences

Seismic source characteristics in the Kachchh rift basin and Saurashtra horst tectonic blocks in the stable continental region (SCR) of western peninsular India are studied using the earthquake catalog data for the period 2006–2011 recorded by a 52-station broadband seismic network known as Gujarat State Network (GSNet) running by Institute of Seismological Research (ISR), Gujarat. These data are mainly the aftershock sequences of three mainshocks, the 2001 Bhuj earthquake (M _w 7.7) in the Kachchh rift basin, and the 2007 and 2011 Talala earthquakes (M _w ≥ 5.0) in the Saurashtra horst. Two important seismological parameters, the frequency–magnitude relation (b-value) and the fractal correlation dimension (D _c) of the hypocenters, are estimated. The b-value and the D _c maps indicate a difference in seismic characteristics of these two tectonic regions. The average b-value in Kachchh region is 1.2 ± 0.05 and that in the Saurashtra region 0.7 ± 0.04. The average D _c in Kachchh is 2.64 ± 0.01 and in Saurashtra 2.46 ± 0.01. The hypocenters in Kachchh rift basin cluster at a depth range 20–35 km and that in Saurashtra at 5–10 km. The b-value and D _c cross sections image the seismogenic structures that shed new light on seismotectonics of these two tectonic regions. The mainshock sources at depth are identified as lower b-value or stressed zones at the fault end. Crustal heterogeneities are well reflected in the maps as well as in the cross sections. We also find a positive correlation between b- and D _c-values in both the tectonic regions.     

Seismic source characteristics in Kachchh and Saurashtra regions of Western India: b-value and fractal dimension mapping of aftershock sequences

Seismic source characteristics in the Kachchh rift basin and Saurashtra horst tectonic blocks in the stable continental region (SCR) of western peninsular India are studied using the earthquake catalog data for the period 2006–2011 recorded by a 52-station broadband seismic network known as Gujarat State Network (GSNet) running by Institute of Seismological Research (ISR), Gujarat. These data are mainly the aftershock sequences of three mainshocks, the 2001 Bhuj earthquake (M _w 7.7) in the Kachchh rift basin, and the 2007 and 2011 Talala earthquakes (M _w ≥ 5.0) in the Saurashtra horst. Two important seismological parameters, the frequency–magnitude relation (b-value) and the fractal correlation dimension (D _c) of the hypocenters, are estimated. The b-value and the D _c maps indicate a difference in seismic characteristics of these two tectonic regions. The average b-value in Kachchh region is 1.2 ± 0.05 and that in the Saurashtra region 0.7 ± 0.04. The average D _c in Kachchh is 2.64 ± 0.01 and in Saurashtra 2.46 ± 0.01. The hypocenters in Kachchh rift basin cluster at a depth range 20–35 km and that in Saurashtra at 5–10 km. The b-value and D _c cross sections image the seismogenic structures that shed new light on seismotectonics of these two tectonic regions. The mainshock sources at depth are identified as lower b-value or stressed zones at the fault end. Crustal heterogeneities are well reflected in the maps as well as in the cross sections. We also find a positive correlation between b- and D _c-values in both the tectonic regions.

     

Evidence for a fluid flow triggered spatio-temporal migration of seismicity in the 2001 M<Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.7 Bhuj earthquake region,Gujarat, India,during 2001–2013

We studied the variations in spatial and temporal clustering of earthquake activity (during 2001–2013) in the Kachchh seismic zone, Gujarat, India, by precisely relocating 3478 events using a joint hypocentral determination (JHD) relocation technique, and high-quality arrival times of 21032 P- and 20870 S-waves. Temporal disposition of estimated station corrections of P- and S-waves suggests that the fluid flow in the causative fault zone of the 2001 Bhuj mainshock increased during 2001–2010, while it reduced during 2011–2013, due to the healing process associated with the perturbed Kachchh fault zone. We also estimated the isotropic seismic diffusivities from epicentral growth patterns, which are found to be much lower than those observed for reservoir-induced seismicity sites in the world. Finally, we analysed the spatial and temporal evolution of this earthquake sequence by solving the diffusion equation of pore-pressure relaxation caused by co- and post-seismic stress changes associated with earthquakes. The value of the isotropic diffusivity is estimated to be 100 m²/s for the Kachchh rift zone. This gives a higher permeability (after a lapse time of 14 years from the occurrence of the 2001 Bhuj mainshock) in comparison to those observed for other intraplate regions in the world. Our results suggest that the observed spatio-temporal migration of seismicity is consistent with the shallow (meteoric water circulation at 0–10 km depths) and deeper (metamorphic fluid and volatile CO₂ circulation at 10–40 km depths) fluid flows in the permeable and fractured causative fault zone of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake.     

Postseismic relaxation due to Bhuj earthquake on January 26, 2001: possible mechanisms and processes

Earthquakes cause static stress perturbations in the nearby crust and mantle. Obeying rheological laws, this stress relaxes in a time frame of months to years with the spatial extent of few km to hundreds of km. While postseismic relaxation associated with major inter-plate earthquakes is well established, there have been few opportunities to explore its occurrence following intraplate earthquakes. The M _w 7.6 Bhuj earthquake on January 26, 2001 in western India is considered to be an intraplate event and provided a unique opportunity to examine post-earthquake relaxation processes sufficiently away from plate boundaries. To study the characteristics of transient postseismic deformation, six Global Positioning System campaigns were made at 14 sites. The postseismic transients were delineated after removing plate motions from the position time series. Postseismic deformation has been observed at all the sites in the study area. During 2001?C2007, the site closest to the epicenter exhibited postseismic deformation of about 30 and 25?mm in the north and east components, respectively. Time series of the NS and EW components of the postseismic transients can be fitted to both logarithmic and exponential functions. Close to the epicenter, the logarithmic function fits well to the initial transient, and an exponential function fits well to the later phases. The remaining sites (located east and west of the epicentral region) exhibited significantly diminished north?Csouth relaxation. Rapidly decaying afterslip and poroelastic mechanisms seem to be responsible for postseismic relaxation in the vicinity of epicenter during the initial period subsequent to the Bhuj earthquake. Postseismic relaxation by viscoelastic flow below the seismogenic zone seems to affect displacements across the entire Bhuj region. This paper presents the characteristics of postseismic transients and deformation processes in the scenario of the highly heterogeneous crust in the Bhuj region.     

The October 20, 2011 Mw 5.1 Talala earthquake in the stable continental region of India

The Talala (Sasangir) area in the Saurashtra region of Gujarat, western India, is experiencing tremors since 2001. The swarm type of earthquake activity in 2001, 2004, and every year from 2007 onward has occurred after the monsoon and lasted 2?C3?months each time. In 2007 some 200 shocks (largest M_w 5.0) and in 2011 about 400 shocks down to M1 are well recorded with 1?C2?km location error. The focal depths are about 2?C10?km and shocks are accompanied by blast-like subterranean sounds. The epicenter (21.09?N 70.45E, focal depth: 5?km from location program, 3?km from MTS) of the October 20, 2011 mainshock occurred about 12-km WNW of Talala town or 8-km SSW of the 2007?M _w 5.0 earthquake epicenter. The epicentral trends deciphered from local earthquake data indicate two ENE trends (Narmada trend) for about 50?km length and a conjugate 15-km-long NNW trend (Aravali trend). The focal mechanisms by moment-tensor analysis of full wave forms of two 2007 events of M_w 4.8 and 5.0 and the 2011 event of M_w 5.1 indicate rupture along either of the two trends. The ENE trends follow a gravity low between the gravity highs of Girnar mounts. Seismic reflections also indicate a fault in the area named Girnar Fault. Most of Saurashtra region including the Talala area is covered by Deccan Trap Basalt forming plateaus and conical ridges. There is no major fault within Saurashtra Peninsula though it is believed to have major faults along the boundaries that are non-seismic. The intensity of the October 20, 2011 Talala earthquake is estimated to be 6.5 in MM scale while isoseismals of 6, 5, and 4 and felt distance give M_w 5.1 based on Johnston??s 1994 empirical regressions. The source parameters of the 2011 Talala earthquake are estimated using data from 14 broadband seismograph stations. Estimated seismic moment, moment magnitude, stress drop, corner frequency, and source radius are found to be 10^16.6 N-m, 5.1, 1.6?MPa, 1.3?Hz, and 2,300?m, respectively. The b and p values are obtained to be low, being 0.67 and 0.71, respectively. PGA of 35?cm/sec² is noted and the decay rate of acceleration has been estimated from strong motion data recorded at 5 stations with epicentral distances ranging from 32 to 200?km.     

Estimation of seismic hazard in Gujarat region, India

The seismic hazard in the Gujarat region has been evaluated. The scenario hazard maps showing the spatial distribution of various parameters like peak ground acceleration, characteristics site frequency and spectral acceleration for different periods have been presented. These parameters have been extracted from the simulated earthquake strong ground motions. The expected damage to buildings from future large earthquakes in Gujarat region has been estimated. It has been observed that the seismic hazard of Kachchh region is more in comparison with Saurashtra and mainland. All the cities of Kachchh can expect peak acceleration in excess of 500?cm/s² at surface in case of future large earthquakes from major faults in Kachchh region. The cities of Saurashtra can expect accelerations of less than 200?cm/s² at surface. The mainland Gujarat is having the lowest seismic hazard as compared with other two regions of Gujarat. The expected accelerations are less than 50?cm/s² at most of the places. The single- and double-story buildings in Kachchh region are at highest risk as they can expect large accelerations corresponding to natural periods of such small structures. Such structures are relatively safe in mainland region. The buildings of 3?C4 stories and tall structures that exist mostly in cities of Saurashtra and mainland can expect accelerations in excess of 100?cm/s² during a large earthquake in Kachchh region. It has been found that a total of 0.11 million buildings in Rajkot taluka of Saurashtra are vulnerable to total damage. In Kachchh region, 0.37 million buildings are vulnerable. Most vulnerable talukas are Bhuj, Anjar, Rapar, Bhachau, and Mandvi in Kachchh district and Rajkot, Junagadh, Jamnagar, Surendernagar and Porbandar in Saurashtra. In mainland region, buildings in Bharuch taluka are more vulnerable due to proximity to active Narmada-Son geo-fracture. The scenario hazard maps presented in this study for moderate as well as large earthquakes in the region may be used to augment the information available in the probabilistic seismic hazard maps of the region.     

Seismic behavior in central Taiwan: Response to stress evolution following the 1999 Mw 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake

Following the 1999 M_w 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, a large amount of seismicity occurred in the Nantou region of central Taiwan. Among the seismic activities, eight M_w ⩾ 5.8 earthquakes took place following the Chi-Chi earthquake, whereas only four earthquakes with comparable magnitudes took place from 1900 to 1998. Since the seismicity rate during the Chi-Chi postseismic period has never returned to the background level, such seismicity activation cannot simply be attributed to modified Omori’s Law decay. In this work, we attempted to associate seismic activities with stress evolution. Based on our work, it appears that the spatial distribution of the consequent seismicity can be associated with increasing coseismic stress. On the contrary, the stress changes imparted by the afterslip; lower crust–upper mantle viscoelastic relaxation; and sequent events resulted in a stress drop in most of the study region. Understanding seismogenic mechanisms in terms of stress evolution would be beneficial to seismic hazard mitigation.     

Seismogenesis of the uninterrupted occurrence of the aftershock activity in the 2001 Bhuj earthquake zone, Gujarat, India, during 2001�C2010

Seismogenesis of aftershocks occurring in the Kachchh seismic zone for more than last 10?years is investigated through modeling of fractal dimensions, b-value, seismic velocities, stress inversion, and Coulomb failure stresses, using aftershock data of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake. Three-dimensional mapping of b-values, fractal dimensions, and seismic velocities clearly delineate an area of high b-, D-, and Vp/Vs ratio values at 15?C35?km depth below the main rupture zone (MRZ) of the 2001 mainshock, which is attributed to higher material heterogeneities in the vicinity of the MRZ or deep fluid enrichment due to the release of aqueous fluid/volatile CO₂ from the eclogitisation of the olivine-rich lower crustal rocks. We notice that several aftershocks are occurred near the contacts between high (mafic brittle rocks) and low velocity regions while many of the aftershocks including the 2001 Bhuj mainshock are occurred in the zones of low velocity (low dVp, low dVs and large Vp/Vs) in the 15?C35?km depth range, which are inferred to be the fractured rock matrixes filled with aqueous fluid or volatiles containing CO₂. Further support for this model comes from the presence of hydrous eclogitic layer at sub-lithospheric depths (34?C42?km). The depth-wise stress inversions using the P- and T-axes data of the focal mechanisms reveal an increase in heterogeneity (i.e., misfit) with an almost N?CS ??₁ orientation up to 30?km depth. Then, the misfit decreases to a minimum value in the 30?C40?km depth range, where a 60^o rotation in the ??₁ orientation is also noticed that can be explained in terms of the fluid enrichment in that particular layer. The modeling of Coulomb failure stress changes (??CFS) considering three tectonic faults [i.e., NWF, GF, and Allah bund fault (ABF)] and the slip distribution of the 2001 mainshock on NWF could successfully explain the occurrences of moderate size events (during 2006?C2008) in terms of increase in positive ??CFS on GF and ABF. In a nutshell, we propose that the fluid-filled mafic intrusives are acting as stress accentuators below the Kachchh seismic zone, which generate crustal earthquakes while the uninterrupted occurrence of aftershocks is triggered by stress transfer and aqueous fluid or volatile CO₂ flow mechanisms. Further, our results on the 3-D crustal seismic velocity structure, focal mechanisms, and b-value mapping will form key inputs for understanding wave propagation and earthquake hazard-related risk associated with the Kachchh basin.     

Moment Tensor Solutions of some Selected Local Events: Implications towards the Present-day Tectonics of the Kachchh Rift zone

The Kachchh rift zone of the northwestern India lies near to the India-Arabia and the India-Eurasia plate boundaries, which has experienced many devastating earthquakes in the past, namely the 1819 Allah Bund earthquake, the 1956 Anjar earthquake and the 2001 Bhuj earthquake. These earthquakes claimed the lives of about 17,000 people. To understand the current seismo-tectonic scenario, moment tensor inversion on the broadband data of fourteen Kachchh events of M_w 3.5–4.6 (during 2009–2015) from 5–12 three-component seismograph stations of the National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI), Hyderabad, India was applied. Here deviatoric moment tensor inversion of multiple point sources (10–20s) for regional (or local) earthquakes, developed by Zahradnik et al. (2005) was used. The study reveals that modeled focal mechanisms range between reverse and normal oblique strikeslip while no pure normal dip-slip mechanism is found. However, only four out of fourteen events show oblique normal faulting with a minor strike-slip component. Thus, the modeling proposed in this study suggests that the oblique-reverse strike-slip, reverse and strike-slip type focal mechanisms are found to be dominant in the Kachchh rift zone. This observation indicates that the region is presently under compression.     

Possible evidence of remotely triggered and delayed seismicity due to the 2001 Bhuj earthquake (Mw?=?7.6) in western India

Remote triggering by large earthquakes at regional distances is a globally observed phenomenon. However, there are no reports of observations of dynamic triggering at regional distances of several source lengths associated with the large Mw?=?7.6 Bhuj earthquake of January 26, 2001, in western India. In the present study, a swarm of over 140 microearthquakes that occurred about 500?km southeast of Bhuj, in the geothermal province of the Western Ghats in the Deccan volcanic province (DVP) of India, immediately after the occurrence of the Bhuj earthquake in 2001 is investigated. The post-Bhuj seismicity (M?<?2.0) occurred in three bursts spread over 2?months with each burst of intense activity lasting for 2?C3?days. All the three bursts of seismicity occurred in the same volume along a 5-km-long NW?CSE trending fault. The temporal coincidence and the sudden rise in seismicity that interrupts the characteristically low background seismicity strongly suggest that the Bhuj earthquake may have remotely triggered this activity. The triggered seismicity began approximately 2.5?h after the onset of the Bhuj mainshock and continued well after the passage of the surface waves, suggesting that the dynamic stresses possibly gave rise to secondary time-dependent mechanisms leading to the triggering. It is proposed that the triggered and delayed seismicity is possibly a consequence of the redistribution in pore fluid pressure due to the Bhuj earthquake. This is the first documented observation of remotely triggered seismicity at regional distances due to the Bhuj earthquake.     

Andean earthquakes triggered by the 2010 Maule,Chile (Mw 8.8) earthquake: Comparisons of geodetic,seismic and geologic constraints

The Maule, Chile, (M_w 8.8) earthquake on 27 February 2010 triggered deformation events over a broad area, allowing investigation of stress redistribution within the upper crust following a mega-thrust subduction event. We explore the role that the Maule earthquake may have played in triggering shallow earthquakes in northwestern Argentina and Chile. We investigate observed ground deformation associated with the M_w 6.2 (GCMT) Salta (1450 km from the Maule hypocenter, 9 h after the Maule earthquake), M_w 5.8 Catamarca (1400 km; nine days), M_w 5.1 Mendoza (350 km; between one to five days) earthquakes, as well as eight additional earthquakes without an observed geodetic signal. We use seismic and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations to characterize earthquake location, magnitude and focal mechanism, and characterize how the non-stationary, spatially correlated noise present in the geodetic imagery affects the accuracy of our parameter estimates. The focal mechanisms for the far-field Salta and Catamarca earthquakes are broadly consistent with regional late Cenozoic fault kinematics. We infer that dynamic stresses due to the passage of seismic waves associated with the Maule earthquake likely brought the Salta and Catamarca regions closer to failure but that the involved faults may have already been at a relatively advanced stage of their seismic cycle. The near-field Mendoza earthquake geometry is consistent with triggering related to positive static Coulomb stress changes due to the Maule earthquake but is also aligned with the South America-Nazca shortening direction. None of the earthquakes considered in this study require that the Maule earthquake reactivated faults in a sense that is inconsistent with their long-term behavior.     

Seismicity and source parameters of moderate earthquakes in Sikkim Himalaya

In this study, we accurately relocate 360 earthquakes in the Sikkim Himalaya through the application of the double-difference algorithm to 4?years of data accrued from a eleven-station broadband seismic network. The analysis brings out two major clusters of seismicity??one located in between the main central thrust (MCT) and the main boundary thrust (MBT) and the other in the northwest region of Sikkim that is site to the devastating Mw6.9 earthquake of September 18, 2011. Keeping in view the limitations imposed by the Nyquist frequency of our data (10?Hz), we select 9 moderate size earthquakes (5.3????Ml????4) for the estimation of source parameters. Analysis of shear wave spectra of these earthquakes yields seismic moments in the range of 7.95?×?10²¹ dyne-cm to 6.31?×?10²³ dyne-cm and corner frequencies in the range of 1.8?C6.25?Hz. Smaller seismic moments obtained in Sikkim when compared with the rest of the Himalaya vindicates the lower seismicity levels in the region. Interestingly, it is observed that most of the events having larger seismic moment occur between MBT and MCT lending credence to our observation that this is the most active portion of Sikkim Himalaya. The estimates of stress drop and source radius range from 48 to 389?bar and 0.225 to 0.781?km, respectively. Stress drops do not seem to correlate with the scalar seismic moments affirming the view that stress drop is independent over a wide moment range. While the continental collision scenario can be invoked as a reason to explain a predominance of low stress drops in the Himalayan region, those with relatively higher stress drops in Sikkim Himalaya could be attributed to their affinity with strike-slip source mechanisms. Least square regression of the scalar seismic moment (M ₀) and local magnitude (Ml) results in a relation LogM ₀?=?(1.56?±?0.05)Ml?+?(8.55?±?0.12) while that between moment magnitude (M _w ) and local magnitude as M _w ?=?(0.92?±?0.04)Ml?+?(0.14?±?0.06). These relations could serve as useful inputs for the assessment of earthquake hazard in this seismically active region of Himalaya.     

Microtremor study for evaluating the site response characteristics in the Surat City of western India

The Surat City, which is the second most populated city in the state of Gujarat in western India, warrants site-specific seismic hazard assessment due to its rapid urbanization and proximity to major seismogenic zones. This study reports results of microtremor investigations at 72 single stations and 4 arrays in an area of 325 km² spanning the city. The resonant frequencies, associated peak amplification values and liquefaction vulnerability indices were deduced from the horizontal to vertical spectral ratios. Ground amplification (A_HVSR) in the range of 3.0–5.0 was observed in the 2.0–4.0-Hz frequency band at most of the sites. A secondary A_HVSR between 2.0 and 3.0 is also observed in the 6.0–7.0-Hz frequency band at a few sites. Locales that are most susceptible to liquefaction are identified based on their vulnerability index (K _g) exceeding the value of 10. The shear wave velocities (V _s) ≥ 500 m/s inferred from array measurements occur at 38 m depth in the western part and ~16 m depth in the eastern part of city. The response spectra estimated from strong motion data recorded at an accelerograph site in Surat from three earthquakes of M _w ≥ 3.2 that occurred in Kachchh, Saurashtra and Narmada regions are in accordance with our inferences of characteristic site frequencies and amplification. Our results, in agreement with the damage scenario during the 2001 Bhuj earthquake, provide valuable inputs for site-specific seismic hazard evaluation of the Surat City.     

Tectonic structures across the East African Rift based on the source parameters of the 20 May 1990 M7.2 Sudan earthquake

Earthquakes in Kenya are common along the Kenya Rift Valley because of the slow divergent movement of the rift and hydrothermal processes in the geothermal fields. This implies slow but continuous radiation of seismic energy, which relieves stress in the subsurface rocks. On the contrary, the NW-SE trending rift/fault zones such as the Aswa-Nyangia fault zone and the Muglad-Anza-Lamu rift zone are the likely sites of major earthquakes in Kenya and the East African region. These rift/fault zones have been the sites of a number of strong earthquakes in the past such as the M _w = 7.2 southern Sudan earthquake of 20 May 1990 and aftershocks of M _w = 6.5 and 7.1 on 24 May 1990, the 1937 M _s = 6.1 earthquake north of Lake Turkana close to the Kenya-Ethiopian border, and the 1913 M _s = 6.0 Turkana earthquake, among others. Source parameters of the 20 May 1990 southern Sudan earthquake show that this earthquake consists of only one event on a fault having strike, dip, and rake of 315°, 84°, and ?3°. The fault plane is characterized by a left-lateral strike slip fault mechanism. The focal depth for this earthquake is 12.1 km, seismic moment M _o = 7.65 × 10¹⁹ Nm, and moment magnitude, M _w = 7.19 (?7.2). The fault rupture started 15 s earlier and lasted for 17 s along a fault plane having dimensions of ?60 km × 40 km. The average fault dislocation is 1.1 m, and the stress drop, ?σ, is 1.63 MPa. The distribution of historical earthquakes (M _w ≥ 5) from southern Sudan through central Kenya generally shows a NW-SE alignment of epicenters. On a local scale in Kenya, the NW–SE alignment of epicenters is characterized by earthquakes of local magnitude M _l ≤ 4.0, except the 1928 Subukia earthquake (M _s = 6.9) in central Kenya. This NW–SE alignment of epicenters is consistent with the trend of the Aswa-Nyangia Fault Zone, from southern Sudan through central Kenya and further southwards into the Indian Ocean. We therefore conclude that the NW–SE trending rift/fault zones are sites of strong earthquakes likely to pose the greatest earthquake hazard in Kenya and the East African region in general.     

Precursory seismicity rate changes prior to the large and major earthquakes along the Sagaing fault zone,Central Myanmar

In this study, the seismicity rate changes that can represent an earthquake precursor were investigated along the Sagaing Fault Zone (SFZ), Central Myanmar, using the Z value technique. After statistical improvement of the existing seismicity data (the instrumental earthquake records) by removal of the foreshocks and aftershocks and man-made seismicity changes and standardization of the reported magnitude scales, 3574 earthquake events with a M _w ≥ 4.2 reported during 1977–2015 were found to directly represent the seismotectonic activities of the SFZ. To find the characteristic parameters specifically suitable for the SFZ, seven known events of M _w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes were recognized and used for retrospective tests. As a result, utilizing the conditions of 25 fixed earthquake events considered (N) and a 2-year time window (T _w), a significantly high Z value was found to precede most of the M _w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes. Therefore, to evaluate the prospective areas of upcoming earthquakes, these conditions (N = 25 and T _w = 2) were applied with the most up-to-date seismicity data of 2010–2015. The results illustrate that the vicinity of Myitkyina and Naypyidaw (Z = 4.2–5.1) cities might be subject to strong or major earthquakes in the future.     

Magnetotelluric impedance tensor analysis for identification of transverse tectonic feature in the Wagad uplift,Kachchh, northwest India

The 2001 Bhuj earthquake (Mw 7.7) occurred in northwestern region of Indian peninsula has reactivated a couple of transverse faults to its surroundings. Intermediate to moderate magnitude earthquakes are occurring along these faults which includes recent Dholavira earthquake (Mw 5.1, 2012) suggesting distinct tectonic scenario in the region. We present the results of magnetotelluric (MT) impedance tensors analyses of 18 sites located along a profile cutting various faults in the uplifted Wagad block of the Kachchh basin. The MT time series of 4–5 days recording duration have been processed and the earth response functions are estimated in broad frequency range (0.01–1000 s). The observed impedance tensors are analyzed by using three decomposition techniques as well as by the phase tensor method constraining with the induction arrows. The analyses suggest distinct tectonic feature within the block bounded by the South Wagad Fault (SWF) and the North Wagad Fault (NWF) particularly in the period band of 1–10 s. In the south of NWF, the telluric vectors and the major axes of the phase ellipses are aligned in the NNW–SSE to NW–SE direction where as a dominant E–W strike is obtained for northern side of the NWF. The transverse geo-electric strike coincides with the prominent clustering of seismicity after the Bhuj earthquake and trend of the Manfara transverse fault is located in close vicinity of the study area. We therefore suggest the presence NNW–SSE trending transverse structural feature in the Wagad uplift of the basin appears to play significant role in the current seismicity of the active intraplate region.     

Co-seismic gravity changes in the Koyna-Warna region: Implications of mass redistribution

Koyna-Warna Region (KWR) is one of the known sites for reservoir triggered seismicity. The continued triggered seismicity over the five decades is restricted to a region of about 600–700 sq. km, which provides a unique opportunity to monitor geophysical anomalies likely to be associated with seismicity of the region. Present study confers temporal gravity changes recorded by gPhone and GRACE satellite and interprets observed changes in conjunction with seismological, geodetic (cGPS) observations and groundwater level measurements. GRACE data suggest that seasonal vertical deformation due to hydrological loading is ～ 2 cm, which corroborates with continuous GPS observations. Seasonal hydrological loading of the region, which is in a phase of reservoir loading, might be influencing the critically stressed KWR leading to the seasonal seismicity of the region. The gPhone gravity data distinctly show co-seismic gravity signals for eight earthquakes of M_w > 2 and gravity anomalies show positive correlation on a logarithmic scale with earthquake released energy. To investigate the cause of gravity changes, an estimate is made for 14^th April 2012 earthquake for M_w 4.8 using fault dislocation model. The recorded gravity changes of 189 μGal by gPhone located at a distance of 28 km from the hypocentre is much more than the estimate of ～0.1 μGal calculated for M_w 4.8 Koyna earthquake. Therefore, it is inferred that co-seismic gravity signals for eight earthquakes are primarily caused due to redistribution of mass at shallow depth.     

Estimating tsunami potential of earthquakes in the Sumatra–Andaman region based on broadband seismograms in India

In this paper, we report that the ratio of broadband energy (0.01?C2?Hz) to high-frequency energy (0.3?C2?Hz), E _r, estimated from regional seismograms of India, might be a useful parameter in estimating tsunami potential of earthquakes in the Sumatra?CAndaman region. E _r is expected to be sensitive to the depth as well as to the source characteristics of an earthquake. Since a shallow and slow earthquake has a greater tsunamigenic potential, E _r may be a useful diagnostic parameter. We base our analysis on broadband seismograms of the great earthquakes of Sumatra?CAndaman (2004, M _w?~?9.2) and Nias (2005, M _w 8.6), 41 of their aftershocks, and the earthquakes of north Sumatra (2010, M _w 7.8) and Nicobar (2010, M _w 7.4) recorded at VISK, a station located on the east coast of India. In the analysis, we also included the two recent, great strike-slip earthquakes of north Sumatra (2012, M _w 8.6, 8.2) recorded at VISK and three south Sumatra earthquakes (2007, M _w 8.5; 2007, M _w 7.9; 2010, M _w 7.8) recorded at PALK, a station in Sri Lanka. We find that E _r is a function of depth; shallower earthquakes have higher E _r values than the deeper ones. Thus, E _r may be indicative of tsunamigenic potential of an earthquake. As M _w and E _r increase so does the tsunami potential. In addition to the parameter E _r, the radiated seismic energy, E _s, may be estimated from the regional seismograms in India using empirical Green??s function technique. The technique yields reliable E _s for the great Sumatra and Nias earthquakes. E _r and E _s computed from VISK data, along with M _w and focal mechanism, may be useful in estimating tsunami potential along the east coast of India from earthquakes in the Sumatra?CAndaman region in less than ~20?min.     

Pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic displacements associated with the Bhuj 2001 earthquake derived from recent and historic geodetic data

The 26th January 2001 Bhuj earthquake occurred in the Kachchh Rift Basin which has a long history of major earthquakes. Great Triangulation Survey points (GTS) were first installed in the area in 1856–60 and some of these were measured using Global Positioning System (GPS) in the months of February and July 2001. Despite uncertainties associated with repairs and possible reconstruction of points in the past century, the re-measurements reveal pre-seismic, co-seismic and post-seismic deformation related to Bhuj earthquake. More than 25 Μ-strain contraction north of the epicenter appears to have occurred in the past 140 years corresponding to a linear convergence rate of approximately 10 mm/yr across the Rann of Kachchh. Motion of a single point at Jamnagar 150 km south of the epicenter in the 4 years prior to the earthquake, and GTS-GPS displacements in Kathiawar suggests that pre-seismic strain south of the epicenter was small and differs insignificantly from that measured elsewhere in India. Of the 20 points measured within 150 km of the epicenter, 12 were made at existing GTS points which revealed epicentral displacements of up to 1 m, and strain changes exceeding 30 Μ-strain. Observed displacements are consistent with reverse co-seismic slip. Re-measurements in July 2001 of one GTS point (Hathria) and eight new points established in February reveal post-seismic deformation consistent with continued slip on the Bhuj rupture zone.