Prediction of severe tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during 2007–2010 using high-resolution mesoscale model

In this paper, the performance of a high-resolution mesoscale model for the prediction of severe tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal during 2007?C2010 (Sidr, Nargis, Aila, and Laila) is discussed. The advanced Weather Research Forecast (WRF) modeling system (ARW core) is used with a combination of Yonsei University PBL schemes, Kain-Fritsch cumulus parameterization, and Ferrier cloud microphysics schemes for the simulations. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations are derived from global operational analysis and forecast products of the National Center for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) available at 1°lon/lat resolution. The simulation results of the extreme weather parameters such as heavy rainfall, strong wind and track of those four severe cyclones, are critically evaluated and discussed by comparing with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated values. The simulations of the cyclones reveal that the cyclone track, intensity, and time of landfall are reasonably well simulated by the model. The mean track error at the time of landfall of the cyclone is 98?km, in which the minimum error was found to be for the cyclone Nargis (22?km) and maximum error for the cyclone Laila (304?km). The landfall time of all the cyclones is also fairly simulated by the model. The distribution and intensity of rainfall are well simulated by the model as well and were comparable with the TRMM estimates.     

Track prediction of very severe cyclone ‘Nargis’ using high resolution weather research forecasting (WRF) model

The recent very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) ‘Nargis’ over the Bay of Bengal caused widespread destruction over Myanmar after hitting the coast on 2 May 2008. The real time forecasting of the VSCS ‘Nargis’ was a very difficult task as it did not follow the normal westerly/northwesterly track. In the present study, a detailed diagnostic analysis of the system ‘Nargis’ is carried out initially to investigate the features associated with this unusual movement and subsequently the real time forecast of VSCS ‘Nargis’ using high resolution advanced version weather research forecasting (WRF) model is presented. The advanced research WRF model was run for 72 h at 27 km and 20 km resolutions with 28, 29, 30 April and 1 May as the initial conditions. The diagnostic study indicates that the recurvature of the system ‘Nargis’ was mainly associated with:

Simulation of tornado over Orissa (India) on March 31, 2009, using WRF–NMM model

A severe thunderstorm produced a tornado (F3 on the Fujita-Pearson scale), which affected Rajkanika block of Kendrapara district of Orissa in the afternoon of March 31, 2009. The devastation caused by the tornado consumed 15 lives and left several injured with huge loss of property. The meteorological conditions that led to this tornado have been analyzed. An attempt is also made to simulate this rare event using Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) core of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) system with a spatial resolution of 4 km for a period of 24 h, starting at 0000 UTC of March 31, 2009. The atmospheric settings resulted from synoptic, surface, upper air, satellite and radar echo studies were favorable for the occurrence of a severe thunderstorm activity over Rajkanika. The model-simulated meteorological parameters are consistent with each other, and all are in good agreement with the observation in terms of the region of occurrence of the intense convective activity. The model has well captured the vertical motion. The core of the strongest winds is shown to be very close to the site of actual occurrence of the event. The wind speed is not in good agreement with the observation as it has shown the strongest wind of only 20 ms⁻¹, against the estimated wind speed of 70 ms⁻¹. The spatial distributions as well as intensity of rainfall rates are in good agreement with the observation as model simulated 35.4 mm against the observed rainfall of 41 mm over Chandbali. The results of these analyses demonstrated the capability of high-resolution WRF–NMM model in simulation of severe thunderstorm events.     

Forecasting of cyclone Viyaru and Phailin by NWP-based cyclone prediction system (CPS) of IMD – an evaluation

An objective NWP-based cyclone prediction system (CPS) was implemented for the operational cyclone forecasting work over the Indian seas. The method comprises of five forecast components, namely (a) Cyclone Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP), (b) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) technique for cyclone track prediction, (c) cyclone intensity prediction, (d) rapid intensification, and (e) predicting decaying intensity after the landfall. GPP is derived based on dynamical and thermodynamical parameters from the model output of IMD operational Global Forecast System. The MME technique for the cyclone track prediction is based on multiple linear regression technique. The predictor selected for the MME are forecast latitude and longitude positions of cyclone at 12-hr intervals up to 120 hours forecasts from five NWP models namely, IMD-GFS, IMD-WRF, NCEP-GFS, UKMO, and JMA. A statistical cyclone intensity prediction (SCIP) model for predicting 12 hourly cyclone intensity (up to 72 hours) is developed applying multiple linear regression technique. Various dynamical and thermodynamical parameters as predictors are derived from the model outputs of IMD operational Global Forecast System and these parameters are also used for the prediction of rapid intensification. For forecast of inland wind after the landfall of a cyclone, an empirical technique is developed. This paper briefly describes the forecast system CPS and evaluates the performance skill for two recent cyclones Viyaru (non-intensifying) and Phailin (rapid intensifying), converse in nature in terms of track and intensity formed over Bay of Bengal in 2013. The evaluation of performance shows that the GPP analysis at early stages of development of a low pressure system indicated the potential of the system for further intensification. The 12-hourly track forecast by MME, intensity forecast by SCIP model and rapid intensification forecasts are found to be consistent and very useful to the operational forecasters. The error statistics of the decay model shows that the model was able to predict the decaying intensity after landfall with reasonable accuracy. The performance statistics demonstrates the potential of the system for improving operational cyclone forecast service over the Indian seas.     

Performance evaluation of COSMO numerical weather prediction model in prediction of OCKHI: one of the rarest very severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea—a case study

Natural Hazards - In the first week of December 2017, a very severe cyclonic storm, namely “OCKHI”, made its landfall over the western coastline of the Indian peninsula. In a...     

Relationship between summer monsoon rainfall and cyclogenesis over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon (October–December) season

In this study, an attempt has been made to examine the relationship between summer monsoon rainfall (June–September) and the total number of depressions, cyclones and severe cyclones (TNDC) over Bay of Bengal during the post-monsoon (October–December) season. The seasonal rainfall of the subdivisions (located in south India) (referred as rainfall index – RI), is positively and significantly correlated (r=0.59; significant at >99% level) with the TNDC during the period, 1984–2013. By using the first differences (current season minus previous season), the correlations are enhanced and a remarkably high correlation of 0.87 is observed between TNDC and RI for the recent period, 1993–2013. The average seasonal genesis potential parameter (GPP) showed a very high correlation of 0.84 with the TNDC. A very high correlation of 0.83 is observed between GPP and RI for the period, 1993–2013. The relative vorticity and mid-tropospheric relative humidity are found to be the dominant terms in GPP. The GPP was 3.5 times higher in above (below) normal RI in which TNDC was 4 (2). It is inferred that RI is playing a key role in TNDC by modulating the environmental conditions (low level vorticity and relative humidity) over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season which could be seen from the very high correlation of 0.87 (which explains 76% variability in TNDC). For the first time, we show that RI is a precursor for the TNDC over Bay of Bengal during post-monsoon season. Strong westerlies after the SW monsoon season transport moisture over the subdivisions towards Bay of Bengal due to cyclonic circulation. This circulation favours upward motion and hence transport moisture vertically to mid-troposphere which causes convective instability and this in turn favour more number of TNDC, under above-normal RI year.     

Impact of data assimilation in simulation of thunderstorm (squall line) event over Bangladesh using WRF model,during SAARC–STORM Pilot Field Experiment 2011

Natural Hazards - A widespread thunderstorm (squall line or multicell line) occurred over Bangladesh on 11 May 2011 during 0300 UTC to 1300 UTC. A north–south oriented well-established squall...     

Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX) — A component of the Indian Climate Research Programme (ICRP)

The Indian Climate Research Programme (ICRP) focuses on the study of climate variability and its impact on agriculture. To address the role of the Bay of Bengal in monsoon variability, a process study was organised during July–August 1999, deploying research ships, buoys, INSAT, coastal radar and conventional observational systems to collect information about the coupled ocean-atmosphere system over the warm waters of the Bay of Bengal. The paper gives the background of the ICRP and the organisation and implementation of the Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX) in its field phase.     

Assessment of WRF numerical model forecasts using different lead time initializations during extreme precipitation events over Macaé city,Rio de Janeiro (Brazil)

Natural Hazards - The ability to forecast extreme precipitation events has become increasingly important over the last decades due to their significant impacts on society and properties. In this...     

Thermohaline structure and circulation in the upper layers of the southern Bay of Bengal during BOBMEX-Pilot (October–November 1998)

Hydrographic data collected on board ORV Sagar Kanya in the southern Bay of Bengal during the BOBMEX-Pilot programme (October–November 1998) have been used to describe the thermohaline structure and circulation in the upper 200 m water column of the study region. The presence of seasonal Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the study area, typically characterized with enhanced cloudiness and flanked by the respective east/northeast winds on its northern part and west/southwest winds on its southern part, has led to net surface heat loss of about 55 W/m². The sea surface dynamic topography relative to 500 db shows that the upper layer circulation is characterised by a cyclonic gyre encompassing the study area. The eastward flowing Indian Monsoon Current (IMC) between 5‡N and 7‡N in the south and its northward branching along 87‡E up to 13‡N appear to feed the cyclonic gyre. The Vessel-Mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (VM-ADCP) measured currents confirm the presence of the cyclonic gyre in the southern Bay of Bengal during the withdrawing phase of the southwest monsoon from the northern/central parts of the Bay of Bengal.     

Semi-empirical model for retrieval of soil moisture using RISAT-1 C-Band SAR data over a sub-tropical semi-arid area of Rewari district,Haryana (India)

We have estimated soil moisture (SM) by using circular horizontal polarization backscattering coefficient (\(\sigma ^{\mathrm{o}}_{\mathrm{RH}}\)), differences of circular vertical and horizontal \(\sigma ^{\mathrm{o}} \, (\sigma ^{\mathrm{o}}_{\mathrm{RV}} {-} \sigma ^{\mathrm{o}}_{\mathrm{RH}})\) from FRS-1 data of Radar Imaging Satellite (RISAT-1) and surface roughness in terms of RMS height (\({\hbox {RMS}}_{\mathrm{height}}\)). We examined the performance of FRS-1 in retrieving SM under wheat crop at tillering stage. Results revealed that it is possible to develop a good semi-empirical model (SEM) to estimate SM of the upper soil layer using RISAT-1 SAR data rather than using existing empirical model based on only single parameter, i.e., \(\sigma ^{\mathrm{o}}\). Near surface SM measurements were related to \(\sigma ^{\mathrm{o}}_{\mathrm{RH}}\), \(\sigma ^{\mathrm{o}}_{\mathrm{RV}} {-} \sigma ^{\mathrm{o}}_{\mathrm{RH}}\) derived using 5.35 GHz (C-band) image of RISAT-1 and \({\hbox {RMS}}_{\mathrm{height}}\). The roughness component derived in terms of \({\hbox {RMS}}_{\mathrm{height}}\) showed a good positive correlation with \(\sigma ^{\mathrm{o}}_{\mathrm{RV}} {-} \sigma ^{\mathrm{o}}_{\mathrm{RH}} \, (R^{2} = 0.65)\). By considering all the major influencing factors (\(\sigma ^{\mathrm{o}}_{\mathrm{RH}}\), \(\sigma ^{\mathrm{o}}_{\mathrm{RV}} {-} \sigma ^{\mathrm{o}}_{\mathrm{RH}}\), and \({\hbox {RMS}}_{\mathrm{height}}\)), an SEM was developed where SM (volumetric) predicted values depend on \(\sigma ^{\mathrm{o}}_{\mathrm{RH}}\), \(\sigma ^{\mathrm{o}}_{\mathrm{RV}} {-} \sigma ^{\mathrm{o}}_{\mathrm{RH}}\), and \({\hbox {RMS}}_{\mathrm{height}}\). This SEM showed \(R^{2}\) of 0.87 and adjusted \(R^{2}\) of 0.85, multiple R=0.94 and with standard error of 0.05 at 95% confidence level. Validation of the SM derived from semi-empirical model with observed measurement (\({\hbox {SM}}_{\mathrm{Observed}}\)) showed root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.06, relative-RMSE (R-RMSE) = 0.18, mean absolute error (MAE) = 0.04, normalized RMSE (NRMSE) = 0.17, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) = 0.91 (\({\approx } 1\)), index of agreement (d) = 1, coefficient of determination \((R^{2}) = 0.87\), mean bias error (MBE) = 0.04, standard error of estimate (SEE) = 0.10, volume error (VE) = 0.15, variance of the distribution of differences \(({\hbox {S}}_{\mathrm{d}}^{2}) = 0.004\). The developed SEM showed better performance in estimating SM than Topp empirical model which is based only on \(\sigma ^{\mathrm{o}}\). By using the developed SEM, top soil SM can be estimated with low mean absolute percent error (MAPE) = 1.39 and can be used for operational applications.     

Diurnal variability of upper ocean temperature and heat budget in the southern Bay of Bengal during October–November, 1998 (BOBMEX-Pilot)

Time-series data on upper-ocean temperature, Vessel-Mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (VM-ADCP) measured currents and surface meteorological parameters have been obtained for the first time in the southern Bay of Bengal at 7‡N, 10‡N, and 13‡N locations along 87‡E during October–November, 1998 under BOBMEX-Pilot programme. These data have been analysed to examine the diurnal variability of upper oceanic heat budget and to estimate the eddy diffusivity coefficient of heat in the upper layer. Diurnal variation of near-surface temperature is typical at northern location (13‡N) with a range of 0.5‡C while the diurnal range of temperature is enhanced to 0.8‡C at the central location (10‡N) due to intense solar radiation (1050 W/m²), clear skies and low wind speeds. At the southern location (7‡N), the diurnal variation of temperature is atypical with the minimum temperature occurring at 2000 hrs instead of at early morning hours. In general, the diurnal curve of temperature penetrated up to 15 to 20 m with decreasing diurnal range with depth. The VM-ADCP measured horizontal currents in the upper ocean were predominantly easterly/northeasterly at southern location, north/northerly at central location and northwesterly at northern location, thus describing a large-scale cyclonic gyre with the northward meridional flow along 87‡E. The magnitudes of heat loss at the surface due to air-sea heat exchanges and in the upper 50 m layer due to vertical diffusion of heat are highest at the southern location where intense convective activity followed by overcast skies and synoptic disturbance prevailed in the lower atmosphere. This and the estimated higher value (0.0235 m²/s) of eddy diffusivity coefficient of heat in the upper ocean (0–50 m depth) suggest that 1-D processes controlled the upper layer heat budget at the southern location. On the other hand, during the fair weather conditions, at the central and northern locations, the upper layer gained heat energy, while the sea surface lost (gained) heat energy at northern (central) location. This and lower values of eddy diffusivity coefficient of heat (0.0045 and 0.0150 m²/s) and the northward intensification of horizontal currents at these locations suggest the greater role of horizontal heat advection over the 1-D processes in the upper ocean heat budget at these two locations.     

Understanding the evolution of a disaster��a Framework for Assessing Crisis in a System Environment (FACSE)

To understand the evolution of a disaster, we propose a Framework for Assessing Crisis in a System Environment (FACSE). FACSE is set in a multi-system environment, containing the human system as well as the various natural and technological systems that interact with people. We take a lifecycle perspective, via which we quantify rhythms of life exhibited in multiple systems, across different scales, at different times. The lifecycle perspective also implies a relative approach in that rhythms of life during time t can be compared against those during t-1. We illustrate how rhythms of life in the human system can be measured at different scales. We propose a new concept??the degree of disaster, which is a composite score that encompasses the various measurements of rhythms of life from multiple systems, across different scales. We conclude the paper by discussing the potential offered by FACSE in disaster research as well as the limitations.     

Delineation of the porphyry-skarn mineralized zones (NW Turkey) using concentration–volume fractal model

This study is carried out for delineation of the Tepeoba porphyry-skarn Cu-Mo ± Au mineralized zones at the Biga peninsula (NW Turkey) using the concentration–volume (C–V) fractal model. The power-law C–V relationships of Cu, Mo, and Au reveal five mineralized zones of Cu, three zones of Mo, and five zones for gold in the Tepeoba deposit. The main phase of the mineralization has average ore grades of 0.257% Cu, 0.357% Mo and 5.3083 ppm Au. Cu–Mo sulfide-rich hypogene ore zone overlain by mineralized oxidation zone are encompassed by three main alteration types, which are represented by biotite ± muscovite-K-feldspar, actinolite-albite and outer chlorite-epidote-calcite mineral associations occurring within the porphyritic microgranite and hornfels in the mine area. The delineated mineralization trend, based on the C–V fractal model, suggested that Cu and Mo enrichment zones were controlled by the same geochemical processes in the deposit due to their similar trends with the C–V log-log plot. Cu and Mo occurred mainly within the breccia zones along with stockwork veining at the contact between the hornfels and the biotite (±muscovite)-K-feldspar-altered Eybek microgranite. The main mineralization zone of Au developed in the oxidation zone due to of supergene enrichment processes.     

Public perceptions on coastal erosion in the Maltese Islands: a case study of St George’s Bay (St Julians) and Pretty Bay (Birżebbuġa)

With 60% of the world’s population living within the coastal zone, coastal erosion is considered as a global problem. The coasts of the Maltese Islands hold a variety of formations resulting from coastal erosion. Beach nourishment is one of the protective measures taken against coastal erosion. This paper focuses on two of the nourished beaches within the Maltese Islands, St George’s Bay (St Julians) and Pretty Bay (Birżebbuġa), that have undergone extensive sand augmentation during the past decades and looks at the extent of how coastal erosion and beach replenishment may have influenced public perception. Through a triangulation of interviews, it seeks to understand the views of beach users, researchers, representatives, and beach managers. It presents divergences in interviewee opinions and ideas on St George’s Bay and Pretty Bay and illustrates that public perception tends to reflect the type of urban area surrounding each replenished beach. Recommendations and suggestions are also presented to promote awareness towards coastal processes and their impacts.

     

Constructing a social vulnerability index to earthquake hazards using a hybrid factor analysis and analytic network process (F’ANP) model

Iran is a seismic prone country and has been host to a long series of devastating earthquakes which have resulted in heavy casualties and damages. In order to assess social vulnerability (SV) to earthquake hazards, this paper presents the development of a hybrid factor analysis and analytic network process model for aggregating vulnerability indicators into a composite index of SV to earthquake hazards. The proposed model is then applied in Iran as a case study. The proposed model uses factor analysis (FA) to extract the underlying dimensions of SV. The identified dimensions of SV and their primary variables are then entered into a network model in Analytic Network Process (ANP). The ANP is used to calculate the relative importance of different SV variables, taking into consideration the results obtained from FA and the possible interdependence between variables of the individual dimensions of SV. These weights are then used to compute the factor scores for the individual dimensions of SV and also the composite social vulnerability index (SOVI). The application of the proposed model to a real world case study and its validation show that it is a robust approach for constructing a composite SOVI. Its application to counties in Iran indicates that there exist severe regional differences in terms of SV to earthquake hazards. The pronounced regional variations in SV warrant special attention by both local authorities and the national government to reconsider current natural disaster management strategies.     

Characterization of a karstic aquifer using magnetic resonance sounding and electrical resistivity tomography: a case-study of Esta?a Lakes (northern Spain)

The geophysical characterization of a previously unstudied endorheic karstic system is presented. The studied area, known as the Esta?a Lakes, is located in the Pyrenean Marginal Sierras, northern Spain. The Esta?a Lakes are a set of natural water ponds on a bedrock of Triassic evaporites, lutites and carbonates. This wetland is included in the Natura 2000 European network of nature protection areas as a “Site of Community Importance”. Two geophysical techniques were used, magnetic resonance sounding (MRS) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), to map the subsurface geology and characterize the aquifer layers and the hydraulic links between the aquifers and lakes. The geophysical data were integrated with the surface geology and data from six boreholes. Ten electrical profiles were performed to identify the thickness of the units and lithological changes, whereas the MRS was used to determine the top of the saturated zone. As result, the aquifer in the Esta?a Lakes system and surrounding area has been identified as Middle Triassic carbonates, which does not correspond with the regional aquifer in the area (Upper Cretaceous and Eocene). This work shows the power of geophysical methods in poorly understood and tectonically complex areas in addition to the standard aquifer tests to evaluate hydraulic properties.     

Identification of geochemical anomalies by using of number–size (N–S) fractal model in Bardaskan area, NE Iran

Geochemical anomaly separation and identification using the number–size (N–S) model at Bardaskan area, NE Iran is studied in this paper. Lithogeochemical data were used in this study which was conducted for the exploration for Au and Cu mineralization and enrichments in Bardaskan area. There are two major mineralization phases concluded epithermal gold and a disseminated systems. N–S log–log plots for Cu, Au, Sb, and As illustrated multifractal natures. Several anomalies at local scale were identified for Au (32 ppb), Cu (28 ppm), As (11 ppm), and Sb (0.8 ppm) and the obtained results suggest existence of local Au and Cu anomalies whose magnitudes generally are above 158 and 354 ppm, respectively. The most important mineralization events are responsible for presence of Au and Cu at grades above 1,778 and 8,912 ppm. The study reveals threshold values for Au and Cu are a consequence of the occurrence of anomalous accumulations of phyllic and silicification alteration zones and metamorphic rocks especially in tuffaceous sandstones and sericite schist types. The obtained results were correlated with fault distribution patterns, revealing a positive direct correlation between mineralization in anomalous areas and the faults present in the mineralized system.