中国石化原油多元化国际投资战略研究

2010年我国进口原油2．39亿吨,原油对外依存度已经超过55％。截至2010年,三大石油公司的海外业务已遍及全球50多个国家和地区。中国石化海外原油产量从2008年的901万吨增长到2009年的1700万吨。在当前“走出去”的大环境下,为保证我国的能源安全,中国石化也在积极寻求海外油源多元化投资。中国石化海外油源投资应主要关注石油储量和产量排名前三十名的国家,包括亚太国家7个,非洲国家6个,中东国家7个,欧洲和西半球国家10个。根据政治、储量、技术、经济和环保五类风险的分析结果,优选地区排序依次为中东、非洲、南美、亚太和中亚。在海外油源国投资时,针对政治、经济、管理、技术和自然环境风险,应采取与当地国际石油公司加强合作、认真分析当地法律政策、进行资产管理分散风险、加大科技研发投入、加强安全培训等方法。中国石化在未来油源国际化投资的发展战略中,应加大上游投入,发挥自身优势与国际石油公司合作共赢,并且在国际上游投资难度不断加大的情况下,大胆采取与境外公司并购的方式获取油源。     

Vulnerability to impacts of climate change on marine fisheries and food security

Assessment of fisheries vulnerability to climate change is an important step for enhancing the understanding and decision-making to reduce such vulnerability. This study aimed to provide an analysis of country level vulnerability focusing on food security implications of climatic disturbances on marine fisheries. The comparative magnitude and distribution of potential food security impacts of climatic disturbances on marine fisheries were assessed for 109 countries by scoring and ranking countries against a set of vulnerability criteria including metrics of national exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, highlighting the contribution of marine fisheries to national food and nutrition security. Results showed that developing countries in Africa, Asia, Oceania, and Latin America appeared to be most vulnerable, and the key sources of vulnerability differed considerably among the countries. For countries most vulnerable to climate-induced effects on marine fisheries, more than two-thirds of them depended on domestic marine fisheries as a main source of fish supply. Developing appropriate adaptation policies and management plans to reduce the impacts of changing climate is of great importance to sustain food security in these highly vulnerable and heavy marine fisheries-dependent countries.     

Pathways of integrated coastal management from national policy to local implementation: Enabling climate change adaptation

Integrated coastal management (ICM) has been developing concomitantly with the realisation of the severity of the potential impacts of climate change. The discourse on climate change and adaptation has also included the awareness that adaptation must take place at all levels of government, particularly local government. Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on the physical, social, environmental and economic environments of coastal cities and towns, and in particular on the poor and vulnerable communities within these cities and towns. The crucial role that local government can play in climate protection and building cities' and communities' resilience to climate change is widely recognised at the global level. This paper explores the legal and policy connexion between ICM, local government and climate change in Mozambique and South Africa, two developing countries in Africa. The state of institutionalisation of coastal management at national through to local government is also examined. The authors contend that the state, character and maturity of the ICM policy domain can create an enabling environment within which local government agencies can prepare for future impacts of climate change. Conversely it can also limit, delay and hinder climate change adaptation. The paper concludes with the identification of some key success factors for assessing the effectiveness of the existing policy and legal frameworks to respond to the challenges of climate change. It also identifies some key principles to be included in future legislative reform to promote ICM, cooperative governance and greater preparedness for climate change at local government level.     

Forecasting the consequences of climate-driven shifts in human behavior on cetaceans

While climate change is expected to affect cetaceans primarily via loss of habitat and changes in prey availability, additional consequences may result from climate-driven shifts in human behaviors and economic activities. For example, increases in shipping, oil and gas exploration and fishing due to the loss of Arctic sea ice are highly likely to exacerbate acoustic disturbance, ship strikes, bycatch and prey depletion for Arctic cetaceans. In the tropics, climate change may result in increased hunting pressure on near-shore dolphins and whales off Asia, Latin America, Africa, and elsewhere as the availability of other marine resources diminishes. This study explores the range of potential consequences to cetaceans worldwide from predicted climate-driven shifts in human behavior, and evaluates the risks to particular species given their geographic ranges and habitat preferences. While concern about impacts of climate change on cetaceans has largely focused on polar species, the analysis presented here suggests tropical coastal and riverine cetaceans such as the Irawaddy dolphin, Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin, and finless porpoise are particularly vulnerable to those aspects of climate change that are mediated by changes in human behavior. Policy recommendations include the following: (1) information about cetacean populations should be incorporated into national, regional and international climate adaptation decisions wherever possible (for example, via GEF-sponsored adaptation initiatives); and (2) human-mediated impacts of climate change should be included in cetacean conservation and management plans, such as the management procedures of the International Whaling Commission (IWC), where possible. Because human responses to climate change are likely to evolve rapidly over the coming years and decades, it is important that local, regional and international cetacean conservation and management plans include regular reviews to allow them to adapt to new information.     

Vulnerability and adaptation of coastal communities to climate variability and sea-level rise: Their implications for integrated coastal management in Cavite City,Philippines

Coastal areas are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise. These impacts will exacerbate the risks posed by the continuing environmental degradation confronting the coastal communities.Adopting a participatory research approach, the study examines the vulnerability of socioeconomic groups among the coastal population in Cavite City, Philippines, their current adaptation strategies and their adaptive capacity to cope with the impacts of climate variability and extremes and sea-level rise. Under a future scenario of a 1-m accelerated sea-level rise (ASLR), the study also looks into its potential effects on these urban coastal communities and ecosystems.In the context of poverty reduction and sustainable development, this study suggests a local framework for integrating adaptation strategies and actions into integrated coastal management (ICM) planning. It also recommends appropriate policy and institutional reform, capacity building and improved knowledge management towards increasing the resilience and adaptive capacity of these coastal communities to current and future climate risks.     

Towards climate adaptation and coastal governance in Ireland: Integrated architecture for effective management?

Coastal environments are susceptible to a range of impacts arising from medium and long-term climate change. However, as Ireland's population and industrial centres are concentrated in coastal locations, Ireland's coastal communities will be particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Therefore, making the best use of existing knowledge to inform the establishment of governance structures capable of facilitating the measures and actions which may soon be required is a national imperative. Coastal communities worldwide have turned to integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) as a process to deliver sustainable development. This paper explores how experience gained from ICZM implementation can be harnessed to inform the development and implementation of climate adaptation policies, with a particular focus on the coastal zone. Using the principles and conceptual basis of Earth System Governance – an emerging approach to analyse complexity of governance under global environmental change – the paper maps the architecture of ICZM and climate governance in Ireland. The research identifies the main barriers to, and opportunities for, integrated application of the two policy domains. Barriers include the fragmentation of governance structures and responsibilities of key stakeholders, a lack of coordinated support for ICZM implementation at the national level, and a relatively weak awareness of the specifics of adaptation at the local level. Opportunities include the availability of expertise gathered from phases of ICZM implementation in Ireland, which encompasses mechanisms for science-policy integration, and invaluable experience of stakeholder participation and interaction. Current political and scientific support at national and EU levels give an additional impetus to climate research and actions which may bring additional opportunities and resources to coastal governance in Ireland.     

Situation of integrated coastal zone management in Central America: Experiences of the IUCN wetlands and coastal zone conservation program

Central American coastal zones possess extensive scenic and geographical wealth as well as great biological diversity. These coasts maintain 21.6% of the region’s population and produce at least US$ 750 million alone in fishing activities that provide work and sustenance for more than 450 000 persons in the region. Eight percent of the world’s mangroves are located in Central America, as well as the second largest corral reef barrier on the planet. A good representation of the region’s natural heritage is conserved in approximately 110 protected areas. Due to these special conditions, at least 50% of Central America’s coastal zones is devoted to tourism, one of the three primary economic activities in four of the region’s countries. Integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) in this region has been limited by information gaps, restricted technical and financial capacity, and strong sectoralism. Some recent projects, both governmental and supported by NGOs, offer new experience and lessons on regional ICZM. These initiatives have been backed at the ministerial and presidential level by a large number of political agreements within the framework of the ‘alliance for sustainable development’ (ALIDES).     

Assessing climate change impacts on coastal infrastructure in the Eastern Caribbean

Expected effects of changes in global climate include warmer temperatures, rising sea levels, and potentially more frequent and severe extreme weather events such as hurricanes and tropical storms. Low-lying states in the Caribbean are especially vulnerable to these effects, posing significant risks to public safety and natural resources.This paper highlights expected trends in the Eastern Caribbean and examines the impacts of urbanization and supporting infrastructure, siting of major structures in high-hazard areas, and negative land-use practices on fragile coastal ecosystems. It focuses on the need to reduce the vulnerability of coastal infrastructure and land uses, arguing for effective linkages between climate change issues and development planning. The paper also provides general recommendations and identifies challenges for the incorporation of climate change impacts and risk assessment into long-term land-use national development plans and strategies.     

Sediment Load of Asian Rivers flowing into the Oceans and their Regional Variation

Study of the major Asian rivers discharge to the ocean reveals variations of their water discharges and sediment loads.and local characteristics of river sediment concentrations.On the basis of this,the Asian rivers fall into three regions,including Eurasia Arctic,East Asia,Southeast and South Asia Regions.The Eurasia Arctic Region is characterized by the lowest sediment concentration and load,while the East Asia Region is of the highest sediment concentration and higher sediment load,and the South-East and South Asia Region yields Higher Sediment concentration and highest sediment load. The sediment loads of these regions are mainly controlled by climate,geomorphology and tectonic activity.The Eurasia Arctc rivers with large basin areas and water discharge,drain low relief which consists of tundra sediment,thus causing the lowest sediment load.The East Asia rivers with small basin areas and lowest water discharges,drain extensive loess plateau,and transport most erodible loess material,which results in highest sediment concentration.The SE and South Asia rivers originating from the Tibet Plateau have large basin areas and the largest water discharges because of the Summer Monsoon and high rainfall influence,causing the highest sediment load.In Asia,tectonic motion of the Tibet Plateau Plays an important role.Those large rivers originating from the Tibet Plateau trasport about 50% of the world river sediment load to ocean annually,forming large estuaries and deltas,and consequently exerting a great influence on sedimentation in the coastal zone and shelves.     

Evidence of deep genetic divergence between populations of an important recreational fishery species,Lichia amia L. 1758, around southern Africa

Lichia amia is an important coastal recreational fishery species with a cosmopolitan distribution in the eastern Atlantic. In southern Africa, it is distributed from southern Angola to northern KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa. A recent biological survey revealed differences between Angolan and South African individuals suggesting that they may represent separate stocks. As fishery management decisions should be based on accurate knowledge of population structure, an initial survey of the genetic substructuring of L. amia was conducted on samples collected in southern Angola and South Africa. Assessment of genetic diversity and population structure was conducted using a fragment of the mitochondrial Control Region. Obtained genetic diversity levels were within the expected range for marine teleosts (h = 0.867, π = 0.007), and two deeply divergent (southern Angolan and South African) populations were identified (average φ _ST = 0.78) across the Benguela Current system. These results suggest that Angolan and South African L. amia should be managed as two independent stocks. This work represents the first assessment of population genetic substructuring across the Benguela Current of a valuable coastal fishery resource, and has application for future fisheries management.     

西非海岸盆地群油气勘探成果及勘探潜力分析

西非海岸盆地群包括塔尔法亚、塞内加尔、尼日尔三角洲、杜阿拉、里奥姆尼、加蓬、下刚果、宽扎、奥兰治、科特迪瓦、贝宁等11个主要沉积盆地,它们是冈瓦纳大陆裂解和中大西洋、南大西洋及赤道大西洋张开和漂移的结果,包括被动大陆边缘盆地和转换边缘盆地两种类型沉积盆地。通过利用IHS数据库资料,在系统总结西非海岸盆地群油气勘探成果基础上,划分其为早期勘探（1953年前）、储量快速增长（1954～1973年）、储量缓慢增长（1974～1994年）和深水勘探（1995年至今）四个油气勘探阶段,认为研究区油气发现主要与盆地勘探程度、油气勘探技术进步、资源国政治形势和全球经济有关;尼日尔三角洲和下刚果等重点盆地大油气田的发现直接推动了西非海岸盆地群油气储量和产量的增长;深水区是西非海岸盆地群今后寻找大发现的潜力区,而大陆架和陆上则是重点挖潜地区。     

东亚海区的海岸带综合管理经验:从地方性示范到区域性合作

本文阐述了东亚海区海岸带综合管理实践如何从地方性的示范发展到区域性的合作管理框架，如何实现海洋和海岸带资源的可持续利用．文中着重突出了厦门市政府在维持环境保护和经济发展的平衡，启动和实施海岸带综合管理，以及与沿海国在国际合作方面的经验，总结了厦门实施海岸带综合管理的主要经验，包括多部门间综合协调机制、海岸带综合管理法律框架、科技支撑体系的建立，海洋功能区划、环境剖面和战略环境管理计划的制定，以及实现海上联合执法等等．同时阐述了东亚海域环境管理区域合作计划（PEMSEA）与澳大利亚合作伙伴之间的关系在推动沿海城市的国际合作中将起到的作用．     

Confronting coastal poverty: Building sustainable coastal livelihoods in South Africa

This is the second of two articles exploring coastal management in South Africa. It focuses on the adoption of the Sustainable Livelihoods approach that has underpinned recent policy implementation efforts. This approach complements prevailing coastal management thinking and practice by focusing attention on the strategies that poor people use to access coastal resources, mediated by governance institutions and social relations, in the pursuit of desired livelihood outcomes. South Africa's efforts to adopt this approach help to better understand coastal livelihood opportunities and challenges, identify priority interventions for improving livelihood prospects, and reveal imperatives for building sustainable coastal livelihoods.     

Primary production in the eastern tropical Pacific: A review

The eastern tropical Pacific includes 28 million km² of ocean between 23.5°N and S and Central/South America and 140°W, and contains the eastern and equatorial branches of the north and South Pacific subtropical gyres plus two equatorial and two coastal countercurrents. Spatial patterns of primary production are in general determined by supply of macronutrients (nitrate, phosphate) from below the thermocline. Where the thermocline is shallow and intersects the lighted euphotic zone, biological production is enhanced. In the eastern tropical Pacific thermocline depth is controlled by three interrelated processes: a basin-scale east/west thermocline tilt, a basin-scale thermocline shoaling at the gyre margins, and local wind-driven upwelling. These processes regulate supply of nutrient-rich subsurface waters to the euphotic zone, and on their basis we have divided the eastern tropical Pacific into seven main regions. Primary production and its physical and chemical controls are described for each.Enhanced rates of macronutrient supply maintains levels of primary production in the eastern tropical Pacific above those of the oligotrophic subtropical gyres to the north and south. On the other hand lack of the micronutrient iron limits phytoplankton growth (and nitrogen fixation) over large portions of the open-ocean eastern tropical Pacific, depressing rates of primary production and resulting in the so-called high nitrate-low chlorophyll condition. Very high rates of primary production can occur in those coastal areas where both macronutrients and iron are supplied in abundance to surface waters. In these eutrophic coastal areas large phytoplankton cells dominate; conversely, in the open-ocean small cells are dominant. In a ‘shadow zone’ between the subtropical gyres with limited subsurface ventilation, enough production sinks and decays to produce anoxic and denitrified waters which spread beneath very large parts of the eastern tropical Pacific.Seasonal cycles are weak over much of the open-ocean eastern tropical Pacific, although several eutrophic coastal areas do exhibit substantial seasonality. The ENSO fluctuation, however, is an exceedingly important source of interannual variability in this region. El Niño in general results in a depressed thermocline and thus reduced rates of macronutrient supply and primary production. The multi-decadal PDO is likely also an important source of variability, with the ‘El Viejo’ phase of the PDO resulting in warmer and lower nutrient and productivity conditions similar to El Niño.On average the eastern tropical Pacific is moderately productive and, relative to Pacific and global means, its productivity and area are roughly equivalent. For example, it occupies about 18% of the Pacific Ocean by area and accounts for 22–23% of its productivity. Similarly, it occupies about 9% of the global ocean and accounts for 10% of its productivity. While representative, these average values obscure very substantial spatial and temporal variability that characterizes the dynamics of this tropical ocean.     

Global extent and distribution of artificial, residential waterways in estuaries

Artificial residential waterways are now widespread in the world’s estuaries. We used the global mapping tool, Google Earth, to determine that there are nearly 4000 linear km of artificial waterways globally, covering an area of 270 km². Residential waterways constructed as open, flow-through canal estates are at their greatest extent in North America (77% of global linear extent), where systems are typically longer and narrower, with more openings and dead-ends than systems elsewhere. The remaining canal estates are spread across all other continents except Antarctica: Asia (7%), Europe (7%), Oceania (7%), South America (0.9%), and Africa (0.6%). A relatively recent design change from open canals to artificial estuarine lakes with tidal barriers has occurred on all continents except Africa, most extensively in Australia (14 km² area, 57 independent systems). The extremely large expansion in artificial residential waterways aimed at increasing opportunities for waterfront living by humans has also modified and expanded estuarine habitat available to aquatic biota. Research can best underpin planning and management of these types of waterways by focussing on their value as habitat and their provision of other goods and services.     

Genetic diversity and population connectivity of the sea urchin Tripneustes gratilla along the South African coast

The collector sea urchin Tripneustes gratilla has been identified as a species with potential for aquaculture production in South Africa. The species’ roe is considered a culinary delicacy in Asia and Europe. However, T. gratilla remains genetically uncharacterised in South Africa. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to provide baseline genetic information consisting of estimates of genetic diversity and population stratification, which may aid in future sustainable use of this urchin resource. A total of 22 species-specific microsatellite markers were used for the genetic characterisation of T. gratilla samples from along the South African coast, at Haga Haga, Coffee Bay, Hibberdene, Ballito Bay and Sodwana Bay. A moderate level of genetic diversity was observed, with an average number of alleles of 7.89 and an average effective number of alleles of 6.57, as well as an average observed heterozygosity of 0.55. Population differentiation tests suggest that the geographically representative samples form part of a single, large interbreeding population, with a global F_st estimate of 0.02 (p > 0.05). This finding is likely explained by high levels of gene flow between these locations caused by extensive larval dispersal during the planktonic larval stage. The panmixia observed within these natural populations of T. gratilla indicate that they could be managed as a single genetic stock.     

Mapping Vulnerability and Risk of Ghana's Coastline to Sea Level Rise

Coastal erosion and flooding are major threats to coastal dwellers, and the situation is predicted to worsen as a result of the impacts of climate change and associated sea level rise. In order to identify the level of vulnerability of various sections of Ghana's coastline for planning and future hazard management, a coastal vulnerability index approach was adopted for the creation of the relative vulnerability map. The coastal vulnerability variables used include geomorphology, coastal elevation, geology, local subsidence, sea level rise, shoreline change rates, mean tidal range, mean wave height and population density of the coastal areas. Risk factors were assigned to the various variables, and all the factors were combined to calculate the coastal vulnerability for the coastal front of each administrative district along the coast. The outcome was used to produce a vulnerability index map of coastal districts in Ghana. The results revealed that parts of the central coast and the eastern coasts of Ghana were the most vulnerable. It was identified that about 50% of the 540km shoreline of Ghana is vulnerable. This assessment will facilitate the long-term adaptation planning and hazard mitigation to inform the management of Ghana's coast.     

基于完整目录数据的全球海啸时空分异研究

海啸是自然灾害中对人类生命财产安全有严重威胁的灾难之一。随着全球气候变化和全球化贸易日益增强,越来越多的人口和经济暴露于海啸灾害。历史海啸灾害的时空分异分析可以帮助我们认识海啸灾害的演变规律,为灾害预警、灾害防控等提供有益参考。本文通过提取具有完整性和同质性的数据（爬高高度（RH））进行全球海啸的时空分异规律研究,结果表明:（1）对于0.1 m≤RH<0.5 m、0.5 m≤RH<1 m、1 m≤RH<5 m、5 m≤RH<10 m、10 m≤RH<20 m和20 m≤RH的间隔,海啸目录分别自1963年、1940年、1950年、1946年、1922年和1885年以来可以被认为是完整的;（2）全球海啸发生有一定的增加趋势,大约每年会多观测到7次波浪爬高事件。在0.1 m≤RH<5 m区间内,海啸发生呈现一定的周期性。当RH大于5 m时,表现出明显的增加趋势;（3）西北太平洋区域、南太平洋区域、东南太平洋区域、印度洋区域海啸发生有一定的增加趋势,而在北美区域则呈减少趋势,东北大西洋区域无显著变化;（4）除北美区域外,其他区域的海啸发生遵循一定的自组织临界行为,相比来说,东北大西洋区域更容易发生小的海啸事件,而西北太平洋区域和印度洋区域更容易发生各种强度的海啸事件。     

文登区浅层地下水化学演化与海水入侵研究

作者采用水化学演化图(hydrochemical facies evolution diagram,HFE-D)和海水入侵地下水质量指数(GQISWI)对山东威海文登区地下水的化学演化和海水入侵情况进行了分析.Piper图的结果表明文登区从北到南地下水的化学组成分别是Ca-HCO3、Ca-Mg-Cl、Na-Cl.HFE...     

Submarine groundwater discharge: an outlook of recent advances and current knowledge

Driven by the hydraulic gradient, terrestrial groundwater can be discharged directly into the coastal ocean where heads are above sea level, a phenomenon known as submarine groundwater discharge (SGD). Although long overlooked, in recent years SGD has received increasing attention due largely to its potential importance in the transport of chemical constituents to the sea. Indeed, SGD occurrence and control mechanisms are still poorly understood. Submarine discharge often represents only a minor component of regional total water budgets, but because estimated fluxes are highly variable and quantification remains challenging, the process deserves to be carefully evaluated when investigating marine ecosystems and/or the safety of geological repositories in coastal areas, notably for the underground storage of CO₂. In view of the focus the topic is gaining, reflected in the large amount of information continuously being published in this field, here we present a selected review of our current knowledge of key mechanisms determining submarine groundwater discharge, and an updated compilation of most recent advances in research both in Japan and other regions of the world. In addition, we identify some potential pitfalls that need to be borne in mind in future work on SGD. Particularly in view of globally increasing urbanization and climate change, this contribution should prove useful also to local governmental authorities and scientists involved in groundwater coastal ecosystem management.