Improving Numerical Weather Prediction in Low Latitudes by Optimizing Diffusion Coefficients

The horizontal diffusion coefficients of the operational model (T42L9) in numerical weather prediction are optimized by the steepest descent search of multi-dimensional optimization. In order to improve prediction accuracy in low latitudes, the optimum horizontal diffusion coefficients are chosen, with changing variation of the basic diffusion coefficient with the passage of time, and later forecasts are also made better. In view of the averages of forecast verifications of 9 cases, the forecasts with optimum diffusion coefficients are an improvement on operational forecasts. It means that the forecasts are got much better with optimum values of some important parameters by optimization in numerical weather prediction.     

用非线性分类筛选模式做短期气候预测的尝试

在相关普查的基础上,使用最优分割挑选因子,逐步对预报量进行分类,按照业务预报的需求,形成分类预报模式,取得了较好的试报、预报效果。     

海雾历史检索数据库的设计和实现

针对我国海雾预报业务及科研需求,收集整理了中国近海最近10年海雾个例数据,开发了海雾个例数据库系统,实现了国家、省、市级预报员和科研人员对海雾个例相关数据的实时调阅和打包下载。系统提供不同检索条件的多功能查询和海雾个例的实时查阅以及历史数据、卫星监测产品等资料的下载功能。为预报员更有效地开展实时预报提供了便捷参考,也为科研人员从事海雾研究提供了详细和全面的观测数据和分析产品支撑。     

基于遗传算法与模式搜索的混合优化算法

为了更好地实现全局优化,提出一种遗传模式搜索(Genetic Pattern Search,GPS)算法,该算法结合了遗传算法(GA)的强全局搜索能力与泛化模式搜索算法(PS)的强局部搜索能力.算法流程分为两步:首先是GA与PS联合实现粗搜索;其次是PS实现细搜索.实验对Hump、Powell、Rosenbrock、Schaffer、Woods测试函数进行搜索,表明GPS算法的成功率明显优于改进遗传算法与改进模式搜索算法,可作为一种有效可行的全局优化算法.     

Is an Observed Wind-Speed Dependence of Amtex ’75 Heat-Transfer Coefficients Real?

An extensive set of direct eddy flux measurements over the ocean in conditions of strong cold air advection during AMTEX ’75 yield surface-layer sensible heat-transfer coefficients which, like the drag coefficients but unlike latent heat-transfer coefficients, correlate positively and significantly with mean wind speed. No satisfactory explanation for this behaviour emerges from a search for possible systematic errors in instruments, or due to sampling or coral reef effects. The results are not in strong conflict with previous field measurements. However, to explain the differences between sensible and latent heat transfer coefficients, a subtle contamination of four independent heat flux measurements, or a preferential enhancement of sensible heat flux (e.g., in conditions of spray) is required.     

Is an observed wind-speed dependence of AMTEX '75 heat-transfer coefficients real?

An extensive set of direct eddy flux measurements over the ocean in conditions of strong cold air advection during AMTEX '75 yield surface-layer sensible heat-transfer coefficients which, like the drag coefficients but unlike latent heat-transfer coefficients, correlate positively and significantly with mean wind speed. No satisfactory explanation for this behaviour emerges from a search for possible systematic errors in instruments, or due to sampling or coral reef effects. The results are not in strong conflict with previous field measurements. However, to explain the differences between sensible and latent heat transfer coefficients, a subtle contamination of four independent heat flux measurements, or a preferential enhancement of sensible heat flux (e.g., in conditions of spray) is required.     

基于遗传算法的四维变分资料同化技术的研究

将遗传算法应用于四维变分资料同化问题,提供一种新的较为有效的数值预报初始场优化方法,给出了相应的理论依据和详细算法,并结合变分问题本身的特点,设计合理的遗传编码、遗传操作和遗传参数.同时,以二维的浅水方程模式为例建立基于遗传算法的变分同化模型,并从多方面与伴随模式变分同化方案进行分析比较.数值试验结果表明,基于遗传算法的变分同化方案取得了比较满意的同化效果.     

基于启发式搜索的气象服务产品功能配置研究

本文首先简单介绍了启发式搜索的概念,并由此基础上阐述将功能需求配置进行细分并用与或树来表示每种功能需求配置划分方案,再由气象服务产品研发与客户共同制定相应的评价因素及权重后,通过状态空间的启发式探索策略来得到气象服务产品功能需求配置划分的最优方案,最后举例证明四川省重大气象灾害全媒体直播产品的需求转换成为功能需求配置划分方案,并利用启发式搜索策略来得到最优方案的可行性。     

基于位的二分查找算法

根据数据在内存中的存储形式，提出了一种直接利用二进制信息确定待查找数据查找范围的新的二分查找算法。试验结果表明，该算法是可行的，且可用于一些特殊场合。     

Cause of severe droughts in Southwest China during 1951–2010

The cause of severe droughts over the Southwest China (SWC) during the local dry season is investigated based on the station rainfall data and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data during 1951–2010. The droughts are in general consistent with local anomalous descent in the middle troposphere. The diagnosis of the vertical motion (omega) equation indicates that the local descent is primarily maintained by the anomalous cold temperature advection processes. Both the advection of anomalous temperature by mean wind and the advection of mean temperature by anomalous wind contribute to maintaining the anomalous descent over the SWC region. A composite analysis shows that the circulation anomaly over SWC is induced by remote forcing from the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans. During La Niña years, enhanced heating over the Maritime Continent induces anomalous downward motion over SWC through the connection of local Hadley circulation. Adiabatic warming associated with the downward motion helps to set up and maintain the local anomalous anticyclone. Another possible route is through the North Atlantic-Asia teleconnection, in which downstream Rossby wave energy propagation plays a crucial role. A negative-phase North Atlantic Oscillation may trigger a large-scale wave train pattern that induces an anomalous anticyclone over the subtropical Asia and promotes the dry condition over SWC.     

图像检索技术研究进展

近年来,互联网上视觉数据呈现出爆炸式的增长,越来越多的研究工作围绕图像搜索或图像检索技术而展开.早期的搜索技术仅采用文本信息,忽视了视觉内容作为排序的线索,导致搜索文本和视觉内容不一致.基于内容的图像检索（CBIR）技术充分利用视觉内容识别相关图像,在近几年来获得了广泛关注.在图像检索中,最根本的问题是意图鸿沟和语义鸿沟,围绕该问题,近年涌现出大量的基于内容的图像检索的技术.本文主要对2003-2016年间提出的相关图像检索方法进行总结、分类和评估,并对未来的潜在研究方向进行讨论.     

Stratosphere-troposphere exchange and its specific features at extratropical latitudes

A review of the papers dealing with various aspects of stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) is presented. The development of STE concepts is described and quantitative estimates of STE obtained by different authors are given. Typical time scales and geographic features of STE are described. Special attention is given to the specific features of STE at extratropical latitudes where active vertical air transport is observed in both directions. The air ascent through the tropopause occurs there in the zones of warm conveyor belts, and the air descent takes place in the zones of stratospheric intrusions. Exchange processes in the key region including the upper troposphere and the lowermost stratosphere are described. The mechanisms of large-scale stratospheric intrusions in the systems of tropopause folds or cut-off lows are presented as well as the mechanisms of the mixing of the stratospheric air with the tropospheric one. Specific features of deep stratospheric intrusions are discussed which are based on the analysis of such indicators of stratospheric air as high concentrations of ozone and stratospheric radionuclide 7Be. Some aspects of stratosphere-troposphere energy exchange are considered.     

基于G.729的固定码书搜索的改进性研究

在详细阐述G.729协议的CS-ACELP算法工作原理的基础上,分析了该算法各功能模块的算法复杂度,针对其总体复杂度较高,对硬件实现条件要求较高的问题,对复杂度相对较高的固定码书搜索部分采用减少脉冲搜索位置和补充搜索相结合的方式进行了改进,加快了码书的搜索速度,降低了算法复杂度.通过对改进后的算法进行实验仿真,验证了其可行性和有效性.     

提高最优插值法测量区域降水量 精度的探讨

首先从理论上研究了要素场相关函数和校准雨量站的分布对最优插值中最优权重系数的影响,然后用3种相关函数模型对1996～1997年收集的113个时次的雷达和雨量计资料进行计算、检验。结果表明:采用自适应相关函数模型的最优校准法可以有效提高区域降水量的测量精度。另外,通过对大误差的产生原因分析,给出合理设置自动雨量站的建议和解决边界测量精度较低的方法。     

两种气候变化情景下中国未来的粮食供给

全球温室气体排放导致的全球温度的上升一直是国际社会关注的重点问题之一。利用IPCC（政府间气候变化专门委员会）SRES（排放情景特别报告）的A2（中-高）和B2（中-低）温室气体排放情景，结合区域气候模式PRECIS和CERES作物模型模拟和分析了未来不同的温室气体排放情景下，中国未来2020年、2050年和2080年各个时段粮食的供需情景，并结合未来社会经济的发展分析了气候变化对未来粮食供求的影响，探讨了不同的气候变化程度对未来中国粮食供应的影响。结果表明：如果不考虑CO2的肥效作用，未来我国三种主要粮食作物（小麦、水稻和玉米）均以减产为主，灌溉可以部分地减少减产幅度，如果单考虑CO2的肥效作用，三种作物的产量变化以增产为主。若保持959／6的粮食自给率，人口按照SRESA2和B2情景增长，到2030年的技术进步可使粮食年单产递增0．79／6以上，维持目前的种植比例和种植面积，B2情景下，气候变化对我国的粮食安全问题将不会构成威胁，而A2情景下，气候变化将会对我国可持续发展的粮食安全造成威胁。     

我国月降水和气温网格点资料的处理和分析

用逐步搜索逼近法的客观分析技术计算出１９５１－１９９２年中国月降水量和月平均气温的格点资料，并利用图象识别原理对格点值和站点观测值进行了比较。     

Stability Dependence of the Eddy-Accumulation Coefficients for Momentum and Scalars

From a set of turbulence data collected with a three-axis sonic anemometer/thermometer and described in a companion paper, we simulate the eddy-accumulation process for sensible heat and momentum fluxes. The resulting eddy-accumulation coefficient for momentum clearly depends on surface-layer stability; at neutral stability, its value is 0.63. On supplementing the scalar eddy-accumulation coefficients that we derive from our sensible heat flux data with values of sensible and latent heat flux coefficients reported by Businger and Oncley, we also find that scalar eddy-accumulation coefficients depend on stability, though more weakly than does the momentum coefficient. The coefficients for sensible and latent heat show no significant difference; we, thus, fit them with one function of stability whose value is 0.52 for neutral stratification.     

球载式下投国产北斗探空仪测风性能评估

基于球载式下投北斗探空仪测风观测试验,建立了针对下投式的测风试验评估方法.试验结果表明上升段北斗测风的准确度接近RS92探空仪的探测准确度要求,两者一致性较好;下降段RS92测风误差基本上与上升段的属于同一量级水平,下降初期测风数据在使用时需要做预处理或者有效控制;下降段BD探空仪测风误差与下降段RS92的基本相当,除了球炸初期外,基本上接近WMO的测量要求,此外初期的急速下降对导航定位测风提出了更高的技术要求.整体而言,球载式下投探空观测在时间上可以实现对原有的1次探空进行加密,在空间上可以增加1个区域的探测,并为对现有探空站网分布进行合理优化提供依据,具有良好的应用前景.     

理想海域中台风引起的潮、流及波的分析 I 开阔海域的情况

采用理论分析与数值计算相结合的方法研究了理想开阔海域中的台风暴潮模型,讨论了开阔海域中移行台风下的海洋响应。分析表明,在开阔的浅海域,台风下的海洋运动以地转流为主,同时又激发出振幅较小的重力惯性流。重力惯性波是由于台风强度或移速的突然变化引起的,其波速通常大于台风移速。台风气压场造成海面升高且基本符合“静压效应”,但产生的正压流场非常微弱。伴随强风的气旋性风场造成的海面下降在台风经过之后可以维持很长时间,从而在台风后面形成一个长达几百公里的尾迹。而台风风应力和气压梯度力的总效果是在台风正前方造成海面上升,正后方造成海面下降。     

基于DBSCAN与网格搜索的雷电定位算法

定位精度是评价雷电定位网络的重要指标之一,定位算法直接影响雷电探测结果的精度。雷电监测系统探测数据误差不可避免,传统定位算法不具备抗误差干扰能力,迭代计算易发散,定位结果精度不高。为了满足实际应用需求,提出一种新的雷电定位算法DG-LLA（DBSCAN and grid-search lighting location algorithm）,在定位计算中引入DBSCAN（density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise）方法与网格搜索方法。通过仿真与国家雷电监测网实际定位结果对比分析定位算法性能。结果表明:到达时间差（time difference of arrival,TDOA）法和Taylor级数展开法定位误差较大,仿真区域的均方根误差分别为982 m和668 m;定位中引入DBSCAN方法后,均方根误差明显减小为406 m,引入DBSCAN方法和网格搜索方法后,均方根误差减小为349 m;在相同回击数据条件下,算法DG-LLA与国家雷电监测网相比定位数量更多,回击数据的利用率从43.4%提升到51.5%,新增定位结果周围雷达回波特征较强,定位精度更高。