地球气候变化的米兰科维奇理论研究进展

米兰科维奇理论是从全球尺度上研究日射量与地球气候之间关系的天文理论（以下简称为“米氏理论”）。该理论认为,地球轨道偏心率、黄赤交角及岁差等三要素变化引起的到达北半球中高纬度夏季日射量变化是造成冰期—间冰期旋回的根本原因。详细回顾了米氏理论的发展历程,并以南极东方站过去42万年大气和气候变化的历史资料为例,讨论了经典米氏理论中有待研究的若干问题。     

Investigating the sensitivity of the Atmospheric General Circulation Model ECHAM 3 to paleoclimatic boundary conditions

We present atmospheric simulations of three different time slices of the late Quaternary using the ECHAM 3 general circulation model in T42 resolution. In this work we describe the results of model runs for the time slices 6000 years BP (last climate optimum), 21 000 BP (last glacial maximum) and 115 000 years BP (glacial inception). Although the solar insolation is known for all time slices, a complete data set of the other boundary conditions which are necessary for running the atmospheric model exists only for the last glacial maximum in the form of the CLIMAP reconstruction. For the other two time slices, which are interglacial states like the modern climate, sea surface temperatures, land albedo and ice sheet topography are kept at modern values and only the solar insolation is changed appropriately. The response of the model to solar insolation changes is quite reasonable. The modelled anomalies are small and roughly opposite in sign for 6000 BP and 115 000 BP, respectively. In the case of last glacial maximum, the glacial ice sheet topography and ice albedo produce a much larger climate anomaly in the model. However, to enable a real test of model performance under glacial boundary conditions, the CLIMAP sea surface temperatures, which are now known to be partly inaccurate, should be replaced by an updated “state-of-the-art” reconstruction.     

Spatial patterns of Holocene glacier advance and retreat in Central Asia

Glaciers in the southern Himalayas advanced in the early Holocene despite an increase in incoming summer solar insolation at the top of the atmosphere. These glacier advances are in contrast to the smaller alpine glaciers in the western and northern regions of Central Asia. Two different glacier mass-balance models are used to reconcile this Holocene glacier history with climate by quantifying the change in equilibrium-line altitudes (ELA) for simulated changes in Holocene climate. Both ELA models clearly show that the lowering of ELAs in the southern Himalayas is largely due to a decrease in summer temperatures, and that an increase in monsoonal precipitation accounts for less than 30% of the total ELA changes. The decrease in summer temperatures is a dynamic response to the changes in solar insolation, resulting in both a decrease in incoming shortwave radiation at the surface due to an increase in cloudiness and an increase in evaporative cooling. In the western and northern zones of Central Asia, both ELA models show a rise in ELAs in response to a general increase in summer temperatures. This increase in temperatures in the more northern regions is a direct radiative response to the increase in summer solar insolation.     

地球接受太阳辐射能量变化对板块构造影响的估算

板块构造理论可以被认为是构造地质学研究的基本模型和框架。传统板块构造理论认为岩石圈板块在软流圈上方随软流圈对流发生运动,软流圈对流所需要的能量则完全由地球内部能量,如重力势能和放射性衰变产生的热能提供。但是近年来的一些研究证明了气候变化会对板块构造活动,如造山带活动产生直接影响。对传统的板块构造所需能量全部由地球内部提供这一观点做出了补充和更新。本文主要从两个方面对外动力作用可能影响板块构造做出分析,一是利用傅里叶分析证明了太阳辐射变化在构造活动,如洋中脊两侧地貌和火山沉积物中均能够留下记录;二是建立了一个简单的平面力学模型,探究洋流同大陆的力学作用会如何影响大陆运动特征。虽然这一模型忽略了很多因素,定量计算的结果本身并不具有很严格的数据绝对意义。但是这一模型的结果可以证明地球所有板块构造活动中释放的能量低于地球系统每年从太阳辐射中接收的能量,而且模型得到的大陆运动特征同现今实际观测下的运动特征存在一致性,洋流向大陆岩石圈传递的能量同地震活动释放的能量处于同一量级,从侧面可以证明洋流可能对板块构造产生了较大的影响。     

Spatial and temporal variability of Holocene temperature in the North Atlantic region

The early Holocene climate of the North Atlantic region was influenced by two boundary conditions that were fundamentally different from the present: the presence of the decaying Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) and higher than present summer solar insolation. In order to assess spatial and temporal patterns of Holocene climate evolution across this region, we collated quantitative paleotemperature records at sub-millennial resolution and synthesized their temporal variability using principal components analysis (PCA). The analysis reveals considerable spatial variability, most notably in the time-transgressive expression of the Holocene thermal maximum (HTM). Most of the region, but especially areas peripheral to the Labrador Sea and hence closest to the locus of LIS disintegration, experienced maximum Holocene temperatures that lagged peak summer insolation by 1000-3000 years. Many sites from the northeastern North Atlantic sector, including the Nordic Seas and Scandinavia, either warmed in phase with maximum summer insolation (11,000-9000 years ago) or were less strongly lagged than the Baffin Bay-Labrador Sea region. These spatially complex patterns of Holocene climate development, which are defined by the PCA, resulted from the interplay between final decay of the LIS and solar insolation forcing.     

Diatom‐based reconstruction of summer sea‐surface salinity in the South China Sea over the last 15 000 years

We present a new reconstruction of summer sea‐surface salinity (SSS) over the past 15 000 years based on a diatom record from piston core 17940, located on the northern slope of the South China Sea (SCS). The reconstructed diatom‐based summer SSS values for the modern period are in accord with instrumental observations of summer SSS in the area. Here, the modern summer SSS is primarily controlled by river runoff, in particular from the Pearl River. The reconstruction presented in this study shows that the summer SSS varied between 33.3 and 34.2 psu over the past 15 000 years. The long‐term summer SSS trend closely followed the trend of the orbitally controlled solar insolation at 20°N, suggesting that orbital forcing was the dominant driver of changes in summer SSS in this area. Comparisons to speleothem δ¹⁸O data and studies of surface hydrography in the region suggest that changes in solar insolation affected the summer SSS through changes in the East Asian Monsoon and sea‐level changes associated with the last deglaciation. Univariate spectral analyses indicate that centennial‐scale oscillatory variations in summer SSS were superimposed on the long‐term trend. During the deglacial period (c. 12 000–9000 cal. a BP), the dominant periodicity was centred around 230–250 years, whereas a ～350‐year oscillation dominated in the period 2200–4500 cal. a BP. The balance of evidence suggests that these centennial‐scale changes in summer SSS may have been driven by solar‐induced changes in the East Asian Monsoon, but further evidence is needed to firmly establish this relationship.     

石笋初始234 U/238 U值的冰量周期特征及其环境意义 ——以湖北三宝洞为例

石笋氧同位素记录具有明显的2万年周期,其他记录中广泛存在的10万年周期是否在石笋中有所表现目前还鲜有报道。通过对湖北三宝洞20支石笋的铀同位素数据的分析研究发现,石笋初始234U/238U值在序列连续性较好的640.3~299.6 ka B.P.时间段有强烈的10万年周期特征。在间冰期和冰期时,初始234U/238U值分别呈增大和减小状态。初始234U/238U值的10万年周期与全球冰量、黄土磁化率、黄土平均粒度和大气CO₂变化有良好的对应关系。这些对应关系表明全球冰量、大气CO₂对喀斯特区地球化学元素富集和迁移作用有重要影响。石笋氧同位素的显著岁差周期独立于石笋微量元素、高纬冰量和全球温室气体变化,暗示了太阳辐射变化对中低纬水汽环流的直接影响。石笋初始234U/238U与氧同位素、太阳辐射在冰消期时的对应变化支持北半球太阳辐射能量变化对冰期-间冰期旋回的调控作用。     

A radiometric calibration of the SPECMAP timescale

The astronomical theory of climate change asserts that Earth's climate is affected by changes in its orbit, which vary the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of solar radiation. This theory is the basis of the orbitally tuned SPECMAP timescale. A key constraint for this important chronology was the mid-point of the Penultimate Deglaciation, initially dated to 127,000 years ago. Recent work suggests this event may be considerably older, casting doubt on the astronomical theory, the SPECMAP timescale, and the accuracy of orbitally tuned chronologies. Difficulties with U/Th coral dating of sea-level events have impeded progress on this problem, because most corals are not closed systems. Here, we use a new approach to U/Th dating that corrects for open-system behavior and produces a sea-level curve of sufficient resolution to confidently correlate with SPECMAP over the last 240,000 years, permitting a reassessment of both this critical chronology and a central tenet of climate change theory. High-precision ages for 24 oxygen isotope events provide a 240,000-year chronology for marine δ¹⁸O records that is independent of orbital tuning assumptions. Although there appear to be significant differences between the radiometric and orbitally tuned timescales near the lastglacial maximum and at the Marine Isotope Stage 7/6 boundary, a comparison of radiometric and SPECMAP ages for identical isotope events suggest that the SPECMAP timescale is quite accurate and that its errors were, in general, overestimated. Despite suborbital complexity, orbital cyclicity is clearly evident in our record. High-amplitude sea-level oscillations at periods greater than 20,000 years are very close in phase to summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. Although sea-level changes cannot be uniquely tied to a specific season or latitude of insolation forcing, the simplest explanation is that long-period, high-amplitude sea-level change is linked to Northern Hemisphere insolation forcing. These results validate the principles of orbital tuning and suggest such timescales are generally robust.     

Investigation into albedo-controlled energy loss during the last glaciation

In recent years, attention has increasingly been paid to the question of the stability of the earth's climate. It has been observed that changes in climate are usually related to changes in the earth's surface. On this question, Liedtke writes ‘A change in climate can lead to considerable landscape changes’ (Liedtke 1990, p. 38). There seems to be some form of interaction between climate and the condition of the earth's surface. If solar radiation is taken to be the primary energy source for the earth's climate, the question arises as to how insolation affects the character of the earth's surface, and vice versa, how does the character of the earth's surface affect the insolation which occurs? Reconstructions of the last great Pleistocene glaciation 18,000 years ago show that the form of the earth's surface at that time was considerably different to its present form. In view of the interaction mentioned above between climate and earth surface, does this suggest a difference between the earth's radiation budget 18,000 years ago and that of today? If, as is widely believed, the area of the earth's surface covered by ice 18,000 years ago was approximately three times the current area (Liedtke 1990, p. 42), this presumably would have had at least some influence on the earth's radiation budget. The ice-covered areas may have modified the radiation budget by means of their high reflexivity. In other words, an albedo-related loss of radiation may have occurred. The results of this investigations show, that the global radiation budget at 18,000 B.P was about 7- -10% less than that of today.     

格陵兰冰芯记录的大气环流变化及其与南极冰芯的比较(英)

The GISP2, central Greealand, glaciochemical series (sodium, potassium, ammonium,calcium, magnesium, sulfate, nitrate and chloride) provides a unique view of the chemistry of the atmosphere and the history of atmospheric circulation over much of the Northern Hemisphere. Interpretation of this record reveals the controls on both high and low frequency climate events of the last 110 000 years.Changes in insolation on the order of the major orbital cycles control the long-term behavior of atmospheric circulation patterns through changes in ice volume (sea level) and related positive feedbacks.Events such as the Heinrich events (massive discharges of icebergs first identified in the marine record)are found to operate on a 6 100 year cycle due largely to the lagged response of ice sheets to changes in insolation and consequent glacier dynamics Rapid climate change events (massive reorganizations of atmospheric circulation) are demonstrated to operate on 1 450 year cycle possibly in response to internal oscillations in the ocean-atmosphere system or due to changes in solar output. Changes in insolation and associated positive feedbacks related to ice sheets assist in explaining favorable time periods and controls on the amplitude of these massive rapid climate change events.Comparison of the GISP2 glaciochemical series with an ice record from Taylor Dome in Antarctica indicates considerable similarity suggesting that both polar regions experience marked changes in climate. While preliminary evidence points to similar phasing of several major climate events in the two polar regions exact phasing cannot as yet be determined, because dating of Antarctic ice core records is not as well-established as the dating for Greenland ice cores.     

云南华坪全新世大暖期百年尺度的季风气候的石笋记录

通过对云南华坪葫芦洞FL4石笋进行高精度的ICP—MS—230Th/U测年和高分辨率的碳、氧同位素分析,建立了该地区6 060-4 185 a BP间高分辨率的西南季风气候变化时间序列,进而揭示了该时段发生的3次季风减弱事件。 这3次百年尺度（持续时间为90～240a）的干旱寒冷事件,分别发生在6 060－5 950 a BP、5 380－5 140 a BP、4 810-4 620 a BP,呈台阶状演变;而石笋的碳同位素记录揭示了2次强降水事件,分别发生在5 503－5 443 a BP和4 210-4 185 a BP,持续时间分别为25a和60a。石笋碳、氧同位素记录的西南季风减弱以及强降水事件明显受太阳辐射强度的控制。分辨率为3~10 a的碳、氧同位素记录表明,在百年尺度的西南季风气候变化上,叠加了一系列十年尺度的气候突变事件,呈锯齿状的高频波动。这些短时间尺度的季风气候波动事件与树轮14C 残差、冰芯记录极为相似,反映低纬度地区石笋记录的季风气候与高纬度及北极地区的气候具有极好的可比性,可能主要是受中低纬度太阳辐射强度以及北半球大气环流的影响,太阳辐射强度的变化是控制印度季风的快速推进或退出(萎缩)以及百年尺度上的气候波动的主要动因。      

Centennial blooming of anoxygenic phototrophic bacteria in Qinghai Lake linked to solar and monsoon activities during the last 18,000 years

The productivity of anoxygenic phototrophic bacteria (APB) can be inferred in the sediments of Qinghai Lake from the changing abundance of bacteriophaeophytin a (Bph-a). Using diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS), we identified Bph-a in Qinghai Lake sediments from the late glacial period through the Holocene with a resolution of one sample every 30–50 years. The Bph-a profile of Qinghai Lake demonstrates that in the last 18,000 years APB were only present between 4.2 and 14 ka BP, a period of high rainfall and high summer solar insolation. All the APB blooming events correspond to times of enhanced freshwater influx as revealed by percent redness, an indicator of the input of iron oxide minerals. Our data suggest that solar insolation sets the stage for APB blooms, which are then promoted by increased summer monsoon rainfall and nutrients resulting in the development of a chemocline in the lake. The blooming of APB in Qinghai Lake appears as discrete centennial-scale APB events likely linked to solar activities. Our results suggest the presence of solar-induced, century-long, intense summer monsoon episodes in the middle and early Holocene and the late glacial period.     

Holocene climate in the subarctic fjord Malangen, northern Norway: a multi-proxy study

A Holocene sedimentary record from the deep-silled Malangen fjord in northern Norway reveals regional changes in sedimentary environment and climate. Down-core analysis of two sediment cores includes multi-core sensor logging, grain size, x-radiography, foraminifera, oxygen isotopes, dinoflagellates, pollen, trace elements and radiocarbon datings. The cores are located just proximal to the submarine Younger Dryas moraine complex, and reveal the deglaciation after Younger Dryas and the postglacial evolution. Five sedimentary units have been identified. The oldest units, V and IV, bracket the Younger Dryas glacial readvance in the fjord between 12 700 cal. years BP and 11 800 cal. years BP. This is followed by deposition of glaciomarine sediments (units IV and III) starting around 12 100 cal. years BP. Glaciomarine sedimentation ceased in the fjord c. 10 300 cal. years BP and was replaced by open marine sedimentation (units II and I). A rapid stepwise warming occurred during the Preboreal. Onset of surface water warming lagged bottom water warming by several hundred years. The δ[Formula: See Text]O record indicates a significant, gradual bottom water cooling (c. 4°C) between 8000 and 2000 cal. years BP, a trend also supported by the other proxy data. Other records in the region, as well as GCM simulations, also support this long-term climatic evolution. Superimposed on this cooling were brief warmings around 6000 cal. years BP and 2000 cal. years BP. The long-term change may be driven by orbitally forced reduction in insolation, whereas the short-term changes may be linked to for example solar forcing, meltwater and NAO changes all causing regional changes in the North Atlantic heat transport.     

我国气候变化将比模式预期的小吗？谁驱动了亚洲季风的演化：一个瞬变模拟试验的启示

亚洲季风演化受到地球轨道参数强迫,尤其是岁差所引起日射变化的显著影响,但关于其驱动机制的争议仍然存在,且集中在“零相位”和“南半球潜热”两种假说上。两个假说都得到了部分地质证据的支持,因此亟需相应的数值模拟,尤其是长期瞬变试验的检验。长期瞬变模拟试验可以对气候的连续演变进行模拟,并能与地质证据进行对比,有助于深入认识亚洲季风系统演化的内在物理机制。但由于计算能力的匮乏,过去的古季风数值模拟多为“时间片”模拟,这使得季风变迁机理研究受到限制。文章通过一个海－气耦合模式的长期瞬变试验,讨论了轨道日射的变化特征,证明过去280ka亚洲夏季风降水对日射有十分显著的响应,且与北半球初夏日射变化相位接近,部分支持了“零相位”假说。同时,模拟结果还揭示了随意选取日射参考标尺会导致缺乏内在物理机制的位相关系,合理选择日射参考以及明确地质记录的气候学意义在古季风强迫－响应机制研究中十分重要。     

Did glacials start with global warming?

Correlation of paleoclimatic evidence with orbital changes shows that the build-up of polar ice accelerated when low obliquity coincided with perihelion in Northern Hemisphere winter. Under low obliquity the insolation was channeled to the tropics at the expense of both polar caps. As perihelion moved from winter solstice toward spring equinox, the solar beam in astronomic winter and spring became stronger than in summer and autumn. This orbital configuration under climate conditions like today would lead to warming of tropical oceans but cooling of the polar regions. The areally weighted global mean surface temperature, which is dominated by the low latitudes, would increase. Consequently, during the first millennia, the early glacial ice build-up was most likely accompanied by global warming. It was the associated increase of meridional insolation and temperature gradients, which were instrumental in the transition to a glacial.A significant part of the current global warming is due to the gradual temperature increase of the tropical oceans. As the changing orbital configuration today resembles that of the last interglacial/glacial transition, the warming is likely to have a natural component.     

Ice ages and orbital variations: Some simple theory and modeling

Possible physical mechanisms relating orbital-element variations (i.e., the “Milankovitch mechanism” of insolation regime changes) to Quaternary glacial/interglacial transitions are explored quantitatively. These include the seasonal cycle of albedo and the zonal distribution of thermal inertia. These mechanisms can interact with the perturbations to zonal average and seasonal average insolation caused by orbital-element variations to cause a global annual temperature residual, even though such variations can cause only a negligible change in global annual insolation.Numerical model experiments with a zonal energy balance model show that the relative interactions between insolation regime changes and seasonally and latitudinally varying albedo and latitudinally varying thermal inertia are roughly of comparable magnitude. Encouraging agreements between model experiments and data are evident, but these (and others') simulations are still a long way away from providing a satisfying explanation of the physical processes that could fully explain the apparent connections between orbital-element variations and Quaternary glaciations.It seems likely that no single physical process can be identified as predominate, and rather, the hypothesized physical connection between insolation regime changes and glacial/interglacial transitions will have to be built on the interactions of a number of processes on both short and long time scales.     

Brunhes-Matuyama magnetic reversal dated at 790,000 yr B.P. by marine-astronomical correlations

The presence of the Brunhes-Matuyama magnetic reversal in deep-sea core sediments makes possible an alternative to the usual K/Ar radioistope method of dating the reversal as found in rocks. The alternative method uses correlations of Northern Hemisphere summer insolation with oxygen-isotope ratios from tropical cores. The latitude-dependent insolation variations are calculated from planetary mechanics and thus provide a highly accurate astronomical time scale. The insolation variations strongly influence glacial-ice volume fluctuations that dominate the oxygenisotope ratio changes recorded in core sediments. The summer half-year insolation variations are identified with corresponding isotope-ratio changes in cores from the present through glacial Stage 20. Misleading effects of discontinuities or major nonuniformities of sediment deposition are avoided by an analysis of the uniformity of V28-238 and V28-239, the principal cores studied, and by comparisons with other cores. The top section (Stages 1 to 10) of V28-238 is uniformly deposited, and for this section an isotope-ratio time scale is chosen that agrees with the thorium-uranium date for the high sea stand of the last interglacial extreme. Over this interval, major glacial extremes (strong isotope-ratio minima) coincide consistently with major insolation minima at times of low orbital eccentricity. In addition interstadials are directly associated with precessional insolation peaks, and the envelope of isotope-ratio peaks resembles the envelope of precessionally dominated insolation peaks. The assumption that the glacial extremes depended similarly on insolation minima during Stages 10 to 20 permits minor age shifts of strong isotope-ratio minima in the two cores (relative to ages based on uniform overal deposition) to match the ages of low-eccentricity insolation minima. The age shifts reflect residual nonuniformities of deposition. The validity of this matching procedure is supported by a resulting consistent identification of principal isotope-ratio peaks with high- and low-latitude coincident insolation maxima. The Brunhes-Matuyama reversal is found intinterglacial Stage 19, and is dated on the astronomical time scale at 790,000 ± 5000 yr B.P.     

A unified approach to orbital,solar, and lunar forcing based on the Earth’s latitudinal insolation/temperature gradient

Widespread empirical evidence suggests that extraterrestrial forcing influences the Earth’s climate, but how this could occur remains unclear. Here we describe a new approach to this problem that unifies orbital, solar and lunar forcing based on their common control of the Earth’s latitudinal insolation gradient (LIG). The LIG influences the climate system through differential solar heating between the tropics and the poles that gives rise to the latitudinal temperature gradient (LTG), which drives the Earth’s atmospheric and (wind driven) ocean circulation. We use spectral analysis of recent changes in the Earth’s LTG to support earlier work on orbital timescales (Davis and Brewer, 2009) that suggests the climate system may be unusually sensitive to changes in the LIG. Identification of LIG forcing of the LTG is possible because the LIG varies according to seasonally specific periodicities based on obliquity in summer (41 kyr orbital and 18.6 yr lunar cycle), and precession (21 kyr orbital cycle) and total solar irradiance (11 yr solar cycle) in winter. We analyse changes in the Northern Hemisphere LTG over the last 120 years and find significant (99%) peaks in spectral frequencies corresponding to 11 years in winter and 18.6 years in summer, consistent with LIG forcing. The cross-seasonal and multi-frequency nature of the LIG signal, and the diffuse effect of the LTG driver on the climate system may account for the complexity of the response to extraterrestrial forcing as seen throughout the climatic record. This hypersensitivity of the LTG to the LIG appears poorly reproduced in climate models, but would be consistent with the controversial theory that the LTG is finely balanced to maximise entropy.     

New results on the Earth insolation and their correlation with the Late Pleistocene paleoclimate of West Siberia

The three problems composing the astronomical theory of paleoclimate have been solved in a new way. Two of them (changes in the orbital motion of the Earth and its insolation) have confirmed the results of previous research. In the third problem (a change in the rotational motion of the Earth), the obtained oscillations of the Earth’s rotation axis have an amplitude seven–eight times higher than the earlier estimated one. They lead to changes in insolation, which explain the paleoclimatic fluctuation. The changes in insolation and its structure for 200 kyr are considered. It is shown that the Late Pleistocene key events in West Siberia, for example, the last glaciations and warming between them, coincide with the extremes of insolation. The insolation periods of paleoclimatic changes and their characteristics are given.     

大洋环流型式转换在冰期旋回中的作用及经典第四纪冰期理论质疑(续)

大洋环流型式转换在冰期旋回中的作用及经典第四纪冰期理论质疑(续)汉景泰Ｗ．Ｓ．Ｆｙｆｅ(加拿大西安大略大学地质系)４问题及讨论大洋环流－气候学说认为从冰期到间冰期海洋－大气系统全球性巨型再组合导致了末次冰期的终止。