Selective variance reduction of multi-temporal LST imagery in the East Africa Rift System

A new method for elevation and latitude decorrelation stretch of multi-temporal land surface temperature (LST) in the East Africa Rift System (EARS) from MODIS 2008 monthly average night imagery and Globe digital elevation model (DEM) is presented. Multiple linear regression analysis of principal components images (PCAs) quantifies the variance explained by elevation and latitude. Selective variance reduction (SVR) reconstructs the multi-temporal LST imagery from the residual images and selected PCAs by taking into account the portion of variance not related to elevation and latitude. Clustering of the reconstructed imagery identifies two major thermal anomalies a) in the Afar Triangle, and b) a new one in between the Ethiopia and Kenya. These regions present LST values higher than the elevation and latitude predicted ones through out the year. It is assumed that the new thermal anomaly corresponds to a triple junction formed in between the Ethiopian Rift and the Eastern and the Western branches of the EARS, in an area where active volcanoes and mantle plume activity concentrate. SVR is expected to assist tectonic and volcanic zones characterization on the basis of their thermal response.     

中国历史文献中的高分辨古气候记录

本文介绍了我国历史文献中的古气候记录概况，以及这些记录被用于重建定量的气候序列、绘制历史气候图、编制古环境事件年表获取高分辨率的古气候的信息方面的进展     

Worldwide features of the strength of recurrent geomagnetic activity

Variation of the strength of recurrent geomagnetic activity, which occurs just before a sunspot minimum, with local time is studied for a network of observatories covering different latitude and longitude zones. For this purpose, hourly averages of horizontal intensity(H) for each UT hour for 173 days, which are totally free of disturbances due to solar transients, have been subjected to spectral analysis. Well-defined spectral peaks associated with periodicities of 28, 14 and 9 days were present in almost all the spectra. The pattern of daily variation of the strength of the 27-day signal changes from a diurnal one at low latitudes to a semi-diurnal one near the Sq focus and in this region, the 14-day signal appears to have an independent origin irrespective of the longitude zone. A study of 27-day oscillation in mean dailyH field also indicates that apart from ring current modulation, both Sq and electrojet fields also undergo 27-day oscillations during the declining phase of a solar cycle possibly through the ionospheric wind system.     

Influence of soil moisture content on surface albedo and soil thermal parameters at a tropical station

Half hourly data of soil moisture content, soil temperature, solar irradiance, and reflectance are measured during April 2010 to March 2011 at a tropical station, viz., Astronomical Observatory, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India (76°59’E longitude and 8°29’N latitude). The monthly, seasonal and seasonal mean diurnal variation of soil moisture content is analyzed in detail and is correlated with the rainfall measured at the same site during the period of study. The large variability in the soil moisture content is attributed to the rainfall during all the seasons and also to the evaporation/movement of water to deeper layers. The relationship of surface albedo on soil moisture content on different time scales are studied and the influence of solar elevation angle and cloud cover are also investigated. Surface albedo is found to fall exponentially with increase in soil moisture content. Soil thermal diffusivity and soil thermal conductivity are also estimated from the subsoil temperature profile. Log normal dependence of thermal diffusivity and power law dependence of thermal conductivity on soil moisture content are confirmed.     

青藏高原地气温度之间的关系

应用多元线性回归分析方法,对位于40°~25°N,75°~102°E范围内的119个气象观测台站的1991—2000年平均气温和地面温度观测资料进行分析,获得了研究区域的月平均气温、地面温度与纬度、经度和海拔高度间关系的线性统计系数.统计结果和实测资料的比较以及统计分析的相关系数结果表明,高原地区的气温、地面温度和它的年较差与经度、纬度及海拔高度具有很好的相关性.应用曲线拟合方法将所得统计分析系数拟合成时间函数,就可将高原地区的气温和地面温度表示成统一的空间坐标和时间的函数.如果将已验证的1991—2000年平均地面温度与气温差统计结果作为气温与地面温度间关系的实验结果,那么,就可以解决长期困扰多年冻土预报研究中在任意已知时间和空间点上气温条件下,难以确定影响多年冻土温度状况变化上边界条件的变化这一难题.这一结果对于目前正在进行的青藏铁路冻土工程和环境预报研究具有重要意义.     

Oceanic circulation as an element in palaeogeographical reconstructions: the Arenig (early Ordovician) as an example

A new conceptual palaeo-oceanographical model is outlined in this paper. The model differs from previous models by using shifts in Hadley circulation caused by orbital variations, and the rotation rate of the Earth, to locate the position of the planetary oceanic low-and high-pressure systems, around which the planetary ocean surface currents flow. Adapting the model to the Arenig (early Ordovician) the temperate low pressure zones were found to be located at 50° latitude and the subtropical high pressure zones at 25° latitude.
Traditionally, most Palaeozoic palaeogeographical recon-structions are reconstructed using palaeomagnetic data supplemented with data from climate-sensitive lithofacies and palaeo-biogeographical distributions. However, as a new approach in palaeogeographical reconstructions, the con-ceptual palaeo-oceanographical model is combined with palaeobiogeographical data for the Arenig series, comple-menting the palaeomagnetic data, and resulting in a new, refined palaeogeographical reconstruction.     

新疆区域逐月缺测气温序列的插补及重建

以新疆区域的墨玉站、牧气站和阿克达拉站为例, 使用多元回归分析的方法对3站月平均气温缺测资料进行插补, 通过基于MAE与RMISE的交叉验证及M-K突变检验和小波分析, 分析3站实测月平均气温距平资料与模拟月平均气温距平资料间的误差, 验证回归方法的精度. 同时, 使用该方法插补和重建新疆1961-2010年105个站月平均气温数据, 并对插补前90个站和插补后105个站的序列进行了EOF(经验正交函数)分析, 空间特征向量相似度高. 结果表明: 多元回归方法具有较高的精度, 回归方法重建新疆区域逐月气温资料能较好地反映当地月平均气温变化规律及特征, 重建逐月气温资料与实测逐月气温误差在信度范围内, 重建后的完整序列可作为气候变化业务及科学研究基础数据集.     

混沌序列WA-VOLTERRA耦合模型在月降水量预测中的应用

由于月降水量时间序列含有大量噪声, 并表现出明显的混沌特性, 现有预测模型均存在一定程度的不足.基于混沌理论的小波分析-VOLTERRA级数自适应(WA-VOLTERRA)耦合预测模型, 在对月降水量时间序列进行混沌特性识别的基础上, 先用小波分析对月降水序列进行时频分解, 再分别对各频率分量进行相空间重构并用3阶VOLTERRA级数自适应模型建模预测, 最后综合得到原始序列的预测值.以相近区域杭州市和南通市的月降水序列为例, 并通过与小波分析-支持向量机(WA-SVM)模型进行比较, 发现该模型具有较强的适用性和更高的预测精度.      

中国历史文献档案中的古环境记录

我国的历史文献记录是古气候、古环境信息的重要来源,对古全球变化（PAGES）研究计划的目标时段——近2000年（人文记录和自然记录并存的时段）来说,尤其具有重要的科学价值。介绍了我国古文献中的古气候、古环境记录的概况和各项记录如水、旱、雨、雪等的数量统计,综述了这些记录被用于重建定量的气候序列、绘制历史气候复原图、编制古环境事件年表、获取高分辨率的古气候信息诸方面的主要进展。     

The temperature of Europe during the Holocene reconstructed from pollen data

We present the first area-average time series reconstructions of warmest month, coldest month and mean annual surface air temperatures across Europe during the last 12,000 years. These series are based on quantitative pollen climate reconstructions from over 500 pollen sites assimilated using an innovative four-dimensional gridding procedure. This approach combines three-dimensional spatial gridding with a fourth dimension represented by time, allowing data from irregular time series to be ‘focussed’ onto a regular time step. We provide six regional reconstructed temperature time series as well as summary time series for the whole of Europe. The results suggest major spatial and seasonal differences in Holocene temperature trends within a remarkably balanced regional and annual energy budget. The traditional mid-Holocene thermal maximum is observed only over Northern Europe and principally during the summer. This warming was balanced by a mid-Holocene cooling over Southern Europe, whilst Central Europe occupied an intermediary position. Changes in annual mean temperatures for Europe as a whole suggest an almost linear increase in thermal budget up to 7800 BP, followed by stable conditions for the remainder of the Holocene. This early Holocene warming and later equilibrium has been mainly modulated by increasing winter temperatures in the west, which have continued to rise at a progressively decreasing rate up to the present day.     

Eigenvector analysis of reconstructed Holocene July temperature departures over northern Canada

July temperatures for the past 6000 yr at 11 sites in northern Canada have been predicted by transfer-function equations. Normalized departures from the mean of each time series at 250-yr intervals are analyzed by principal component (eigenvector) analysis. An initial analysis included 9 sites and the first three principal components accounted for 85.7% of the variance. Maps of the loadings on the principal components show broad spatial coherence on all three components. Temporal coefficients (principal component scores) illustrate major regional and local midsummer temperature variations. An additional 2 sites were then included but the spatial pattern of the loadings remained essentially unchanged. A further test of this approach, with a view toward predicting paleoclimates of northern regions, was to use the spatial coefficients (loadings) to estimate the July temperature departures at an “unknown” site (Long Lake, Keewatin). This reconstruction compares favorably with an independent transfer-function reconstruction (Kay, 1979). Power spectrum analysis of the significant principal component scores (temperature departures) over the 6000 yr showed that the temporal fluctuations associated with the first three principal components follow a “red noise” spectrum, indicative of strong persistence in the reconstructed climatic records. The scores on the fourth principal component approximate a “white noise” spectrum. A peak in power between 2000 and 3000 yr occurs in the variance spectrum of the second principal component (significance 10%). We conclude that eigenvector analysis of Holocene paleoclimatic data has considerable power and may be useful for identifying regional and local climatic variations.     

呼伦湖水面蒸发及水量平衡估计

为重建水文资料缺乏的呼伦湖流域的水文序列,本研究基于长期的气象观测记录,采用彭曼公式估计了湖泊的水面蒸发,并建立一个两参数月水量平衡模型模拟湖周的入流,通过水量平衡计算,模拟了湖泊月水量、水位变化,重建了42年(1961-2002)的呼伦湖区水文序列。模拟的水位变化趋势与实际比较接近,误差较小,模拟精度较好。所重建的42年呼伦湖水文序列,可为该区域的水资源评价管理提供科学依据。     

Application of factor analysis in defining drought prone areas in Lake Urmia Basin

Data reduction methods such as principal components analysis and factor analysis can be used to define drought prone areas of a basin. In this study, factor analysis method applied for the purpose of projecting the information space on the few dominant axes. The main aim of this study is regionalization of Lake Urmia Basin from the view of drought using factor analysis. For this purpose, monthly precipitation data of 30 weather stations in the period 1972–2009 were used. For each of the selected stations, 3- and 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values were calculated. Factor analysis conducted on SPI values to delineate the study area with respect to drought characteristics. Homogeneity of obtained regions tested using the S statistics proposed by Wiltshire. Results of factor analysis of 3- and 12-month SPI values showed that 5 (6) factors having eigenvalues >1 accounted for 68.08 (78.88) % of total variance. The Lake Urmia Basin was delineated into the five distinct homogeneous regions using the 3-month SPI time series. This was six in the case of the 12-month SPI time series. It can be concluded that there are different distinct regions in Lake Urmia Basin according to drought characteristics. The map of regions defined using the 3- and 6-month SPI time series presented in this paper for Lake Urmia Basin.     

Using of gene expression programming and climatic data for forecasting flow discharge by considering trend,normality, and stationarity analysis

In this research, the main hydrological characteristics (such as trend, stationarity, and normalization of hydrological data) of the Kasilian watershed are considered from 1970 to 2009. For forecasting of discharge, gene expression programming (GEP) method is applied. Normality and stationarity of time series are necessary for application of GEP method. For this purpose, third edition of Mann-Kendall trend test and skewness test are used for detection of trend and normalization of data, respectively. Also, five methods are applied for detection of stationarity of data. Modified Mann-Kendall trend test and Theil and Sen’s median slope method illustrate that annual and monthly precipitation data have slight decreasing trend, annual and monthly discharge data have insignificant decreasing trend, and annual and monthly temperature data have an increasing trend. Skewness test illustrates that annual, monthly, and daily discharge and precipitation data are not normal. By using logarithm function, skewness is minimized and symmetry of data is improved. After normalization of time series by logarithm function, five methods are applied for testing of stationarity of time series. These methods show that different normalized time series are stationarity and stationarity of time series is improved by elimination of periodic properties of data. For forecasting of daily discharge by GEP method, 85% of data are used for training and 15% of data are used for testing. By using data of 3 days ago, the GEP has the best efficiency. Coefficient of correlation (CC), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean absolute relative error (MARE) are 0.9, 0.495 lit/s, 0.288 lit/s, and 0.053, respectively.     

利用树轮资料重建长白山区过去气候变化

本文以树轮气候学中常用的树轮宽指数资料作为过去气候的代用资料，重建了长白山区1655年以来1～4月月平均最高气温的变化。重建中的校准方程稳定性较好，并可解释重建变量方差的57．4％。在1833年以来重建可靠性较高的时段中，1974～1979年为低温期，1951～1963年为高温期。而结束于1861和结束于1897年的两个高温期持续时间最长。本文的研究结果展示了利用树轮资料重建我国长白山区过去气候变化的巨大潜力。     

On the residence time of water in Narragansett Bay

For Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, newly calculated and archival data for the area, mean depth, total volume, mean salinity and fresh water input are presented. Estimates of the residence time of the water, derived from 22 sets of monthly mean values, were related to estimates of the fresh water input according to the empirical relationship T=41.8 e^?0.00435(FW), where T is the flushing time in days, and FW is the fresh water input in m³ per s; the r² value is 0.841. Adding estimates of the mean wind speed into a multiple regression increased the correlation coefficient only to 0.864. At the long-term mean rate of fresh water input (105 m³ per s) the flushing time is 26 days. At the lowest mean monthly input rate observed the flushing time was nearly 40 days, while at the highest mean monthly input rate in the data set (325 m³ per s) the flushing time was about 10 days. Known sources of random error appear sufficient to account for most of the deviations from the relationship. The evidence suggests that variation in the flushing time is largely determined by variation in the fresh water input.     

Processing of earthquake catalog data of Western Turkey with artificial neural networks and adaptive neuro<Emphasis>-</Emphasis>fuzzy inference system

Turkey is one of several countries frequently facing significant earthquakes because of its geological and tectonic position on earth. Especially, graben systems of Western Turkey occur as a result of seismically quite active tensional tectonics. The prediction of earthquakes has been one of the most important subjects concerning scientists for a long time. Although different methods have already been developed for this task, there is currently no reliable technique for finding the exact time and location of an earthquake epicenter. Recently artificial intelligence (AI) methods have been used for earthquake studies in addition to their successful application in a broad spectrum of data intensive applications from stock market prediction to process control. In this study, earthquake data from one part of Western Turkey (37–39.30° N latitude and 26°–29.30° E longitude) were obtained from 1975 to 2009 with a magnitude greater than M ≥ 3. To test the performance of AI in time series, the monthly earthquake frequencies of Western Turkey were calculated using catalog data from the region and then the obtained data set was evaluated with two neural networks namely as the multilayer perceptron neural networks (MLPNNs) and radial basis function neural networks (RBFNNs) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The results show that for monthly earthquake frequency data prediction, the proposed RBFNN provides higher correlation coefficients with real data and smaller error values.     

黑河出山径流的非线性特征分析

应用非线性动力学的理论和方法,对黑河出山径流的非线性特征进行了分析.结果表明,黑河月出山径流的年内分布、年平均流量的一次峰、谷变化符合单重或双重威布尔分布,并具有自相似性质.黑河出山径流多年变化在相空间中的运动轨迹收缩到一个约为4.32维的吸引子上,而描述流量的动力方程需要8个独立变量.黑河出山径流的非线性特征还表现在对内部结构为非线性函数的输入输出模型的良好应用上,如GRNN神经网络模型、非线性回归模型等.     

Mass change calculations in altered rock series

A technique is presented whereby precursors of altered rocks in a fractionated rock series can be identified, and changes in chemical components, mass and volume accurately calculated. The procedure utilizes elements with high degrees of immobility in hydrothermal and associated interactive water-rock systems. Igneous rock series, and sedimentary and metamorphic rocks with primary continuity of chemical composition, are amenable to this treatment. In the procedure for igneous rocks, best-fit fractionation lines are established for an immobile igneous compatible-incompatible element pair, the latter element functioning as the fractionation monitor. Alteration paths are linear and pass through the origin. Intersections of the fractionation and alteration lines yield the immobile element concentrations in the precursors to the altered rocks; mobile components are determined from fractionation lines and monitor values. Total mass changes are proportional to the displacement of altered samples from the fractionation line. Masses of other elements in an altered sample (reconstructed values) are recalculated to the concentration of the monitor element in the precursor. Chemical changes are the differences between the calculated precursor compositions and the reconstructed altered rock compositions. Errors are mainly a function of the positioning of the fractionation lines.     

Aerosol optical depths at Mohal-Kullu in the northwestern Indian Himalayan high altitude station during ICARB

First time observations of spectral aerosol optical depths (AODs) at Mohal (31.9°N, 77.11°E; altitude 1154 m amsl) in the Kullu valley, located in the northwestern Indian Himalayan region, have been carried out during Integrated Campaign for Aerosols, gases and Radiation Budget (ICARB), as a part of the Indian Space Research Organisation-Geosphere Biosphere Program (ISRO-GBP). AODs at six wavelengths are obtained using Microtops-II Sunphotometer and Ozonometer. The monthly mean values of AOD at 500 nm are found to be 0.27 ± 0.04 and 0.24 ± 0.02 during March and April, 2006 respectively. However, their monthly mean values are 0.33 ± 0.04 at 380 nm and 0.20 ± 0.03 nm at 870 nm during March 2006 and 0.31 ± 0.3 at 380 nm and 0.17 ± 0.2 at 870 nm during April 2006, showing a gradual decrease in AOD with wavelength. The Ångstrom wavelength exponent ‘α’ had a mean value of 0.72 ± 0.05, implying reduced dominance of fine particles. Further, the afternoon AOD values are higher as compared to forenoon values by ～ 33.0% during March and by ～ 9.0% during April 2006 and are attributed to the pollutant lifted up from the valley by the evolving boundary layer. Besides the long-range transportation of aerosol particles by airmass from the Great Sahara and the Thar Desert regions to the observing site, the high values of AODs have also been influenced by biomass burning and frequent incidents of forest fire at local levels.