Predicting the maximum amplitude for the sunspot cycle from the rate of rise in sunspot number

Examined are associational aspects as they relate the maximum amplitude R _M for the sunspot cycle to the rate of rise R _t during the ascending phase, where R _M is the smoothed sunspot number at cycle maximum and R _t is the sum of the monthly mean sunspot numbers for selected 6-month intervals (t) measured from cycle onset. One finds that, prior to about 2 yr into the cycle, the rate of rise is not a reliable predictor for maximum amplitude. Only during the latter half of the ascent do the fits display strong linearity, having a coefficient of correlation r 0.9 and a standard error S _yx 20. During the first four intervals, the expected R _M and the observed R _M were found to differ by no more than 20 units of smoothed sunspot number only 25, 42, 50, and 58 % of the time; during the latter four intervals, they differed by no more than 20 units 67, 83, 92, and 100% of the time.     

The latitude of filament bands at the sunspot minimum and the activity level in the two following 11-year solar cycles

The zonal structure of the distribution of filaments is considered. The mean latitudes of two filament bands are calculated in each solar hemisphere at the minima of the sunspot cycle in the period 1924–1986: middle latitude _{2, m} and low latitude _{1, m} . It is shown that the mean latitude of the filament band _{2, m} at the minimum -m of the cycle correlates, with = 0.94, with the maximum - M sunspot area S(M) and maximum Wolf number W(M) in the succeeding solar cycle M. It is shown that the mean latitude of the low-latitude filament band _{1, m} is linearly dependent on the mean latitude filament band _{2, m + 1} at the succeeding minimum. We found a correlation of the latitude of the low-latitude filament band _{1, m} with the maximum sunspot area in the M + 1 cycle. This enables us to predict the power of two succeeding 11-year solar cycles on the basis of the latitude of filament bands at the minimum of activity, 1985–1986: W(22) - 205 ± 10, W(23) - 210 ± 10. The importance of the relationships found for theory and applied aspects is emphasized. An attempt is made to interpret the relationships physically.     

Additional measurements of the high-latitude sunspot rotation rate

We report measurements of the sunspot rotation rate at high sunspot latitutdes for the years 1966–1968. Ten spots at ¦latitude¦ 28 deg were found in our Mees Solar Observatory H patrol records for this period that are suitable for such a study. On the average we find a sidereal rotation rate of 13.70 ± 0.07 deg day^-1 at 31.05 ± 0.01 deg. This result is essentially the same as that obtained by Tang (1980) for the succeeding solar cycle, and significantly larger than Newton and Nunn's (1951) results for the 1934–1944 cycle. Taken together, the full set of measurements in this latitude regime yield a rotation rate in excellent agreement with the result =14^°.37₇–2^°.77 sin², derived by Newton and Nunn from recurrent spots predominatly at lower latitudes throughout the six cycles from 1878–1944.Summer Research Assistant.     

On the maximum rate of change in sunspot number growth and the size of the sunspot cycle

Statistically significant correlations exist between the size (maximum amplitude) of the sunspot cycle and, especially, the maximum value of the rate of rise during the ascending portion of the sunspot cycle, where the rate of rise is computed either as the difference in the month-to-month smoothed sunspot number values or as the average rate of growth in smoothed sunspot number from sunspot minimum. Based on the observed values of these quantities (equal to 10.6 and 4.63, respectively) as of early 1989, one infers that cycle 22's maximum amplitude will be about 175 ± 30 or 185 ± 10, respectively, where the error bars represent approximately twice the average error found during cycles 10–21 from the two fits.     

Polar faculae and sunspot cycles

The monthly number of polar faculae of the Sun were determined from white-light images at spectral band (eff) = (4100 ± 200) Å obtained at the Kislovodsk Solar Station during 1960–1994. Corrected monthly numbers were obtained with the help of the visibility function. The level of polar activity larger than 1 above the monthly running mean was calculated, and the relation between the polar faculae and sunspot cycle was studied. We confirmed earlier results (Makarov and Makarova, 1987) that the monthly number of polar faculae, NPF _m (t) correlates with the monthly sunspot area A _m (Sp)(t + T) with a time shift T 6 yr. The new polar faculae cycle began in the middle of 1991. Peculiarities of the first part of sunspot cycle 23 are discussed.Guest scientist with the University of Arizona and Zetetic Institute. Tucson, Arizona 85719, U.S.A.     

On mass flow in a complex sunspot

The velocity field in a large complex sunspot is investigated in Fe i 6302.5 Å and in H with a spatial resolution of about 2.5. The Evershed flow is almost parallel to the solar surface. For the inclination angle between the velocity and the horizontal = 4.4°±1.3° is estimated; = 11° is the definite upper limit.     

Using geomagnetic indices to forecast the next sunspot maximum

The Babcock solar dynamo model and known interactions of the interplanetary magnetic field with the earth's magnetosphere are used to explain the relations found between geomagnetic indices at solar minimum and the sunspot number at the following solar maximum. We augment the work of Kane (1987) by updating his method of analysis, including recent smoothed aa and A_P indices. We predict a smoothed maximum sunspot number of 163±40 to peak in October 1990±9 months for solar cycle 22. This value is close to the Schatten and Sofia (1987) predicted value of 170±25, using more direct solar indicators.Now at Dept. of Astronomy, Univ. of Washington     

Observations of stray-light and sunspot intensities during the Mercury transit of 1970 May 9

In order to test the usual method for correcting sunspot intensity measurements for stray light, we have measured, during the Mercury transit of 1970 May 9, the intensities of Mercury, a sunspot umbra, and the aureole. The direct observations result in Mercury intensities < 0.06 I and aureole intensities <0.01 I . The stray light correction to the spot intensities has been <(0.03 ± 0.01) I . The main contribution to the stray light on the solar disc is shown to be produced by a spread-function with a half width of 10 arc sec. Consequently, for stray light corrections the range R R + + 20 in the aureole has to be measured very precisely; furthermore, a remarkable fraction of the stray light in the center of an umbra originates from the surrounding penumbra.Mitteilungen aus dem Fraunhofer Institut, Nr. 102.     

On the long-term secular increase in sunspot number

Correlated with the maximum amplitude (R _max) of the sunspot cycle are the sum (R _sum) and the mean (R _mean) of sunspot number over the duration of the cycle, having a correlation coefficient r equal to 0.925 and 0.960, respectively. Runs tests of R _max, R _sum, and R _mean for cycles 0–21 have probabilities of randomness P equal to 6.3, 1.2, and 9.2%, respectively, indicating a tendency for these solar-cycle related parameters to be nonrandomly distributed. The past record of these parameters can be described using a simple two-parameter secular fit, one parameter being an 8-cycle modulation (the so-called Gleissberg cycle or long period) and the other being a long-term general (linear) increase lasting tens of cycles. For each of the solar-cycle related parameters, the secular fit has an r equal to about 0.7–0.8, implying that about 50–60% of the variation in R _max, R _sum, and R _mean can be accounted for by the variation in the secular fit.Extrapolation of the two-parameter secular fit of R _max to cycle 22 suggests that the present cycle will have an R _max = 74.5 ± 49.0, where the error bar equals ± 2 standard errors; hence, the maximum amplitude for cycle 22 should be lower than about 125 when sunspot number is expressed as an annual average or it should be lower than about 130 when sunspot number is expressed as a smoothed (13-month running mean) average. The long-term general increase in sunspot number appears to have begun about the time of the Maunder minimum, implying that the 314-yr periodicity found in ancient varve data may not be a dominant feature of present sunspot cycles.     

Understanding Solar Flare Waiting-Time Distributions

The observed distribution of waiting times t between X-ray solar flares of greater than C1 class listed in the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) catalog exhibits a power-law tail (t) for large waiting times (t>10hours). It is shown that the power-law index varies with the solar cycle. For the minimum phase of the cycle the index is =–1.4±0.1, and for the maximum phase of the cycle the index is –3.2±0.2. For all years 1975–2001, the index is –2.2±0.1. We present a simple theory to account for the observed waiting-time distributions in terms of a Poisson process with a time-varying rate (t). A common approximation of slow variation of the rate with respect to a waiting time is examined, and found to be valid for the GOES catalog events. Subject to this approximation the observed waiting-time distribution is determined by f(), the time distribution of the rate . If f() has a power-law form for low rates, the waiting time-distribution is predicted to have a power-law tail (t)^–(3+) (>–3). Distributions f() are constructed from the GOES data. For the entire catalog a power-law index =–0.9±0.1 is found in the time distribution of rates for low rates (<0.1hours ^–1). For the maximum and minimum phases power-law indices =–0.1±0.5 and =–1.7±0.2, respectively, are observed. Hence, the Poisson theory together with the observed time distributions of the rate predict power-law tails in the waiting-time distributions with indices –2.2±0.1 (1975–2001), –2.9±0.5 (maximum phase) and –1.3±0.2 (minimum phase), consistent with the observations. These results suggest that the flaring rate varies in an intrinsically different way at solar maximum by comparison with solar minimum. The implications of these results for a recent model for flare statistics (Craig, 2001) and more generally for our understanding of the flare process are discussed.     

Periodogram analysis of 240 years of sunspot records

We have analyzed the direct records of sunspot number between 1749 and 1990 with the same technique currently used in the study of stellar activity cycles observed with Mount Wilson Observatory's 60-inch telescope. In order to mimic the stellar time series, which span only two decades, we analyzed twenty- and fifty-year intervals of the sunspot data in comparison to the entire record. We also examined the reliability of the oldest (pre-1850) sunspot records. The mean solar cycle period determined from the entire record (1749–1990) is 11.04 yr with a computed precision of ± 0.01 yr, but an overall accuracy of only ±1.1 yr. The large uncertainty is caused by variation of the cycle period with time and not observational uncertainty.The correct sunspot period is found slightly more often (82%) in 50-year intervals compared to 20-year (74%). The cause is twofold: first, a more precise period results from the longer sample length, and second, other periodicities exist in the sunspot record, so that a more accurate determination of the dominant 11.0-year period results from the longer time series. As a guideline for cycle periodicities in other stars, the solar results indicate that the 50-year intervals would produce more precise and accurate periods than the 20-year time series. On the other hand, useful statistics concerning long-term activity could be obtained from a less-frequently sampled group of stars that is substantially larger than the group of 100 lower Main-Sequence stars currently observed at Mount Wilson, although knowledge of short-term variability would be sacrificed.Pre-doctoral fellow, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.     

An early estimate for the size of cycle 23

Two features are found in the modern era sunspot record (cycles 10–22: ca. 1850-present) that may prove useful for gauging the size of cycle 23, the next sunspot cycle, several years ahead of its actual onset. These features include an inferred long-term increase against time of maximum amplitude (RM, the maximum value of smoothed sunspot number for a cycle) and the apparently inherent differing natures of even- and odd-numbered sunspot cycles, especially when grouped consecutively as even-odd cycle pairs. Concerning the first feature, one finds that 6 out of the last 6 sunspot cycles have had RM 110.6 (the median value for the modern era record) and that 4 out of 6 have had RM > 150. Presuming this trend to continue, one anticipates that cycle 23 will likewise have RM 110.6 and, perhaps, RM > 150. Concerning the second feature, one finds that, when one groups sunspot cycles into consecutively paired even-odd cycles, the odd-following cycle has always been the larger cycle, 6 out of 6 times. Because cycle 22 had RM = 158.5, one anticipates that cycle 23 will have RM > 158.5. Additionally, because the average difference between RM(odd) and RM(even) for consecutively paired even-odd cycles is 40.3 units (sd = 14.2), one expects cycle 23 to have RM 162.3 (RM = 198.8 ± 36.5 at the 95% level of confidence). Further, because of the rather strong linear correlation (r = 0,959, se = 13.5) found between RM(odd) and RM(even) for consecutively paired even-odd cycles, one infers that cycle 23 should have RM 176.4 (RM = 213.9 ± 37.5 at the 95% level of confidence). Since large values of RM tend to be associated with fast rising cycles of short ascent duration and high levels of 10.7-cm solar radio flux, cycle 23 is envisioned to be potentially one of the greatest cycles of the modern era, if not the greatest.     

Dependence of the meridional motions of sunspot groups on life spans and age of the groups,and on the phase of the solar cycle

We have analyzed data on sunspot groups compiled during 1874–1981 and investigated the following: (i) dependence of the `initial' meridional motion (v <sub>ini</sub>()) of sunspot groups on the life span () of the groups in the range 2–12 days, (ii) dependence of the meridional motion (v(t)) of sunspot groups of life spans 10–12 days on the age (t) of the spot groups, and (iii) variations in the mean meridional motion of spot groups of life span 2–12 days during the solar cycle. In each of the latitude intervals 0°–10°, 10°–20° and 20°–30°, the values of both v <sub>ini</sub>() and v(t) often differ significantly from zero. In the latitude interval 20°–30°, the forms of v <sub>ini</sub>() and v(t) are largely systematic and mutually similar in both the north and south hemispheres. The form of v(t) suggests existence of periodic variation in the solar meridional motion with period of 4 days and amplitude 10–20 m s<sup>–1</sup>. Using the anchoring depths of magnetic structures for spot groups of different and testimated earlier, (Javaraiah and Gokhale, 1997), we suggest that the forms of v <sub>ini</sub>() and v(t) may represent radial variation of meridional flow in the Sun's convection zone, rather than temporal variation of the flow. The meridional flows (v <sub>e</sub>(t)) determined from the data during the last few days (i.e., age t: 10–12 days) of spot groups of life spans of 10–12 days are found to have magnitudes (10–20 m s<sup>–1</sup>) and directions (poleward) similar to the those of the surface meridional plasma flows determined from the Dopplergrams and magnetograms. The mean meridional velocity of sunspot groups living 2–12 days seems to vary during the solar cycle. The velocity is not significantly different from zero during the rising phase of the cycle and there is a suggestion of equatorward motion (a few m s<sup>–1</sup>at lower latitudes and 10 m s<sup>–1</sup>at higher latitudes) during the declining phase (last few years) of the cycle. The variation during the odd numbered cycles seems to anticorrelate with the variation during the even numbered cycles, suggesting existence of 22-year periodicity in the solar meridional flow. The amplitude of the anticorrelation seems to be depending on latitude and the cycle phase. In the latitude interval 20°–30° the `surface plasma meridional motion', v _e(t), is found to be poleward during maximum years (v _e(t) 20 m s^–1at 4th year) and equatorward during ending years of the cycle (v _e(t) –17 m s^–1at 10th year).     

The abelian higgs sunspot endowed with a local conformal symmetry

We show that the requirement of alocal conformal symmetry of the Abelian Higgs sunspot leads, at least formally, to a complex-valued electromagnetic potential, whose imaginary part is a conformal compensating potential. It is shown that there exists a fundamental difference between conformal and ordinary electromagnetic fields; whereas the ordinary total magnetic flux of a spot is quantized its conformal analogue has to vanish if the Higgs field is to be single-valued. We further stress that such a complex-valued Abelian Higgs field configuration mimics quite well, under certain conditions (all the salient features of) the classical Abelian Higgs sunspot.     

The influence of the sunspot model on the Li-abundance

The dependence of the Li-abundance on the equivalent width of the Li-resonance doublet at 6708 Å is calculated for different umbral models. The choice of the model strongly influences the deduced Li-abundance (up to a factor 8 or log _Li = 0.9) even when using recent umbral models. Detailed discussion of the observations and reduction with the most suitable umbral model (Stellmacher and Wiehr, 1970) leads to an abundance of log _Li = 1.1±0.05 (in the log _H = 12.0 scale).     

On the interpretation of the π-component splitting in sunspot spectra

It is shown that in order to explain the observed splitting of the -component in the sunspot umbra spectrum by the hypothesis of the coexistence in sunspots of weak- and strong-field regions with opposite polarities, one has to admit the additional assumption that in the weak-field regions the Doppler halfwidth ( _D) and the ratio between line opacity and continuum opacity ( ₀) are both less than those in the strong-field regions.     

The angle of inclination of the sunspot symmetry axis to the solar surface

The Wilson effect, used before only as a method of determining the physical depression of sunspots, is used here to estimate a quite different parameter - the sunspot symmetry axis inclination angle to the solar surface, this explains the observed negative Wilson effect.On the basis of photoheliograms taken with three telescopes of the High-Altitude Solar observatory Peak Alma-Ata, the Wilson effect for the whole solar disk is investigated, the east and west parts of the disk being studied separately. 111 sunspots of regular shape at different heliocentric angles were measured, eight of them being under observations from one limb to the other. To study the dependence of the Wilson effect on the heliocentric angle, all observations within an angular interval of 10° were averaged. The dependence thus derived is described by two sinusoids having the zero point shifted along both axes. The shift of the zero Wilson effect to the west, i.e., a shift along the heliocentric angle axis, can be caused by the deviation of the sunspot axis to the east from the normal to the solar surface. On the line of sight-normal plane the angle corresponding to this deviation is =34°±14°.     

A solar cycle timing predictor - the latitude of active regions

The Schatten and Sofia (1987) dynamo theory prediction for the amplitude of smoothed annual sunspot number in the present solar cycle, No. 22, of 170 ± 25 was predicted to peak in 1990 ± 1 year. This peak was earlier and larger than most other estimates made in early 1987. New observational evidence shows sunspot values rising very rapidly, generally supporting the exceptionally large cycle predicted, however, solar cycle 22 appears even more exceptional than expected, in that the early cycle rise has exceeded all previous cycle increases. We use a Spörer butterfly method to examine solar cycle 22. We show from the latitude of active regions, that the cycle can now be expected to peak near November 1989 ±8 months, basically near the latter half of 1989.This paper was presented at the third meeting of the Solar Cycle Workshop, held in Sydney, Australia, January 9–13, 1989.     

The solar wind cycle,the sunspot cycle,and the corona

Recent theories of the solar cycle and of coronal heating strongly suggest that solar cycle variations of different quantities (i.e. sunspots, coronal green line, etc.) ought not to be expected to be in phase with one another. In agreement with this notion we note that the shape of the corona typical of a maximum eclipse occurs 1.5yr before sunspot maximum, compared with 2 yr as might be expected from Leighton's standard model. Further, we argue that the phase of the solar wind cycle can be determined from geomagnetic observations. Using this phase, a solar cycle variation of 100 km s^–1 in the solar wind velocity and 1 in the magnetic field intensity becomes apparent. In general, the solar wind cycle lags the coronal-eclipse-form cycle by 3 yr, compared with the 2 yr that might be expected from model calculations.     

Cycle latitude effects for sunspot groups

Digitized Mount Wilson sunspot data from 1917 to 1985 are analyzed to examine meridional motion and rotation properties as a function of latitude and distance () from the average latitude of activity (₀) in each hemisphere. Latitude dependence similar to previous results is found, but only for spot groups whose areas are decreasing from one day to the next. A previous study of active region magnetic fields, using this technique of motions as a function of the average latitude of activity, had shown meridional motions on average toward ₀. In this analysis of spot data some evidence is seen for motion away from ₀, with some slight evidence for faster rotation equatorward of ₀ and slower motion poleward of ₀, similar to the torsional oscillation phenomenon. For reasons that are not clear, both of these effects are significantly more pronounced for sunspot groups whose areas are decreasing.Operated by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc., under Cooperative Agreement with the National Science Foundation.