The partitioning of radiated energy and the largest aftershock of seismic sequences occurred in the northeastern Italy and western Slovenia

We analyzed the most relevant seismic sequences that occurred from 1977 to 2007 in the Friuli-Venezia Giulia region (northeastern Italy) and western Slovenia. The eight aftershock sequences were triggered by low- to moderate-magnitude earthquakes with mainshock duration magnitude ranging from 3.7 to 5.6. The b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter law varies from 0.8 to 1.1. The modified Omori’s modeling of the sequences evidences values of the p exponent ranging from 0.8 to 1.0. Using the Reasenberg and Jones (Science 243:1173–1176, 1989; Science 265:1251–1252, 1994) approach, we computed the probabilistic estimate of the aftershock rates and the largest aftershock in given time intervals. The difference in magnitude between the mainshock and the largest aftershock is calculated according to the modified Båth law and using an approach that considers the partitioning of the radiated seismic energy between mainshock and aftershocks. The partitioning of the radiated seismic energy appears to play a significant role in the evolution of the sequences. We define the parameter R _ES as the ratio between the radiated seismic energy of the mainshock and the summation of the seismic energy radiated by the aftershocks. The difference in magnitude between the mainshock and the largest aftershock, calculated with the parameter R _ES, agrees well with the observed difference. In most sequences, the parameter R _ES decreases very quickly until the occurrence of the largest aftershock and then becomes constant. By analyzing the values of R _ES during the early hours following the mainshock, we found that the R _ES values after 24 h are well related to the final ones, calculated on the whole sequence, and to the differences in magnitude between the mainshock and the largest aftershock.     

Determination of source parameters of strong earthquakes of Kamchatka,the Kurile Islands,and Japan from aftershock sequences

Aftershock sequences of some strong earthquakes of Kamchatka, the Kurile Islands, and Japan are examined. Such source parameters as the length L, along-dip width W, motion on fault D, and stress drop Δσ are determined from the aftershock sequences considered. The values of these parameters were obtained by the formal estimation of linear source parameters (lower bound estimates) and visually (upper bound estimates). The correlation dependences of the obtained parameters on the surface wave (M _S ) and seismic moment (M _W ) magnitudes are calculated.     

Probabilistic aftershock hazard analysis,two case studies in West and Northwest Iran

Aftershock hazard maps contain the essential information for search and rescue process, and re-occupation after a main-shock. Accordingly, the main purposes of this article are to study the aftershock decay parameters and to estimate the expected high-frequency ground motions (i.e., Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)) for recent large earthquakes in the Iranian plateau. For this aim, the Ahar-Varzaghan doublet earthquake (August 11, 2012; M _N =6.5, M _N =6.3), and the Ilam (Murmuri) earthquake (August 18, 2014 ; M _N =6.2) have been selected. The earthquake catalogue has been collected based on the Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64(5), 1363-1367, 1974) temporal and spatial windowing technique. The magnitude of completeness and the seismicity parameters (a,??b) and the modified Omori law parameters (P,??K,??C) have been determined for these two earthquakes in the 14, 30, and 60 days after the mainshocks. Also, the temporal changes of parameters (a,??b,??P,??K,??C) have been studied. The aftershock hazard maps for the probability of exceedance (33%) have been computed in the time periods of 14, 30, and 60 days after the Ahar-Varzaghan and Ilam (Murmuri) earthquakes. For calculating the expected PGA of aftershocks, the regional and global ground motion prediction equations have been utilized. Amplification factor based on the site classes has also been implied in the calculation of PGA. These aftershock hazard maps show an agreement between the PGAs of large aftershocks and the forecasted PGAs. Also, the significant role of b parameter in the Ilam (Murmuri) probabilistic aftershock hazard maps has been investigated.     

Dynamics of Induced Seismicity during the Filling of the Nurek Reservoir

The seismological data in the area of induced seismicity in the region of the Nurek reservoir are analyzed. The analysis is based on the developed database for the earthquakes that occurred from 1955 to 1989 and is aimed at finding the regularities in the variations of the parameters of the transitional seismic regime caused by filling a reservoir. These parameters include the b-value—the slope of the graph of the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude relationship, the fractal dimension d of the set of the epicenters, and fracture cycle parameter q = αb ? d, where coefficient α determines the ratio between the magnitude and source size M = α log l + β. It is shown that during the filling of a reservoir, these parameters undergo statistically reliable variations: at the initial stages, the b-value increases, the fractal dimension of the set of epicenters decreases, and the fracture cycle parameter q grows and becomes positive in the middle of the time interval of reservoir filling. After a reservoir is filled, these parameters recover their background values. The aftershock sequences of the three strongest earthquakes—before, in the beginning, and in the middle of the reservoir filling period—are studied. It is confirmed that the Omori parameter p for the aftershock sequences during filling is smaller than for the earthquake before filling. Based on the dynamics of the studied parameters, it is conjectured that the relaxation time of the transitional seismic regime after the emergence of induced seismicity is about 10 years.     

Hysteretic energy prediction method for mainshock-aftershock sequences

Structures located in seismically active regions may be subjected to mainshock-aftershock (MSAS) sequences. Strong aftershocks significantly affect the hysteretic energy demand of structures. The hysteretic energy, E_H,seq, is normalized by mass m and expressed in terms of the equivalent velocity, V_D,seq, to quantitatively investigate aftershock effects on the hysteretic energy of structures. The equivalent velocity, V_D,seq, is computed by analyzing the response time-history of an inelastic single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) system with a varying vibration period subjected to 309 MSAS sequences. The present study selected two kinds of MSAS sequences, with one aftershock and two aftershocks, respectively. The aftershocks are scaled to maintain different relative intensities. The variation of the equivalent velocity, V_D,seq, is studied for consideration of the ductility values, site conditions, relative intensities, number of aftershocks, hysteretic models, and damping ratios. The MSAS sequence with one aftershock exhibited a 10% to 30% hysteretic energy increase, whereas the MSAS sequence with two aftershocks presented a 20% to 40% hysteretic energy increase. Finally, a hysteretic energy prediction equation is proposed as a function of the vibration period, ductility value, and damping ratio to estimate hysteretic energy for mainshock-aftershock sequences.     

Experimental Study on Velocity Profiles with Different Roughness Elements in a Flume

The classical log law for velocity profile is applied to engineering practice. Field observations indicate that the composition of the bed materials obviously influences the shape of vertical velocity distribution. To clearly understand the roughness effect, six types of materials were laid separately at various depths for the investigation of the effects of roughness elements on the vertical velocity distribution. A down-looking 3D acoustic Doppler velocimeter was used to measure the velocity profiles. The experimental results showed that the curve characteristics of velocity profiles are strongly dependent on the roughness scale and related flow parameters. If d/R, Fr, and Re are larger than 0.15, 0.47, and 60 000, respectively, the velocity distribution may resemble an S-shape profile. The inflexion position Z*/H for a given S-shape profile was empirically deduced as Z*/H = ?0.4481d/R + 0.3225. Otherwise, the velocity profile agrees well with the logarithmic law. The findings of this study are useful in engineering practice (i.e., depth-averaged velocity and flow rate estimate). Key words: velocity profiles, acoustic Doppler velocimeter, roughness elements, logarithmic law, S-shape curve.     

Rushan earthquake swarm in eastern China and its indications of fluid-triggered rupture

An extraordinary earthquake swarm occurred at Rushan on the Jiaodong Peninsula from October 1, 2013, onwards, and more than 12,000 aftershocks had been detected by December 31, 2015. All the activities of the whole swarm were recorded at the nearest station, RSH, which is located about 12 km from the epicenter. We examine the statistical characteristics of the Rushan swarm in this paper using RSH station data to assess the arrival time difference, \(t_{{{\text{S}} \,-\, {\text{P}}}}\), of Pg and Sg phases. A temporary network comprising 18 seismometers was set up on May 6, 2014, within the area of the epicenter; based on the data from this network and use of the double difference method, we determine precise hypocenter locations. As the distribution of relocated sources reveals migration of seismic activity, we applied the mean-shift cluster method to perform clustering analysis on relocated catalogs. The results of this study show that there were at least 16 clusters of seismic activities between May 6, 2014, and June 30, 2014, and that each was characterized by a hypocenter spreading process. We estimated the hydraulic diffusivity, D, of each cluster using envelope curve fitting; the results show that D values range between 1.2 and 3.5 m²/d and that approximate values for clusters on the edge of the source area are lower than those within the central area. We utilize an epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model to separate external triggered events from self-excited aftershocks within the Rushan swarm. The estimated parameters for this model suggest that α = 1.156, equivalent to sequences induced by fluid-injection, and that the forcing rate (μ) implies just 0.15 events per day. These estimates indicate that around 3% of the events within the swarm were externally triggered. The fact that variation in μ is synchronous with swarm activity implies that pulses in fluid pressure likely drove this series of earthquakes.     

The spatiotemporal analysis of the minimum magnitude of completeness <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mc</Emphasis> and the Gutenberg–Richter law <Emphasis Type="Italic">b</Emphasis>-value parameter using the earthquake catalog of Greece

Spatiotemporal mapping the minimum magnitude of completeness Mc and b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter law is conducted for the earthquake catalog data of Greece. The data were recorded by the seismic network of the Institute of Geodynamics of the National Observatory of Athens (GINOA) in 1970–2010 and by the Hellenic Unified Seismic Network (HUSN) in 2011–2014. It is shown that with the beginning of the measurements at HUSN, the number of the recorded events more than quintupled. The magnitude of completeness Mc of the earthquake catalog for 1970–2010 varies within 2.7 to 3.5, whereas starting from April 2011 it decreases to 1.5–1.8 in the central part of the region and fluctuates around the average of 2.0 in the study region overall. The magnitude of completeness Mc and b-value for the catalogs of the earthquakes recorded by the old (GINOA) and new (HUSN) seismic networks are compared. It is hypothesized that the magnitude of completeness Mc may affect the b-value estimates. The spatial distribution of the b-value determined from the HUSN catalog data generally agrees with the main geotectonic features of the studied territory. It is shown that the b-value is below 1 in the zones of compression and is larger than or equal to 1 in the zones dominated by extension. The established depth dependence of the b-value is pretty much consistent with the hypothesis of a brittle–ductile transition zone existing in the Earth’s crust. It is assumed that the source depth of a strong earthquake can probably be estimated from the depth distribution of the b-value, which can be used for seismic hazard assessment.     

Quantitative Analysis of Seismicity Before Large Taiwanese Earthquakes Using the G-R Law

Seismicity has been identified as an example of a natural, nonlinear system for which the distribution of frequency and event size follow a power law called the “Gutenberg–Richter (G-R) law.” The parameters of the G-R law, namely b- and a-values, have been widely used in many studies about seismic hazards, earthquake forecasting models, and other related topics. However, the plausibility of the power law model and applicability of parameters were mainly verified by statistical error σ of the b-value, the effectiveness of which is still doubtful. In this research, we used a newly defined p value developed by Clausetet al. (Power-Law Distributions in Empirical Data, SIAM Rev. 51, 661–703, 2009) instead of the statistical error σ of the b-value and verified its effectiveness as a plausibility index of the power-law model. Furthermore, we also verified the effectiveness of K–S statistics as a goodness-of-fit test in estimating the crucial parameter \(M_{\text{c}}\) of the power-law model.     

Simulation of spatial and temporal properties of aftershocks by means of the fiber bundle model

The rupture processes of any heterogeneous material constitute a complex physical problem. Earthquake aftershocks show temporal and spatial behaviors which are consequence of the heterogeneous stress distribution and multiple rupturing following the main shock. This process is difficult to model deterministically due to the number of parameters and physical conditions, which are largely unknown. In order to shed light on the minimum requirements for the generation of aftershock clusters, in this study, we perform a simulation of the main features of such a complex process by means of a fiber bundle (FB) type model. The FB model has been widely used to analyze the fracture process in heterogeneous materials. It is a simple but powerful tool that allows modeling the main characteristics of a medium such as the brittle shallow crust of the earth. In this work, we incorporate spatial properties, such as the Coulomb stress change pattern, which help simulate observed characteristics of aftershock sequences. In particular, we introduce a parameter (P) that controls the probability of spatial distribution of initial loads. Also, we use a “conservation” parameter (π), which accounts for the load dissipation of the system, and demonstrate its influence on the simulated spatio-temporal patterns. Based on numerical results, we find that P has to be in the range 0.06 < P < 0.30, whilst π needs to be limited by a very narrow range (0.60 < π < 0.66) in order to reproduce aftershocks pattern characteristics which resemble those of observed sequences. This means that the system requires a small difference in the spatial distribution of initial stress, and a very particular fraction of load transfer in order to generate realistic aftershocks.     

Seismicity study in Pournari reservoir area (W. Greece) 1981–2010

The spatial-temporal evolution of seismicity is examined, during the initial impoundment of Pournari reservoir located on Arachthos River (Western Greece), as well as for the next 30 years. The results show that, despite the relatively moderate-to-high seismicity from west to east, there is no remarkable earthquake in the vicinity before the first reservoir impoundment. Immediately after the impoundment (January 1981), and during the first 4 months, a considerable number of low-magnitude seismic events were recorded in the broader area of the dam. Moreover, two independent major events occurred on March 10, 1981 (M _L ?=?5.6) and April 10, 1981 (M _L ?=?4.7) with focal depths 13 and 10 km, respectively. The detailed analysis of the two corresponding aftershock sequences shows that they present different behaviors (e.g., larger b-value and lower magnitude of the main aftershock) than that of other aftershock sequences in Greece. This seismicity is probably due to triggering, via the water loading mechanism and the undrained response due to a flysch appearance on the reservoir basement. The activation of the thrust fault may be attributed to the bulging of evaporites that characterize the disordered structure of W. Greece, via possible water intake. The detailed processing of the recorded seismicity during the period 1982–2010, in comparison with the variations of Pournari Dam water level, shows an increase of shallow seismicity (h?≤?5 km) in the vicinity of the reservoir up to a 10-km distance—in contrast to the initial period, characterized by a number of deeper events due to the background response change from undrained to drained status.     

Some Probabilistic and Statistical Properties of the Seismic Regime of Zemmouri (Algeria) Seismoactive Zone

Statistical tests have been used to adjust the Zemmouri seismic data using a distribution function. The Pareto law has been used and the probabilities of various expected earthquakes were computed. A mathematical expression giving the quantiles was established. The extreme values limiting law confirmed the accuracy of the adjustment method. Using the moment magnitude scale, a probabilistic model was made to predict the occurrences of strong earthquakes. The seismic structure has been characterized by the slope of the recurrence plot γ, fractal dimension D, concentration parameter K_sr, Hurst exponents H_r and H_t. The values of D, γ, K_sr, H_r, and H_t diminished many months before the principal seismic shock (M = 6.9) of the studied seismoactive zone has occurred. Three stages of the deformation of the geophysical medium are manifested in the variation of the coefficient G% of the clustering of minor seismic events.     

G: Fracture energy,friction and dissipation in earthquakes

Recent estimates of fracture energy G ^′ in earthquakes show a power-law dependence with slip u which can be summarized as G ^′ ∝ u ^a where a is a positive real slightly larger than one. For cracks with sliding friction, fracture energy can be equated to G _f : the post-failure integral of the dynamic weakening curve. If the dominant dissipative process in earthquakes is friction, G ^′ and G _f should be comparable and show a similar scaling with slip. We test this hypothesis by analyzing experiments performed on various cohesive and non-cohesive rock types, under wet and dry conditions, with imposed deformation typical of seismic slip (normal stress of tens of MPa, target slip velocity > 1 m/s and fast accelerations ≈ 6.5 m/s²). The resulting fracture energy G _f is similar to the seismological estimates, with G _f and G ^′ being comparable over most of the slip range. However, G _f appears to saturate after several meters of slip, while in most of the reported earthquake sequences, G ^′ appears to increase further and surpasses G _f at large magnitudes. We analyze several possible causes of such discrepancy, in particular, additional off-fault damage in large natural earthquakes.     

Stochastic models of severe weather watches and warnings: transition probabilities

To alert the public to the possibility of tornado (T), hail (H), or convective wind (C), the National Weather Service (NWS) issues watches (V) and warnings (W). There are severe thunderstorm watches (SV), tornado watches (TV), and particularly dangerous situation watches (PV); and there are severe thunderstorm warnings (SW), and tornado warnings (TW). Two stochastic models are formulated that quantify uncertainty in severe weather alarms for the purpose of making decisions: a one-stage model for deciders who respond to warnings, and a two-stage model for deciders who respond to watches and warnings. The models identify all possible sequences of watches, warnings, and events, and characterize the associated uncertainties in terms of transition probabilities. The modeling approach is demonstrated on data from the NWS Norman, Oklahoma, warning area, years 2000–2007. The major findings are these. (i) Irrespective of its official designation, every warning type {SW, TW} predicts with a significant probability every event type {T, H, C}. (ii) An ordered intersection of SW and TW, defined as reinforced warning (RW), provides additional predictive information and outperforms SW and TW. (iii) A watch rarely leads directly to an event, and most frequently is false. But a watch that precedes a warning does matter. The watch type \(\{SV\), TV, \(PV\}\) is a predictor of the warning type \(\{SW\), RW, \(TW\}\) and of the warning performance: It sharpens the false alarm rate of the warning and the predictive probability of an event, and it increases the average lead time of the warning.     

Ground-motion models for average spectral acceleration in a period range: direct and indirect methods

Average spectral acceleration, AvgSA, is defined as the geometric mean of spectral acceleration values over a range of periods and it is a ground motion intensity measure used for structural response prediction. One of its advantages stands on the assumption that its distribution is computable from the available GMPEs for spectral acceleration, GMPE-SA, (called here indirect method) without the need for deriving new specific GMPEs for AvgSA, GMPE-AvgSA, (called here direct method). To what extent this assumption is valid, however, has never been verified. As such, we derived an empirical GMPE-AvgSA based on RESORCE ground motion dataset and we compared its predicted values with those from a GMPE-SA via the indirect approach. As expected, the results show that the indirect approach yields median AvgSA estimates that are identical to those of the direct approach. However, the estimates of AvgSA variance of the two methods are identical only if both the GMPE-SA and their empirical correlation coefficients among different SA ordinates are derived from the same record dataset.     

Verification of the reciprocal theorem on polar high-frequency radio paths during magnetic disturbances

Two high-latitude high-frequency (HF) paths of oblique-incidence ionospheric sounding were selected: Gor’kovskaya (GRK)–Dixon Island (DIK) and GRK–Lovozero (LOZ).The following propagation parameters were studied: F2MOF and F2MUF for the main signal, F2MOFl for lateral signals, EsMOF for a signal reflected from the sporadic ionospheric layer, and MOFm for the propagation modes of the M (or N) type. Here MOF and MUF are the maximum observed and usable frequencies, respectively. It was found that the reciprocal theorem is satisfied on two radio paths depending on the studied propagation parameter: the path length and location, time of day, and degree of magnetospheric disturbance. It was found that the reciprocal theorem is satisfied in 78, 50, and 30% of cases on the first path for the F2MUF values in the daytime under moderately disturbed conditions, in the morning, and at night, respectively. For the MOFm and moderately disturbed conditions on this path, the reciprocal theorem is satisfied in 40, 35, and 20% of cases in the daytime, morning, and at night, respectively. For the F2MUF values on the second path, reciprocity is satisfied in 73% of cases in the daytime and under moderately disturbed conditions and in 30% of cases at night during a quiet period. On this path, reciprocity is satisfied in 33% of all cases at night under strongly disturbed conditions. An unusual fact was also detected when ionograms of oblique-incidence ionospheric sounding were analyzed: the F2MUF values in the LOZ–GRK direction are almost always slightly (by 1–4%) larger than in the GRK–LOZ direction. A similar difference in the F2MUF values in the forward and backward directions can apparently be explained by the steep horizontal gradient in the electron density distribution from north to south in the reflection region of this path. Such a situation is not observed on the DIK–GRK line.     

The vertical distribution characteristics of integral turbulence statistics in the atmospheric boundary layer over an urban area in Beijing

Turbulence data(2008–2012) from a 325 m meteorological tower in Beijing, which consisted of three layers(47,140, and 280 m), was used to analyze the vertical distribution characteristics of turbulent transfer over Beijing city according to similarity theory. The conclusions were as follows.(1) Normalized standard deviations of wind speeds/ui * were plotted as a function only of a local stability parameter. The values under near-neutral conditions were 2.15, 1.61, and 1.19 at 47 m, 2.39, 1.75,and 1.21 at 140 m, and 2.51, 1.77, and 1.30 at 280 m, showing a clear increase with height. The normalized standard deviation of wind components fitted the 1/3 law under unstable stratification conditions and decreased with height under both stable and unstable conditions.(2) The normalized standard deviation of temperature fitted the.1/3 law in the free convection limit, but was quite scattered with different characteristics under near-neutral conditions. The normalized standard deviations of humidity and the CO2 concentration fitted the.1/3 law under unstable conditions, and remained constant under near-neutral and stable stratification. The normalized standard deviation of scalars, i.e., temperature, humidity, and CO2 concentration, all increased with height.(3) Compared with momentum, and the water vapor and CO2 concentrations, the turbulence correlation coefficient for heat was smaller under near-neutral conditions, but larger under both stable and unstable conditions. A dissimilarity between heat, and the water vapor and CO2 concentrations was observed in urban areas. The relative correlation coefficients between heat and each of momentum, humidity, and CO2 concentration(|rwT/ruw|, |rwT/rwc| and |rwT/ruq|) in the lower layers were always larger than in higher layers, except for the relative correlation coefficient between heat and humidity in an unstable stratification. Therefore, the ratio between heat and each of momentum, humidity, and CO2 concentration decreased with height.     

Regeneration and utilization of nutrients during collapse of a <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mesodinium rubrum</Emphasis> red tide and its influence on phytoplankton species composition

High-biomass red tides occur frequently in some semi-enclosed bays of Hong Kong where ambient nutrients are not high enough to support such a high phytoplankton biomass. These high-biomass red tides release massive inorganic nutrients into local waters during their collapse. We hypothesized that the massive inorganic nutrients released from the collapse of red tides would fuel growth of other phytoplankton species. This could influence phytoplankton species composition. We tested the hypothesis using a red tide event caused by Mesodinium rubrum (M. rubrum) in a semi-enclosed bay, Port Shelter. The red tide patch had a cell density as high as 5.0×10⁵ cells L^?1, and high chlorophyll a (63.71 μg L^?1). Ambient inorganic nutrients (nitrate: \(\rm{NO}_3^-\), ammonium: \(\rm{NH}_4^+\), phosphate: \(\rm{PO}_4^{3-}\), silicate: \(\rm{SiO}_4^{3-}\)) were low both in the red tide patch and the non-red-tide patch (clear waters outside the red tide patch). Nutrient addition experiments were conducted by adding all the inorganic nutrients to water samples from the two patches followed by incubation for 9 days. The results showed that the addition of inorganic nutrients did not sustain high M. rubrum cell density, which collapsed after day 1, and did not drive M. rubrum in the non-red-tide patch sample to the same high-cell density in the red tide patch sample. This confirmed that nutrients were not the driving factor for the formation of this red tide event, or for its collapse. The death of M. rubrum after day 1 released high concentrations of \(\rm{NO}_3^-\), \(\rm{PO}_4^{3-}\), \(\rm{SiO}_4^{3-}\), \(\rm{NH}_4^+\), and urea. Bacterial abundance and heterotrophic activity increased, reaching the highest on day 3 or 4, and decreased as cell density of M. rubrum declined. The released nutrients stimulated growth of diatoms, such as Chaetoceros affinis var. circinalis, Thalassiothrix frauenfeldii, and Nitzschia sp., particularly with additions of \(\rm{SiO}_4^{3-}\) treatments, and other species. These results demonstrated that initiation of M. rubrum red tides in the bay was not directly driven by nutrients. However, the massive inorganic nutrients released from the collapse of the red tide could induce a second bloom in low-ambient nutrient water, influencing phytoplankton species composition.     

Comparison of Bayesian estimates of peak ground acceleration (<Emphasis Type="Italic">A</Emphasis>max) with PSHA in Iran

Bayesian probability theory is an appropriate and useful method for estimating parameters in seismic hazard analysis. The analysis in Bayesian approaches is based on a posterior belief, also their special ability is to take into account the uncertainty of parameters in probabilistic relations and a priori knowledge. In this study, we benefited the Bayesian approach in order to estimate maximum values of peak ground acceleration (A_max) also quantiles of the relevant probabilistic distributions are figured out in a desired future interval time in Iran. The main assumptions are Poissonian character of the seismic events flow and properties of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution law. The map of maximum possible values of A_max and also map of 90% quantile of distribution of maximum values of A_max on a future interval time 100 years is presented. According to the results, the maximum value of the A_max is estimated for Bandar Abbas as 0.3g and the minimum one is attributed to Esfahan as 0.03g. Finally, the estimated values in Bayesian approach are compared with what was presented applying probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) methods based on the conventional Cornel (1968) method. The distribution function of A_max for future time intervals of 100 and 475 years are calculated for confidence limit of probability level of 90%.     

Homologous temperature of olivine: Implications for creep of the upper mantle and fabric transitions in olivine

The homologues temperature of a crystalline material is defined as T/T_m, where T is temperature and T_m is the melting(solidus) temperature in Kelvin. It has been widely used to compare the creep strength of crystalline materials. The melting temperature of olivine system,(Mg,Fe)_2SiO_4, decreases with increasing iron content and water content, and increases with confining pressure. At high pressure, phase transition will lead to a sharp change in the melting curve of olivine. After calibrating previous melting experiments on fayalite(Fe_2SiO_4), the triple point of fayalite-Fe_2SiO_4 spinel-liquid is determined to be at 6.4 GPa and 1793 K. Using the generalized means, the solidus and liquidus of dry olivine are described as a function of iron content and pressure up to 6.4 GPa. The change of T/T_m of olivine with depth allows us to compare the strength of the upper mantle with different thermal states and olivine composition. The transition from semi-brittle to ductile deformation in the upper mantle occurs at a depth where T/T_m of olivine equals 0.5. The lithospheric mantle beneath cratons shows much smaller T/T_m of olivine than orogens and extensional basins until the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary where T/T_m 0.66, suggesting a stronger lithosphere beneath cratons. In addition, T/T_m is used to analyze deformation experiments on olivine. The results indicate that the effect of water on fabric transitions in olivine is closely related with pressure. The hydrogen-weakening effect and its relationship with T/T_m of olivine need further investigation. Below 6.4 GPa(200 km), T/T_m of olivine controls the transition of dislocation glide from [100] slip to [001] slip. Under the strain rate of 10~(-12)–10~(-15) s~(-1) and low stress in the upper mantle, the [100](010) slip system(A-type fabric) becomes dominant when T/T_m 0.55–0.60. When T/T_m 0.55–0.60, [001] slip is easier and low T/T_m favors the operation of [001](100) slip system(C-type fabric). This is consistent with the widely observed A-type olivine fabric in naturally deformed peridotites, and the C-type olivine fabric in peridotites that experienced deep subduction in ultrahigh-pressure metamorphic terranes. However, the B-type fabric will develop under high stress and relatively low T/T_m. Therefore, the homologues temperature of olivine established a bridge to extrapolate deformation experiments to rheology of the upper mantle. Seismic anisotropy of the upper mantle beneath cratons should be simulated using a four-layer model with the relic A-type fabric in the upper lithospheric mantle, the B-type fabric in the middle layer, the newly formed A- or B-type fabric near the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary, and the asthenosphere dominated by diffusion creep below the Lehmann discontinuity. Knowledge about transition mechanisms of olivine fabrics is critical for tracing the water distribution and mantle flow from seismic anisotropy.