首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
In this study, pre-seismic and post-seismic total electron content (TEC) anomalies of 63 Mw?≥?5.0 earthquakes in Turkey (36°–42°N, 26°–45°E) were statistically investigated. The largest earthquake that occurred in Turkey during 2003–2016 is the Mw 7.1 Van earthquake on October 23, 2011. The TEC data of epicenters is obtained from CODE-GIM using a simple 4-point bivariate interpolation. The anomalies of TEC variations were determined by using a quartile-based running median process. In order to validate GIM results, we used the GPS-TEC data of available four IGS stations within the size of the Van earthquake preparation area. The anomalies that are detected by GIM and GPS-TEC show a similar pattern. Accordingly, the results obtained with CODE-GIM are reliable. The statistical results show that there are not prominent earthquake precursors for Mw?≤?6.0 earthquakes in Turkey.  相似文献   

2.
Age determination of paleotsunami sediment from Lombok Island, Indonesia, and surrounding area has been carried out using the 210 Pb method in BATAN Jakarta. The basic theory of this method assumes that weathering of sediments, including paleotsunami sediments, will result in 210 Pb enrichment. The principle of this method is to calculate 210 Pb contents accumulation in a particular sedimentation interval from the surface to the deeper buried sediments. The results are then converted into age or depositional time in years ago unit. The dating results from the paleotsunami sediments of the Gawah Pudak(S8°46’2.91’’, E115°56’34.23’’) and Gili Trawangan areas(S8°21’1.38’’, E116°2’36.6’’) indicate the Gawah Pudak sediments were deposited 37 years ago(c. in 1977)and 22 years ago(c. in 1992). Three paleotsunami sediments from Gili Trawangan were deposited 149 years ago(c. in 1865), 117 years ago(c. in 1897) and 42 years ago(c. in 1972). These results are then compared to the available Indonesian earthquake catalogue data. This study reveals that paleotsunami sediments around Lombok Islands, from older to younger, were caused by the 1857 earthquake(epicentre in Bali Sea; M7; S8°00’09.45’’,E115°29’56.41’’), 1897 earthquake(epicentre in Flores Sea;M5.5; S6°47’59.62’’, E120°48’03.5’’ or Sulu Sea earthquake; M8.5; 70 km NW of Basilan Island), the 1975 earthquake(Nusa Tenggara; S10°6’16.61’’, E123°48’09.39’’), 1977 earthquake(in Waingapu, Sumba; M8.0;S11°5’39.34’’, E118°27’50.86’’) and the 1992 earthquake(Flores; M7.8; S8°28’52.11’’, E121°53’44.3’’).  相似文献   

3.
Two zones of seismicity (ten events with M w = 7.0–7.7) stretching from Makran and the Eastern Himalaya to the Central and EasternTien Shan, respectively, formed over 11 years after the great Makran earthquake of 1945 (M w = 8.1). Two large earthquakes (M w = 7.7) hit theMakran area in 2013. In addition, two zones of seismicity (M ≥ 5.0) occurred 1–2 years after theMakran earthquake in September 24, 2013, stretching in the north-northeastern and north-northwestern directions. Two large Nepal earthquakes struck the southern extremity of the “eastern” zone (April 25, 2015, M w = 7.8 and May 12, 2015, M w = 7.3), and the Pamir earthquake (December 7, 2015, M w = 7.2) occurred near Sarez Lake eastw of the “western” zone. The available data indicate an increase in subhorizontal stresses in the region under study, which should accelerate the possible preparation of a series of large earthquakes, primarily in the area of the Central Tien Shan, between 70° and 79° E, where no large earthquakes (M w ≥ 7.0) have occurred since 1992.  相似文献   

4.
Ionospheric time delay (VΔt) variability using Global Positioning System (GPS) data over Akure (7.15°N, 5.12°E), Nigeria, has been studied. The observed variability of VΔt in comparison to older results of vertical total electron content (TEC) across similar regions has shown equivalent signatures. Higher monthly mean values of VΔt (MVΔt) were observed during daytime as compared to nighttime (pre- and post-midnight) hours in all months. The highest MVΔt observed in September during daytime hours range between ~6 and ~21 ns (~1.80 and ~6.30 m) and at post-midnight, they are in the range of ~1 to ~6 ns (~0.3 to ~1.80 m). The possible mechanisms responsible for this variability were discussed. Seasonal VΔt were investigated as well.  相似文献   

5.
The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake’s location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H?=?19 km), the seismic moment (M0?=?1.12×1017 Nm, M w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ?=?280°, δ?=?14°, λ?=?84°), the source radius (a?=?1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ s ~22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω?2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f)?=?500f0.9, κ?=?0.04 s, and fmax?=?infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ?=?70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤?200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6?≤?M w ?≤?6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.  相似文献   

6.
In this study, the seismic quiescence prior to hazardous earthquakes was analyzed along the Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone (SASZ). The seismicity data were screened statistically with mainshock earthquakes of M w?≥?4.4 reported during 1980–2015 being defined as the completeness database. In order to examine the possibility of using the seismic quiescence stage as a marker of subsequent earthquakes, the seismicity data reported prior to the eight major earthquakes along the SASZ were analyzed for changes in their seismicity rate using the statistical Z test. Iterative tests revealed that Z factors of N?=?50 events and T?=?2?years were optimal for detecting sudden rate changes such as quiescence and to map these spatially. The observed quiescence periods conformed to the subsequent major earthquake occurrences both spatially and temporally. Using suitable conditions obtained from successive retrospective tests, the seismicity rate changes were then mapped from the most up-to-date seismicity data available. This revealed three areas along the SASZ that might generate a major earthquake in the future: (i) Nicobar Islands (Z?=?6.7), (ii) the western offshore side of Sumatra Island (Z?=?7.1), and (iii) western Myanmar (Z?=?6.7). The performance of a stochastic test using a number of synthetic randomized catalogues indicated these levels of anomalous Z value showed the above anomaly is unlikely due to chance or random fluctuations of the earthquake. Thus, these three areas have a high possibility of generating a strong-to-major earthquake in the future.  相似文献   

7.
To study the prospective areas of upcoming strong-to-major earthquakes, i.e., M w  ≥ 6.0, a catalog of seismicity in the vicinity of the Thailand-Laos-Myanmar border region was generated and then investigated statistically. Based on the successful investigations of previous works, the seismicity rate change (Z value) technique was applied in this study. According to the completeness earthquake dataset, eight available case studies of strong-to-major earthquakes were investigated retrospectively. After iterative tests of the characteristic parameters concerning the number of earthquakes (N) and time window (T w ), the values of 50 and 1.2 years, respectively, were found to reveal an anomalous high Z-value peak (seismic quiescence) prior to the occurrence of six out of the eight major earthquake events studied. In addition, the location of the Z-value anomalies conformed fairly well to the epicenters of those earthquakes. Based on the investigation of correlation coefficient and the stochastic test of the Z values, the parameters used here (N = 50 events and T w  = 1.2 years) were suitable to determine the precursory Z value and not random phenomena. The Z values of this study and the frequency-magnitude distribution b values of a previous work both highlighted the same prospective areas that might generate an upcoming major earthquake: (i) some areas in the northern part of Laos and (ii) the eastern part of Myanmar.  相似文献   

8.
The modified scale M s(20R) is developed for the magnitude classification of the earthquakes of Russia’s Far East based on the surface wave amplitudes at regional distances. It extends the applicability of the classical Gutenberg scale M s(20) towards small epicentral distances (0.7°–20°). The magnitude is determined from the amplitude of the signal that is preliminarily bandpassed to extract the components with periods close to 20 s. The amplitude is measured either for the surface waves or, at fairly short distances of 0.7°–3°, for the inseparable wave group of the surface and shear waves. The main difference of the M s(20R) scale with the traditional M s(BB) Soloviev–Vanek scale is its firm spectral anchoring. This approach practically eliminated the problem of the significant (up to–0.5) regional and station anomalies characteristic of the M s(BB) scale in the conditions of the Far East. The absence of significant station and regional anomalies, as well as the strict spectral anchoring, make the M s(20R) scale advantageous when used for prompt decision making in tsunami warnings for the coasts of Russia’s Far East.  相似文献   

9.
In this paper, we analyze the TEC data for April 2013 observed at Agra station, India (geogr. lat. 27.2° N, long. 78° E) to examine the effect of earthquake of magnitude M = 7.8 which occurred on 16 April 2013 at Pakistan–Iran border region. We process the TEC data using the s statistical criterion to find out anomalous variation in TEC data. We also study the VLF propagation signal from NPM, Hawaii (21.42° N, 158° W), which is monitored at the same station (Agra station) in the light of this earthquake as well as solar flares. The nighttime fluctuation method is used to analyze the VLF data for the period of ±5 days from the day of earthquake (11–21 April 2013). The anomalous enhancements and depletions are found in TEC data on 1–9 days before the occurrence of event.  相似文献   

10.
In this study, we aim to improve the scaling between the moment magnitude (M W), local magnitude (M L), and the duration magnitude (M D) for 162 earthquakes in Shillong-Mikir plateau and its adjoining region of northeast India by extending the M W estimates to lower magnitude earthquakes using spectral analysis of P-waves from vertical component seismograms. The M W-M L and M W-M D relationships are determined by linear regression analysis. It is found that, M W values can be considered consistent with M L and M D, within 0.1 and 0.2 magnitude units respectively, in 90 % of the cases. The scaling relationships investigated comply well with similar relationships in other regions in the world and in other seismogenic areas in the northeast India region.  相似文献   

11.
Based on Center of Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE) global ionospheric map (GIM) data, a statistical analysis of local total electron content (TEC) anomalies before 121 low-depth (D ≤ 100 km) strong (M w ≥ 7.0) earthquakes has been made using the sliding median differential calculation method combining with a new approach of image processing technique. The results show that significant local TEC anomalies could be observed 0–6 days before 80 earthquakes, about 66.1% out of the total. The positive anomalies occur more often than negative ones. For 26 cases, both positive and negative anomalies are observed before the shock. The pre-earthquake TEC anomalies show local time recurrence for 38 earthquakes, which occur around the same local time on different days. The local time distribution of the pre-earthquake TEC anomalies mainly concentrates between 19 and 06 LT, roughly from the sunset to sunrise. Most of the pre-earthquake TEC anomalies do not locate above the epicenter but shift to the south. The pre-earthquake TEC anomalies could be extracted near the magnetic conjugate point of the epicenter for 40 events, which is 50% out of the total 80 cases with significant local TEC anomalies. In general, the signs of the anomalies around epicenter and its conjugate point are the same, but the abnormal magnitude and lasting time are not.  相似文献   

12.
A great earthquake of M S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.  相似文献   

13.
Aftershock hazard maps contain the essential information for search and rescue process, and re-occupation after a main-shock. Accordingly, the main purposes of this article are to study the aftershock decay parameters and to estimate the expected high-frequency ground motions (i.e., Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)) for recent large earthquakes in the Iranian plateau. For this aim, the Ahar-Varzaghan doublet earthquake (August 11, 2012; M N =6.5, M N =6.3), and the Ilam (Murmuri) earthquake (August 18, 2014 ; M N =6.2) have been selected. The earthquake catalogue has been collected based on the Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64(5), 1363-1367, 1974) temporal and spatial windowing technique. The magnitude of completeness and the seismicity parameters (a,??b) and the modified Omori law parameters (P,??K,??C) have been determined for these two earthquakes in the 14, 30, and 60 days after the mainshocks. Also, the temporal changes of parameters (a,??b,??P,??K,??C) have been studied. The aftershock hazard maps for the probability of exceedance (33%) have been computed in the time periods of 14, 30, and 60 days after the Ahar-Varzaghan and Ilam (Murmuri) earthquakes. For calculating the expected PGA of aftershocks, the regional and global ground motion prediction equations have been utilized. Amplification factor based on the site classes has also been implied in the calculation of PGA. These aftershock hazard maps show an agreement between the PGAs of large aftershocks and the forecasted PGAs. Also, the significant role of b parameter in the Ilam (Murmuri) probabilistic aftershock hazard maps has been investigated.  相似文献   

14.
The recent seismic activity in the eastern Aegean Sea, foregrounded by two major (ML?=?6.1 and ML?=?6.2) earthquakes occurring near Lesvos and Kos islands, respectively, is investigated in this work. Electromagnetic radiation measurements across different frequency bands and antenna orientations from a monitoring station in Agia Paraskevi, Lesvos Island, are analysed in order to reveal earthquake precursory signatures hidden in the electromagnetic data sequence. A straightforward, data-driven approach is employed in which day-to-day variations of the fractal characteristics of the measurements are adaptively monitored via a fractal spectral exponent similarity measure. The evolution of the fractal day-to-day variation in a 99-day period, which includes the two major earthquakes, shows a sustained, sudden increase lasting 1 to 4 days before every earthquake cluster of ML?=?4.0 and above. Most importantly, this day-to-day variation subsides shortly after and remains relatively low during the absence of earthquakes, thus alleviating the emergence of false alarms.  相似文献   

15.
The complex seismotectonic studies of the pleistoseist area of the Ilin-Tas earthquake (Ms = 6.9), one of the strongest seismic events ever recorded by the regional seismic network in northeastern Russia, are carried out. The structural tectonic position, morphotectonic features of present-day topography, active faults, and types of Cenozoic deformations of the epicentral zone are analyzed. The data of the instrumental observations are summarized, and the manifestations of the strong seismic events in the Yana–Indigirka segment of the Cherskii seismotectonic zone are considered. The explanation is suggested for the dynamical tectonic setting responsible for the Andrei-Tas seismic maximum. This setting is created by the influence of the Kolyma–Omolon indenter, which intrudes into the Cherskii seismotectonic zone from the region of the North American lithospheric plate and forms the main seismogenic structures of the Yana–Indigirka segment in the frontal zone (the Ilin-Tas anticlinorium). The highest seismic potential is noted in the Andrei- Tas block—the focus of the main tectonic impacts from the Kolyma–Omolon superterrane. The general trend of this block coincides with the orientation of the major axis of isoseismal ellipses (azimuth 50°–85°), which were determined from the observations of macroseismic effects on the ground after the Uyandina (Ms = 5.6), Andrei-Tas (Ms = 6.1), and Ilin-Tas (Ms = 6.9) earthquakes.  相似文献   

16.
The results of studying the process of underthrusting in the Pacific plate under Kamchatka are presented, and the phenomena associated with this process are described. The seismic component of the velocity of the plate underthrust is estimated on the basis of (1) data from the CMT (Centroid Moment Tensor) catalog and (2) the sequence of the strongest Kamchatka earthquakes. A flat site with a strike azimuth of 217° and a dip angle of 25° located at depths of 30–70 km is assumed to be the interface between the plunging plate and Kamchatka. From CMT focal mechanisms, the underthrust velocity is estimated at V = 0.7 cm/yr for the southern zone (located south of Cape Shipunski) and at V = 1.1 cm/yr for the central zone (from Cape Shipunski to Cape Kronotski). From pairs of the strongest earthquakes that have occurred successively since 1737, the underthrust velocity for the southern zone is estimated at V = 6.6–7.1 cm/yr (from two pairs) and for the central zone, at V = 6.6 cm/yr. The creep portion of the underthrust amounts to 5–15% of the total velocity (the velocity of motion of the Pacific plate is 8 cm/yr).  相似文献   

17.
The implications of the earthquakes that took place in the central Ionian Islands in 2014 (Cephalonia, M w6.1, M w5.9) and 2015 (Lefkas, M w6.4) are described based on repeat measurements of the local GPS networks in Cephalonia and Ithaca, and the available continuous GPS stations in the broader area. The Lefkas earthquake occurred on a branch of the Cephalonia Transform Fault, affecting Cephalonia with SE displacements gradually decreasing from north (~100 mm) to south (~10 mm). This earthquake revealed a near N–S dislocation boundary separating Paliki Peninsula in western Cephalonia from the rest of the island, as well as another NW–SE trending fault that separates kinematically the northern and southern parts of Paliki. Strain field calculations during the interseismic period (2014–2015) indicate compression between Ithaca and Cephalonia, while extension appears during the following co-seismic period (2015–2016) including the 2015 Lefkas earthquake. Additional tectonically active zones with differential kinematic characteristics were also identified locally.  相似文献   

18.
The time variations in the Gutenberg–Richter b-value are minutely studied based on the data of highly accurate seismological observations at the Garm prognostic site, Tajikistan, where a stationary network of seismic stations of the Complex Seismological Expedition (CSE) of Schmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth (IPE) of the USSR (Russian) Academy of Sciences was in operation from 1955 to 1992. A total of 93035 local earthquakes ranging from 0.0 to 6.3 in the Ml magnitudes are considered. The spatiotemporal fluctuations in the minimal magnitude of completeness of the earthquakes, Mc, are analyzed. The study considers a 25-year interval of the observations at the center of the observation system within which Mc = 0.9. It is shown that in most cases, the b-value and log10E2/3 experience characteristic time variations before the earthquakes with magnitudes higher than the minimal magnitude of the predicted earthquake (MPE). The 6-year anomaly in the parameters’ b-value, log10E2/3, and log10N associated with the single strongest earthquake with M = 6.3 that occurred in the observation region on October 26, 1984 is revealed. The inversely proportional relationship is established between the time variations in the b-value and the time variations in the velocities of seismic waves Vp and Vp/Vs. It is shown that the exponent p in the power function which links the time variations of the b-value and log10E2/3 is higher in the zones of crustal compression than in the zones of extension. It is simultaneously confirmed that the average b-value in the zones of compression is lower than in the zones of extension. It is established that in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 2.6, the time series of seismic activity log10Ni and the time series of the b-value are highly cross correlated with a coefficient of r ≈ 0.75, whereas in the case of earthquakes with M ≥ 0.9, the coefficient of cross correlation between these time series is close to zero (r ≈ 0.06). The law of variations in the slope of the lines approximating the relationship between the log10Ni time series in the different magnitude ranges (MMci) and b-value time series is obtained. It is hypothesized that the seismic activity of the earthquakes with high magnitudes can be estimated provided that the parameters of the time series of the b-value and time series of the number of earthquakes logNMi) in the range of low magnitudes are known. It is concluded that using the parameter log10N for prognostic estimates of the strong earthquakes only makes sense for earthquakes having moderate and large magnitudes. It is inferred that the time variations in the b-value are predominantly contributed by the time variations of the earthquakes with relatively large magnitudes.  相似文献   

19.
We continue applying the general concept of seismic risk analysis in a number of seismic regions worldwide by constructing regional seismic hazard maps based on morphostructural analysis, pattern recognition, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE), which generalizes the Gutenberg-Richter relationship making use of naturally fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size in a seismic region. The USLE stands for an empirical relationship log10N(M, L)?=?A?+?B·(5 – M)?+?C·log10L, where N(M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within a seismically prone area of linear dimension L. We use parameters A, B, and C of USLE to estimate, first, the expected maximum magnitude in a time interval at seismically prone nodes of the morphostructural scheme of the region under study, then map the corresponding expected ground shaking parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macro-seismic intensity). After a rigorous verification against the available seismic evidences in the past (usually, the observed instrumental PGA or the historically reported macro-seismic intensity), such a seismic hazard map is used to generate maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures (e.g., those based on census of population, buildings inventory). The methodology of seismic hazard and risk assessment is illustrated by application to the territory of Greater Caucasus and Crimea.  相似文献   

20.
The variations in the total electron content (TEC), obtained from the data of 11 ground-based GPS stations in the region (5°S–80°N; 110–160°E) in the period August 2–15, 2006, have been analyzed in order to search for possible ionospheric manifestations of the SAOMAI powerful typhoon (August 5–11, 2006) near the south-eastern coast of China. The global TEC maps (GIM) have also been used. In the region of the typhoon action during the magnetic storm of August 7, 2006, an intensification of the TEC variations in the evening local time within the 32–128 min periods range was detected. However, this effect was most probably caused by the dynamics of the irregular structure of the equatorial anomaly and by the disturbed geomagnetic situation (Kp ~ 3–6, Dst varied from ?74 to ?153 nT). The analysis of the diurnal variations in the absolute values of TEC and TEC variations with periods of 2–25 min did not reveal a substantial increase in the intensity and changes in the spectrum of the TEC variations in the period of typhoon action as compared to the adjacent days. Thus, we failed to detect ionospheric disturbances unambiguously related to the SAOMAI typhoon.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号