2004年苏门答腊地震的几个断层滑动模型的全球同震位移对比

2004年苏门答腊大地震后,不同作者根据地震波和/或GPS观测,提出了不同的断层错动模型.在利用同震位移观测资料反演断层滑动模型时,由于使用半无限空间均匀介质模型或半无限空间分层介质模型,一般只能利用近场位移GPS观测约束,无法利用远场资料,这些模型有时差别颇大,如何区别这些模型的优劣是一个仍尚未解决的问题.本文采用等效体力有限元方法,在考虑地球球形和分层的条件下,对四个不同作者提供的2004年苏门答腊地震的断层滑动模型计算全球同震位移.由于采用了球形模型,所以不仅可以把四个模型的近场位移计算结果与GPS数据进行对比,而且可以把远场位移计算结果与GPS数据进行对比.我们发现,垂直位移对断层滑动模型的依赖性小于水平位移.四个模型计算的近场位移与GPS位移符合程度均较好,但是四个模型计算的远场位移与GPS位移符合情况有很大不同,其中Chlieh等（2007）模型在近场与远场符合程度均很好,是四个模型中最好的.另外还探讨了断层反演数据资料、断层几何模型以及地球模型对计算结果的影响.对于特大地震,全球同震位移观测与计算值吻合程度的好坏是衡量断层滑动模型的合理性的一个重要依据.     

Effects of fault geometry and slip style on near-fault static displacements caused by the 1999 Chi-Chi,Taiwan earthquake

We investigated the fault geometry effects and the corresponding coseismic slip distribution using various proposed earthquake fault models for the Chi-Chi earthquake of 21 September 1999. The types of fault geometries are threefold: a simple planar fault plane, a two segmented planar fault plane and a three dimensional (3D) curved fault surface rupture propagation model. We derived the estimated spatial slip distribution from an inversion analysis of GPS coseismic displacement data and show that the 3D fault model is the preferred solution. The simple and segmented fault models lead to significant artificial slip distributions associated with the pre-defined fault geometry and the spatial distribution of GPS stations. The spatial distribution of coseismic slip deduced from the 3D fault model has three observable features: (1) the overall slip is concentrated at depth of less than 12 km, which may well correspond to a shallow-dipping detachment; (2) the maximum slip of about 10 m is located 45 km to the north of the epicenter; and (3) the slip vector is dominated by the dip-slip component. In addition, the results from the inversion of GPS data are consistent with those from the inversion analysis of teleseismic broadband data. A resolution analysis, further, demonstrates that the results are highly correlated with field GPS data studies when we used synthetic test data. The inversion of spatially distributed GPS data is highly sensitive to fault geometry. We conclude that the use of the 3D fault model is not only necessary but also certainly competent enough to well explain the inferred slip style and the observed static coseismic displacements.     

利用GPS观测资料分析2008年于田Ms7.3地震的同震位移及震后形变

2008年3月21日新疆于田发生Ms7.3级地震.本文通过处理、分析GPS数据,得到破裂断层北侧100 km附近的同震位移及震后形变信息.在观测区域GPS点监测到10 mm左右的同震位移,其中最大为南向14 mm,东向5 mm.同震位移呈现一致性的东南向运动特征,证实于田地震存在显著的左旋走滑分量.震后台站向西南方向运...     

InSAR约束下的2008年汶川地震同震和震后形变分析

2008年5月12日,青藏高原东缘的龙门山断裂带上发生了M_w7.9级汶川地震.本文通过分析覆盖汶川地震震中区域的ALOS/PALSAR像对的方位向偏移量来选择无明显电离层扰动影响的像对进行干涉处理,获取了高精度、连续的InSAR地表形变场.在此基础上,结合高精度GPS同震形变数据,采用同震、黏弹性松弛震后形变联合反演模型同时确定了汶川地震的同震滑动分布和龙门山地区的流变结构参数.研究结果表明,汶川地震是一个断层破裂非常复杂的地震事件,其中,北川段、岳家山段、虹口段和汉旺段的滑动以逆冲为主,而青川段以右旋走滑为主.滑动主要发生在10 km深度以上的区域,最大滑动量位于虹口段的东北端,达10.7 m.地震释放的总能量为9.28×10²⁰ N·m（M_w7.91）,与地震学的结果一致.联合反演模型确定的龙门山地区中下地壳的黏性系数为2×10¹⁸ Pa·s,为青藏高原东部地区的黏性系数提供了一个可靠的下限值.如果有更长时间的震后形变观测时间序列,将为该区域提供更为可靠的流变结构.     

Influence of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake on earthquake occurrence trend of active faults in Sichuan-Yunnan region

The Wenchuan earthquake coseismic deformation field is inferred from the coseismic dislocation data based on a 3-D geometric model of the active faults in Sichuan-Yunnan region. Then the potential dislocation displacement is inverted from the deformation field in the 3-D geometric model. While the faults' slip velocities are inverted from GPS and leveling data, which can be used as the long-term slip vector. After the potential dislocation displacements are projected to long-term slip direction, we have got the influence of Wenchuan earthquake on active faults in Sichuan-Yunnan region. The results show that the northwestern segment of Longmenshan fault, the southern segments of Xianshuihe fault, Anninghe fault, Zemuhe fault, northern and southern segments of Daliangshan fault, Mabian fault got earthquake risks advanced of 305, 19, 12, 9.1 and 18, 51 years respectively in the eastern part of Sichuan and Yunnan. The Lijiang-Xiaojinhe fault, Nujiang fault, Longling-Lancang fault, Nantinghe fault and Zhongdian fault also got earthquake risks advanced in the western part of Sichuan-Yunnan region. Whereas the northwestern segment of Xianshuihe fault and Xiaojiang fault got earthquake risks reduced after the Wenchuan earthquake.     

日本熊本MW7.0地震同震位移场和震源滑动模型反演

利用2016年4月16日日本熊本M_W7.0地震震中周围94个近场强震动台的观测资料和新近改进的强震经验基线校正方法SMBLOC,尝试解算并绘制了一个内陆M7左右走滑型地震的同震位移场全貌,并反演了其震源滑动模型.与日本国土地理院(GSI)公布的该地震57个GPS同震位移结果的比较显示,两种完全不同资料、不同解算方法给出的水平同震位移场的最大幅值均为100 cm左右,均呈右旋走滑为主兼具部分正断分量的震源机制.强震最大水平和垂直永久位移分别为104.5 cm和58.0 cm, 分别出现在震中东北侧的KMMH162台和KMM005台.两种资料单独以及联合反演的震源滑动模型均表明,此次地震为北东侧破裂为主并呈双事件特征,且主要滑动均不在初始破裂点附近, 而是集中于第二次事件周围,即距离初始破裂点东北侧约20 km处的走向长约40 km、倾向宽约20 km的范围内.基于强震和GPS模型所得的最大滑动量分别为5.10 m和5.87 m,量级一致,反演矩震级均为M_W7.1左右;主破裂区近地表滑动量比野外调查结果略微偏大,可能与数值效应有关.此外,还利用不同方法得到的解算结果比较了熊本地震特有的12组台间距在3 km以内的GPS-强震台站对各自的三分量同震位移,其结果表明对于M7左右的地震而言,SMBLOC方法解算同震位移时方向和幅值的可靠性下限约为2 cm.      

Aftershock Distribution as a Constraint on the Geodetic Model of Coseismic Slip for the 2004 Parkfield Earthquake

Several studies of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake have linked the spatial distribution of the event’s aftershocks to the mainshock slip distribution on the fault. Using geodetic data, we find a model of coseismic slip for the 2004 Parkfield earthquake with the constraint that the edges of coseismic slip patches align with aftershocks. The constraint is applied by encouraging the curvature of coseismic slip in each model cell to be equal to the negative of the curvature of seismicity density. The large patch of peak slip about 15 km northwest of the 2004 hypocenter found in the curvature-constrained model is in good agreement in location and amplitude with previous geodetic studies and the majority of strong motion studies. The curvature-constrained solution shows slip primarily between aftershock “streaks” with the continuation of moderate levels of slip to the southeast. These observations are in good agreement with strong motion studies, but inconsistent with the majority of published geodetic slip models. Southeast of the 2004 hypocenter, a patch of peak slip observed in strong motion studies is absent from our curvature-constrained model, but the available GPS data do not resolve slip in this region. We conclude that the geodetic slip model constrained by the aftershock distribution fits the geodetic data quite well and that inconsistencies between models derived from seismic and geodetic data can be attributed largely to resolution issues.     

2016年8月24日意大利佩鲁贾MW 6.2级地震同震位移场估计和震源滑动模型反演

利用改进的自动经验基线校正方法SMBLOC,对2016年8月24日意大利佩鲁贾MW 6.2级地震震中周围约60 km内的近场强震记录进行基线校正并尝试给出同震位移场,与GPS观测结果进行对比分析,分别独立和联合两种资料反演震源滑动模型,并根据震源模型进一步给出全空间预测位移场分布.研究结果表明:(1)两种不同的资料给出的水平位移场幅值均为cm级,且均表明断层的错动以正断为主.(2)两种同震位移场分别独立和联合反演所得的震源静态滑动范围基本一致,最大滑动均发生在震中东北侧,强震模型表现出明显的双事件特征,较大滑动分布在震中东北侧和东南侧,GPS模型在震中东南侧的滑动相对较小,其双事件特征不明显.两种模型的最大滑动量分别为0.96 m和0.86 m,较为一致,反演的矩震级均在MW 6.3左右.(3)根据震源滑动模型计算所得的佩鲁贾地震全空间预测的水平同震位移场中最大位移分布区域与震后报告中受灾严重的地区基本一致.表明在一定的条件下,利用SMBLOC方法解算震级较小的MW 6.0左右地震强震记录的同震位移场,并反演震源滑动模型具有一定的可行性,且其同震位移场和滑动模型可为震后灾害快速评估、救援力量分配、余震趋势判定等快速应急响应工作提供参考依据.     

Far field deformation analysis after the Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake constrained by cGPS data

This study estimates the far field coseismic deformation of China and its surrounding areas caused by the Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake of Japan using continuous GPS (cGPS) data and final orbits released by International GNSS Service (IGS). Based on these data, we feature the coseismic offsets of several plates affected by the event. Static far field coseismic offsets greater than 2 mm are detected in a wide area of China, which extends as far as about 3,000 km off the epicenter, consisting of that of the 2010 Maule, Chile earthquake. In northeast China, displacements up to 32.7 mm toward southeast are observed; meanwhile, offsets in North China reach about 5–11 mm toward east. Coseismic jumps of about 2–5 mm are measured in South China toward southeast. The southwest extrusion of the Philippine Sea plate is verified by GPS slip vectors, showing that the Philippine Sea plate is decoupled from the Pacific plate by the earthquake. We also infer that the Amurian plate and the Okhotsk plate couple well according to relatively continuous GPS offsets in these plates. Furthermore, the dense far field cGPS offsets due to the Tohoku event hopefully provide opportunities to model the coseismic slip distribution.     

近场位移数据约束的2013年芦山地震破裂模型及其构造意义

以往的研究显示了2013年芦山MS7.0级地震发震断层的隐伏逆冲断层基本特征,但是破裂深部细节差异较大.本文以近场密集的同震形变数据约束芦山地震破裂面几何形状及滑动分布,结果显示芦山地震破裂面具有铲状结构,上部16km为43°~50°高角度断层,深部16~25km为小于27°的低角度断层,破裂深度与重定位的余震分布深度一致.破裂分布模型清楚显示上下两个断层上各有一个滑动幅度大于0.5m的峰值破裂区,最大滑动量1.5m位于13km深处.重定位的余震分布基本都落在最大滑动量等值线外部库仑应力增加的区域.芦山地震破裂面几何形状和滑动分布特征与2008年汶川MS8.0级地震映秀—北川破裂相似,支持龙门山冲断带发育大规模的近水平滑脱层,是青藏高原东缘地壳缩短增厚、龙门山挤压隆升的重要证据.     

2014年新疆于田MS7.3地震同震位移及位错反演研究

利用于田震中300 km范围内的1个GPS连续站和12个GPS流动站数据,解算得到了2014年新疆于田M_S7.3地震地表同震位移,并反演了发震断层滑动分布,探讨此次地震对周边断裂的影响.地表同震位移结果显示,GPS观测到的同震位移范围在平行发震断裂带的北东-南西向约210 km,垂直发震断裂带的北西-南东方向约为120 km,同震位移量大于10 mm的测站位于震中距约120 km以内;同震位移特征整体表现为北东-南西方向的左旋走滑和北西-南东方向的拉张特征,其中在北东-南西方向,I069测站位移最大,约为32.1 mm,在北西-南东方向,XJYT测站位移最大,约为28.1 mm;位错反演结果表明,最大滑动位于北纬36.05°,东经82.60°,位于深部约16.6 km,最大错动量为2.75 m,反演震级为M_W7.0,同震错动呈椭圆形分布,以左旋走滑为主并具有正倾滑分量,两者最大比值约为2.5：1,同震错动延伸至地表,并向北东方向延伸,总破裂长度约50 km,地表最大错动约1.0 m;同震水平位移场模拟结果显示贡嘎错断裂、康西瓦断裂和普鲁断裂等不同位置主应变特征具有差异性,这种差异特征是否影响断裂带以及周围区域的应力构造特征,值得关注.     

芦山MS7.0地震前水平位移和同震水平位移研究

本文利用“中国地壳运动观测网络（二期）”多个GPS连续观测站观测数据处理结果,将2013年4月20日四川芦山MS7.0地震区域参考框架同震水平位移与全球参考框架同震水平位移进行比较,结果表明两组框架解一致,说明两种参考框架均可当作位错参考框架,也即全球参考框架同震水平位移也可视为区域参考框架同震水平位移．区域参考框架下GPS连续观测站地震前的水平位移和同震水平位移结果表明,震前数年,SCTQ站西侧的GPS站构造运动十分显著,而该站水平位移却很小,即出现反常的闭锁．但该站的同震水平位移使其弹性回跳至正常构造水平位移水平,因此SCTQ站震前的位移闭锁是水平位移空间分布中的异常,是芦山MS7.0地震的前兆．水平位移时空变化表明,该站震前和震时位移完全符合里德的弹性回跳理论．区域参考框架中位移时间系列和同震水平位移的综合研究有助于对芦山地震地壳运动前兆的认识和解释．尽管本文未能直接采用其它GPS连续观测站的资料,但结合本文和其它研究结果可以证实,震中附近其它站地震前后的变化与SCTQ站类似．基于芦山地震前水平位移和同震水平位移及其与前兆关系的研究,本文进一步讨论了GPS监测网的布设、 数据处理和分析等问题．      

COSEISMIC DISPLACEMENT FIELD OF THE WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE DERIVED FROM STRONG MOTION RECORDS AND APPLICATION IN SLIP INVERSION

The development of high-rate GNSS seismology and seismic observation methods has provided technical support for acquiring the near-field real-time displacement time series during earthquake. But in practice, the limited number of GNSS continuous stations hardly meets the requirement of near-field quasi-real-time coseismic displacement observation, while the macroseismographs could be an important complement. Compared with high-rate GNSS, macroseismograph has better sensitivity, higher resolution(100~200Hz)and larger dynamic range, and the most importantly, lower cost. However, baseline drift exists in strong-motion data, which limits its widespread use. This paper aims to prove the feasibility and reliability of strong motion data in acquiring seismic displacement sequences, as a supplement to high-rate GNSS. In this study, we have analyzed the strong-motion data of Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake in Longmenshan fault zone, based on the automatic scheme for empirical baseline correction proposed by Wang et al., which fits the uncorrected displacement by polynomial to obtain the fitting parameters, and then the baseline correction is completed in the velocity sequence. Through correction processing and quadratic integration, the static coseismic displacement field and displacement time series are obtained. Comparison of the displacement time series from the strong motions with the result of high-rate GPS shows a good coincidence. We have worked out the coseismic displacement field in the large area of Wenchuan earthquake using GPS data and strong motion data. The coseismic displacement fields calculated from GPS and strong motions are consistent with each other in terms of magnitude, direction and distribution patterns. High-precision coseismic deformation can provide better data constraint for fault slip inversion. To verify the influence of strong-motion data on slip distribution in Wenchuan earthquake, we used strong motion, GPS and InSAR data to estimate the stress drop, moment magnitude and coseismic slip model, and our results agreed with those of the previous studies. In addition, the inversion results of different data are different and complementary to some extent. The use of strong-motion data supplements the slip of the fault in the 180km segment and the 270~300km segment, thus making the inversion results of fault slip more comprehensive. From this result, we can draw the following conclusions:1)Based on the robust baseline correction method, the use of strong motion data, as an important complement to high-rate GNSS, can obtain reliable surface displacement after the earthquake. 2)The strong motion data provide an effective method to study the coseismic displacement sequence, the surface rupture process and quick seismogenic parameters acquisition. 3)The combination of multiple data can significantly improve the data coverage and give play to the advantages of different data. Therefore, it is suggested to combine multiple data(GPS, strong motion, InSAR, etc.)for joint inversion to improve the stability of fault slip model.     

用多种数据构建2008年汶川特大地震同震位移场

本文主要以GPS、精密水准观测和卫星SAR遥感图像分析2008年汶川特大地震同震位移特征.GPS数据包括:(1)四川盆地和川西高原地区各类国家等级GPS网点复测;(2)沿破裂带国家天文大地网GPS复测.前者推算的同震位移测定精度优于2 cm,后者6~8 cm.SAR遥感资料包括:(1)ALOS 卫星升轨相位干涉图像,精度优于8 cm;(2)ALOS和ENVISAT卫星影像合成的三维位移图,精度优于0.5 m.同震位移场显示,断层下盘(四川盆地)变形总体呈扇形集中指向震中,断层上盘(龙门山)变形总体上呈逆时针旋转态势,最大的实测水平位移5.5 m.汶川、理县、茂县等地测站位移指向破裂带方向,而平武、青川等地测站逐渐转变为平行,乃至远离破裂带方向,与汶川地震逆冲兼走滑的破裂特征一致.断层上盘大幅隆升,下盘靠近断层的区域以下沉为主,远场表现为幅度很小的隆升,垂直升降区域间,有一条与龙泉山断裂带平行的升降过渡带,调节龙泉断层的应力状态.用实测变形场检验多个地震波破裂模型表明,近场(距离断层50 km) 模型形变准确度可达40~50 cm, 远场精度优于5 cm.     

基于InSAR和GPS观测数据的尼泊尔地震发震断层特征参数联合反演研究

利用日本ALOS-2和欧空局Sentinel-1A卫星获得的尼泊尔地震同震形变场,结合GPS同震位移数据,联合反演了断层滑动分布特征和空间展布.结果表明:尼泊尔地震的同震形变场主要集中在150km×100km的范围内,且分为南北两个相邻的形变中心,南形变中心的视线向抬升量约为1.2m,北形变中心的视线向沉降量约为0.8m,均位于发震断层上盘.位于形变抬升区的KKN4和NAST两个GPS站,抬升量和南向运动量均达到了m级,而远离震区的其他GPS台水平和垂直观测量均在1cm以内.联合反演得到的断层位错分布主要集中在沿走向150km,沿倾向70km的范围内,最大滑动量为5.59m,平均滑动量为0.94m.断层面倾角在浅部约为7°,随着深度增加,倾角逐渐变大,到垂直深度20km时倾角接近12°;5月12日MW7.2级余震位于主震破裂区的"凹"型滑动缺损区域;主震破裂区的上边界与MBT空间位置十分吻合,主震破裂区主要集中的MBT以北50~60km处,垂直深度为8~9km,倾角为9°,继续向北时主震破裂面以10°~12°的倾角向深延伸,在18~20km可能与MHT交汇.因此,初步判定MBT为此次地震的发震断层.     

2004年苏门答腊地震粘滞性松弛效应对华南地区地壳水平活动的影响

2004年苏门答腊地震后, 不同学者根据不同观测数据(地震波、 GPS), 得到了此次地震的断层滑动模型。 反演过程中使用半无限空间模型时, 无法利用远场观测数据进行约束, 势必影响远场形变的解释。 基于Hoechner等使用的断层几何模型和GPS同震位移数据, 本研究利用球体位错理论反演方法反演了2004年苏门答腊地震断层滑动模型, 得到的矩震级为9.24, 最大滑移量为30.4 m, 由于考虑了曲率的效应, 该模型在远场同震位移的计算结果与GPS数据吻合较好。 然后, 选取了2001—2004年和2004—2007年两期的GPS水平位移速度场, 研究2004年苏门答腊地震对华南地区地壳水平活动的影响, 从两期的GPS水平位移速度场差异可以看出地震后华南块体有向西南方向的运动趋势, 华南块体受到此次地震明显的震后影响。 最后, 基于反演得到的断层模型, 利用Tanaka等提出的粘弹性球体位错理论对华南块体两期GPS水平位移速度场差异进行模拟, 得到华南块体内部粘滞性系数为2×10¹⁹ Pa·s, 当考虑地幔粘滞性松弛效应后, 两期的速度场差异的均方根值由3.2 mm减少为1.9 mm。 可见在研究2004年前后中国大陆GPS水平位移速度场时, 若继续以华南块体为基准, 需考虑此次地震的地幔粘滞性松弛效应。     

GPS-derived Deformation of the Central Andes Including the 1995 Antofagasta Mw = 8.0 Earthquake

—In order to study both the interplate seismic loading cycle and the distribution of intraplate deformation of the Andes, a 215 site GPS network covering Chile and the western part of Argentina was selected, monumented and observed in 1993 and 1994. A dense part of the network in northern Chile and northwest Argentina, comprising some 70 sites, was re-observed after two years in October/November, 1995. The M _w = 8.0 Antofagasta (North Chile) earthquake of 30th July, 1995 took place between the two observations. The city of Antofagasta shifted 80 cm westwards by this event and the displacement still reached 10 cm at locations 300 km from the trench. Three different deformation processes have been considered for modeling the measured displacements (1) interseismic accumulation of elastic strain due to subduction coupling, (2) coseismic strain release during the Antofagasta earthquake and (3) crustal shortening in the Sub-Andes.¶Eastward displacement of the sites to the north and to the south of the area affected by the earthquake is due to the interseismic accumulation of elastic deformation. Assuming a uniform slip model of interseismic coupling, the observed displacements at the coast require a fully locked subduction interface and a depth of seismic coupling of 50 km. The geodetically derived fault plane parameters of the Antofagasta earthquake are consistent with results derived from wave-form modeling of seismolog ical data. The coseismic slip predicted by the variable slip model reaches values of 3.2 m in the dip-slip and 1.4 m in the strike-slip directions. The derived rake is 66°. Our geodetic results suggest that the oblique Nazca–South American plate convergence is accommodated by oblique earthquake slip with no slip partitioning. The observed displacements in the back-arc indicate a present-day crustal shortening rate of 3–4 mm/year which is significantly slower than the average of 10 mm/year experienced during the evolution of the Andean plateau.     

2014年美国加州纳帕M_W6.1地震断层参数的Sentinel-1A InSAR反演

2014年8月24日,在美国加州旧金山海湾北部的纳帕地区发生了MW6.1地震.发震断层是西纳帕断裂系统中的一部分,但是该断层之前并未被足够重视.本文利用欧洲空间局最近发射成功并刚刚投入使用的Sentinel-1A卫星获取的第一对同震干涉像对(20140807-20140831),得到了该地震的地表同震形变场,结合震后24h内区域GPS同震形变资料作为约束条件,反演了纳帕地震的断层几何参数以及滑动分布.Sentinel-1A干涉结果表明,此次地震造成了明显的地面形变,视线向最大抬升和最大沉降量均达到了10cm.联合反演结果表明,该发震断层的走向为344°,倾角为80°.主要破裂以右旋走滑为主,平均倾滑角为-146.5°,最大倾滑量达到了1.1m,位于地表下约4km,存在明显的滑动亏损现象.此次地震,累计释放地震矩达1.5×1018 N·m,约合矩震级MW6.1.该结果略小于InSAR单独约束结果,可能与Sentinel-1A像对中包含的快速震后形变分量有关.     

汶川地震同震形变场对川滇地区主要活动断裂地震发生趋势的影响

以所建立的川滇地区主要活动块体及其周边断裂带的模型和前期利用GPS及水准资料反演所得到的断裂带长期运动速率作为基础,将汶川地震引起的同震错动量加入到三维断裂几何模型中,计算出汶川地震大范围的同震形变场,然后基于该同震形变场和活动断裂三维几何模型反演了各条断裂对该同震形变场的反映,并通过与各断裂带长期运动速率对比,得到了汶川地震对川滇地区各主要活动断裂带发震趋势的影响．结果表明,在汶川地震引起的同震形变场作用下,在川滇交界东部地区,龙门山断裂带南西段地震危险性提前了305a,鲜水河断裂带南东段大致提前了19a,安宁河断裂带和则木河断裂带分别提前了21a和12a,大凉山断裂带北段和南段分别提前了9.1a和18a,马边断裂带的地震危险性则提前了51a;对川滇交界西部的丽江——小金河断裂带南西段、怒江断裂带、龙陵——澜沧断裂带、南汀河断裂带、中甸断裂带等断裂带地震的能量积累也有促进作用;相反在鲜水河断裂带北西段、小江断裂带等历史地震频发的断裂带上,地震危险性具有一定的减速作用．      

Determining fault slip distribution of the Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake with GPS and InSAR data using triangular dislocation elements

The reactivation of the Chelungpu fault triggered the 20 September 1999 Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake (M_w = 7.6) which caused a 100-km long surface rupture that trends north–south. We reconstruct the fault geometry using 1068 planar triangular dislocation elements that approximate more realistically the curved three-dimensional fault surface. The fault slip distribution is then determined with the observed GPS coseismic displacements as well as interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data. The results show that our smooth 3D fault slip model has improved the fit to the geodetic data by 44% compared with the previously published inversions. The slip distribution obtained both by inversion of GPS data only and by joint inversion of GPS and InSAR data indicates that notable slips occur on the sub-horizontal décollement at the depth of 6.1–8.9 km.