Seismic sea-waves in the Marmara Sea region during the last 20 centuries

An examination of historical sources confirms thatrelatively little can be found about seismic sea-waves in the Marmara Searegion. We find that during the last 20 centuries there have been 16earthquakes which seem to be associated with seismic sea-waves, six ofwhich were damaging. Most of these events were reported from the northcentral and north-east coast of the Sea of Marmara and from the Gulf ofIzmit, from where there is some evidence that the source mechanism ofsome of them was coastal mass failures and sliding of submarine sediments.Another 16 sea-waves reported in literature are found to be spuriousevents.     

Earthquake hazard in Marmara Region, Turkey

Earthquake hazard in the Marmara Region, Turkey has been investigated using time-independent probabilistic (simple Poissonian) and time-dependent probabilistic (renewal) models. The study culminated in hazard maps of the Marmara Region depicting peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral accelerations (SA)'s at 0.2 and 1 s periods corresponding to 10 and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 yrs. The historical seismicity, the tectonic models and the known slip rates along the faults constitute the main data used in the assignment. Based on recent findings it has been possible to provide a fault segmentation model for the Marmara Sea. For the main Marmara Fault this model essentially identifies fault segments for different structural, tectonic and geometrical features and historical earthquake occurrences. The damage distribution and pattern of the historical earthquakes have been carefully correlated with this fault segmentation model. The inter-event time period between characteristic earthquakes in these segments is consistently estimated by dividing the seismic slip estimated from the earthquake catalog by the GPS-derived slip rate of 22±3 mm/yr. The remaining segments in the eastern and southern Marmara region are also identified using recent geological, geophysical studies and historical earthquakes. The model assumes that seismic energy along the segments is released by characteristic earthquakes. For the probabilistic studies characteristic earthquake based recurrence relationships are used. Assuming normal distribution of inter-arrival times of characteristic earthquakes, the ‘mean recurrence time’, ‘covariance’ and the ‘time since last earthquake’ are developed for each segment. For the renewal model, the conditional probability for each fault segment is calculated from the mean recurrence interval of the characteristic earthquake, the elapsed time since the last major earthquake and the exposure period. The probabilities are conditional since they change as a function of the time elapsed since the last earthquake. For the background earthquake activity, a spatially smoothed seismicity is determined for each cell of a grid composed of cells of size 0.005°×0.005°. The ground motions are determined for soft rock (NEHRP B/C boundary) conditions. Western US-based attenuation relationships are utilized, since they show a good correlation with the attenuation characteristics of ground motion in the Marmara region. The possibility, that an event ruptures several fault segments (i.e. cascading), is also taken into account and investigated by two possible models of cascading. Differences between Poissonian and renewal models, and also the effect of cascading have been discussed with the help of PGA ratio maps.     

The Marmara Sea region: Seismic behaviour in time and the likelihood of another large earthquake near Istanbul (Turkey)

The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) extends for about 1500 km from Karliova to the east, to the Egean Sea in the west. The Marmara region, located near the western end of the NAF, is a tectonically active zone characterized by the transition between a strike slip stress regime and an extensional one in the Aegean Sea. Microseismic studies performed around the Marmara Sea in 1995 [Tectonophysics 316, 2000, 1], and just before the 1999 Izmit Earthquake Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 92, 2002a, 361;J. Seismol. 6, 2002b, 287) permitted the analysis of the evolution of seismicity connected to this destructive earthquake and its sequels. Several observations indicate that the aftershock distribution fits well the EW orientation of the NAF, but the ruptures are not simple and linear as a first glance would suggest. Instead they are segmented in at least five pieces as shown by the slip variation and aftershock clusters, showing complexity at different scales (Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 92, 2002a, 361). There is still a gap, across the northern border of the Marmara Sea that has not ruptured, and this is the only sector that did not break on the NAF since the 1939 great Erzincan earthquake. Will it rupture as a whole with a large magnitude earthquake, or by segments with smaller magnitude events? The Hurst analysis of the overall behaviour of the seismicity in the Marmara region since historical times shows that if a large earthquake occurs in the near future, it might break the complete gap. The Hurst character of the time variation of seismicity is persistent with H= 0.82. The aftershocks of the 1999 Izmit earthquake can be analyzed by using the Hurst method, showing an exceptionally high persistent memory.     

Use of the Two Dimensional Gabor Filter to Interpret Magnetic Data Over the Marmara Sea, Turkey

Image processing techniques have been frequently used in processing of potential field data. The most important aim in processing potential field data is to figure out the edges of the geological bodies. The Gabor filter was used to determine the discontinuity boundaries of the source bodies causing the magnetic anomalies in this study. The synthetic total magnetic anomaly of three prism bodies with different depths and orientations was used to test the effect of the Gabor filter on the magnetic data. In addition, the Gabor filter was applied on the reduction to the pole aeromagnetic field data of the Marmara Sea and the results were compared with the fault distribution map of the area prepared by various authors.     

Ra in the Black Sea and Sea of Marmara

Water column distributions of²²⁶Ra were determined at stations in the Sea of Marmara and the Black Sea as part of the 1988 Joint U.S.—Turkish Black Sea Expedition. Black Sea surface water²²⁶Ra concentrations were a factor of three to four lower than measurements made 20 years earlier. The most likely cause is increased removal of²²⁶Ra and Ba [35] due to increased surface biological activity; a secondary effect is decreased fluvial discharge and related dimunition of inputs by desorption from fluvial suspended sediments. The amount of²²⁶Ra missing from the surface waters of the Black Sea over this period is accounted for in the high-porosity surficial “fluff” sediment layer.

Throughout the Black Sea, depth profiles of²²⁶Ra exhibited pronounced maxima of approximately 25 dpm/100 L at aboutσ_θ = 16.2–16.3, in the vicinity of a bacterial maximum, but slightly shallower than the total dissolved Mn and Fe maxima (σ_θ = 16.4–16.5) reported by Lewis and Landing [38]. While the²²⁶Ra maximum may, in part, be linked to the cycling of Mn and Fe oxyhydroxides near theO₂H₂S interface, its distribution appears to be more plausibly explained as a result of the microbial breakdown of particulate organic matter and the subsequent release and partial dissolution of associated barite in this region.

A simple steady-state two-☐ model has been used to obtain a semiquantitative understanding of the behavior of²²⁶Ra in the Black Sea. By incorporating reasonable estimates for the input and removal of²²⁶Ra in the Black Sea, an excellent agreement between predicted and observed (1988)²²⁶Ra concentrations was achieved. The model suggests that the dominant variables controlling the distribution of²²⁶Ra in the Black Sea are riverine input and cycling with Ba.     

Loss estimation in Istanbul based on deterministic earthquake scenarios of the Marmara Sea region (Turkey)

The rapid urban development in Istanbul has lead to an increase in the exposure levels of the urban vulnerability. Due to the steadily increasing population, with improper land-use planning, inappropriate construction techniques and inadequate infrastructure systems, associated with an existing high hazard level, Istanbul is one of the most risky cities in the Mediterranean region. Estimations of casualties and losses, expected for given earthquake scenarios, are necessary to develop sustainable rehabilitation programs and for improving preparedness. Deterministic hazard scenarios and time-dependent probabilistic hazard assessment were used as input to a GIS-based loss estimation model, to evaluate the earthquake risk for Istanbul.     

An Investigation into the Earthquake Migration Patterns in Marmara Region,Turkey

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—The seismic migration patterns can be associated with the existing geophysical setting, the tectonic movements and the geographical...     

Building damage from the Marmara, Turkey earthquake of August 17, 1999

The objective of this paper is to provide a brief overview of damage as observed immediately following the earthquake. Detailed studies of structural seismic performance, conducted in the time elapsed since August 1999, are not the subject of this paper, but rather the object of other papers presented in this Special Issue of the Journal. Damage to reinforced concrete, masonry, and steel structures, is described. The mode the failure presented include: foundation failures; soft stories; strong beams and weak columns; lack of column confinement and poor detailing practice; buckling and fractures of steel members; and non-structural damage. Some general lessons learned from this earthquake are also formulated.     

Insight into the Crustal Structure of the Eastern Marmara Region, NW Turkey

In order to investigate crustal structure beneath the eastern Marmara region, a seismic refraction survey was conducted across the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) zone in north west Turkey. Two reversed profiles across two strands of the NAF zone were recorded in the Armutlu Highland where a tectonically active region was formed by different continents. We used land explosions in boreholes and quarry blasts as seismic sources. A reliable crustal velocity and depth model is obtained from the inversion of first arrival travel times. The velocity-depth model will improve the positioning of the earthquake activities in this active portion of the NAF. A high velocity anomaly (5.6–5.8 km s⁻¹) in the central highland of Armutlu block and the low velocity (4.90 km s⁻¹) pattern north of Iznik Lake are the two dominant features. The crustal thickness is about 26 ± 2 km in the north and increases to about 32 ± 2 km beneath the central Armutlu block in the south. P-wave velocities are about 3.95 km s⁻¹ to 4.70 km s⁻¹ for the depth range between about 1 km and 5 km in the upper crust. The eastern Marmara region has different units of upper crust with velocities varying with depth to almost 8 km. The high upper crust velocities are associated with Armutlu metamorphic rocks, while the low velocity anomalies are due to unconsolidated sedimentary sequences. The western side of Armutlu block has complex tectonics and is well known for geothermal sources. If these sources are continuous throughout the portions of the crust, it may be associated with a granitic intrusion and deformation along the NAF zone. That is, the geothermal sources associated with the low velocity may be due to the occurrence of widespread shear heating, even shear melting. The presence of shear melting may indicate the presence of crustal fluid imposed by two blocks of the NAF system.     

Determination of optimum kernel bandwidth for northern Marmara region,Turkey

As a relatively recent development, spatial smoothing methods have been introduced to identify seismic patterns. Among the methods developed to model the spatial variation, methods based on utilization of 3-D Gaussian isotropic kernels have a wide reception. The most important question remaining to be answered in the application of these methods is the determination of the optimum kernel bandwidth. At the present, researchers’ efforts to clarify the subject have still not yet finalized, this study aims to provide insightful knowledge for future efforts. In this study, for the region bounded by 27°–33° longitudes and 39°–41° latitudes, where the western section of the famous Northern Anatolian fault lies, smoothing techniques are implemented to determine the optimum smoothing kernel bandwidth for point sources. The influence of the modeling of seismicity through the computation of the optimum smoothing kernel bandwidth is examined. In addition, the sensitivity of each smoothing technique to the seismic patterns, whether densely clustered or scarcely populated, is investigated. In the end, the smoothing method based on optimum neighbor number is identified as highly sensitive to the density of seismicity and seismic clusters, and better in modeling high seismicity compared to the model based on single optimum smoothing distance used for the entire region of interest.     

地震海啸在东海大陆架上传播过程的数值模拟研究

在东海潜在震源区冲绳海槽假定了五个震源点,根据Steven地震海啸地震参数经验值作为初始条件,分别考虑6.5、7.0、7.5、8.0、8.5、9.0级地震条件下的30个震例,采用数值模拟的方法,对海啸在东海传播过程进行情境分析,特别是对上海沿岸地区可能会遭受的海啸灾害做了较为精细的研究.结果发现:小于8.0级的震例对上海地区几乎不会造成影响;8.0级震例只有最北端震源点震例会对上海地区有明显影响;8.5级以及9.0级震级基本上均会对上海沿岸地区造成较大的影响.特别是冲绳海槽北段9.0级震例可能会对上海沿岸局部地区造成危害,最大波高可达3.9m.     

滇池盆地东缘白邑-横冲断裂南段的浅层地震勘探研究

本文用浅层地震反射波法对可能穿越昆明新城区东部第四系覆盖区的白邑-横冲断裂南段进行了探测,结果表明:采用浅层地震反射波法探测隐伏断层是有效的,在滇池盆地东缘,白邑-横冲断裂南段东支在隐伏区存在,断面接近直立,视倾角约80°,具有高倾角张性正断性质,基岩垂直错距为10—13m,断裂规模由北向南减小;同时,没有发现西支次级断层存在迹象。据土层测龄结果,东支断裂最新活动时代为第四纪中更新世晚期。     

Organochlorine residue and toxic metal (Pb, Cd and Cr) levels in the surface sediments of the Marmara Sea and the coast of Istanbul, Turkey

In this study, organochlorine and toxic metal (Pb, Cd and Cr) analyses have been done in the surface sediments. Sediment samples have been collected from 7 parts of the Marmara Sea and the coast of Istanbul during 2009. Total Pb, Cd and Cr contents vary between 32 μg g(-1) and 122 μg g(-1); 0.19 μg g(-1) and 1.16 μg g(-1); 62 μg g(-1) and 372 μg g(-1), respectively. EF values of Pb and Cr are higher than 1.5 in all the stations. EF value of Cd is considerably high at Station MY1 (Tuzla Port). Total organochlorine residue contents range between 4.33 ng g(-1) and 22.2 ng g(-1) in the surface sediments.     

Ecological risk assessment using trace elements from surface sediments of Izmit Bay (Northeastern Marmara Sea) Turkey

The aim of this study was to study ecological risk assessment of trace elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn) in Izmit Bay surface sediments in the <63 microm fraction. Sediment samples were collected from 8 sites along the north coastline of the bay. Samples were subjected to a total digestion technique and analyzed for major (organic carbon) and minor (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn) elements. Sediments heavily contaminated are evaluated by the Sediment Quality Guidelines (SQG) of US EPA. The degree of contamination (Cd) is estimated as very high at each site. Two sets of SQGs, effect range-low/effect range median values and TEL/probable effect level (PEL) values were used in our study. Sediments from the each site are judged toxic when two or more of the PEL values exceed EPA guidelines. Our results are in agreement with previously reported sediment toxicity test results.     

Ecological quality status of coastal benthic ecosystems in the Sea of Marmara

The macrofauna in the north Marmara Sea were identified and evaluated with univariate measures and biotic indices (BENTIX, AMBI). As expected, the diversity and species' variety decreased as the sediments became muddier and as the stress increased. The AMBI index failed to detect the spatial differentiation of the EcoQ between the sites whereas, the BENTIX index succeeded (in 70% of the cases) in producing an ecologically relevant classification reflecting the environmental pressures. Results suggested that risks of reduced species' richness and diversity from organic loading and other associated stressors in sediments should be relatively low at TOC concentrations < about 6 mg/g, high at concentrations>about 22 mg/g, and intermediate at concentrations in-between. It is suggested that these TOC critical points may be used as a general screening-level indicator for assessing the EcoQ in association with reduced biodiversity over coastal areas receiving organic wastes and other pollutants from human activities. It is further suggested that both assignment of species to ecological groups and classification scales for biotic indices (AMBI, BENTIX) for sites in the Mediterranean Sea should be readjusted so as to be closer related to environmental variables.     

Spatial and temporal changes in microbial diversity of the Marmara Sea sediments

Spatial (10 different locations) and temporal (2 years) changes in characteristics of the Marmara Sea Sediments were monitored to determine interactions between the chemical and microbial diversity. The sediments were rich in terms of hydrocarbon, nitrate, Ni and microbial cell content. Denitrifying, sulfate reducing, fermentative and methanogenic organisms were co-abundant in 15 cm below the sea floor. The local variations in the sediments’ characteristics were more distinctive than the temporal ones. The sulfate and nitrate contents were the main drivers of the changes in the microbial community compositions. N and P were limited for microbial growth in the sediments, and their levels determined the total cell abundance and activity. Seasonal shifts in temperatures of the shallow sediments were also reflected in the active cell abundances. It was concluded that the Marmara Sea is a promising ecosystem for the further investigation of the ecologically important microbial processes.     

The effect of Marmara (Izmit) Earthquake on the chemical oceanography of Izmit Bay,Turkey

After the Marmara (Izmit) Earthquake (magnitude 7.4) on 17 August 1999, chemical oceanographical characteristics of Izmit Bay were investigated in order to examine the possible effects of the refinery fire and uncontrolled entrance of domestic wastes to the surface waters. The dissolved oxygen (DO) content of the water column in August 1999 was the lowest value of all the measurement periods. It was found to be lower than the detection limit of the method (0.03 mgl(-1)) in the lower layer of eastern and central basins of the Bay, whereas the dissolved hydrogen sulfide (DHS) values were high, varying between 0.14 and 1.28 mgl(-1). The deficiency of DO and in turn formation of DHS were caused by the spreading petroleum from the refinery fire onto the sea surface and waste loads from the damaged municipal waste effluent system. The increasing organic/inorganic loads into the Bay stimulated the phytoplankton blooms which cause locally saturated DO concentrations in the eastern basin during autumn 1999. DO concentrations increased in lower layer waters during winter, whilst DHS formation disappeared when water originating from the Marmara Sea replenish the water column of Izmit Bay. However, DHS formation established again in August 2000.