武威地电台映震能力讨论

本文研究了武威地电台周围１５０ｋｍ范围内发生的景泰６．２、门源６．４、天祝西４．７、旦马５．６、雅布赖４．７级地震和共和７．０级地震（△＝２７０ｋｍ）该台地电阻率（ρｓ）变化，结果显示：对于前４次地震，该台ＥＷ道测值出现１０＾－１－１０＾－２量级的ρｓ短临异常，共和和雅布赖地震前后观测到１０＾－１量级的ρｓ短期下降异常。作者研究认为，ρｓ异常可以是该台ＥＷ道探测范围内介质不完整，孕震后期震源力学过     

试论香泉水氡的映震能力

对香泉水氨１９７６年以来资料的处理分析，发现在华东地区发生Ｍｓ≥５．０地震前该水氡有较清晰的前兆异常显示，本文通过震例剖析，对该测点水氡的映震能力进行初步探讨。     

天津前兆台网映震能力评价

收集了自１９８９年至１９９３年１０月天津及其附近地区发生的ＭＬ≥４．０地震和大同地区发生的中强地震共２１次，经统计计算认为：天津台网对唐山地区发生的地震反映能力较强，北京地区次之，对大同地区发生的中强地震的一定的反映能力，其综合映震能力为６１．９％，可预报能力为２３．８％，异常对应能力不超过５５．７％，观测项目综合灵敏度为２４％，对天津及其附近地区发生的中等地震仅可能有３．１７％观测项目产生异常。     

塘沽18井多种地下流体前兆异常的综合识别与分析

分别使用模糊识别法、统计识别法及速率识别法对塘沽１８号井天然气逸出量、溢油量和水位三项肖净观测数据进行综合分析处理，识别出震中距５００Ｋｍ范围内Ｍｓ≥４．５级地震前的中短期前兆异常，并对异常特征进行了综合分析，得出了相应的经验关系式。据对已发生的地震样本进行统计检验的结果，中期或短期映震率可达８０％以上。结果表明，利用单井多项前兆对比观测可提高地震综合预报的能力，并为前兆机理及地震孕育过程的研究提     

1994年震情述评

１９９４年震情述评丁鉴海，刘杰（中国北京１０００３６国家地震局分析预报中心）１１９９４年我国地震活动实况１９９４年我国共发生人Ｍｓ≥５．０级地震４８次（大陆及近海地区２９次，台湾地区１９次），其中Ｍｓ≥６．０级地震９次（大陆及近海地区４次，台湾地区５...     

合欢树生物电位的非震异常特征

介绍了在山西太钢（集团）有限公司地震台进行合欢树地震观测的震例,总结了合欢树生物电位地震前兆异常的形态及观测成果。认为合欢树的映震性能较好,一般在震前几小时到几天合欢树生物电位会出现异常。在１００ｋｍ以内对３．０级以上地震的映震率达８０％,在５００ｋｍ以内对４．５级以上地震的映震率达７７ ％,在１０００ｋｍ以内对５．５级以上地震映震率为６６％。     

更新论在估计西南地区未来地震活动中的应用

更新过程在许多领域已有应用。本文检验确认四川省、云南省Ｍ＿ｓ≥５．５，６．０，６．５；川滇Ｍ＿ｓ≥６．０、６．５，７．０；西藏Ｍ＿ｓ≥６．０，６．５，６级地震（主震）间隔时间分别都可认为服从指数分布；同时其中大多又可认为服从对数正态分布，分别对未来１年、３年、５年给出地震发生的概率，并对以上时段内可能发震的次数作出估计，对西南地区未来几年内的地震活动强度给出简明的统计描述，应注意：年内四川省应有Ｍ＿ｓ≥５．５级地震发生，且震级可能大于或等于６．０级。     

白狐沟井水位与地震

白狐沟井位于包头市北部，从１９７９年对该井水位曾续观测。１９７９年８月２５日包头西五原县发生Ｍｓ６．０级地震，１９８１年９月３１日包头东丰镇发生Ｍｓ５．８级地震。在观测中，震前该井水位均发生了明显异常，为地震预报提供了较可靠的依据。     

常熟定点形变对江苏及南黄海中强震映震能力及预报效能分析

采用地形变前兆特征研究中的多种方法,利用常熟台定点形变观测资料,对自１９８５年以来发生在江苏省及南海海域的中强地震进行了研究及观测手段的映震能力检验,得出：（１）常熟地倾斜对其周围２００ｋｍ范围内Ｍｓ≥４．５地震有较好的中、短期前兆异常显示：（２）归纳总结各分析方法判别获得的异常表明,常熟地单台信度较高,具有较强的遇震能力。     

怀来台震前超低频电场与地震关系研究

用河北省怀来电磁辐射观测台连续１１年观测资料,分析了张北－尚义６．２级地震前超低频电场资料的变化,研究了３００ｋｍ范围内Ｍｓ５．０以上地震和２００ｋｍ范围内Ｍｓ４．０以上地震前记录的超低频电场的变化。结果表明,异常信息量、异常起始时间及持续时间与震中距、震级有关,异常信息在地震发生前达最大值。     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Foreword

Destructive earthquakes have caused great damage in China and the United States and collapsing buildings havecaused many deaths and injuries. The field of earthquake engineering studies earthquake hazards, the occurrence ofearthquakes of various magnitudes, the nature of the ground shaking during an earthquake, the vibration of structuresduring earthquakes, the strengthening of existing structures and the design of new structures to be earthquake resistant,and finally, how to cope with earthquake damage and restore a city to normal functioning. Such efforts are in progressin both countries, but unfortunately, the language barrier interferes with the free flow of information between China andthe Untied States. It would be mutually beneficial if some means could be developed to promote the exchangeof information across the Pacific Ocean. This new journal has been established for this purpose and its success willbe an important step in promoting earthquake engineering in China and the United States.     

WORLD ASSOCIATION FOR SEDIMENTATION AND EROSION RESEARCH(WASER)

正President:Giampaolo Di Silvio,Italy Vice Presidents:Ulrich C.E.Zanke,Germany Zhao-yin Wang,China The World Association for Sedimentation and Erosion Research(WASER),inaugurated on Oct.19,2004,is an independent non-governmental,non-profit organization.The mission of WASER is to promote international co-operation on the study     

Enhancing remote sensing research on global change to improve our understanding on Earth system processes

正Global Change includes climate change and other environmental changes caused by the joint interaction among various layers of Earth. From the positive side, global change provides new opportunities to human and other living forms on Earth. In the meantime, it creates tremendous challenges and negative impact. At present, the negative impacts have reached all primary processes of the global ecosystem and every aspect of human society, especially causing degradation of the ecosystem. For instance, intensive deforestation causes decline of biodiversity; global warming causes sea level rise and increases     

SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences SUBJECT INDEX TO VOLUME 57(2014)

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