Seasonal and interannual variations in the velocity field of the South China Sea

A three-dimensional numerical model is used to simulate sea level and velocity variations in the South China Sea for 1992–1995. The model is driven by daily wind and daily sea surface temperature fields derived from the NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. The four-year model outputs are analyzed using time-domain Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF). Spatial and temporal variations of the first two modes from the simulation compare favorably with those derived from satellite altimetry. Mode 1, which is associated with a southern gyre, shows symmetric seasonal reversal. Mode 2, which contributes to a northern gyre, is responsible for the asymmetric seasonal and interannual variations. In winter, the southern and northern cyclonic gyres combine into a strong basin-wide cyclonic gyre. In summer, a cyclonic northern gyre and an anticyclonic southern gyre form a dipole with a jet leaving the coast of Vietnam. Interannual variations are particularly noticeable during El Niño. The winter gyre is generally weakened and confined to the southern basin, and the summer dipole structure does not form. Vertical motions weaken accordingly with the basin-wide circulation. Variations of the wind stress curl in the first two EOF modes coincide with those of the model-derived sea level and horizontal velocities. The mode 1 wind stress curl, significant in the southern basin, coincides with the reversal of the southern gyre. The mode 2 curl, large in the central basin, is responsible for the asymmetry in the winter and summer gyres. Lack of the mode 2 contribution during El Niño events weakens the circulation. The agreement indicates that changes in the wind stress curl contribute to the seasonal and interannual variations in the South China Sea.     

Sea-level variation/change and thermal contribution in the Bering Sea

The long-term sea-level trend in the Bering Sea is obtained by the analysis of TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data, including the data of two tide gauges. The averaged sea-level in the Bering Sea rises at a rate of 2.47 mm/a from 1992 to 2002. The mean sea-level is falling in the most part of the Bering Sea, especially in its central basin, and it is rising in the northeastern part of the Bering Sea. During the 1998/99 change, the sea-level anomaly differences exhibit a significant sea-level anomaly fall in the deep basin of the Bering Sea,which is roughly in the same position where a prominent SST fall exists. The maximal fall of sea-level is about 10 cm in the southwestern part of the Bering Sea, and the maximal fall of about 2℃ in the SST also appeared in the same region as the sea level did.The steric sea-level change due to temperature variations is discussed. The results are compared with the TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter data at the different spatial scales. It is indicated that the seasonal amplitude of the steric height is about 35% of the observed TOPEX/Poseidon amplitude, which is much smaller than the 83% in the mid-latitudes area. The systematic difference between the TOPEX/Poseidon data with the range of about 7.5 cm and the thermal contribution with the range of about 2.5 cm is about 5 cm. This indicates that the thermal effect on the sea level is not as important as the case in the mid-latitudes area. In the Bering Sea, the phase of the steric height leads the observed sea level by about three months.     

热带太平洋海平面低频变化

本文选取ECMWF ORAS4再分析数据对1959-2015年热带太平洋海平面的低频变化进行了分析。热带太平洋海平面年际变化第一模态反映了ENSO爆发阶段的海平面变化,热带东、西太平洋变化反相,其时间序列与Niño3.4指数高度相关。海平面第二模态则体现了El Niño爆发前后热带太平洋暖水的输运过程。El Niño爆发前热带西太平洋暖水聚集的位置,以及爆发后暖水向赤道外输运的位置在两类El Niño事件中均有所不同。此外,ENSO的周期在近半个世纪发生了显著的年代际变化,这一变化与热带太平洋的年代际变化有关。热带太平洋的年代际变化对海平面趋势变化也有着显著的影响。卫星高度计观测到的近20年海平面的快速上升（下降）正是由20世纪90年代后热带太平洋频繁的位相转换引起的。     

Internnual variations of water temperature and salinity along the 137°E meridian

Analyses were performed on hydrographic data gathered along the 137°E meridian by the R/V Ryofu Maru of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). Distributions were obtained of the mean and standard deviation of water temperature and salinity along the section. Relationships between interannual variations of these variables and wind forcing were examined. A correlation analysis revealed that temperature change, which occurred in the equatorial region of the western North Pacific accompanied by El Nino and La Nina events, reached about 20°N with the inclination of isotherms across the north equatorial current fluctuating around 20°N. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the winter water temperatures in the section was performed to extract variations following El Nino and La Nina events as the first mode and those corresponding to decadal changes of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific as the second mode. Interannual variations in the area of the North Pacific tropical saline water (NPTSW) and the North Pacific intermediate water (NPIW) along the section correspond well to interannual variations of the wind-stress curl minimum (negative value) in the area southeast of Japan. A remaining problem is to quantitatively evaluate the lag times of the variations to the wind-stress curl variation. In the equatorial region of the section, the northward extension of saline water is weak, and negative water temperature anomalies have often occurred in connection with El Nino events since the latter half of the 1970s. These changes may be part of the decadal variation of the North Pacific.     

Spatiotemporal characteristics of interannual temperature variations in the Tsushima Strait

Spatiotemporal characteristics of interannual temperature variations in the Tsushima Strait are investigated on the basis of historical hydrographic data applying the same procedures as Senjyu et al. (2006). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis revealed that the most energetic mode of variation (the EOF first mode), which accounts for about 31.5% of the total variance, is the in-phase temperature change for the entire strait. The wintertime temperature variation described by the first mode is associated with the wintertime heat flux in the northern East China Sea, while they are poorly correlated in other seasons. The large standard deviation in the time coefficient of the first mode in August suggests a relationship with the horizontal heat advection in summer in the northern East China Sea. On the other hand, the EOF second mode, which explains about 12.6% of the total variance, is associated with the stratification and baroclinicity in the strait. The time coefficient of the EOF second mode negatively correlates with the baroclinic volume transport through the strait in summer. Comparison of temporal variations among the leading EOF modes for temperature and salinity shows no significant correlations. This indicates that the principal modes of variation in temperature and salinity vary independently within an interannual timescale.     

Composite Analysis of North Pacific Subtropical Mode Water Properties with Respect to the Strength of the Wintertime East Asian Monsoon

The interannual variation of the thermal structure of North Pacific subtropical mode water (NPSTMW) is investigated by means of composite analysis with respect to the wintertime Monsoon Index (MOI) which can represent the strength of the wintertime East Asian monsoon. The wind stress field over the NPSTMW formation area has significant variation over the interannual (2–4 year) and the decadal (10–20 year) bands. Changes in interannual variation are well correlated with the intensity of the wintertime East Asian monsoon. By means of composite analysis, it is found that significant differences occur in the thermal structure of the NPSTMW between stronger and weaker monsoon years. That is, colder and thicker NPSTMW is formed in years with stronger monsoons. Analysis of the heat flux through the sea surface and horizontal heat divergence in the Ekman layer shows that colder and thicker NPSTMW in stronger monsoon years can be attributed to a larger amount of heat release through the sea surface in the formation area. A larger horizontal divergence of the heat transport in the upper Ekman layer is considerably responsible for this increased heat loss.     

Surface circulation and vertical structure of current off the Keum River estuary,Korea in later spring 2008

To examine the surface circulation and vertical structure of currents in the region of the Keum River (KR) plume, we analyzed the subinertial surface currents obtained by high frequency radar and the vertical profiles of currents measured at a station (M1) located 10 km distance from the estuary mouth for one month in late spring 2008. Monthly-mean surface circulation is composed of the westward flow from the estuary mouth and the northward flow in the offshore. These surface mean currents are a gradient (geostrophic) current around the monthly-mean plume bulge. Dominant variabilities of the surface currents, winds, and KR-outflow are decomposed by the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF). The first current EOF mode, explaining 39% of total variation, is primarily related to the first wind EOF mode varying along the coast and the second current mode, explaining 33% of total variation, is mainly related to the first KR-outflow EOF mode varying along the mean KR-outflow direction. Meanwhile, vertical profile of the monthly-mean current at M1 shows a two-layer structure of the current flowing offshore (onshore) in the upper (lower) layer because the water column is divided by a pycnocline at 7-9 m depths below the plume water. This two layer structure is a background persisting current structure, at least in spring, maintained by the geostrophic balance induced by the sea level slope and density gradient along the line normal to the westward mean surface current direction due to monthly-mean plume bulge off the KR estuary. EOF analysis of vertical current profiles reveals that the first mode, explaining 43% of total variation, represents the two-layer structure of the current variability. The upper-layer current varies along a line normal to the mainland coastline and the low-layer one varies approximately along a line parallel to the coastline, with direction difference of about 115° between the upper-and low-layer. From the correlation analysis it is found that 60% of the first mode variation is influenced by the first mode of KR-outflow and 36% by the first mode of wind. Any forcing modes of KR-outflow and wind influencing the other current vertical modes could not be found in the present study.     

黄东海大气边界层高度季节变化特征及其成因

利用CFSR再分析资料,采用EOF的分析方法统计分析了黄东海边界层高度的季节变化特征,探讨了2个模态的分布型以及与之相联系的下垫面热通量和垂直环流,统计了ICOADS资料中近30a逐月低云发生频率和海雾发生频率,揭示了其与边界层高度分布特征的一致性。结果表明:盛行风的平流作用与下垫面特征相结合造成的低空稳定性的变化是黄东海边界层高度时间上夏季低、冬季高,空间上呈现东高西低、南高北低的重要因素。EOF分析中第一模态表现为整个黄东海区域具有一致性,主要是大尺度环流的影响;第二模态为春秋相反的2个分布型,与海洋锋、冷舌以及暖水团的季节变化有着密切关系。黄东海大气边界层高度的最大值出现时间以及其大小在空间上较为一致,而最小值以黄东海海洋锋为界,向北逐渐减小,以南差异性不大,出现时间上有较大的差异。,这主要由黄东海冷舌、暖水团以及海洋锋的季节变化所引起对边界层经向分布影响较大所引起的。春夏季节,南部(西部)低云发生频率高于北部(东部),海雾发生频率低于北部(东部);海雾高频区对应较低边界层高度,而低云高频区对应相对较高边界层高度。     

东、黄海海表面温度季节内变化特征的EOF分析

基于1998—2004年的TRMM/TMI卫星遥感海面温度(SST)数据,在初步分析东、黄海SST的季节分布特征的基础上,采用EOF方法分析了SST的季节内变化特征,进而对SST季节内变化的可能机制进行了探讨。EOF分析获得的前4个模态的累积方差贡献率为57.07%,其结果基本反映了东、黄海SST变化的主要物理过程。其中,EOF的第一模态的方差贡献率占30.17%,其空间模态揭示了以东海北部为中心的、整个海域SST变化趋于一致的特征,这一模态的显著变化周期为6.3周;第二模态的方差贡献率占14.36%,其空间模态呈现东南海域与西北海域SST的反相变化趋势,显著变化周期为8.7周和10.6周;第三模态的方差贡献率占7.02%,其空间SST变率最大的区域位于黄海海域,显著变化周期为6.8,8.7,10.2周等;第四模态的方差贡献率占5.52%,其空间SST变率最大的区域位于东、黄海近海,显著变化周期为6.8周。东、黄海SST季节内变化与此海区大气中的季节内振荡是紧密相关的。     

东亚冬季气温的年际变化特征及其与海温和海冰异常的关系

通过谐波分析的方法,对东亚31个冬季(1980—2010年)的气温提取年际变化分量(周期小于8a部分)进行EOF分析。结果发现:在年际变化的时间尺度上,东亚冬季气温表现为高纬模态和低纬模态2个主要模态,它们一起可以解释总方差73%的变化。进一步分析表明,在年际变化尺度上,与气温变化的高纬模态相联系的大气环流表现为显著的北极涛动(AO)负位相分布,海平面气压场上西伯利亚高压和阿留申低压北移,对流层中层东亚大槽西移,高层西风急流向西北方向移动;副热带北太平洋和阿拉斯加湾的海表面温度(SST)变化呈偶极子振荡分布,这种准两年的周期振荡对这一模态的出现有一定的预示意义。而与气温变化的低纬模态相联系的大气环流表现为类AO正位相分布,与之相关的西伯利亚高压和阿留申低压南移,对流层中层东亚大槽东移,高层的西风急流则是向东南方向移动;赤道东太平洋的SST异常可能对这一模态的形成有一定的作用,而东亚近海的SST则更多是被动地改变。此外,海冰异常变化与东亚冬季气温变化的联系主要体现在:在前夏和前秋,东西伯利亚海-波弗特海海冰异常减少(增加)对应着随后东亚冬季气温变化的高纬模态(低纬模态),而冬季东亚气温变化的高纬模态(低纬模态)又与后期春季北极东半球的海冰异常增加(减少)具有较好的相关性,此外白令海和鄂霍次克海的海冰异常变化是伴随东亚冬季气温变化产生的。     

Interannual salinity variations in the Tsushima Strait and its relation to the Changjiang discharge

Interannual salinity variations in the Tsushima Strait are investigated on the basis of historical hydrographic data. The EOF analysis revealed that the most dominant mode is the in-phase salinity variation between the eastern and western channels. The time coefficients of the EOF first mode in summer show a negative correlation with the Changjiang discharge, which indicates that salinity in the Tsushima Strait tends to decrease over summer, related to a large discharge of the Changjiang. The eigenvectors of the first mode are larger in the eastern channel than those in the western channel, though the low salinity water mainly flows through the western channel. This is because the low salinity water spreads into the eastern channel as well as the western channel over summers with a large discharge of the Changjiang. The out-of-phase salinity variation between the channels is extracted as the EOF second mode; this is the predominant variation in the western channel. The time coefficients of the second mode in summer show no significant correlations to the volume transports through the western channel and the transport differences between channels. A relationship between the EOF second mode and variations in the wind stress over the East China Sea is suggested.     

ENSO to multi-decadal time scale changes in East Australian Current transports and Fort Denison sea level: Oceanic Rossby waves as the connecting mechanism

The connection between East Australian Current (EAC) transport variability and Australia’s east coast sea level has received little treatment in the literature. This is due in part to the complex interacting physical processes operating in the coastal zone combined with the sparsity of observations available to improve our understanding of these possible connections. This study demonstrates a statistically significant (at the >90% level) relationship between interannual to decadal time scale variations in observed estimates of the EAC transport changes and east coast sea level measured at the high-quality, long record Fort Denison tide-gauge in Sydney Harbour, Australia (33°51′18″S, 151°13′32″E). We further demonstrate, using a linear reduced-gravity ocean model, that ENSO to decadal time-scale variations and the ocean-adjusted multi-decadal trend (approx. 1 cm/decade) in observed sea level at Fort Denison are strongly connected to modulations of EAC transports by incoming westward propagating oceanic Rossby waves. We show that EAC transport and Fort Denison sea level vary in a manner expected from both Tasman Sea generated Rossby waves, which account for the interannual and multi-annual variability, and remotely forced (from east of New Zealand) Rossby wave connections through the mid-latitudes, accounting for the ocean-adjusted multi-decadal trend observed at the New South Wales coast - with the regional-Tasman Sea forcing explaining the greatest overall proportion of EAC transport and sea-level variances.     

A dipole mode at thermocline layer in the tropical Indian Ocean

Temperature data at different layers of the past 45 years were studied and we found adiploe mode in the thermocline layer (DMT): anomalously cold sea temperature off the coast of Sumatra and warm sea temperature in the western Indian Ocean. First, we analyzed the temperature and the temperature anomaly (TA) along the equatorial Indian Ocean in different layers. This shows that stronger cold and warm TA signals appeared at subsurface than at the surface in the tropical Indian O-cean. This result shows that there may be a strong dipole mode pattern in the subsurface tropical Indian Ocean. Secondly we used Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) to analyze the TA at thermocline layer. The first EOF pattern was a dipole mode pattern. Finally we analyzed the correlations between DMT and surface tropical dipole mode (SDM), DMT and Nino 3 SSTA, etc. and these correlations are strong.     

A grey model with periodic term for sea-level analysis and its application to the Guangxi coast

A~as~Sof~~LIngeneral,sealevelisresolvedintOatrendtermplusaPeriedictermintheanalysisofsealevelvdriations(haetal.1996;ZuoandChen,1996;QinandLi,1997;Zhengetal.,1993;RenandZhang,1993),namely,thetimeequencesofmonthlyorannualmeansealevely(o)(t)canbeexpr~asy(o)(t)=T(o)(t) p(o)(t) X(o)(t) .(o)(t),(l)whereT(o)(t)isadefinitetrendterm;p(o)(t)isadefiniteperiedicterm;X(o)(t)isatimeseriesofrandomterm;a(o)(t)iswhitenoise.Thefunctionstructuresofthetrendtermaregenerallyunknown,whiledeterminingthetrendter…     

中国沿岸现代相对海平面上升加剧

本文用线性回归方法,分两个时段分析了中国沿岸２５个验潮站相对海平面的年变化速度,计算了相应时段的平均海面,结果表明,中国沿岸现代相对海平面上升加剧。另外,本文还对海平面变化原因进行了讨论。     

印尼贯穿流出流海域海表高度时空变化

采用经验正交分解(Empirical Orthogonal Function,EOF)分析方法对印尼贯穿流出流海域卫星测高海面高度异常资料进行了分析,分析结果显示研究海域海面高度异常存在多时间尺度变化特征。1993—2013年期间,研究海域海面高度异常场存在明显的升高趋势,其升高速率为0.6 cm/a;研究海域海面高度异常存在显著的年际变化,其与Niño3.4指数的相关系数超前滞后相关最大可达0.65,且厄尔尼诺年偏高,拉尼娜年偏低;海面高度异常年周期变化显著海域主要受印尼贯穿流、印度洋南赤道流和Eastern Gyral Current(EGC)季节变化的影响,半年周期变化则对应于爪哇沿岸流与南赤道流共同作用下形成的涡旋的半年周期变化;另外,研究海域海面高度异常还存在显著的季节内变化特征。     

2000-2008年期间南海海面温度的年际与空间变异

通过对2000-2008年更高空间分辨率的南海海面温度(SST)的卫星遥感数据进行经验正交函数(EOF)分析,着重研究21世纪以来整个南海海域SST年际变化的时空变异,并探讨了其与南海海面风场和海面高度的关系,以及期间南海发生的两次负异常事件的特点和成因.SST年际变化的第一模态表现为全海盆同相变化,年际振荡主要发生在...     

基于EOF法的长江口高潮位时空变化特征研究——长时间序列的高潮位EOF分析

根据长江口6个主要潮位站1993-2008年潮位资料,通过经验正交函数分析法(EOF法)分析了长时间序列和三峡工程前后月平均高潮位变化规律以及2000年的日高潮位变化规律,并探究其影响因素。结果表明:EOF分析前三个主成分贡献率为98.19%,可以反映潮位变化的主要过程。EOF1的影响因子是径流量,在空间上均为正值,呈上游至下游递减趋势,时间系数呈季节性变化;EOF2的影响因子是月平均海平面变化,在空间上有明显的分布差异,时间系数总体有上升趋势。三峡工程前后影响因子的作用有一定变化,径流量的影响增强,海平面减小。徐六泾以上河段的潮位站受径流丰枯影响,徐六泾以下高潮位受平均海平面控制更大。     

太平洋海平面变化特征及影响因素分析

采用经验模态分解法对太平洋沿岸验潮站的月平均海平面资料进行处理,结合T/P高度计资料、Church(2004)重构SSH资料、Ishii(2005)月均海温资料,研究太平洋海平面年际、年代际变化以及资料长度内海平面变化趋势。太平洋沿岸海平面总体呈上升趋势,平均上升速率为1.4 mm/a,趋势项分布有明显的区域性和纬度特征。ENSO对太平洋地区海平面年际变化有显著影响,海平面年际变化与Nino3指数在西(东)太平洋为负(正)相关,海平面年际变化与Nino3指数的相关性在热带太平洋最大,并随着纬度升高相关性减弱,且不同地区年际变化有滞后ENSO时间不等的最大相关。海平面年际变化与PDO指数在西(东)太平洋为负(正)相关,海平面与PDO的相关性分布有区域性和随时间演变特征。年代际变化对目前使用卫星高度计资料分析海平面长期趋势项的预测有直接影响,可能完全掩盖海平面长期变化趋势。     

海河口地区全新世海侵层的相变与海面波动的对应关系

B_2孔揭示海河口地区全新世海侵层厚达19.2m,自下往上依次出现潮间滩、近岸浅海、前三角洲、三角洲湾、河口砂坝及河口边滩六个亚相,下部两个亚相呈海进层序,上部四个亚相呈海退层序。除河口边滩亚相底界外,其他所有亚相间的界面均为不连续面,显示海侵层为不连续沉积。研究表明该不连续沉积与海面波动有关.在全新世海侵高峰后,海面一直处于幅度不大(约1m 左右)的振荡运动状态,一次振荡波就在海岸线上留下一道贝壳堤,近5000余年来发生了5次振荡波,在海退平原中就有5道贝克堤与之对应。B_2孔海退层序中曲不连续面与贝壳堤基底侵蚀面相对应,也与振荡波的上升坡段相对应。海退层序所表现出来的海岸向海推进现象不是海面大幅度下降的反映,而主要是河口区沉积物迅速加积的结果。