Spectral properties and composition of potentially hazardous Asteroid (99942) Apophis

The known close approach of Asteroid (99942) Apophis in April 2029 provides the opportunity for the case study of a potentially hazardous asteroid in advance of its encounter. The visible to near-infrared (0.55 to 2.45 μm) reflectance spectrum of Apophis is compared and modeled with respect to the spectral and mineralogical characteristics of likely meteorite analogs. Apophis is found to be an Sq-class asteroid that most closely resembles LL ordinary chondrite meteorites in terms of spectral characteristics and interpreted olivine and pyroxene abundances, although we cannot rule out some degree of partial melting. A meteorite analog allows some estimates and conjectures of Apophis' possible range of physical properties such as the grain density and micro-porosity of its constituent material. Composition and size similarities of Apophis with (25143) Itokawa suggest a total porosity of 40% as a “current best guess” for Apophis. Applying these parameters to Apophis yields a mass estimate of 2×¹⁰¹⁰ kg with a corresponding energy estimate of 375 Mt for its potential hazard. Substantial unknowns, most notably the total porosity, allow uncertainties in these mass and energy estimates to be as large as factors of two or three.     

Albedo and size determination of potentially hazardous asteroids: (99942) Apophis

The near-Earth object (99942) Apophis will make an extremely close approach to the Earth in 2029, and currently has approximately a one-in-45,000 chance of impacting our planet in 2036 (JPL Sentry, November 2006). Computation of the orbital evolution of this object is limited by insufficient knowledge of physical properties required to determine the role played by non-gravitational effects. Using polarimetric observations, we have obtained the first reliable determination of the albedo of Apophis, obtaining 0.33±0.08. We also derive an updated estimate of the asteroid's absolute magnitude: H=19.7±0.4. Using this albedo and H, we find that Apophis has a diameter of 270±60 m, slightly smaller than preliminary estimates based upon an assumed albedo. Our observations demonstrate the feasibility of polarimetric observations aimed at obtaining albedos and sizes of small, potentially hazardous asteroids.     

Zero secular torque on asteroids from impinging solar photons in the YORP effect: A simple proof

YORP torques, where “YORP” stands for “Yarokovsky-O’Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack,” arise mainly from sunlight reflected off a Solar System object and the infrared radiation emitted by it. We show here, through the most elementary demonstration that we can devise, that secular torques from impinging solar photons are generally negligible and thus cause little secular evolution of an asteroid’s obliquity or spin rate.     

Linear stability of collinear equilibrium points around an asteroid as a two-connected-mass: Application to fast rotating Asteroid 2000EB14

This note discusses the stability of collinear equilibrium points around a rotating system composed of two masses rigidly connected by a massless rod in the case, where the centripetal force outweighs the gravitational force. It is found that a stable region appears at L₁ when the ratio of gravitational to centripetal acceleration is less than 0.125, and that there is always no stable area at L₂ and L₃; the result is applied to the fast rotating Asteroid 2000EB₁₄.     

Inner Solar System dynamical analogs of plutinos

By studying orbits of asteroids potentially in 3:2 exterior mean motion resonance with Earth, Venus, and Mars, we have found plutino analogs. We identify at least 27 objects in the inner Solar System dynamically protected from encounter through this resonance. These are four objects associated with Venus, six with Earth, and seventeen with Mars. Bodies in the 3:2 exterior resonance (including those in the plutino resonance associated with Neptune) orbit the Sun twice for every three orbits of the associated planet, in such a way that with sufficiently low libration amplitude close approaches to the planet are impossible. As many as 15% of Kuiper Belt objects share the 3:2 resonance, but are poorly observed. One of several resonance sweeping mechanisms during planetary migration is likely needed to explain the origin and properties of 3:2 resonant Kuiper Belt objects. Such a mechanism likely did not operate in the inner Solar System. We suggest that scattering by the next planet out allows entry to, and exit from, 3:2 resonance for objects associated with Venus or Earth. 3:2 resonators of Mars, on the other hand, do not cross the paths of other planets, and have a long lifetime. There may exist some objects trapped in the 3:2 Mars resonance which are primordial, with our tests on the most promising objects known to date indicating lifetimes of at least tens of millions of years. Identifying 3:2 resonant systems in the inner Solar System permits this resonance to be studied on shorter timescales and with better determined orbits than has been possible to date, and introduces new mechanisms for entry into the resonant configuration.     

Detailed prediction for the BYORP effect on binary near-Earth Asteroid (66391) 1999 KW4 and implications for the binary population

A previous theory by the authors for detailed modeling of the binary YORP effect is reviewed and expanded to accommodate doubly-synchronous binary systems, as well as a method for non-dimensionalizing the coefficients for application to binary systems where a shape model to compute its own coefficients is not available. The theory is also expanded to account for the effects of primary J₂ and the Sun’s 3rd body perturbation on the secular orbit evolution. The newly expanded theory is applied to the binary near-Earth Asteroid 1999 KW4, for which a detailed shape model is available. The result of simulation of the secular evolutionary equations shows that the KW4 orbit will be double in size in approximately 22,000 years, and will reach the Hill radius in approximately 54,000 years. The simulation also shows that the eccentricity will alternate growing and shrinking in magnitude, depending on the location of the solar node in the body-fixed frame. Therefore the eccentricity is not fixed to evolve in the opposite sign as the semi-major axis unless the circulation of the node (with a period of 500 years) is averaged out as well. The current orbit expansion rate for KW4 of 7 cm per year is shown to be detectable with observations of the mean anomaly which grows quadratically in time with an expanding orbit. Finally, the KW4 results are scaled for application to a number of other binary systems for which detailed shape models are not available. This application shows that the orbits considered can expand to their Hill radius in the range of 10⁴-10⁶ years. This implies rapid formation of binary systems is necessary to support the large percentage of binaries observed in the NEA population.     

Simulation and analysis of the dynamics of binary near-Earth Asteroid (66391) 1999 KW4

Near-Earth Asteroid (66391) 1999 KW4 was the subject of the recently published first extensive radar imaging, shape and mutual orbit modeling, and physical and dynamical characterization of a binary asteroid. In this paper we present in detail our numerical simulation of KW4 behind that work. Our propagations of the system with some variation in estimated parameters cover the set of KW4's possible current dynamical states consistent with the body models and other information obtained directly from the observations. We also apply our implementation of this simulation capability to address some of the dynamical mechanisms by which KW4 may be moved into the more energetically excited of those possible current states, particularly solar gravity interaction. Through comparison of the results with certain features of the observation data, we conclude that the actual KW4 system is not in the most energetically relaxed configuration but must be moderately excited. The system occupies a generalized Cassini state 2 which is different from that considered in most previously published treatments of Cassini states in that it involves co-precession of the primary's spin frame and the mutual orbit rather than co-precession of a satellite's spin frame and that satellite's orbit about the primary. We present a simple analytical theory describing the system's dynamics, which should be applicable to any other binary systems, of which KW4 is representative, in which a massive, roughly oblate primary is spinning rapidly relative to the rate of its mutual orbit with an on-average synchronous, elongated secondary. We examine separately both the effect of the larger binary component's oblateness, and the effect of the smaller component's roughly triaxial ellipsoid shape. The simple analytical formulae obtained agree with full-detail numerical simulation results, and can be used for remote estimation of binary mass properties from observed system motion.     

Reconstructing the orbital history of the Veritas family

The family of (490) Veritas is a young, dynamically heterogeneous asteroid family, located in the outer main belt. As such, it represents a valuable example for studying the effects of chaotic diffusion on the shape of asteroid families. The Veritas family can be decomposed into several groups, in terms of the principal mechanisms that govern the local dynamics, which are analyzed here. A relatively large spread in proper eccentricity is observed, for the members of two chaotic groups. We show that different types of chaos govern the motion of bodies within each group, depending on the extent of overlap among the components of the corresponding resonant multiplets. In particular, one group appears to be strongly diffusive, while the other is not. Studying the evolution of the diffusive group and applying statistical methods, we estimate the age of the family to be τ=(8.7±1.7) Myr. This value is statistically compatible with that of 8.3 Myr previously derived by Nesvorný et al. [Nesvorný, D., Bottke, W.F., Levison, H.F., Dones, L., 2003. Astrophys. J. 591, 486-497], who analyzed the secular evolution of family members on regular orbits. Our methodology, applied here in the case of the Veritas family, can be used to reconstruct the orbital history of other, dynamically complex, asteroid families and derive approximate age estimates for young asteroid families, located in diffusive regions of the main belt. Possible refinements of the method are also discussed.     

Clues to the origin of jupiter’s trojans: the libration amplitude distribution

We model with numerical algorithms the dynamical processes that possibly lead to the trapping of Jupiter’s Trojans from a primordial population of planetesimals orbiting nearby a proto-Jupiter. The predictions of models based on mutual planetesimal collisions and on the mass growth of Jupiter are compared with observations. In particular, we concentrate on the distribution of the libration amplitude. The two mechanisms for trapping reproduce closely the libration amplitude distribution of the real Trojans only when the long-term dynamical diffusion described by Levison et al. (1997, Nature 385, 42-44) is taken into account.     

Detection of radiation pressure acting on 2009 BD

We report the direct detection of radiation pressure on the asteroid 2009 BD, one of the smallest multi-opposition near-Earth objects currently known, with H ∼ 28.4. Under the purely gravitational model of NEODyS the object is currently considered a possible future impactor, with impact solutions starting in 2071. The detection of a radiation-related acceleration allows us to estimate an Area to Mass Ratio (AMR) for the object, that can be converted (under some assumptions) into a range of possible values for its average density. Our result AMR = (2.97 ± 0.33) × 10⁻⁴ m² kg⁻¹ is compatible with the object being of natural origin, and it is narrow enough to exclude a man-made nature. The possible origin of this object, its future observability, and the importance of radiation pressure in the impact monitoring process are also discussed.     

Dynamical erosion of the asteroid belt and implications for large impacts in the inner Solar System

The cumulative effects of weak resonant and secular perturbations by the major planets produce chaotic behavior of asteroids on long timescales. Dynamical chaos is the dominant loss mechanism for asteroids with diameters in the current asteroid belt. In a numerical analysis of the long-term evolution of test particles in the main asteroid belt region, we find that the dynamical loss history of test particles from this region is well described with a logarithmic decay law. In our simulations the loss rate function that is established at persists with little deviation to at least . Our study indicates that the asteroid belt region has experienced a significant amount of depletion due to this dynamical erosion—having lost as much as ∼50% of the large asteroids—since 1 Myr after the establishment of the current dynamical structure of the asteroid belt. Because the dynamical depletion of asteroids from the main belt is approximately logarithmic, an equal amount of depletion occurred in the time interval 10-200 Myr as in 0.2-4 Gyr, roughly ∼30% of the current number of large asteroids in the main belt over each interval. We find that asteroids escaping from the main belt due to dynamical chaos have an Earth-impact probability of ∼0.3%. Our model suggests that the rate of impacts from large asteroids has declined by a factor of 3 over the last 3 Gyr, and that the present-day impact flux of objects on the terrestrial planets is roughly an order of magnitude less than estimates currently in use in crater chronologies and impact hazard risk assessments.     

Orbit determination with very short arcs: II. Identifications

When the observational data are not enough to compute a meaningful orbit for an asteroid/comet we can represent the data with an attributable, i.e., two angles and their time derivatives. The undetermined variables range and range rate span an admissible region of Solar System orbits, which can be sampled by a set of Virtual Asteroids (VAs) selected by means of an optimal triangulation [Milani, A., Gronchi, G.F., de' Michieli Vitturi, M., Kne?evi?, Z., 2004. Celest. Mech. Dyn. Astron. 90, 59-87]. The attributable 4 coordinates are the result of a fit and they have an uncertainty, represented by a covariance matrix. Two short arcs of observations, represented by two attributables, can be linked by considering for each VA (in the admissible region of the first arc) the covariance matrix for the prediction at the time of the second arc, and by comparing it with the attributable of the second arc with its own covariance. By defining an identification penalty we can select the VAs allowing to fit together both arcs and compute a preliminary orbit. Two attributables may not be enough to compute an orbit with convergent differential corrections. Thus the preliminary orbit is used in a constrained differential correction, providing solutions along the Line Of Variation which can be used as second generation VAs to further predict the observations at the time of a third arc. In general the identification with a third arc will ensure a well determined orbit, to which additional sets of observations can be attributed. To test these algorithms we use a large scale simulation and measure the completeness, the reliability and the efficiency of the overall procedure to build up orbits by accumulating identifications. Under the conditions expected for the next generation asteroid surveys, the methods developed in this and in the preceding papers are efficient enough to be used as primary identification methods, with very good results. One important property is that the completeness in finding the possible identifications is as good for comparatively rare orbits, such as the ones of Near-Earth Objects, as for main belt orbits.     

A dynamical solution of the triple asteroid system (45) Eugenia

We present the first dynamical solution of the triple asteroid system (45) Eugenia and its two moons Petit–Prince (diameter ∼ 7 km) and S/2004 (45) 1 (diameter ∼ 5 km). The two moons orbit at 1165 and 610 km from the primary, describing an almost-circular orbit (e ∼ 6 × 10⁻³ and e ∼ 7 × 10⁻² respectively). The system is quite different from the other known triple systems in the main belt since the inclinations of the moon orbits are sizeable (9° and 18° with respect to the equator of the primary respectively). No resonances, neither secular nor due to Lidov–Kozai mechanism, were detected in our dynamical solution, suggesting that these inclinations are not due to excitation modes between the primary and the moons. A 10-year evolution study shows that the orbits are slightly affected by perturbations from the Sun, and to a lesser extent by mutual interactions between the moons. The estimated J₂ of the primary is three times lower than the theoretical one, calculated assuming the shape of the primary and an homogeneous interior, possibly suggesting the importance of other gravitational harmonics.     

Orbital YORP and asteroid orbit evolution, with application to Apophis

Photon thrust from shape alone can produce quasi-secular changes in an asteroid's orbital elements. An asteroid in an elliptical orbit with a north–south shape asymmetry can steadily alter its elements over timescales longer than one orbital trip about the Sun. This thrust, called here orbital YORP (YORP = Yarkovsky–O'Keefe–Radzievskii–Paddack), operates even in the absence of thermal inertia, which the Yarkovsky effects require. However, unlike the Yarkovsky effects, which produce secular orbital changes over millions or billions of years, the change in an asteroid's orbital elements from orbital YORP operates only over the precession timescale of the orbit or of the asteroid's spin axis; this is generally only thousands or tens of thousands of years. Thus while the orbital YORP timescale is too short for an asteroid to secularly journey very far, it is long enough to warrant investigation with respect to 99942 Apophis, which might conceivably impact the Earth in 2036. A near-maximal orbital YORP effect is found by assuming Apophis is without thermal inertia and is shaped like a hemisphere, with its spin axis lying in the orbital plane. With these assumptions orbital YORP can change its along-track position by up to ±245 km, which is comparable to Yarkovsky effects. Though Apophis' shape, thermal properties, and spin axis orientation are currently unknown, the practical upper and lower limits are liable to be much less than the ±245 km extremes. Even so, the uncertainty in position is still likely to be much larger than the 0.5 km “keyhole” Apophis must pass through during its close approach in 2029 in order to strike the Earth in 2036.     

Surface thermophysical properties on the potentially hazardous asteroid (99942) Apophis

We investigate the surface thermophysical properties(thermal emissivity, thermal inertia,roughness fraction and geometric albedo) of asteroid(99942) Apophis, using the currently available mid-infrared observations from CanariC am on Gran Telescopio CANARIAS and far-infrared data from PACS on Herschel, based on the Advanced Thermophysical Model. We show that the thermal emissivity of Apophis should be wavelength dependent from 8.70 μm to 160 μm, and the maximum emissivity may appear around 20 μm, similar to that of Vesta. Moreover, we further derive the thermal inertia,roughness fraction, geometric albedo and effective diameter of Apophis within a possible 1σ scale of Γ = 100_(-52)~(+100)+Jm~(-2)s~(-0.5)K~(-1), f_r = 0.78~1.0, p_v = 0.286_(-0.026)~(+0.030) and D_(eff) = 378_(-25)~(+19)m, and 3σscale of Γ = 100_(-100)~(+240)Jm~(-2)s~(-0.5) K~(-1), f_r = 0.2~1.0, p_v = 0.286_(-0.029)~(+0.039) and D_(eff) = 378_(-29)~(+27) m. The derived low thermal inertia but high roughness fraction may imply that Apophis could have regolith on its surface, where stronger space weathering but weaker regolith migration has happened in comparison with asteroid Itokawa. Our results show that small-size asteroids could also have fine regolith on the surface, and further infer that Apophis may have been delivered from the Main Belt by the Yarkovsky effect.     

Topocentric orbit determination: Algorithms for the next generation surveys

The process of calculating a good orbit from astrometric observations of the same object involves three main steps: preliminary orbit determination, least squares orbit fitting, and quality control assessing the orbit's uncertainty and reliability. For the next generation sky surveys, with much larger number density of observations, new algorithms, or at least substantial revisions of the classical ones, are needed. The classical theory of preliminary orbit algorithms was incomplete in that the consequences of the topocentric correction had not been fully studied. We show that it is possible to rigorously account for topocentric observations and that this correction may increase the number of alternate preliminary orbits without impairing the overall performance. We have developed modified least squares algorithms including the capability of fitting the orbit to a reduced number of parameters. The restricted fitting techniques can be used to improve the reliability of the orbit computing procedure when the observed arcs have small curvature. False identification (where observations of different objects are incorrectly linked together) can be discarded with a quality control on the residuals and a ‘normalization’ procedure removing duplications and contradictions. We have tested our algorithms on two simulations based on the expected performance of Pan-STARRS—one of the next generation all-sky surveys. The results confirm that large sets of discoveries can be handled very efficiently resulting in good quality orbits. In these tests we lost only 0.6 to 1.3% of the possible objects, with a false identification rate in the range 0.02 to 0.06%.     

Linking large-parallax Spitzer–CFHT–VLT astrometry of asteroids

We show that the new ephemeris-space multiple-address-comparison (eMAC) method solves asteroid linking problems despite large parallaxes by applying the method to astrometric asteroid observation sets obtained nearly simultaneously with the Spitzer space telescope, the Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope (CFHT), and European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope (VLT). For main-belt asteroids, the parallax between Spitzer and the Earth-based telescopes is approximately one degree which is large as compared to a typical parallax for solely Earth-based telescopes in the arcseconds regime. In the eMAC method, we reduce the initially huge amount of possible linkages between observation sets by comparing samples of ephemerides that have been computed separately for all sets at, say, three common dates. If the non-zero ephemeris probability densities overlap at all common dates, we try to find an orbit solution for these so-called trial linkages. If there exists an orbit which reproduces all the astrometric observations assuming predefined observational errors, we call it a linkage. Known asteroids are independently identified among Spitzer, CFHT, and VLT astrometry, and comparing the identified observations to the linkages found shows that the method found all known correct linkages present in the data. In addition, we also found five previously unpublished linkages between Spitzer astrometry and Earth-based astrometry. Based on our simulations, we found virtually all Spitzer-related linkages between two single-night observation sets, and more than 99.4% of linkages between two single-night observation sets obtained by Earth-based observatories. Virtually all correct linkages consisting of at least three single-night sets were also detected. The results show that large-parallax discovery observations made from a spacecraft can be linked to Earth-based follow-up observations to ensure that the objects are not lost. Furthermore, we compute the heliocentric and Spitzer-centric distances as well as the corresponding solar phase angles at the dates of Spitzer observations. Based on comparisons to simulated geocentric observations, we also show that, for typical nearly-simultaneous observations, the parallax reduces the distance uncertainties by several orders of magnitude.     

Quantitative mineral analysis of (99942) Apophis using reflectance spectroscopy

The impact threat of some near-Earth Asteroids (NEAs) drives our need to understand their mineral compositions. Quantitative mineral abundances based on reflectance spectroscopy are of great significance for studying the compositions of NEAs. In this study, we constrained the surface mineralogy of (99942) Apophis based on multiple diagnostic spectral parameters. The influence of non-mineral component factors (e.g., space weathering, phase angle, and surface temperature) on diagnostic spectral parameters was evaluated. We established the connection between Apophis and corresponding meteorite analog. Our results show that the abundances of olivine and pyroxene on the surface of Apophis are 53.4 ± 6 wt% and 35.6 ± 2 wt%, respectively. The 1 μm band width is basically unaffected by phase-angle changes and is less affected by temperature variations. Low temperature has more obvious effects on the 1.25/1 μm band depth ratio (BDR 1.25) based on the present data. When the phase angle ranges from 60° to 120°, the BDR 1.25 changes significantly with the increase or decrease of phase angle. In terms of spectral characteristics, the best meteorite analog of Apophis is LL chondrite, confirming earlier interpretations. Mineral analyses based on multiple diagnostic spectral parameters provide more consistent results. Knowledge of the surface compositions of Apophis can also inform optimum or possible defense strategies for it and other NEAs.     

Orbital evolution of small binary asteroids

About 15% of both near-Earth and main-belt asteroids with diameters below 10 km are now known to be binary. These small asteroid binaries are relatively uniform and typically contain a fast-spinning, flattened primary and a synchronously rotating, elongated secondary that is 20-40% as large (in diameter) as the primary. The principal formation mechanism for these binaries is now thought to be YORP (Yarkovsky-O’Keefe-Radzievskii-Paddack) effect induced spin-up of the primary followed by mass loss and accretion of the secondary from the released material. It has previously been suggested (?uk, M. [2007]. Astrophys. J. 659, L57-L60) that the present population of small binary asteroids is in a steady state between production through YORP and destruction through binary YORP (BYORP), which should increase or decrease secondary’s orbit, depending on the satellite’s shape. However, BYORP-driven evolution has not been directly modeled until now. Here we construct a simple numerical model of the binary’s orbital as well the secondary’s rotational dynamics which includes BYORP and selected terms representing main solar perturbations. We find that many secondaries should be vulnerable to chaotic rotation even for relatively low-eccentricity mutual orbits. We also find that the precession of the mutual orbit for typical small binary asteroids might be dominated by the perturbations from the prolate and librating secondary, rather than the oblate primary. When we evolve the mutual orbit by BYORP we find that the indirect effects on the binary’s eccentricity (through the coupling between the orbit and the secondary’s spin) dominate over direct ones caused by the BYORP acceleration. In particular, outward evolution causes eccentricity to increase and eventually triggers chaotic rotation of the secondary. We conclude that the most likely outcome will be reestablishing of the synchronous lock with a “flipped” secondary which would then evolve back in. For inward evolution we find an initial decrease of eccentricity and secondary’s librations, to be followed by later increase. We think that it is likely that various forms of dissipation we did not model may damp the secondary’s librations close to the primary, allowing for further inward evolution and a possible merger. We conclude that a merger or a tidal disruption of the secondary are the most likely outcomes of the BYORP evolution. Dissociation into heliocentric pairs by BYORP alone should be very difficult, and satellite loss might be restricted to the minority of systems containing more than one satellite at the time.