An inverse problem methodology for multiple parameter estimation in bend stiffeners

The flexible riser top connection is a critical region for lifetime assessment due to large tension/curvature variations and modeling uncertainties. The bend stiffener polyurethane mechanical response not only presents a nonlinear loading rate and temperature dependency but is also subjected to weather ageing during operation, which may affect its mechanical behavior over time. The top tension, employed for riser local cross-section stress calculation, is usually obtained from global dynamic analyses performed under selected environmental conditions, if direct measurement is not available. As a consequence, both the bend stiffener effect on the curvature distribution and the top tension time series present inherent uncertainties for riser lifetime (re)assessment. In the present work, a proposed monitoring approach composed by gyrometers installed along flexible riser/bend stiffener top connection system length combined with an inverse problem methodology is numerically investigated to estimate the following parameters: (i) polyurethane hyperelastic response and (ii) effective top tension. The top connection system is modeled using a large deflection beam bending model and the parameters are estimated using a damped least-square minimization approach with the Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm. For the preliminary feasibility investigation, the gyrometer experimental data is numerically estimated through Monte Carlo simulations. A case study is carried out to investigate the influence that the number of sensors, sensors arrangement, loading conditions and top connection model have on the inverse parameters estimation. The results indicate that the proposed monitoring approach and inverse parameter estimation methodology may effectively reduce flexible riser lifetime calculation uncertainties.     

A note on estimation of the Jacobian elliptic parameter in cnoidal wave theory

A new and simple calculating technique for the Jacobian elliptic parameter is presented in this study. The technique is very useful in generating a train of cnoidal waves in both laboratory and numerical wave tanks. Upon specification of water depth, the wave height and either the wave period or the wavelength, the proposed technique uses the Newton–Raphson method to estimate the Jacobian elliptic parameter directly, without trial and error procedures or look-up in tables. It is shown that the technique provides equally accurate results as the ad hoc methods previously used.     

Robust LS-SVM regression for ore grade estimation in a seafloor hydrothermal sulphide deposit

Due to the geological complexities of ore body formation and limited borehole sampling, this paper proposes a robust weighted least square support vectormachine (LS-SVM) regression model to solve the ore grade estimation for a seafloor hydrothermal sulphide deposit in Solwara 1, which consists of a large proportion of incomplete samples without ore types and grade values. The standard LS-SVM classification model is applied to identify the ore type for each in complete sample. Then, a weighted K-nearest neighbor (WKNN) algorithm is proposed to interpolate the missing values. Prior to modeling, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to obtain an appropriate splitting for the training and test data sets so as to eliminate the large discrepancies caused by randomdivision. Coupled simulated annealing (CSA) and grid search using 10-fold cross validation techniques are adopted to determine the optimal tuning parameters in the LS-SVM models. The effectiveness of the proposed model by comparing with other well-known techniques such as inverse distance weight (IDW), ordinary kriging (OK), and back propagation (BP) neural network is demonstrated. The experimental results show that the robust weighted LS-SVM outperforms the othermethods, and has strong predictive and generalization ability.     

文蛤早期发育阶段生长性状遗传参数的估计

采用部分因子设计构建了23个全同胞家系,应用单性状及两性状动物模型对文蛤(Meretrix meretrix)早期不同生长发育时期的生长性状进行遗传力和相关性估计。结果表明,文蛤附着变态期以及稚贝期生长性状的遗传力并无显著差别,在0.11~0.41范围内变化,属于中等遗传力。非遗传的共同环境效应随着年龄的增长而呈现上升趋势,由附着变态期的0.02逐渐增加到稚贝期的0.38,且稚贝期的共同环境效应显著大于其附着变态期(P0.01)。壳长与壳高表型相关和遗传相关的分析结果显示,从附着变态期到稚贝期,壳长与壳高之间的表型相关及遗传相关都存在极显著的正相关性,相关系数的范围分别为0.84~0.95、0.93~0.99。早期发育连续时间段生长性状之间的遗传相关均为正相关,但并不显著,且不同时期的遗传相关也不尽相同(0.34~0.71)。     

基于回归分析的滨海湿地草本植物生物量估算方法研究

为了研究利用滨海湿地草本植物的形态指标来估算植物生物量,根据黄河三角洲互花米草(Spartina alterniflora)的调查数据,运用Pearson相关系数和回归分析法,分析了互花米草的形态指标高度、密度、茎直径与地上生物量、地下生物量、总生物量的相关性,构建了回归模型。结果表明:地上生物量和总生物量均与植株高度、密度、茎直径在0.01水平上显著相关,地下生物量与植株密度在0.01水平上显著相关。将相关性显著的生物量和相应的形态指标进行回归分析发现,其拟合优度较好,其中,拟合优度最优的回归模型分别是地上生物量与高度的“J”型增长曲线模型(拟合优度为R²=0.904)、总生物量与密度的一元线性回归模型(拟合优度为R²=0.659)。经过应用精度验证,上述两个模型评价结果均较好,估算值与实测值绝对误差范围为0.01~0.17 kg/m²,相对误差范围为0.71%~12.02%,符合实际估算应用需求。研究结果说明互花米草的生物量可以通过与其相关性较高的形态指标进行回归估算获得。     

Genetic parameter estimation for juvenile growth and upper thermal tolerance in turbot (Scophthalmus maximus Linnaeus)

Twenty-six half-sib groups(53 full-sib families) of turbot, Scophthalmus maximus Linnaeus, were obtained by artificial insemination. We measured growth in the offspring(40–50 individuals/family) and subjected them to a thermal tolerance challenge over a period of 34 d. There was no significant difference in daily mortality(range: 0.580%–1.391%) between Days 1–13 during the thermal tolerance challenge. However, daily cumulative mortality increased rapidly between Days 14 and 29, especially on Days 15 and 16(20.232% and 34.377%, respectively). Mortality was highest on Day 16(14.145%). We estimated the genetic parameters using the average information restricted maximum likelihood method. We used a likelihood ratio test to evaluate the significance of effects in models with and without identity as an effect, and compared the final log-likelihoods(maximum log L). Lastly, we estimated phenotypic and genetic correlation between the upper thermal tolerance limit(UTT) and body weight(BW). In this study, the positive phenotypic correlation was low between UTT and BW(0.093±0.029). The genetic correlation between UTT and BW was negative(-0.044±0.239). The heritability for upper thermal tolerance was low(0.087±0.032), which is of approximately moderate heritability. The heritability for body weight was high(0.303±0.074). Our results suggest there is significant potential for improvement in the culture of turbot by selective breeding.     

南海及周边海域风浪流耦合同化精细化数值预报与信息服务系统简介

面向社会需求,建立覆盖南海及周边海域的高分辨率风-浪-流耦合同化数值预报与信息服务系统。系统包含耦合同化数值预报模式、海洋动力环境数据库与可视化平台两部分。其中,耦合同化数值预报模式由中尺度大气数值预报模式、海浪数值预报模式和区域海洋环流数值模式,在C-Coupler耦合器中进行耦合,引入集合调整Kalman滤波同化模块,在耦合预报前进行大气、海浪和海流的同化后报模拟,为耦合预报模式提供更为精确的初始场。预报结果经海洋动力环境数据库和可视化平台处理后,通过二维和三维可视化展示,向用户提供直观的南海及周边海域海洋环境预报产品。     

A simplified hindcast method for the estimation of extreme storm surge events in semi-enclosed basins

Human presence, coastal erosion, and tourism activities are increasing the attention to coastal flooding risk. To perform risk assessments, long time series of observed or hindcast wave parameters and tide levels are then necessary. In some cases, only a few years of observation are available, so that observed extreme data are not always representative and reliable. A hindcast system aimed to reconstruct long time series of total tide levels may be of great help to perform robust extreme events analysis and then to protect human life, activities as well as to counteract coastal erosion by means of risk assessments. This work aims to propose a simplified method to hindcast storm surge levels time series in semi-enclosed basins with low computational costs. The method is an extension of a previous work of some of the authors and consists of a mixed approach in which the estimation of storm surge obtained by using the theory of linear dynamic system is corrected by using a statistical method. Both steps are characterized by low computational costs. Nevertheless, the results may be considered reliable enough also in view of the simplicity of the approach. The proposed method has been applied to the Manfredonia case study, a small village located in the Southern Adriatic Italian coast and often prone to coastal flooding events. The comparison of extreme events estimated on the basis of hindcast levels time series is satisfactorily similar to those estimated on the basis of observed tide series.     

A new method for determining threshold in using PGCEVD to calculate return values of typhoon wave height

In using the PGCEVD (Poisson-Gumbel Compound Extreme Value Distribution) model to calculate return values of typhoon wave height, the quantitative selection of the threshold has blocked its application. By analyzing the principle of the threshold selection of PGCEVD model and in combination of the change point statistical methods, this paper proposes a new method for quantitative calculation of the threshold in PGCEVD model. Eleven samples from five engineering points in several coastal waters of Guangdong and Hainan, China, are calculated and analyzed by using PGCEVD model and the traditional Pearson type III distribution (P-Ⅲ) model, respectively. By comparing the results of the two models, it is shown that the new method of selecting the optimal threshold is feasible. PGCEVD model has more stable results than that of P-Ⅲ model and can be used for the return wave height in every direction.