气候变化对关中地区粮食产量的影响

本文在对关中地区粮食产量与气象因子影响分析的基础上，建立了产量、气象因子的回归模型．由此模拟出不同气候变化条件下粮食产量变化的情况：对关中地区农业生产来说，温度变化带来的影响远大于降水变化的影响，且东西部影响效应囵子正好相反，气候变暖对东部地区小麦、玉米均产生极为不利影响，但对西部却有明显增产效应；降水对东西部的影响一致，但对东部非灌区的增产效应更为显著．     

气候变化影响下我国农业经济评价问题探讨

年代际的全球变化预测及其区域适应 ,是一个属于自然科学和社会科学相互交叉领域的问题。作者将全球气候变化研究与经济学研究结合起来进行探索性思考 ,提出了气候变化与人类经济活动相互关系的研究领域中 4个有待探讨的问题 ,并重点针对其中气候变化对我国农业的影响 ,及气候变化影响下我国农业经济评价问题进行了探讨 ,同时初步讨论了经济评估的验证问题。     

气候变化对植物气候生产力的影响

分析了我国大体分布均匀的３５０个站点近４０年植物气候生产力的时空变化及５０、６０、７０、８０年代距平场变化，并讨论了“暖干型“、“暖湿型“、“冷湿型“、“冷干型“气候对植物气候生产力的影响。     

气候变化对区域经济影响的投入-产出模型研究

利用经济学“投入-产出”分析方法的基本原理，结合气候变化对工业影响的统计模型、对 农业产量影响的计算机模拟系统，建立了气候变化对区域经济影响的投入-产出模型。研究 了当气候变化对工业、农业部门的生产和产品发生影响时，导致的对国民经济其他部门的拉 动需求量和各个部门间的投入-产出流量的变化，从而预测各个部门的国内生产总值和总产 出量，对２０１０，２０２０年的经济发展。综合分析 气候变化对各部门的影响，找出适应区域经济平衡发展的适应对策，为决策者 提供一些参考建议。     

山东省气候变化及农业自然灾害对粮食产量的影响

根据山东省196l～2000年气象与粮食产量资料,利用统计分析方法,分析了气候变化、农业自然灾害对粮食产量的影响。研究表明：①20世纪60年代以来,山东省气候有变暖和变干的趋势,各季节中,变暖趋势最明显的是冬季,变干表现最突出的是夏季;②气温和降水是造成山东省粮食产量波动的主要原因,在“暖干”气候背景下,气温与气候产量为负相关,降水量与气候产量呈较显著的正相关;③农业自然灾害是造成粮食单产产生波动的主要原因之一。     

气候变化对宝鸡市作物气候生产力的影响

利用1960--2009年宝鸡市11个气象站年平均温度及降水资料,应用TuynthwhiteMemoral模式计算宝鸡地区作物气候生产力状况,同时分析影响因子的显著性。结果表明：降水量是影响宝鸡地区作物生产力的主要因子,气候变化对作物气候生产力影响显著,“暖湿型”气候对全区都十分有利,平均增产幅度约6．5％～7．2％;“冷干型”气候对全区都十分不利,减产幅度为7．3％～6．5％。“冷湿型”气候对川塬区较为有利,而对山区不利;“暖干型”气候对秦岭以北大部分地区较为不利。     

冬季气候影响评价

冬季（1995年12月～1996年2月）平均气温北疆正常，南疆正常略偏低；降水北疆正常，南疆正常略偏多，灾害性天气少于往年。冬季北疆大部地区积雪偏薄。1气候概况1．1气温季平均气温，北疆地区为－12．5℃，南疆地区为－8．4℃，与常年同期比较，北疆正常，南疆正常略偏低。各月气温变化情况：12月气温正常，月平均气温北疆北部的阿勒泰地区偏高2．2～4．1℃，北疆西部的伊犁地区偏低1．0～2．2℃，北疆沿天山一带除乌鲁木齐偏高2．0．C，其余大部地区接近常年；南疆地区除哈密、那善、巴音布鲁克偏低2．l～5．3C，其余大部地区接近常年。l…     

浅谈20世纪90年代后的气候变化对农业生产的影响及措施

林口县位于黑龙江省的东南部,129°17'～30°45'E,44°46'～45°58'N。在张广才岭、老爷岭、达山余脉之间的“低山丘陵”。气候特点属中温大陆性季风气候,冬季寒冷少雪、春季少雨干、夏季降水分段集中、秋季凉爽,初霜偏早。由于复杂的地形影响,各乡镇气候差异较大,多项气要素的分布也很不均匀。但光、热、水三大气候素能满足农作物生长发育的需要。为了更好地发农业生产潜力,充分合理利用气候资源,以科带动农业生产的发展,根据林口县气象局957～2003年气候资料进行初步地计算分析,研了1991～2003年气候变化对农业生产及有关方的影响;根据气…     

气候波动对兴安盟农业经济的影响及其对策

在分析兴安盟近4O年气候变化基础上，着重分析了近40年气候波动变化对兴安盟农业经济诸要素的影响，并提出趋利避害，合理开发利用气候资源的对策和建议。     

用经济-气候模型模拟粮食单产的方法探讨

综合考虑作物生育期内逐旬光、温、水气候条件的影响,通过SVD和EOF方法构建一个综合气候因子,结合经济资料建立吉林省经济-气候模型,并应用于吉林省粮食单产的模拟和年景评估。结果表明:综合气候因子对吉林省粮食单产的影响主要为正效应,经济-气候模型能对吉林省粮食单产和年景进行较好的评估。     

气候变化对中国农业生产的影响研究进展

气候变化已成为当今科学界、各国政府和社会公众普遍关注的环境问题之一,气候变化可能对生态系统和社会经济产生灾难性影响,农业是受气候变化影响最直接的脆弱行业。因此,气候变化对农业生产的影响研究一直是气候变化研究领域中的热点问题之一。该文系统介绍了有关全球气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究的现状与进展,包括气候变化对农业影响的研究方法、大气中温室气体浓度增加对农作物的影响试验、气候变化对农业气候资源的影响、气候变化对农作物生长发育和产量的影响、气候变化对农业种植制度和品种布局的影响、气候变化对农作物气候生产潜力和气候资源利用率的影响等,指出当前在研究气候变化对农业影响评估中存在的问题,提出了今后应加强对气候变化情景和预测模式不确定性的研究、气候变化对农业影响的方法研究。此外,气候变化背景下极端天气气候事件对农业生产的影响以及气候变化对农业病虫害的影响研究等仍较薄弱,有待进一步加强和深入。     

华北地区未来气候变化的高分辨率数值模拟

使用20km高水平分辨率的区域气候模式RegCM3,单向嵌套FvGCM/CCM3全球模式,进行了中国区域气候变化的数值模拟试验,分析华北地区夏半年4-9月的气温、降水和高温、干旱事件的变化。模式积分时间分为两个时段,分别为当代的1961-1990年和在IPCC SRES A2温室气体排放情景下的21世纪末2071-2100年。模式检验结果表明:在大部分月份,区域模式对当代气候的模拟都较全球模式更好。两个模式模拟的未来气温和降水变化,在空间分布型和量级上都有一定不同,如区域模式的升温更高,降水出现大范围减少等。此外,使用日最高气温不低于35℃的日数(D_(T35))和考虑了湿度因素的炎热指数(I_(H))不低于35℃的日数(D_(H135)),分析了区域模式模拟的未来高温事件变化,结果表明:未来华北地区D_(T35)和平原地区D_(H135)均有较大增加。未来华北地区的连续干旱日数(CDD)将增加,依照UNEP(United Nations Environment Programme)干旱指数(A_(U))给出的气候湿润区将有较大幅度减少,而半湿润半干旱区和半干旱区面积将增加。     

聊城气候变化特征及其对农业生产的影响

对聊城市４２年来的气候资料进行分析,找出主要家业气候学因子的变化规律和特征,论证了气候变化对聊城市农业生产的影响。     

Agricultural Land Use Effects on Climate over China as Simulated by a Regional Climate Model

The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) is used to investigate the climate effects of land use change related to agriculture over China. The model is driven by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast 40-yr Re-Analysis (ERA40)data. Two sets of experiments for 15 yr (1987-2001) are conducted, one with the potential vegetation cover and the other the agricultural land use (AG). The results show that the AG effects on temperature are weak over northern China while in southern China a significant cooling is found in both winter (December-January-February) and summer (June-July-August). The mean cooling in the sub-regions of South China (SC) in winter and the sub-regions of Southeast (SE) China in summer are found to be the greatest,up to 0.5℃ and 0.8℃, respectively. In general, the change of AG leads to a decrease of annual mean temperature by 0.5-1℃ in southern China. Slight change of precipitation in western China and a decrease of precipitation in eastern China are simulated in winter, with the maximum reduction reaching -7.5% over SE. A general decrease of precipitation over northern China and an increase over southern China are simulated in summer,in particular over SE where the increase of precipitation can be up to 7.3%. The AG effects on temperature and precipitation show strong interannual variability. Comparison of the climate effects between AG and the present-day land use (LU) is also performed. In southern China, the ratio of temperature (precipitation)changes caused by AG and LU is greater than (closer to) the ratio of the number of grid cells with changed vegetation cover due to AG and LU variations.     

气候变暖对中国不同地区农业的影响

Based on the China Rural Statistical Yearbook of 1984-2003 published by State Statistics Bureau,and the annual temperature in the same period,impacts of temperature change,agricultural input,and planting area on grin production were analyzed for different regions of China during the last 20 years.The results show that the main characteristic of climate warming has obviously promoted the increase of grain yield in Northeast China.but to some extent suppressed it in North China,Northwest China and Southwest China,and shown no obvious effect on it in East China and Central-South China.The increase in agricultural input facilitated the grain production obviously in various regions in the early stage of the past 20 years,but showed no obvious effect in the late stage.The continuous reduction in sown area had a significant negative effect on the grain production in East China and Central-South China.     

气候异常对农业生产影响评估技术研究

利用风险度的概念来表征气候异常对农业生产的影响程序,并提出风险度的计算公式,讨论了贵州主要「灾害风险度的一般规律,指出：对任何生产对象而言,干旱的风险度最大,洪涝、风雹、低温霜冻的风险度都较小;就地区分布而言,干旱、洪涝、风雹、低温霜冻风险度最大的区域基本上出现在严重夏旱区、严重秋季绵雨区、严重冰雹区、严重霜冻区。     

Assessing the Impacts of Eurasian Snow Conditions on Climate Predictability with a Global Climate Model

On the basis of two ensemble experiments conducted by a general atmospheric circulation model (Institute of Atmospheric Physics nine-level atmospheric general circulation model coupled with land surface model, hereinafter referred to as IAP9L_CoLM), the impacts of realistic Eurasian snow conditions on summer climate predictability were investigated. The predictive skill of sea level pressures (SLP) and middle and upper tropospheric geopotential heights at mid-high latitudes of Eurasia was enhanced when improved Eurasian snow conditions were introduced into the model. Furthermore, the model skill in reproducing the interannual variation and spatial distribution of the surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over China was improved by applying realistic (prescribed) Eurasian snow conditions. The predictive skill of the summer precipitation in China was low; however, when realistic snow conditions were employed, the predictability increased, illustrating the effectiveness of the application of realistic Eurasian snow conditions. Overall, the results of the present study suggested that Eurasian snow conditions have a significant effect on dynamical seasonal prediction in China. When Eurasian snow conditions in the global climate model (GCM) can be more realistically represented, the predictability of summer climate over China increases.     

Impact of Climate Warming in the Past 20 Years on Agriculture in Different Regions of China

 Based on the China Rural Statistical Yearbook of 1984-2003 published by State Statistics Bureau, and the annual temperature in the same period, impacts of temperature change, agricultural input, and planting area on grain production were analyzed for different regions of China during the last 20 years. The results show that the main characteristic of climate warming has obviously promoted the increase of grain yield in Northeast China, but to some extent suppressed it in North China, Northwest China and Southwest China, and shown no obvious effect on it in East China and Central-South China. The increase in agricultural input facilitated the grain production obviously in various regions in the early stage of the past 20 years, but showed no obvious effect in the late stage. The continuous reduction in sown area had a significant negative effect on the grain production in East China and Central-South China.