Sea Level Rise

No immediate prospect is in sight for a technically credible and unified approach to assessing the importance of sea level rises to New Zealand's coast environments. This review examines the state of disarray in the sea-level rise literature and traces reasons for such a state of affairs.     

气候变化对里海水位的影响（英文）

目前,关于里海的两个主要问题是水位变化及其生态条件。历史上,里海的海水入侵和衰退对该区域的生活和生产有很大影响。应用地质数据、历史数据和考古数据,以及观测数据,本文对地质历史时期里海水位的变化、年度和季度变化以及短期的波动进行了研究。文章对解释里海水位波动的两种不同的方法进行了论述,并认为里海水位变化是受地质、水文气候和水量平衡以及人类活动等因素的影响的多级过程,其中主要影响因素为水文气候的变化。     

小波变换在相对海平面变化研究中的应用

根据广东沿岸14个验潮站的月均序列,应用小波分析方法将其进行时域-频域分解,分析了近40多年来月平均潮位序列的多层次尺度结构,进而研究相对海平面的周期变化和趋势变化。结果表明,用小波变换研究相对海平面在时域-频域中的周期分布及变化时,能较好地揭示周期变化的局部特征;广东沿岸相对海平面变化包含着0.5年、1年、2~4年、10~11年及18~20年左右等周期变化,且周期变化在时间域中具有明显的局部化特征;据实测资料计算,周期变化对海平面的趋势变化影响明显,未消除周期变化的趋势分析结果偏大,用小波变换有效地消除周期变化后得出粤西及珠江口地区沿岸相对海平面变化率,一般而言,广东沿岸海平面呈上升趋势,上升幅度约为0.36~1.2 mm/a。     

Postglacial rebound and fault instability in Fennoscandia

The best available rebound model is used to investigate the role that postglacial rebound plays in triggering seismicity in Fennoscandia. The salient features of the model include tectonic stress due to spreading at the North Atlantic Ridge, overburden pressure, gravitationally self-consistent ocean loading, and the realistic deglaciation history and compressible earth model which best fits the sea-level and ice data in Fennoscandia. The model predicts the spatio-temporal evolution of the state of stress, the magnitude of fault instability, the timing of the onset of this instability, and the mode of failure of lateglacial and postglacial seismicity. The consistency of the predictions with the observations suggests that postglacial rebound is probably the cause of the large postglacial thrust faults observed in Fennoscandia. The model also predicts a uniform stress field and instability in central Fennoscandia for the present, with thrust faulting as the predicted mode of failure. However, the lack of spatial correlation of the present seismicity with the region of uplift, and the existence of strike-slip and normal modes of current seismicity are inconsistent with this model. Further unmodelled factors such as the presence of high-angle faults in the central region of uplift along the Baltic coast would be required in order to explain the pattern of seismicity today in terms of postglacial rebound stress. The sensitivity of the model predictions to the effects of compressibility, tectonic stress, viscosity and ice model is also investigated. For sites outside the ice margin, it is found that the mode of failure is sensitive to the presence of tectonic stress and that the onset timing is also dependent on compressibility. For sites within the ice margin, the effect of Earth rheology is shown to be small. However, ice load history is shown to have larger effects on the onset time of earthquakes and the magnitude of fault instability.     

近百年广东沿海海平面变化趋势

为预估本世纪末广东海平面的可能上升量,从探讨近百年来广东海平面上升率的阶段性变化入手,通过对广东沿海验潮站潮位观测资料的统计分析,得出广东沿海海平面近86年(1925-2010年)、近40年(1970-2010年)和近20年(1993-2010年)的上升率分别为2.1 mm/a、2.5 mm/a和3.2 mm/a,存在加速上升的趋势,并与全球大体呈准同步变化.20世纪90年代以来,广东沿海海平面上升和热带西太平洋的海平面出现突变上升有密切关系.     

基于QTM的海平面上升分析与模拟

针对海平面上升影响范围分析与模拟这一国际前沿问题,通过研究基于球面四元三角网(QTM)的关键技术问题,包括复杂拓扑关系计算、LOD剖分、球面水淹分析、基于QTM的多分辨率的DEM数据组织方法和分析精度的相关性评定等,以.Net和Direct3D为开发工具,设计开发了基于QTM的海平面上升影响范围评估模型。该研究结果可为全球海平面上升影响的防灾减灾决策提供有效支撑,并推动了球面数据模型和球面格网拓扑分析的理论成果在全球变化预测相关领域的应用进展。     

Postglacial history of a cedar swamp in southeastern Connecticut

Stratigraphic and palynologic analyses of sediment cores from a large mire, combined with geologic and hydrologic studies of its watershed, provide a late Quaternary record of environmental change at Cedar Swamp in southeastern Connecticut. Since deglaciation of the area, the basin has evolved from an open lake characterized by the rapid accumulation of allochthonous inorganic sediments to an ombrotrophic mire with peat accumulation keeping pace with the gradual rise in the water table. Lithostratigraphic, pollen, and chronologic evidence suggest that the long-term trend of basin infilling and paludification was interrupted by two intervals (14 000–13 000 and 8000–4700 yr B.P.) when the water table elevation dropped at least 1 m.     

海平面上升的灾害效应研究--以江苏沿海低地为例

海平面上升是全球变暖和沿海地区人类活动加剧的必然结果,其灾害效应直接影响沿海地区社会经济的持续发展。文章运用地面沉降与绝对海面变化叠加法和潮位记录法,预测未来30年,50年和100年江苏沿海海平面将分别上升0.30 m,0.53 m和1.37 m。在此基础上,对不同海平面上升量引起的风暴潮灾害、海岸侵蚀、潮滩盐沼损失、涵闸破坏、洪涝灾害加剧和海堤工程受损等方面的灾害效应进行了定量分析,并对江苏沿海低地进行分区灾害预警,认为海平面上升后的灾害效应在江苏中部海积平原表现得最为严重,废黄河三角洲平原和长江三角洲平原中等,而海州湾海积平原最轻。     

Sea Level Rise in Miami Beach: Vulnerability and Real Estate Exposure

Sea level rise threatens coastal communities throughout the United States, and South Florida is on the front line. The iconic and built-up city of Miami Beach, Florida, has a well-developed, high-value property market, and the municipality has been lauded for proactively taking action to adapt to anticipated sea level rise. Moving beyond hyperbole and piecemeal evidence, we compile a comprehensive inventory of adaptation and mitigation measures implemented by various municipal agencies. We employ these data sets to measure exposure and readiness for the entire city and make a preliminary effort to develop a city vulnerability index. Our findings reveal that exposure throughout the city is high and that readiness is concentrated near stormwater drainage systems, leading to high vulnerability along the coast. When we compare the spatial patterns of the vulnerability index and the residential property values, we find a mismatch. The most vulnerable regions are characterized by high income, transiency, and an apparent unresponsiveness to sea level rise. No doubt our findings illustrate a lag effect, but if sea level rise increases, the real estate market could reach a tipping point unless state and federal agencies also fund more comprehensive adaptation.     

重新审视珠江三角洲海面升降问题

针对近年学界和传媒对全球气候变化和海面升降的关注与争议,特别是对珠江三角洲海平面上升的预估,认为必须严肃对待,重新审视.通过分析广东地下埋藏古树蕴含的古气候信息,认为存在400年左右的冷暖周期;现代进入暖周期,加上工业化温室气体增加而引起全球升温.根据珠江三角洲典型潮位站长期和新近19年的观测记录,对珠江三角洲未来数十...     

海平面上升对广东沿海工程设计参数的影响

参照广东沿海6个岸段2030年相对海平面上升的预测值,建议提高沿海工程的设计基准面。根据高潮位升幅的数值模拟,建议提高工程的设计高潮位。在计算不同频率风暴潮潮位重现期变化的基础上,提出各岸段重现期的设防标准。在计算波高增幅的基础上,提出各岸段设计波高的增大值。     

评估滨海湿地应对海平面上升的脆弱性的研究范式

滨海湿地是海陆交界的生态过渡带,也是对气候变化极为敏感的、脆弱的生态系统,海平面上升对全球滨海湿地构成了严重威胁.为了精确预测未来海平面加速上升背景下滨海湿地的变化趋势,有必要深入开展滨海湿地应对海平面上升的脆弱性评估研究.概述了评估滨海湿地应对海平面上升的脆弱性的研究范式,评估过程包括4个步骤:确定滨海湿地的高程资本...     

1970―2009年粤东(汕尾)沿海海平面变化研究

通过对汕尾站、遮浪站潮位距平资料(SLA)与卫星观测的附近海平面高度距平资料(SHA)以及全南海海平面高度距平资料(SSHA)的比对,探讨资料的代表性和长期变化。结果表明,绝对海平面与相对海平面的多年变化趋势基本一致。采用随机动态法和二次项拟合方法分析得出,汕尾多年海平面变化呈波动上升趋势,存在显著的1年、半年、4个月和19年周期,其中年振幅为10.6 cm,且海平面高低受厄尔尼诺事件影响明显。海平面的季节变化特征与季风呈现显著相关性,认为季风导致的海面增减水对海平面的高低存在一定的作用,预估2050年海平面较常年平均高31±3cm。     

Postglacial sedimentary record and history of West Hawk Lake crater,Manitoba

West Hawk Lake (WHL) is located within the glacial Lake Agassiz basin, 140 km east of Winnipeg, Manitoba. The small lake lies in a deep, steep-sided, meteorite impact crater, which has been partly filled by 60 m of sediment that today forms a flat floor in the central part of the basin below 111 m of water. Four cores, 5–11 m in length, were collected using a Kullenberg piston gravity corer. All sediment is clay, contains no unconformities, and has low organic content in all but the upper meter. Sample analyses include bulk and clay mineralogy, major and minor elements, TOC, stable isotopes of C, N, and O, pollen, charcoal, diatoms, and floral and faunal macrofossils. The sequence is divided into four units based mainly on thickness and style of lamination, diatoms, and pollen. AMS radiocarbon dates do not provide a clear indication of age in the postglacial sequence; possible explanations include contamination by older organic inwash and downward movement of younger organic acids. A chronological framework was established using only selected AMS dates on plant macrofossils, combined with correlations to dated events outside the basin and paleotopographic reconstructions of Lake Agassiz. The 822 1-cm-thick varves in the lower 8 m of the cored WHL sequence were deposited just prior to 10,000 cal years BP (∼8,900 ¹⁴C years BP), during the glacial Lake Agassiz phase of the lake. The disappearance of dolomite near the top of the varved sequence reflects the reduced influence of Lake Agassiz and the carbonate bedrock and glacial sediment in its catchment. The lowermost varves are barren of organisms, indicating cold and turbid glacial lake waters, but the presence of benthic and planktonic algae in the upper 520 varves indicates warming; this lake phase coincides with a change in clay mineralogy, δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C in cellulose, and in some other parameters. This change may have resulted from a major drawdown in Lake Agassiz when its overflow switched from northwest to east after formation of the Upper Campbell beach of that lake 9,300–9,400 ¹⁴C years ago. The end of thick varve deposition at ∼10,000 cal years BP is related to the opening of a lower eastern outlet of Lake Agassiz and an accompanying drop in West Hawk Lake level. WHL became independent from Lake Agassiz at this time, sedimentation rates dropped, and only ∼2.5 m of sediment was deposited in the next 10,000 years. During the first two centuries of post-Lake Agassiz history, there were anomalies in the diatom assemblage, stable O and C isotopes, magnetic susceptibility, and other parameters, reflecting an unstable watershed. Modern oligotrophic conditions were soon established; charcoal abundance increased in response to the reduced distance to the shoreline and to warmer conditions. Regional warming after ∼9,500 cal years BP is indicated by pollen and diatoms as well as C and O isotope values. Relatively dry conditions are suggested by a rise in pine and decrease in spruce and other vegetation types between 9,500 and 5,000 cal years BP (∼8,500–4,400 ¹⁴C years BP), plus a decrease in δ¹³C_cell values. After this, there was a shift to slightly cooler and wetter conditions. A large increase in organic content and change in elemental concentration in the past several thousand years probably reflects a decline in supply of mineral detritus to the basin and possibly an increase in productivity.     

江苏淤泥质潮滩对海平面变化的形态响应

通过对江苏滨海平原淤泥质潮滩1980年以来19个固定潮滩断面112个测次滩面高程测量的统计分析，探讨典型淤泥质潮滩剖面形态对海平面变化的形态响应过程。结果表明，典型淤涨岸段海平面上升，多年平均潮位线以上滩面仍将淤积加高，但淤高幅度除多年平均高潮线附近滩面相对较大外，其余均较小，表明随海平面上升该滩带总体淤积速率将趋于减小；与此相反，多年平均潮位线以下滩面则趋于蚀低，且侵蚀强度较大，表明该滩带的侵蚀有加剧趋向，最终滩面总体形态将因上带不断淤高和下带不断蚀低而逐渐变陡，剖面上凸形态的曲率不断加大。曲型侵蚀岸段，海平面上升的效应则相反，海平面上升，多年平均潮位线以上滩面强烈蚀低；而多年平均潮位线以下滩面则强烈淤积加高，剖面的上凹形态最终将因上带不断蚀低和下带不断淤高而趋于平直。