Modelling groundwater over-extraction in the southern Jordan Valley with scarce data

To deal with the challenge of groundwater over-extraction in arid and semi-arid environments, it is necessary to establish management strategies based on the knowledge of hydrogeological conditions, which can be difficult in places where hydrogeological data are dispersed, scarce or present potential misinformation. Groundwater levels in the southern Jordan Valley (Jordan) have decreased drastically in the last three decades, caused by over-extraction of groundwater for irrigation purposes. This study presents a local, two-dimensional and transient numerical groundwater model, using MODFLOW, to characterise the groundwater system and the water balance in the southern Jordan Valley. Furthermore, scenarios are simulated regarding hydrological conditions and management options, like extension of arable land and closure of illegal wells, influencing the projection of groundwater extraction. A limited dataset, literature values, field surveys, and the ‘crop water-requirement method’ are combined to determine boundary conditions, aquifer parameters, and sources and sinks. The model results show good agreement between predicted and observed values; groundwater-level contours agree with the conceptual model and expected flow direction, and, in terms of water balance, flow volumes are in accordance with literature values. Average annual water consumption for irrigation is estimated to be 29 million m³ and simulation results show that a reduction of groundwater pumping by 40% could recover groundwater heads, reducing the water taken from storage. This study presents an example of how to develop a local numerical groundwater model to support management strategies under the condition of data scarcity.     

Uncertainty analysis of groundwater model based on data assimilation北大核心CSCD

黑河流域中下游地下水系统受上游冰冻圈融水和降雨的补给,由气候变暖导致的冰冻圈萎缩致使中下游地下水系统的稳定性面临更多的风险。地下水模型是地下水系统稳定性评估的有效手段,但是地下水模型参数往往存在较大的不确定性。为此,本文提出了基于数据同化算法的不确定性分析方法,通过包含观测资料信息减小模型不确定性。采用所提方法分析了(基于MODFLOW构建)黑河流域中游地下水模型中13个参数的不确定性,讨论了算法超参数的影响及其最优取值,分析了地下水模型参数的不确定性。实验结果证明数据同化算法可有效减小地下水模型参数的不确定性,观测资料的种类与数量对参数不确定性的减小起到重要作用;不同地下水模型参数的不确定性不同,地表水与地下水相互作用频繁的区域参数不确定性较大;含水层渗透系数、含水层给水度以及灌溉回流系数对模型输出的地下水位输出影响显著,河床水力传导系数对模型输出的河流流量影响较大。本研究将为地下水研究提供更加可靠的模型方法,为西北内流区地下水哺育的绿洲生态系统稳定可持续研究提供重要支撑。     

Comparison of GRACE data and groundwater levels for the assessment of groundwater depletion in Jordan

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) derived groundwater storage (GWS) data are compared with in-situ groundwater levels from five groundwater basins in Jordan, using newly gridded GRACE GRCTellus land data. It is shown that (1) the time series for GRACE-derived GWS data and in-situ groundwater-level measurements can be correlated, with R ² from 0.55 to 0.74, (2) the correlation can be widely ascribed to the seasonal and trend component, since the detrended and deseasonalized time series show no significant correlation for most cases, implying that anomalous signals that deviate from the trend or seasonal behaviour are overlaid by noise, (3) estimates for water losses in Jordan based on the trend of GRACE data from 2003 to 2013 could be up to four times higher than previously assumed using estimated recharge and abstraction rates, and (4) a significant time-lagged cross correlation of the monthly changes in GRACE-derived groundwater storage and precipitation data was found, suggesting that the conventional method for deriving GWS from GRACE data probably does not account for the typical conditions in the study basins. Furthermore, a new method for deriving plausible specific yields from GRACE data and groundwater levels is demonstrated.     

Participatory groundwater management in Jordan: Development and analysis of options

Groundwater over-exploitation has been on the rise in Jordan. Competing demands have grown in the face of perennial water shortages, a situation which has been exacerbated by drought conditions in the past decade. This paper reports findings of a project in which management options to address over-exploitation were developed for one of Jordans principal aquifer systems, the Amman-Zarqa Basin. Options for addressing the situation were developed through a participatory approach that involved government officials and various public and private sector interest groups. Particular efforts were made to involve well irrigators, who are likely to be heavily impacted by the changes required to reduce groundwater pumping to a sustainable level. With information obtained from a rapid appraisal survey as well as from interviews with farmers, community groups, government officials, and technical experts, an extensive set of options was identified for evaluation. Based on integrated hydrogeologic, social, and economic analysis, five complementary management options were recommended for implementation. These included the establishment of an Irrigation Advisory Service, buying out farm wells, placing firm limits on well abstraction and irrigated crop areas, exchanging treated wastewater for groundwater, and measures to increase the efficiency of municipal and industrial water use. Various combinations and levels of these options were grouped in scenarios, representing possible implementation strategies. The scenarios were designed to assist decision makers, well owners and other stakeholders in moving gradually towards a sustainable abstraction regime. Social and economic aspects of each option and scenario were analyzed and presented to stakeholders, together with a summary of legal, institutional and environmental ramifications. Combining scientific analysis with a participatory approach in the Amman Zarqa Basin groundwater management was devised as a prototype to be used in the management of other groundwater basins in Jordan. This participatory management approach would also be useful in other parts of the world that are experiencing similar groundwater over-exploitation problems.Résumé La surexploitation des eaux souterraines prend de limportance en Jordanie. Les demandes en concurrence ont augmenté face à des déficits permanents deau, situation qui a été exacerbée par la sécheresse de la dernière décennie. Cet article rend compte de laboutissement dun projet dans lequel des options de gestion portant sur la surexploitation ont été développées pour lun des principaux systèmes aquifères de Jordanie, le bassin dAmman Zarqa. Des options pour aborder cette situation ont été développées grâce à une approche participative qui implique des fonctionnaires du gouvernement et des groupes dintérêts variés des secteurs public et privé. Des efforts particuliers ont été faits pour impliquer les irrigants utilisant des puits, qui sont probablement ceux qui ont le plus fort impact sur les changements attendus permettant de remettre le système en équilibre. À partir des informations obtenues de campagnes rapides dévaluation, telles que des réunions de communautés et des entrevues avec des experts techniques du gouvernement, un large jeu doptions a été identifié pour lévaluation. Basées sur une analyse hydrogéologique, sociale et économique, cinq options complémentaires de gestion ont été recommandées pour la réalisation. Ce sont la création dun Service Consultatif dIrrigation, achetant les puits agricoles, fixant des limites fermes aux prélèvements des puits et aux zones irriguées, échangeant les eaux usées traitées avec des eaux souterraines, et la mise en place de mesures pour accroître lefficacité des usages collectifs et industriels. Des combinaisons et des niveaux variés de ces options ont été regroupés en scénarios, présentant les stratégies possibles de mise en uvre. Les scénarios ont été mis au point pour assister les décideurs, les propriétaires de puits et les autres acteurs pour atteindre progressivement un régime de prélèvement durable. Les aspects sociaux et économiques de chaque option et de chaque scénario ont été analysés et présentés aux acteurs, en même temps quun résumé des ramifications légales, institutionnelles et environnementales. En combinant une analyse scientifique à une approche participative du bassin dAmman Zarqa, la gestion des eaux souterraines a été imaginée comme un prototype pouvant être utilisé pour la gestion dautres bassins aquifères de Jordanie. Il peut également être utile à dautres régions du monde qui sont concernées par des problèmes similaires de surexploitation des eaux souterraines.Resumen La sobreexplotación de las aguas subterráneas ha ido en aumento en Jordania, donde las demandas en competición han crecido frente a una escasez perenne de agua, situación que ha sido agravada por el estado de sequía de la última década. Este artículo presenta los hallazgos de un proyecto en el que se han desarrollado opciones de gestión para hacer frente a la sobreexplotación en uno de los principales sistemas acuíferos de Jordania: la cuenca de Ammán-Zarga. Se ha elaborado opciones para afrontar la situación mediante un enfoque participativo que incluye a personal del gobierno y a diversos grupos de interés de los sectores público y privado. En particular, se ha intentado involucrar a los regantes que se sirven de aguas subterráneas, quienes tienen más probabilidad de ser directamente afectados por los cambios requeridos para devolver el sistema a un balance equilibrado. A partir de la información obtenida en rápidas campañas de valoración, así como de encuentros con la comunidad y entrevistas con los expertos técnicos del gobierno, se ha identificado un amplio conjunto de opciones para su evaluación. Basándose en un análisis integrado de los aspectos hidrogeológicos, sociales y económicos, se ha recomendado la implementación de cinco opciones complementarias de gestión: establecimiento de un Servicio Asesor de Riego; adquisición de pozos de granjas; imposición de límites estrictos en las extracciones de pozos y superficies de riego; substitución de las aguas subterráneas con aguas residuales depuradas; y medidas para incrementar la eficiencia de los usos municipales e industriales del agua. Se ha agrupado varias combinaciones y niveles de dichas opciones en escenarios, representando estrategias posibles de implementación. Los escenarios han sido diseñados para ayudar a los gestores en la toma de decisiones, a los propietarios de pozos y a otros agentes para que se vaya consiguiendo de forma gradual un régimen de extracciones sustentable. Se ha analizado los aspectos sociales y económicos de cada opción y de cada escenario, presentándolos a los diversos agentes, además de generar un resumen de ramificaciones legales, institucionales y medioambientales. Se ha concebido la combinación de un análisis científico con un enfoque participativo en la cuenca de Ammán-Zarga como un prototipo de gestión de las aguas subterráneas que puede ser aplicado a la gestión de otras cuencas en Jordania. También sería útil en otros lugares del mundo que estén experimentando problemas similares de sobreexplotación de los recursos hídricos subterráneos.Abbreviations and acronyms AED Academy for Educational Development - ARD Associates in Rural Development - AZB Amman–Zarqa Basin - ECC Economic Consultative Council - GMCC Groundwater Management Consultative Committee - GMF Groundwater Management Fund - GIS Geographic Information System - HDH Hashmiya–Dulayl–Hallabat - IAS Irrigation Advisory Service - JICA Japanese International Cooperation Agency - M&I Municipal and Industrial - MOA Ministry of Agriculture - MWI Ministry of Water and Irrigation - NCARTT National Center for Agricultural Research and Technology Transfer - NGO Non-governmental Organization - O&M Operations and Maintenance - RA Rapid Appraisal - RS Remote Sensing - UFW Unaccounted for Water - USAID United States Agency for International Development - WAJ Water Authority of Jordan - WEPIA Water Education & Public Information Activity - WRPS Water Resource Policy Support     

Development of groundwater modeling for the Azraq Basin, Jordan

 The three-dimensional groundwater flow model MODFLOW was applied to simulate water level change in the complex multi-aquifer systems (the Upper and Middle Aquifers) of the Azraq basin. The model was calibrated by matching observed and simulated drawdown for steady and transient states over the period 1970–1992. Drawdown data for the period 1993–1997 were used to test the model's ability to predict the response of the aquifers. The model performed well in representing the water level contours of the Upper and Middle Aquifers for steady state calibration. Agreement between the observed and simulated drawdowns was obtained for transient state calibration. To predict the aquifer system responses for the period of 1997–2025, four different pumping schemes (scenarios) have been investigated. The first scenario (present pumping rate) reveals that there will be approximately a 25 m drop in the water level at the well-field area in 2025. However, the worst scenario (pumping rate at 1.5 times the present rate) reveals an approximate 39 m drop in the water level at the well-field area in 2025. The safe yield for the Upper Aquifer System was found to be about 25 million cubic meters (MCM) yearly. Received: 24 June 1999 · Accepted: 30 November 1999     

Vulnerability mapping of shallow groundwater aquifer using SINTACS model in the Jordan Valley area, Jordan

Jordan Valley is one of the important areas in Jordan that involves dense agricultural activities, which depend on groundwater resources. The groundwater is exploited from an unconfined shallow aquifer which is mainly composed of alluvial deposits. In the vicinity of the Kafrein and South Shunah, the shallow aquifer shows signs of contamination from a wide variety of non-point sources. In this study, a vulnerability map was created as a tool to determine areas where groundwater is most vulnerable to contamination. One of the most widely used groundwater vulnerability mapping methods is SINTACS, which is a point count system model for the assessment of groundwater pollution hazards. SINTACS model is an adaptation for Mediterranean conditions of the well-known DRASTIC model. The model takes into account several environmental factors: these include topography, hydrology, geology, hydrogeology, and pedology. Spatial knowledge of all these factors and their mutual relationships is needed in order to properly model aquifer vulnerability using this model. Geographic information system was used to express each of SINTACS parameters as a spatial thematic layer with a specific weight and score. The final SINTACS thematic layer (intrinsic vulnerability index) was produced by taking the summation of each score parameter multiplied by its specific weight. The resultant SINTACS vulnerability map of the study area indicates that the highest potential sites for contamination are along the area between Er Ramah and Kafrein area. To the north of the study area there is a small, circular area which shows fairly high potential. Elsewhere, very low to low SINTACS index values are observed, indicating areas of low vulnerability potential.     

北京市平谷盆地地下水三维数值模拟及管理应用

为缓解北京城区的用水紧张问题,平谷区建立了王都庄和中桥两个应急水源地。持续过量的开采导致盆地内水位急剧下降。为研究大规模开采对平谷盆地地下水系统的影响,并分析不同地区的开采潜力,本文建立了合理刻画三维地下水流动特征的数值模型,对五种不同的开采方案进行模拟。模拟结果表明,丰水条件下地下水位回升明显,王都庄水源地补给条件优越,尤其是盆地上游地区,具有更大的开采潜力;而盆地中下部应适当限制开采,避免水位下降过快。高仿真的数值模型可作为强有力的管理辅助工具,为地下水资源分析及合理利用提供科学的技术支持。     

基于三维地质信息模型的边坡风险分析

风险分析是降低边坡灾害损失的有效途径。以地理信息系统（Arcview GIS）为二次开发平台,建立边坡风险评估系统。该系统通过建立边坡的三维地质信息模型,根据模型的物理力学参数等属性数据,运用Monte-Carlo法求出三维边坡的失效概率,在易损性分析的基础上,计算边坡失稳的经济风险和生命风险。实例分析表明,基于三维地质信息模型的边坡风险分析可为相关风险决策提供科学依据     

一种基于TIN-CPG混合空间数据模型的精细三维地质模型构建方法

精细三维地质模型的构建是实现地质体真三维可视化分析的难题之一。提出一种基于不规则三角网(TIN)和角点网格(CPG)的混合空间数据模型来构建三维精细地质模型的方法。首先建立基于TIN的构造-地层格架三维地质模型,然后进行TIN面元模型到CPG体元模型的转换,将基于TIN的构造-地层格架模型转换为基于CPG的精细网格体元地质模型,从而实现"表达上"精细三维地质模型的构建。在转换过程中首先要进行地层序列的定义,然后对空间格网进行划分,在此基础上计算格网中各个单元格的空间坐标和各个网格的有效性,并将计算结果存储为GRDECL格式文件,最后通过QuantyView3D系统读取该文件实现精细地质属性模型的展示。利用该方法对沿海某城市一个重点区域进行精细水文地质模型的构建,验证了其方法的可行性。     

面向地质应用的三维数据模型研究

对目前国内外常用的两类三维数据模型——基于面的数据模型和基于体的数据模型进行了综述。在此基础上提出了一种新的三维数据模型——基于TIN的不规则五面体模型,给出其定义,并着重介绍了实现的关键技术。      

基于地球物理资料的九瑞矿集区三维地质模型分析

基于MAPGIS K9平台开发的立体填图图示系统,用综合地球物理解释推断剖面构建了江西九瑞(九江瑞昌)矿集区三维地质模型,并通过矿集区的2个不同目标层位的查证钻孔,验证了该三维模型的精确程度。在该三维地质模型基础上分析了九瑞矿集区深部地层、岩体、构造等地质情况,为探索九瑞地区深部矿产资源远景区提供更为直观的信息。     

GIS地表塌陷计算的有限棱柱法及三维数据模型

具有强大信息管理和可视化功能的GIS已在地下硐室开挖、矿山采掘、边坡等许多工程领域中得到了广泛应用。笔者给出了一种用于地下开挖变形描述和应力分析的方法——有限棱柱法，并就该方法与GIS集成中的数据模型和数据组织方法进行了探讨，建立了基于GIS的虚拟地质体地下开挖变形描述与评价计算的三维可视化系统，并对多语言集成模式和数据可视化方法进行了探讨。同时还给出了该方法的工程应用实例，对该方法的可靠性和有效性进行了验证。     

基于CUDA的GPU并行优化重力三维反演

笔者介绍了一种在PGI Fortran平台上开发的重力三维GPU并行反演算法。该方法采用重加权正则化共轭梯度算法(Re-Weight Regularized Conjugate Gradient),可以在具有NVIDIA显卡的个人计算机上使用CUDA进行并行计算,无需借助工作站即可实现几十至上百倍的计算加速,提供稳定可信的反演结果。并对可视化操作系统进行了优化,实现了在高端计算机系统上亿网格点的反演计算,同时在中、低端计算机也可以实现加速。模型计算结果表明,该算法是一种高效且可靠的重力三维反演并行方法。     

基于体绘制技术的三维地震数据可视化

针对三维地震数据体显示需求,在分析直接体绘制三维可视化方法及技术的基础上,结合三维地震数据的特点,对其进行了一定地改进。并实现了三维地震数据体可视化方法和软件,经对三维地震波振幅特征透视显示,可揭示三维地震振幅强弱变化的空间分布。     

Development and parameterisation of a complex hydrogeological model based on high-resolution direct-push data

Ongoing developments in geological and hydrogeological investigation techniques, especially direct-push methods, have led to an increase in the quality, density and spatial resolution of data available from such investigations. This has created new challenges in the development of numerical models in terms of accurately and efficiently translating detailed and complex conceptual models into effective numerical models. Suitable geometrical and numerical modelling tools are essential in order to meet these challenges. This paper describes the development of a three-dimensional hydrogeological flow model for a contaminated site near Berlin, Germany, based on high-resolution geological data obtained principally using direct-push methods. The available data were first interpreted to construct a detailed GIS-based geological model, which formed the basis of the conceptual site model. The conceptual model was then translated into a geometrical model, which was used to create a finite element numerical model. An innovative geometry object-based approach enabled the complex structural details of the conceptual model to be accurately reproduced in the numerical model domain. The resulting three-dimensional steady-state unconfined flow model was successfully calibrated using external automated calibration software, whereby parameter values for groundwater recharge and hydraulic conductivity were determined.     

Development of a GIS-based model for extrapolating mesoscale groundwater recharge estimates using integrated geospatial data sets

A geographic information systems (GIS)-based model was used to derive spatially explicit estimates of recharge using the elevation-dependent chloride mass-balance (EDCMB) approach in a 14-basin area in southwestern Nevada, USA. For each of the 14 basins, a non-linear regression equation was developed relating chloride enrichment to the elevation of spring watersheds. The ratio of chloride enrichment as a function of elevation was used in a GIS framework to transform continuous precipitation data to recharge. Spatial masks that represented two definitions of the lower limits of recharge—one definition based on alluvium/non-alluvium boundaries, the other based on both alluvium/non-alluvium boundaries and an elevation threshold—were applied to each basin. Resultant recharge estimates were then summed for each basin. When compared to summaries of previous recharge estimates for the study area, the EDCMB approach produced results that were within 14 and 3% of two studies, but were significantly greater (31%) than a third. GIS proved to be a very effective tool for combining large spatial data with widely different resolutions into an integrated data set, and also proved to be an efficient mechanism for implementing robust statistical models to estimate recharge.

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Résumé Un modèle basé sur les systèmes d’informations géographiques (SIG) a été utilisé pour obtenir des estimations explicites de la recharge dans l’espace, en utilisant l’approche du bilan des chlorures en fonction de l’altitude (EDCMB en anglais) dans une zone de 14 bassins, dans le Sud-Ouest du Nevada aux Etats-Unis. Pour chacun des 14 bassins, une régression non-linéaire a été établie, reliant l’enrichissement des chlorures à l’altitude des bassins d’alimentation des sources. Le rapport d’enrichissement des chlorures en fonction de l’altitude a été utilisé dans une approche SIG pour transformer des données pluviométriques continues en terme de recharge. Des masques spatiaux représentant deux définitions des limites de recharge les plus basses ont été appliquées à chaque bassin ; l’une basée sur les limites alluvions/autres formations, l’autre sur ces mêmes limites ainsi que sur un seuil altitudinal. Les recharges estimées résultantes ont ensuite été additionnées pour chaque bassin. Comparée aux précédents bilans de recharge estimés dans la zone d’étude, l’approche EDCMB conduit à des résultats se situant entre 14 et 3% de ceux de deux autres études et largement supérieurs (31%) à ceux d’une troisième étude. Le SIG s’est révélé être un outil très efficace pour combiner dans une base de données intégrée, des données spatiales étendues avec des résolutions largement différentes, ainsi que pour implémenter des modèles statistiques conséquents permettant d’estimer la recharge.

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Resumen Se utilizó un modelo basado en un Sistema de Información Geográfico (SIG) para derivar espacialmente estimados explícitos de recarga usando el enfoque de balance de masa de cloruro dependiente de elevación (EDCMB) en un área de 14 cuencas en el suroeste de Nevada, Estados Unidos. Para cada una de las 14 cuencas se desarrolló una ecuación de regresión no linear que relaciona el enriquecimiento de cloruro con la elevación de las cuencas con manantiales. La relación de enriquecimiento de cloruro en función de la elevación se usó en un marco SIG para transformar datos continuos de precipitación a recarga. Se aplicaron máscaras espaciales a cada cuenca las cuales representaron dos definiciones de los límites inferiores de recarga, una definición basada en límites de aluvión/sin aluvión, el otro basado en ambos límites aluvión/sin aluvión y una elevación normal de fondo. Los estimados resultantes de recarga fueron sumados para cada cuenca. Al compararse con estimados de recarga previos para el área de estudio se encontró que el enfoque EDCMB produjo resultados que estaban entre el 14 y 3% de dos estudios pero fueron significativamente mayores (31%) que un tercer estudio. El SIG ha demostrado ser una herramienta muy efectiva para combinar datos espaciales grandes con resoluciones muy distintas en un grupo integrado de datos y también ha mostrado ser un mecanismo eficiente para implementar modelos estadísticos robustos para estimar recarga.

     

基于数字图像像素单元建立准三维FLAC3D模型

在实际应用中,即使是建立较为简单的不规则准三维模型,FLAC3D也存在一定难度,因此,提出了一种快速建立FLAC3D准三维模型的方法,即基于数字图像像素单元的位置属性建立FLAC3D准三维模型,并根据像素单元的颜色属性对所建立模型进行分组,以便实现对模型单元赋予不同属性材料或者建立不同功能模块（如开挖、回填）。借助上述思想,采用Visual Basic语言编写了IMAGE-FLAC3D接口程序,实现了FLAC3D软件建模的直观、快速和自动化。通过建立土石混合体有限差分模型和库岸滑坡有限差分模型,检验了该方法及程序的有效性和可行性。在此基础上,借助强度折减法对所建立库岸滑坡模型进行稳定性分析,分析结果与极限平衡法所得结果相近,说明了所建模型的可计算性。该方法可作为数字图像服务于岩土工程的典型范例。     

Stepwise inversion of a groundwater flow model with multi-scale observation data

Based on the regional hydrogeology and the stratigraphy beneath the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) site, New Mexico (USA), a site-scale groundwater model has been built with more than 20 stratified hydrofacies. A stepwise inverse method was developed to estimate permeabilities for these hydrofacies by coupling observation data from different sources and at various spatial scales including single-well test, multiple-well pumping test and regional aquifer monitoring data. Statistical analyses of outcrop permeability measurements and single-well test results were used to define the prior distributions of the parameters. These distributions were used to define the parameter initial values and the lower and upper bounds for inverse modeling. A number of inverse modeling steps were performed including the use of drawdown data from the pump tests at two wells (PM-2 and PM-4) separately, and a joint inversion coupling PM-2 and PM-4 pump test data and head data from regional aquifer monitoring. Parameter sensitivity coefficients for different data sets were computed to analyze if the model parameters can be estimated accurately with the data provided at different steps. The joint inversion offers a reasonable fit to all data sets. The uncertainty of estimated parameters for the hydrofacies is addressed with the parameter confidence intervals.