Some aspects of a global thermospheric density model deduced from the analysis of the orbit of Intercosmos 13 rocket (1975-22B)

An empirical density formula is explored as a practical model for atmospheric variations and satellite drag analyses. Expanding neutral air density as a series of spherical harmonics and normalizing to a fixed height, an analytical expression for the rate of change of the mean motion is developed for an oblate atmosphere with density scale height varying linearly with altitude. A subset of the coefficients in the density expansion is determined by least-squares adjustment to the observed orbital decay rate of Intercosmos 13 rocket (1975-22B) for the period May 1975–December 1979. Comparisons against four thermospheric models are undertaken for the solar activity effect and the diurnal and semi-annual variations. Given the even spread of data and the increase in solar activity from low to moderate, the air density variation with solar activity is particularly well determined. The results support the “J77” model revealing a greater increase in density with the daily solar index than either the “MSIS” or “DTM” thermospheric models near the solar minimum. Analyses of the diurnal and semi-annual variations are less exact.     

DTM94大气模型及其应用

简述了ＤＴＭ９４ 大气模型, 并以其旧版本ＤＴＭ７８ 为对照进行了初步考察和分析, 其中给出了两种模型的大气密度随地磁指数ｋｐ 和太阳辐射流量（Ｓｏｌａｒ Ｒａｄｉｏ Ｆｌｕｘ） 变化的情况, 并对２０ｄ （ 天） 弧长Ａｊｉｓａｉ 卫星的全球ＳＬＲ观测资料进行处理, 结果表明ＤＴＮ９４ 对近地卫星Ａｊｉｓａｉ 的精密定轨是十分有利的。     

Mass density of the upper atmosphere derived from Starlette’s Precise Orbit Determination with Satellite Laser Ranging

The atmospheric mass density of the upper atmosphere from the spherical Starlette satellite’s Precise Orbit Determination is first derived with Satellite Laser Ranging measurements at 815 to 1115 km during strong solar and geomagnetic activities. Starlette’s orbit is determined using the improved orbit determination techniques combining optimum parameters with a precise empirical drag application to a gravity field. MSIS-86 and NRLMSISE-00 atmospheric density models are compared with the Starlette drag-derived atmospheric density of the upper atmosphere. It is found that the variation in the Starlette’s drag coefficient above 800 km corresponds well with the level of geomagnetic activity. This represents that the satellite orbit is mainly perturbed by the Joule heating from geomagnetic activity at the upper atmosphere. This result concludes that MSIS empirical models strongly underestimate the mass density of the upper atmosphere as compared to the Starlette drag-derived atmospheric density during the geomagnetic storms. We suggest that the atmospheric density models should be analyzed with higher altitude acceleration data for a better understanding of long-term solar and geomagnetic effects.     

Fabry-Perot determinations of midlatitude F-region neutral winds and temperatures from 1975 to 1979

Fabry-Perot interferometer measurements of the Doppler shifts and widths of the nightglow 630.0 nm line at Laurel Ridge Observatory, Pennsylvania are presented for the period 1975 to 1979, covering both solar minimum and solar maximum conditions. The F-region neutral wind vectors v_n and temperatures T_n deduced from these measurements show both day-to-day changes and overall seasonal patterns in the nocturnal variations during geomagnetically quiet conditions. Divergence in both the meridional and zonal horizontal flow is noted on occasion. The v_n results are compared with models including only solar EUV heating and those with EUV plus a high latitude heat source. The aggregate v_n data for solar cycle minimum conditions agree best with model predictions for winter zonal and equinoctal meridional winds and worst for winter meridional and summer zonal winds. At solar cycle maximum the predicted, rapid transition at equinox from summer to winter wind patterns and vice-versa is observed. The T_n data are in reasonable agreement with the MSIS model predictions.     

Atmospheric densities derived from CHAMP/STAR accelerometer observations

The satellite CHAMP carries the accelerometer STAR in its payload and thanks to the GPS and SLR tracking systems accurate orbit positions can be computed. Total atmospheric density values can be retrieved from the STAR measurements, with an absolute uncertainty of 10-15%, under the condition that an accurate radiative force model, satellite macro-model, and STAR instrumental calibration parameters are applied, and that the upper-atmosphere winds are less than . The STAR calibration parameters (i.e. a bias and a scale factor) of the tangential acceleration were accurately determined using an iterative method, which required the estimation of the gravity field coefficients in several iterations, the first result of which was the EIGEN-1S (Geophys. Res. Lett. 29 (14) (2002) 10.1029) gravity field solution. The procedure to derive atmospheric density values is as follows: (1) a reduced-dynamic CHAMP orbit is computed, the positions of which are used as pseudo-observations, for reference purposes; (2) a dynamic CHAMP orbit is fitted to the pseudo-observations using calibrated STAR measurements, which are saved in a data file containing all necessary information to derive density values; (3) the data file is used to compute density values at each orbit integration step, for which accurate terrestrial coordinates are available. This procedure was applied to 415 days of data over a total period of 21 months, yielding 1.2 million useful observations. The model predictions of DTM-2000 (EGS XXV General Assembly, Nice, France), DTM-94 (J. Geod. 72 (1998) 161) and MSIS-86 (J. Geophys. Res. 92 (1987) 4649) were evaluated by analysing the density ratios (i.e. “observed” to “computed” ratio) globally, and as functions of solar activity, geographical position and season. The global mean of the density ratios showed that the models underestimate density by 10-20%, with an rms of 16-20%. The binning as a function of local time revealed that the diurnal and semi-diurnal components are too strong in the DTM models, while all three models model the latitudinal gradient inaccurately. Using DTM-2000 as a priori, certain model coefficients were re-estimated using the STAR-derived densities, yielding the DTM-STAR test model. The mean and rms of the global density ratios of this preliminary model are 1.00 and 15%, respectively, while the tidal and latitudinal modelling errors become small. This test model is only representative of high solar activity conditions, while the seasonal effect is probably not estimated accurately due to correlation with the solar activity effect. At least one more year of data is required to separate the seasonal effect from the solar activity effect, and data taken under low solar activity conditions must also be assimilated to construct a model representative under all circumstances.     

Atmospheric density from the low altitude satellite 1970-48A: Comparison of orbital decay measurements,accelerometer measurements and atmospheric models

Atmospheric densities have been deduced from high resolution radar-determined orbital decay data and from data obtained from a uniaxial accelerometer flown onboard the low altitude satellite 1970-48A. Data were obtained during late June and early July, 1970. The orbital decay-deduced densities, having an effective 6 hr temporal resolution, were determined at an altitude of 143 km, essentially one-half scale height above perigee. The accelerometer deduced densities at the same altitude were obtained on both the approaching-perigee and leaving-perigee portions of each of fifty-nine orbits. A detailed comparison of the densities derived from both types of data is presented. In general, agreement is very good. A comparison of both types of data has also been made with the Jacchia 1970 and 1971 atmospheric models as well as the new OGO-6 atmospheric model. The Jacchia models display reasonable agreement with the data, but the OGO-6 model is unsuitable as a representation of atmospheric density at this altitude.     

Atmospheric density at 169 km from accelerometer measurements and orbital decay of a low altitude satellite

Atmospheric densities at 169 km have been obtained for the period 19 August–3 September 1970 from the measurements of an accelerometer on a low altitude satellite and from the orbital decay of the same satellite. Three different sets of local time and latitude conditions were provided by the data; two from the accelerometer measurements, before and after perigee, and one at perigee, from the orbital decay data. Under the generally quiet magnetic activity conditions that prevailed during the data-taking period, the short term density fluctuations were found to be poorly correlated with the small K_p variations. However, on the greater time scale of a day, a definite relationship was found between the daily average density and the daily geomagnetic index A_p. Further, the increase in the density corresponding to A_p was largest at the highest latitude. The high latitude accelerometer data exhibited a quasi-daily periodicity, with maximum densities occurring when the satellite was within the dayside cusp. This effect also appeared to depend on the degree of auroral electrojet activity as defined by the AE index. Comparisons of the data with the Jacchia?70 and ?71 models indicated that these models may give density values which are too small for the conditions and time period corresponding to the data.     

Two-Station Interplanetary Scintillation Measurements of Solar Wind Speed near the Sun Using the X-band Radio Signal of the Nozomi Spacecraft

Interplanetary scintillation (IPS) measurements of the solar wind speed for the distance range between 13 and 37 R _S were carried out during the solar conjunction of the Nozomi spacecraft in 2000?–?2001 using the X-band radio signal. Two large-aperture antennas were employed in this study, and the baseline between the two antennas was several times longer than the Fresnel scale for the X-band. We successfully detected a positive correlation of IPS from the cross-correlation analysis of received signal data during ingress, and estimated the solar wind speed from the time lag corresponding to the maximum correlation by assuming that the solar wind flows radially. The speed estimates range between 200 and 540?km?s^?1 with the majority below 400?km?s^?1. We examined the radial variation in the solar wind speed along the same streamline by comparing the Nozomi data with data obtained at larger distances. Here, we used solar wind speed data taken from 327 MHz IPS observations of the Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory (STEL), Nagoya University, and in?situ measurements by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) for the comparison, and we considered the effect of the line-of-sight integration inherent to IPS observations for the comparison. As a result, Nozomi speed data were proven to belong to the slow component of the solar wind. Speed estimates within 30 R _S were found to be systematically slower by 10?–?15 % than the terminal speeds, suggesting that the slow solar wind is accelerated between 13 and 30 R _S.     

Mars high resolution gravity fields from MRO, Mars seasonal gravity, and other dynamical parameters

With 2 years of tracking data collection from the MRO spacecraft, there is noticeable improvement in the high frequency portion of the spherical harmonic Mars gravity field. The new JPL Mars gravity fields, MRO110B and MRO110B2, show resolution near degree 90. Additional years of MGS and Mars Odyssey tracking data result in improvement for the seasonal gravity changes which compares well to global circulation models and Odyssey neutron data and Mars rotation and precession (). Once atmospheric dust is accounted for in the spacecraft solar pressure model, solutions for Mars solar tide are consistent between data sets and show slightly larger values (k₂ = 0.164 ± 0.009, after correction for atmospheric tide) compared to previous results, further constraining core models. An additional 4 years of Mars range data improves the Mars ephemeris, determines 21 asteroid masses and bounds solar mass loss (dGM_Sun/dt < 1.6 × 10⁻¹³ GM_Sun year⁻¹).     

A model of thermospheric temperature and composition

An empirical model of thermospheric temperature (T_∞T₁₂₀, and s) and composition (H, He, N, O, N₂, O₂, and Ar) was derived from measurements of 8 satellites (AE-C, AE-E, AEROS-A, AEROS-B, ARIEL-3, ESRO-4, OGO-6, and SAN MARCO-3) and 4 incoherent scatter stations (Arecibo, Jicamarca, Millstone Hill, and St Santin). The altitude covered extends from 120 km up to about 600 km over the time period 1967 to 1976. The analytical framework used in the model resembles closely the MSIS setup: time independent terms, solar flux terms, geomagnetic activity (K_p) effect, annual (semiannual) and diurnal (semidiurnal, terdiurnal) variations, longitudinal terms, the U.T. effect, and corrections compensating for deviations from diffusive equilibrium at altitudes below 200 km. The model describes quiet to medium disturbed geomagnetic conditions (K_p ? 4) at solar fluxes (10.7cm) ranging from 60 to 180 × 10^?22 Wm^?2Hz^?1. To get an impression of the accuracy presently obtained, the model is compared with MSIS, Jacchia (1977), and the models of Thuillier (T_∞ and Engebretson (N). The best agreement is found for the temperature and the constituents He, O, and N₂ with increasing deviations in the order of H, N, Ar, and O₂.     

Estimation of secular density variations in the upper atmosphere from 1964–2007 satellite drag data

Orbital parameters of several artificial satellites of the Earth were analyzed for 1964–2007 and secular variations of the atmospheric density were estimated for the last 30–40 years. The analysis was based on the information about orbital parameters of 17 satellites and high-precision numerical integrations of the equations of motion with allowance for basic perturbing factors and spatiotemporal density variations, calculated from measured solar activity indices using the NRLMSISE-00 atmosphere model. The results demonstrate the presence of long-term variations in the atmospheric density not presented in modern atmosphere models. During solar-activity cycle 21, the atmospheric density became 0.4 to 19% higher (depending on height) than in cycle 20. It decreased by 1.0 to 11% (depending on height) in cycle 22 as compared to cycle 21. Both decreases and increases were observed in the atmospheric density during cycle 23, but with much smaller gradients. The results cannot be explained only by the growing concentration of greenhouse gases. Possible causes of the density variations and possible ways to take them into account in modern empirical and semiempirical atmospheric models are discussed.     

The statistical analyses of flares detected in B band photometry of UV Ceti type stars

In this study, we present the unpublished flare data collected from 222 flares detected in the B band observations of five stars and the results derived by statistical analysis and modeling of these data. Six basic properties have been found with a statistical analysis method applied to all models and analyses for the flares detected in the B band observation of UV Ceti type stars. We have also compared the U and B bands with the analysis results. This comparison allowed us to evaluate the methods used in the analyses. The analyses provided the following results. (1) The flares were separated into two types, fast and slow flares. (2) The mean values of the equivalent durations of the slow and the fast flares differ by a factor of 16.2 ± 3.7. (3) Regardless of the total flare duration, the maximum flare energy can reach a different Plateau level for each star. (4) The Plateau values of EV Lac and EQ Peg are higher than the others. (5) The minimum values of the total flare duration increase toward the later spectral types. This value is called the Half-Life value in models. (6) Both the maximum flare rise times and the total flare duration obtained from the observed flares decrease toward the later spectral types.     

Effects of errors in the solar radius on helioseismic inferences

Frequencies of intermediate-degree f modes of the Sun seem to indicate that the solar radius is smaller than what is normally used in constructing solar models. We investigate the possible consequences of an error in radius on results for solar structure obtained using helioseismic inversions. It is shown that solar sound speed will be overestimated if oscillation frequencies are inverted using reference models with a larger radius. Using solar models with a radius of 695.78 Mm and new data sets, the base of the solar convection zone is estimated to be at a radial distance of 0.7135 ± 0.0005 of the solar radius. The helium abundance in the convection zone as determined using models with an OPAL equation of state is 0.248 ± 0.001, where the errors reflect the estimated systematic errors in the calculation, the statistical errors being much smaller. Assuming that the OPAL opacities used in the construction of the solar models are correct, the surface Z / X is estimated to be 0.0245 ± 0.0006.     

3D Solar Null Point Reconnection MHD Simulations

Numerical MHD simulations of 3D reconnection events in the solar corona have improved enormously over the last few years, not only in resolution, but also in their complexity, enabling more and more realistic modeling. Various ways to obtain the initial magnetic field, different forms of solar atmospheric models as well as diverse driving speeds and patterns have been employed. This study considers differences between simulations with stratified and non-stratified solar atmospheres, addresses the influence of the driving speed on the plasma flow and energetics, and provides quantitative formulas for mapping electric fields and dissipation levels obtained in numerical simulations to the corresponding solar quantities. The simulations start out from a potential magnetic field containing a null-point, obtained from a Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) magnetogram magnetogram extrapolation approximately 8?hours before a C-class flare was observed. The magnetic field is stressed with a boundary motion pattern similar to?–?although simpler than?–?horizontal motions observed by SOHO during the period preceding the flare. The general behavior is nearly independent of the driving speed, and is also very similar in stratified and non-stratified models, provided only that the boundary motions are slow enough. The boundary motions cause a build-up of current sheets, mainly in the fan-plane of the magnetic null-point, but do not result in a flare-like energy release. The additional free energy required for the flare could have been partly present in non-potential form at the initial state, with subsequent additions from magnetic flux emergence or from components of the boundary motion that were not represented by the idealized driving pattern.     

A Study of the Periodic Variations of Solar Magnetic Fields During Maxima and Minima of Solar Activity

By using the solar magnetic ?eld data of Wilcox Observatory from 1975 to 2010, the short-time periodicities of solar mean magnetic ?elds during solar maximum and minimum years are analyzed. The results reveal that the solar magnetic ?elds mainly exhibit the approximate periods of 9 d, 13 d, and 27 d. During maximal solar activity the period about 27 d is most conspicuous, while during minimal solar activity the most evident period is approximately 13.5 d (except the solar minimum in the years 1984-1986). These results imply that solar active regions exhibit evidently different distributions in the periods of maxima and minima of solar activity.     

Measurements of thermospheric temperatures at a mid-latitude station

Fabry-Perot interferometer measurements of the nightglow 630.0 nm line have been made at Beveridge(37°28′S, 145°6′E) from December 1980 to September 1981.Thermospheric temperatures have been derived from these measurements and compared to the MSIS model. Good agreement is found except during summer when the experimental temperatures are consistently higher (～ 100 K) than the model values. The experimental values are well described by a function similar to that used by Hernandez (1982b) to describe 7 years of data obtained at Fritz Peak which is at a similar mid-latitude to Beveridge. The fit to the Beveridge data indicates larger seasonal and magnetic variations in the temperature than given by the MSIS model.     

Long-Term Sunspot Number Prediction based on EMD Analysis and AR Model

The Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Auto-Regressive model (AR) are applied to a long-term prediction of sunspot numbers. With the sample data of sunspot numbers from 1848 to 1992, the method is evaluated by examining the measured data of the solar cycle 23 with the prediction: different time scale components are obtained by the EMD method and multi-step predicted values are combined to reconstruct the sunspot number time series. The result is remarkably good in comparison to the predictions made by the solar dynamo and precursor approaches for cycle 23. Sunspot numbers of the coming solar cycle 24 are obtained with the data from 1848 to 2007, the maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle is predicted to be about 112 in 2011-2012.     

Can We Constrain Solar Interior Physics by Studying the Gravity-Mode Asymptotic Signature?

Gravity modes are the best probes to infer the properties of the solar radiative zone, which represents 98% of the Sun’s total mass. It is usually assumed that high-frequency g modes give information about the structure of the solar interior whereas low-frequency g modes are more sensitive to the solar dynamics (the internal rotation). In this work, we develop a new methodology, based on the analysis of the almost constant separation of the dipole gravity modes, to introduce new constraints on the solar models. To validate this analysis procedure, several solar models – including different physical processes and either old or new chemical abundances (from, respectively, Grevesse and Noels (Origin and Evolution of the Elements 199, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 15, 1993) and Asplund, Grevesse, and Sauval (Cosmic Abundances as Records of Stellar Evolution and Nucleosynthesis CS-336, Astron. Soc. Pac., San Francisco, 25?–?38, 2005)) – have been compared to another model used as a reference. The analysis clearly shows that this methodology has enough sensitivity to distinguish among some of the models, in particular, among those with different compositions. The comparison of the models with the g-mode asymptotic signature detected in GOLF data favors the ones with old abundances. Therefore, the physics of the core – obtained through the analysis of the g-mode properties – is in agreement with the results obtained in the previous studies based on the acoustic modes, which are mostly sensitive to more external layers of the Sun.     

Solar Cycle Variation of the Interplanetary Forward Shock Drivers Observed at 1 AU

Forecasting space weather more accurately from solar observations requires an understanding of the variations in physical properties of interplanetary (IP) shocks as solar activity changes. We examined the characteristics (occurrence rate, physical parameters, and types of shock driver) of IP shocks. During the period of 1995 – 2001, a total of 249 forward IP shocks were observed. In calculating the shock parameters, we used the solar wind data from Wind at the solar minimum period (1995 – 1997) and from ACE since 1998 including the solar maximum period (1999 – 2001). Most of IP shocks (68%) are concentrated in the solar maximum period. The values of physical quantities of IP shocks, such as the shock speed, the sonic Mach number, and the ratio of plasma density compression, are larger at solar maximum than at solar minimum. However, the ratio of IMF compression is larger at solar minimum. The IP shock drivers are classified into four groups: magnetic clouds (MCs), ejecta, high speed streams (HSSs), and unidentified drivers. The MC is the most dominant and strong shock driver and 150 out of total 249 IP shocks are driven by MCs. The MC is a principal and very effective shock driver not only at solar maximum but also at solar minimum, in contrast to results from previous studies, where the HSS is considered as the dominant IP shock driver.     

Determination of refraction anomalies by global inclinations of airstratas of identical density

This paper presents formulas for the calculation of the refraction anomalies caused by the inclination of atmospheric boundary layers. Anomalies were calculated for a few zenith distances for several different atmospheric models. It was established, that near Earth the atmospheric boundary layers have the global inclination in meridian plane near one minute of arc from North to South. They are calculated with standard deviation ±0.2′–±0.35′. The tilts are decreased gradually with the altitude and equal nearly 0 on the heights 8–10 km. Then direction of inclination is changed on opposite (from South to North) and maximum 1′ reaches on the heights 15–18 km. Next inclinations slowly decrease and equal 0 on the heights 28–30 km. (© 2005 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)