Internal Migration in Decline

Internal migration rates in the United States have been steadily declining for at least twenty-five years: In 1984, 6.4 percent of the population moved between counties but by 2006—well before the most significant economic crisis since the Great Depression—annual intercounty migration rates had already declined to 4.7 percent and by 2010 to 3.5 percent. Despite the implications of the migration decline, it is poorly recognized and understood. The analysis shows that over the last thirty years, three broad trends have combined to pull migration rates dramatically lower: an increase in dual-worker couples, increased household indebtedness, and the widespread rise of information and communication technologies (ICTs). The first two are probably linked, as households have responded to decreasing real income over the last quarter-century through greater female labor force participation and maintaining current levels of consumption by borrowing ever more heavily from the equity in their homes. Thus, although this analysis shows that the decline in migration rates is not directly linked to the Great Recession, the migration decline is surely linked to the broader macroeconomic shifts that gave rise to it. With respect to the role of ICTs, it is not surprising that as ICTs have transformed nearly everything else across society, their use has affected migration rates. It is presumed that ICTs are providing new forms of mobility that are substituting for migration.     

Migration patterns in India

"The chief objective of the present paper is to comprehend the broad spatial patterns of internal migrations in India." Aspects considered include data constraints, the magnitude of internal migration, interstate migration, migration to rural and to urban destinations, spatial patterns, and areas of origin and destination.     

新型城镇化背景下流动特征与农民工回流意愿的关系

使用2016年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,借助描述性分析和多分类Logistic回归模型分析方法,探讨新型城镇化背景下农民工回流意愿的现状与特点、流动特征与回流意愿的关系。研究发现,农民工的回流意愿很弱,有回流意愿并打算近期回流的农民工比例较低,回流地域以原居地为主、户籍地的乡镇和区县政府所在地为辅。模型结果显示,流动特征显著影响农民工的回流意愿：跨省流动者“打算回流”的概率大于省内流动者;流动时间短和非举家流动者“打算回流”“近期回流”“回原居地”的概率分别大于流动时间长和举家流动者;有留守子女者“打算回流”“近期回流”的概率大于没有留守子女者。最后,建议政府实施以“异地市民化”为主、“回流式市民化”为辅的市民化策略;继续深化制度改革,为农民工流动扫清制度壁垒和提供均等化公共服务;促进中西部和东北部地区的经济社会发展,出台鼓励农民工回乡创业和就业的优惠政策等方式来推进以农民工市民化为重点的新型城镇化发展。     

Methodological Issues in Researching Migration

Population geographers should consider a mixed methods approach to thestudy of migration. This methodological position arises in response to the challenges of contemporary social theory. It is argued that application of structuration theory favours use of a diversity of methods to investigate the recursive relationship between agency and structure. Similarly a realist stance, as advocated by Sayer (1992), leads to a mixing of methods in order to carry out the synthesising tasks expected of geographers. Postmodernism, when interpreted as method, also points the researcher to consider adopting flexible research practices in order to capture the multiplicities of meaning associated with migration and place. These points are illustrated by a case study of migration to and from Hong Kong.     

Methodological Issues in Researching Migration

Population geographers should consider a mixed methods approach to thestudy of migration. This methodological position arises in response to the challenges of contemporary social theory. It is argued that application of structuration theory favours use of a diversity of methods to investigate the recursive relationship between agency and structure. Similarly a realist stance, as advocated by Sayer (1992), leads to a mixing of methods in order to carry out the synthesising tasks expected of geographers. Postmodernism, when interpreted as method, also points the researcher to consider adopting flexible research practices in order to capture the multiplicities of meaning associated with migration and place. These points are illustrated by a case study of migration to and from Hong Kong.     

中国城市人口迁移和创新

创新是城市发展的动力之一。城市创新受多种因素影响,人口是影响城市创新的重要因素,人口迁移的数量和质量会对创新产生深刻的影响。以专利指标测度创新,基于中国34个主要城市人口2003—2012年的人口迁入、迁出数据,使用stata面板模型,分析中国人口迁移对城市创新的影响。结果显示:人口迁移对城市创新有重要的影响,主要表现在省外迁入人口、省内迁出人口以及高学历和多样化人口迁移对城市创新有积极作用,其他人口迁移因素对城市创新影响则不显著,人口迁移对城市创新的影响具有区域性的差异。研究的政策意义表明:中国需要鼓励高层次的人口迁移,以发挥创新的溢出效应,提升城市的创新能力。     

中国1995-2000年省间人口迁移模拟与迁移因素对迁移规模贡献的分解

尝试用泊松模拟方法建立人口迁移模型,并且与传统人口迁移模型的结果进行比较,说明泊松人口迁移模型的优点.本研究使用一种新的人口迁移因素分解方法,在人口迁移模型的基础上,估计空间因素、迁入地和迁出地因素的空间结构、迁入地迁出地因素本身对人口迁移规模的贡献.本研究使用的实例数据是中国2000年人口普查得到的1995-2000年省间人口迁移数据.     

企业迁移研究进展

企业迁移研究对区域经济统筹发展、区域政策的制定具有重要的指导意义．本研究通过梳理国内外相关文献,从企业迁移的类型、三大基础理论学派的对比和国内外在实证研究的研究内容和方法上的差异等3个方面对企业迁移研究进行了较为系统的回顾与总结,并提出未来研究的展望,指出企业迁移的内部因素、企业迁移与区域经济发展的关系、企业迁移的绩效研究等应成为未来研究的重点领域．     

西方人口迁移研究进展

人口迁移研究在西方人文地理学研究体系中一直占据重要地位。通过对西方人口迁移研究的系统梳理．将研究重点概括为6点：人口迁移机制、人口迁移途径、人口迁移模型、人口迁移过程中的文化适应、国际移民研究和国内人口迁移研究。最后,归纳了西方人口迁移研究中重要的方法论。     

中国省际人口迁移短期预测分析

人口迁移是一个时空路径依赖过程,同时受迁移存量和周边迁移状况影响。当前人口迁移预测大多建立在时间序列模型之上,重点考虑迁移流在时间维度上的联系,忽视了其中的时空关联。该文将特征向量时空滤波方法与普通泊松模型相结合,考虑迁移流中可能存在的时空滞后和同期两种结构,对1985-2015年不同时段的中国省际人口迁移流数据进行建模和估计,并利用拟合程度较优的模型预测2015-2025年省际人口迁移的发展趋势。结果表明:1)特征向量时空滞后和同期滤波泊松模型均能较好地模拟研究时段省际人口迁移过程,自1985年以来我国省际人口迁移流不仅受迁出地和迁入地经济、社会等因素影响,也与过去迁移存量及周边迁移流密切相关;2)区域人口规模和GDP对迁移流的“推—拉”作用符合预期,地区人口规模较高和经济发展水平较低会促进人口外迁,反之则有利于吸引外来人口;3)与特征向量时空滞后滤波泊松模型相比,时空同期模型更便于捕捉省际人口迁移过程中的时空路径依赖特性,意味着当前人口迁移流的发展更易受到同时期周边迁移流的影响,表现出明显的羊群效应;4)预计2015-2025年我国省际迁移总量持续增加,呈现更集聚的空间模式,高迁入与高迁出区域在空间上相连,形成一条南北贯通的“高密度迁移地带”。将特征向量时空滤波模型拓展到人口迁移这一空间相互作用领域,可为当前构建更加完善的要素市场化配置体制机制等提供科学参考。     

中国近期农村人口迁移态势研究

采用第四次、第五次人口普查所获得的人口迁移数据,分析了中国农村人口迁移在全国总迁移人口中的地位变化的省际总体特征和个体特征,探讨了各省级单元农村人口迁移在总人口迁移中的地位在20世纪80年代和90年代随时间变化的原因。进一步重点研究了中国农村人口迁移的时空分布格局,分别从省际、省内两个空间尺度,分迁入、迁出两个角度对中国农村人口迁移的规模和流向态势进行了深入分析。     

非洲的移民汇款及其对国家发展的作用

近几十年,全球汇款流在稳步增长并越来越成为发展中国家财政发展的重要源泉。汇款成为家庭收入中稳定的一部分,并组成了发展中国家第二大资金流——处于外国直接投资（FDI）之后,海外开发援助（ODA）之前。在撒哈拉以南非洲地区,流动工人的汇款成为财政发展以及救助穷人的财政服务的重要主题。本论文分析撒哈拉以南非洲地区迁移人口的汇款及其作用,并以马里作为重点研究对象。研究结论是,汇款在国家收入中占有重要比例,并将继续对个人家庭和社区提供重要支持,应该鼓励当地引导汇款促进基础设施发展和收入产生。     

The Place of Narrative in the Study of Third World Migration: The Case of Spontaneous Rural Migration in Sri Lanka*

Studies of migration in geography have most often been based on quantitative research approaches. Such studies cannot adequately shed light on the contextuality of migration and the individual decision-making processes involved. Personal narratives express individual experiences within a social context. The story of “Amma,” a female rural migrant in Sri Lanka, shows the role of women in migration, the importance of family ties, the contextual causes of migration, and characteristics of the migration flow per se. Personal narratives have an underutilized potential of capturing the variety of migrants' experiences and the complexity of the decision to migrate.     

全球化背景下的日本移民动态研究

本文以日本外务省的移民统计数据为基础,对1990年代以来日本海外移民在世界和中国的分布及其结构变化情况进行了分析。探讨了日本移民的数量变化、人口结构、迁移类型、迁移方式、地区分布及其变化趋势,并考察了其在中国的分布及构成特点。日本移民主要流向北美、亚洲太平洋地区,尤以洛杉矶、纽约、上海、曼谷等城市分布最为集中。在中国的日本移民近年增长迅速,主要分布在上海、北京、香港、广州、深圳等大城市,并以男性移民为主。本文分析了这些日本移民的分布动向,并对今后中国大城市的移民问题进行了讨论。