Sequential design strategy for kriging and cokriging-based machine learning in the context of reservoir history-matching

Computational Geosciences - Numerical models representing geological reservoirs can be used to forecast production and help engineers to design optimal development plans. These models should be as...     

3D subsidence analyses above gas reservoirs accounting for an unconventional plasticity model

The coupled hydro‐mechanical state in soils coming from consolidation/subsidence processes and undergoing plasticity phenomena is here evaluated by means of the subloading surface model. The most important feature of this theory is the abolition of the distinction between the elastic and plastic domains, as it happens in the conventional elastoplastic models. This means that plastic deformations are generated whenever there is a change in stress and a smoother elastoplastic transition is produced. The plasticity algorithm has been implemented in the PLASCON3D FE code, coupling hydro‐thermo‐mechanical fields within a saturated (locally partially saturated) porous medium subjected to external loads and water/gas withdrawals from deep layers (aquifers/reservoirs). The 3D model has been first calibrated and validated against examples taken from the literature, and then subsidence analyses at regional scales due to gas extractions have been developed to predict the evolution of settlements and pore pressure in soils for long‐term scenarios. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

岩性油气藏地震保幅处理技术及其应用--以东部某油田岩性气藏为例

地震数据保幅性处理是一项复杂的系统工程。笔者分析了实际地震数据处理流程中各个关节点模块的保幅性,重点评价了反褶积和振幅补偿的保幅性,并论述了俞氏子波统计反褶积比预测反褶积有更好的保幅性,而剩余振幅补偿需要用叠前弹性阻抗或者叠后反演结果来检验其保幅性。根据上述的保幅性分析结论,对目标区进行了保幅性的地震数据处理,运用叠前弹性参数反演的方法预测了该区的含油气性,其预测的结果与钻井结果相符合,说明了该文采用的保幅处理流程和方法能够提供一套保幅性比较可靠的基础数据。     

煤系非常规天然气一体化压裂液体系研究与应用

为了解决目前煤系非常规天然气压裂液体系应用灵活性差、性能不可调问题,研究了一体化压裂液体系。以3种一体化稠化剂为研究对象,结合现场黏土稳定剂、助排剂和破胶剂,开展一体化压裂液体系增黏、减阻、悬砂、耐温抗剪切、破胶、添加剂配伍性、防膨和表面张力实验评价,并分析一体化压裂液现场应用效果。结果表明,一体化压裂液体系黏度灵活可调,黏度随一体化稠化剂含量增加而增大,黏度调整区间为3~200 mPa·s,高黏液体悬砂性能优异,体积分数为1.0%的一体化压裂液在60℃、100 S?1剪切条件下黏度大于100 mPa·s;一体化压裂液体系与各类添加剂配伍性良好,易破胶,减阻率、防膨率均大于70%,表面张力小于28 mN/m。其一体化主要体现在功能性和应用性两个方面,功能上集滑溜水、线性胶、交联液压裂液体系于一体,能够满足各类气层压裂改造工艺对造缝、减阻、防膨、携砂、快速返排等性能的要求;应用上在鄂尔多斯盆地东缘现场煤层气、页岩气、致密砂岩气井均取得了成功应用。一体化压裂液推动了非常规气压裂工艺试验,提高了压裂改造效果,对各类气层以及压裂改造工艺具有良好的适应性。      

储层预测技术在苏里格气田开发评价中的应用

针对苏里格气田盒8岩性气藏储层横向变化大、非均质性强、储层预测难度大的特点,利用二维地震资料,通过AVO远近道集叠加振幅分析、波阻抗反演和属性分析方法,进行盒8储层岩性及含气性综合预测。根据预测结果优选的开发评价井钻井结果良好,对低渗透砂岩储层岩性及含气性预测,能够进一步提高储层含气性预测的可靠性和开发评价井的预测成功率。     

Deterministic ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation as an alternative for history-matching seismic data

This paper reports the results of an investigation on the use of a deterministic analysis scheme combined with the method ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation (ES-MDA) for the problem of assimilating a large number of correlated data points. This is the typical case when history-matching time-lapse seismic data in petroleum reservoir models. The motivation for the use of the deterministic analysis is twofold. First, it tends to result in a smaller underestimation of the ensemble variance after data assimilation. This is particularly important for problems with a large number of measurements. Second, the deterministic analysis avoids the factorization of a large covariance matrix required in the standard implementation of ES-MDA with the perturbed observations scheme. The deterministic analysis is tested in a synthetic history-matching problem to assimilate production and seismic data.     

基于小波域的FastICA算法的非常规油气藏地震资料去噪

近年来,随着鄂尔多斯盆地苏里格气田开发规模的不断扩大,全数字三维地震得到广泛应用,数字检波器的高灵敏性使得地震资料噪声极其发育。因此,全数字三维地震资料叠前去噪是资料处理的关键。 针对全数字三维地震资料的特点, 结合盲信号分离技术的最新发展,特别是神经网络技术的最新发展应用到研究中来,建立适合于理论地震记录的盲信号分离的算法模型,对已知反射地震数据实施盲分离技术,将地震信号变换到小波域中,并用FastICA算法进行盲分离去噪,然后将去噪后的信号从小波域变换到时间域信号。试验结果表明,该方法得到的去噪效果较时间域内直接去噪效果好。     

基于小波域的FastICA算法的非常规油气藏地震资料去噪

近年来,随着鄂尔多斯盆地苏里格气田开发规模的不断扩大,全数字三维地震得到广泛应用,数字检波器的高灵敏性使得地震资料噪声极其发育。因此,全数字三维地震资料叠前去噪是资料处理的关键。针对全数字三维地震资料的特点,结合盲信号分离技术的最新发展,特别是神经网络技术的最新发展应用到研究中来,建立适合于理论地震记录的盲信号分离的算法模型,对已知反射地震数据实施盲分离技术,将地震信号变换到小波域中,并用Fast ICA算法进行盲分离去噪,然后将去噪后的信号从小波域变换到时间域信号。试验结果表明,该方法得到的去噪效果较时间域内直接去噪效果好。     

Evaluation of Gaussian approximations for data assimilation in reservoir models

The Bayesian framework is the standard approach for data assimilation in reservoir modeling. This framework involves characterizing the posterior distribution of geological parameters in terms of a given prior distribution and data from the reservoir dynamics, together with a forward model connecting the space of geological parameters to the data space. Since the posterior distribution quantifies the uncertainty in the geologic parameters of the reservoir, the characterization of the posterior is fundamental for the optimal management of reservoirs. Unfortunately, due to the large-scale highly nonlinear properties of standard reservoir models, characterizing the posterior is computationally prohibitive. Instead, more affordable ad hoc techniques, based on Gaussian approximations, are often used for characterizing the posterior distribution. Evaluating the performance of those Gaussian approximations is typically conducted by assessing their ability at reproducing the truth within the confidence interval provided by the ad hoc technique under consideration. This has the disadvantage of mixing up the approximation properties of the history matching algorithm employed with the information content of the particular observations used, making it hard to evaluate the effect of the ad hoc approximations alone. In this paper, we avoid this disadvantage by comparing the ad hoc techniques with a fully resolved state-of-the-art probing of the Bayesian posterior distribution. The ad hoc techniques whose performance we assess are based on (1) linearization around the maximum a posteriori estimate, (2) randomized maximum likelihood, and (3) ensemble Kalman filter-type methods. In order to fully resolve the posterior distribution, we implement a state-of-the art Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that scales well with respect to the dimension of the parameter space, enabling us to study realistic forward models, in two space dimensions, at a high level of grid refinement. Our implementation of the MCMC method provides the gold standard against which the aforementioned Gaussian approximations are assessed. We present numerical synthetic experiments where we quantify the capability of each of the ad hoc Gaussian approximation in reproducing the mean and the variance of the posterior distribution (characterized via MCMC) associated to a data assimilation problem. Both single-phase and two-phase (oil–water) reservoir models are considered so that fundamental differences in the resulting forward operators are highlighted. The main objective of our controlled experiments was to exhibit the substantial discrepancies of the approximation properties of standard ad hoc Gaussian approximations. Numerical investigations of the type we present here will lead to the greater understanding of the cost-efficient, but ad hoc, Bayesian techniques used for data assimilation in petroleum reservoirs and hence ultimately to improved techniques with more accurate uncertainty quantification.     

煤层气系统——一种非常规含油气系统

为了更加有效地预测煤层气分布,指出煤层气有利勘探区域,引入了含油气系统来研究煤层气。煤层气系统是由煤层和其中的煤层气及煤层气藏形成所必需的一切地质要素和作用所组成的天然系统,其中的地质要素包括煤层及其顶底板,作用是煤层气的生成、储集和保存等。煤层气系统的建立和研究,为煤层气的勘探和开发提供了一种新的思维方式和研究方法,以及一套煤层气勘探研究的程序和框架。     

Multi-fidelity meta-modeling for reservoir engineering - application to history matching

Defining representative reservoir models usually calls for a huge number of fluid flow simulations, which may be very time-consuming. Meta-models are built to lessen this issue. They approximate a scalar function from the values simulated for a set of uncertain parameters. For time-dependent outputs, a reduced-basis approach can be considered. If the resulting meta-models are accurate, they can be called instead of the flow simulator. We propose here to investigate a specific approach named multi-fidelity meta-modeling to reduce further the simulation time. We assume that the outputs of interest are known at various levels of resolution: a fine reference level, and coarser levels for which computations are faster but less accurate. Multi-fidelity meta-models refer to co-kriging to approximate the outputs at the fine level using the values simulated at all levels. Such an approach can save simulation time by limiting the number of fine level simulations. The objective of this paper is to investigate the potential of multi-fidelity for reservoir engineering. The reduced-basis approach for time-dependent outputs is extended to the multi-fidelity context. Then, comparisons with the more usual kriging approach are proposed on a synthetic case, both in terms of computation time and predictivity. Meta-models are computed to evaluate the production responses at wells and the mismatch between the data and the simulated responses (history matching error), considering two levels of resolution. The results show that the multi-fidelity approach can outperform kriging if the target simulation time is small. Last, its potential is evidenced when used for history matching.     

基于叠前反演的储层预测技术在陕北黄土塬白云岩气藏的应用

近年来,陕北黄土塬地区下古生界奥陶系中组合马五5地层发现了一大批白云岩岩性气藏。但是由于黄土塬地表条件复杂,地震资料成像精度差,马五5储层分布面积广、厚度薄、非均质性强、横向变化快,地震预测难度非常大。文中针对近年在陕北苏203井区实施的600 km2三维高保真地震资料,在强化岩石物理分析和叠前反演的基础上,创新应用FFP (岩相流体概率)分析技术,结合完钻井拟合弹性参数函数关系式,计算得到工区马五5地层的白云岩概率体、含气概率体、孔隙度及含气饱和度,刻画了苏203井区马五5白云岩储层含气有利区的平面展布。评价、落实了钻探有利目标,取得了较好的效果。     

非常规油气地质理论与技术进展

当前对油气的开发从常规油气扩展到开采难度较大、开采成本较高的非常规油气。在不远的将来,将实现常规和非常规油气并举的局面。根据成因,可将非常规油气分为三大类:第一类为重油和油砂,为正常原油经过生物降解和水洗作用形成,分布广、潜力大,已被大量开采利用;第二类为致密油气、页岩油气和煤层气,主要特征是储集于孔渗条件极差储层中,属于连续型-大规模聚集油气藏,目前发展迅速,也是产量增长最快的领域;第三类为油页岩,是未成熟的干酪根与黏土和细粒无机矿物的混合物,有机质丰度高,要经过人工加热生成石油,油页岩发现很早,分布广泛,美国比例最高。由于对非常规油气的评价和勘探开发,带动了石油地质理论和勘探开发技术的不断创新。同时非常规储量规模巨大,相当于常规油气资源的2~3倍,勘探开发技术日趋完善,大大延长了石油工业的生命周期,引领石油工业跨越式发展。     

叠后地震属性识别页岩气储层裂缝研究及应用

页岩气储层具有低孔隙度、超低渗透率等特点,以游离或吸附状态赋存于泥页岩及其砂岩夹层的裂缝、孔隙、有机质中,且裂缝的发育在一定程度上决定着页岩气藏的品质和产量。储层裂缝发育的复杂性决定了裂缝识别与预测的难度,且受限于地震资料分辨率的影响。以重庆渝东南地区为例,利用三维地震勘探资料的波形相似性、倾角、方位角、曲率等信息,采用叠后三维地震属性分析技术,如相干体技术、蚂蚁自动追踪技术、最大曲率等属性综合识别与预测页岩气储层天然裂缝,并对比区域断裂特征、岩心识别、FMI测井解释的结果,认为叠后地震属性在页岩气储层裂缝识别上具有一定的优势。     

叠前同时反演技术在珠江口盆地西部海域天然气水合物储层预测中的应用

珠江口盆地西部海域发育弱BSR或无BSR的天然气水合物储层,常规叠后反演所获得的参数单一,难以精确预测其天然气水合物分布特征。本文在地震道集优化处理、精细速度分析、岩石物理分析及低频模型精确建立的基础上,针对性地采用叠前同时反演技术,对珠江口盆地西部海域天然气水合物储层进行预测,并利用岩相流体概率分析技术对其进行综合识别,实现了对天然气水合物储层地精细刻画。反演预测结果表明,研究区天然气水合物较为发育,预测结果与钻探结果吻合程度较高,应用效果良好。     

Hydraulic fracturing in unconventional gas reservoirs: risks in the geological system part 1

Hydraulic fracturing of unconventional gas reservoirs rapidly developed especially in the USA to an industrial scale during the last decade. Potential adverse effects such as the deterioration of the quality of exploitable groundwater resources, areal footprints, or even the climate impact were not assessed. Because hydraulic fracturing has already been practised for a long time also in conventional reservoirs, the expansion into the unconventional domain was considered to be just a minor but not a technological step, with potential environmental risks. Thus, safety and environmental protection regulations were not critically developed or refined. Consequently, virtually no baseline conditions were documented before on-site applications as proof of evidence for the net effect of environmental impacts. Not only growing concerns in the general public, but also in the administrations in Germany promoted the commissioning of several expert opinions, evaluating safety, potential risks, and footprints of the technology in focus. The first two publications of the workgroup “Risks in the Geological System” of the independent “Information and Dialogue process on hydraulic fracturing” (commissioned by ExxonMobil Production Deutschland GmbH) comprises the strategy and approaches to identify and assess the potential risks of groundwater contamination of the exploitable groundwater system in the context of hydraulic fracturing operations in the Münsterland cretaceous basin and the Lower Saxony Basin, Germany. While being specific with respect to local geology and the estimation of effective hydraulic parameters, generalized concepts for the contamination risk assessment were developed. The work focuses on barrier effectiveness of different units of the overburden with respect to the migration of fracking fluids and methane, and considers fault zones as potential fluid pathway structures.     

序贯模拟方法在储层建模中的应用研究

条件模拟方法是地质统计学发展的一个主要方向和研究热点。作者通过序贯模拟方法在储层建模中的应用，对模拟结果进行了参数统计和变异函数分析；并对克立格和序贯模拟方法进行了比较。应用研究的结果证明了该方法的各种特点，弥补了条件模拟方法在理论研究上的不足，为进一步的方法改进和拓宽其应用范围提供了理论依据和实例参考。     

Maximum entropy method: an unconventional approach to explore observables related to the electron density in phengites

The maximum entropy method (MEM) is used here to get an insight into the electron density [ρ(r)] of phengites 2M ₁ and 3T, paying special attention to the M1-formally empty site and charge distribution. Room temperature single crystal X-ray diffraction data have been used as experimental input for MEM. The results obtained by MEM have been compared with those from conventional structure refinement which, in turn, has provided the prior-electron density to start the entropy maximization process. MEM reveals a comparatively non-committal approach, able to produce information related to the M1-site fractional occupancy, and yields results consistent with those from the difference Fourier synthesis, but free of the uncertainties due to the abrupt truncation of the series. The charge distribution is investigated by means of the notion of ‘‘site basin’’, i.e., those site-centered volumes delimited by a surface such as ∇ρ·n = 0. In particular, we observe: (1) the overall partitioning of the basin total charge between cation and anion sites, and the interlayer site charge seems to depend on sample composition, and (2) the apical-oxygen plane total basin charge and hydroxyl basin charge are presumably related to the polytype. The MEM-determined electron density does not allow full exploration of the critical points for very complex structures as micas, insofar as conventional room temperature experimental diffraction data are used.