Groundwater-level Anomalies Associated with a Hypothetical Preslip Prior to the Anticipated Tokai Earthquake: Detectability Using the Groundwater Observation Network of the Geological Survey of Japan,AIST

We infer the groundwater-level anomalies associated with a hypothetical preslip prior to the anticipated M 8 Tokai earthquake, and evaluate the detectability of the anomalies using data from seven groundwater wells. We evaluate the detectability of the anomalies under the following assumptions: (1) an Mw 5.5–6.5 aseismic preslip event occurs at the plate boundary in and around the hypothetical focal zone of the Tokai earthquake; (2) the total amount of the strain step at each observation associated with the preslip can be calculated by tensile and shear faulting based on the dislocation model; (3) a normalized strain history associated with the preslip is defined from the results of numerical simulations based on rate- and state-dependent friction laws; and (4) the groundwater-level anomaly prior to the earthquake is proportional to the estimated history of the strain change associated with the preslip. We investigate the detection time of the anomaly at seven wells given an Mw 5.5, 6.0, or 6.5 aseismic preslip at one of the 272 grid points in and around the area of the hypothetical focal zone of the Tokai earthquake. As a result, over the time interval between 1 and 48 hours prior to the hypothetical Tokai earthquake, we are able to detect at each of the seven wells a hypothetical Mw 6.5 preslip at 10–86 of the 272 grid points, an Mw 6 preslip at 0–19 grid points, and an Mw 5.5 preslip at 0–5 grid points.     

Spatial and Temporal Changes of Groundwater Level Induced by Thrust Faulting

Changes of groundwater level, ranging from a fall of 11.10 m to a rise of 7.42 m, induced by thrust faulting during the 1999 M_w 7.6, Chi-Chi earthquake have been recorded in 276 monitoring wells in Taiwan. Most coseismic falls appeared near the seismogenic fault as well as other active faults, while coseismic rises prevailed away from the fault. Coseismic groundwater level rises and falls correlated fairly well with hypocentral distance in the vicinity of the thrust fault. We found a major difference of coseismic changes in wells of different depths at most multiple-well stations. The recovery process of coseismic groundwater level changes is associated with the confining condition of the aquifer. Cross-formational flow is likely to play an important role in groundwater level changes after the earthquake. In the hanging wall of the thrust fault, an abnormal decline of groundwater level was observed immediately before the earthquake. The underlying mechanism of the unique preseismic change warrants further investigation.     

中国大陆井水位观测网对甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震同震响应特征分析

基于全国地下流体前兆台网数据库的统计,本文了整理中国大陆井水位观测网中对甘肃岷县漳县6.6级地震水位同震响应的台站特征.分析结果是：（1）岷县漳县6.6级地震烈度Ⅵ度区的1.5倍的范围内主要由静态应变引起的水位同震变化仅有一个台站,水位同震阶升幅度仅1.5 cm,静态应变触发地震的可能性不大;（2）震中距大于1 000 km的远震响应均为水位阶升,但是其同震变化幅度小于0.3 cm,为含水层被压缩引起;（3）该地震引起的水位同震变化的观测井较少,分布范围大,整体上以水位同震阶升占据主体,其分布主要在静态应力变化引起的范围之外,并且与构造带的对应关系无规律可循,此次地震静态应变范围内的应力应该已经得到释放.     

2011-2014年康定周边地形变场变化与芦山7.0级地震及康定两次中强地震的关系研究

收集康定地震区及周边（99.6°~105.2°E,27.8°~33.0°N范围内）连续GPS观测站的资料求解站速度场,采用刚性-线弹性运动方程计算方法,拟合计算得到研究区域规格网格点（0.4°×0.4°）的速度值和主应变率值。基于该结果分析研究区内的运动特征和应变场变化情况,并讨论其与地震孕育发生的关系。分析结果表明,芦山7.0级地震发生前研究区呈现应变能量积累态势,而地震之后研究区呈应变能量释放调整态势,2014年康定地震的发生就是该区构造运动调整下的产物。     

山西洪洞井水位对远场大震的响应特征分析

对洪洞井水位自2013年数字化改造以来记录到的同震响应资料进行统计分析后认为:洪洞井水位对全球MS≥7.5的远场大震有较好的响应能力,其同震响应呈一定的方向性;对不同地震的响应形态具有固定模式,以水震波为主,部分水震波伴随阶变;水位振荡阶变的初始方向以上升为主。统计分析显示,井水位同震变化幅度与震级、井震距无明显相关性,水位响应时刻与井震距有一定关系。进一步核实表明:引起水位同震响应的地震波大多为S波,部分为P波、面波;S波引起的水位变化幅度要小于P波,而面波引发的水位变化幅度最大。综合分析了前人对水位振荡的机理研究,并结合洪洞井具体情况对其相关机理进行了初步探讨。     

Research of the Activity of Earthquakes Induced by Water Injection of Salt Mining in Changning County,Sichuan Province

According to information from on-the-spot investigations, the tectonics of salt mining areas and digital seismic records, we studied the activity of earthquakes induced by water pumping in and out of the salt mines in Shuanghe town, Changning county, Sichuan Province. The study found that the rates of water injection and extraction in the Shuanghe salt mining region were evenly matched before April 2006 and earthquake activity was stable. On the other hand, shallow small and moderate earthquake numbers increased sharply after the water injection rate became much larger than the water extraction rate. Large injection over a long time may causes the permeation of water through pre-existing small fractures and micro-cracks in the Changning anticlinal and accelerate the rupture of micro tectonic formations in nearby regions, inducing small earthquake swarm activity. The Q value calculated by using digital earthquake records indicates a relatively inhomogeneous medium in this area. The results of the accurate location of small earthquakes show that sources are relatively shallow and are concentrated at a depth of 2km to 3km. Focal mechanism solutions reveal a normal dip-slip character of shallow earthquakes. All of these show certain characteristics of earthquake activity induced by water injection.     

2006年7月4日河北文安MS5.1地震前震中周围地区小震视应力随时间的变化

2006年7月4日河北文安发生MS5.1地震,震前的2001年10月始在震区附近形成了ML≥1.5地震空区,这次地震发生在该空区边缘。本文在近震源条件下,根据Brune模式,利用北京数字遥测地震台网观测到的波形资料,测定了该空区边缘发生的20次ML≥2.0地震的地震矩和地震能量,进而计算了地震视应力,分析了空区形成过程中这些地震的视应力随时间的变化。结果表明,2004年出现了明显的视应力升高过程。这说明该空区的形成伴随着应力的增强过程,可能具有预测意义。     

甘肃礼县盐关井水位短临异常与滇北强震的关系

在分析了甘肃礼县盐关井水位20多年来的异常变化与邻近地区发生中强地震的对应关系基础上,着重就18年来井水位出现两次较大幅度的负异常与相距1000 km多的云南禄劝1985年6.1级地震和云南大姚2003年6.2级地震的对应关系进行了探讨,认为该井很可能是滇北两个震区强震的“穴位”和灵敏点。     

Analysis on the Characteristics of the Coseismic Response of Water Levels Recorded in Three Wells in Hainan,China to the Two Sumatra-Andaman Strong Earthquakes

The characteristics of seismic water level fluctuations of the two Sumatra-Andaman strong earthquakes with magnitude 8.7 and 8.5 on December 26,2004 and March 29, 2005 recorded at Jiaji well, Qionghai, Hainan were analyzed, the features of the infrequent ＂step＂ changes of well water level after the two earthquakes were also analyzed and the mechanism of the ＂step change＂ of well water level was discussed. Then the high-sample-rate digital observation data of seismically-induced water level fluctuations of the Sumatra-Andaman strong earthquakes with magnitude 8.7 and 8.5 recorded at Nanbin well, Sanya and Tanniu well, Wenchang were analyzed. The results suggest that the dominant period of the seismic well water level fluctuation in all three wells was comparatively accordant, the amplitudes of seismic water level fluctuation of the same earthquake in different wells were clearly different, the time duration of seismic water level fluctuations of different earthquakes at the same well was also clearly different.