The climate regime shift over the Pacific during 1996/1997

A climate regime shift (CRS) in the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) pattern was identified in 1996/1997. This decadal SST change is characterized by a warming over the equatorial western Pacific (EWP) and mid-latitude North and South Pacific and a cooling in the equatorial central Pacific (ECP). The large-scale atmospheric circulation change associated with this CRS exhibits a pair of low-level anticyclonic (cyclonic) gyres off the EWP (ECP) and a zonal-vertical overturning circulation anomaly along the equator. Both the empirical orthogonal function and singular vector decomposition analyses indicate that the CRS signal in 1996/1997 is robust. A mixed layer heat budget analysis suggests that the abrupt change of SST in the EWP and ECP is attributed to different physical processes. The abrupt warming over the EWP was initiated by a short wave radiation (SWR) anomaly in association with a preceding warming in the ECP. The cooling in the ECP happened about 6 months later than that of the EWP and was primarily attributed to anomalous oceanic zonal and vertical temperature advections.     

The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism

The influence of ENSO on the summer climate change in China and its mechanism from the observed data is discussed. It is discovered that in the developing stage of ENSO, the SST in the western tropical Pacific is colder in summer, the convective activities may be weak around the South China Sea and the Philippines. As a consequence, the subtropical high shifted southward. Therefore, a drought may be caused in the Indo-China peninsula and in the South China. Moreover, in midsummer the subtropical high is weak over the Yangtze River valley and Huaihe River valley, and the flood may be caused in the area from the Yangtze River valley to Huaihe River valley. On the contrary, in the decaying stage of ENSO, the convective activities may be strong around the Philippines, and the subtropical high shifted northward, a drought may be caused in the Yangtze River valley and Huaihe River valley.     

海温异常对东亚夏季风影响机理的研究进展

利用湖北省梅雨监测资料、国家气候中心新百项指数和NCEP/NCAR环流资料,分析了2020年湖北梅雨异常特征及其成因。结果表明：（1）2020年湖北梅雨持续时间异常长,为54 d,仅次于1996年;梅雨量异常多、强度强、雨日率大,均为1961年以来第1位。（2）高空西风急流、副热带高压、夏季风系统的冬夏调整季节性进程早,是造成湖北入梅早的主要原因。西风急流和副热带高压在7月下旬北跳,较常年时间偏晚,导致了出梅晚。入梅早、出梅晚,梅雨持续时间异常长。（3）在前冬El Niño事件、春夏热带印度洋海温偏暖和北大西洋三极子负位相的共同影响下,欧亚中高纬经向环流发展,冷空气活跃,副热带高压强且位置稳定,西侧水汽输送强,冷暖气流在长江中下游交汇,造成湖北省梅雨量异常偏多。

     

The influences of interannual stratification variability and wind stress forcing on ENSO before and after the 1976 climate shift

In order to understand the change in oceanic variability associated with the climate shift of the mid-1970s, we analyze the contribution of momentum forcing to the leading baroclinic modes over the tropical Pacific using Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA, version 2.0.2) for the period of 1958–1997. Specifically, we look at the statistical relationship between the wind projection coefficients and climate indices and attempt to provide a physical explanation for the observed changes. It is found that the wind stress projection coefficients according to the oceanic baroclinic modes are different in terms of their magnitude and phase in the tropical Pacific, reflecting a specific forcing associated with each mode before and after the 1976 climate shift. Compared to that before the 1970s, the first baroclinic mode is had a greater effect on the interannual sea surface temperature due to equatorial wave dynamics, and there was an increased delayed response of the second baroclinic mode variability to the interannual atmospheric forcing after the late 1970s. This reflects changes in ENSO feedback processes associated with the climate shift. Our analysis further indicates that, after the late 1970s, there was a decrease in the wind stress forcing projecting onto the Ekman layer, which is associated with increased mixed-layer depth. This result suggests that the changes in the ENSO properties before and after the late 1970s are largely associated with the changes in the way in which the wind stress forcing is dynamically projected onto the surface layer of the tropical Pacific Ocean over interannual timescales.     

The trade regime and the climate regime: institutional evolution and adaptation

This article addresses concerns that the multilateral trade regime centered in the WTO and the emerging climate regime may conflict in ways that could be damaging to either or both. The article discusses the institutional and diplomatic context of these concerns, and it identifies the kinds of issues that are in question. The analysis suggests that there are opportunities for win—win outcomes in the interactions of the two regimes, for instance in the possibility of reducing fossil fuel subsidies. However, there are also problematic areas where they intersect. A core issue—and as yet an unresolved one—is whether and how emission credit trading and other activities envisioned by the Kyoto Protocolwould be subject toWTOrules. The resolution of this issue will affect many other issues as well. Additional specific issues about the interactions of particular provisions inWTOagreements and theKyoto Protocol are analyzed in a subsequent companion article in Climate Policy.     

The trade regime and the climate regime: institutional evolution and adaptation

This article addresses concerns that the multilateral trade regime centered in the WTO and the emerging climate regime may conflict in ways that could be damaging to either or both. The article discusses the institutional and diplomatic context of these concerns, and it identifies the kinds of issues that are in question. The analysis suggests that there are opportunities for win–win outcomes in the interactions of the two regimes, for instance in the possibility of reducing fossil fuel subsidies. However, there are also problematic areas where they intersect. A core issue—and as yet an unresolved one—is whether and how emission credit trading and other activities envisioned by the Kyoto Protocol would be subject to WTO rules. The resolution of this issue will affect many other issues as well. Additional specific issues about the interactions of particular provisions in WTO agreements and the Kyoto Protocol are analyzed in a subsequent companion article in Climate Policy.     

ENSO nonlinearity in a warming climate

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is known as the strongest natural inter-annual climate signal, having widespread consequences on the global weather, climate, ecology and even on societies. Understanding ENSO variations in a changing climate is therefore of primordial interest to both the climate community and policy makers. In this study, we focus on the change in ENSO nonlinearity due to climate change. We first analysed high statistical moments of observed Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) timeseries of the tropical Pacific based on the measurement of the tails of their Probability Density Function (PDF). This allows defining relevant metrics for the change in nonlinearity observed over the last century. Based on these metrics, a zonal “see-saw” (oscillation) in nonlinearity patterns is highlighted that is associated with the change in El Niño characteristics observed in recent years. Taking advantage of the IPCC database and the different projection scenarios, it is showed that changes in El Niño statistics (or “flavour”) from a present-day climate to a warmer climate are associated with a significant change in nonlinearity patterns. In particular, in the twentieth century climate, the “conventional” eastern Pacific El Niño relates more to changes in nonlinearity than to changes in mean state whereas the central Pacific El Niño (or Modoki El Niño) is more sensitive to changes in mean state than to changes in nonlinearity. An opposite behaviour is found in a warmer climate, namely the decreasing nonlinearity in the eastern Pacific tends to make El Niño less frequent but more sensitive to mean state, whereas the increasing nonlinearity in the west tends to trigger Central Pacific El Niño more frequently. This suggests that the change in ENSO statistics due to climate change might result from changes in the zonal contrast of nonlinearity characteristics across the tropical Pacific.     

ENSO事件对川西高原区的气候影响

根据1951-2010年川西高原区7个气象站降水资料和气温资料以及60 a间发生的厄尔尼诺(El Ni?o)/拉尼娜(La Ni?a)事件,分析降水量、气温与El Ni?o /La Ni?a事件之间的关系,研究El Ni?o/La Ni?a事件对川西高原区气候的影响。结果表明：1951年以来川西高原区年降水量变化不大,呈现微弱的增加趋势,El Ni?o/La Ni?a 事件的发生对川西高原区年平均降水量有影响,El Ni?o事件影响下的年平均降水量减少,La Ni?a事件影响下的年平均降水量增加;El Ni?o年降水量低于正常年降水量39.14 mm,拉尼娜年降水量高于正常年降水量22.56 mm。1951年以来川西高原区年平均气温呈现微弱的波动上升趋势,川西高原区年平均气温与ENSO事件等级之间的相关性不显著。     

The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate: a 1,000-year climate modeling study

This study analyzes the atmospheric response to the combined Pacific interannual ENSO and decadal–interdecadal PDO variability, with a focus on the Pacific-North American (PNA) sector, using a 1,000-year long integration of the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled climate model. Both the tropospheric circulation and the North American temperature suggest an enhanced PNA-like climate response and impacts on North America when ENSO and PDO variability are in phase. The anomalies of the centers of action for the PNA-like pattern are significantly different from zero and the anomaly pattern is field significant. In association with the stationary wave anomalies, large stationary wave activity fluxes appear in the mid-high latitudes originating from the North Pacific and flowing downstream toward North America. There are significant Rossby wave source anomalies in the extratropical North Pacific and in the subtropical North Pacific. In addition, the axis of the Pacific storm track shifts southward with the positive PNA. Atmospheric heating anomalies associated with ENSO variability are confined primarily to the tropics. There is an anomalous heating center over the northeast Pacific, together with anomalies with the same polarity in the tropical Pacific, for the PDO variability. The in-phase combination of ENSO and PDO would in turn provide anomalous atmospheric energy transports towards North America from both the Tropical Pacific and the North Pacific, which tends to favor the occurrence of stationary wave anomalies and would lead to a PNA-like wave anomaly structure. The modeling results also confirm our analysis based on the observational record in the twentieth century.     

ENSO循环机理的一些新看法与气候异常

近几年来我国学者在对ENSO循环机理方面提出了一些新看法。研究表明 ,ENSO实质上是主要由东亚季风异常引起的赤道西太平洋异常纬向风所驱动的热带太平洋次表层海温异常的年际循环。ENSO的真正源在西太平洋暖池 ,暖池正 (负 )SOTA沿赤道温跃层 (斜温层 )东传到东太平洋 ,便导致ElNi no/LaNi na的爆发 ;在暖池正 (负 )SOTA沿赤道温跃层东传的同时 ,有负 (正 )SOTA沿 10°N和 10°S纬度带向西传播 ,从而构成SOTA的循环 ;而热带太平洋SOTA循环的驱动者是赤道西太平洋的异常纬向风。ENSO事件的发生 ,往往引起全球大气环流和世界许多地区的气候异常 ,导致一些国家和地区多雨洪涝 ,另外一些国家和地区高温少雨和严重干旱。     

ENSO循环机理的一些新看法与气候异常

近几年来我国学者在对ENSO循环机理方面提出了一些新看法.研究表明,ENSO实质上是主要由东亚季风异常引起的赤道西太平洋异常纬向风所驱动的热带太平洋次表层海温异常的年际循环.ENSO的真正源在西太平洋暖池,暖池正(负)SOTA沿赤道温跃层(斜温层)东传到东太平洋,便导致ElNino/La Nina的爆发;在暖池正(负)SOTA沿赤道温跃层东传的同时,有负(正)SOTA沿10°N和10°S纬度带向西传播,从而构成SOTA的循环;而热带太平洋SOTA循环的驱动者是赤道西太平洋的异常纬向风.ENSO事件的发生,往往引起全球大气环流和世界许多地区的气候异常,导致一些国家和地区多雨洪涝,另外一些国家和地区高温少雨和严重干旱.     

ENSO influence on Europe during the last centuries

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects climate not only in the Pacific region and the tropics, but also in the North Atlantic-European area. Studies based on twentieth-century data have found that El Niño events tend to be accompanied in late winter by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation index, low temperatures in northeastern Europe and a change in precipitation patterns. However, many questions are open, for example, concerning the stationarity of this relation. Here we study the relation between ENSO and European climate during the past 500 years based on statistically reconstructed ENSO indices, early instrumental station series, and reconstructed fields of surface air temperature, sea-level pressure, precipitation, and 500 hPa geopotential height. After removing years following tropical volcanic eruptions (which systematically mask the ENSO signal), we find a consistent and statistically significant ENSO signal in late winter and spring. The responses to El Niño and La Niña are close to symmetric. In agreement with studies using twentieth-century data only, the ENSO signal in precipitation is different in fall than in late winter. Moving correlation analyses confirm a stationary relationship between ENSO and late winter climate in Europe during the past 300 years. However, the ENSO signal is modulated significantly by the North Pacific climate. A multi-field cluster analysis for strong ENSO events during the past 300 years yields a dominant pair of clusters that is symmetric and represents the ‘classical’ ENSO effects on Europe.     

The influence of human activity in the Arctic on climate and climate impacts

Human activities in the Arctic are often mentioned as recipients of climate-change impacts. In this paper we consider the more complicated but more likely possibility that human activities themselves can interact with climate or environmental change in ways that either mitigate or exacerbate the human impacts. Although human activities in the Arctic are generally assumed to be modest, our analysis suggests that those activities may have larger influences on the arctic system than previously thought. Moreover, human influences could increase substantially in the near future. First, we illustrate how past human activities in the Arctic have combined with climatic variations to alter biophysical systems upon which fisheries and livestock depend. Second, we describe how current and future human activities could precipitate or affect the timing of major transitions in the arctic system. Past and future analyses both point to ways in which human activities in the Arctic can substantially influence the trajectory of arctic system change.     

有关副热带太平洋对ENSO影响研究的综述

ENSO（El Niño-Southern Oscillation）的发生发展既受到来自热带西太平洋纬向海气过程的影响,也受到来自副热带太平洋经向海气过程的影响。本文概述了副热带太平洋海气异常影响ENSO研究方面的科学背景及研究进展,综述了前人提出的副热带太平洋大气海洋异常通过经向风应力以及北太平洋/南太平洋经向模态,影响ENSO发展演变的途径及相关物理机制,总结了近些年观测资料分析及数值模拟研究工作所提出的新观点,并讨论了相关研究中的学术分歧及有待进一步研究的问题。     

On the relation between ENSO and global climate change

Summary Two lines of research into climate change and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) converge on the conclusion that changes in ENSO statistics occur as a response to global climate (temperature) fluctuations. One approach focuses on the statistics of temperature fluctuations interpreted within the framework of random walks. The second is based on the discovery of correlation between the recurrence frequency of El Niño and temperature change, while developing physical arguments to explain several phenomena associated with changes in El Niño frequency. Consideration of both perspectives leads to greater confidence in, and guidance for, the physical interpretation of the relationship between ENSO and global climate change. Topics considered include global dynamics of ENSO, ENSO triggers, and climate prediction and predictability.Revised November 14, 2002; accepted November 28, 2002 Published online: June 12, 2003     

Interim targets and the climate treaty regime

Abstract

We propose that international climate change policy would be strengthened by the development and adoption of targets for atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases 25–50 years in the future in addition to near- and long-term targets. ‘Interim concentration targets’, which could be accommodated under the current Convention/Protocol framework, would provide several advantages over the current focus on either the short term (e.g. Kyoto Protocol) or the long term (e.g. ultimate stabilization targets). Interim targets would help constrain rates of climate change (which are not sufficiently addressed by short- or long-term targets, even when paired together). They would also provide a means for keeping open the option of achieving a range of long-term goals while uncertainty (and political disagreement) over the appropriate goal is resolved. We substantiate a number of rationales for such an approach, discuss the use of interim targets in other contexts, and illustrate how such targets for climate change policy might be set.     

The seasonally-varying influence of ENSO on rainfall and tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines

An observational study covering the period 1950–2002 examines a seasonal reversal in the ENSO rainfall signal in the north-central Philippines. In boreal Summer of El Niño (La Niña) events, above (below) average rainfall typically occurs in this area. Rainfall anomalies of opposite sign develop across the country in the subsequent fall. This study investigates the seasonal evolution of the anomalous atmospheric circulation over the western North Pacific (WNP) during both El Niño and La Niña and places these features in the context of the large-scale evolution of ENSO events, including an analysis of changes in tropical cyclone activity affecting the Philippines. The results show that during boreal summer of El Niño (La Niña) events, a relatively narrow, zonally elongated band of enhanced (reduced) low-level westerlies develops across the WNP which serves to increase (decrease) the summer monsoon flow and moisture flux over the north-central Philippines and is associated with an increase (decrease) in the strength of the WNP monsoon trough via the anomalous relative vorticity. Tropical cyclone activity is shown to be enhanced (reduced) in the study region during boreal summer of El Niño (La Niña) events, which is related to the increase (decrease) of mid-level atmospheric moisture, as diagnosed using a genesis potential index. The subsequent evolution shows development of an anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the WNP in El Niño (La Niña) and the well-known tendency for below (above) average rainfall in the fall. Prolonged ENSO events also exhibit seasonal rainfall sign reversals in the Philippines with a similar evolution in atmospheric circulation.     

The asymmetric impacts of ENSO modoki on boreal winter climate over the Pacific and its rim

Climate Dynamics - The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Modoki phenomenon has a substantial influence on regional climate. In this study, the results derived from observational and...